Kiley McDaniel Chat – 11/28/18

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from FG ATL HQ where there’s a staggering amount of leaves in the backyard, but it allows Scout to run laps like she’s in the snow, leaving a trail when she pulls a tight turn

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of stuff happening with rumored trades, one big one done, free agency, prospect lists and a fresh draft rankings update coming next week

Tommy N.: Thoughts on Dan O’Dowd’s trade proposal yesterday on MLB Network of Thor and d’Arnaud for Hedges, Lucchesi, and Paddack?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s not terrible, but I don’t think that will get it done. We also don’t know if the Mets
1) won’t trade Thor/deGrom and are just listening
2) want to trade them both this winter
3) will consider only overpays, likely waiting at least until the summer to have a clear idea

Kiley McDaniel: So the price for option 2 and option 3 are probably different, since option 3 either gets an overpay or no deal

Kiley McDaniel: And until the BVW administration makes some moves, we don’t really know where they stand or how they value players, etc.

Kiley McDaniel: I think it’s like a 75% chance they’re in option 3, so only retail prices will get it done and the above deal is not retail

Diego: I was so excited to hear you mention option pricing for valuation on UMP as a finance geek and thought “Yes Kiley, go on…” then you let me down bro and didn’t expand.

Kiley McDaniel: Uofortunately I would have to do some Wikipedia refreshing to go full finance bro. I bet Meg could pull it off tho!

Mike: How much of Fernando Tatis‘ value is him playing SS in the near term? If he moves to 3B, how much does that affect his value as a prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: Not much. Either avg to slightly below at SS or above at 3B. More likely he can be a SS, if SD doesn’t have a clearly better def SS that needs to be in the lineup, given shifting, Corey Seager, etc.

pelkey: this seems like old news now, but could you estimate a braves-equivalent package to what the yankees sent for paxton please?

Kiley McDaniel: You can look at the year-end prospect rankings here and approximate it: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2018-in-season-prospect-…

Kiley McDaniel: Something like one from the Kyle Wright/Ian Anderson/Soroka area, and a couple 40/45 toss-ins, preferably in the upper levels or MLB-ready

ABravesFan: With a not-so-dominant postseason, might Craig Kimbrel sign a short term (or incentive laden) contract with the Braves to rebuild his value?

Kiley McDaniel: Possible, but only after his market collapses and I tend to think it won’t. He should get 3×15 and I think I projected 4 years. Personally, I’d rather have Ottavino at 3×12 than Kimbrel at 4×13, if that’s what the prices are

DJ Tanner: On Monday’s chat with Dan, I laid a plan for the Braves to trade Soroka, Riley, and Gohara to the Mets for Thor and then sign Donaldson moving Camargo to utility. Well Donaldson came to fruition, so it looks like I have psychic powers and the Braves will now get Thor. This seems like a win-win as the Mets get 3 high ranking prospects who are all MLB ready and their future infield (Alonso, McNeil, Rosario, Riley) looks set for the next decade. Plausible?

Kiley McDaniel: I think that’s an overpay from the Braves perspective, but I’m assuming the Mets don’t want to face Thor the next 3 years, so maybe that’s what it takes

BigDavid: Andre Gimenez, would you be dangling him as trade bait with Rosario under long term control and guys like Mauricio and Newton in the minors?

Kiley McDaniel: Low floor SS, probably lands somewhere from 2-3 wins annually. I mean that’s fine if you want to trade him, but without a bump in payroll it’s hard to see this team competing in the short term and having Rosario/Mauricio/Newton is a terrible reason to just trade a SS. So, I wouldn’t.

Bart: Can we measure the monetary value of roster spot, which is
limited and valuable  resource for teams?
By doing so, we could say like, a 4-win player is more valuable than two 2-win players for he costs only one roster spot, or a highly versatile player (or two way player) can provide some roster spot value in addition to his WAR.
And for the 40-man roster, I sometimes think prospect A, a college draftee, is more valuable than prospect B, a similler prospect but a IFA signee, because player B may costs 40-man roster spot to protect him from rule 5 draft while he still needs time in minor leagues.

Kiley McDaniel: Good luck trying to quantify that. Knowing the specific situation impacts those decisions a lot and they’re never the same.

Lucius Fox III: Any pitchers in USA Baseball’s 18U team stick out to you?  Maybe Jack Leiter or Timmy Manning in 2020?

Kiley McDaniel: Just talked to a scout about that team yesterday and he said 2019s Malone/Leiter and 2020 Mick Abel were the best guys by a good margin. And Leiter wasn’t particularly good at this event. Abel could be in the conversation as a HS RHP that goes top 5 overall.

Kiley McDaniel: if he continues at this trajectory, doesn’t get hurt, knocks on wood, etc.

Cardno: What kind of trade value does Marcus Stroman have at this stage?

Kiley McDaniel: I know that ask was multiple top 100 guys in a few cases at the deadline and nobody bit. 2 years of control of a 55-60 PV/FV pitcher coming off a down year. There isn’t a recent version of that trade coming to mind. Sonny Gray was 2.5 years and he was pitching well when traded

KD: I know it may not be the popular take, but I think Donaldson at $23M is way too much.  Sure…1 year is nice and he is only a few years removed from his MVP, but the possibility he returns little value (because of performance and/or injury) is much higher than I would like for a $23M player.   Your thoughts?

Kiley McDaniel: Strong disagree. He could miss 2/3 of the season, still be worth 1.5ish WAR, then be useful in the playoffs (i.e. the same as a disappointing 2018) and that’s worth about $15M, maybe more to a playoff team. And that’s a like 20th percentile outcome. There’s a real chance, maybe 1 in 4 that he’s a 4+ WAR player. Steamer projects him for 4 WAR, so probably more 1 in 2 for them. That caliber of player never signs for 1 year and the premium for getting that low risk 1 year deal is under $10 million. Plus a high draft pick if he leaves or trading him if you’re out of the race!

Kiley McDaniel: I calculate that thinking that he could get 15-18M on a 3 year deal, so 23-16.5=6.5M. Not a huge premium to go from 3 years to 1 there.

Slamboni: MLB network floated out the idea of the Yankees trading Stanton to make room to sign Harper. Is it just me or is that idea… really dumb? A lot of work to get worse defensively and get a similar LH bat instead of a RH bat

Kiley McDaniel: I mean if someone takes Stanton’s money it’s not dumb. He’s high variance with an insane contract, may fall off a cliff soon and just came off of a good/healthy year. This would be selling about as high as NYY could. May get more than they paid for him since MIA is already paying down the money and he’s been healthy recently. Now who would actually do that, I think you’re gonna have lots of trouble finding that team. But hypothetically a retail shopper for Stanton, they should be interested.

adam: You said a week ago with Brian Kenny Machado over Harper. Fair and short question– why?

Kiley McDaniel: I said it on there, but say it a  little more detail here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-free-agency-analysis-fangraphs-doe…

Kyle: After reading the Pirates list I noticed the write up was extremely high on Oneil Cruz but it seems like his actual ranking was hedged. He’s that volatile?

Kiley McDaniel: There aren’t a lot of gangly 6’7 shortstops with 80 raw power, so yeah there’s a bit of hedging there since he’s a good example of the good and bad of high variance. Could be a 5 WAR guy or never make it.

Link: Can Austin Riley play 50 defense in LF?

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe more 45, but he’ll be fine

Enrique: Ronny Mauricio or Brayan Rocchio or Isaac Paredes?  Which would you prefer in dynasty fantasy?   Where defense doesn’t matter except to the extent that they may be forced to move to a non-middle infield position and become less valuable.   Thanks Kiley

Kiley McDaniel: Paredes is much closer and his value isn’t tied up in SS specifically, but he’ll stick in the infield.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: If you were Klentak, would you trade Sixto for anything? His profile I believe doesn’t have a history of working out, but he’s also hurt so his stock may be down.

Kiley McDaniel: This isn’t the time to trade him, given the injuries. If he shoves next year and is healthy, he’ll be near peak value at the deadline if they’re in striking distance

Kiley McDaniel: He also may pitch himself into untouchable/best pitching prospect in baseball territory

Kiley McDaniel: If I’m PHI, I use money and all the MLB youngsters to try to remake the team and leave the premium assets (Nola, Hoskins, Sixto, Medina) alone

greg: What would you need to see from Tony Santillan to bump up his 45 FV from the last update?

Kiley McDaniel: Finalizing that list now, may be up on Friday. Either 45+ or 50, it would appear

Brian: Will FanGraphs be introducing a Trade Machine similar to what ESPN has for the NBA? In other words a tool which would allow me to see, for example, which Padres prospects/players would be a fair return for Thor.

Kiley McDaniel: funny you mention that

DanInNC: Give your quick assessment of Lonnie Chisenhall in his new situation, and whether the Pirates could/should have done better.  Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: Almost snuck him on the end of the top 50 FA. Nice gamble as a platoon corner bat, buying low

Gary: If all Presidents/GMs were let free into the wild who would get the highest contract and what would it be?

Kiley McDaniel: Cistulli

Adam: How much does your opinion of a GM rely on what they tried to do vs what they did do when other factors were involved? Meddling owners, a player drafted one spot ahead, etc.)

Kiley McDaniel: Much of it. Eric and I hear about a lot of these things behind the scenes and don’t report it. Like some scouting staffs getting remade, pretty minor scoops regarding people we know and talk to often that we keep to ourselves. Often right after the draft you’ll hear which teams got their pocket picked and you remember those for later. One notable one was TB having Christian Yelich as the next option if Josh Sale wasn’t there in 2010. Usually don’t see the wild swings that low in the draft since the stars usually go up top. Everyone has a Trout story.

Tim: Braves actually more likely to land Lebron than Harper like Olney suggests this morning? Could they win the Eastern Conference and the NL??

Kiley McDaniel: BIG IF TRUE

Guest: How do you project Antonio Santillan? Any  realistic chance to be a 1 or 2 SP

Kiley McDaniel: Probably 3 or late relief

Guest: Nate Pearson still have legit potential to be elite if things go well?

Kiley McDaniel: He’ll probably always be elite in some way regardless of how this goes. Seems more likely to be reliever than 1 year ago at this time, but that’s no longer a pejorative, especially with a 95 mph slider

Xolo: If you Freaky Friday’d with Preller, what players would you make untouchable in trade talks?

Kiley McDaniel: I need to know if it’ll be more like the original or the Lohan remake

Kiley McDaniel: or the Lil Dicky music video

J Dog: what are the responsibilities of a team’s Director of Baseball Operations?  Is that person usually capable of building stat models in R, SQL, etc?

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of different versions of that job since titles are kinda fluid now. Traditionally it’s the admin person that knows MLB and contract rules, handles budgets, interns and get some exposure to everything but is the lead on that stuff.

Kiley McDaniel: sorta chief of staff type role. some teams have that guy with an AGM title that does that duties, so he can’t be poached

Kiley McDaniel: well Jean Afterman w/NYY does some of these things, too. So let’s go with they or he/she

Kiley McDaniel: Typically R/SQL stuff is only in the R&D/analytics department and anyone outside that group that has those skills is a positive

Rudy: Jose Siri– was hurt early and played better late . Has anything changed-still high risk/reward?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes and also the defensive metrics weren’t as good and his approach is still too aggressive. Getting a little old for the “yeah but what if everything clicks” disclaimer

Kiley McDaniel: Anthony Alford, Monte Harrison, Lewis Brinson, Jorge Mateo, etc. there’s lots of those types of players with elite tools/upside and a hole or two and the recent track record at least hasn’t been positive. Kyler Murray also fits in that group, broadly speaking.

LioneeR: How many of those questions for your Thanksgiving(or close to it) chat were actually from your family?

Kiley McDaniel: I suspect almost half of them

Kiley McDaniel: I asked the room for their input on like half of my answers and they busted out laughing a little too often

Bearry: Sanchez, McCarthy, and one of the excess ML bullpen arms (Roe?) or MIF (Duffy) for Bauer. Close?

Kiley McDaniel: In the ballpark value wise and also makes sense for team needs. That’s an acceptable chat trade proposal, congrats! I think CLE would prefer a lower variance, more MLB-ready OF option that Sanchez, but that’s more me guessing.

Kiley McDaniel: Also clears out TB’s 40-man a bit, which they’d like. Similar crunch to NYY in recent years

Freduardo Freeman: What are the odds the braves choose to hold ALL of their pitching prospect depth this offseason in hopes of being able to develop the ace they seem to be searching for during 2019?

Kiley McDaniel: That feels unlikely. I’d bet they trade at least one. I’ll set the over/under of a 45 FV or better pitching prospect traded this offseason for ATL at 1.5

Kiley McDaniel:

Kiley McDaniel: The 9 pitchers considered for this: Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, Touki Toussaint, Bryse WIlson, Kyle Wright, Luiz Gohara, Kolby Allard, Joey Wentz, Kyle Muller

Kiley McDaniel: Also, somewhat related question

Kiley McDaniel:

kevin: Is there any chance Jeren Kendall learns to hit?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve been leaning no since he got to Vandy, so I’ll stick with that. There’s hope, tho.

Eric: See Atlanta getting someone like Brantley still? Or are resources running low?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s money. Brantley (no QO) seems like the most likely OF choice, I projected 3×15 I believe

Jon: Please rank the following non-Kiley spellings of Kiley (per Wikipedia)!: Kylie, Koilee, Kilee, Kyly, Kilee, Kylee

Kiley McDaniel: I maintain that I have the only masculine spelling of my name and I won’t hear anything to the contrary, my ego is fragile

Jake: Who will be the new scouting directors in Houston and Baltimore?

Kiley McDaniel: Good question! Talked to a few people about that yesterday. I expect non-traditional hires and it could be more of a committee approach in terms of the process. Don’t have any dope, but interested to see what they do.

Jeremy: Miguel Amaya and Patrick Bailey are both 19, both catchers, and both 50 fv prospects on THE BOARD. But one of them plays professionally in full-season ball in the Cubs organization, and one of them is a sophomore at NC State. When you encounter an amateur and a pro player with the same fv, how do you tiebreak them? Do you pick the pro player because he’s further along? Or the college player for … some other reason?

Kiley McDaniel: Case by case but typically lean the pro option. Way more information

Kiley McDaniel: I could go see Bailey opening weekend and make him a 45 and that’s unlikely in a handful of games watching a guy like Amaya

Kiley McDaniel: Bailey is a 2020, so scouts generally haven’t watched him closely yet since he wasn’t a big name in HS

VaBravesFan: Pache, Anderson, Gohara, Allard, and Izzy for Diaz and Haniger? Who says no?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think SEA wants Gohara back at a markup, especially after a down year, but this isn’t totally nuts on paper.

romorr: The amount of optimism in Birdland is insane considering our 47-115 record.  Who said FO hirings can’t be sexy?

Kiley McDaniel: gotta trust the process

BK: With all these FG writers going to the MLB, you’re on the opposite end of the spectrum. Can you tell us why Carson just made the biggest mistake of his life?

Kiley McDaniel: Carson you don’t have to disguise your name like that, I know it’s you

romorr: What does Bobby Witt Jr need to do to shoot up to 1.1 for you.  I know he is older for a HS player, so he has to have a monster year anyway.

Kiley McDaniel: Yes. He has 1-1 upside, but the offensive production has been a little hit and miss and he’s older. He’s in 1-1 conversations for some teams right now, but we aren’t there yet.

Jack: Is it just me or does the NY media narrative of the M’s so “desperately” want to move Cano’s contract – that they’re willing to eat half the contract and include Edwin Diaz – is absolutely ridiculous? If this was the case, shouldn’t 3/4 of the teams be in on this?

Kiley McDaniel: NY media roots for big stories and then if they happen they root for knocking the big move. They like to sell papers and draw attention. Trading for Cano, in a vacuum, makes no sense for the Mets. Their deepest position is 1B and that’s a win-now move for a team that isn’t geared to win now. There’s a lot of nonsense to wade through when you read what’s written about this team.

Sam: How much of a premium does a FO put into acquiring the “Top prospect in the organization” as compared to the prospect’s relative rank in a Top 100 list?

Kiley McDaniel: Some traditional FOs like it, some more GMs like it for short-term PR purposes. It’s a total nothing tho. I know of one somewhat recent blockbuster where a team turned down a better package b/c it wasn’t a team’s top guy and most of you wouldn’t be surprised to hear which GM that was.

NotGraphs Revivalist: Do you receive a disproportionate amount of Braves questions, answer a disproportionate amount of Braves questions, both, or neither?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s like 50% Braves questions in here, kinda nuts really. I mean they have a good farm and just made some moves and have lots of interesting decisions to make, so I would guess NYY and ATL and a couple other teams would be most popular in here, but it’s ATL by a lot most weeks

Tumbler, Whiskey: Any word on Oregon State’s Kevin Abel’s 2020 draft stock?

Kiley McDaniel: Average-ish stuff most of the season, so probably not top 2 rounds right now, but some of those guys creep into that area with 3 years of performance.

Billy Beane: You seen the A’s plan for a new stadium? Looks sick and also like the sort of thing that won’t happen.

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah I almost thought that looks so cool there’s no way it works out like this

anthony: Is Hoskins moving back to first base?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like PHI’s whole offseason had been put on hold to move Santana so they can do that, but it’s hard to move that kind of contract when all the free agents are available

Bearry: Rays need a big RH bat with Cruz/Goldy/Castellanos/Martinez/McCutch available . Who’s your bet?

Kiley McDaniel: Cruz or Goldy feel most likely, but McCutchen was who their scouts wanted instead of Wade Townsend until the old owner vetoed it, so that would be full circle for the almost local boy

Ford: Does MATT DAMON just hide in the comments until the chat is done, or is the question submitted early on and then you decide when to show it in the chat?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t ruin the mystery, man

Jeff: Thoughts on the Baird and Guttenberg hiring for the Mets?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve put a STRONG BUY on the invention of the printing press

Draftnik: Any 2020s on the 18U USa team who stand out? Crow-Armstrong (super young — 16U eligible this year)? or Rajcic?

Kiley McDaniel: Abel and Crow-Armstrong are both very solid. Yohandy Morales isn’t quite there yet but could be a monster if the body control comes along

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of current 95 mph arms in the 2020 class already. Carson Montgomery may be the best of that group, youngest of them as well

mike : bro an brah are the only reason I voted on that poll, btw.

Jon Gruden: Let me tell you about this Matt Moore

LioneeR: What features are you hoping/planning on implementing for THE BOARD?

Kiley McDaniel: Not going to ruin it, but already have some fun stuff that’s almost done to share

Padre Pete: You have Austin Allen at 40 FV, but possibly trending up…what are the biggest factors keeping him from being rated higher?

Kiley McDaniel: More of a 1B that can be a 3rd catcher for most scouts

IB Analyst: MLB FO hours – better / worse / same when compared to banking?

Kiley McDaniel: Kinda never ends, hours wise, so comparable I guess? That’s wall street banking, not tellers

Brian Cashman: Cano for Ellsbery

Brian Cashman: Segura for Prospects

Hello: Wait amateur players are on the BOARD?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes! and the old lists for amateurs are on there too! You can see how dumb we were!

Kiley McDaniel: (and speculate about how dumb we are now)

That time?: THAT. TIME?

Kiley McDaniel: oh man i think it is

Reginald VelJohnson: I’ve had it up to here with you, son.

QUILVIO.VERAS: QUILVIO.VERAS

Mr. Mister: Kiley eleison, down the road that I must travel
Kiley eleison, through the darkness of the night

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Kiley McDaniel: Alrighty that will do it for this week, thanks for reading