Kevin Goldstein Chat – 2/8/21

Jon: Under Luhnow, the Astros seemed to have a practice of basically giving out no minor league deals to veterans (maybe anyone?) during the offseason (IIRC, Jared Hughes was the only one they signed last offseason). What was the reasoning for that, and what did you think about that?

Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone. Welcome to the chat. Starting half an hour late today as I was talking to some baseball execs and agents about circus clowns (no, seriously, you’ll see soon), but we’ll hold tight to the 12pm ET on Monday’s in the future.

Kevin Goldstein: Fun first question and nice catch! I didn’t know anyone noticed. The Astros generally signed 1-3 veteran minor league FAs a year. Most teams averaged 10-12, and I remember one year where a team exceeded 30. The general thought there was that the org and depth and wanted to learn about the kids as opposed to insurance policies. I agree with it in general, but always pushed to sign a few more. I would have been in the 4-8 range most years.

Matt: Do teams ever hold grudges with agents? Would the Mets ever be less willing to engage with Bauer and agency if they thought they had a deal?

Kevin Goldstein: Grudges yes, but not in anyway that would prevent you from engaging. Plenty of agents I really liked dealing with, and some not so much, but no reason to let personal feelings about their representative get in the way of trying to acquire someone who can help the team.

Asinwreck: Great conversation with Steven Goldman at his podcast today. Will you write a lot about your experiences in the Dominican Republic? (Please write a lot about your experiences in the Dominican Republic.)

Kevin Goldstein: Glad you enjoyed it, and go check out Steven’s Infinite Inning podcast if you want to hear it. Definitely some pieces about the DR coming up. First one scheduled for early March.

Chamaco: Are there any players or teams that your prior employment would prevent you from talking or writing about at FanGraphs? For example, would you be able to answer a question about your expectations for Forrest Whitley this year and in the future?

Kevin Goldstein: Sure I can, but you might not like the answer. I’m not sure there’s a prospect in baseball with a wider range of possible outcomes than Whitley. I wouldn’t be surprised if he pitched zero innings in the big league, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he established himself as a rotation piece.

J: You mentioned it in your Cruz article, and I’d be interested in a full article about the process of a makeup dive

Kevin Goldstein: [Opens Evernote and adds “Makeup Digs” to Article Ideas project.

Quarantino Martinez: Thoughts on the Bauer signing, contract and extracurricular? You mentioned being against the Osuna deal. How much responsibility for player character should a front office take?

Kevin Goldstein: I mean, probably more than they should. Sad truth is, the better a player is, that more crap teams will put up with, in general.

PJ: Will Miami make any more plays for RP? Maybe bring back Kintzler?

Kevin Goldstein: There are SO MANY relievers still out there and the market is starting to crumble for them, so yes, I’d expect them to add a cheap arm or two.

Tal’s hill: Did you have any say or involvement in the Andre Scrubb for Tyler White trade?

Kevin Goldstein: Sure! I’d love to talk about the stroke of brilliance or something, but that was a super quicky where the Astros were happy just to get anything. Andre checked a few boxes in terms of what the team looks for in pitch qualities, but also took a big step forward last year. Astros minor league pitching coaches are pretty damn amazing, and I’m glad to see Bill Murphy bumped up to big league duties this year.

Jack: Is JD Davis as poor a 3B as defensive metrics show him to be? Should the Mets try to upgrade 3B? Justin Turner is still available.

Kevin Goldstein: He’s a mixed bag. Hands work, arm is plus, but range is really poor. It all adds up to below average.

Internal Conflict: As someone who is looking to break into a baseball front office (have had a couple interviews but no offers so far), I consistently hear stories about how poor the work/life balance can be. Can you confirm this? Would you recommend for someone who is looking to start a family soon? Also welcome to the site, your articles have been great, looking forward to more!

Kevin Goldstein: Confirmed, but it’s just part of the program. It’s pro sports and it revolves around fans. Weekend are non-existent because the team is always playing on the weekend, the biggest college games are on weekends, etc. Birthdays, holidays, anniversaries, etc are frequently missed as you are on the road, it’s just how it is. Divorce rate is well above the norm.

Ralph: Is an international draft eminent? If so, how will it work and will it improve conditions within the market?

Kevin Goldstein: It is assumed that an international draft will be part of the next CBA. Hard to say how it would work, but I would guess five rounds and then some sort of max $$$ amount for any player signing after the draft. It will not improve conditions in the market, like the amateur draft it will be designed to curb spending.

G: Your time working as both a baseball writer and executive give you a unique perspective on the state of MLB today.

Do you think your work as a writer in the 00’s brought us to the current sad state of baseball by laundering owner-friendly ideas  as “forward-thinking”? The constant praise of orgs like the A’s and the Rays

Kevin Goldstein: I mean, the A’s and Rays are both really smart orgs who do an incredible job considering their limitations because of their owners. I think it’s ok to separate the two. They are really good and doing what they do, but at the same time I wish they didn’t have to do it that way.

Rumors: Without naming names of course, if there even are any, do front offices hear rumors about certain players using PEDs, either majors, minors, or international signings?  Or does it just not get talked about?

Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely.

Section 34: Why hasn’t FanGraphs written an analysis of the Elvis-Khris Davis trade? Since we can’t get a whole article, what are your thoughts? Thank you.

Kevin Goldstein: Eric is working on it, it is coming soon, and I’m sure it will be excellent. Stay tuned.

Bernard Gilkey: You mentioned that the past eight years has led you to evaluate pitching differently. Does that extend elsewhere, can you now agree that the Beatles are the best band of all time?

Kevin Goldstein: I just absolutely never listen to them. I see no reason to do so.

Chris: Why do the owners negotiate through the media? It doesn’t seem to be helping

Kevin Goldstein: They’re creating a narrative, and I think several big writers are happy to carry their water, so it works in that sense, but I certainly don’t think it brings them any closer to agreements with the union.

RJ: Mets were willing to pay Bauer $35 million a year but wouldn’t go to $24 for Realmuto. Can you explain that?

Kevin Goldstein: Sure. I have no direct knowledge of the situation, but my educated guess is the ownership stepped in. It’s frequently the reason big deals than create some kind of logical disconnect happen.

Chris: Will the dodgers try to duck under the tax by moving jansen or price? How good a prospect/player would each need to be attached to?

Kevin Goldstein: I could see them making a move or two to re-work their depth, but I don’t think it will be for financial reasons. They don’t care much about  the minor (relative) cap hit, nor should they.

The Snuggler: Seems like a handful of teams are ahead of the curve on pitcher development (Cleveland, TB, LA, HOU, maybe CIN).  Is there hope that Baltimore could join them under Elias/Mejdal?

Kevin Goldstein: For sure, already well underway, actually.

Nittanychris: What do you think of Josh Naylor as a mini breakout candidate this year? He’s got good OBP skills and should have a long leash in a still weak Cleveland OF.

Kevin Goldstein: I’m not overly enamored with him. He’s a weird profile as a big dude who you think would mash, but he’s more contact oriented.

Adam: The Dodgers currently have a MAGA racist (Bauer), a domestic abuser (Urias), and are currently in pursuit of re-signing Justin Turner, who attempted manslaughter against members of his own team. Hell of an organization.

Kevin Goldstein: I get the criticism, but you are just saying that because you have some knowledge of stuff that formed those thoughts. I have no idea what team you root for, but I guarantee there are multiple players on that team that have things that would bother you just as much. That’s just the reality of things. Also, your favorite team (and the Dodgers) have tons of really good people as well. Up to you how to deal with that information.

J: I don’t mean to ask this in an attacking way but, you were the last Pro Scout in Houston and the head of that department when all the scouts were fired. My questions are why did you/the org feel like that was the best way to organize your operation? And 2-With this becoming a trend (under Stearns’ and Elias’ regimes) this will likely be part of your legacy-are you happy about that (in the sense that you helped trailblaze a new way to structure a FO) or do you have regrets about it?

Kevin Goldstein: Not taking it that way at all. Happy to take questions like this. I’m happy that part of my legacy (if there is one) involves a new way of evaluating players, but I think eliminating all in-person pro scouting is going overboard. I think you need a combination of eyes on the players and data and video.

kelder23: What do we do with the 2020 seasons of guys like Bryant, Baez, JD Martinez?  Most seasons, they are bouncing back from a bad month.  Are these guys done?

Kevin Goldstein: There are 8 million reasons for bad seasons because of pandemic-related . . . stuff. It’s exceptionally hard to know what was a real decline and what was an impactful distraction from player to player without knowing all of the circumstances.

Justin: Does it seem like all teams ultimately have what is basically their own version of WAR?  Was this also the case, say, when you first started with the Astros?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes, most teams have some kind of internal WAR or WAR-adjacent metric that is measuring the run-value of a player.

Great Moment, and Then Doubt: Kevin, I was on the edge of my seat in my living room for Altuve-Chapman in game 6, and there may still be a mark on my ceiling from where my head hit after jumping up when Altuve turned on that slider.  I am not an Astros fan per se, just  a huge baseball fan, and that was an amazing moment.  Two questions: First, where were you when he went yard? Second, the whole holding the jersey and immediately changing into a t-shirt is hard to dismiss.  What are your insights/thoughts on the alleged buzzer?

Kevin Goldstein:

1. I was in the suite watching with other members of the front office. 2. I have no reason to believe the buzzer stuff is true, which unfortunately only leaves me at about 95% sure that the buzzer stuff isn’t true.

Hakuho: Have you been keeping up with my career?

Kevin Goldstein: Of course I have and I was upset to see the COVID situation catch up to you. Fun basho in January with Daieisho winning for the first time. I keep talking to Meg and David about starting Sumo FanGraphs, but they just make faces at me.

kelder23: Who you got:  Cubs?  Cardinals?  Brewers?  Reds?  Division is so bad, even the Pirates?

Kevin Goldstein: I definitely feel like one of those teams will win the division.

Drew: Is Wander Franco really all that? Lindor potential or overhyped?

Kevin Goldstein: I’m not a big fan of comps unless they are super accurate and obvious. Super-talented Latin shortstop isn’t enough for me. Franco is really all that, but let him be Franco.

JS: While you were in Houston, the team had success in signing some J2 pitchers like Luis Garcia and Enoli Paredes who if they weren’t “old”, at least were older than 16. Are you going to write more about changes in scouting Latin America and/or some unique views you have on it?  Please?

Kevin Goldstein: Sure.

JR Richard: JR Richard looms large in my childhood 1970s baseball mind. Have you ever met him?  Is the impact/splash he made part of Astros organizational consciousness now?  Thanks

Kevin Goldstein: I met him a couple of times and shook his hand. I’m not a small human (6-2, 200, R-L) and his hand completely enveloped mine in a way I still remember.

Zirinsky: Hi Kevin. You might not want to answer this but when you were with Houston were there other front offices where you thought: “Yeah, those guys really know what they’re doing…”?

Kevin Goldstein: Honestly, most of them.

Jake: Can you provide any insight on how team view Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (TOS)? The track record appears poor but the ever-thrifty Rays did not seem to hesitate to spend on Chris Archer.

Kevin Goldstein: It’s a really disturbing procedure, because of the track record that you mention. The thing that makes you give a chance on guys like this is that the outcomes are usually he’s done or he’s fine, it’s kind of a reverse bell curve with most cases ending up on the ends of the probability spectrum.

128 fl oz: What do you see Zac Gallen as? Budding ace? Decent mid rotation starter or does the league catch up to his average stuff?

Kevin Goldstein: I mean, it’s not average stuff. Velo isn’t everything. It’s really good stuff. I think he’ll be a well above-average starter or more for a long time.

GSon: Any chance the LIDOM and VWL and MWL will see some media play via streaming or some other form of media?. Baseball’s off season is entirely toooo long !..

Kevin Goldstein: LIDOM had a very affordable streaming packing this winter. It was like 20 bucks and it worked great.

Scotty: When Rosenthal/Passan or whoever tweets out “X player is in agreement with X team”, where in the process of signing a free agent does that happen? Is that after they have actually signed a contract, or when the agent has told the team they agree to the terms, or when its been submitted to MLB?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s when terms are agreed upon. There is usually a letter of agreement to make it official. Player doesn’t sign the actual contract until after the physical.

George: Is there a type of prospect you have been turned off to as you learned more about player development? I know Eric Logenhagen talks about overrating long levered swings (Lewis Brinson for example) and how he now rates those prospects much lower. Is there a similar skill that you used to overrate in your evaluation?

Kevin Goldstein: I think you can judge tools and talk about potential, but at some point, dudes have to perform as well, and I think some have gotten away from that a bit.

Not Evan: How much do teams know their own (/ each other’s) international free agent signings that I don’t yet? Seems these guys make commitments when they’re like 14 and the world doesn’t get eyes on them again until three or four years later.

Kevin Goldstein: They know almost all of them.

Todd Boss: Follow-up to the question about team-agent relationships; are there known team-to-team issues or GM-to-GM issues that prevent deals from getting done?  For example, the last time the Washington Nats made a trade with Houston was 2007 whereas they’ve made moves every other team in the interim (save Baltimore for obvious reasons).  Did the Houston FO just not like Washington or vice versa?

Kevin Goldstein: Liked them just fine. Got very close on a few things, both large and small.

Dante: How important are the locations of a minor league team to an organization?  I feel like the Astros have gone through many triple A teams in the past few years (OKC, Fresno, RR, now Sugarland).

Kevin Goldstein: You definitely want your Triple-A team as close as possible and driving distance is ideal. You have a night game and a player shows up at 2pm with a twisted ankle from playing with his kid and it’s good to go a replacement there than night.

Buff: Good to have you on board, Kevin. So what topics in particular will you be covering? Since Eric appears to be unable to find the time to chat, I would hope you could talk about prospects a little and maybe even answer a few fantasy questions.That’s something that goes uncovered here.

Kevin Goldstein: I love talking prospects! I don’t play and therefore understand the nuances of fantasy baseball so I’ll leave that to the crew here. Happy to answer baseball questions, but I’ll leave the translation to fantasy to you.

ryan: we hear a lot, especially this offseason, about “ownership imposed” financial limitations….not necessarily saying that was the case in Houston during your tenure, but do you have any insight into how true that explanation for cost-cutting is? are baseball ops departments really hamstrung by ownership to a significant extent?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes.

Rodney: What is it about someone like Jose Urquidy that stays under the radar early in their pro and amateur careers? Publicly, he seemed kind of unheralded until his breakout. Were the building blocks always there?

Kevin Goldstein: Lack of hype. He was signed out of Mexico, didn’t really get attention and also had a TJ, so the hype train never got moving. Personal opinion, but lots of guys end up on prospect lists for too long based solely on signing bonus hype when it’s pretty clear they’re not going to live up to expectations.

Dante: Was the decision to remove Tal’s hill an analytical one based on the Astros offensive tendencies?

Kevin Goldstein: No. Was driven be the ability to re-do that area of the stadium for fans and restaurants and bars and stuff.

count123: Big Jays fan. Lots of trade activity over past few seasons between Astro’s & Jays. Were you actively involved in all those trades or just some? Do Astro’s feel they did well on those deals?

Kevin Goldstein: Actively involved in any trade from September 2012 to July 2019. Like all trades, we won some and we lost some. Biggest miss in terms of baseball talent was probably Teoscar.

Pumpsie Green: What is your general feeling about the Hall of Fame, and does it enter in conversations among active players? My thoughts run toward admiration for a business that sustains a high public profile without spending on advertising. It’s just a business, after all, owned by one family! I do recognize most people see it more as a hallowed institution, though.

Kevin Goldstein: I’m just super glad Jay Jaffe is here to cover it in the amazing way he does. It’s not my cup of tee and I think it needs some big changes, but hey, you do you.

Michael: Kevin – I’m loving all of the content you’re brining to fangraphs. Very interesting stuff.

Kevin Goldstein: Thanks so much for this. I appreciate how much the FanGraphs community has welcomed me to the fold and it just reinforces that I made the right decision in coming here.

George: When looking at defensive skill, do we generally overrate range? I’d think that with good positioning, a guy with great hands and a good arm and bad range could be a good defender on a smart team.

Kevin Goldstein: It’s becoming less important as teams get better at defensive positioning, but it’s still essential.

GSon: Your first car.. and would you buy one (completely restored) if the opportunity arose?

Kevin Goldstein: Dodge Dart, I want to say 1981? And absolutely not.

Robert: Yordan Alvarez had no MiLB experience at the time he was traded – what did the Astros see in him?

Kevin Goldstein: We saw him in workouts leading up to his signing with the Dodgers and absolutely adored him.

Todd Boss: Do you perceive there will be a work stoppage after 2021, and  how bad do you think it will be?

Kevin Goldstein: I feel very strongly that this CBA will end without a new deal in place. Obviously there are months between that and a potential work stoppage. I would bet 60/40 on a stoppage?

Pumpsie Green: How many more straight MLB deals to be signed this year? Over or under 10? Outside of Bradley, Turner and a couple of starters, are there any more multi-year deals to be had?

Kevin Goldstein: I’ll take the over. Lots of $1-3 million deals coming around the bend.

Guest: Almora to the Mets probably won’t warrant an article, but do you think it’s a decent sign, as a depth piece? Some potential upside left, since he’s young? If you’re the Mets and you don’t know if there’s a DH, does it make sense to plan to have Nimmo take a lot of the snaps in CF to maximize his and Smith’s offensive value?

Kevin Goldstein: It does warrant an article, and it’s coming soon (not by me). I think he’s a fourth outfielder. Fine with the signing, but shouldn’t be seen as an every day guy.

Mike: Would you be in favor of decoupling the draft order from losing the most games?  Seems like a lot of problems with the current game stem from teams not being incentivized to be good, so perhaps a lottery, slightly weighted towards the teams that just miss the playoffs, would be more helpful than burning it to the ground for multiple years

Kevin Goldstein: I’m not sure about your model for it, but some kind of de-coupling would be good for the game.

GSon: Was your first reaction to being presented with a trade, what’s wrong with the guy being offered?.. or What don’t we see with our guy that they are seeing?

Kevin Goldstein: Both!

Overrated: Can you explain why there is such a premium on lefthanded starters? I never understood why they would be valued more highly than righties since the majority of batters are righty.

Kevin Goldstein: I totally agree.

Lost in LA: Best guess – do the Dodgers still resign Seager and Kershaw after the Bauer deal?

Kevin Goldstein: I would bet Kershaw is a Dodgers for life with a late-career than resembles that of Wainwright in St. Louis. Seager no guarantee to stay.

Bob Loblaw: When evaluating a player, how much value do you put in the “he’s in the best shape of his life” angle?

Kevin Goldstein: As much as any of you should. None.

Nick: At this point in their careers, do any of Franklin Perez, Daz Cameron, or Jake Rogers have at least a 50/50 chance of being a major league regular?

Kevin Goldstein: If Perez can stay healthy (an enormous IF), he has a chance to be really good. I think Daz and Jake are big leaguers, but more of the reserve variety.

Scott Reed: Any plans for a podcast in the near future? Miss your dulcet tones dearly

Kevin Goldstein: In the works.

Zirinsky: How often did you share info with friends/colleagues on other teams?  Did you keep everything pretty close to the vest, or would you occasionally pulse other front office members about things?

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, those kind of communications are definitely part of the game. It’s a tricky one.

EbenezerBatflip: Which do you like more so far, Wandavision or The Mandalorian?

Kevin Goldstein: Not a Star Wars guy, not a comics guy, and cancelled Disney+ once my free six months ended.

Leody: What are your thoughts on Leody Taveras? Glove first/only (albeit a heck of a glove), or more than that?  He’s already fun to watch.

Kevin Goldstein: He’s incredibly fun to watch out there. Fantastic defender, I just don’t see any reason to think he’s going to hit enough.

Peter: What was the reaction from front offices to the most recent draft being reduced to five rounds, and do you expect future drafts to return to 30(ish) rounds or be cut down?

Kevin Goldstein: They were in general absolutely irate about it. I would bet that this year’s draft is in the 20-round range.

Max: Can you explain why teams and players put incentives in contracts that players will never get? Brad Hand has an incentive for a Silver Slugger, Mike Foltynewicz has incentives for MVP.

Kevin Goldstein: It’s called a “Standard Awards Package” and it’s in most major league contacts. Standard operating procedure.

Daron: What approximate percentage of discussed trades between front offices actually come to fruition?

Kevin Goldstein: A minuscule percentage. For every one hundred initiations, maybe five end up serious and one gets past the finish line.

jj: Do you think one of the reasons why pitchers who are more control and deceive types (K Hendricks) can more than survive is because there are relatively few of them out there and hitters just aren’t used to that type of pitcher with all the 95+ guys out there.

Kevin Goldstein: Not really. I just think his level of command is so exceedingly rare.

45 blows billygoats: I about spit up my coffee when Tork was announced by Detroit as a 3B only to find out they were serious. Is he athletic enough to make that change?

Kevin Goldstein: He’s got a chance to be acceptable but below average there. It’s worth a shot.

Matthew: This season do you think you’ll a) cheer for the Astros success b) cheer for whatever team you were a fan of before working for the Astros or c) view baseball very neutrally with no one team over another?

Kevin Goldstein: C.

ryan: do front offices have “command” metrics that you trust?

Kevin Goldstein: No. You gotta watch it.

Doug: How do trade talks typically start? Like a text message? Call?

Kevin Goldstein: Mostly text.

Ed: Did you ever start trade talks?

Kevin Goldstein: Start is a strong word. I was trusted to do “back-channeling” which is non-GM to non-GM stuff to figure out where teams are at. Sometimes that turned into real discussions that I would do, and sometimes they’d be upped to someone higher than me.

Kevin: Can you give any insight into that whole Ground Control fiasco?  What was that like internally?

Kevin Goldstein: Shit man, that’s a story. Find me in a bar one day and maybe I’ll be tipsy enough to share.

BG: How well do Statcast’s metrics hold up compared to data that teams have access to? Phrased differently, is Statcast useful to teams?

Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely useful. Plenty of metrics and tools that revolve around Statcast data.

Kevin Goldstein: Ok folks, thanks for all the great questions, but I need to clear the room for Ben Clemens, who kicks off his chat in 15 minutes!