KATOH’s Most-Improved Hitting Prospects So Far
A couple of weeks ago, I looked at the 10 hitting prospects who had most improved their KATOH+ projections over the season’s first few weeks. Now that we have a more meaningful sample of games to analyze and a new Baseball America top-100 list baked in, I’m repeating that exercise. It’s still early in the season, but not too early to start identifying players who are performing better than they have in the past. A reminder: a player’s KATOH forecast denotes his projected WAR total over the first six seasons of his major-league career.
Juan Soto, OF, Washington (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 4.0
Current KATOH+ Projection: 11.2
Soto topped this list two weeks ago and has only built on that performance since, though he’s sidelined with an ankle injury for now. His line now sits at .360/.427/.523. Baseball America also recognized Soto’s excellence by ranking him No. 59 on their updated top-100, which also nudges up his projection. Soto possesses a rare combination of power and contact skills and is very young for his level.
Jesus Sanchez, OF, Tampa (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 0.5
Current KATOH+ Projection: 4.6
Sanchez also appears here for the second time in a row, thanks to his strong showing in Low-A. Few teenagers have the power to produce an ISO over .200 in full-season ball, let alone with decent strikeout and walk numbers. Scouts seem to be on board as well, as Baseball America placed him on their updated top 100 at No. 96. Sanchez’s overall offensive package is very appealing, even if he’s limited to a corner-outfield spot.
Andrew Knizner, C, St. Louis (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 1.5
Current KATOH+ Projection: 5.2
Knizner caught KATOH’s eye following his impressive showing in Rookie ball, where he hit .319/.423/.492 with a minuscule 9.5% strikeout rate. He’s been just as good at Low-A this year, hitting .306/.353/.409 with a 9% strikeout rate. Knizner’s been outstanding at the plate, though it remains to be seen if he’s a catcher long-term. Eric Longenhagen informed me he wasn’t viewed as a legit catching prospect in college and he moonlighted at third base, so perhaps a move down the spectrum is in order. Regardless, guys who can pair a single-digit strikeout rate with an ISO over .200 are rare.
Breyvic Valera, 2B, St. Louis (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 1.3
Current KATOH+ Projection: 4.6
As a 25-year-old who’s never played in the big leagues, Valeria isn’t really a prospect. KATOH’s always found him mildly interesting, though, and that interest has increased following his strong start in Triple-A. Valeria’s making more contact than ever and already has five triples to his name. Not bad for a second baseman.
Rafael Ortega, OF, San Diego (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 2.4
Current KATOH+ Projection: 5.4
Ortega is another nondescript Triple-A player in his mid-20s whom KATOH’s always kind of liked. He completely flopped in 200 plate appearances with the Angels last year, but is now hitting .294/.365/.451 in Triple-A with nine steals. He’s also walked more than he’s struck out.
Sebastian Elizalde, OF, Cincinnati (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 0.1
Current KATOH+ Projection: 2.9
Elizalde cracked Eric Longenhagen’s Reds list as a 40 FV after a strong performance in Double-A last year. He’s been even better in Triple-A so far, slashing .288/.366/.392 with three triples, which has caused KATOH to take notice. Most notably, he’s more than doubled his walk rate from last season while also striking out less and maintaining his power.
Mike Ohlman, C, Toronto (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 0.9
Current KATOH+ Projection: 3.3
Previously an organizational catcher with a touch of power, Ohlman has found new life with the Blue Jays this year. He hit .246/.388/.594 at Triple-A, which has earned him a promotion to the big club. His 33% strikeout rate is a cause for concern, but the power and walks lead KATOH to believe he belongs in the big leagues.
Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Philadelphia (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 3.9
Current KATOH+ Projection: 6.7
Hoskins made the All-KATOH Second Team in the preseason after he hit .281/.377/.566 in Double-A, although those numbers were surely helped by his home ballpark in Reading. But he’s kept right on mashing after a promotion to Triple-A this year, and his currently slashing .345/.432/.655. He’s cut six percentage points off his strikeout rate and has somehow hit for more power — though it’s been more of the doubles-power variety. The 24-year-old has run out of things to prove in the minors.
Cam Gibson, OF, Detroit (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 0.1
Current KATOH+ Projection: 2.9
A former fifth-round pick, Gibson flashed his speed last year by swiping 26 bags in Low-A. Unfortunately, as evidenced by his .221/.302/.330 line, he did little else. He’s repeating the level this year and has started to hit. He’s shaved nine points off his strikeout rate in the early going and has already matched last year’s home-run total. With a .274/.351/.496 batting line, Gibson seems to be growing into a speedy center fielder who can both hit and hit for power. Those can be quite valuable.
Luis Urias, IF, San Diego (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 5.4
Current KATOH+ Projection: 8.2
Urias has long been one of KATOH’s guys, but an increasing number non-KATOH entities have since taken notice. This season has been Urias’s best; he’s slashed .324/.419/.478 at Double-A with four steals. The shortstop also cracked Baseball America’s list for the first time, checking in at No. 57. Urias is still just 19, but now that he’s mastered Double-A, San Diego can’t be too far off.
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
Think Soto has increased his prospect status enough that he could be the centerpiece in the (seemingly inevitable) trade for relief help? I assume Robles is untouchable.
I don’t see why not. KATOH+ actually has him edging out Robles now (11.2 to 10.9). If anything, I wonder if the Nats might be hesitant to part with Soto for a reliever rental.
I agree, if anything he can be center piece of a deal with good reliever and another good piece
if ever a trade smelled like Larry Anderson for Jeff Bagwell it would be Juan Soto for some short term relief help. The Nationals would be crazy.
Not to say that Soto is going to be a Hall of Famer, but that kid can hit. I’m not giving him up for anything short of a relief ace that I have next year too.
Soto is a monster. He’s 18 years old! He and Vlad Jr–both of them are incredible so far.
Cam Gibson, son of Kirk Gibson
Cool, didn’t even realize that
I assume KATOH doesn’t love Alex Jackson’s K rate? What about the hurting Acuna is putting on AA pitching as a 19yo? Thanks as always for these, very interesting!
Alex Jackson also isn’t walking much. Acuna had terrible K% in A+
I’d also love to hear what KATOH says about Acuna, even if it is extremely SSS at AA
Yeah, the K rate is still an issue for Jackson and he still isn’t walking. So its just SSS power plus the move to C at this point. He’s up to 1.0 WAR from 0.2, though, which is an improvement.
Acuna just missed my arbitrary 200 PA cutoff for last year because he was hurt, so he wasn’t in the pre-season sample when I did the comparison. But he’s climbed from 9.0 to 10.4.
KATOH now have urias as a top 50 prospect?
Yup, KATOH+ has him at #31
Luis Urias could be starting in San Diego very soon with Erick Aybar hitting .218
I wouldn’t count on it, padres themselves realize he has a long way to go at SS defensively and they are in no rush
How much of Soto’s improvement is related to his BA prospect status?
A little less than 2/3 of it.
Any thoughts in looking at the batted ball stats to see if anything is statistically significant? For instance, Kyle Tucker has gone from 43% of batted balls being grounders to 32%. I know it is trendy for MLB players to get the ball in the air. Would assume improving in minors helps, but not sure if it is a big deal or not. His HR/FB is close to the same, but HRs have almost equaled last season with about a third the PAs.
It’s on my to-do list. Currently use them for pitchers, but haven’t tried with hitters yet.
Think Valera has the chops to be a good utility guy somewhere? He’s hit exactly three home runs in full-season ball, but I like the high contact, low strikeout profile, and he’s not awful at any position he’s played.
I think so. I expect he’ll find his way to the bigs one way or another this year.
I was expecting to see Ronald Acuna on this list given his blistering first week in AA …
A typo on Knizner’s triple slash line makes him look less impressive than he is. He’s currently at .313 / .358 / .539; the “ISO over .200” line makes it clear his slugging should be over .500 (or his BA around .200), but the 306/.353/.409 line doesn’t look like something that should raise expectations.