Kiley McDaniel Chat – 10/10/18

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from Florida! Think I just saw my last instructional league game yesterday, have a podcast and big Victor Mesa article both going up later today, we’ve already started work on offseason lists and new features for THE BOARD

RS: How do you scout for useful spin rate? Trackman just provides raw spin rate, but not all 3000 RPMs are equal.

Kiley McDaniel: Well you wouldn’t be scouting at that point, that’s data analysis. But if a curveball has a huge raw spin rate and also really big movement, then you can assume there’s a good ratio of useful spin. You either need a fancy camera or Rapsodo to know useful spin and neither is really practical in game situations.

Rbrewers : No love for  Brandon Howlett on the board? He’s looked great as a pro for the Red Sox so far.

Kiley McDaniel: Big swing and miss issues this spring, but he may end up on there when we do the Red Sox list

Ryan: Hey Kiley, what do you think of Dbacks shortstop prospects Geraldo Perdomo and Blaze Alexander? Thank you!

Kiley McDaniel: Positive buzz on both short season shortstops. Blaze has an 80 arm a decent shot to stick at SS, but I saw him get blown up by velo this spring…that said he’s been hitting well both by numbers and scouts’ eyes in pro ball, so he’s definitely moved up since draft day

Navin: Do you have any thoughts or opinions on the Cubs moving their instructional league to January?

Kiley McDaniel: Clubs are redefining instructional league. Some don’t have it at all, some have a lot more intersquads and classroom stuff. Player dev has changed a lot and these players already play six straight months and TrackMan fills in for the players certain coaches/execs hadn’t seen, so it would be silly to just make the players play an extra 3 weeks just because you can. Getting something out of it now (you’re eating up budget space, too) means different goals for certain teams, thus different execution.

tb.25: How do the Yankee pitching prospects look? Will they trade from their depths for pitchers, or wait until those guys are ready?

Kiley McDaniel: If you take out Johnny Lasagna and Sheffield since they’re both MLB-ready now, it’s a lot of power arms with reliever risk (Medina, Abreu, Stephan) or a long ways off (R. Contreras, Osiel Rodriguez) or coming off a down year (Freicer, Sauer, Adams). There’s still depth in that there’s still a solid amount of names with trade value, but Clarke Schmidt (fresh off of TJ) and Deivi Garcia (smallish guy that likely isn’t a 200 IP type) may be the best bets to start a meaningful amount of games for the big team at some point

Curiosity Seeker: Your list of 2019 MLB Draft prospects is very different from other websites–for example, where pitchers like Lodolo and Manoah are ranked. What are the key things you and Eric look at that might account for those differences?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t seen very many other lists out at this point, so I’d caution you to take like MyBestMockDraft.com or whatever as gospel

Kiley McDaniel: Manoah is a big dude that showed big stuff on the Cape but needs to watch the frame and looks like a reliever. Lodolo is one of a handful of guys that we would move up now, but we’ll wait for a couple fall events to occur to make an update. He threw harder in a scrimmage this week. We had him lower bc he’d been mostly 88-91, touching 92 or 93 just like in HS two years ago and that’s where we’d rank that guy. If he’s consistently 91-94 like he was this week, then he’s in the top 30. Jason Hodges (HS LF, Illinois) is another guy that probably moves up and Michael Harris (HS LHP/RF, Georgia) would move on the list.

Kiley McDaniel: and for the hoops fans, Jason is the son of Craig Hodges from the MJ Bulls teams

Ryan: The more I read about and watch Alek Thomas the more I think he’s a future star. He seems like a plus hit, plus defensive center fielder. What do you think of his potential? Thank you!

Kiley McDaniel: He may be plus hit, plus D, but I don’t think that’s a future star, more like a really 3-win player, maybe an Inciarte type? I typically think of stars as perennial All-Stars, among the tops at their position, 4-6 wins per year types

Frank Lyman from Amherst: Whitley appeared to be pretty dominant yesterday.  Did you see it?

Kiley McDaniel: Eric did, it sounded v good

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Are the Dodgers in legal trouble for something every team secretly does, or are they (one of) the only teams to go this far?

Kiley McDaniel: The different thing here is the Dodgers signed a bunch of Cubans guys in one year and all the stuff that is interesting to the feds would be stuff regarding Cubans. There’s a baseline level of cheating in the J2 markets, like speeding on the highway, and it’s generally gone down. That said, the Cuban stuff is different given the embargo basically forces drug dealers and kidnappers to be a part of the process and the big bonuses cause agents to be a little sloppier and talking to a Cuban player before he defects could be a federal crime, depending on what you say.

Kiley McDaniel: So, not knowing anything specific beyond what’s been reported, having the Dodgers signing all those Cubans would increase their exposure to potential criminal activity, more than a team that signs zero Cubans.

Anthony: Are there any 2019 draft guys in Massachusetts worth noting?

Kiley McDaniel: Not at this juncture, but guys always pop up in the spring

Nick: Would there be any notable changes to your trade-value list based on the past 3 months?

Kiley McDaniel: Taking a quick look at the list…

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-trade-value-1-to-10/

Kiley McDaniel: Glad I got a little ahead of the Bregman train

Kiley McDaniel: Ronald Acuna would move up, maybe into the top 10

Kiley McDaniel: Yelich and deGrom finished strong and probably move up a bit

Kiley McDaniel: Blake Snell may move up a bit and I’m glad I was a little ahead of the Buehler train too

Kiley McDaniel: Nothing too drastic, though

Kiley McDaniel: Basically just young players who went nuts the last few months where I was hedged a little due to lack of track record

Open up and say : Has Daniel Lynch improved his stock with his performance so far?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, he’s up a bit, but we also moved him up pretty aggressively pre-draft to #23, so we were already the high guys on him

Kiley McDaniel: If you guys want to keep bringing up names that we look to be right about, please continue

RunawaYEM: Freddie Freeman is stumping for Bryce Harper to come to ATL.  What are the odds of something like that happening?  1 in 10?  1 in 1000?

Kiley McDaniel: Discussed this a bit on the podcast that will come out in a few hours. I think ATL will be a little more conservative with the money to spend this offseason, but they are one of the top 4-5 teams that make sense for Harper, so I’d say like 20% chance?

brad: Kiley, Yankees Offseason plans, gardy and lynn walk, trade Gray for anything, Sign Machado for 3B, sign Corbin, Trade andujar, Sheffield, Frazier and Acevdo for DeGrom.    They easily have the money for this, and it isn’t a crazy fan offer for Degrom, that is legit.

Kiley McDaniel: Just wanted everyone to get an example of the questions I don’t publish

Jeff: Do you look at a pitcher’s defense when scouting and would it affect your grade?

Kiley McDaniel: Almost never is even an consideration, unless it’s a 20 athlete that will have trouble with bunts

J: Re: That Indians story about analytics in the clubhouse-how many teams have a clubhouse analyst? (IIRC Ben Lindbergh wrote about the Pirates having one, and obviously yesterday the Red Sox will be getting one)

Kiley McDaniel: Pirates were the first team to really have that position and use it, but every team has some version of that, though some clubs use like the clubhouse video guy as that person, while others have an advance team of 4-5 guys and one person whose only job is to lead that charge and present the info an a conduit from front office to manager. I’d guess 12-15 teams have that one specific person?

DJ Tanner: Once Vlad, Eloy, and Senzel graduate early next season, who would you say are next up as the best batters in the minors?

Kiley McDaniel: Victor Robles and Kyle Tucker would also go on that list of soon-to-graduate

Kiley McDaniel: And Luis Urias as well.

Kiley McDaniel: As for best hit tool outside of that group, I’d go Royce Lewis, Wander Franco and Nick Madrigal as the athletic up-the-middle types with elite contact skills and Alex Kirilloff as the corner type with the pure bat.

Slothrop: If you were Billy Eppler and Trout came up to you and said “I will play on this team forever if you let me choose the coaching staff every year” do you say yes?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, knowing you have Trout forever (I assume at a reasonable salary) is more valuable that the couple games a year that the manager may affect

Kiley McDaniel: Well, unless Trout’s pick is like a total idiot that has no interest in doing the right thing…but as long as it’s someone that’s actually qualified to manage. I’d imagine Trout’s pick (in this odd scenario) would be based on wanting to win and don’t think he would just pick a friend and ensure that the team is worse

Kiley McDaniel: So I’d take a less progressive guy if forced

Kiley McDaniel: ugh, fire alarm just went off BRB

Kiley McDaniel: okay, false alarm

Rob: Can one reasonably expect the Mets to build a winning organization – not just a winning season here or there – at any point while the Wilpons retain control?

Kiley McDaniel: I tend to say no because the history of terrible, meddling owners with lots of history of being terrible and meddling…then turning into even decent owners is basically zero. I mean give me some examples but did Donald Sterling, Dan Snyder, Peter Angelos, etc. did they magically start running successful, winning franchises after a long stretch of being bad?

CNB: Is Brendan McKay tracking more toward a SP first, hitter second?

Kiley McDaniel: Correct, more detail here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/should-we-adjust-how-we-evaluate-pitch…

NihilistDuda: If you were a Wilpon (yes, I realize you might need to shower after that horrifying thought) who would you be looking at to run the baseball ops for the Mets?

Kiley McDaniel: Look at the teams with good processes that also tend to spend money well when the spend it and find a #2 with some history to suggest they are a part of the trend b/c they’ve been in other smart offices or run good departments. My best examples would be Matt Arnold with MIL and Mike Elias with HOU, which have both been mentioned a lot this offseason for similar reasons.

RS: What do your fantastic sources say about the Giants front office position?

Kiley McDaniel: Similar to what’s been reported. Sounds like they want to pick someone in the mold I described above and that’s what they’ve said publicly, but some are skeptical they do that given the sort of guy who they’ve had running things in the past when they’ve been successful. In Elias/Arnold’s favor is, while they’ve been with progressive clubs, they’ve both run the scouting departments for those teams, so it isn’t hiring the “Ivy League dork that’s only pushed paper” type that I think some owners are hesitant to pick

Open up and say : Does Jo Adell stick in CF long term?

Kiley McDaniel: We think RF, but should be above average there

DaveRobertsThrowingDarts: Keibert Ruiz or Will Smith? Boxers or Briefs? The Sopranos or The Wire? Dave Roberts or Joe Girardi? Bunt or Swing Away?

Kiley McDaniel: These are all covered on THE BOARD if you look closely enough

Drake: How would you rate the early returns and upside of the Royals 2018 draftees: Kowar, Lunch, Bubic and Isbel? Would you have any of them as fringe top 100 guys?

Kiley McDaniel: We like Lynch the most, but he isn’t quite top 100 yet. I could see Singer getting there this winter–we had him in that 135-170 tier pre draft and he’s starting to throw the changeup more now while some guys have graduated since then.

i guess: does the dodgers hesitance to trade verdugo for yelich look a little crazy now?? win some (bellinger), lose some (verdugo) in hoarding prospects?Is hind sight 20/20??

Kiley McDaniel: Well it would’ve been Verdugo and a couple more good pieces, not straight up. Verdugo, for me, was a better piece than Brinson in that trade, but there were two other top 100 prospects in that trade (Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz). That’s not the kind of trade the Dodgers have made under this regime and they also didn’t pay a premium for Greinke, etc. More moderate approach that’s focused on quality depth and selling mid-tier prospects, which is also what NYY is doing. And I’d say you won on the Buehler aspect too, who may have been in a Yelich deal.

Astro: Kiley, were you able to get eyes on Freudis Nova and Jayson Schroeder?

Kiley McDaniel: Not this year, but I’ve seen both and like both, could be arrow up guys early next year b/c there are definitely tools. Schroeder appeared to clean up the delivery a good bit this summer from the video we saw, which was his concern pre-draft.

Jason: What are your thoughts on Touki and Fried?  Should they be part of a 6 man rotation going into 2019?   Or are they high leverage bp arms

Kiley McDaniel: Fried feels more like a swiss army knife lefty matchup guy that could also be a true setup guy or go multiple innings. I know Andrew Miller is the lazy comp for that sort. Touki could be a starter or, if we continue with the indians comps, be like a Cody Allen type relief ace. They’ll both be real contributors on a good team

Sean: Nate lowe or jake bauers?

Kiley McDaniel: Bauers

Kiley McDaniel: More D and more hit tool and has proven it at higher levels

michel: Also wanted to know, who’s your #1 farm right now?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know for sure at this moment, but we’re working on a unique way to answer this question going forward

JB: Among prospects not in the top 50 per The Board!, which few guys would you say have the highest ceilings (regardless of risk to reach those ceilings)?

Kiley McDaniel: Jordyn Adams and Kyler Murray come to mind, both center fielders from the draft this summer that could turn into 5-win monsters if it all comes together

Rob: Do you think Owen Miller or Grant little has a shot to be a reg?

Kiley McDaniel: Not really, but the odds aren’t 0%. Little more multi-positional utility and we aren’t on Miller right now but obviously SD likes him

Paul: In regards to the draft, isn’t there a huge market ineffciency when it comes to cold-weather guys. I have a hard time believing that kids are less talented just because they were born in Wisconsin or Maine as opposed to Florida or Texas. Seems like you can get super talented guys like Kelenic, Nimmo or even a more extreme example like Trout later in the draft just based off the stat they’re from

Kiley McDaniel: The teams that run their draft on models really move up the young HS hitters from the Northeast. The numbers say this, but teams have already generally adjusted

Kiley McDaniel: And Kelenic is a good example of the amount of summer showcases and IDing of the kids can give a Wisconsin kid more track record for scouts than a late pop up kid in Florida, which probably closes that gap some since there’s less we’re missing in the spring if there’s comprehensive looks in the summer

Kretin: How do the Braves feel internally about the Tomahawk Chop?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know that answer, but I think it’s annoying, especially with how much they use it.

Dan the Mets Fan: On a scale of ‘not that bad’ to ‘doooommmeeedd’ how would you describe the reported candidates for the Mets GM job so far?

Kiley McDaniel: If the Wilpons insist on being involved at a similar level as they have been before, no serious, top 10 or 15 GM prospect type candidate would take this job. Having a hand tied behind your back is a huge risk…like if they make you do something you don’t want to, then have to go in front of the NY media and defend a bad move, then be judged for future GM jobs based on that…would you do that if you aspire to be a GM for a long time? Little margin for error.

Rob: If I were a billionaire owner, I’d create a college in the DR. Sign troves for $5K to $10k, give them great food and housing and let them scrimmage all day for 4 years. They’d also get some type of work training like electrician or plumbing (they’d have a few choices) and they’d graduate at the end with a skill if bb didn’t work out. It would have to be productive and produce and least some talent and be a win in a few years don’t ya think

Kiley McDaniel: Well ideally you’d replace the buscones with this system and they get first shot at all the players, but you’d be doing it with 12 year olds to do that…and a team can’t sign them until 16. Good intention, but don’t see how you’d do it.

Open up and say : How feasible would it be for an organization to provide healthier meals for its minor leaguers?

Kiley McDaniel: One of the lowest hanging fruit for an org if they aren’t already doing it

Kiley McDaniel: And while you’re paying the players less than minimum wage, it also seems like a morally right thing to do, maybe get you back to neutral in that regard

Galileo: Isaac Paredes made a big jump from off the top 100 preseason to now #42 on THE BOARD, what were the reasons for the jump?

Kiley McDaniel: Plays in the dirt, great feel for contact, performing much better than we expected. Downplayed the upside a bit given the and non-SS defensive home, but gotta recognize an elite skill when it shows itself

Rob: No Tatis as best hitter?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s more power and defense than hit tool, but he’s the best prospect of that bunch right now

Noob: Hey whats the best way to use this site to become a saber master

Kiley McDaniel: Instead of bending the spoon, bend everything around the spoon by thinking about how much you hate launch angle to own the libs

DJ Tanner: What do you think the Braves plan is with Austin Riley? Major league roster out of Spring Training, early/midseason/late callup?

Kiley McDaniel: I would assume at least the 11 days in AAA thing like Acuna, but if they replace Markakis with a vet, then there isn’t a place for him to play everyday, so maybe closer to the Super 2 deadline or whenever a clear spot is open

Jake: Isn’t it quite obvious Sixto needs/will need very soon TJ surgery??

Kiley McDaniel: I wouldn’t go that far, but I was talking to a scout about it this week and compared it to how the pilot tells you the 2-hour delay by saying it will be 15 more minutes every 15 minutes. Not encouraging.

Dominik: What grades do you you have on the  current and future raw power of andrew vaughn?

Kiley McDaniel: 60 and 60 probably, he’s physically maxed-out

Kiley McDaniel: but he’s the type that could also have 60 game power

Dan: Oof, that time, eh?

Kiley McDaniel: yeah, man

Dusty: WANDER JAVIER!

Kiley McDaniel: the only kind of wander javier content that will get in this chat

Luzinski’sSweatyGooch: NH, but the UMP series gives me a raging McDongenhagen

Kiley McDaniel: okay guys settle down

Kiley McDaniel: but a new episode dropping as soon as scout gets her post-chat walk

Kiley McDaniel: see you guys and gals next week!