Kiley McDaniel Chat – 10/16/19

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! I think we’re about a week away from announcing more about the project that Eric and I have been hinting at over the last few weeks…because it should be done soon.

Kiley McDaniel: And for those asking about the podcast project we’ve mentioned…that also will be disclosed in the coming weeks

Kiley McDaniel: Scout is eating lunch and I’m hopped up on caffeine, so let’s see what you guys have for me today

Theo: Looking at The Board, I see 14 60 FV prospects. If I’m trading Kris Bryant, could I realistically expect to get someone from that group in return?

Kiley McDaniel: We can tackle this in a broad way using  surplus value calculations:

Kiley McDaniel: and my internet is getting wonky, hold on a second

Kiley McDaniel: okay all fixed!

Kiley McDaniel: scout is the best IT puppy

Kiley McDaniel: so Bryant has 2 years left

Kiley McDaniel: at something like $40M via arbitration

Kiley McDaniel: projects to be worth $80-90 million broadly speaking

Kiley McDaniel: so something like $40-50M in surplus value, absent market forces like a lack of 3B, etc.

Kiley McDaniel: and that equals a 55 or 60 FV prospect: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

Kiley McDaniel: so something like 20th-50th overall on the top 100

Kiley McDaniel: Unclear what exactly the market forces will be, if it pushes that up or down

Kiley McDaniel: but broadly speaking, yeah they might be able to get one of those 60s. there will be more like 20 in the offseason, but the top 10-15 prospects in baseball may be a stretch

randomdude: Obviously he was ridiculously young and played in pitcher-friendly leagues, but did Wander Franco’s middling HR total this season change anything for you? I’m guessing you still expect him to get to above-average or better game-power at his peak?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s the age of a HS senior, is a plus runner and SS and hit 9 HR in leagues while dominating his competition where almost no other 18 year old even played this year

Kiley McDaniel: power always comes last and he’s more of a linear swing path with big EV for his age/height/position that could be more HR-focused as he adjusts

Kiley McDaniel: but the best indicator of hitting bombs in MLB is hitting the ball hard and being a precociously good hitter

Kiley McDaniel: these things broadly applied to Vlad Jr as well

Kiley McDaniel: and are common for advanced, young hitters in the minors

Adam: Are there active expansion draft rules in place? Seems like they’d be very complicated when you consider how many levels there are in professional baseball?

Kiley McDaniel: There were this many levels when TB/ARI had their draft. I don’t remember them exactly, but it was basically a stricter version of the Rule 5, where deep orgs will lose a couple 40 FV types or slightly overpaid veterans

Adam: The Padres have had among the top farm systems in baseball the last few years but have yet to see that develop into a competitive roster at the major league level (Fernando Tatis Jr being the exception). Is this a case where the system has been overrated, the organization has failed to develop, or the ML coaching staff failing to properly utilize the talent endowed upon them?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t supplemented the talent correctly just yet. Also, the potential 3 WAR guys aren’t just 3 WAR just right when they come up, though Paddack and Tatis kinda hit their projections right away

Chaise: Kiley!  It’s been too long. Did you actually take a vacation?!

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, went to Aruba in August, finally cashing in some of those points from that period when I didn’t have a life

Not Evan: Craig Edwards’ original research into prospect valuation separated the prospect tiers into hitters and pitchers. In most tiers, he found significant differences in value. For instance, an FV55 hitter was worth 5.1 WAR, while an FV55 pitcher was worth 3.7 WAR. That’s a 38% gap, but I’m not sure I really understand the upshot. It’d seem weird if the #32 overall prospect (Jarred Kelenic, FV55) were worth 38% more than the #31 overall (Matt Manning, FV55). Does it mean that you’re 38% more reluctant to give a pitcher an FV55 grade than a hitter? Help! Thanks.

Kiley McDaniel: Well that’s using the old BA lists and mapping their ranking to our system

Kiley McDaniel: so it’s really saying there was a calibration issue in where pitchers were ranked in the past

Kiley McDaniel: and that we take this into account when we rank guys, so that the $ value is in line with the raw ranking

Kiley McDaniel: in reality, that’s hard to perfectly calibrate, but that’s (to use this word again) the broad strokes of the adjustment

Ryan: Jaylin Davis: 35+ FV at last update, but will get a look in 2020 SF outfield, and showed monster power in minors. Do you think he can be anything more than a bench bat?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s probably it, but even a 45 FV is a bench/platoon bat

Kiley McDaniel: so there’s some room for growth

Jim Leyland Palmer: Which bat, at this far-out moment,  do you think would be the best fit for DET at 1-1?

Kiley McDaniel: Today, I’d go to Austin Martin. We’ve been quietly updating our draft rankings to the point that they’re absurdly deep right now at 558 player, which is basically the longest list you’ll see at draft time and we have it now

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft/summary?s…

Kiley McDaniel: we haven’t “announced” the draft rankings yet since we’re still adding/moving guys from college fall practice and new guys that popped up at Jupiter last week, but the 2020 list is pretty close to what we think and the reports on the top guys and risers specifically have been updated in the last few weeks

Kiley McDaniel: may be another 10-12 players to add and then we may formally announce the draft rankings

Kiley McDaniel: the short verison of sussing out the top 3:

Kiley McDaniel: Martin: is 6, maybe 7 bat, 50 raw, 60 speed, haven’t seen him at SS yet (he’ll play there this year), but he’s solid at 2B/3B and maybe CF, so it doesn’t really matter. It’s similar overall to Dansby but not quite as athletic, better hitter

Kiley McDaniel: Torkelson: Like Andrew Vaughn, a little more power, little less bat, something lik e a 5 bat, 7 power at 1B with bonkers numbers. Low margin for error (4 bat, 6 power is more role player than star) but slam dunk big leaguer. Models won’t like him due to profile issues, but is doing everything he can

Kiley McDaniel: Hancock: With no soreness down the stretch last spring, would be 1-1. At times, shows four 60+ pitches, sits mid-90’s, CH is 65 or 70 at times, command is 60 at times…like it’s not quite Strasburg but it’s closer than people are saying. It’s also more 55-60 in some starts, but that’s as bad as it is. If he shoves this spring and stays healthy, it’s hard to pass on him at 1, but that’s still an if right now. Skipped summer and fall.

Kiley McDaniel: well that wasn’t that short, but those are the guys

Kiley McDaniel: and the key facts

Kiley McDaniel: and the guys below  that, if you’re looking for risers, just pick the HS bats just behind them

Brett S: Apologies for the truncated question, my old man fingers aren’t as nimble as they used to be…  Any insights on Diego Cartaya?  % chance he is a GUY?

Kiley McDaniel: Early returns are very positive in the AZL, but catchers always take weird, non-linear development paths. Probably a 45 FV this offseason with a chance to jump to 50 if he open strong in Lo-A in 2020.

LioneeR: Are you in the camp where extra rest helps a team in the playoffs, or momentum is better?  It helps the nats line up their pitchers, but Astros/Yankees won’t exactly be scrambling for good starters.

Kiley McDaniel: Like most things, I fall in the middle. I’d rather have rest to reset things and get people fullt healthy, but more than 2-3 days off is a negative, unless the health was so bad that 4-5 days was necessary to get everyone available, then the flat game 1 is fine

Erik Guy: I was thinking of something now that we are in the midst of the MLB postseason and the NFL season.  I feel like one of the big reasons the NFL has maintained success and popularity, even with all of the on and off field disruptions, is in large part due to the popularity of fantasy football.  It’s incorporated into it’s broadcasts, and there are special segments and networks specifically for it.  With how accurately and efficiently we can measure baseball stats and projections nowadays, do you think this would also be a good way to continue branding and selling the MLB product?  The game and broadcasts have turned really analytical, which I’m not sure is attractive to the average fan (I love it) but maybe this is a way to balance the analytical trend with the fantasy angle to get more traction and keep more fans engaged.  It seems to have helped quite well for the NFL.  What do you think?

Kiley McDaniel: Problem is people don’t want an everyday fantasy league for six months. Regardless of popularity, having to set your lineup 17 times a year is attractive, which is why there’s a popularity gap

Kiley McDaniel: do you like music festivals?

what if there’s one in your town every weekend for 17 weeks in a row and your friends are going, too ? cool, right? maybe you’ll skip a few, but it’s good!

WHAT ABOUT EVERYDAY FOR 6 MONTHS WHY ARE YOU SAD YOU SAID YOU LIKED MUSIC FESTIVALS

Oliver Stones: What’s your take on Forrest Whitley and Royce Lewis? Have they both lost their shine?

Kiley McDaniel: Whitley nope and Lewis nope. I think I’ve broken the why on Lewis down multiple times in chats, but the short version is everything is the same, he’s making swing adjustments and it’s 70 makeup, so this is exactly the situation you’d draw up for staying on a guy despite numbers dipping. So we’re staying on him.

Kiley McDaniel: It’s still not easy to do that, but this one felt easy, given the extremes at play

A total bummer: Hey Kiley, in the past you’ve made no exceptions to your rule, but I was hoping you’d chat about all of baseball with me just this once

Kiley McDaniel: you’ve been ejected from the chat. don’t fight it, embrace the ejection

Aaron Bummer: I find your “only non-bummers” policy discriminatory. Perhaps my 2.13 ERA this year has made you reconsider.

Kiley McDaniel: NO EXCEPTIONS YOU’RE GONE BUDDY

Vander: Has Tyler Stephenson impressed enough in the AFL to imrpove his stock a bit?

Kiley McDaniel: he’s another guy that we’ve kept higher than every other ranking I’ve seen, but his isn’t due to down numbers like Lewis, I just think people are bored with him because he’s steady. Tools are still bonkers, it’s an easy top 100 profile

Blaine: What does it take for the Braves to retain Donaldson? 2/50 with 3rd year option?

Kiley McDaniel: Unclear what his priorities are. If he likes ATL and will still give a bit of a discount, that makes some sense. Riley gets a shot in OF before Waters/Pache show up, they they sort themselves out

SQUIRREL: Saw Badler was impressed with his first glimpse of Jasson Dominguez… have you heard anything so far?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean we said he was a generational talent and were the first to talk about him in February and nothing has changed. Ranked him #1 in the class and in the middle of the top 100 before he did anything in pro ball. I think we’ve been pretty clear.

Devin : If the Red Sox decide to re-tool and deal Betts, what would Anthopoulos surrender from the farm to get 1 year of Betts?

Kiley McDaniel: I bet it would be something like:

pick 2 of anyone under 25 other than Acuna, Albies, Soroka, Waters, Pache

pick 1-2 of guys in the minors outside of the top 12-15

Kiley McDaniel: sorry, scout has has asked for some pets, brb

Ciscoskid: My guy! Greetings from the Best Coast. In the spirit of disruption could which MLB franchise if you had to bet would spit in the face in amateurism and set up an academy style organization paying players? Could they do that in the current CBA? Would you believe this could lead to more efficient player development?

Kiley McDaniel: no

Jake: dating advice- do i continue to go for the girl i like? She’s taking a break from dating, but she says im her best friend.

A Boy Named Yu: As a Cubs fan with a Cards fan wife, how can I best enjoy the Nats sweep without spending the next month sleeping on the couch?

Kiley McDaniel: i don’t like the direction these questions are heading. i’m teasing dude goop, like make this style of chicken and this backsplash, not relationship advice

Rhayex: Thoughts on Kyle Boddy’s comments that the Reds are ahead of all other teams with regards to how they’re using analytics in their minor leagues? I know you’ve said in the past the Reds have lagged in that department, so it seems like a positive, if abrupt, change.

Kiley McDaniel: teams that actively go all-in to solve these sorts of issues can make a lot of progress in a year or two

Kiley McDaniel: most teams don’t go all-in

A Boy Named Yu: Odds that Ryan Jenson winds up starting?  Bonus, if he’s a reliever do you seem him closing?

Kiley McDaniel: 55%, more setup type since secondary lags a bit

Carlos: What happens with the IFA agreements if MLB implements a draft?

Kiley McDaniel: they dissolve

Kiley McDaniel: unlikely anything gets collectively bargained for 2020 or 2021, which is where most of the deals are

Kiley McDaniel: maybe a dozen deals done in 2022 and both sides know those could blow up

Kiley McDaniel: it’s happened before. Wander Franco had a tentative deal before hard pools were added in the CBA, so that deal blew up.

A Boy Named Yu: Unrelated to baseball and not even a question, but recently I’ve started ending all conversations with my daughter, no matter the topic, by saying, “When in Rome…”     It earns some of the biggest eye rolls from her and my wife and I just wanted to share that because now I know I’ve arrived as a Dad.

Kiley McDaniel: that’s v dad

Hank: So reading your explanation on Bryant, does this mean Betts would be cheaper to acquire?

Kiley McDaniel: that’s probably more a product of motivation to move him, but yeah, it’s 2 years of roughly 4 WAR versus 1 year of roughly 6 WAR, paid at a similar rate, so Bryant offers more value

Kiley McDaniel: some teams may see it differently, depending on their situation

Kiley McDaniel: and if one team is asking for way more (again, market forces), the extra wins with Bryant could be too costly in prospects

Seymour: Obviously it’s early, but does Jasson Dominguez have the *potential* to be a better prospect than Vlad/Wander/Acuna?

Kiley McDaniel: yes, he could be on that level

A Boy Named Yu: Best case scenario (95%+) for Brennen Davis = Andrew McCutchen?

Kiley McDaniel: Sure, he may be that good 1 out of 20 times

A Boy Named Yu: Who’s got an 80 name in the 20202 draft?

Kiley McDaniel: we don’t go that far into the future

Hottub : 558 names on the 2020 Board, thanks for the hard work! Might want to add Cole Percival and make it 559.

Kiley McDaniel: didn’t realize he wasn’t on there, he definitely should be, thanks

Kiley McDaniel: (that’s Troy Percival’s kid btw)

Joe Maddon: any thoughts on the Maddon hire

Kiley McDaniel: seems like a good move for LAA at this stage of needed to wring wins out of talent

Theo Again: Any word on how I’m overhauling my scouting department?

Kiley McDaniel: haven’t heard much in terms of firing, more moving people around, shifting responsibility

A total bummer/Aaron Bummer: Hahaha thanks for amusing me kiley, no need to call security I will leave on my own

Kiley McDaniel: good sense of humor that’s nice

B plummer: seth beer acquisition was a little strange withe c walker cheap and controllable. Do you take that the dbacks aren’t that high on walker and beer has an opportunity sooner than one might think?

Kiley McDaniel: with the Gallen/Jazz swap, I think it’s clear they think they can compete soon and want pieces with a shorter-term return, which is what Beer is

Kiley McDaniel: can’t have too many good players, and those two may be platoon partners, it’s not like one precludes the other

Spicyboy: I’m in the same dating situation as Jake, please answer that question

Kiley McDaniel: much like a major corporation, think of this chat like a family, but also i’m lying and stop sharing personal details this isn’t a family

Sam: Who do you see as the giants top prospect

Kiley McDaniel: Bart then Luciano then Ramos, but they’re all relatively close

Nate: Pouring one out for the Jorah Mormont of our chat up there being labeled the bff

Kiley McDaniel: you hate. to. see it

Peter: THE BOARD! rules. It’s become my #1 resource and makes searching so much easier. Set that page to infinity baby.

Kiley McDaniel: run me over with your prospects, FanGraphs

Laz: Have heard very good things on 2020 infielder Michael Brooks from local area scouts. Seen him 15-20 times in HS and recently the last month. Area guys here think he’s underrated. Your thoughts?

Kiley McDaniel: contact-oriented MI. if guys think he’s a 6 bat, he’ll go good, we’re a little dubious there’s impact tools/strength, but those things can develop. this sort of guy usually goes to college and if he performs can go top 30-50 picks

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Kiley McDaniel: well it’s that time again. see you guys next week, maybe with some exciting news!