KATOH’s Midseason 2017 Top-100
Vlad Guerrero Jr. appears among the top-three prospects by both versions of KATOH. (Photo: Joel Dinda)
With the trade deadline swiftly approaching, it’s time for some updated KATOH rankings. I know you’re not here to read about assumptions and caveats, so I’ll keep the non-list part of this article short and sweet.
- For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, but due to their objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated.
- KATOH+ incorporates Baseball America’s midseason top-100 list and Eric Longenhagen’s preseason FV grades for players excluded from BA’s list. Stats-only KATOH does not consider prospect rankings.
- These projections account only for minor-league stats. While I’ve done work with college players, I have not yet attempted to merge college and minor-league data. These projections also do not account for any major-league performance.
- All players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced in 2016 and/or 2017 were considered.
- This isn’t “Chris Mitchell’s Top 100 List,” and certainly not “FanGraphs’ Top 100 List.” This is simply the output from my far-from-perfect statistical model.
KATOH+ Top-100 List
| Rank | Name | Team | Pos | KATOH+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Blue Jays | 3B | 19.6 |
| 2 | Gleyber Torres | Yankees | SS | 16.3 |
| 3 | Yoan Moncada | White Sox | 2B | 15.4 |
| 4 | Rafael Devers | Red Sox | 3B | 15.3 |
| 5 | Kyle Tucker | Astros | CF | 14.9 |
| 6 | Ozzie Albies | Braves | 2B | 13.8 |
| 7 | Ronald Acuna | Braves | CF | 13.7 |
| 8 | Willy Adames | Rays | SS | 12.6 |
| 9 | Alex Verdugo | Dodgers | CF | 12.5 |
| 10 | Amed Rosario | Mets | SS | 12.1 |
| 11 | Juan Soto | Nationals | RF | 12.0 |
| 12 | Luis Urias | Padres | SS | 11.5 |
| 13 | Triston McKenzie | Indians | RHP | 11.4 |
| 14 | Brendan Rodgers | Rockies | SS | 11.3 |
| 15 | Francisco Mejia | Indians | C | 11.2 |
| 16 | J.P. Crawford | Phillies | SS | 11.0 |
| 17 | Eloy Jimenez | White Sox | RF | 10.9 |
| 18 | Brent Honeywell | Rays | RHP | 10.6 |
| 19 | Jake Bauers | Rays | LF | 10.5 |
| 20 | Austin Meadows | Pirates | CF | 10.1 |
| 21 | Mike Soroka | Braves | RHP | 9.7 |
| 22 | Victor Robles | Nationals | CF | 9.5 |
| 23 | Bo Bichette | Blue Jays | SS | 9.3 |
| 24 | Willie Calhoun | Dodgers | 2B | 8.9 |
| 25 | Nick Senzel | Reds | 3B | 8.8 |
| 26 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Padres | SS | 8.5 |
| 27 | Lewis Brinson | Brewers | CF | 8.5 |
| 28 | Dustin Fowler | Yankees | CF | 8.2 |
| 29 | Derek Fisher | Astros | CF | 8.2 |
| 30 | Rhys Hoskins | Phillies | 1B | 8.1 |
| 31 | Scott Kingery | Phillies | 2B | 8.1 |
| 32 | Forrest Whitley | Astros | RHP | 8.1 |
| 33 | Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | RHP | 8.0 |
| 34 | Alex Reyes | Cardinals | RHP | 8.0 |
| 35 | Clint Frazier | Yankees | LF | 8.0 |
| 36 | A.J. Puk | Athletics | LHP | 7.8 |
| 37 | Cristian Pache | Braves | CF | 7.6 |
| 38 | Carson Kelly | Cardinals | C | 7.5 |
| 39 | Matt Chapman | Athletics | 3B | 7.5 |
| 40 | Tyler Wade | Yankees | SS | 7.2 |
| 41 | Walker Buehler | Dodgers | RHP | 7.1 |
| 42 | Thomas Szapucki | Mets | LHP | 7.0 |
| 43 | Zach Granite | Twins | CF | 6.8 |
| 44 | Jakob Junis | Royals | RHP | 6.8 |
| 45 | Tyler O’Neill | Cardinals | LF | 6.7 |
| 46 | Yu-Cheng Chang | Indians | SS | 6.7 |
| 47 | Stephen Gonsalves | Twins | LHP | 6.5 |
| 48 | Ian Anderson | Braves | RHP | 6.4 |
| 49 | Nick Gordon | Twins | SS | 6.3 |
| 50 | Boog Powell | Mariners | CF | 6.1 |
| 51 | Leody Taveras | Rangers | CF | 6.1 |
| 52 | Jesus Sanchez | Rays | LF | 6.0 |
| 53 | Jose De Leon | Rays | RHP | 5.9 |
| 54 | Luke Weaver | Cardinals | RHP | 5.9 |
| 55 | Franklin Barreto | Athletics | SS | 5.8 |
| 56 | Mickey Moniak | Phillies | CF | 5.7 |
| 57 | Keibert Ruiz | Dodgers | C | 5.6 |
| 58 | Michael Kopech | White Sox | RHP | 5.5 |
| 59 | Sean Newcomb | Braves | LHP | 5.4 |
| 60 | Max Moroff | Pirates | 2B | 5.4 |
| 61 | Dominic Smith | Mets | 1B | 5.3 |
| 62 | Tyler Mahle | Reds | RHP | 5.3 |
| 63 | Joey Wentz | Braves | LHP | 5.0 |
| 64 | Jesse Winker | Reds | RF | 5.0 |
| 65 | Kolby Allard | Braves | LHP | 4.9 |
| 66 | Hunter Dozier | Royals | 3B | 4.9 |
| 67 | Lucas Giolito | White Sox | RHP | 4.7 |
| 68 | Matt Olson | Athletics | 1B | 4.7 |
| 69 | Garrett Stubbs | Astros | C | 4.6 |
| 70 | Jacob Faria | Rays | RHP | 4.6 |
| 71 | Brock Stewart | Dodgers | RHP | 4.6 |
| 72 | Francis Martes | Astros | RHP | 4.6 |
| 73 | Harrison Bader | Cardinals | CF | 4.5 |
| 74 | Dylan Cozens | Phillies | RF | 4.5 |
| 75 | David Paulino | Astros | RHP | 4.5 |
| 76 | Sixto Sanchez | Phillies | RHP | 4.5 |
| 77 | Mark Zagunis | Cubs | LF | 4.5 |
| 78 | Chance Sisco | Orioles | C | 4.4 |
| 79 | Mauricio Dubon | Brewers | SS | 4.4 |
| 80 | Austin Hays | Orioles | CF | 4.4 |
| 81 | Ryan Castellani | Rockies | RHP | 4.3 |
| 82 | Luiz Gohara | Braves | LHP | 4.3 |
| 83 | Jeimer Candelario | Cubs | 3B | 4.3 |
| 84 | Ke’Bryan Hayes | Pirates | 3B | 4.2 |
| 85 | Jake Rogers | Astros | C | 4.1 |
| 86 | Nick Neidert | Mariners | RHP | 4.1 |
| 87 | Yairo Munoz | Athletics | 3B | 4.1 |
| 88 | Cole Tucker | Pirates | SS | 4.1 |
| 89 | Ryan McMahon | Rockies | 1B | 4.0 |
| 90 | Brandon Nimmo | Mets | CF | 4.0 |
| 91 | Victor Caratini | Cubs | C | 3.9 |
| 92 | Nicky Lopez | Royals | SS | 3.9 |
| 93 | Teoscar Hernandez | Astros | RF | 3.9 |
| 94 | Dan Vogelbach | Mariners | 1B | 3.9 |
| 95 | Kevin Newman | Pirates | SS | 3.8 |
| 96 | Greg Allen | Indians | CF | 3.8 |
| 97 | Eric Skoglund | Royals | LHP | 3.8 |
| 98 | Jorge Mateo | Yankees | SS | 3.8 |
| 99 | Wilmer Font | Dodgers | RHP | 3.7 |
| 100 | Estevan Florial | Yankees | CF | 3.7 |
Stats-Only KATOH Top-100 List
| Rank | Name | Team | Pos | KATOH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ronald Acuna | Braves | CF | 13.1 |
| 2 | Ozzie Albies | Braves | 2B | 12.9 |
| 3 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Blue Jays | 3B | 12.6 |
| 4 | Kyle Tucker | Astros | CF | 12.4 |
| 5 | Alex Verdugo | Dodgers | CF | 12.0 |
| 6 | Rafael Devers | Red Sox | 3B | 11.7 |
| 7 | Jake Bauers | Rays | LF | 11.4 |
| 8 | Yu-Cheng Chang | Indians | SS | 11.0 |
| 9 | Gleyber Torres | Yankees | SS | 10.4 |
| 10 | Luis Urias | Padres | SS | 10.4 |
| 11 | J.P. Crawford | Phillies | SS | 10.2 |
| 12 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Padres | SS | 10.2 |
| 13 | Triston McKenzie | Indians | RHP | 9.5 |
| 14 | Willy Adames | Rays | SS | 9.4 |
| 15 | Willie Calhoun | Dodgers | 2B | 9.4 |
| 16 | Zach Granite | Twins | CF | 9.1 |
| 17 | Mike Soroka | Braves | RHP | 9.0 |
| 18 | Dustin Fowler | Yankees | CF | 9.0 |
| 19 | Bo Bichette | Blue Jays | SS | 8.8 |
| 20 | Derek Fisher | Astros | CF | 8.8 |
| 21 | Brent Honeywell | Rays | RHP | 8.7 |
| 22 | Matt Chapman | Athletics | 3B | 8.7 |
| 23 | Rhys Hoskins | Phillies | 1B | 8.6 |
| 24 | Yordan Alvarez | Astros | LF | 8.6 |
| 25 | Juan Soto | Nationals | RF | 8.5 |
| 26 | Yoan Moncada | White Sox | 2B | 8.4 |
| 27 | Tyler Wade | Yankees | SS | 8.4 |
| 28 | Austin Meadows | Pirates | CF | 8.3 |
| 29 | Scott Kingery | Phillies | 2B | 8.1 |
| 30 | Francisco Mejia | Indians | C | 8.0 |
| 31 | Tyler O’Neill | Cardinals | LF | 8.0 |
| 32 | Max Moroff | Pirates | 2B | 8.0 |
| 33 | Forrest Whitley | Astros | RHP | 7.9 |
| 34 | Dylan Cozens | Phillies | RF | 7.9 |
| 35 | Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | RHP | 7.8 |
| 36 | Jakob Junis | Royals | RHP | 7.8 |
| 37 | Boog Powell | Mariners | CF | 7.8 |
| 38 | Stephen Gonsalves | Twins | LHP | 7.5 |
| 39 | Cristian Pache | Braves | CF | 7.4 |
| 40 | Amed Rosario | Mets | SS | 7.2 |
| 41 | Thomas Szapucki | Mets | LHP | 7.2 |
| 42 | Clint Frazier | Yankees | LF | 7.1 |
| 43 | Matt Olson | Athletics | 1B | 7.1 |
| 44 | Jordan Luplow | Pirates | LF | 7.0 |
| 45 | Luis Arraez | Twins | 2B | 6.7 |
| 46 | Carson Kelly | Cardinals | C | 6.6 |
| 47 | Eric Haase | Indians | C | 6.6 |
| 48 | Brendan Rodgers | Rockies | SS | 6.5 |
| 49 | Garrett Stubbs | Astros | C | 6.5 |
| 50 | A.J. Puk | Athletics | LHP | 6.4 |
| 51 | Keibert Ruiz | Dodgers | C | 6.3 |
| 52 | Alex Reyes | Cardinals | RHP | 6.2 |
| 53 | Lewis Brinson | Brewers | CF | 6.1 |
| 54 | Eloy Jimenez | White Sox | RF | 6.0 |
| 55 | Jesus Sanchez | Rays | LF | 6.0 |
| 56 | Austin Slater | Giants | CF | 6.0 |
| 57 | Victor Robles | Nationals | CF | 5.9 |
| 58 | Jose De Leon | Rays | RHP | 5.9 |
| 59 | Ryan Castellani | Rockies | RHP | 5.9 |
| 60 | Ian Rice | Cubs | C | 5.9 |
| 61 | Harrison Bader | Cardinals | CF | 5.7 |
| 62 | Jake Rogers | Astros | C | 5.7 |
| 63 | Yairo Munoz | Athletics | 3B | 5.7 |
| 64 | Mike Ford | Yankees | 1B | 5.7 |
| 65 | Hunter Dozier | Royals | 3B | 5.6 |
| 66 | Chris Flexen | Mets | RHP | 5.6 |
| 67 | Jacob Faria | Rays | RHP | 5.5 |
| 68 | Mauricio Dubon | Brewers | SS | 5.5 |
| 69 | Ryder Jones | Giants | 3B | 5.5 |
| 70 | Edwin Rios | Dodgers | 1B | 5.5 |
| 71 | Dalton Kelly | Rays | 1B | 5.4 |
| 72 | Luke Weaver | Cardinals | RHP | 5.3 |
| 73 | Victor Caratini | Cubs | C | 5.3 |
| 74 | Ian Anderson | Braves | RHP | 5.2 |
| 75 | Mark Zagunis | Cubs | LF | 5.2 |
| 76 | Isaac Paredes | Cubs | SS | 5.2 |
| 77 | Domingo Acevedo | Yankees | RHP | 5.2 |
| 78 | Franklin Barreto | Athletics | SS | 5.1 |
| 79 | Tyler Mahle | Reds | RHP | 5.1 |
| 80 | Joey Wentz | Braves | LHP | 5.1 |
| 81 | Cedric Mullins | Orioles | CF | 5.1 |
| 82 | Domingo Leyba | Diamondbacks | SS | 5.1 |
| 83 | Danny Jansen | Blue Jays | C | 5.1 |
| 84 | David Paulino | Astros | RHP | 5.0 |
| 85 | Nicky Lopez | Royals | SS | 5.0 |
| 86 | Dominic Smith | Mets | 1B | 4.9 |
| 87 | Jesse Winker | Reds | RF | 4.9 |
| 88 | Brock Stewart | Dodgers | RHP | 4.9 |
| 89 | Nick Dini | Royals | C | 4.9 |
| 90 | Austin Hays | Orioles | CF | 4.8 |
| 91 | Cole Tucker | Pirates | SS | 4.8 |
| 92 | Brandon Nimmo | Mets | CF | 4.8 |
| 93 | Freddy Peralta | Brewers | RHP | 4.8 |
| 94 | Walker Buehler | Dodgers | RHP | 4.7 |
| 95 | Sean Newcomb | Braves | LHP | 4.7 |
| 96 | Teoscar Hernandez | Astros | RF | 4.7 |
| 97 | Dan Vogelbach | Mariners | 1B | 4.7 |
| 98 | Wilmer Font | Dodgers | RHP | 4.7 |
| 99 | Zack Littell | Yankees | RHP | 4.7 |
| 100 | Luiz Gohara | Braves | LHP | 4.6 |
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
Chris, do you have a sightline to Jhailyn Ortiz? I’ve been following his impressive play as one of the youngest players in his league.
1.6 KATOH, 1.3 KATOH+. Lots of Ks, already a RF, and obviously very far from the big leagues. The small sample also mutes his projection.
Thanks Chris.
Weird list. Robles seems really low.
Yeah, compared to other outlets, he’s a bit low. Robles’ Ks have been up this year and his stat line has been helped by BABIP. Steals are also down. Plus he’s a little on the short side (6-foot even)
The K% is up slightly over last season, but 18.3% isn’t worrisome, especially considering that it has coincided with a sharp uptick in power. Robles has the tenth most doubles in High-A this year with 25 while adding 7 home runs, good for a 144 wRC+ as a kid who just turned 20 while playing plus defense in center field. I agree with southie that it’s hard to understand why Robles isn’t higher.
.345 BABIP for a guy with 7 speed isn’t crazy either.
Given that minor league BABIPs run higher than major league BABIPs, you wouldn’t expect anything lower than that for someone with his speed and quality of contact.
He’s probably one of my favorite prospects in baseball
I don’t think Chris mentioned babip because he thinks it’s unsustainable. But babip isn’t a very strong predictor of major league success, and this is especially true above A-ball. The more Robles’ batting line depends on babip, the less well he’s doing in categories with stronger correlations to major league WAR.
Based on these comments and his comments below regarding Yu-Cheng Chang, I think KATOH tries to standardize BABIPs in a way that penalizes prospects running high ones and gives extra credit to prospects running low ones. That might make sense for pitching prospects but doesn’t seem to be working for the batters.
Like I said, a .345 BABIP is pretty normal for a quality hitting prospect in the minor leagues. He also has “the tenth most doubles in High-A this year with 25 while adding 7 home runs” and 16 steals while playing plus defense in center field. Potomac doesn’t boost offensive numbers either, so the park factor correction wouldn’t be an issue here. I genuinely have no idea why Robles isn’t higher in KATOH.
KATOH doesn’t explicitly standardize BABIPs, but effectively does so (to a relatively small extent) by rewarding hits and punishing strikeouts (all this is done based on historical data). But as we know, not all BABIPs are created equal. I think the missing variable here is batted ball profile. Until recently, I did not have that data in a usable format.
.
wRC+ is not a relevant statistic when you have KATOH on hand. Projecting prospects isn’t about quantifying how much they’re doing to help their teams win now (wRC+), but about quantifying how much they’ll help big league teams if/once they get their by markers which may or may not correlate with wRC+.
I endorse everything GreekGodofGreek says. I also agree that Robles feels a bit low to me too.
I also love me some hanging periods… 😉
But yeah, guys, its a black box, wondering why some of the outputs are unexpected is the whole point. It doesn’t mean the black box itself is broken.
Especially since minor league wRC+ doesn’t even account for park factors!
Any reason why Chang appears so high? His stats are good but not great
Plays in a park that’s tough on righties with excellent SS defense. BABIP has also hurt his stats. Plus he’s young for his level
So KATOH attempts to predict individual defensive value? Somehow, I had though it made adjustments only based on position, not how well a player fielded that position(?)
It uses Clay Davenport’s defensive numbers for minor leaguers, although I haven’t been able to find out how Davenport calculates them.
Yes if anyone can I’d love that. I’ve tried hard before to no avail.
I’m also not sure. My guess is it’s something like DRS. But whatever the methodology, I’ve found them to be predictive of future MLB value.
Nice. Is there any easy way you can post offensive and defensive WAR in the list?
Chang’s low BABIP is legitimate, though. He’s one of the most extreme fly-ball hitters in the minor leagues, he hits a much higher than average percentage of infield flies, and he pulls almost all of his ground balls. Given the profile, I’m actually surprised that his BABIP isn’t slightly lower. I think this is one of those situations where your systematic adjustments are making someone look better as a prospect than they actually are, especially considering his 27.4% strikeout rate.
All good points. I have not yet worked GB and FB rates into the mix for hitters. Chang feels like the type of outlier who might break the current KATOH in this regard.
By the way, thanks for all of your feedback. I love it when people call out strange projections and ask me the tough questions. It holds me accountable and gives me ideas for future improvements. You’ve been pestering me for years and I think KATOH’s better for it 🙂
On this note, does anyone know how accurate batted ball profiles in the minors are? There tends to be some crazy numbers especially with regards to IFFB% and SwSt% numbers. Just curious, love that they’re available.
Don’t quote me on this. However, I think I remember that the MILB IFFB% includes any fly balls caught by an infielder whereas MLB IFFB% only includes flyballs literally in the infield. In other words, MLB IFFB% doesn’t include flyballs caught by infielders in the outfield.
Yeah, seeing what seem to be like league average 25% IFFB rates is a little jarring.
I’m relieved that you take it in the right spirit, as I know how I can come off. I am a big fan of your work and would like to see it become even better.
I’ll concede that the GB/FB/Pull/BABIP relationship might be part of why Chang is higher than you think he should be. I’m still trying to figure out how to layer in the batted ball data that I only recently got access to, and Chang is a weird outlier in that area. But I’ll note again that KATOH doesn’t explicitly normalize BABIP, it only does so to a small extent indirectly.
But let’s not let this one point of contention overshadow Chang’s entire profile. He’s still a SS with seemingly excellent defense who’s also hitting for a ton of power (in a pitchers park) as a 21-year-old at AA. Good fielding shortstops don’t need to hit much to be useful players, and there’s a a lot to like about his offensive profile once you get past the batting average. Even if he’s, say, Trevor Story, that’s an excellent outcome.
I hate to be that guy … but Alex Reyes is a RHP for the Cardinals, not a LHP for the A’s … at least not yet … do you know something I don’t know?????
Thanks!
KATOH is not a fan of Chance Sisco.
Strangely, KATOH was really into Sisco 2 years ago when nobody else was. But his K% keeps climbing, the power hasn’t come and his defense is terrible.
Yeah, I gotta think the Orioles think more of his defense than most in the industry, otherwise they would have moved him from behind the plate by now. As things stand he “should” be the Os starting catcher heading into spring training next year, maybe sooner if Castillo gets traded.
Well, his bat really wouldn’t play anywhere else as a regular, so it’s one of those situations where you have to cross your fingers and hope for the best.
Jake Bauers at #7 on STATS-only? Not sure what I’m missing there.
Tons of doubles and walks and otherwise solid across the board — decent power and speed, makes a good amount of contact. He’s also been very young for his levels (20 in AA, 21 in AAA).
I think KATOH is missing that he’s either a 1B only or dreadful COF defender
The metrics actually think he’s decent in the COF. Not too much of a stretch, I don’t think, considering he’s a 45 runner.
This is an awesome list. Many of my personal favorites are here, plus some fun new catching prospects I haven’t heard of (Ian Rice! Eric Haase! Nick Dini!).
One wonders why the Yankees won’t give Mike Ford a chance at first with a gaping hole there.
Any chance you do a count of how many each organization has in each version? Just from a quick scan, the Braves look like #1 with a bullet on the stats-only list, while the Astros are also up there…but I can only do so much tallying in my head.
Any reason why Gohara is so low? He’s carving up AA like a thanksgiving turkey, which he also is fond of carving.
A big part of it is that he’s been pitching in short outings. He’s averaging 4.1 innings per game, and only 18 batters faced per game.
The problem with using averages is that outliers have an inordinate effect, such as Gohara’s first three appearances after being promoted to Double-A where the Braves eased him into the new level by having him only pitch two innings for each. His median innings pitched is 5 and his median batters faced is 21, both of which are pretty normal for his level.
Why would anyone thumbs down an explanation of why?
Because it’s odd that average innings per start would be so strongly weighted. Even if the outliers didn’t make the averages misleading, would an inning less per game be valid reason to diminish his prospect status? Maybe, I genuinely don’t know, but I haven’t read anything indicating a correlation between average innings per minor league start and eventual major league success. That might be interesting to look at.
The main issue is that it means he’s only going through lineups twice, which inflates his stats.
Compared to major league pitchers, sure, but it’s pretty rare for a young pitching prospect to have a mean or median of 6+ innings per start in the minor leagues because of how protective organizations are at those levels. And if you’re a strikeout pitcher, you’re going to face even less due to the increased number of pitches per batter. I just haven’t seen anything demonstrating that working later into minor league games correlates strongly with future major league success.
I know you know this, but just so everyone’s clear: Everything that goes into KATOH is based on historical data points. So when I say KATOH penalizes players for X, it isn’t because I don’t like X or because I’m choosing to put too much weight on it. It is always because X is a variable in KATOH. And X only becomes a variable in KATOH because it definitively improves the model. And X is weighted as much as historical data says to weight it.
With the outing length in particular, it is true that few young prospects throw 6+ innings, but Gohara just happens to be below-average in that regard. Historically, with all else being equal, pitchers with shorter outings tend to do worse. I don’t think this is a controversial finding at all, since those pitchers don’t have to deal with as much fatigue, TTO, they can air it out a little more, etc.
If you don’t buy this explanation for Gohara, do you buy it for relievers? If so, then Jonathan Holder and Joe Jimenez might have been top prospects, which is obviously absurd. So where do you draw the line? It’s a sliding scale, and Gohara just happens to be on the low-ish end (for SP). It doesn’t totally crater his rating, but it’s just one factor.
I wouldn’t even say KATOH is low on Gohara – it’s not far off from BA, despite KATOH’s general preference for hitters.
“but I haven’t read anything indicating a correlation between average innings per minor league start and eventual major league success. ”
FYI – Chris addresses this in another comment.
He mentioned that there is a correlation, but I haven’t seen or even heard about an actual study documenting such an effect. I would love to see one if it exists.
What I mean is, someone asked him a question, and he gave a straightforward answer. That you may disagree with his model input/weighting choices is a different matter.
“Why did the model give this result?”
“Because x and y are the things the model considers”
“THUMBS DOWN!”
What’s up with Max Moroff #60- listed as an LHP?
I initially forgot to pull teams and positions for the KATOH+ list, so I linked to them after the fact. A few got effed up somehow, but I think we’re good now.
Just letting you know I think Allard still listed as RHP.
Does KATOH or KATOH+ assume the player will remain at their listed position?
Not necessarily. It weighs the importance of their current position and defense at said position based on historical players. For example, shortstops generally project well because minor league SS tend to do produce in MLB, even if many of them don’t produce as a SS.
This is nothing if not a lot of fun. It also shines a light on Dave’s post about the risk in the CWS acquisitions. The Royals – widely believed to have a cellar of a farm system – double them up (4-2) in the stats-only KATOH.
I’d be interested in seeing how KATOH would have seen Guerrero, Sr. as a prospect (not sure if you can do that) and what the odds are that Jr. is actually better than Sr.?
Does KATOH include past injuries as an input? e.g. does KATOH know that Alex Reyes is recovering from Tommy John surgery or not? Thanks!
I wonder what Willie Calhouns trade value is. Yes hes below average defensively but i think its safe to say hes probably going to rake when he getd to the bigs.
Everyone seems to want Verdugo but LA seems reluctant to deal him. Whats the value of a top 10 milb hitter with no position?
Back when there were questions if Josh Bell could handle first, I wondered the same thing. If Calhoun can handle 2nd he’s obviously more valuable than Bell at first, but it seems like a longer shot. I wonder what Davenport’s numbers have for him.
Really, really bad: http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/CALHOUN19941104A.shtml
Holy hell.
and yet, he still garners defensive comps to J.J. Hardy and Robinson Cano…
Guerrero Jr is hyperlinked to his dad’s page…
KATOH is THAT high on him!
No Angels in either list- sad but not unexpected given state of farm system. Who was top ranked in the organization?
Jahmai Jones – 3.1 KATOH, 3.0 KATOH+
Really surprised that Nick Senzel didn’t make the stats only list. I guess he lacks the elite power or precociousness that projects especially well. Also a good reminder of just how many guys below the rating radar who are putting up promising numbers.
He came really close – 4.4. But yeah, non-elite power, non-elite K%. Also already 22, which isn’t particularly young for A+/AA (by top prospect standards).
I wonder sometimes about this with KATOH–if a college guy shows up and doesn’t start dominating right away, it’s really hard for KATOH to show him love. Is years of college included in the model? I wonder if there’s some complicated interaction between age and how long a prospect spent in college.
Players’ background is folded in. In general, college guys get a little boost over high schoolers who get a little boost over Caribbean players. Otherwise, KATOH would be even lower on college guys like Senzel who aren’t particularly young for their level.
Any padres close on either list? Obviously morejon/gore/Baez don’t have much data. But no quantrill/Espinoza is troubling on KATOH +
Both were pretty close on KATOH+:
Quantrill – 1.3/3.4
Espinoza – 2.0/3.1
Franchy wasn’t too far off stats-only – 3.8/1.8
It’s interesting that Brendan Rodgers went from being left off of the preseason KATOH and KATOH+ lists entirely to now being 48th and 14th respectively.
I imagine his power spike in AA mixed with his excellent K rate there did the trick.
Along with leaving Asheville. The main reason that KATOH hated Rodgers before this season was a brutal park factor adjustment against him since Asheville has one of the best offensive environments in the minor leagues.
I’m left to assume you have a list of players who were too good for this one (over 20 WAR) and that’s why Mountcastle isn’t here?
3.6 KATOH, 2.6 KATOH+
Come on, I thought it was funny.
I thought it was funny too, despite my robot-like response.
WILMER
Free the FONT
Great work…would be interesting to see who are the biggest climbers. Does Katoh take into account defense especially catcher defense and CSB% and maybe RF/9?
Please do not incorporate college stats. Only college stat i would use would be cape cod. metal vs wood bat is just different.
So it’s just a coincidence that most of the good current MLBers who were drafted out of college also dominated statistically in college?
And then there were all the people who dominate statistically in college and never make it out of A-ball, because metal vs. wood bat is just too different.
Right. So even though college stats have proven to be highly predictive, on average, we should just ignore them altogether because of metal bats?
college stats are not predictive. Otherwise everyone would draft the best proven hitters and not focus on hs. Also there are several RHP throwing low 80s that have sub 3 era. Is that a good prediction?
Adding College stats wont do anything but skew the katoh calculations. 1 full season of minor leagues ABs is the same as 3 seasons of College.
The only college correlation with hitting to professional is in the cape cod league because you cant hide there. It is almost a guarantee, if you cant hit in the cape, then you cant hit in professional ball.
I can give you 1000s of examples, but look no further then Zach Collins. Hit .350 every year at miami with metal bat, drafted in the teens last year. He then gets invited to Cape Cod and cant even hit his body weight, ends up going home early because it was effecting his draft status because mlb teams weigh cape cod stats over college teams stats.
To this day, Zach collins still hasnt it above his body weight in professional ball. Everyone is wondering wow, why cant he hit….when really the it was staring everyone in the face with his cape stats if you looked hard enough.
Finding good college players who did not pan out does not mean college stats are meaningless. That’s like saying all baseball projections are useless because you can list thousands that have not worked out.
Obviously, you’ve never done any research on the topic. Fortunately, Crawford has, and it shows that college stats are useful:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/katoh-goes-to-college-projecting-college-hitters/
If you think MLB teams care about batting average in college, you really don’t understand how player projection systems work.
BTW, you can’t even get the details correct in your n=1 story. Collins’ BA was exactly .300 (not .350) prior to going to the Cape. Once at the Cape, he had a grand total of 13 AB. I’m sure those four games held a ton of weight with MLB GMs!
Now he has a .798 career OPS in the minors (15 HR with an 18% BB rate this season), but all you can see is his low batting average. I don’t even like Collins as a prospect, but it’s humorous that you picked a guy who hurts your argument.
People like you are the very reason projection systems like KATOH exist — to cut through outdated biases and let the data dictate what is useful in predicting future outcomes.
well your team can keep drafting from metal bat stats and missing….and my team will use cape stats and lets see who does better. Whats funny in that link you sent, what does it show? Did you even read it? It shows that dansby swanson was best hitter…well guess what mijo, he just got demoted yesterday because he cant hit. Do you want me to go down the list with you one by one and show you how many of those havent performed in the MLB in accordance to where they got drafted?
why do teams miss 40-50% of the time when drafting 1st rounders? Probably because they think like you and say “man he sure is raking in the SEC we got TO get him”. METAL BATS DO NOT TRANSLATE!
Nice to see Keibert Ruiz getting some love. Seems to be way under the radar elsewhere considering his position, his accomplishments at his age.
I know why scouts don’t care for Rhys Hoskins, but why is KATOH so low on him? The projections peg him at 115 WRC+.
I’d argue KATOH’s top-30 ranking isn’t low at all. He isn’t a tippy-top prospect because he’s a 1B who’s already 24 and was helped by his ballpark last year.
KATOH+ loves Keibert Ruiz, but he has never made a Top 100 list by any publication
No Kyle Lewis?
He missed the PA cutoff due to his injuries.
The Cards wouldn’t trade Alex Reyes for any of the top 100 straight up!
Yes they would. Don’t be such an obvious homer! You gotta be sly.
Anyway, I’m sure Reyes dropped a bit because he contributed 0.0 IP in a system that uses player stats to help project future value. If Reyes comes back healthy next year, he’ll be back to being a top-5 RHP prospect. No worries.
Who?
Without putting much thought into it, Gleyber Torres or any of the few elite near-MLB shortstops. St. Louis, with their ten or so 45-55 FV pitchers, would LOVE to swap an elite arm for an elite positional guy.
I think your point is kind of true — St. Louis wouldn’t trade Reyes for many of the guys ahead of him on the list. But this isn’t a trade value list, so the point isn’t so poignant.
The only position the Red Birds might be tempted to exchange Reyes for is a left-handed hitting power outfielder, since they don’t have anyone in their system that fits that description.
Remember this about Reyes, he pitched for the Cards down the stretch in 2016, against fierce competition, and excelled. Others on the list don’t have that on their resumes.
Do you know what else Amed Rosario and Gleyber Torres don’t “have on their resumes”?
Tommy John Surgery on their throwing elbows.
Did I read that correctly that KATOH penalizes pitchers for short outings? I understand the initial negative implications behind it, but it sounds like this naturally under values teams like the Astros who piggy-back starters below AAA to have as many starter candidates as possible while also slowly building up workloads.
Historical data shows that, given two pitchers with identical stat lines, the one who pitched in longer outings is the better prospect. That’s how KATOH differentiates between starters, relievers, swing men, long relievers, etc. If KATOH didn’t penalize pitchers for shorter outings, they would unfairly benefit from better numbers derived from all the things that give relievers better numbers than starters (not facing the order a second/third time, less fatigue, etc.)
Makes sense. Appreciate it
this is a metric that is severly underrated even at the mlb level, too.
Love this list and the methodology behind it.
Do you have projections available for 2018 draft-eligible college players, or is that a work in progress?
I do. Not planning to do anything with it until the offseason after I’ve integrated Cape stats. But happy to take any requests.
Tatis Jr. at 12! Amazing that BA didn’t rank him higher. Also happy to see Danny Jansen making the list here!
Chris, have you ever applied your algorithms to past seasons in an attempt to define how predictive KATOH is? Apologies if this has been done and I missed it.
I haven’t done a rigorous study comparing it to BA lists or anything like that. I plan to soon, however.
The Braves have absolutely skyrocketed up the KATOH only list. . . Pre-season, it had Albies (8), Dansby (17) and Rio Ruiz (68).
Now it has: Acuna (1), Albies (2), Soroka (17), Pache (39), Anderson (74), Wentz (80), Newcomb (95), and Gohara (100).
Is this just coincidental good luck or something indicative of an organizational philosophy? This seems like a tremendous amount of progress in just half a season. . .
Maybe something to do with the aggressive promotions? Though, Allard, perhaps the most impressive, is conspicuously absent from the KATOH only list (scouts may be more impressed with left-handedness than the computers, I assume).
It probably doesn’t hurt that Kiley McDaniels left Fangraphs to work for the Braves
The applied plate appearance limits really helped this list IMO. In the past there were way too many low level (A- and R) kids being ranked to high. By limiting to 200, all the short season leagues go away and we get a much improved list that makes better use of the KATOH formula. Nice work.
The PA limit is the same is its always been, its just too soon for short-season guys to get there. And (other than Vlad) the short-season guys who made it over the winter have been exposed this year and have fallen off.
The short season names can sometimes be a little weird, but KATOH also identified Alex Verdugo, Ozzie Albies, Gleyber Torres and Luis Urias as Rookie Ballers in 2014 long before anyone else. (http://www.hardballtimes.com/katoh-forecasting-a-hitters-major-league-performance-with-minor-league-stats/)
Is there regression built into the formula such that a player with 400 PA will rank higher than an identical player with 200 PA?
Yep, all stats are regressed based on Russell Carelton’s work on stabilization.
you nailed roberto osuna a few years back based on a tiny sample, too.
Walker Buehler seems lower here than most lists. I assume this is because his outings are short as the Dodgers try to manage his innings after TJS?
That’s part of it, and also because of the small sample in general. KATOH also dings him for being 22/23 at A+/AA. One could reasonably argue that isn’t entirely fair because of all the missed time.
Gotcha, thanks!
It’s interesting that Soto is higher than Jimenez now, given that Soto is basically replicating what Jimenez did last year. Or maybe there’s something else going on.
Soto’s doing it with a much lower K% and is basically two years younger.
Is there a fully downloadable list available anywhere?
Have you ever considered a retrospective KATOH rating of existing players? As a Giants fan, I would love to hear how players like Posey, Lincecum, Bumgarner, and Cain might have looked preMLB as prospects.
Where did Franchy Cordero fall on this list? Incredible AAA numbers at age 22. Are his MLB numbers dragging him down? (I see you answered already! Sorry!)
Possible to add age/level to the above tables?
It’s amazing how few top pitching prospects there are right now. It might be an all-time low.
The name I was surprised to see near the top of the lists, especially the stats only KATOH was J.P. Crawford.I am wondering how long it will be before he begins to slide down these lists. The hype can only last for so long before performance starts to count. I haven’t seen the glove but the offense just keeps getting worse and worse and……. All the other Phillies prospects get short changed for their accomplishments in Reading but he couldn’t even hit there.
Crawford hasn’t hit much lately, but he’s still a very good defensive SS holding his own offensively as a 22-year-old at Triple-A. Good defensive SS don’t necessarily need to hit a ton, and Crawford’s K% and BB% remain solid.
Actually, JP Crawford has been blistering this past month after recovering from a groin injury. After returning on June 20th, he has a .285/.385/.585 line with a 14% percent walk rate and 15 percent strikeout rate in 123 PAs. Obviously he’s not going to be an offensive juggernaut, but when you take his always great plate discipline numbers and his fielding capabilities in, his high KATOH ranking makes sense.
Do LHBs get dinged for the higher probability that they will become platoon players?
Handedness is taken into account, but I’ve found it only matters marginally and only for players at the lower levels.
I assume actual minor league L/R splits are not used in your evaluation, right?
Would it be possible to get confidence intervals on the projected WARs? In theory it would be nice in order to reflect the volatility/risk of the different prospects. Nice and feasible aren’t the same though, I understand.
Has Jose Siri risen a great deal from April from now, following his 30 some game hit streak?
Was curious to see Mauricio DuBon relatively high on both sets of lists. I’ve always thought of him as a guy that scouts love more than stats, and frankly his stats don’t really pop this year. Can you dig into those numbers to let us know what Katoh sees?
Thanks.
Solid defensive SS with a ton of steals who’s holding his own offensively as a 22yo at AA/AAA.
chris….have you thought about switching to Jim CAllis list of MLB Pipeline instead of Baseball Americas for the Katoh+? BA seems to be the worst one of the bunch.
#44 by stats, Jordan Luplow will make his debut on Friday. Hoping KATOH is right and scouts are wrong on him.
You should add a teams placement of a player on the 40 man roster as a driver. This would be best indicator of a teams view of a player. Sierra in St. Louis would be a good example. Stats are mediocre, low on prospect lists but all of a sudden he’s on the 40 man and getting cups of coffee in St. Louis
Was Yadier Alvarez close?