Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat – 12/6/2021

Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone. Let’s chat. I know times are tough baseball wise, but we’ll be fine in the end, I promise.

Jon: What’s the BEST-case scenario for a lockout end? Any chance of this year?

Kevin Goldstein: Almost ZERO chance of this year. I wouldn’t even expect anything resembling substantial talks until the calendar flips. There’s just no impetus right now. The players don’t start losing paychecks for another four months, and the owner’s revenue streams aren’t really threatened until spring training. Best case is probably somewhere between 1/15 and 2/1.

Hi Kevin!: Okay give me the bull case on why Bobby Witt Jr maybe does better than he is “expected” and the bear case on why he does not?

Kevin Goldstein: Bull Case: Highly advanced at 21, still 5-8 years from prime, will continue to improve and become a franchise players.

Kevin Goldstein: Bear Case: So-so swing decisions and swing-and-miss tendencies led to some hit tool limitations that hold him back.

Derek: Any steaming hot Hall of Fame takes?

Kevin Goldstein: I’ll leave those to Jay.

Doug: What number does a hypothetical Ohtani extension start with?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s such a great question and I think a very difficult one. If he can do what he did every year, it’s obviously a massive number, but can he do what he did in 2021 every year? Based on how it ended, I think there are plenty of very fair questions regarding that.

Jim: How much longer do you see George Springer being All-Star quality? And how much longer do you think he can stick in CF?

Kevin Goldstein: The biggest risk is his health, as his skillset is something that tends to age well. He’s probably a little fringy in CF right now, but that’s more of a team-specific questions in terms of future position.

Jacob: Did you use ever use a coding language in your role?

Kevin Goldstein: I have a background in tech, so a little. I know just enough SQL to be dangerous. You probably don’t want me writing SQL, but if there’s a query somewhere, I know how to change it to suit my specific needs. I’ve done some “hello, world” kinda stuff in R, but that’s about it.

Derrick: Do you think there’s much to the theory that Gleyber Torres will hit better playing 2B than SS?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s hard to say without knowing the person, which I don’t, but it’s certainly a real thing for some players and therefore within the realm of possibility.

5 Run Homer: The lockout sucks but it is an opportunity for everyone to start watching hockey, a sport that rules and has less meddlesome owners

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think I can name five NHL players. Now is a great time to get into sumo, or play Shin Megami Tensei V.

Jacob: Is Trevor Story’s market bad? Could he return to Colorado?

Kevin Goldstein: No; highly doubtful.

Jacob: Do you have any books you have read that weren’t baseball books, but made you think differently or better about baseball?

Kevin Goldstein: Nothing comes to mind immediately. In general I don’t read baseball books, and as an absolute, I don’t read business books that tend to be the flavor of the month and get passed around front offices.

John Van Benschoten: Do you use motion smoothing while watching 24fps movies on your OLED? Some of the panning shots are very jarring to me without it.

Kevin Goldstein: No. Motion Smoothing is an abomination and should be banned in the constitution. I don’t et jarred by it at all, but know that some do.

Sirras: What was the biggest change to your thinking/evaluation of players that you needed to make in transitioning from a member of the public to a member of a front office?

Kevin Goldstein: I think the most jarring thing might have been the intrinsic value of a 40-man roster spot.

Amy: How like is it that the NL has a DH in 2022? And not just in interleague play!

Kevin Goldstein: 83.21954%

Datt Mamon: What do you make of what Correa’s market will be post-lockout? There’s no way the Cubs could somehow swoop in, right?

Kevin Goldstein: I think his market is just fine and that he’ll get paid. I’m a little confused as to what the Cubs are doing, so maybe?

J: I saw Lance McCullers Jr talked to Dr. Neal ElAttrache about his injury-is that officially allowed during the lockout since ElAttrache is officially listed as the Dodgers head team physician?

Kevin Goldstein: It is. ElAttrache is not an employee of the Dodgers, nor are most (I think ANY, but not totally sure) head physicians. They are contractors with private practices and thus can speak to their patients. Head trainers and strength and conditioning folks can not.

A big dumb idiot: I havent seen the unions enormous grievance over the 2020 season mentioned with lockout discussions. Is it likely to be a factor? Either as a carrot or stick by the union

Kevin Goldstein: I’m not sure it’s a huge factor, but it is still hanging out there.

David: How does the transitive property work for defensive grades? If a prospect is a 40 defender and is currently a shortstop, does this mean he’s a 45 third baseman? Did you have any sliding scales like this with the astros

Kevin Goldstein: Not at all. That’s very dangerous thinking in my mind. 3B is a different skill set. It’s a read and react position and some can slide over there well and others really struggle.

Appa Yip Yip: Seiya Suzuki isn’t part of the MLBPA, so can front offices talk to him and his reps? By delaying his posting until it would be bisected by the lockout did he buy himself an extra month or two of negotiating time?

Kevin Goldstein: They cannot. You could call and offer him a minor league deal!

Scotty: Hey Kevin, are waiver claims subject to physicals like free agent signings? For example, when the Reds put Miley on waivers and the Cubs picked him up, was that subject to a clean bill of health? If the Cubs claimed him and then did a physical and his elbow had exploded, would the reds still be on the hook or would the Cubs have to decline his option and pay the buyout?

Kevin Goldstein: The Cubs can (and certainly did) request a medical, which would be his complete medical record, to review before making the claim. They did not do a present physical, but the Reds do need to inform him with any ‘new’ medical stuff that might not be in the report.

Guest: We’re you surprised the Cubs signed Stroman?

Kevin Goldstein: I was.

Jacques Pederson: How engaged do you think individual players are with the unions goals? I think there are clearly players who care to their core about the details (when free agency starts, how players get to teams, etc) but I get the feeling most are on the “more money is better, so yeah go do that” train.

Kevin Goldstein: They’re quite involved in terms of weekly or daily calls, but like you say, some are very involved in the specifics and others not at all.

Tom Ricketts: If I sign Correa and Rodon are the Cubs a playoff contender in a 12-team postseason in 2022?

Kevin Goldstein: They could be….

Stan: Hi,Kevin,

Kevin Goldstein: Hi Stan.

Cubs: What are we doing??? Are we trying to compete in the next two years in the weak NLC? If not, why sign Stro?? Do we make a play for Correa?

Kevin Goldstein: I’m very confused. Last week, Cubs fans were absolutely fuming over NOT signing Jon Gray, and now they’re confused/upset over signing Stroman?

Toy Cannon: Does Conforto take a Semien like prove it deal? If so would the Astros go after him and move Tucker to CF?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think a championship-level team wants Tucker in CF every day, but Conforto is a perfect candidate for a make-good deal….

John Smith: Supposedly teams aren’t supposed to talk to each other about trades involving players on the 40 man during the lockout, and free agents and teams aren’t supposed to talk about major league contracts during the lockout.  MLB can’t really police that though, can though?  Isn’t it fair to assume that things are progressing as normal right now, with the only difference being that nothing can be announced or made official until once the lockout ends?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think things are progressing as normal at all. I’m not saying ZERO conversations are happening, but I do think they are greatly reduced. MLB sent a VERY VERY firm memo to teams about communication.

Trevor: Steamer projections have Alejandro Kirk being a top 40 hitter in wRC+ . This can’t actually happen can it ??

Kevin Goldstein: The dude can rake. Feels aggressive, but the dude can rake.

Erik: Are analytics on the team side better described as A) basically what you see on the public side, but with slightly better data to work with, or B) an order of magnitude more advanced than what’s available publicly?

Kevin Goldstein: B.

QBall: Do winter leagues change anything in terms of player evaluation?  Or are they really just important for health/playing time?

Kevin Goldstein: Far more the latter.

Trevor: The Jays are being linked to Freddie Freeman. I still see him going back to Atlanta but if he did sign with the jays does this really handcuff them in extending Bo and Vlad? I struggle to see another 25-30 AAV being able to fit in their long term outlook. Any thoughts on this ?

Kevin Goldstein: I mean, they certainly HAVE the money…..

Matt: Do you think we see some seismic shifts in the new CBA or some mild tweeking of the existing systems? Will it include any of the following: International draft, Salary floor for teams, or major changes to service time?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think we’ll have seismic shifts. I think an international draft is likely, but not a salary floor.

Dalton Wilcox: Age in a vacuuum….overrrated and/or overstated yah?

Kevin Goldstein: yah.

Mac: Did you ever leak a rumor to someone?

Kevin Goldstein: Nah.

Dave: Can Peña really be the OD shortstop or do you see them trying to get a stopgap?

Kevin Goldstein: I’d give him every chance to earn the job in spring training.

Ben: Between Frank Schwindel and Patrick Wisdom, who is more likely to actually be good again in 2022?

Kevin Goldstein: Frank.

Steve: Interesting point re:books. Is that because you want to have a perspective that stands out from the rest of the group, or do those books elicit a real aversion to the corporate-speak mumbo jumbo.

Kevin Goldstein: It’s the latter. I really have no interest in Malcolm Gladwell or thinking wide and not skinny or whatever captures the imagination of non-imaginative CEOs for the month. I think something like super-forecasting is interesting at least, so there’s that.

Thomas: Obviously teams aren’t allowed to make trades for 40-man guys during the lockout, but are they allowed to discuss them? My gut says yes, but given the draconian tack MLB is taking here, maybe it’s no?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s no. As I said before I’m sure some discussions are happening, but I’d guess it’s maybe 10% at most of normal in terms of amount.

cz: are free agents still in the union? for example, could a team skirt the lockout and sign Correa to a minor league deal?

Kevin Goldstein: No.

DW: KG, what is your (obviously biased) but professional opinion regarding Espada as a potential managerial candidate for the Mets?

Kevin Goldstein: I think he’d be great.

Erik: What’s the value of a true 80 glove at first base? Would a team happily start a 100 wRC+ guy there if his defense was that elite?

Kevin Goldstein: Kinda depends on the rest of the lineup. I certainly think there are plenty of teams where that would make sense.

David (formerly Sonoma State University): Re: No-Trade Clause, for the players that can submit new teams every year, what happens if they miss the deadline submission? Does the team send over a “courtesy” notice if they’re close to the deadline, or is there some team-friendly penalty if the player/agent misses the deadline to resubmit?

Kevin Goldstein: I’ve never seen a missed one, but the submission is basically changes to the existing no-trade that was established upon signing, so I would assume that no submission equals no changes.

Guest: What is your ideal playoff format?

Kevin Goldstein: Haven’t really nailed it down. I’m all for an expanded playoff, but want bye and seeding and maybe even some Asia stule stuff where it’s a five game series but technically a four-game with the high seed starting up 1-0.

Verlander what: What do you make of the Verlander deal not being announced? Ken Ronsenthal suggested something might’ve gone wrong with his physical

Kevin Goldstein: It’s certainly a fun mystery, but I have no insight as to what’s going on. Feels like SOMETHING is going on, but can’t be sure.

Jacob: How indicative of other MLB finances are the Braves/Liberty Media?

Kevin Goldstein: Not very.

Pete: What would you put the odds at that the new cba will allow for arbitration after two years of service?

Kevin Goldstein: At just two-flat? Period? Less than 33%.

W: In your estimation how important is it for an MLB manager to have MLB managerial experiences aka is it a major “jump” from 3b coach or bench coach?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think it’s a necessity.

Owen: When teams are searching for breakout relievers, what skills do they target/statistics do they anaylyze?

Kevin Goldstein: They’re looking at stuff and the best way to utilize that stuff more than statistics.

Christian Colon for Men: When you have first contact with an agent on a free agent, does the agent typically give you years or the type of deal they are looking for, or do they leave it up to you bring up years and money?

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, you often ask for ‘guidance’ and some give it and some don’t. They might just say “multi-year’ or “we think our client is similar to Player X’ but they rarely give you hard numbers.

Brian: what percent of people who want a FO job will a ever break into the industry?

Kevin Goldstein: Single-digit percentage.

5 Run Homer: Did you watch Get Back? Any Beatles opinions generally?

Kevin Goldstein: I didn’t. I don’t have Disney+, but I wouldn’t watch it anyway. The Beatles just aren’t my thing.

Erik: So what are front office members doing right now if they can’t work on most relevant moves? Are they putting a ridiculous amount of thought into the most minor of minor-league deals, or are they getting the rare chance to take things relatively easy and spend some time with their families over the holidays?

Kevin Goldstein: They are putting a silly amount of time into the minor league Rule 5 draft coming up, I know that. Still lots of work to be done on the amateur and international front, as well as player development.

Luke: No way the angels are done adding pitching right? Are they a playoff team in your opinion at this point?

Kevin Goldstein: They shouldn’t be; Not yet, but they could get there…

Ryan: If the current system is exploiting younger players who are producing more value than ever before… shouldn’t they be paid more to start their careers?!

Kevin Goldstein: Of course they should.

biggs: Do FO employees still get paid during lockout? Where’s the line on who’s considered employed and who isn’t?

Kevin Goldstein: They are still getting paid. Their contracts DOES allow for a suspension of their contract in the even of a work stoppage, as many teams did during the pandemic, but no teams have indicated that they are anywhere close to that yet, and really won’t unless somehow the season is in jeopardy, which again, I don’t think is going to happen. I think we’ll be fine in the end.

Billy Beans: Opening Day 2022 (whenever that comes) – who is Matt Olson playing for?

Kevin Goldstein: Not the A’s is about all I can say with anything close to confidence.

Teams: So, the money seems the biggest sticking point, as well as service time, but how many teams do you think we end up having in the 2022 playoffs?

Kevin Goldstein: 10-12.

Gorman: Do players vote in private as to what the MLBPA’s specific position is on each issue? How does something like age or years get voted on?

Kevin Goldstein: They work together to create a full proposal, based on input from the members. The won’t vote as a group until it’s time to accept/decline an agreement.

Derrick: Have you heard what an international draft would look like? Currently players sign ~age 16. Would players be draft eligible at that age?

Kevin Goldstein: Likely 15-20 rounds. Likely hard slots. Likely hard cap on players signed after the draft. And yes, 16.

Dek: Have you been to the Egyptian Theatre since its recent renovations? What a gem!

Kevin Goldstein: I have not, but I sure walk and drive by it a lot. I did a ghost tour there once with the kids.

Guest: how likely is Bryson Stott going to start at SS for the phillies this year?  Is his stock rising in your book? Phillies have to love how close he is with Harper

Kevin Goldstein: Stock is rising, and a 2022 debut is certainly in play, but I’d be pretty surprised if he was their primary SS this year.

Appa Yip Yip: The Jays made their biggest commitment to a reliever in the Atkins era with Yimi Garcia, do you think he has another gear?

Kevin Goldstein: I was actually kind of surprised by that one. I think he’s a bit overrated.

Christian Colon for Men: When looking at free agents, how do front offices assign the lead negotiator? Does one guy focus on free agent pitchers or  free agents from certain teams (like is there a NL West guy?)

Kevin Goldstein: With the Astros, it was agent based. I had Boras and a few others. It’s about relationships so we tried to keep that consistent.

Kevin Goldstein: To be clear, at a certain point with many deals, whatever the conversation is, it gets kicked up to the GM. There were only a few FA negotiations I did from initial talk to deal acceptance.

Jed: Baseball ops employee/intern ? Avg. # of hours worked per week for in-season vs. off-season?

Kevin Goldstein: Doesn’t really change. There are crunch times, and in a normal, non-CBA year, November and December are big crunch times.

Sir Nerdlington: How many rounds should the rule 4 draft be?

Kevin Goldstein: 20-25.

GBS42: I understand you’re not very interested in awards voting, but Buck O’Neill’s election to the Hall of Fame certainly has to be heartwarming for everyone as an additional recognition of his vast contributions to the game of baseball.

Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely. I learned last week that he was NOT in the Hall of Fame (yet), and was shocked by that. Glad it’s fixed, even if it took way too long.

Mickey Minoso: If you had to pie chart hit, power, run, defense, throw how would it look?

Kevin Goldstein: Very different pies, depending on position.

MikeD: “They are putting a silly amount of time into the minor league Rule 5 draft coming up…”.  Is that going to even happen?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes. The major league rule 5 is ‘delayed’, but the minor league rule 5 is happening on time.

Ben: What was the worst part about working inside baseball

Kevin Goldstein: The quality of life can be taxing. I was basically  at minimum on call for eight straight years.

Appa Yip Yip: If you had a pie how would it look

Kevin Goldstein: Hopefully like a cake.

Derrick: Do you think international players will have to declare for the draft similar to NBA so they can potentially increase their stock as they get older?

Kevin Goldstein: No.

MikeD: What was Scott Boras like to deal with?  From the outside looking in, I’d hire him as my agent.

Kevin Goldstein: I dealt far more with his other agents, but they’re fine to deal with. I found them very straight forward.

Sirras: If you were negotiating the CBA, what non-monetary or service time related change would you push for as a representative for the owners? For the players?

Kevin Goldstein: I just think we need to have a ruleset that encourages and even incentivizes teams to put their best 25 or 26 players on the field.

Ben: Do you think players right at the line who could get small major league deals but might have to settle for minor league deals (thinking Marwin Gonzalez, Travis Shaw, Daniel Vogelbach, etc.) are more likely to take minor deals during the lockout or wait for a chance at a big league deal?

Kevin Goldstein: Definitely wait.

MikeD: An article suggestion. Regarding the Scott Boras question, it would be interesting to hear a behind-the-scenes look about different agent styles, perhaps without using names. That’s a part few of us get to see.

Kevin Goldstein: I’ll think about a way to do this . . .

Chris: Will the owners even engage prior to mid January? Won’t this thing take like 2-3 weeks whenever the owners are willing to negotiate?

Kevin Goldstein: To be fair, I don’t think either side is really interested in negotiating on December 6th. Things will pick up in January. To get spring training starting on time, they’d need to be done or have confidence in things getting done by 2/1.

A cat: Do you feel Bogaerts would be satisfied with the Semien deal, or would he expect the Seager AAV over a shorter (6-7 year) duration?

Kevin Goldstein: This kind of thing is really hard to answer. We can talk about contract values, but at the same time, there are some players who really really really want to get to free agency and go through that process and see all of their options.

Astros 2 – Texas Orange: Is Seiya Suzuki the play for the Red Sox? There’s no way they really plan to put JBJ back in the OF full time, even to get his glove into the field.

Kevin Goldstein: I think he’s the play for quite a few teams.

Mac: How difficult has it become to evaluate a reliever these days? It seems they can change their profile so quickly by adding a new pitch, improving a current pitch or changing their release point. What are teams looking at for an accurate evaluation?

Kevin Goldstein: Relievers are terrifying because of the amount of variance in terms of performance. Teams are very very focused on stuff when looking at pen pieces, as well as the kind of ‘unlocks’ that might make them better down the road.

Colb: Does Seiya Suzuki following the Red Sox (and no other teams) as well as Red Sox players mean anything?

Kevin Goldstein: Not really. Nothing means anything until contracts are signed.

JJ: What did you think of the JBJ-Renfroe swap?

Kevin Goldstein: It took me by surprise. I thought it was a really good move for Milwaukee.

A cat: Who wins the OAK-LV tug of war for the A’s?

Kevin Goldstein: I’m not sure anyone really knows.

troybruno: In the offseason, where would your (Kevin’s framework) median expected W total need to be to conclude that you won’t be competitive in the following year?

Kevin Goldstein: In the 70s somewhere?

Paul: Do you think we see a team go without a manager any time soon? I feel like we’re eventually heading in that direction

Kevin Goldstein: I do not, and I guess I don’t understand why you see it that way.

Dave: What exactly are the rules around someone not currently on a 40-man roster talking with teams? Could Carlos Correa sign a minor league deal right now? Could someone like Ichiro, who last played in 2019, sign a minor league deal?

Kevin Goldstein: I’ve gotten something like this question like 20 times, and I don’t understand the obsession with these kind of work arounds. Correa is not going to sign a minor league contract. He’s part of the union and he’s going to respect the union and he’s not going to be interested in a work around. He’s going to get a good deal, so why would he even entertain such a thing?

Craig: Roughly what % of players sign the best financial offer they get? Seems like people talk about players wanting to go here or there but doesn’t it almost always depend on who makes the top offer?

Kevin Goldstein: There is TREMENDOUS pressure from the union for the big FA names to take the biggest offer. Rising tide raises all boats kind of thing. For other players, it can definitely become a case where geography and other matters come into play.

Ben: Do you think teams will ever go back to naming official player captains? If so, which team is most likely to do that?

Kevin Goldstein: It doesn’t really mean anything, but I gotta say, it would be fun.

MikeD: So based on pressure from the union, would they have been happy or unhappy with Wander Franco’s deal?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think either, really.

Erik: How many teams could be legitimate contenders in a given offseason if they pushed their payroll to the tax and traded whatever prospects they could for MLB talent? Am I crazy for thinking the answer is all 30 of them?

Kevin Goldstein: Not at all. Well, it gets kind of confusing right? If all 30 teams are ‘trading whatever prospects’ but every team is going for it, that complicates matters a bit, no?

Guest: How many questions do you have piled up?  What’s your criteria for answering a question?

Kevin Goldstein: Hundreds; Ones the are interesting or fun, are where the answer might be interesting or fun. There are certainly types of questions I tend to avoid…

A cat: Would an international draft put an end to overseas baseball academies and limit talent pool?

Kevin Goldstein: The talent pool is debatable, but it certainly would not affect academies. Most of those players are spending their first year or two of their careers at the acadamies.

Gorman: Did you ever have negotiations/discussions with players who represented themselves?

Kevin Goldstein: I have not. I do like it when players are very involved, and I have had players who wanted to talk to directly to me (or the manager) as part of the negotiations, and honestly I always appreciated it when players were that involved.

DAvid: In a lockout/strike situation shouldn’t both sides have reps in a rooming working on something everyday for the 8 hour work day until an agreement is made?

Kevin Goldstein: In a perfect world, maybe? Again, there’s just no impetus for real discussions right now.

Kevin Goldstein: Ok, entering the final minutes….

Dave: What are your thoughts on Yanks pop-up prospect Anthony Garcia?   Huge power.   Small sample size of results.

Kevin Goldstein: Just massive power. Also a K rate of nearly 40% so LOTS of work still to be done.

Ed: What could possibly be the hold up on Verlander not yet signing? Any wild guesses

Kevin Goldstein: There’s a lot of possibilities. Some of them are meaningless and some are meaningful and it would be kind of irresponsible to speculate.

Craig: How big a consideration is Volpe when the Yankees consider signing Correa?

Kevin Goldstein: It shouldn’t be.

Kevin Goldstein: Ok, folks, thanks for all the great questions. I’ll see you next week for more chat fun.