KATOH’s Top Undrafted College Players
On Friday, I published a post projecting the players taken on day one of the draft. On Saturday, I did the same for the players taken on day two. And yesterday, I did the same for those players selected on day three. Over 1,200 players were drafted across 40 rounds in this year’s draft. But KATOH still managed to find a few mildly interesting players who weren’t selected. Below, you’ll find the seven draft-eligible but undrafted players with the best projections. As a reminder, this analysis covers the following conferences: AAC, ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big West, Pac 12 and SEC. I expect a few of these guys will sign as undrafted free agents in the coming weeks.
*****
Anthony Papio, RSr., OF, Maryland
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 1.0
Papio had a solid season as a redshirt senior. I should note that his projection is partly due to a quirk with my model. The Big 10 model includes a variable that makes it slightly less harsh on older players. But since Papio’s the rare 23-year-old college player, it perhaps credits him a bit more than it should. Still, an .800 OPS with some speed in the Big 10 ain’t bad.
*****
Tom Marcinczyk, Jr., OF, Rutgers
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.5
Marinczyc’s an undersized outfielder who laced a bunch of doubles and triples against Big 10 pitching. He also did some damage with his legs by stealing 18 bags.
*****
Levi MaVorhis, Sr., RHP, Kansas State
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.3
MaVorhis allowed just 15 walks in 84 innings in Kansas State’s rotation. His 4.20 ERA is due to inflated home-run and BABIP figures, while his strikeout and walk numbers were on point. Not a bad performance against Big 12 hitters.
*****
Jake Placzek, Sr, IF, Nebraska
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.3
Placzek walked up a storm at Nebraska, while also hitting a fair amount of doubles. He’s still 21, making him younger than most college seniors.
*****
Zach Reks, Jr., OF, Kentucky
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.2
Reks walked more than he struck out against SEC pitchers, and also popped seven homers in 53 games.
*****
Parker Rigler, Jr., LHP, Kansas State
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.2
Like his teammate MaVorhis, Rigler posted solid strikeout and walk numbers, but was undone by the long ball.
*****
Elijah Sutherland, Sr., SS, North Carolina
Proj. WAR thru age-27: 0.2
Although he was a college senior, Sutherland doesn’t turn 21 until October according to The Baseball Cube. Considering he’s aged like a sophomore, his .232/.358/.378 showing in the SEC was somewhat encouraging. Of course, it’s also possible that Sutherland’s birthday is misreported. In which case, the projections would be different.
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
This is really fascinating. I’d love to know whether there were negative reports on these guys from scouting, etc. or whether they were just misses. Thanks for the great work.
Probably more along the lines of negative scouting reports. All of these players play in top conferences alongside players who were drafted, so they’ve definitely all been seen many times. Since I was more focused on the top players, I didn’t do any analysis on the lower conferences. That’s where I imagine some guys might be just missed.
Shameful confession: when I got to the first player listed as a senior, I thought, “Jeez, he has a son already?” Then I got to the next one and thought, “Two guys with sons?!” Then it hit me.
Hee. What did you think RSr was — Real Senior? You can see why teams decided to pass on the first draft-eligible college grandpa. He’d be too busy taking his teammates to the zoo with his pockets full of Werther’s. (I confess I hadn’t seen that notation before: while I watch college football, I almost never read anything about it, so I guess that’s how I missed learning that abbreviation)
I basically just made that abbreviation up, so I have no idea if “RSr” is even a thing. I’m genuinely surprised people actually read this, let alone cared enough to comment. So thanks for that!
I remember when Ruben Amaro Jr. was a senior at Stanford, so he would have been listed as Ruben Amaro Jr. Sr.
The Astros drafted Ruiz in the 28th round.
Good catch. Didn’t get him because he was drafted as “Johnny”
Freeman and Robertson were drafted.
Yep, I had them in the day three list, so not sure how they fell through. I triple checked the remaining players though!
I’ve got a brother who plays for Maryland, so I’ve watched Papio a ton. Great guy and leader. Has pop, speed and plays solid defense, but what I’ve heard, his K rate kept him out of the draft both this year and last year.
Yeah, his K% is very high. To be honest, I don’t think he’d do well against pro pitching for that reason. Since he’s such an outlier in terms of both age and K%, my KATOH model gives him a bit more credit than he deserves IMO. His favorable projection is probably mostly due to the fact that my model wasn’t built using any players quite like him.
eh, I watch a lot of Maryland, too, and I’d call his defense “good enough for college.” Corner-only in pro ball, I’d think. Still, he’s 80 makeup — someone will sign him as an UDFA, and he’ll go farther than his physical tools have any right to take him.
I am shocked, SHOCKED that Spencer Gaa from Bradley was not taken. Kinda surprised that he didn’t show in the KATOH reports as well. He had a great contact rate, very good ISO in a good pitchers environment, has a projectable frame at 6’2″, 170. Unless he drown some kittens that I’m not aware of, it makes no sense to me. Also is well though of enough to have been asked to play on the Cape for the second straight year.
Another one is Elliott Barzilli from TCU. Good numbers, good contact rate and these were put up against top competition.
I didn’t do projections for the MVC, which is where Gaa played. But looking at his stat line, he’d be right up KATOH’s alley for the reasons you listed.
Barzilli was drafted by the Astros very late. KATOH really likes him. Blurbed him here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projecting-the-college-players-taken-on-day-three-of-the-draft/
Ah, I see that now. Brazilli seems an Astros pick. Saw that they got Ronnie Dawson, who was very high on my list as well and guys like Birk and Benedetti. No surprise that they have a lot of analytics guys hanging around. Very glad for the work that you do, btw.
Yeah, Houston raided my KATOH spreadsheet in this draft. Ronnie Dawson, Nick Hernandez, Chad Donato, Elliott Barzilli, Carmen Benedetti, Ryne Birk, John Ruiz, Brian Howard… All KATOH guys.
Baseball Reference and the NJCAA have Eli Sutherland as born in 1993, meaning that he’ll be 23 in October. Hitting 208 as a junior and 232 as a senior, not surprising he wasn’t drafted.
Sutherland also a very low BABIP (.241) and decent ISO (.146) for a middle infielder. When you consider that that tends to normalize and that these numbers and that he did it against top competition, he is worth a 40th round pick so that he can be an org player at the very worst. It’s like Carson Kelly last year at Palm Beach last year. He hit .219, but he had a BABIP of .239 and an ISO of .113 in a huge pitchers park. That was bound to normalize, and it has. It’s about combing through a slew of data and putting context to some of the data to find bargains.
Ah, darn. Thought it was odd that he was a 20-yo senior, but couldn’t find anything to disprove it. He doesn’t look interesting anymore once you bump him up to 22. KATOH really only liked him because it thought he was 20.
Was surprised that Tate Blackman from Ole Miss wasn’t drafted. Was a draft-eligible soph I believe. BA had him at 331. Was drafted by the Brewers in the 20th rd in 2014.
Levi MaVorhis was just signed by St. Louis Cardinals. That 30 mph wind blowing out to left this year in Manhattan, KS was the curse of more than one pitcher who was “…undone by the long ball…”!