Kiley McDaniel Chat – 10/24/18

Kiley McDaniel: Kiley is here. Some quick plugging of things I’ve done lately

Kiley McDaniel: Podcast with
1. Jeff Passan on sign stealing
2. Eric and I about structuring a scouting dept
3. Jake Mintz of Cespedes Family BBQ on the ballad of Barbecue Yee
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-…

Kiley McDaniel: The even orgs most likely to win the next 5 world series: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/heres-who-will-win-the-next-five-world…

Kiley McDaniel: I tweeted this morning that it sounds like Doug Melvin is the favorite for the Mets job (though it obviously isn’t a done deal yet):

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

 

Heard from multiple sources last night that Doug Melvin is now the clear favorite for the Mets GM job

24 Oct 2018

Kiley McDaniel: Lastly, I just bought a house and am currently dealing with contractors. May not recommend that one, but it’s what I’ve been doing

Tommy N.: Do you think the Reds will eventually trade Eugenio Suarez with Nick Senzel and Jonathan India waiting in the background?

Kiley McDaniel: No, they’ll just find spots for those guys. They’re all 3B ideal fits, but all of them can play a passable 2B and obviously Senzel is playing some CF now. Too many good players is never a bad thing

Will H.: Which is more brutal weather wise; a summer day scouting in the AZL or a summer day scouting in the GCL?

Kiley McDaniel: GCL is way worse; it’s all noon starts with 100% humidity and often rain in the 2nd half of the game, almost no stands/shade/elevation. AZL is night starts, often in stadiums, with no humidity

Garrett: Advice for a college sophomore wanting to get into a front office? Is it too early for an internship? Also what can I do now to help myself?

Garrett: Any tips for a soon-to-be college grad applying for these MLB QA internships?

Kiley McDaniel: These things only get more competitive, so you have to stand out, with either public research that breaks new ground, or skills like spanish or SQL that separate from a generic graduate with some ambitions but not much on a resume

Mike: With the Mesas and Sandy Gaston signed, who is the top IFA left (if any)?

Kiley McDaniel: Have referenced this in a few places, but there’s basically no consensus $500K+ prospects left right now. Asia is light, there may be some hideout guys in Mexico but that is contingent on MLB opening the country pretty quickly (which is unlikely).

Kiley McDaniel: 17-19 year old latin prospects always develop late and pop up in the middle six figures, some new Cubans may pop up, etc. but there isn’t a guy right now and there isn’t even a Cuban name that’s widely known that teams are waiting on–that market is pretty barren, which is why most of the new ones you hear about are 16 years old with no track record. That age group is where the Cuban talent hasn’t been picked over yet.

Eric Blair : What is Vlad Jr. worth in terms of other players in a very hypothetical trade?

Kiley McDaniel: I posed this question on twitter this week and the results were about what Eric/Craig Edwards/I expected. We’d lean 55% or so to Vlad and the public leans a little harder bc he’s 1) famous 2) the HOU guys aren’t really famous 3) Tucker was bad in a short MLB look 4) fans always lean to the better player anyway

Kiley McDaniel:

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

 

Whose six controlled years would you rather have?

#1 overall prospect
OR
#8 and #12

All three are big league read… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

16 Oct 2018

Kiley McDaniel: so if Vlad is a comfortable favorite over 8+12, that gives you a pretty good idea of what a “fair” trade would be

Rays: With Brendan McKay struggling with his hitting, should the Rays continue to let McKay hit or let him pitch for now on?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s still top 150-200 overall as simply a hit/power first baseman, so obviously no. To have a guy be that good as a hitter and clearly better as a pitcher is insanely rare and there’s plenty of ways to deploy that, most commonly suggested as a rotation guy that DHs whenever possible like Shohei Ohtani started as

Kiley McDaniel: Saving a roster spot and creating two solid regulars with one spot is incredibly valuable, especially for a small market team. That’s why TB is trying this with Tanner Dodson (2018 2nd rounder RHP/RF) and I would bet they try it with other guys

Hello: Peter Alonso for Paul Goldschmidt.  Who says no?

Kiley McDaniel: Pretty good one

Kiley McDaniel: Goldschmidt is 31, has 1 year left at $14.5M and his last three years have been 5.0, 5.2, 5.1 WAR (with a 7.2 right behind that)

Kiley McDaniel: if he’s open market for only one year deals, he would get like about $30M

Kiley McDaniel: so that’s $16M in surplus value, maybe a little more since competing teams could see him as the missing piece

Kiley McDaniel: We’ll be sharing more on this soon, but I’d say Alonso is worth about $25-30M

Kiley McDaniel: So, since it’s only one year, the Mets say no (plus the Mets probably aren’t trying to go for it in 2019). But if it was 2 years and it was a contender that was trading Alonso, it probably flips the other way

Kiley McDaniel: I go through this example because we will have a lot more in the coming weeks about the math behind instances such as this

Mac: If you and Eric were able to hire a 3rd person for your prospect team and locate him/her anywhere in the country/world you wish, where would it be most beneficial (excluding the obvious Dominican Republic)?

Kiley McDaniel: Not sure there’s a clear answer. Obviously middle of the country like Texas would be good. Hot spots that would also help like SoCal (Eric can still get there easily) and NC/GA/FL (I live in one and can get to the other two pretty easily) don’t make quite as much sense. Northeast has a lot of pro stuff for 5 months but not a whole lot else. Major city in Texas with the ability to get into the Midwest via car is probably the answer

mark: Do you think AJ Preller would prefer one gm candidate over another, under the assumption that he is trying to trade for Noah Syndergaard. More broadly, do you think it is easier for say him and an analytics driven guy to come together, or do you think he would be able to make a better deal with a more old school type of gm.

Kiley McDaniel: I think a more analytically-inclined GM will be more likely to want to sell/rebuild while he rebuilds the front office/processes and that GM would also have different opinions about players than AJ, so a deal would be easier (this would generally apply to Chaim Bloom). I would not assume Doug Melvin would trade arguably their best player in his first winter.

Kiley McDaniel: And I don’t think anyone knows what Brodie would do with the big decisions, other than wear Gucci loafers

Judson Castro: You moved again?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, bought a house in Atlanta, will be all settled in before the holidays. Shouldn’t really change what sort of games I get to going forward other than a little more SEC/ACC and a little less Florida State League

Loogie: What are Peter Alonso’s odds of success in the majors. Does he have AJ Reed downside?

Kiley McDaniel: Every 1B-only prospect has that risk. I’d say there’s a good chance that he has 2-3 good years in his first 3-4 seasons. Not sure how well that type of player will age

Kiley McDaniel: And there’s a chance the defense is a real problem, which could undermine his role, especially with a traditional manager/GM

Jay: How much if any, do AZL level prospects have in terms of trade value? Asking specifically about players in Cleveland’s system like Valera and Rocchio, since their system lacks a lot of high-end talent at the upper levels to use in trades this offseason.

Kiley McDaniel: Not every team scouts those leagues enough or trusts the TrackMan enough to really pay a lot in trades, but that changes once there’s a full season in Low-A of performance and the associated data. Referenced this in who will win the next 5 WS article. I think those guys have much wider appeal starting around the deadline next summer and going forward

Nico: Has Hoerner or Justin Steele’s AFL performance shifted your valuations for either of them? Have seen various reports on Steele’s velocity/stuff.

Kiley McDaniel: You can ask Eric for details since I haven’t seen him, but he wasn’t super enthused by Steele. We already had Hoerner pretty high, but sounds like he’s been solid

Slurve: When top 1st round prospects “fail”, other than injury, what are some of the causes (given how much research and exposure they usually provide, etc.)

Kiley McDaniel: Being less athletic usually via weight gain and having tools/velo back up, not being able to lay off/identify off speed pitches (“can’t hit”), awful makeup that impacted work ethic

Frank: Does Anthony Kay have mid-rotation upside, or is he more likely to top out as a 4/5 starter?

Kiley McDaniel: B

Quinn: Does Christin Stewart have a realistic shot at 30 homers in his peak? What kind of power do you see out of him in 2019?

Kiley McDaniel: Sure, 25-30 is reasonable, but the bar at DH is so high that he has to do that and also get on base

Buster: Which team do you think is best situated to cash in its prospects this winter in a big trade (ala Milwaukee last year)?

Kiley McDaniel: Atlanta is positioned but I don’t think they’re itching to empty the cupboard. Tampa Bay is crazy deep and has a good club, so they seem more likely to try it just to consolidate into fewer assets like STL did last year with Ozuna

Greyson: Keith Law said the Tigers were among the teams most far behind analytically. Do you agree, and if so are they at least moving in the right direction relative to other teams?

Kiley McDaniel: They were definitely bottom 5 when Avila took over and they are moving in the right direction, but it’s a reaaaally long way from bottom 5 to top 5

Rox Fan: Odds that the Rockies can extend Arenado this winter? And if they cannot get an extension they should trade him, right?

Kiley McDaniel: Discussed this situation recently in a podcast (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-…) and i think he would’ve signed an extension already if he was open to that. I think he wants to test the market and with Story/Rodgers/Hampson, the Rockies have cheaper replacements

Kiley McDaniel: But if they think they’re gonna make the playoffs again in 2019 and want to try to keep him and will take the comp picks if they don’t…then they’ll just hold

Frank: Whens the new top prospect list dropping?

Kiley McDaniel: Post WS. We’re already working on them, so a few will be done before they come out.

Anthony: Can scouts at all forecast pitcher injury risk based on the eye test, or is that something entirely random or only possible with biomechanical tracking?

Kiley McDaniel: Can’t imagine it’s any better than a monkey throwing darts if that’s all you’re using. Throwing in medical history, velocity, biomechanical, etc. does a much better job and still nobody really knows

Matt: No question, I just love your “As Yet Untitled” podcast with Longenhagen – thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: This guy gets it

Lefty: Are the Giants just covering all their bases by kicking every tire, or is the looming shadow of Sabean staying in the organization dissuading bright candidates from taking the job?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think that’s the case. Sounds like they want a new head honcho and Sabean will be stepping back

Kiley McDaniel: But if ownership wants a winner and doesn’t want to rebuild, some people may not want to step into that

Ghost of Ned Yost: I know these questions are difficult but I’m trying to build a model to figure out what teams place the most value on ceiling especially when it comes to starting pitching. Who are some arms outside the top say 75-80 that could become an ace caliber if everything clicks? Like the DL Halls, Pearsons and Matt Mannings types.

Kiley McDaniel: Outside of the top 100: Cole Winn, Shane Baz, Riley Pint, Luis Medina, Mason Denaburg…there’s really not that many.

Kiley McDaniel: This is another topic that we have some stuff to share with the readers during the offseason list process

Jo-Nathan: What should the Orioles do with their international cap now that they whiffed on the Mesa’s and Gaston?

Kiley McDaniel: Sign 20 guys for an average of 200K and you just spent $4M to give yourself much better rookie ball talent

Stevil: If Atlanta trades pitching prospects to address holes on the field, who do you believe is most likely to be dangled?

Kiley McDaniel: Would not be surprised is Sean Newcomb is the top name that gets dangled

Nicholas: What did you think of the Mets considering a couple player agents as potential GMs?  Do you think agents in general would be good baseball ops personnel?

Kiley McDaniel: Unless I know specifically otherwise, I would assume any agent with no front office experience would be overwhelmed in a GM job

UNLESS they are self-aware enough to recognize that ahead of time and surround themselves with smart people that they can delegate to and do more of a CEO decision maker type thing. In that case, I think some agents could possibly succeed. Not sure any of them have that kind of humility right out of the chute, from my experiences with that sort.

JD: If you’re a rebuilding team like the Tigers and Reds, do any FA pitchers fly under the radar that might be worth a chance and a deadline flip next July? I remember all last year everyone raved about Tyler Chatwood’s uptick in velo and spin (woops) and I’m wondering if there’s someone underrated that’s seen positive trends that might get a flyer.

Kiley McDaniel: Steady veteran relievers is the best demographic to invest in FA for a rebuilding team interested in flips

Kiley McDaniel: Or buy low/one year deal/prove it types with some upside. Rich Hill back in the day is an example of this.

Jo-Nathan: I know a lot of J2 news seems to come out late November, when can we expect to see the 2019 J2 list added to THE BOARD?

Kiley McDaniel: February at the earliest (when I see many of them in the DR), still probably within a month or so of J2

Guest: What is it about Mackenzie Gore that makes him such a better prospect than Luis Patino?  Patino is younger, performed better at the same level, and throws harder.

Kiley McDaniel: Gore is left-handed with more track record and he’s bigger, probably a little more athletic

Ybored at work: Does Wander Franco’s bat compare to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?

Kiley McDaniel: Not quite as good, but closer than people think. And obviously the speed/defense/position is light years better

Matt: Coming out of high school, what were the differences between Parker and Austin Meadows?

Kiley McDaniel: Parker was bigger/faster, probably a little more power, too, but less track record of hitting and much bigger questions on the contact ability

Kiley McDaniel: VVM (not publishing the question): the Almora-Mesa comp is everywhere. I talked to multiple scouts after the Mesa workout and they all said Almora was the best comp they could come to. One director who has signed many Cubans said it was “a perfect comp.” Maybe he ends up as another kind of player (that’s kinda the nature of projections/scouting), but it isn’t a debate that lots of people think this.

JD: To follow up on Garrett, any advice for a compsci graduate student who’s interned with two teams (video), has pretty decent coding experience on the side, but still doesn’t feel he stands out.

Kiley McDaniel: Spanish would be the last thing I’d recommend. And being around, but not annoying to, powerful people in the game

iggy: you can learn SQL in like two weeks can’t you? I’ve always heard that and R are a lot easier than say a Python

Kiley McDaniel: Took me months to get comfortable with it, but learning the basics isn’t that hard. Never really got into those other two very much.

Mark: Any word on who the Orioles are looking at to run their organization?

Kiley McDaniel: The buzz is traditional/older types, but they’re also talking to moderate/younger types. Some buzz than Angelos wants to hand over control to one person to run all of baseball ops, but you can understand if the candidates are dubious, with the track record, the sons around and Brady Anderson lurking.

Jason: There is some talk that Rays may not protect Joe McCarthy on the 40 man before the Rule V draft this offseason. Does that sound crazy to you? I mean the Rays are obviously a smart org, but that their depth might actually lead to a player like that reaching the Rule V draft?

Kiley McDaniel: He would definitely get taken, probably with the top pick. They should trade him if they aren’t going to protect him. I would heavily guess they protect him.

Kiley McDaniel: I can’t remember the last time a 45 FV type prospect wasn’t protected. Tyler Goeddel was a solid 40 FV when he was unprotected, that was somewhat surprising at the time and he went 1st.

Jason: The Braves surplus of pitching talent is starting to cause a logjam.  Whom do you trade assuming it’s an outfield slugger or established #1 type starter ?  Would you start a package w soroka or Wright ?

Kiley McDaniel: I think J.T. Realmuto would be the big fish if they made a big move. I wouldn’t trade those guys, but a Realmuto trade would have to have 1-2 uncomfortable names included.

Andrew: Which Braves pitching prospect makes the most sense in a 1-for-1 swap for Madison Bumgarner?

Yadi: What type of package could Madison Bumgarner fetch?

Kiley McDaniel: 1yr $12M on Bumgarner. Allard/Wentz/Muller are right in that range on a 1-for-1.

37: Not sure if you mind pitching your podcast again, but people should listen to the podcast, if only for the Barbecue Yee segment, which was one of the funniest things I’ve heard in sports this year.

Kiley McDaniel: I thought so too! (that’s segment 3 from the most recent episode, linked at the top)

Joe: Please continue to talk about how scouting staffs, player development staffs and front office staffs are set up. I find that fascinating. Also please keep reporting on who teams are hiring for those departments, with invites on what the hires mean for those teams!

Kiley McDaniel: Ok we will! Seems like we’ve found a niche with absurd baseball stories, front office chatter and Jeff Passan repartee

Boyfred Boi: Challenge trade:  Dan Vogelbach for Dominic Smith?

Kiley McDaniel: Smith is much better, Vogelbach is a DH

opie: why would teams not trust TrackMan? Do you just mean in small doses?

Kiley McDaniel: Correct and things like power (measured via exit velo) rise as teenagers get to be older, thus there’s less projection necessary. When Acuna was an 18 year old CF with tons of 105+ and 110+ balls, that how you knew he was special, at least in that one way. There’s young hitters that are high on prospect lists that can’t really hit the ball 105+, but there’s belief that they will in a few years.

Bailey: I stay up at night not being able to sleep because I am beyond excitement regarding Drew Waters.  Am I wrong to be THIS excited? He seems like a superstar.

Kiley McDaniel: I’d tone it down a bit, but that’s on the table

Boyfred Boi: It would appear that Vladimir Guerrero Jr is not challenged by the AFL.  Are the Jays going to keep him in AAA for 2 months to start the year?

Kiley McDaniel: I would bet exactly 11 days

Jake: Just started reading about Kristian Robinson and Ronny Mauricio.  Do you consider both those guys as having huge ceilings?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes. KR is an NFL WR type toolset and RM is a big SS that can do almost anything you want him to.

Ray: So if you were the Astros, would you be a believer in Kyle Tucker to take the LF job next year and run with it? Luhnow didn’t seem to indicate adding offense is a priority this winter, which kind of made me think he must feel like one of Tucker/Fisher/Davis/someone will ultimately break out there

Kiley McDaniel: He’s as good a bet as a free agent bat on a multi year deal akin to Josh Reddick, there just may be a month or two to break in Tucker.

That Time?: THAT. TIME.

Kiley McDaniel: oh man it is

Jeff Sullivan: Kiley Kiley Bo-Biley Na-fana-fo-Filey Me-my-mo-Miley.  Kiley!

Kiley McDaniel: thanks jeff

Jo-Nathan: I know a lot

Doritos Locos Tacos: DORITOS. LOCOS. TACOS.

Kiley McDaniel: oh damn i could go for one of those rn