KATOH’s Midseason 2017 Top-100

by
July 26, 2017

Vlad Guerrero Jr. appears among the top-three prospects by both versions of KATOH. (Photo: Joel Dinda)

With the trade deadline swiftly approaching, it’s time for some updated KATOH rankings. I know you’re not here to read about assumptions and caveats, so I’ll keep the non-list part of this article short and sweet.

  • For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, but due to their objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated.
  • KATOH+ incorporates Baseball America’s midseason top-100 list and Eric Longenhagen’s preseason FV grades for players excluded from BA’s list. Stats-only KATOH does not consider prospect rankings.
  • These projections account only for minor-league stats. While I’ve done work with college players, I have not yet attempted to merge college and minor-league data. These projections also do not account for any major-league performance.
  • All players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced in 2016 and/or 2017 were considered.
  • This isn’t “Chris Mitchell’s Top 100 List,” and certainly not “FanGraphs’ Top 100 List.” This is simply the output from my far-from-perfect statistical model.

KATOH+ Top-100 List
Rank Name Team Pos KATOH+
1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Blue Jays 3B 19.6
2 Gleyber Torres Yankees SS 16.3
3 Yoan Moncada White Sox 2B 15.4
4 Rafael Devers Red Sox 3B 15.3
5 Kyle Tucker Astros CF 14.9
6 Ozzie Albies Braves 2B 13.8
7 Ronald Acuna Braves CF 13.7
8 Willy Adames Rays SS 12.6
9 Alex Verdugo Dodgers CF 12.5
10 Amed Rosario Mets SS 12.1
11 Juan Soto Nationals RF 12.0
12 Luis Urias Padres SS 11.5
13 Triston McKenzie Indians RHP 11.4
14 Brendan Rodgers Rockies SS 11.3
15 Francisco Mejia Indians C 11.2
16 J.P. Crawford Phillies SS 11.0
17 Eloy Jimenez White Sox RF 10.9
18 Brent Honeywell Rays RHP 10.6
19 Jake Bauers Rays LF 10.5
20 Austin Meadows Pirates CF 10.1
21 Mike Soroka Braves RHP 9.7
22 Victor Robles Nationals CF 9.5
23 Bo Bichette Blue Jays SS 9.3
24 Willie Calhoun Dodgers 2B 8.9
25 Nick Senzel Reds 3B 8.8
26 Fernando Tatis Jr. Padres SS 8.5
27 Lewis Brinson Brewers CF 8.5
28 Dustin Fowler Yankees CF 8.2
29 Derek Fisher Astros CF 8.2
30 Rhys Hoskins Phillies 1B 8.1
31 Scott Kingery Phillies 2B 8.1
32 Forrest Whitley Astros RHP 8.1
33 Jack Flaherty Cardinals RHP 8.0
34 Alex Reyes Cardinals RHP 8.0
35 Clint Frazier Yankees LF 8.0
36 A.J. Puk Athletics LHP 7.8
37 Cristian Pache Braves CF 7.6
38 Carson Kelly Cardinals C 7.5
39 Matt Chapman Athletics 3B 7.5
40 Tyler Wade Yankees SS 7.2
41 Walker Buehler Dodgers RHP 7.1
42 Thomas Szapucki Mets LHP 7.0
43 Zach Granite Twins CF 6.8
44 Jakob Junis Royals RHP 6.8
45 Tyler O’Neill Cardinals LF 6.7
46 Yu-Cheng Chang Indians SS 6.7
47 Stephen Gonsalves Twins LHP 6.5
48 Ian Anderson Braves RHP 6.4
49 Nick Gordon Twins SS 6.3
50 Boog Powell Mariners CF 6.1
51 Leody Taveras Rangers CF 6.1
52 Jesus Sanchez Rays LF 6.0
53 Jose De Leon Rays RHP 5.9
54 Luke Weaver Cardinals RHP 5.9
55 Franklin Barreto Athletics SS 5.8
56 Mickey Moniak Phillies CF 5.7
57 Keibert Ruiz Dodgers C 5.6
58 Michael Kopech White Sox RHP 5.5
59 Sean Newcomb Braves LHP 5.4
60 Max Moroff Pirates 2B 5.4
61 Dominic Smith Mets 1B 5.3
62 Tyler Mahle Reds RHP 5.3
63 Joey Wentz Braves LHP 5.0
64 Jesse Winker Reds RF 5.0
65 Kolby Allard Braves LHP 4.9
66 Hunter Dozier Royals 3B 4.9
67 Lucas Giolito White Sox RHP 4.7
68 Matt Olson Athletics 1B 4.7
69 Garrett Stubbs Astros C 4.6
70 Jacob Faria Rays RHP 4.6
71 Brock Stewart Dodgers RHP 4.6
72 Francis Martes Astros RHP 4.6
73 Harrison Bader Cardinals CF 4.5
74 Dylan Cozens Phillies RF 4.5
75 David Paulino Astros RHP 4.5
76 Sixto Sanchez Phillies RHP 4.5
77 Mark Zagunis Cubs LF 4.5
78 Chance Sisco Orioles C 4.4
79 Mauricio Dubon Brewers SS 4.4
80 Austin Hays Orioles CF 4.4
81 Ryan Castellani Rockies RHP 4.3
82 Luiz Gohara Braves LHP 4.3
83 Jeimer Candelario Cubs 3B 4.3
84 Ke’Bryan Hayes Pirates 3B 4.2
85 Jake Rogers Astros C 4.1
86 Nick Neidert Mariners RHP 4.1
87 Yairo Munoz Athletics 3B 4.1
88 Cole Tucker Pirates SS 4.1
89 Ryan McMahon Rockies 1B 4.0
90 Brandon Nimmo Mets CF 4.0
91 Victor Caratini Cubs C 3.9
92 Nicky Lopez Royals SS 3.9
93 Teoscar Hernandez Astros RF 3.9
94 Dan Vogelbach Mariners 1B 3.9
95 Kevin Newman Pirates SS 3.8
96 Greg Allen Indians CF 3.8
97 Eric Skoglund Royals LHP 3.8
98 Jorge Mateo Yankees SS 3.8
99 Wilmer Font Dodgers RHP 3.7
100 Estevan Florial Yankees CF 3.7

 

Stats-Only KATOH Top-100 List
Rank Name Team Pos KATOH
1 Ronald Acuna Braves CF 13.1
2 Ozzie Albies Braves 2B 12.9
3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Blue Jays 3B 12.6
4 Kyle Tucker Astros CF 12.4
5 Alex Verdugo Dodgers CF 12.0
6 Rafael Devers Red Sox 3B 11.7
7 Jake Bauers Rays LF 11.4
8 Yu-Cheng Chang Indians SS 11.0
9 Gleyber Torres Yankees SS 10.4
10 Luis Urias Padres SS 10.4
11 J.P. Crawford Phillies SS 10.2
12 Fernando Tatis Jr. Padres SS 10.2
13 Triston McKenzie Indians RHP 9.5
14 Willy Adames Rays SS 9.4
15 Willie Calhoun Dodgers 2B 9.4
16 Zach Granite Twins CF 9.1
17 Mike Soroka Braves RHP 9.0
18 Dustin Fowler Yankees CF 9.0
19 Bo Bichette Blue Jays SS 8.8
20 Derek Fisher Astros CF 8.8
21 Brent Honeywell Rays RHP 8.7
22 Matt Chapman Athletics 3B 8.7
23 Rhys Hoskins Phillies 1B 8.6
24 Yordan Alvarez Astros LF 8.6
25 Juan Soto Nationals RF 8.5
26 Yoan Moncada White Sox 2B 8.4
27 Tyler Wade Yankees SS 8.4
28 Austin Meadows Pirates CF 8.3
29 Scott Kingery Phillies 2B 8.1
30 Francisco Mejia Indians C 8.0
31 Tyler O’Neill Cardinals LF 8.0
32 Max Moroff Pirates 2B 8.0
33 Forrest Whitley Astros RHP 7.9
34 Dylan Cozens Phillies RF 7.9
35 Jack Flaherty Cardinals RHP 7.8
36 Jakob Junis Royals RHP 7.8
37 Boog Powell Mariners CF 7.8
38 Stephen Gonsalves Twins LHP 7.5
39 Cristian Pache Braves CF 7.4
40 Amed Rosario Mets SS 7.2
41 Thomas Szapucki Mets LHP 7.2
42 Clint Frazier Yankees LF 7.1
43 Matt Olson Athletics 1B 7.1
44 Jordan Luplow Pirates LF 7.0
45 Luis Arraez Twins 2B 6.7
46 Carson Kelly Cardinals C 6.6
47 Eric Haase Indians C 6.6
48 Brendan Rodgers Rockies SS 6.5
49 Garrett Stubbs Astros C 6.5
50 A.J. Puk Athletics LHP 6.4
51 Keibert Ruiz Dodgers C 6.3
52 Alex Reyes Cardinals RHP 6.2
53 Lewis Brinson Brewers CF 6.1
54 Eloy Jimenez White Sox RF 6.0
55 Jesus Sanchez Rays LF 6.0
56 Austin Slater Giants CF 6.0
57 Victor Robles Nationals CF 5.9
58 Jose De Leon Rays RHP 5.9
59 Ryan Castellani Rockies RHP 5.9
60 Ian Rice Cubs C 5.9
61 Harrison Bader Cardinals CF 5.7
62 Jake Rogers Astros C 5.7
63 Yairo Munoz Athletics 3B 5.7
64 Mike Ford Yankees 1B 5.7
65 Hunter Dozier Royals 3B 5.6
66 Chris Flexen Mets RHP 5.6
67 Jacob Faria Rays RHP 5.5
68 Mauricio Dubon Brewers SS 5.5
69 Ryder Jones Giants 3B 5.5
70 Edwin Rios Dodgers 1B 5.5
71 Dalton Kelly Rays 1B 5.4
72 Luke Weaver Cardinals RHP 5.3
73 Victor Caratini Cubs C 5.3
74 Ian Anderson Braves RHP 5.2
75 Mark Zagunis Cubs LF 5.2
76 Isaac Paredes Cubs SS 5.2
77 Domingo Acevedo Yankees RHP 5.2
78 Franklin Barreto Athletics SS 5.1
79 Tyler Mahle Reds RHP 5.1
80 Joey Wentz Braves LHP 5.1
81 Cedric Mullins Orioles CF 5.1
82 Domingo Leyba Diamondbacks SS 5.1
83 Danny Jansen Blue Jays C 5.1
84 David Paulino Astros RHP 5.0
85 Nicky Lopez Royals SS 5.0
86 Dominic Smith Mets 1B 4.9
87 Jesse Winker Reds RF 4.9
88 Brock Stewart Dodgers RHP 4.9
89 Nick Dini Royals C 4.9
90 Austin Hays Orioles CF 4.8
91 Cole Tucker Pirates SS 4.8
92 Brandon Nimmo Mets CF 4.8
93 Freddy Peralta Brewers RHP 4.8
94 Walker Buehler Dodgers RHP 4.7
95 Sean Newcomb Braves LHP 4.7
96 Teoscar Hernandez Astros RF 4.7
97 Dan Vogelbach Mariners 1B 4.7
98 Wilmer Font Dodgers RHP 4.7
99 Zack Littell Yankees RHP 4.7
100 Luiz Gohara Braves LHP 4.6





 

Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

147 Comments
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Jim Melichar
6 years ago

Chris, do you have a sightline to Jhailyn Ortiz? I’ve been following his impressive play as one of the youngest players in his league.

2
Chris Mitchellmember
6 years ago
Reply to  Jim Melichar

1.6 KATOH, 1.3 KATOH+. Lots of Ks, already a RF, and obviously very far from the big leagues. The small sample also mutes his projection.

16
Jim Melichar
6 years ago
Reply to  Chris Mitchell

Thanks Chris.

5