Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat – 1/3/2022

Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone, and happy 2022. It’s me. I’m here. You’re here. There’s not much to talk about in the micro due to the lockout, but there’s always something to talk about in the macro, so let’s do that. Don’t worry, the lockout will end this spring, I promise.

Kevin: Why do you like baseball? What got you interested in the sport?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t know! I don’t have some great single moment. As you may know, I don’t really do any other sports. I can name maybe 10 players in the NFL, more in the NBA, and fewer in the NHL. I don’t do soccer. Just baseball and sumo, and my one consistent answer is that I like baseball so much because it’s so damn weird.

Tigers Fan: What’s your favorite song/band? If that’s too precise, at least genre?

Kevin Goldstein: That’s way to precise. I tend to listen to dissonant stuff, but certainly not limited to that. I can like pretty stuff too.

Datt Mamon: What do you think the Royals will do with Melendez this season? He’s blocked by Perez, but is there a chance he spends this year with the Royals and splits time at C/DH? What’s his ceiling?

Kevin Goldstein: Some of that might be defined by whatever the CBA looks like. If there’s not an incentive for the Royals to bring him up, I doubt he’ll see much time in KC.

Not Jim Tracy: What would the players have to give up to make it so that it’s 4 years of Service Time to get to Free Agency?

Kevin Goldstein: Playing Major League Baseball and start their own league? That’s just not going to happen. We might see something that gets them to FA differently, or counts MLS differently, but something like that isn’t going to change THAT dramatically.

Toy Cannon: Does Jake Meyers have All Star potential?

Kevin Goldstein: That would surprise me. He’s certainly a big leaguer.

171: If Zach Peek can add 1-3 mph to his fastball, can he be an impact pitcher at the big league level?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s kind of an unfair question in that 1-3 more mph would make him a much better prospect, but at the same time, you could say that about hundreds of pitchers so to just say he’s the guy is a bit disinformative.

Marshall: Hi Kevin, what is the industry perception of the value of an elite closer? For example, in a typical year, the best closer would rank as the Xth most valuable player?

Kevin Goldstein: Fun question. Not sure I want to throw out a Xth number off the top of my head, but I will say I think the industry values it more than general baseball public fandom.

Am anxious fan: Hi Kevin, we are already in January. Do you have any update on the two sides sitting to discuss the new CBA? I am a fool to believe that they will come to a deal without losing any game?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think you’re a fool. I think that’s certainly possible. I’d bet against it, but not in a really big way. It’s still just January 3rd, and there still is just no time pressure on either side yet.

Keefths: When do we start hearing about lockout negotiations ?

Kevin Goldstein: I’d set the over/under at two weeks from today. January 17 is the first day you’ll hear about talks or schedules talks.

Keith: Can Peyton Battenfield be a 3rd starter?

Kevin Goldstein: He can be a big league piece, but No. 3 starter is pushing it.

Freddy: I know you like Tyler O’Neill,  but will he regress at all, or is last year who we can expect?

Kevin Goldstein: The thing I like about O’Neill is the dramatic improvement in his swing decisions. If he keeps that up, he should be able to keep the overall game up as well.

Guest: What kind of things do you look at when trying to find players poised for comeback seasons.

Kevin Goldstein: This is similar to the O’Neill discussion. Back away from the baseball card stats and look at the underlying data. That will help you figure out what’s an actual decline and what’s just bad RNG.

Nick: Are you over or under Gleyber Torres Steamer projection for 22? 269/346/445; 118 wRC+

Kevin Goldstein: Man, I just kinda like that.

Mac: I’ve heard for years that Roberto Perez is one of the best game callers. How much value is in game-calling for the elite compared to average? Over a season are we looking at a few runs or multiple games?

Kevin Goldstein: Games

GBS42: Kevin, do you think major league players should have some sense of obligation to help improve working conditions for minor leaguers?  I know the MLBPA does not represent them, but given all major leaguers have endured those difficult minor league conditions, do you think they should do more?

Kevin Goldstein: I do, and it feels like they are starting to feel that way as well.

John Dorian: Hi Kevin. I really love all your work–you’ve been a great addition to Fangraphs. I also appreciate that you express your values, from pointing out that players should make decisions about their careers based on what’s important for them to the fact that people should enjoy whatever they like and not worry about what other people think, in your writing and chats. It is funny, given that, how long you carried on the “that’s not a great movie” dialogue in your chats. I thought of this the other day when I watched Good Will Hunting to my son, which has been clearly stated by the Kevin Goldstein Authority to NOT be a great movie. Now for a question: how do you wind up getting into sumo?

Kevin Goldstein: Look, I can say that I don’t think Goodwill Hunting is a great movie, but if you loved it, that’s awesome. Enjoy it. We live in a tough world to find your joy. I’m not here to be a referee. As long as you’re not hurting anyone, it’s my job to either help or get out of the way.  As for sumo, I just starting watching it, and found it absolutely enthralling, and the love was born very quickly.

EA: Is Pedro Leon going to surprise people, play SS, and hit over .250?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think he’s a shortstop, so no.

Ian: I live in an area with a lot of good college baseball and want to become somewhat of a scouting hobbyist. How do you organize your thoughts at in person looks?

Kevin Goldstein: I kinda don’t! I’m a pen and paper person. I have a desk filled with little notebooks. I have one page for each player I’m scouting and just keep taking notes and jotting down thoughts as they come to me. I don’t really organize it until it’s time to write the report.

Krish: Hi Kevin – only looking at his baseball skills/projections and assuming that he doesn’t have the NFL as an option, did Kyler Murray warrant a top-10 pick in your opinion? Thanks and keep up the great work.

Kevin Goldstein: It’s a tough question. For some, yes he did. For others, he was more bottom of the first round. At the same time, if Murray JUST played baseball, the thought that he’d be top ten might be more universal.

JB: Obviously the holidays throw a wrench in this, but does each day of no lockout news make you feel worse (as it makes me feel), or is knowing that all it could take is one breakthrough enough to keep your confidence from wavering?

Kevin Goldstein: It really shouldn’t make you feel worse. The second the players got locked out, you should have just assumed this wasn’t going to go anywhere until late January at the least.

Nick: When working in the FO, if a (pro) player you were scouting piqued your interest (not even necessarily as a potential acquisition), what’s the first thing you would check? His proprietary metrics? Contract/options info? A “do you like this guy?” conversation with someone else?

Kevin Goldstein: All of the above? If I found a player I liked, I’d always try to bounce him off other people . . . a hard core analyst, a video expert, etc. I think the best decisions are made from a diversity of opinions and different lenses.

NotAA: is there any particular reason that the same 5-10 people come up for every GM opening when there is probably 30+ qualified candidates around baseball?

Kevin Goldstein: Baseball is an exceptionally conservative industry. It’s very much the “nobody ever got fired for choosing IBM” mindset.

Shadow of Denny Neagle: Why do teams and players add mutual options to contracts, knowing that they almost never get picked up?

Kevin Goldstein: Usually to just have that buyout as semi deferred money.

Benji: Does top prospect Hunter Brown earn a spot in the rotation with the Astros out of camp?

Kevin Goldstein: Unlikely.

Mets fan: Do teams do any vision testing for international free agents? Seems very measurable and probably one of the stickier attributes when scouting young teenagers

Kevin Goldstein: They absolutely do.

Scott: Hey Kevin, I know you grew up in the Chicago punk scene but I’m a huge Blues fan and Chicago was hopping for that music at the same time. Did you ever check out any shows just for something different?

Kevin Goldstein: One or two. Just not for me.

Joe: With no CBA agreement likely until February or later, how likely is an international draft for 2022 international free agents? Can all the logistics be in place for that class or is 2023 more likely?

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, the January signing period is happening as planned, so if there’s an international draft, it will almost certainly start in 2023 at the earliest.

Troy: As a recent AZ transplant who is absolutely stoked to go to ST games, on a scale of 1-10 how worried should I be about losing ST games due to lockout

Kevin Goldstein: I think we’ll have a shortened spring training, but you’ll certainly still have games.

Guest: Do you think Jackson Jobe has ace potential?

Kevin Goldstein: Sure. That’s a rare quality to have, and at the same time, most teenagers with ace potential do not become aces.

Mitch: What is the closest you ever saw a trade to being complete but never got done? Was there ever a time where the FO was 99% a trade was happening but something at the last second fell through?

Kevin Goldstein: Oh yeah. Plenty of deals that I was quite sure were done that collapsed in the final mile. Sometimes it’s a medical, and sometimes ownership pulls the rug out…

Kevin Brozestein: How many pitchers in todays game would you trust going third time thru the order?

Kevin Goldstein: My initial guess is this than ten.

Scott: I know back at BP you guys would organize some in person stadium events and gatherings with front office…if the world ever settles would Fangraphs consider this?

Kevin Goldstein: I mean, I joined FG in the midst of a pandemic, so I’ve yet to do an event, but I know we like doing them and I’d like to be part of one. Hopefully we’ll get to a point where it’s something we can do safely for everyone involved.

171: Did another team ever reach out to you about a player that you considered as an afterthought/just a minor league position filler? If so, did this ever lead to you/the team looking more into the player and discovering that they could actually be an impact player?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes; No.

Guest: Odds Bobby Witt Jr can have a better career than Wander Franco?

Kevin Goldstein: I really like Bobby Witt. He’s wonderful. But like  . . . 23%?

Guest: What separates a typical reliever, or even a starter, from a closer? Is it a certain mental fortitude or clutch factor? Because to me, and I’m sure to others, it seems like you just need a straightforward three outs (most of the time.) Why are “closers” even a thing in today’s game? I know their importance has dwindled recently but I feel like they’re definitely still something with significance.

Kevin Goldstein: I know this is probably an unpopular opinion, but I’ll say it anyway. It’s not a straightforward three outs, and I do believe in the closer mentality thing. Some guys can handle the ninth, and some can’t.

TooDamnTall: Makeup seems like such a vague all-encompassing term, not to mention being massively subjective. For you were there any players that really moved the needle up/down because of some aspect of their personality?

Kevin Goldstein: Oh absolutely. Makeup matters, and matters a TON. For me, makeup is about loving baseball and being driven to improve. I really don’t care if they go to church on Sunday or help old ladies cross the street. I can think of a lot of players I would have no desire to interact with personally who still had great makeup.

171: Why do next to no players wear glasses/rec-specs any more? If you had to estimate, what percentage of players have some level of visual impairment that requires correction?

Kevin Goldstein: Tons of players wear contacts.

Guest: The least critically acclaimed (aka worst) movie that you like or love?

Kevin Goldstein: Paul Mazursky’s The Tempest?

Mitch: Are you able to shed a bit of light on how teams evaluate a players makeup? For instance, I believe I recall Longenhagen talking about how some teams will give newly drafted players a written test/assessment of some sort to get a grasp on this. Is this stuff common?

Kevin Goldstein: Almost every team does interviews/talks/tests or some combination of those things for potential top 100 picks.

TooDamnTall: Which MLB player confounds you the most?

Kevin Goldstein: Until he retired, it was Jerry Blevins. Guy had a 13-year major league career with the pitch data of a guy at Double-A with a six-plus ERA.

Max: Can you drop any hints on what pieces you plan on writing during the lockout?

Kevin Goldstein: Something fun coming Friday….

Guest: If Marlins can acquire another 2 WAR bat, do they have enough pitching depth to be a sneaky wild card team?

Kevin Goldstein: Sure. Tons of teams can be a sneaky wild card team. Plus, we might have expanded playoffs.

Kevin Bronzestein: If you wrote a baseball book, what would it be about?

Kevin Goldstein: Based on the questions I get in these chats, it just might be about how FOs work.

Chris: So what is rocker doing? He’s just training right? Is he going to play games? Are teams in touch with him? How’s all that work? Any feel for a range of where he gets drafted this year? What happens if he doesn’t sign again?

Kevin Goldstein: We just don’t know. He’s going to have to get on a mound in front of scouts before we can answer the last parts of your multi-part question.

Mitch: How often do players approach the analytics team wanting to know more advanced information about themselves?

Kevin Goldstein: Some players never, some players quite a bit.

171: In a typical year, are DR complexes working year round? I know that they take breaks during the holidays, etc. but are young players still attending classes during the off season?

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, complexes are about to kick up again and really run for about 11 months a year overall.

Tobias Funke: With all the tension between players and owners/front offices, are former players that join front offices ever perceived as traitors by current players?

Kevin Goldstein: Not really. This is between the owners and players, and often the front office people are kinda stuck between, while also knowing who signs their paycheck…

Alex: What does the “General Manager” of a minor league team do?  Is it basically a glorified gameday operations position?

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, kinda. They’re obviously making no player personnel decisions.

Beau: I just was gifted a PS5.  I’ve never owned a PlayStation before.  What game should I play?

Kevin Goldstein: Man, I got an Xbox Series X. I’ve always done Playstations since the PS1, but Game Pass made me flip. Play Ghost of Tsushima, or if you want something smaller and more esoteric, Disco Elysium.

NotAA: Are there any colleges that a lot of FO people attend that are suited for people with non Ivy level grades?

Kevin Goldstein: Look, just be smart and good and don’t worry about the degree or where it comes from. I have zero college credit hours to my name.

Mike: In the aggregate, how do FO employees lean politically compared to the general population?

Kevin Goldstein: The majority of GMs and those at the top of the food chain, would lean right when taken en masse, but it’s not universal, as you move down the ladder and get younger, it’s more leaning left. Kinda just reflecting society, really.

Don Von Handburger: When teams decide a reliever “can’t handle the 9th,” why do they then use that guy in the 9th on the road in tie games?

Kevin Goldstein: So many times when you see a team make a pen decision that seems weird when watching on TV, there’s a good reason for it. Someone is down and only the team knows it….

Guest: Are MLB free agents technically still a part of the union?  Or does their membership lapse during the period of their free agency?

Kevin Goldstein: If they were on a 40-man when the season ended, yes.

doug: Jerry Blevins podcasts now I think you could find out how he was decent!

Kevin Goldstein: Oh, I’ve said that exact thing to Jerry in person.

Bob: This is old news, but how does MLB reject a bid by Mark Cuban to buy teams, but allow clowns and frauds like the Montforts, Wilpons, and Loria to buy teams?

Kevin Goldstein: Because they define clown differently. Montforts, Wilpons, Lorias of the world are willing to work and play well with others and congeal with the existing ownership group. Cuban being a bit of a wild card is what makes ownership nervous.

Anselm: At any given point during the regular season, how many players per team (roughly) are dealing with physical pain the fans aren’t aware of?

Kevin Goldstein: In September, nearly all of them are banged up in one way or another. The grind is REAL.

Guest: Do you feel like Ohtani will have a ton of pressure and unrealistic expectations on him next season? I feel like even if he hits 30 homers and has an ERA around 4.00 that people will hate on him.

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think Ohtani cares about that pressure, so why should any of us?

171: What is the fewest number of games that a MLB season could be and still typically result in the best team winning the most games?

Kevin Goldstein: Boy oh boy, I’m not even sure 162 games does that job.

matt: What’s the latest a CBA could be agreed to without missing any regular season games?

Kevin Goldstein: Somewhere around 3/1?

ST: Aside from the revenue, though, don’t most folks want a shorter ST? Can pitchers start throwing without games (on their to build strength) and that helps ease the couple weeks missed?

Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely. It’s too damn long. Players think it’s too long, front offices think it’s too long, coaching staffs think it’s too long. Owners also have tax-incentive stadium agreements that guarantee X numbers of spring training games, so it’s not going to change.

Guest: How luxurious are the jets and hotels the players fly on/stay in?

Kevin Goldstein: They’re very nice. I’d love to write about what the charter flights are like, but it’s hard to do without coming off as bougie.

TooDamnTall: Do FO read a lot of public media, or mostly immersed in org reports?

Kevin Goldstein: They do, absolutely.

Mitch: What are the front office folks doing during the lockout?

Kevin Goldstein: There’s still lots to do, and frankly, for a bit it’s nice to have to break from MLB stuff to address amateur, international and player development issues.

Guest: Was the whole “moneyball” thing as revolutionary as it

Kevin Goldstein: There was a revolution, but Oakland was just a part of it as opposed to the driving force.

Lunar verLander: re. closer mentality: conversely, do you think there’s something about being a closer that makes them ill-suited for non-closer roles?

Kevin Goldstein: There are certainly some guys who kind of need the intensity.

Appa Yip Yip: Are you aware of any players ever having put on an adult diaper for a big game just so they wouldn’t have to worry about trying to squeeze in a bathroom break? Feels like a very reliever thing to do.

Kevin Goldstein: It’s really not hard to squeeze in a bathroom break. There’s a facility just inside the tunnel. WHAT A WEIRD QUESTION.

NotAA: Do you think that Baltimore will seriously consider, at the very least, taking a high schooler 1-1 based on Elias’ track record?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes, I do, actually.

Judge: If you’re the Yankees, do you a. extend Judge longterm (5+), b. extend him 3-4 c. see if he’s healthy again and then make a decision (but of course if he is, he’ll be worth even more)?

Kevin Goldstein: B. He turns 30 this year . . .

Mitch: Thoughts on the Jayson Stark article that proposed a new draft order that would give the teams who just missed the playoffs the first draft picks?

Kevin Goldstein: I’ve seen lots of ideas I could be down with and I’m open minded to that one.

Hmmm: Off the top of your head, who was the nicest player you’ve ever met? And if you don’t mind, the meanest?

Kevin Goldstein: Most of the players I met in person were Astros. Correa, Altuve, Maldonado, Marwin and Teoscar come to mind, along with plenty of minor leaguers.

TooDamnTall: Speaking of Judge, what’s his secret for overcoming those long levers?

Kevin Goldstein: He still whiffs a lot, but it’s just the quality of the contact due to his strength that really separates him.

Mitch: How do teams truly know player’s ages (thinking specifically about draft/international prospects)? Is there a chance that there are MLB players playing right now who are actually older than their recorded age says they are?

Kevin Goldstein: I’m sure one or two have fallen through the cracks, but it’s not like it used to be. International players no go through a rigorous check from MLB before they can be signed.

NotAA: Is there any notable difference between the titles Chief Baseball Officer and President of Baseball Operations

Kevin Goldstein: The title game is weird. There are GMs doing the same job as other team’s AGMs.

John: How about instead of Stark’s draft order proposal, there is more of anti-competitive tax. Teams that don’t spend according to their revenue and additionally don’t meet a specific win threshold have to pay a tax? Doesn’t impose a salary floor on teams like Oakland or Tampa but also forces teams to spend if they have it and are not in a position to win

Kevin Goldstein: I generally don’t like “We will punish you if you don’t do this” ideas as much as “We will reward you if you do this” ideas.

NotAA: When you started out working for the Astros did you have aspirations of becoming a GM

Kevin Goldstein: Um, maybe, but I knew it was an unrealistic goal. About a year in I realized that GM is not a job I’d probably even want. AGM is where it’s at.

TooDamnTall: Are FO personal upset when they get a title change to prevent taking another (better) job?

Kevin Goldstein: Sometimes, but only sometimes. Often they wanted to stay there and got a nice salary bump.

Hello!: What’s the ratio in the clubhouse between extrovert/introvert players, if you had to guess?

Kevin Goldstein: Somewhere about 2/3 to 1/3?

171: Kevin, I absolutely love your chats. Every time you pull back the curtain on front office workings, even the smallest things, it is just incredibly interesting. Thank you so much for what you do!

Kevin Goldstein: Glad you enjoy. I’m the person who likes doing chats.

Terry: Can Logan Gilbert be a number 2?

Kevin Goldstein: Feels like a 3/4 to me.

Baseball Fan: Are there any scouts that are clearly head and shoulders above the rest? How much is THE BEST scout in baseball worth?

Kevin Goldstein: I think so, yes. They’re worth a ton.

Hello!: Do you think shorter fellows like Altuve and Pedroia benefit from a smaller strike zone?

Kevin Goldstein: A bit, but not enough to really change their profile.

Name Here: Do you think that the top draft picks are ever hesitant about being drafted to say, the O’s or Pirates orgs, or are they mostly just grateful for getting drafted and getting lots of money?

Kevin Goldstein: The latter. They’ve spent their whole lives to get to this point, and it’s finally paying off.

171: How often do teams reach out to pitchers who post their pitch data on twitter? does that actually happen? Do any teams have agreements with places like driveline to just have access to their data to evaluate players?

Kevin Goldstein: It certainly happens. Teams see that stuff. It’s not going to get a player a contract, but it could get an invite to come to the complex and throw off a mound at see if our data matches what your just posted…

Francona: Under the table deal (ignoring pool) for international prospects – is it still happening?

Kevin Goldstein: If it is, it’s been reduced dramatically with both the pool and MLB really taking a closer look at things happening in Latin America. Combo deals are still happening and that could be a real issue in an international draft setting.

TooDamnTall: I live in China and should go to bed, but I really enjoy your chats. Thank you

Kevin Goldstein:

晚安

FO: What are generally the biggest points of disagreement between ownership and front offices?

Kevin Goldstein: We want more money for big league payroll, you can’t have more money. But we want more money for payroll, well you can’t have more money. Repeat ad nauseam.

Joe: Should <1000 innings preclude Billy Wagner from the HOF?

Kevin Goldstein: Nope.

KB: Do you collect anything?

Kevin Goldstein: Not really. I prefer experiences over stuff.

Francona: Does MLB have any intention to increase signing pool for draftee? We’ve seen articles concerning about talents going to other pro sports due to lack of money in their early career.

Kevin Goldstein: I think there are a lot of factors going into that, and bonuses are a very small one. Scholarship money is the biggest factor.

NotAA: How was the office environment during the World Series run?

Kevin Goldstein: Excited, stressful, but also you try to find some zen because it’s just out of your hands at that point.

Tiger Fan: Ok, here me out – Tigers are a Rodon away from 88 wins and a division title. Am I too optimistic?

Kevin Goldstein: Maybe just a little, but a little! Team is definitely trending in the right direction.

Kevin: What markets do you think MLB wants to be in the most when it comes to possible expansion?

Kevin Goldstein: Vegas and either Charlotte or Nashville.

Kevin Goldstein: Ok, entering the final stretch . . .

NotAA: where you a good ball player back in the day?

Kevin Goldstein: Nope.

Name Here: Do you know if players like using themselves in games like MLB The Show or is it weird to them?

Kevin Goldstein: There are some. Much more FIFA in spring training hotels than MLB The Show overall.

TooDamnTall: Australia and Brazil seem to be two countries where Baseball is expanding. China has a large academy system trying to develop players. Do you see any other places where the game is expanding?

Kevin Goldstein: You’ve nailed the places. There are continued attempts to get the sport going in Europe, but that feels like a fool’s errand.

NotAA: Is it ever difficult for FO personnel to have conversations with 17 y.o. draft prospects

Kevin Goldstein: Oh yeah.

Guest: Is Rays to Montreal going to be permanent eventually or is the plan entirely to sucker Tampa into a good stadium deal?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t the whole 50/50 split idea is an absolute ruse to get a new stadium.

NotAA: Due to the shut down of Venezuelan academies is there any country where you could see teams putting that second overseas academy?

Kevin Goldstein: Not really. The industry reacted by building much better facilities in the DR and just centralizing everything there.

Hank: What’s your favorite topic to answer questions about?

Kevin Goldstein: In terms of baseball stuff, people seem to really like the ‘how the sausage is made’ stuff, so I enjoy answering those.

Greg: Did you like the NHK special on Hakuho? I wanted more old match footage but understood making it about The Last Stand. Also: draining the knee looked gruesome!

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, we watched it on New Year’s Day! I thought it was good, and really learned some stuff. I would have liked more old matches as well, but I could watch that final Terunofuji match one thousand more times and It wouldn’t get old.

Tony: What do most front offices think of the Rockies FO? Are there others that are a little more under the radar bad?

Kevin Goldstein: A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma….

MM: Which players are you most interested to watch in 2022?

Kevin Goldstein: All of them, and it’s going to happen. Just be patient.

Kevin Goldstein: And with that, I wish you all the best for the upcoming year and I’ll see you next week.