KATOH Projects: New York Mets Prospects

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Yeaterday, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the New York Mets. In this companion piece, I look at that same New York farm system through the lens of my recently refined KATOH projection system. The Mets have the 23rd-best farm system in baseball according to KATOH.

There’s way more to prospect evaluation than just the stats, so if you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read Dan’s piece in addition to this one. KATOH has no idea how hard a pitcher throws, how good a hitter’s bat speed is, or what a player’s makeup is like. So it’s liable to miss big on players whose tools don’t line up with their performances. However, when paired with more scouting-based analyses, KATOH’s objectivity can be useful in identifying talented players who might be overlooked by the industry consensus or highly-touted prospects who might be over-hyped.

Below, I’ve grouped prospects into three groups: those who are forecast for two or more wins through their first six major-league seasons, those who receive a projection between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR though their first six seasons, and then any residual players who received Future Value (FV) grades of 45 or higher from Dan. Note that I generated forecasts only for players who accrued at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last season. Also note that the projections for players over a relatively small sample are less reliable, especially when those samples came in the low minors.

1. Gavin Cecchini, SS (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 5.8 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 45 FV

Back in 2012, which wasn’t all that long ago, the Mets popped Cecchini with the 12th pick in the draft. His prospect stock cratered, however, with underwhelming performances in the low minors. He redeemed himself last year, though, when he hit .317/.377/.442 as a 21-year-old shortstop in Double-A. Cecchini doesn’t offer a ton of power or speed, but his high-contact approach should allow him to succeed in the majors. It’s unclear whether he’ll be able to stick at shortstop, so I considered second basemen, third basemen and shortstops in my Mahalanobis comps.

Gavin Cecchini’s Mahalanobis Comps
Rank Name Proj. WAR Actual WAR
1 Chad Tracy 7.9 8.0
2 Tim Hummel 5.6 0.0
3 Wes Weger 4.0 0.0
4 Garrett Atkins 5.0 9.7
5 Neil Walker 6.1 13.5
6 Casey McGehee 2.7 4.5
7 Alex Cintron 3.3 2.2
8 Brennan King 4.6 0.0
9 Antone Williamson 4.4 0.0
10 Danny Klassen 5.4 0.1

2. Amed Rosario, SS (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 4.4 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 50 FV

Rosario held his own last year despite an aggressive assignment to High-A as a 19-year-old. Aside from his age, nothing in his stat line jumps off the page, though he doesn’t have any major flaws, either. Rosario didn’t hit any home runs, but managed 25 extra-base hits in 100 game sto go along with his acceptable contact numbers

3. Brandon Nimmo, OF (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 4.0 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 40 FV

A 2011 first-round pick, Nimmo’s been around for a while, yet he’s still just 22 years old. He split last season between Double-A and Triple-A, where he slashed .269/.362/.372. Nimmo lacks a stand-out skill, but his minor-league numbers have been solid across the board. Players who are solid across the board as 22-year-olds in the high minors aren’t easy to find.

4. Luis Carpio, SS (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 3.2 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 45 FV

Carpio spent his age-17 season in Rookie ball, where he hit .304/.372/.359 as a shortstop. Carpio might not have enough power to contend with high minors pitching, but excelled just about everywhere else. He’s far away, but will be worth monitoring this year. His projection could shoot up with a strong season in full-season ball.

5. Steven Matz, LHP (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 3.2 WAR (7.8 WAR after age adjustment)
Dan’s Grade: 65 FV

Matz split last season between Triple-A and the majors, and succeeded at both levels. In 90 Triple-A innings, he spun a 3.44 FIP on the strength of a 26% strikeout rate. In 2014, he dominated High-A and Double-A with a 2.61 FIP. Despite his excellent numbers, KATOH is down on Matz because of his age: he turns 25 in May, making him exceptionally old for a prospect.

However, KATOH doesn’t know that Matz sat out roughly three years with elbow troubles. While he’s quite old for a prospect, that has little to do with his abilities. If I set Matz’s 2015 age to 22 and run him through the KATOH machine, I get a projection of 7.8 WAR, which would have made him KATOH’s fifth-favorite pitching prospect. For your convenience, I generated statistical comps for both versions of Mr. Matz.

Steven Matz’s Mahalanobis Comps (Using Real Age)
Rank Name Proj. WAR Actual WAR
1 Arthur Rhodes 2.2 4.1
2 Dennis Tankersley 2.1 0.5
3 Anthony Reyes 4.3 1.2
4 Kurt Ainsworth 4.3 0.7
5 Tom Gorzelanny 4.2 6.6
6 Mike Judd 2.9 0.0
7 Matt Garza 5.1 13.9
8 Clay Buchholz 2.6 7.3
9 Matt Clement 3.9 13.1
10 Albie Lopez 2.1 3.0

Steven Matz’s Mahalanobis Comps (Age=22)
Rank Name Proj. WAR Actual WAR
1 Rich Harden 8.0 15.1
2 Mike Mussina 6.2 27.3
3 Terrell Wade 6.3 0.6
4 Carlos Carrasco 6.9 9.6
5 Frank Rodriguez 7.3 5.3
6 Lance Dickson 6.8 0.0
7 Arthur Rhodes 5.8 4.6
8 Jon Niese 5.6 12.2
9 Brian Barber 4.8 0.6
10 Dan Reichert 6.7 2.2

6. Matt Reynolds, SS (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.4 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 40 FV

Reynolds has yet to appear in a big-league game, but you might remember him as the guy whom the Mets added to their NLDS roster last fall to replace the injured Ruben Tejada. Reynolds spent the entirety of last season at Triple-A, where he hit .267/.319/.402 with 13 steals. He hit a much better .335/.395/.444 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2014, though a lot of that was fueled by an unsustainable .407 BABIP. Reynolds doesn’t have any major flaws in his game, but doesn’t have any major strengths, either. Since he’s already 25, he smells like a utility infielder.

*****

1-2 WAR Prospects
Rank Name Position KATOH WAR Dan’s FV
7 Dominic Smith 1B 1.9 45
8 Patrick Mazeika C 1.8 35+
9 Jhoan Urena 3B 1.3 40
10 Joel Huertas LHP 1.3 Unranked
11 Wulimer Becerra OF 1.2 45
12 Chris Flexen RHP 1.2 40
13 Robert Gsellman RHP 1.1 40
14 Seth Lugo RHP 1.1 45

Dominic Smith hit a strong .305/.354/.417 at High-A, but doesn’t have much power for a first baseman. His numbers were also significantly worse in 2014. Foremer 16th round pick Joel Huertas pitched to an excellent 2.47 FIP in Rookie Ball last year. The 6-foot-3 lefty struck out 27% of batters faced.

*****

Remaining 45 FV Prospects
Name Position KATOH WAR Dan’s FV
Luis Guillorme SS 0.9 45
Milton Ramos SS 0.3 45

Luis Guillorme is #15 on KATOH’s list. He hit .318/.391/.354 as a shortstop in full-season ball, but managed just a .036 ISO. As much as KATOH prioritizes contact ability, it’s also skeptical of players who hit for basically zero power at all. If you’ve been scouting stat lines for a while, you might be familiar with the Rexrode Threshold. That seems to apply here. Milton Ramos hit a solid .300/.329/.390 in Rookie ball, but relied on a .360 BABIP rather than a low strikeout rate.





Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

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somaholiday
8 years ago

What would Amed Rosario’s projected war be if he were one year older? younger?