Keuchel, Verlander, and Facing These Yankees Twice

If we know anything about Dallas Keuchel it’s that he possesses some of the best command in the game. No starting pitcher more often targets and hits the lower third of the zone — and the borderline, 50-50 area at the bottom of the zone — according to Baseball Savant’s pitch data. Keuchel located 29.4% of his total pitches in these zones this season, tops among MLB starting pitchers.

The following graphic shows what and where Keuchel threw pitches in his stellar Game 1 start against the Yankees.

Below are the results of the Yankee plate appearances. Not surprisingly for a pitcher who’s recorded a 1.41 career ERA against New York in the regular season, they were basically all good for Keuchel:

This is what and where Keuchel threw pitches in his less-than-stellar Game 5 start against the Yankees on Wednesday night:

And the results from that start:

Quite different, in this case. Ultimately, the No. 4-seeded Yankees knocked Keuchel out of the game in the fifth inning and took a 3-2 series lead against the Astros.

This is of interest to this author because Keuchel pitched, if not exactly the same way, then at least in a similar one. Keuchel generally hit his spot, and they were generally the same spots he’d hit in Game 1. This time, though, the Yankees did far more damage against him.

Consider these run-scoring hits against Keuchel on Wednesday night, and also consider the location of the pitch, and the movement — or lack thereof — of Brian McCann’s glove.

If McCann’s glove is any indication, it doesn’t appear as though any of the three pitches here represents a mistake of execution. It’s just, in his second time facing the Yankees in a short window, his opponent was responding much differently. Maybe that’s that just baseball, just small-sample randomness. Or, perhaps, it’s evidence of the Yankees becoming more familiar and comfortable with a starting pitcher upon seeing him a second time. Did New York hitters have a better plan? In examining the locations where the Yankees swung and damaged Keuchel, the swings were more concentrated down in the zone. The Yankees did a better job of zeroing in.

Did the Yankees adjust?

Hitters learn. Pitching coaches act like saying "pound the bottom of the zone" for 30 years is unsolvable by hitters. Bad news, fellas. https://t.co/ZbG89y6C9O

— Kyle Boddy (@drivelinebases) October 18, 2017

We know hitters are adaptable creatures. We know hitters generally perform better the more times they face a pitcher in a specific game. We know hitters have evolved to a degree to combat the increasing velocity in the game. Perhaps some hitters and teams are also capable of adapting relatively better than others within a postseason series. And perhaps these Yankees are highly adaptable.

But what’s interesting to this author is that, since 2002, starting pitchers have fared better against opponents — according to FIP — when meeting them a second time in a postseason series. The numbers are about equal according to xFIP. Consider the following data compiled by FanGraphs’ Jonah Pemstein:

(In the limited sample of two third-time starts in a series since 2002, pitchers produced a 5.89 FIP.)

Keuchel told the Houston Chronicle and other reporters one of few mistakes he made was when Castro doubled in the second inning on a cutter that drifted out over the middle of the plate.

“[It’s] the only pitch I’d like to have back,” Keuchel.

Said Astros manager A.J. Hinch to reporters afterward: “They’ve hit some pretty good pitches.”

Said Chase Headley to ESPN’s Buster Olney: “You can’t go after his pitches. I thought we grinded him out.”

Only the Yankees did hit his pitches.

And it’s not the first time the Yankees have accomplished such a feat this postseason, improving in their a second attempt against a quality starting pitcher.

In the ALDS, the Yankees knocked potential AL Cy Young-winner Corey Kluber out of a Game 5 start — his second of the series — in just the fourth inning. Of course, there might have been some mitigating factors. Kluber, for example, had also struggled in his first start. Also, he admitted he wasn’t 100%, and Indians manager Terry Francona said Kluber was searching for his arm slot late in the season.

The Yankees also performed much better against Trevor Bauer in their second look against him, in Game 4, after Bauer was masterful in Game 1.

Like Keuchel, Bauer seemed to largely throw what and where he wanted to Game 4 of the ALDS against the Yankees.

Just as he’d done over the final four months of the season, Bauer leaned heavily on one of the game’s best curveballs in his stellar Game 1 ALDS outing versus the Yankees. Bauer played his four-seam fastball off his curveball, throwing it up the zone.

Bauer carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning and pitched 6.2 shutout frames.

Against the Yankees in Game 4, Bauer had the same fastball-and-curveball, north-to-south approach.

The results were not as favorable for Bauer. The right-hander was charged with four runs in 1.2 innings.

But in speaking to reporters after the outing, Bauer said he felt better than he had in his dominant Game 1 start. His velocity was up in Game 4.

“I thought my stuff was better,” Bauer said after the Game 4 loss. “The velo was up. The curveball had better depth. I thought I located well. It was just a couple little things.”

Was one of those little things that became big things that the Yankees were getting too many looks at Bauer’s biting curve in Game 1? Of his 98 Game 1 pitches, 35 were curveballs. Of his 55 pitched in Game 4, 21 were curves. Did the Yankees become more familiar to their benefit?

It’s possible. And it’s relevant to this evening’s Game 6 contest in Houston, where the Yankees face a pitcher in Justin Verlander who overwhelmed them in Game 2. In a complete-game effort last Saturday, the Houston right-hander struck out 13, walked just one, and ultimately allowed only a single run. He was masterful.

Of course, Bauer was masterful in his first appearance against the Yankees this postseason. Keuchel was masterful, too. Their second appearances? Not so much.

The question might once again be how well the Yankees adapt — or, conversely, how well Verlander anticipates New York’s adjustments. Here’s his pitch chart from Game 2:

There seems to be a strategy present here — in particular with Verlander’s use of the slider just under and just off the zone. It worked wonderfully in Game 2. Given his opponents’ previous success with second looks, however, it might not work wonderfully tonight.

The Yankees are a really, really good team. They finished second in the majors in run differential in the regular season. They have the game’s top power bullpen and power throughout their lineup. They have frontline starting pitchers. But they might do something else unusually well: they learn and adapt.