Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat – 3/7/2022

Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone. Great to be chatting again, these are always a blast. It’s an important time here at FanGraphs. The lockout sucks for everyone, and we need your help so please read David Appleman’s note on the site today at https://blogs.fangraphs.com/were-asking-for-your-help-as-we-navigate-t… and please consider supporting FanGraphs if you enjoy these chats, and all of the great words and audio we produce here. We love doing it, it’s clear that people love consuming it, and we need your support. Ok, let’s go.

Max: Are former MLB players on minor league deals in minor league camp?

Kevin Goldstein: If they’re not on the 40-man, yes.

Kevin Goldstein: Also, mad props to the person who commented on the chat to complain about it before it even started!

Max: How are AAA teams going to fill out rosters if this lockout stretches til April and 40-man roster guys are still unavailable?

Kevin Goldstein: By moving guys up. Really no other way. Every team is going to have 3-4-5 players that are locked out and creating roster holes.

MLBMovingAvg: Hi Kevin

I’ve been searching high and low for either a more granular explanation of a non-traditional shift, or even an example of one. I keep coming up short.

I went to Neil Weinberg’s definition on Fangraphs of traditional shift, which is very detailed:

Traditional Shifts:

1) If there are 3 infielders playing on one side of the infield, we consider that a Full Ted Williams Shift.

2) If two players are positioned significantly out of their normal position, we consider that a Partial Ted Williams Shift.

3) If one infielder is playing deep into the outfield (Usually the 2B 10+ feet out into right field), we consider that a Partial Ted Williams Shift. If the 2B is only a few steps into the outfield, that does not count.

For non-traditional, there isn’t a clear definition, it just says whatever doesn’t fall under any of the rules above.

”Non-traditional shifts are situational shifts not covered under the definition of traditional shifts.”

Thanks!

Kevin Goldstein: You’re getting into a weird area in that the teams that are though of as heavy shifters, are not doing it out of rote. It’s not a hey, we shift this guy, so I stand here. Teams have very specific defensive positioning for each individual batter. Sometimes it’s clearly dramatic, and other times not so much. I think the teams that do it a lot are technically 100% in non-traditional shifts, because it’s not a rote shift as much as it’s player-specific defensive positioning.

joe: Opening day o/u 7/1?

Kevin Goldstein: Way under.

Sad mlb fan: When do you predict a CBA deal will get done ?

Kevin Goldstein: March 25th.

Dev: Have heard that baseball is growing in Argentina due to Venezuelans moving there – is this more of a grassroots thing or something teams are monitoring for scouting purposes (if it’s even a thing at all)?

Kevin Goldstein: Not yet. In terms of baseball, things are aligned pretty well because one of the largest influxes of people leaving the situation in VZ has been in the Dominican Republic.

Enlightening Round: If i can get to a U. of Arkansas game, who should I be watching closely? I’ve seen as many as 7 of their players are highly draftable.

Kevin Goldstein: Robert Moore is obviously the dude there, but with conference games starting, you’ll have plenty of real draft prospects to see on both teams most weekends.

Dalton Wilcox: Would you say Brennen Davis can be Spring-esque OFer? More Haniger?

Kevin Goldstein: If we thought he’d be Springer, he’d rank higher. Obviously there’s a chance he hits that right side of expected outcomes, but also obvious that it’s very dangerous to assume that.

Scott: Soto turned down the Nationals $350 million offer. Do teams in that position ever come back a few months later and say, “OK, how about $400 million?”

Kevin Goldstein: Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Unsatisfying answer, but the truth.

troke: What do you make of the idea that the league always intended to cancel the first few weeks, because they lose money on those games anyway?

Kevin Goldstein: I think intended is a bit strong, but I do think they weren’t overly concerned with losing April games on a financial level.

troke: How difficult is it for the league to get concensus from the owners? Do the owners that tend to spend more also want a hard cap (or high CBT penalties) to save themselves from themselves, or are they against the it so that they can better separate themselves from the have-nots?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think there is owner consensus at all. One of the biggest challenges this negotiation has is the need for 23 owners to agree.

copecru: How much is the lockout affecting minor leaguers on the 40 man roster career progression? The Mariners (and others) are taking it in the shorts with their pitching prospects and Julio and Al Rodriguez.

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think it’s affecting them yet, and really probably won’t until April.

Alex Long: What is your opinion on the shift being banned and do you think it will make a major difference?

Kevin Goldstein: I’m against it. Teams should be allowed to innovate.

Topher: Big if, but if the season gets shortened a substantial amount to about like 90 games, could a reliever have a shot at the Cy Young Award with a 2021 first half Kimbrel type year?

Kevin Goldstein: I have no idea. I don’t try to understand how the BBWAA vote.

Lars: Which CLE starter prospect mentioned in the T100 chat are you higher on, Peyton Battenfield or Cody Morris?

Kevin Goldstein: Battenfield, but there might be some bias there from being involved in his draft selection.

Josh: Are you still sticking with 140-150 games this season or has anything changed?

Kevin Goldstein: Still there…

Bob: If Joshua Baez can show some decent bat-to-ball skills this year, is he a top 100 prospect next year?  Dudes got light tower power.

Kevin Goldstein: Sure, but there is danger is these kind of questions because there are 50 prospects with power like Baez and bat-to-ball issues and any one of them could boost their stock with more contact.

Captain Moonlight: Would the best internationally-inclined teams be hurt more, or the worst teams helped more, by the implementation of an international draft?

Kevin Goldstein: Hurt. Makes it harder to out work and out scout other teams.

Guest: Can you tell the owners that we don’t need expanded playoffs because the teams already play six days a week for six months and if they can’t figure out who is the best team by the end of the season then they never will. And then when the owners say they want the TV revenue from expanded playoffs just tell them to field more competitive teams and more people will want to see the regular season. Thanks

Kevin Goldstein: Sure, but the goal of extended playoffs is not to figure out who the best team is, it’s just about revenue.

GBS42: Any luck with the house hunting?

Kevin Goldstein: Gigantic sigh followed by me banging my head on my desk to the point of unconsciousness.

Dave: If the PA broke off and started their own league, and the owners brought on the next best players as replacements, how long do you think it would take for the PA’s league to be equal in popularity to the replacement players’ league? I feel like it would be quicker than most people think, I don’t think most fans realize exactly how elite MLB players are and would miss the quality.

Kevin Goldstein: It would be quick, I agree, but the logistics of it in today’s world with things like stadiums to play in and TV deals make it impossible.

Bob: Which on-the-field rule changes do you want to see implemented, if any, and why?

Kevin Goldstein: I think the pitch clock solves 95% of the pace of play issues.

Shodai: How many Ozeki do you think we have come May Tournament? With the story of my long covid, and your guy Takakeisho beaten up this could be a rough year.

Kevin Goldstein: It’s weird with two of them being kadoban right now. I bet one doesn’t make it, so I’ll say two going into May. If you want my crazy prediction, I’ll go with Hoshoryu getting to Ozeki by the end of the year. This has been your sumo minute! Next tourney starts next week!

NotAA: With Jud Fabian showing such an improvement in whiffs/Swing decisions so far do you see him as a 1st Rounder if he keeps it up?

Kevin Goldstein: If he keeps it up? Yes. Jury is still out on that, and we need to see it in conference play.

Mac: How would you value these players: SEC 2B good perfomer, JC SS,  HS toolsy athlete?

Kevin Goldstein: I would say I have about 3.183% of the information I need to answer that question.

JWR: What would be the best way for MLB to change the rules to reduce K and to increase balls in play?

Kevin Goldstein: The best way would be not to try to create rules to do that.

Mac: How much influence do you think Scott Boras really has in these negotiations.

Kevin Goldstein: Not nearly as much as MLB would like you to think.

Mitch: Do teams try to quantify the difference between wood and metal bats when evaluating college hitters? Also, have you ever evaluated a hitter who looked completely different when using wood compared to metal?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes and yes. There’s a basic formula for adjusting exit velocities, but the biggest issue is sweet spot contact, as metal bats are basically one giant sweet spot.

Nick: Who votes on a new CBA for the players?  The whole union or just the exec committee?

Kevin Goldstein: The exec committee, with constant communication from the players will approve a deal and then the entire union votes to ratify.

Pat Listachio: i request your opinion of the filmmaker Wes Anderson

Kevin Goldstein: I really like his movies.

JWR: How do fans switch back to loving baseball when the owners sure don’t care about us and it is hard to see the principle involved when the players will at a minimum be improving on the prior CBA that they played under for five years?

Kevin Goldstein: I think it’s a very personal decision. I love the game and love watching players and can push that stuff to the side while doing it. If you can’t, I get it.

Head Banger’s Ball: Stop banging your head, Kevin, that can’t be good for you.  Couldn’t spring training be reduced to two weeks with the idea that pitchers would be coming out even earlier during the first two weeks of the regular season?  Spring training sucks for most fans anyway.

Kevin Goldstein: Spring training sucks for teams too. It’s too damn long. I think in a normal world it could be four weeks, but I think we’d still need four weeks this year as well.

Guest: To bring back some movie discussion: Meh/Like/Love the following: High Fidelity/Full Metal Jacket/Chariot of Fire/Blazing Saddles/Three Colors trilogy

Kevin Goldstein: Like/Love/Like/Like/Need to see.

Head Banger’s Ball: What about the effect be of a rule limiting teams to say 10 pick off moves/game?  Would that be a good way to emphasize speed a bit more?

Kevin Goldstein: So after ten pick off moves, every walk or single turns into an automatic triple? Is that what you want?

Guest: Extend the Sumo minute! Do you like Ura? He has become a favorite of mine lately.

Kevin Goldstein: I absolutely adore Ura. He’s just wonderful and nobody looks like they are having more fun that he does. MORE SUMO.

Didace: “the goal of extended playoffs is not to figure out who the best team is”   The goal of any playoff, from high school state championships to March Madness to the Super Bowl, is not to figure out who the best team is, it’s to figure out the champion of the playoffs. Big playoffs are fine, the trick is not to devalue the regular season. I think for MLB 12 teams is fine. 14 is pushing it.

Kevin Goldstein: If we are talking solely about devaluing the season, I don’t see how 12 to 14 is a big issue. You’re talking about 40% or 46% of the teams.

171: Hypothetical: If the Mets continue to wildly spend over the CBT and go on a Yankee’s-esc run of several WS wins in a row, do you think that that will result in a couple other owners following suit to replicate it, or most other owners lobbying the league to do something about it? I think I already know what the likely answer is but wanted to see what you thought.

Kevin Goldstein: Both. I think you’d see a couple other owners following suit to replicate it and most other owners lobbying the league to do something about it.

Guille: Related to previous question, I’m in Uruguay (across the river from Argentina) and the venezuelan/cuban/dominican influx in the past decade has been huge, so that there’s Baseball and Softball being played here regularly. Certainly a thing to keep in mind.

Kevin Goldstein: Sharing with the group. Baseball continues to grow in Brazil as well.

Kyle B: Over/under 150.5 games played?

Kevin Goldstein: Under, but not a huge bet on that.

RaginCajun: Scenario, batter can see into the future. Pitcher can read minds. Who wins the at bat?

Kevin Goldstein: Fun question. I think it would be a bit of a wash.

Kyle B: So how guaranteed is another lockout in 5 years? With this ownership group, I feel like this is going to become the norm the way the NHL was for years

Kevin Goldstein: A distinct possibility. These two sides clearly very much do not like each other.

Tim F: Is 162 definitely off the table? I still think they play at least 154

Kevin Goldstein: Nothing is totally off the table on March 7, but 162 off the table is getting very close.

Teddy: Mr. ZiPS projects Yordan to have like the 7th-highest WAR in all of baseball. Where do you put him in your off-the-cuff ranking of best hitters in baseball right now?

Kevin Goldstein: In terms of total damage, definitely in the top 10.

Guest: How much MLB baseball do you consume, and how much amateur baseball? Which is your preferred level?

Kevin Goldstein: MLB is daily for me. I always have college games on during the weekend. Lots of minors stuff to. I like watching major league baseball on TV the most, but I like attending minor/amateur games better.

Scotty: KG! Did you see Dune?

Kevin Goldstein: Just the David Lynch one!

14343: Who hit the hardest ball you’ve ever seen hit in person?

Kevin Goldstein: Majors: Giancarlo Stanton. College: Hunter Bishop. High School: Elijah Cabell.

Didace: “I don’t see how 12 to 14 is a big issue”  Historically, a much greater chance of a .500 or below club getting in with 7 teams per league.

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, still don’t see the big issue.

Appa Yip Yip: Have you discovered the power of Fashion Souls? It doesn’t matter if you die a thousand times as long as you look cool doing it.

Kevin Goldstein: I look cool. I want to wear the cat helmet, but it’s too heavy for now. Also, I beat Magrit at 1:30am last night, so in terms of Elden Ring, everything is going great right now.

Teddy: How did you like Houston as a city? Favorite/least favorite part?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t know that I ever go a great feel for it. If I was there, it was for baseball, so I was at the ballpark or at a hotel near the ballpark. Never really explored the place.

JR: Once the parties agree to terms on a new CBA, how long do you estimate it’ll take before it’s ratified and the players are back to work?

Kevin Goldstein: I would anticipate camps opening about seven days after the joint presser saying that baseball is back.

copecru: What percentage of people over 4o play video games?

Kevin Goldstein: I bet it’s higher than people think. They’re hardly a niche thing at this point. I’m 52, and I play a lot. My wife is older than me and still plays Animal Crossing every day.

Jeb: Do you use online guides / websites for Elden Ring? I did for Dark Souls, haven’t looked once for Elden Ring and I’m surprisingly happy not doing so. My character is definitely suboptimal, but the feeling of exploration and not playing to a checklist is ++++.

Kevin Goldstein: I have a couple of times when I’ve found some weird obtuse item. I got a sewing needle and looked it up. Just scanned the page and now I know that I can’t use it, but at some point I might run into someone who wants it.

Guest: you dont mind 14 team playoffs? Doesn’t it turn playoffs into even more of a lottery?

Kevin Goldstein: They’re a total lottery now.

Brad G: How much do you think baseball falls off because of this lockout? I’m holding out hope that there’s 150+ games and a crazy few weeks of free agency/trades actually sparks the league the way it did for the NBA in 2012.

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think a ton if we get 140+. If this stretches into May, we have a problem.

JWR: Is having a third pitch for starters less important now since starters are now only going 5-6 innings/start?

Kevin Goldstein: I think so, that and we get to worked up on depth anyway. If you can physically start and just have two good pitches, that’s fine in my opinion.

Me: What’s the dress code for MLB front offices?

Kevin Goldstein: Team to team. Most teams are business casual, but I know of a couple that are full casual and I know of one where suiting up daily is expected.

171: Unpopular opinion but I don’t really care if the postseason is 10, 12 or 14. It’s already a crapshoot as to who wins it all in the end, and series would have to be 40+ games long to get anywhere close to ensuring the better team wins each time. Fans just need to understand that the regular season is much closer to a competition of who the best team is, and the post season is a fun tournament in the end for the top clubs.

Kevin Goldstein: I join you in your unpopular opinion.

171: Do you think that a team could survive (barring injuries) with a pitching staff of all guys who can throw 3-4 innings every 3-4 days? I have a feeling that if baseball continues down the brutal efficiency route that this could be attempted at some point.

Kevin Goldstein: Yes, this definitely could be attempted at some point.

Romorr: I’m fine with the opinion as long as the top seed gets a better advantage. Ghost wins sounds fine to me, or a 3 game series where the top seed gets all 3 at home. Making the team with the most wins have a better advantage at least early on.

Kevin Goldstein: I’m also of this opinion.

Me: What kind of food do Astros employees get? Typical office food? Is it same as players? Worse?

Kevin Goldstein: Lunch is on you. If there’s a home game, you can do media dining.

Phil: Important question that came up on Effectively Wild: is a pitcher who throws underhand a submarINer or a subMARiner?

Kevin Goldstein: I’m going to say the former, and yet, I’ll be fine if you say the latter.

Andrew: Really digging the new Bartees Strange track.  Any newer songs that you would recommend?

Kevin Goldstein: Listen to Dry Cleaning.

171: Did you have your own office at the ballpark or was there like a communal workspace for people who weren’t primarily working out of Houston?

Kevin Goldstein: I had a desk in an area that the analysts used. Having an office would have been an inefficient use of space.

B Iff: How much more emphasis if any is placed on those prospects who played in a wooden bat league.

Kevin Goldstein: Cape performance is huge. Some because of the bats, some because of the level of competition.

Kingpin: Could the union, or a group of players, organize a series of games in college stadiums in CA, FL, TX, etc. to make money to fund the union’s lockout stipend fund?

Kevin Goldstein: I believe so. I think a barnstorming home run derby tour thing would be fun too.

Phil: Here’s one thing I’m having trouble understanding. Why did Manfred say that delaying the season start would be “disastrous,” when he must have known, based on what the owners’ proposals were, that that would happen? It seems like it doesn’t really put that much pressure on the union, but exacerbates the general sense that MLB is in crisis and also that Manfred is not that good at negotiating. Wouldn’t the tough negotiating position be, “We’ll wait as long as it takes?”

Kevin Goldstein: There’s a massive PR game being played, and on both sides. Every statement you see is meticulously crafted.

Mitch: Are all major league front offices actually located at the ballpark? Or do teams use other locations as well?

Kevin Goldstein: Almost every one. I know of a couple that are not, but like across the street or something. Everyone is right there, as it were.

Guest: Do you have any sense of ownership concern of the damage a lockout and missed games causes? It feels like very little based on the way negotiations have gone.

Kevin Goldstein: I think they’ve been exceptionally short sighted for the most part.

JWR: Very glad you are back but what do you miss most about working in a major league front office?

Kevin Goldstein: I do miss having some skin in the game, if that makes sense.

Chris: How staggered would people be to learn what average team revenue is each (non pandemic) season? Like are we talking >$600M?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s complicated, and why simply ‘opening the books’ isn’t the total answer. There’s so much adjacent revenue. Teams charge for parking, but often teams have side companies that they own that run the parking so it’s not directly baseball revenue. Even bigger is all of the real estate holding around ballparks, that are also technically not on the books.

David: Why don’t we just have a pitch clock yet? Seems like such an easy solution. Do players really hate it that much?

Kevin Goldstein: They’ll come around. All of the players are coming up with it in the minors.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: What was the worst interaction you had with someone from another team’s front office?

Kevin Goldstein: Can’t see I ever had some kind of extremely bad one to be honest. I had a couple of ugly ones with agents, but that’s part of the job….

troke: Do players get any proceeds from merch sales or does that all go to the team?

Kevin Goldstein: If it’s player licensed stuff, yes they do.

Thame: How soon could we see expansion? Is that even being discussed in this CBA fiasco?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s not being discussed, and I think MLB is waiting for some level of normalness, which we haven’t had since 2019(!) to talk about it.

Jughead: What’s to stop the players from bowing out of the home run derby and all star games?

Kevin Goldstein: Nothing.

Mitch: If a “smart” team like the Rays, Dodgers, etc. call and ask for a player who is not super highly thought of by your org, does that make a FO question that player? Like, would they do a deeper analysis on that player to try to figure out what they are missing and why that team wants him?

Kevin Goldstein: It certainly should!

171: I bought Elden Ring on saturday, played it for about 2 hours and then requested a refund on steam. It was my first go at a souls game and I just decided that it wasn’t for me.

Kevin Goldstein: That’s fine. It’s not for everyone. It either clicks for you or not. Like what you like.

Otto: Favorite tv show?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t know. We really enjoyed All Of Us Are Dead on Netflix which we just finished. I like some of the mumblecore out there like Joe Pera and John Wilson’s work.

Jon: How long have teams like the Astros, Dodgers and Rays had access to “Stuff+” numbers to evaluate pitchers? How many years ahead are the FOs on advanced metrics?

Kevin Goldstein: They are ahead, I don’t know about years, but they are definitely doing things well beyond Stuff+.

Hal: What do you think about MLB awarding a trophy to the team with the best regular-season record, like what NHL does with the President’s Trophy? Could even add a bonus for players/teams for additional incentive.

Kevin Goldstein: I didn’t know the NHL did that, but I like it.

Rob Baine: What’s the minimum amount of games in your opinion that would make this a full season? Let’s be honest nobody thinks 162 is needed. For me 146 is the sweet spot. Somewhere between 146-152. (I’m sorry but the 60 game season in 2020 was as Mickey Mouse as it gets)

Kevin Goldstein: I think 154 would be great.

Otto: Are the “sticky stuff” inspections staying this year?

Kevin Goldstein: Haven’t heard anything on that. I do think we’re going to see a pre-tacked ball at some point soon.

Guest: It’s apparent that Rob Manfred is failing miserably at getting the owners to agree on a CBA. Will someone (other than a goverment appointed mediator) have to step in and if so who is that person?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t know who this superhero is, but that person isn’t coming. It’s really down to these two sides as they are.

Raquel: Where does a guy like Ben Joyce – throwing 103mph – fit in the draft?

Kevin Goldstein: There’s a weekend college notebook coming very soon, and I talk about just that!

Prospect Age: Just looking at Francisco Alvarez, I have a hard time believing he is only 20 years old. Is age deception still an intermittent problem in the prospectverse?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s very rare, and almost unheard of with VZ players.

Jacob: Do you think that robo-umps will decrease steals, the thinking being that catcher’s primary focus will be cutting down runners and there will be no focus needed on framing?

Kevin Goldstein: Never thought about that perspective, but I’m kinda interested in thinking about it now . . .

bb: How much would someone have to pay you to get you to listen to Sting’s new version of “Russians”?

Kevin Goldstein: Untold millions.

Jacob: What advice do you have for young people trying to get into baseball writing (as a passion and potentially as a career)?

Kevin Goldstein: A. Start writing. Even if it’s just a blog for yourself or something. Start doing it.

Mark: As a long time fan, I think it’s too “easy” to hit home runs these days. Since stadium fences can’t be moved back, using limited flight baseballs would force a lot of players to stop swinging for the fences every at bat. The real sluggers would still get their dingers, but others would be forced to just put the ball in play and, voila, the shifting issues disappear. Stolen bases would become valuable again.Thoughts?

Kevin Goldstein: I’m just not for any kind of dramatic changes to the game like this. I think they bring about tons of unintended consequences and I’m fine with the game changing organically.

Kevin Goldstein: Ok, reaching the final moments. We’re in the stretch as they say, so get your final questions in now.

Otto: What position should the pirates focus at the draft?

Kevin Goldstein: The position where the best player available is.

bb: Amazing how one can suffer “biblical losses” but still have billions to buy a soccer team, isn’t it?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s like how every time Facebook stock is down someone writes Mark Zuckerberg lost $X billion today and we’re support to be upset for him or something.

Mike: Seiya Suzuki. Where would he fit on top 100 prospect list?

Kevin Goldstein: In the teens somewhere. I feel strongly that he should NOT be ranked on a prospect list.

My frields call me whiskers: Regarding the wooden vs. metal bat question from a while back….do top college hitters ever use wooden bats for the entire season (when the rest of the team is using metal), to speed up the transition to pro-ball?

Kevin Goldstein: Nah. They’d be hurting the team. A lot of them, and even more high schoolers take BP with wood for the scouts.

Ricksy: Would a shift restriction that requires 4 fielders to stay on the dirt be more appealing to you than a 2 per side situation?

Kevin Goldstein: Not really. If a team wants to put all seven fielders other than the batter at third base, go ahead and do it.

Jon: Do you like Baz or Rodriguez more?

Kevin Goldstein: The top 100 prospects are right there for you! Grayson is the best pitching prospect in baseball.

Jacob: Why don’t you think Suzuki should be included on prospects lists?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s just apples and oranges. He’s 27, he has an established track record in NPB. He’s a rookie, but he’s not really a prospect.

Mac: Why can’t the domestic draft have a rotating order and ability to trade picks?

Kevin Goldstein: I’ve always been a strong advocate for allowing for the trading of picks.

chilly: what % of the questions you get relate or seem to relate to fantasy baseball?

Kevin Goldstein: Not super high. People realize that I tend not to answer them. Sporer and the fantasy team MUCH better equipped to do that.

Brandon: Thanks for all the work you all do!

Kevin Goldstein: Thank you for coming and participating in the chat! This is a good spot to end and remind everyone that FanGraphs needs your support. Go check out the home page, and if you have the means, please support us and thank you! See you next week.