Kiley McDaniel Chat – 1/16/19
12:18 |
: Hello from ATL, just returned from Seattle and some delightful time with Eric and Meg including (huge shocker) great food and also Driveline Pro Day, which we’ll be writing up soon |
12:18 |
: Scout is wandering around the house trying to decide on which toy to play with while I’m at the computer |
12:18 |
Kyle Wright or Ian Anderson have the stuff of a number one in the making? : Does |
12:19 |
Cliff Lee and maybe Jacob deGrom, but we see most of them coming (i.e. they were deemed to have ace upside before they did ace things). So, very unlikely for Wright/Anderson. Both have a chance to be a #2 but I would say #3 is what you’re realistically hoping for, which is a perennial 3 WAR player : We don’t see every #1 starter coming in advance, like |
12:21 |
: If we say every pro pitcher has some non-zero chance of being an ace or every position player has some chance of putting up a 5 WAR season (call it 0.1%), Wright/Anderson are maybe 1-5%, so don’t plan on it, but they’re still elite in that they’re over 1% and that’s a very small population of pitchers. |
12:21 |
: And I’m eye-balling those numbers, but I think that rings true |
12:21 |
: A lot has been made of the growing gap between the amount of revenue the Yankees generate and the amount they put into payroll. Has the amount of money they spend on player development replaced some of the money they spend on payroll? |
12:22 |
: As far as I know, they spend pretty freely on infrastructure and I’m pretty sure they have the biggest international staff and are probably close to if not the biggest amateur/draft staff, so yes. If you mean they spend $20M more than everyone else, then pretty sure that’s a no. |
12:23 |
: Is there anything in the CBA that prevents teams from paying minor leaguers more money? |
12:27 |
: Not that I’m aware of. I think technically offering draftees a significantly higher salary would be against the “circumventing the bonus pools in any way we haven’t yet outlined.” That’s also in a contract that has no guaranteed money (can release at any time for no cost). Paying draftees six-year FA money (the highest salary in a minors-only deal is like $150k, more common high salary would be like $100k for Quad-A types with no MLB language) wouldn’t really change the bonuses much and just infuriate MLB and the other owners for moving the bar up when you didn’t have to. |
12:27 |
Sean Hjelle or Jake Wong? I’ll hang up and listen : Toss Up: |
12:28 |
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2018-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1 : Hjelle. He was 53 vs. Wong at 93 in the pre-draft rankings. |
12:29 |
: If we haven’t gotten to your team yet, the year-end MILB rankings or the J2/draft ones are going to be the same grade we come up for the list like 85% of the time. |
12:29 |
: How excited should Royals fans be about their young arms? Could Lynch, Kowar, Singer, De La Rosa, etc… accelerate the rebuild? Potential for a 2015 Mets type impact in 2020? |
12:30 |
Nate Pearson the year before) : Early returns sound positive, but doesn’t seem like a rare, once every 5-10 years group of talent. But to have that months after the draft would mean the other 29 teams all drafted pretty poorly. You’re lucky to get one 1st rounder that was misjudged this quickly (like |
12:30 |
: How do you resolve arguments about a player where the scouting says one thing and the stats another? |
12:30 |
: YELL LOUDER |
12:32 |
: Eric and I dig deeper and figure out which piece of info has more truth in it, either by calling more scouts or digging into the details of why their stats don’t agree with the reports. It’s normally pretty easy to figure out. We struggle with the guys where it’s soon after a big injury or lowly-drafted player with significantly different reports/stats than pre-draft and we’re trying to factor in things that we don’t know much about now but will know a lot more about in a few months. We’ll be quick to adjust up/down as it becomes clear early in the season and also flag that guy to be someone we try to see ourselves. |
12:33 |
Griffin Conine because of his last name. He had S&M issues on PEDs and now won’t be on them post suspension. Talk me off the ledge. : First time, long time; thanks for taking my question! As a Blue Jays fan I can’t help but feel like we wasted a pick on |
12:33 |
: lol ok well it’s one second round pick and most of those return nothing anyway |
12:34 |
: secondly Conine raked on the Cape and has plus raw power, so, no amazingly, no matter how much fans think so, no player gets drafted because of his last name…aside from the 30th round favor/doesn’t sign thing. That’s often about their name. |
12:35 |
Ken Griffey Sr’s son is WAY more likely to be good at specifically baseball than you or even another really good high school showcase circuit player. : also I would argue that last name should matter some b/c that are genetic things (health, eyes, etc.) that appear to be passed down more often from former MLB players than from non-MLB players. It’s literally science, but not clear in how we understand that, but there’s a reason that |
12:36 |
: And some of that may be instruction at an early age, exposure to the clubhouse, etc. but you aren’t getting that, so it is an unfair advantage they have |
12:36 |
Jesus Sanchez, is this the time for him to jump into the FV55 tier? : Rays’ system overview coming up next. What do you guys think of |
12:37 |
: Rays list will be locked shortly, have a last call after I finish here. It’s super crazy long and there’s lots of fun pop up names that I’m pretty sure you won’t know because I didn’t know a lot of them until the last week. |
12:37 |
: Sanchez is tough because it all comes down to his approach |
12:37 |
: It could improve a good bit and lets him reach his upside of 6 hit/6 power, above D in RF |
12:38 |
Avisail Garcia…and he gets nontendered by the Rays and signs with the White Sox 5 years from now. : or it could stay about where it is and he’s |
12:38 |
: That’s a good example of the “tough to project, but it’s high variance so we’ll be quick to adjust when it looks like it’s turning up/down in-season” type of player |
12:39 |
: How would you rank the 2013 J2 class now. What order would you put Devers, Torres and Jimenez as they enter the 2019 season. Does the 2017 class have a chance to be as good as the 2013 class appears to be. |
12:39 |
: I have a project kinda like this coming up actually |
12:43 |
|
12:43 |
: Numbers 1, 2, 3, 5 and 9 were at the MLB J2 showcase, I believe it was the first one and I was on four of those five, but kinda tossed out Albies b/c he was so tiny (shrugs) |
12:44 |
: Does this looking back at a J2 class sort of thing interest you as #content
Bro! (91.6% | 265 votes)
Nah (8.3% | 24 votes)
Total Votes: 289
|
12:46 |
: And yes, that’s a very strong J2 class |
12:46 |
: For reference, 2017 includes |
12:50 |
Wander Franco (TBR) sadly, Daniel Flores (C, BOS) may have been #3 on this list behind Ohtani/Franco if he hadn’t tragically died. Some truly insane tools, really fun to watch. |
12:50 |
: Those are all potential 50 or better FV guys in the next couple years, so that’s also very strong |
12:51 |
: there’s one more sleeper for TBR from that class that’s a 40 FV on their list |
12:51 |
: Is it shady that the Padres are openly discussing trading Kluber with other teams even though he’s still an Indian? |
12:52 |
: Nope, pretty standard for the active GM types like Preller and Dipoto. CIN is flush at 3B (Suarez, who won’t move with Senzel and India on the way) and wants pitching but CLE is flush at IF for now, so they don’t really need what CIN may be selling, while so SDP sees an opportunity as they need 3B and Preller loves inserting himself into situations. |
12:53 |
: It’s really just like trading food at lunch, except it’s people and they’re all millionaries |
12:53 |
: (players and GMs, that is) |
12:53 |
: Seems like a lot of talk about the braves not being willing to sign a free agent attached to a qualifying offer because they don’t want to lose the draft pick. Wouldn’t a trade for madbum make sense? It would thin out their AAA pitching prospect pool while at the same time strengthening the mlb rotation AND(hopefully) put the braves in position to offer madbum a qualifying offer at the end of 2019. If he and josh Donaldson left after 1 season, the braves would at least be able to restock the farm. |
12:54 |
: Decent thought there. Could also get a stopgap RF (even Markakis) and mix with Riley and if its not working, then trade for someone in-season or even throw Camargo out there if he’s hitting. There’s still a lot of options outside of Harper/Pollock |
12:55 |
Isaac Paredes, especially of his power? It was maybe depressed in the Florida State and Eastern leagues, but some of his underlying numbers (estimated FB distance) did not look too good either. I love the rest of his profile, but I am reticent about calling him a building block for the Tigers if he really lacks power. Thanks. : Oh Kiley you’re so fine, I would love your thoughts on the upside of |
12:55 |
Jose Tabata’s stats and you’ll see similarities. : Numbers are very good and there’s some skills, but it is an aggressive approach and I wonder if he’s an early-peaking type of player due to a number of factors. Go check out |
12:56 |
Austin Meadows seems to fit the Marlins ask of a young, MLB ready left-handed OF. Does Avi Garcia make Meadows expendable or am I reading way too far into a $3.5M deal? : The Rays have remained in on Realmuto, and |
12:57 |
: I think Avisail Garcia is a low-cost gamble on a guy with bonkers tools that could be a 4 WAR player for way less than those cost on the open market…and otherwise they’re out $3.5M which isn’t much even to TB |
12:58 |
: Are there any players who fit the Soto/Kiriloff category? As in they were highly regarded signings/draft picks but their prospect rankings have been hurt by an injury. If so, any capable a Soto/Kiriloff type of rise in the rankings by mid-summer? Not counting Robles. Gracias! |
12:58 |
Drew Waters (CF, ATL) who was depressed a bit due to a terrible debut summer and being a 2nd round pick but if he keeps hitting he’ll move up and the tools are there. : Hmmm not an exact match but I would direct you to |
12:59 |
Vidal Brujan was a top searched player soon after I answered a question a few weeks ago about him being a top 25 overall prospect at some point in 2019. If you aren’t on that bandwagon GET ON NOW : And secondly, I noticed |
1:00 |
Nick Madrigal and say they’re the next little 2B that will be better than you think and it’s insane that we had like zero of these and now there’s a ton but…there’s another one. : Eric and I talk about Albies and Luis Urias and |
1:00 |
: and there’s one on the back end of the Rays list that their people think could be the next Brujan |
1:00 |
: What do you make out of the Mets infield situation? Do they trade Rosario, or does he rot on the bench? |
1:01 |
: Frazier-Rosario-Cano-Alonso, Lowrie/McNeil rotate all over IF and OF, trade Dom Smith |
1:02 |
: I think Lowrie is better than Frazier and I worry that McNeil won’t get used enough if the OF gets healthy or they try to keep Dom Smith, but that’s one injury/trade away from not being an issue |
1:02 |
Dominic Smith, btw : I think a non-contending team that’s in need of 1B should trade for |
1:02 |
: Have you seen what Grandal said about why he turned down the Mets offer? Does it make sense to you? I’m not sure it makes sense to me. Seems like there’s something missing from this story. |
1:03 |
: I wondered that too. That raising the market for catchers a million or two in AAV was worth leaving $42M guaranteed on the table? Couldn’t you just give those guys some of your money? If that’s all that was behind it, the Union is doing some truly terrible brainwashing |
1:04 |
: I also wonder if Grandal was actually offered $60M guaranteed |
1:04 |
: The artist formerly known as Bossman Junior is back! |
1:04 |
: I feel much better about this now, I won’t mess up his name |
1:04 |
: hey kiley. i know the padres system is very good but they can’t really get away with asking for kluber (who has a team friendly contract if i remember correctly) with their top 5 prospects not in play, can they??? |
1:07 |
: I think so? Maybe some combination of Margot/Franchy, Paddack/Lucchesi and some sub top-5 hitting prospects? |
1:07 |
: SDP has the bullets, but not clear they have the willingness and the types of pieces that CLE wants |
1:12 |
: So, ballparking it, Kluber is worth something like $60M ($40M/3 in salary, roughly 10 WAR/$100M over that period). Probably not a top 10-20 overall prospect on the table at the moment, so it’s more multiple top pieces. |
1:13 |
Shed Long or Nick Solak? : More likely to make a big league impact this season: |
1:13 |
: I like Solak more as a prospect but they’re pretty similar overall and both kinda blocked at the moment |
1:13 |
: similar in overall value, I mean |
1:14 |
: How long is this Rays list gonna be? |
1:14 |
: Like reports on over 50 players. SDP will be the only one close to that long |
1:14 |
: Not sure who will win that battle |
1:14 |
: Murray’s a 45 on the board, but there’s obviously a ton more NFL risk now than there was a few months ago. Would most teams still treat him as a 45 if Oakland decided to cut bait and shopped him today? |
1:15 |
: He’s kinda untradable right now. His value is kinda zero but might be something real in a few months. Can’t see Oakland trading him anytime soon |
1:16 |
: 2 draft questions: 1. If healthy, does Carter Stewart get picked higher or lower than where the Braves selected him (1-8) last June? 2. You have Andrew Vaughn at #6 on The Board, but isn’t it more likely he doesn’t make the top 10 because of height (5’11”), position (1B) and the fact that he’s a RH hitter? |
1:16 |
|
1:16 |
Kyle Dohy becomes Josh Hader or Spencer Howard becomes Aaron Nola? : Which is more likely. |
1:17 |
|
1:17 |
: With a lot of teams hiring away from Driveline do you see this creating rifts between player development and coaches similar to when the analytics were prioritized years ago? |
1:17 |
: The guy that gets to decide who is right is the one that hired the Driveline guy to a higher spot and more recently. Coaches that create conflict in that situation are very expendable. |
1:18 |
: There’s room to disagree and find solutions and whatnot, but antagonizing is not the way to win a battle like that |
1:18 |
: on either side, really |
1:19 |
: If the Padres asked for Senzel and were offering up Paddack how much more would the Padres need to add to get Senzel? |
1:19 |
: Our asset value work says another mid-top 100 prospect |
1:20 |
: Thoughts on Blast Motion? Worth an investment for my son heading into high school ball this year? |
1:20 |
: Reach out to Jason Ochart on twitter, he’s much more up on that than I am |
1:20 |
: What percentage of amateur prospects would you say use PEDs? |
1:21 |
: Single digit %, maybe just 1-2%. There’s pockets where its happened a good bit in the past and I’d say it happens very rarely outside of those programs/levels. Scouts know where it’s more common than 1-2%. |
1:21 |
: How bad is the strike going to be once the CBA expires? What leverage do the players have after giving up so much last time around… |
1:22 |
: I mean…other than the games not happening? |
1:22 |
: If the opener becomes a thing for realzees will teams begin to incorporate that approach on the Player Development side? |
1:23 |
: Well it started w/TB as more of making the most of what they had…but I would bet some team does this in the next year or two |
1:23 |
: Is Pete Alonso just a right handed Luke Duda? |
1:23 |
: Better hitter |
1:25 |
: Duda put up 6.9 WAR in his controlled years, so not like that isn’t close to Alonso’s mean projection right now, but I’d guess Alonso hits the ground running sooner than Duda and the peak should be the same if not a bit higher |
1:25 |
: That Red Sox bullpen is disgusting. Are there any arms in the minors that can make an impact for them? |
1:25 |
: take it easy, Mike |
1:26 |
: Who was the better baseball prospect: Patty Mahomes or Thomas Brady? Thanks! |
1:26 |
: Mahomes |
1:26 |
Alex Faedo even be an effect late-innings bullpen piece? : If his diminished velocity (89-91mph) is here to stay, can |
1:26 |
: Sure |
1:27 |
: How would you compare the offensive upsides of 45+ FV guys
|
1:28 |
: Newton is another guy that could be adjusted quickly in the season. I’ll likely see him in April. Lee is power corner guy that you hope gets to the contact, Ornelas is hit/raw power but hasn’t quite done it in games yet |
1:28 |
: offensively Ornelas is probably highest upside |
1:29 |
: Is there an MLB rule that mandates that front offices must fully disclose payroll info to the public? Sans the Braves, they’re not publically traded, so there isn’t any legal obligation. Seems like it could benefit teams like A’s/TB to hide how little they’re actually spending. |
1:30 |
: Well we know how much each player is making, so they can’t hide that much. And ATL is literally traded via a tracking stock symbol BATRA |
1:30 |
: Is Logan Gilbert a top 100 prospect if he regains his velocity? |
1:30 |
: Yes |
1:31 |
: Though it may be for naught, it was refreshing to see the MLB quickly apply some common sense to the Kyler Murray situation, and allow the A’s to offer him more $$. Conversely, what are the chances they will also grant the A’s a comp pick if he bolts for the NFL? Officially, they arent entitled to one, but seems like it would be more than reasonable to give them a comp pick. Situation is so unique that it wouldnt set a precedent |
1:32 |
Travis Swaggerty or whomever : There will be no comp pick if he leaves. The A’s will be out some fraction of whatever money he keeps (1/7 of the $1.5M if he leaves now) and the opportunity cost of taking like Logan Gilbert or |
1:32 |
: The risk of him leaving was baked in the decision to take the player |
1:33 |
: Also, it’s not a coincidence that MLB has underpaid coaches forever and once there competition via the SEC, they start paying more when they need to, to keep the talent. If Ohtani wanted to go to MLB or some other competing league with the same amount of money, MLB would’ve figured out a way to offer him more than their rules allowed. |
1:34 |
: But there’s no competition with almost anything that MLB or the 30 franchises do, so they can keep paying minor leaguers nothing, low level employees nothing, etc. |
1:34 |
: Now the NFL becomes a substitution for one player and all of a sudden the rules can be changed and MLB snaps into action |
1:35 |
: It’s sadly how things work and a bunch of billionaries in a pissing match over who can win the news cycle with Kyler as the prize |
1:35 |
: Do you think that the increase in popularity in your area of baseball expertise – prospects – is the main thrust behind the conversations of potential future labor stoppages? In other words, do you feel as though the increase in attention paid to farm systems and rebuilding, both by fans and front offices, is the main driver of the back-to-back slow off-seasons? |
1:35 |
: It’s a definite contributor |
1:37 |
: Could any of these 3 low-payroll teams be the surprise team for Machado: Rays, Pirates, Orioles |
1:37 |
: lol no |
1:37 |
: What are Nate Pearson’s reliever odds? |
1:37 |
: over 50% now |
1:37 |
: maybe 65%? |
1:38 |
Bryce Harper a 70 FV as an amateur? : Was |
1:39 |
: He was more 70 FV in the minors. I feel like generational talents in the draft are in the 65 FV range, which is still top 10 in the game |
1:39 |
: there isn’t even one 70 every year for us, so that means a JC kid is immediate #1 overall prospect and that feels heavy |
1:40 |
: How many proposals for a 3 team CIN SDG CLE trade have you gotten in the queue? And which has been most reasonable? |
1:40 |
: A lot. Not many. |
1:42 |
: Olney said the White Sox offer to Machado is 7/$175M. What do you think the odds are he ends up signing for under $200M? Somebody has to top that right? |
1:42 |
: It’s really embarrassing to watch this and have the clubs/MLB think that we’re buying it |
1:42 |
Casey Mize has as high of a ceiling as any SP and the probability of reaching something close to his ceiling isn’t terribly extreme, correct? : |
1:43 |
: Eh he’s basically at his ceiling and it’s pretty high, maybe a #2. I think he’s the pitching version of Alonso in that he’ll probably be better years 0-3 than 4-6 |
1:43 |
: In what ways is your current job better than working for a team? And vice versa? |
1:44 |
: I get to wake up/sleep/travel when I want and work from home and have a dog and do special projects as I’m interested in them. Working for a team is cool b/c you get to be directly involved in signing players. |
1:45 |
Prince Fielder beat that number 7 years ago. These are crazy times we’re living in… : Olney is reporting the WS offer to Machado is 7/175. |
1:45 |
: So far in this chat you’ve eluded to another Vidal Brujan in the Rays system and a 2017 J2 “sleeper” in the Rays system, currently 40 FV (there’s seemingly no such player). Are you referring to the same player? And, uh, who is it? |
1:45 |
: He’s not on the board now, but will be later this week |
1:46 |
Matt Chapman (or someone like him) from holding out? He’s got pretty serious leverage over a team that can’t make the playoffs without him and players in other sports do it all the time. If a near superstar level player on a rookie contract just doesn’t show up, I feel like they would have more power than they usually show. : Kiley, Kyler Murray’s got me thinking… What isn’t stop |
1:46 |
: This happens more in football b/c of non guaranteed deals and the much higher risk of career threatening injury…and b/c of that there’s less extension chances. Chapman could get $30-40M right now if he wants |
1:46 |
: Kiley you came too Seattle and you didn’t even tell us. I am so upset. |
1:47 |
: Do you think Mason Denaburg has mid rotation upside? |
1:47 |
: Yep, another guy that could get a quick hook up to 50 FV in 2019 |
1:48 |
: Favorite SEC players to watch this year? Get to check out some college games in person. |
1:48 |
: You can always consult THE BOARD for an updated list but Arkansas/Florida/Vandy are always good bets for high draft prospects |
1:48 |
: The Blue Jays should offer Machado 10/250, right? |
1:49 |
: Like, almost every team should/could |
1:49 |
: that’s why this charade is so silly |
1:49 |
: Do you think George Valera is ready to handle full-season ball now? Cleveland is not typically aggressive with his age level and only a few guys his age come to mind as playing Low-A in their system as teenagers |
1:49 |
Kyle Tucker if it all goes right : We think so. Chance to turn into |
1:50 |
: Am I missing links to the player write-ups on THE BOARD? That would be enormously helpful. |
1:50 |
: That will be coming, along with more goodies after the lists are done |
1:50 |
: How sad can someone be (Uncle Mike) with so much anger 3 months after a World Series Championship? |
1:50 |
: YEAH MIKE |
1:50 |
: Any ETA for the Yankees list? |
1:51 |
: BAL/NYY/TOR are coming up next, will be more a product of when the calls get finished and NYY will be tricky, so probably late next week or the week after |
1:51 |
: Tristen Casas or Grant Levine? Which one would you bank on being a ML 1st baseman worth stashing in a dynasty league? |
1:51 |
: Casas for now |
1:51 |
: Tampa list coming this week? |
1:51 |
: Yes |
1:51 |
: You don’t like my question? |
1:52 |
: Nope |
1:52 |
: Do we have another generational prospect coming in the next few years? intl, draft or cuba or japan? |
1:53 |
: 2019 J2 class looks strong up top, Draft has one real standout guy right now but not generational yet, Cuba is tapped except for when new 16 year olds pop up, Japan nothing Darvish/Ohtani level |
1:53 |
: So, 2019 J2 could qualify, otherwise it’s a no |
1:53 |
: TUring, you got the Rays sleeper correct |
1:54 |
: Is Kyler Murray even any good? |
1:54 |
: watch this and you tell me |
1:54 |
: he hadn’t played in basically 3 years when he was doing this |
1:54 |
: |
1:54 |
: Prime rib is a 50 steak, tops. Ribeye is 80. |
1:55 |
: Don’t think I have those grades, but I tend to agree |
1:55 |
: When will all of the team lists be completed by, is there a target date/schedule? |
1:55 |
: February |
1:55 |
: BARNES |
1:55 |
: Oh, we’re almost there |
1:55 |
: Are we just at a point where we accept the fact that MLB teams are solely in it to make profits? |
1:56 |
: lol hate to ruin this for you but that’s always been true. more easy to tell now that a strike is probably coming and they’re a little tighter with the money |
1:56 |
: strike = more notgraphs style articles |
1:56 |
Malcom Nunez or Marco Luciano? TIA! : Which Cuban phenom would you target in a dynasty league: |
1:57 |
: lol Nunez isn’t that good of a prospect right now and Luciano isn’t Cuban |
1:57 |
: but Luciano is a dude |
1:57 |
: So according to some, MLB is flush with more cash than ever and is underpaying their players and according to others, MLB is a dying sport because it only appeals to geriatric white men. So are FOs sitting on their cash they are flush with because they foresee the death of MLB because all those geriatric white men will pass soon? |
1:57 |
Jeff McNeil just a pig wearing lipstick? : Is |
1:57 |
: I’ll trade you this banana for the rest of your Snak Pak |
1:58 |
: Kiley, do you miss me? |
1:58 |
: What’s in your wallet, m@th#rf$ck%r? |
1:58 |
: I’m the Joker from the Batman series! Discuss JB Bukauskas’ chances at cracking the bullpen next year or I’m going to DRINK OCEAN WATER |
1:58 |
: oh Kiley you’re so fine you blow my mind, hey Kiley! hey hey, hey Kiley! hey hey |
1:58 |
: DAVE. CAMERON. |
1:58 |
: MATT. DAMON. |
1:58 |
: You guys really brought it with the weird questions this week. See you again next time! |
Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.
I’m not sure how important this is, but I think Kiley’s estimate on Kluber’s value is pretty far under. Steamer has him projected for 5 wins and ZiPS has him at 5.3 wins. Even assuming a standard half win decrease per year, that would be closer to 14 wins than 13, which would add more than $30 million to his value.