Kiley McDaniel Chat – 10/16/18

2:12

Kiley McDaniel: Sorry for the delay and the weird day but I’ll be traveling tomorrow so here we are. Still working on some projects behind the scenes that you guys will see soon. Have some preliminary FA projections (105 of them!) if you guys are into that, starting work on prospect lists, doing some work on THE BOARD and new features with Sean Dolinar, podcast is coming weekly and working on some research for the THT annual and some stuff with Craig Edwards that will be coming in the next week or two that I think you’ll really like. Warning: we will quantify everything, even the stuff you don’t want us to.

2:12

Tommy N.: How much do you think Eovaldi gets this offseason? 3 years $40M?

2:12

Kiley McDaniel: My guess was 3/45 at first blush, so yeah something like that

2:13

Nate: How do scouts balance the “eye test” and analytics when evaluating talent?

2:15

Kiley McDaniel: Well that’s about a 5,000 word article if we’re breaking down both how the execs and scouts do it. In short, scouts are instructed by most teams to avoid analytics and allows the professionals in the office to apply them, since some scouts will see tiny sample size hitter split data and apply that info incorrectly and skew the report, for instance. In reality, most teams show scouts exit velos and spin rates so they aren’t in the dark, but they generally don’t know how to use it, so they’re given very basic instructions like “round up if the curveball spin rate is x and you graded it y but it’s a borderline grade,” and stuff like that. On the amateur side it’s almost not used at all by scouts other than the basic stuff you can see like this college hitter is striking out 30% of the time, we all know that’s bad.

2:15

GPT: Updated thoughts on Giants front office search?

2:16

Kiley McDaniel: Looks like they shot for the moon and went progressive in going after David Stearns, so it would appear everything is on the table and the hire will lean analytically, if not lean strongly that way…if we’re using the binary definition of analytical/traditional

2:16

Blurg: Has the “fly ball revolution” been fueled  from the top-down by quants in FO’s who convince players to increase their launch angle or from the bottom-up where players independently increased their launch angle and quants observed and advocate for it?

2:19

Kiley McDaniel: I think the idea 1) came from offices, got in the heads of progressive players/coaches, then 2) the open minded (moderate) players/coaches saw the results and starting doing it, then 3) the traditional execs/players/coaches now see there’s some value in it and a) some jump in like the others before them, b) others say well let’s be careful but dip our toes in and c) a smaller group just say this is stupid get off my lawn. Of Broadcasters over the age of 50, about 80% in response c)

2:19

mark: Can you freeze the top row of the BOARD please?

2:19

Kiley McDaniel: Good call, the update will have the option to show 200 rows, so that’s a reasonable feature to have with it

2:19

mark: Do teams give out more information about their draft classes post draft?  Do you have a different feel for certain prospects if you hear different evaluations from teams?

2:21

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, you get the full story on the hideout guys (limited amount of teams knew about a small school college guy/HS player that didn’t go to showcases) and lots of scouts will tell you this pick came down to the 2-3 players and we picked this one, or agents will say this team was really aggressive on this player relative to the rest of the market, teams tell you the pick they had lined up but another team took the player right in front of them, etc. We’ll never report most of it, but it’s useful to have these narratives for players we didn’t have complete info on before the draft.

2:22

mark: Are there certain teams that you think scouts very well compared to others, and if they draft a certain player does it make you go back and take a second look or re-evaluate if they had a higher grade?

2:23

Kiley McDaniel: Eric and I (and the rest of the industry) definitely have teams in our heads (we mention them pretty often) that we think are better than others. If they’re really on a player we both don’t like, we’ll take a step back more than we would if a team we think doesn’t do a good job take them. But we still won’t change the grade until we get some real data (a summer of out of character performance, we see a tool that we didn’t before) to justify changing it.

2:23

duder: How far off is the statistical analysis in the public sphere as opposed to internal analysis of teams? Obviously they have more data, but what kind of reports and numbers are they privy to?

2:25

Kiley McDaniel: The makeup info and trackman data is like 90% of it. We have comparable reports to most teams on most players, they’ll just have a little more detail, see them more often. And the really advanced teams will have other data on top of this, like super advanced trackman analysis, sports science stuff, biomechanical analysis from high speed video, etc. but lots of teams either don’t really do that stuff or it’s a small part of th eval. Teams don’t get medicals on opposing players until a trade has been agreed to and we usually hear about a grisly/disputed medical for amateur player after the draft, so we aren’t even super behind on medical info for top prospects

2:25

duder: How realistic is for the Braves to go with Austin Riley at 3B next year? Or do you see him going to LF or being trade bait?

2:27

Kiley McDaniel: Mentioned on the last podcast when we talked about this (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-…) that having Dansby/Camargo/Riley for SS and 3B means that if they all hit at once, you can move one (either Riley to RF or Camargo to super utility, most likely)

2:29

Kiley McDaniel: Going back to the Giants GM discussion now that I see this MLBTR report: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/the-giants-gm-search.html

2:29

Kiley McDaniel: I’d guess (you could dispute any one of these) that Sawdaye/Arnold/Bloom/Stearns/Elias would all be in the progressive pool, McLeod/Byrnes/Ng probably more moderate/blend pool

2:30

duder: Do you have any aspirations to return to work inside baseball? What kind of situation would it take to bring you back into it?

2:30

Kiley McDaniel: Sure, in the right situation, but that situation is much more specific now than it was last time. Don’t think it will come along for a little while at least.

2:30

Rocket man: Pick a  19/20 year olds  to shoot thru  the minors and  called up to majors next year?

2:31

Kiley McDaniel: Well Vlad, Tatis and Royce are all 19 right now and, in that order, could/will be in the bigs soon. Wander Franco as a 17 year old is the real longshot https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board

2:33

Fritz Ferter: Which player draws a better return, Paxton, segura, or Diaz?

2:33

Kiley McDaniel: Did a whole ranking of this in July. I actually had Haniger over the group then, but those four are all pretty close https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-trade-value-1-to-10/

2:34

Joser: What teams are doing the coolest, ‘you wouldn’t believe me if I told you’ stuff with the minors and player development?

2:36

Kiley McDaniel: I actually talked to some guys this week that are really on top of this stuff and we tried to make a list of the teams that are clearly doing a good job, really making progress, more good than bad, etc. and we came up with like 6 teams? Trying to recall the list, but LAD, NYY, CLE, MIL, SD, HOU (notice a trend?) were all on there. Just as many are clearly doing poorly and I’d say more than 5 are in the middle of a concerted effort to overhaul (like double digit personnel changes) what they have to catch up with that top group

2:37

Kiley McDaniel: Trust me, GMs that aren’t running one of those top 5-6 or however many teams are in the top tier are acutely aware that they are behind and most of them are actively trying to get there. Some are still in denial, but not that many.

2:38

Jason: I’m just curious what you think of the recent trend of pulling starters earlier and earlier? Do you think this is a change that has been a long time coming, or do you think it is more so a reflection of the offensive/pitching talent at this point with hitters possibly becoming smarter and pitchers seemingly falling more and more into only 2 pitch guys (though maybe it’s always been like that with pitching being hard)?

2:39

Kiley McDaniel: To me, it’s like you’ve been playing some board game with your friends forever, then you all find some game theory analysis (lets’ say of Monopoly) with all the odds and it points to a clear best way to play the game. You’re all going to lean that way and maybe the game is less fun since there’s less variance in strategies but in reality its the same game, you’re just forced to be better/more creative with a sharper focus, since everyone is doing similar stuff.

2:41

Kiley McDaniel: Now imagine that four of you are playing and one guy thinks all those odds things are stupid. He might win sometimes, especially if it’s a game that takes 20 minutes and he gets lucky, but eventually he’s going to be the clear loser of the group. I’m analytical in how I do stuff like that, so finding the best edge and best implementation and folding in reading people on top of that is interesting to me, but I totally get that maybe an older guy that’s played Monopoly one way for 30 years thinks this is all dumb and hates how the game is played now. Doesn’t make it the wrong strategy, he just needs to play with other people that play like him and he’ll probably like it again. Winning tends to fix things.

2:42

Kiley McDaniel: Tying it back to your question, there’s more prep materials and players are getting bigger and more talented so eventually, with steroids off the table, strategy is where everyone goes to get an edge. This was inevitable.

2:42

duder: How much sharing of Milb Trackman Data is there in baseball? Do you see it ever being available to the public?

2:44

Kiley McDaniel: Like 95% of stadiums have it and all the teams essentially get all of the info from every stadium (except the DSL), practically speaking. Teams pay six figures a year for the data so unless MLB wants to foot the seven figure a year bill for all 30 teams and make it public, I can’t imagine it ever does. There’s a chance MLB puts statcast in minor league parks but I don’t think that’s coming anytime soon.

2:44

SAL fan: is there any concern with Kelenic that he may have a Rutherfordish trajectory?   I recall Blake being a pretty polished old-for-his class bat that did very well in the Appy, and then struggled since.

2:45

Kiley McDaniel: Rutherford was a tweener guy that lost a step and became a corner guy and Kelenic is a CF that could possibly lose a step, but seems less likely to do that given his build. He’s also not as old as BR was and was generally seen as having a slightly superior combo of tools and performance, but they are in the same ballpark

2:46

Kiley McDaniel: I also think Kelenic has a little better game power potential in his swing than Rutherford does even now

2:47

Adam Henderson: Hi Kiley, this is a specific question on Wander Franco. I have read many reports on his feats at his age but can you give me an insight on his tools and how he might be this advanced at this age and with the influx of impactful youth from D.R. do we need to set the bar higher on J2 signees?

2:49

Kiley McDaniel: Franco is one of the rare kids that was clearly the best in his age group at like 14 and further is one of the rare ones to still be the best at 17. The tool grades are wacky, something like 70 hit, future 60 raw, 60-70 run, can probably be a 50 at SS, 60 arm

2:49

Kiley McDaniel: The list of guys that are super elite at 14 and perform at a super elite level in the pros at 17 is reaaaaaly short. Vlad Jr. is another one. These are just rare, every 5-10 year prospects that happen to be in a glut right now

2:51

Kiley McDaniel: Juan Soto got the 21st highest bonus in his class, he doesn’t even qualify for this and neither does Tatis Jr.

2:51

Frank Lyman from Amherst: Is the Pads system really really good or just really good?

2:51

Kiley McDaniel: Pretty sure it’s #1 right now, but I’ll have a better answer soon

2:51

James: Jeff Fletcher said that Suarez and Marsh could get the conversation going for Realmuto, does that sound reasonable or is that way too light?

2:53

Kiley McDaniel: Just those two is very light. Archer didn’t make the top 50 trade value rankings this year and Realmuto was in the 20’s I believe. Glasnow/Meadows/Baz may not get Realmuto, although today, maybe it would.

2:53

Hinkie: Have you heard anything on Yusei Kikuchi?  Is he more likely to sign with a west coast team?  What kind of contract can he expect?

2:53

Kiley McDaniel: I’m thinking 4 years, 10-15M area, but probably the lower end of that scale given there’s a posting fee

2:54

Mike: I just traded Jacob Nottingham for Ross Stripling in my dynasty league. Did I do well?

2:54

Kiley McDaniel: That’s a really deep league

2:55

Dan: If Riley Greene hits enough in the spring, can he be a top 5 pick or will the defensive profile limit him? For comparison’s sake, was Kyle Tucker seen as a future corner outfielder at the time of the draft?

2:55

Kiley McDaniel: Tucker was seen that way, Greene is comparable but not quite as loose at the plate. I would guess 6-10 for Greene, but right around there.

2:55

Ryan: Buy or Sell: We will see a HS Righty Pitcher go 1-1 within the next 10 years

2:55

Kiley McDaniel: Sell

2:56

Eminor3rd: I heard you guys mention Dennis Sarfate on one of your recent podcasts. Idk if it’s terribly interesting, but: He isn’t coming over. He just had a legendary season last year and was given a three year contract by Fukuoka. In interviews, he mentioned that he had weighed taking one more stab at the MLB or staying in the NPB, knowing he only had one more contract in him, and chose the NPB. I could be wrong but I think I remember they’re paying him like ~$3mm per year, which is a lot for a foreign RP. He’s very popular. Also, he missed most of this past season with a pretty serious hip injury. He is expected to be ready to go for the start of the 2019 season. His nickname is “King of Closer” which is not a typo. They don’t put an S at the end of “closer.” The fans have banners and merchandise that say it. It’s great.

2:56

Kiley McDaniel: Well there ya go, one less guy throwing 100 in the big leagues

2:57

Kimbrel Questioner: What value would it take to aquire Edwin Diaz? Groome + Chavis? Asking for a friend.

2:57

Kiley McDaniel: Way more than that. For reference, Archer and Diaz were pretty close on the trade value list, both just missing it.

2:57

Rick Hahn: Rutschman or Baylor catcher better pick?  We need a great catcher.

2:57

Kiley McDaniel: Rutschman by a good margin right no

2:58

explain: what’s the best way to go about looking for a job at the winter meetings? is there any particular person within an org (dir of baseball ops, farm director, etc) you should target? and is there a less anxiety-provoking way than simply approaching them while they’re mingling in a group of people?

2:58

Kiley McDaniel: email them ahead of time and try to find the person that’s running the interviews/hiring for the intern jobs that are open

2:58

explain: would an asst GM/farm director be impressed if you approached them and said you were capable of giving a one-paragraph synopsis of each of the team’s top 50 prospects (off the top of your head, of course)?

2:58

Kiley McDaniel: not really

3:00

Roger: What good does an MLB pitching coach do? Do teams generally aim for a philosophy for all of their pitchers vs. focusing on the strengths and weaknesses of each one? (Thinking of Chuck Hernandez and some of the criticisms I’ve read within the Braves’ fans community.)

3:02

Kiley McDaniel: MLB hitting/pitching coaches are much more psychologist/babysitter/ego manager/confidence builder, etc. than they are mechanical change artists that are tweaking half the roster at the same time. Players often handle that stuff themselves and ask coaches/video guys for help at times. Players that are performing pretty well generally get left alone and want to be left alone

3:02

Mike: Are there any other notable int’l FAs besides the Mesas and Sandy Gaston? The Red Sox traded for more space on signing day and still have about about 1 million left in space (and could trade up for even more). Do you think that will go unused?

3:03

Kiley McDaniel: It won’t go unused, but just spent of a bunch of 50K to 500K types that we generally haven’t heard of because they’re late-peaking 17-19 year olds or just lower profile 16 year olds. More on that here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-mesa-gaston-workout/

3:04

Ybored at work: CJ Cron had 30 HR and 122 wRC+ last year and probably has no trade value whatsoever. How can that be?

3:04

Kiley McDaniel: R/R 1B/DH coming off a career year, generally peak early, get paid in arb more than they do in the open market in many cases…not a good type of player to be

3:04

Kiley McDaniel: well, right now. maybe that will change

3:05

RickDickNick: Going forward, is Tyler O’Neil regular corner OF, or a bench-bat with power?

3:05

Kiley McDaniel: He was top 100 for us, comfortably, for the last 12 months at least

3:05

Kiley McDaniel: so, regular

3:05

Kiley McDaniel: maybe well above average

3:05

Andrew: I know the draft is 8 months away, but is Rutschmann more of Bryce Harper prohibitive favorite to go 1-1 or more like a Brady Singer that could easily fall?

3:05

Kiley McDaniel: Between Singer and Harper in terms of consensus-ness and odds he’ll fall

3:06

Kiley McDaniel: Singer was one of the lowest-rated consensus preseason #1s

3:06

JB: are teams now looking to hire scouts who *are* fluent in the exit velo and spin rate data?

3:07

Kiley McDaniel: Eh, again, teams don’t really want scouts to write reports where they mix in their own data analysis, but knowing that a scout won’t discount it and likely will be young/cheap if he/she is into data, then yes, they will hire you

3:07

Blue Jay Matt: Is Kelly Johnson a good comp for Cavan Biggio’s upside or do you see more or less?

3:08

Kiley McDaniel: Eh, somewhere around there, one of the many versions of Kelly Johnson

3:08

LPFan: What other characteristics can make a prospect with 90 mph FB successful in big leagues today? Do you think not throwing hard from onset helps his career longevity or in-season durability?

3:08

Kiley McDaniel: plus change, plus command seems like a minimum to be successful and hang around, probably even more than that

3:09

Jay: Do scouts/sources on teams try to pitch public prospect people to mislead other teams about prospects or draftees?

3:11

Kiley McDaniel: yeah but Eric and I have been at this long enough that we know which ones do that and generally don’t talk to them. Some execs see the media as an adversary (don’t answer, which is fine, I judge that as a neutral) and/or something to be conquered into doing your bidding (answer only when they have something to push, and only give that) and we have no time for that. multiple GMs fit this description, by the way.

3:11

Brian: If a “smart” team like the Dodgers, Yankees or Astros call and ask about a player in a trade, should that change how the other team views that player? In other words, when will the Reds stop answering the Dodgers calls?

3:13

Kiley McDaniel: I know a “smart” team that asked a less “smart” team about a random, seemingly generic reliever like 5+ years ago, a youngish AAA/MLB shuttle type that even fans of that team probably didn’t care about. The less “smart” team was like wait a minute why do you want him and refused to trade him just on that basis. The team kept him and he went from generic into a legit contributor, was later traded for by multiple “smart” teams when he got expensive in arb. Original “smart” team never got him.

3:14

mark: A while back someone (I think you did) mentioned that the Yankees are doing something different to get more velocity out of pitchers but you (they) couldn’t figure out what?  Have you figured it out? (a yes or no is fine if you can’t disclose specifics)

3:14

Kiley McDaniel: I’m not even sure its one crazy trick and I’m pretty sure it isn’t. I think it’s just the residue of a good process on scouting and development

3:14

Pickle Nick: Do teams keep data on scouts’ or cross-checkers success rates in finding amateur players? It seems like it would be a useful thing during the hiring process, to know about if you’re gonna poach a scouting talent.

3:16

Kiley McDaniel: Discuss this periodically but it turns out it takes multiple contracts (most scouts are on 1-year deals, maybe 2) to determine if the scout was good in his first year and you’ve already promoted/resigned him multiple times at that point and maybe he sucked his first year but now he’s goot and you need to wait 5 more years to find out if that’s right…it’s just not feasible in an empirical way. Anecdotally keeping track of if lists seem good a year or two later, or the process, communication, etc. is much easier and is what the industry has been doing for awhile

3:16

mark: Can you shed some light on the trade discussions that happen when prospects are involved?  Is there a back and forth involving grades on tolls, and FV and the like?

3:17

Kiley McDaniel: It’s usually just yes/no on a group of names until both sides figure out “oh it’s this tier of prospect and they think these couple guys are better/worse than we do”

3:17

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Does Kowar have middle of the rotation stuff if the breaker or command gets to average?

3:18

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, probably, but that’s been the issue for over 2 years now

3:19

Ken Lay: if Wander Franco meets all of those tool grades, would he be a 70+ overall? Or even more?

3:19

Kiley McDaniel: yeah, would fall in that 65 to 70 FV area as a prospect, could work into 80 FV like Acuna, Soto, Judge and some others have shown pretty quickly in MLB career

3:19

Davoink Showerhandel: Would you speak on Nick Madrigal’s power potential?  His power production in the minors was non-existent, but I think that might be effected by his hand/wrist injury, exhaustion from the college season, etc.  Realize he’s not gonna be a masher, but can he do a .150 ISO in the majors in the future?

3:20

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a 40 raw power guy that could grow into 45 with maturation, health, better balls/bat, etc

3:20

Kiley McDaniel: has bat control to turn 45 raw into 50 game, which is 15-18 homers. I wouldn’t expect that, but it’s on the table

3:20

RunawaYEM: Would you give up Cristian Pache as a headliner for for Realmuto?  What type of package from ATL would it take?

3:20

Kiley McDaniel: I would not, you could put a pretty solid three prospect group together without having to include him

3:21

Ken Lay: Would an asst GM/farm director be impressed if I threw a shuriken over their head at 110+ mph, in turn, pinning my business card to the wall?

3:21

Kiley McDaniel: That would turn some heads, yes

3:21

Ken Lay: do you see a lot of burnout in baseball ops? From what I understand (please correct me as necessary), the pay is low and the hours are long for entry positions, so I’m guessing a fair number of people may overestimate their love of the game?

3:23

Kiley McDaniel: YEP, although some people worked so hard to get that entry level gig that they’re in denial about their lifestyle/chances for advancement, general position in life. There aren’t a bunch of people quitting in their 20s but a decent amount leave when that clearly more lucrative/more time off sort of job comes along

3:23

Jamie Ryan: what’s the average pay of a first-year scout?  are they at all reimbursed for travel expenses?

3:24

Kiley McDaniel: Depends, but full time scout like 45-50K and all expenses and benefits and pretty sweet travel points, too. Often you have to intern or part-time or hybrid roles a year or two to get the full gig and those are like 15-25K depending on the situation

3:24

Davoink Showerhandel: When you say a player, like Cron, is a R/R guy, does the throwing “R” matter?  I wouldn’t think a R/L would have any less value than a R/R

3:24

Kiley McDaniel: Throwing lefty is a little better at 1B, but not a huge deal

3:25

Kiley McDaniel: Scouts always verbally talk about that kind of player as “right-right” so that’s usually how we write it, too. 2 syllables is about the shortest wait to say right handed hitter

3:25

Slothrop: Do you have to pay for your own travel

3:25

Kiley McDaniel: The dark overlord picks up those costs

3:25

NA: How do fv grades handle extreme platoon splits with hitters?

3:26

Kiley McDaniel: we round down some if the guy, like a LHH 1B that we think is platoon only unless he’s like 60 hit/power, looks like he’s overwhelming likely to be only a platoon player as that limits the upside

3:26

Kiley McDaniel: Nate Lowe comes to mind as a version of that

3:27

Kiley McDaniel: Jake Bauers wasn’t since he can also play a solid RF, above average 1B and is seen as a better hit tool guy and not a slam dunk platooner

3:27

Kiley McDaniel: platoon isn’t as important if there’s secondary skills, like Coco Crisp. may eventually apply to Corey Ray

3:27

LudeBurger: Oh, Kiley you’re so fine, you blow my mind, hey Kiley!

3:27

Kiley McDaniel: oh no we’re there already

3:27

Dusty: WANDER JAVIER!

3:27

Kiley McDaniel: the only acceptable place for a Wander Javier mention

3:27

Kiley McDaniel: See you guys next week!





Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.

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