Kiley McDaniel Chat – 3/7/18

Kiley McDaniel: Alrighty my lunch is all set up and I’m ready to listen to selected things from you people

druidiful: You said to come yell at you, but you aren’t here yet!

Kiley McDaniel: I am now be thankful your punching bag has arrived, aggrieved internet citizen

Nat: What kind of player does Cole Tucker become? Is there enough power there for 15 HRS?

Kiley McDaniel: Raw power yes, game power maybe

Larry: Hey Kiley, thanks for the depth of info on the Braves list. Questions on two guys who weren’t listed — any update on the status of Matt Rowland, and is he a guy worth watching? Also, surprised no mention of Braulio Vasquez. I’m obviously scouting the statline, but I’ve been intrigued by him. Is he too small to be a factor?

Kiley McDaniel: Even with 65 guys mentioned I’m sure I’ll get some questions about guys I didn’t mention. It doesn’t mean they all suck.

If Rowland is healthy then he’s either on the list or close, some said Derek Lowe comps at draft time with power sinker/slider. Don’t think he’s thrown much since TJ, so he’s a wait and see. Vasquez is a 2B that can play 3B and can run, some contact skills, bench future is likely upside but need to see a little more performance to get excited in a deep system. Both were in contention to be on the others list.

Donaldson: Who do you think is most at risk of being disappointed in next year’s free agent market?  I’m not going to get Arietta’d am I?

Kiley McDaniel: Well I mean you aren’t going to be one of the top two paid players, so there’s always a chance you’re waiting on them. Also your agent is Machado’s agent last I checked so that might be a factor. Someone will sign much later or for much less or many fewer years but it’s impossible to know now

Howard : If Madrigal gets to 3 would he be in the mix for the Phils? He should be a fast mover and Kingery, Crawford, Franco seems locked in as the future

Kiley McDaniel: Have to imagine he will be discussed in some depth at every pick in the top 10. Teams outside the top 10 still don’t think he gets to them. The future is always changing man, always good to have another one. Franco and Crawford’s stock specifically have gone up and down a good bit

YouthBerry: What are your thoughts on Travis Swaggerty and his launch angle change and how much does it change his outlook in the upcoming draft?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s 8-12 overall right now, may even creep a little higher. Interested to see him in person.

YouthBerry: What are your thoughts on Nick Madrigal’s power upside? My views on him at the plate see that when looking at his leg kick, he reaches with his front leg and there’s not a lot of weight transfer forward when doing so. That makes him very much a handsy hitter which limits his power upside some to me. Agree?

Kiley McDaniel: I think his game power upside is a 50, which is amazing for a guy his size. Guys change swings all the time these days so I wouldn’t get bogged down in the mechanics when a guy performs everywhere and has great feel/instincts.

EC: Is Nick Madrigal the top position player in this year’s draft coming from college? How does he compare to Senzel, Bregman, etc from the past few years?

Kiley McDaniel: A little behind them, but not by much. Madrigal, Swaggerty are top two, then the two kids at Wichita State, Larnach, Eierman, Conine are the next group. Could all go in the top 30

Billy Beane: Per your Twitter(dot)com request: *clears throats* I AM HERE TO YELL AT YOU IN A BASEBALL CHAT! Thank you.

Kiley McDaniel: Good to see you, William. Loved your book

Michael: UK kid TJ Collett has been going off and believe leads the country in HR with 8. Being sophomore eligible, where does he go in the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: 70 raw, 1B/DH, contact is the only question. AJ Reed was kinda like that at the same school but Collett doesn’t have near the track record or hit projection at this point. Probably 4th round with chance to move higher?

DuPu: Any thoughts on Braves Shean Michel? Seems to have shown decently well in GCL and Appy League

Kiley McDaniel: Easy plus runner, good athlete, CF fit, swing isn’t bad. If he keeps performing, he’s a prospect.

Schoop of ice cream: Is Singer on the Strasburg level where we could see him up in late 2019?

Kiley McDaniel: No, not in the top 5 anymore at this point, stuff is down. May not be the best pitcher on the UF staff right now.

DuPu: Tyler Pike: failed starter due to command issues. Would he play up in the bullpen? His K% has always been great.

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think so, but is worth a try

Steck : More offensive upside: Trent Grisham or Ramon Laureano?

Kiley McDaniel: Grisham

Nate: If you’re the Padres, who do you keep in the majors and who do you send down to Triple-A between Hunter Renfroe and Franchy Cordero?

Kiley McDaniel: Can they send both down?

Kiley’s Mom: Hi Kiley, love you

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think you know how to submit chat questions

M.D. Pepper : Mason Denaburg vs. Carter Stewart tonight – will you be there?

Kiley McDaniel: I will! Have another game before that, too

Frank Menechino’s Estranged Son: Is the A’s organizational prospect list coming out later today? Tomorrow? I need my fix!!! (Thank you for all the amazing content!)

Kiley McDaniel: I think so? Soon if not tomorrow.

Inside Joke That Kiley Knows: Who has the better career – Bregman or Bellinger?

Kiley McDaniel: Bellinger

Peter: Your Austin Riley comment about him being able to handle right field stuck with me. Isn’t this the most logical solution to the problems of finding a 3rd OF to pair with Acuna and Inciarte? Then deal Inciarte when Pache is ready.

Kiley McDaniel: But then you have to find a 3B and those are harder to find

moose: why can’t mariners develop prospects

Kiley McDaniel: somebody go check on moose he sounds down

EBS: Where would Julio Pablo Martinez rank on your top 100? I think Baseball America had him around 60?

Kiley McDaniel: We have him as a high variance 45, so not on the list. Would like to put eyes on him and see how he adjusts to pitching here, but definitely good enough to make the list next year.

Mark: who’s a recent “star” or above average big league regular that had 40/45 FV due to a high risk rating, but ended up reaching his ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m guessing I would’ve had George Springer as a 45 right after the draft or maybe when he was striking out a lot

Kiley McDaniel: But would’ve pointed out his upside is stupid, high variance, all that stuff. Aaron Judge probably would’ve been at one point in the minors as well.

Sonny: When can we freak out about prospect ST performance, good or bad?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m going with never

Bill: Who would you expect to be a better hitter and player over the next two seasons, Albies or Calhoun

Kiley McDaniel: for WAR, Albies

Ian: Why is Willie Calhoun not getting the draft love many of the prospect scouts have been giving him?

Kiley McDaniel: We had him stuffed p good at 46 so don’t come at me with that weak stuff mane https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/

Cole: Glad to see Akeel Morris on the Braves list posted yesterday. But why would Atl send him down so early if he’s likely to be utilized at the big league level during 2018? What’s the value of sending him down so early?

Kiley McDaniel: Believe he was only called up since he was the only realistic option to fill in for a few days that was already on the 40-man and healthy

Anthony: You said to come yell at you so…HERE I AM

Kiley McDaniel: Thanks for the support, guys

Dakota: What you eating? lol

Kiley McDaniel: Just went to Whole Foods, so have some meatballs and al pastor from the hot food section, some baked sweet plaintains, sprinach and I might get into more shrimp dumplings I don’t know I don’t know if I’ll have enough time

Sharp: Seth Romero got sent home from camp, but apparently just for team rules problems.  Warning sign going forward, or just a dumb kid who is still projected to be in A ball this year, so no problems?

Kiley McDaniel: This is never good and it wasn’t hard to see coming. Boras gives, Boras taketh away.

DuPu: I applaud your efforts to lunch and type, although science has shown that multitasking means you’re doing one or the other poorly. Which is it?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s al pastor on the floor you’re welcome and so is my dog

JK: Will UCF complete the series sweep tonight?

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe! Don’t know the pitching matchup but last night was pretty electric. UF has to be a pretty solid favorite tonight tho

Pennsy: Why are there no openly gay players in Major League Baseball?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably the same reason there aren’t any in the other major sports either

Mountie Votto: Highest (dream big) upside C in the Reds system? Is it Stephenson or Okey?

Kiley McDaniel: Stephenson has a lot more upside

GSon: Can you see Yandy Diaz, the darling of the hardest hit/least results slugger break out this year?.

Kiley McDaniel: I’m a believer. If he can just lean back and put some of those hard hit balls in the air, he’s a guy

Jake: Sorry if I’ve missed it before, but do you guys have a writeup or a quick take on Julio Pablo Martinez?

Kiley McDaniel: Short writeup is plus runner, CF fit, avg raw, chance to be an above avg regular, but some contact questions

Kiley McDaniel: So a 45 FV for now with a wide range of outcomes

Actually from ATL: IF (capital eye, capital eff) Austin Beck reaches his ceiling, does he look something along the lines of George Springer? I’ve always read that Beck’s tooled up but there’s significant effort to his game, which makes me think of Springer.

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe? Not quite that big, so a little different, maybe a little lower ceiling, but something like that

Kc: Space Coast today for Carter Stewart and Mason Denaburg?

Kiley McDaniel: Didn’t expect high school baseball schedules to be such a hot topic today

Billy Beane: What are your thoughts on Franklin Barreto? Sometimes I get frustrated by him and then I remember that he turned 22 like literally last week.

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/

Kiley McDaniel: He’s very talented

Kyle: Jahmai Jones ceiling  = Mookie Betts?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope

Davell: Hey Kiley, any teams in particular that you think are going to have an excellent IFA signing period, coming up?

Kiley McDaniel: I like the headliners for the Giants (SS Marco Luciano) and Dodgers (C Diego Cartaya) so I’d say them so far.

stephen: I really like what I have seen of both Luis Medina & Deivi Garcia.

Kiley McDaniel: Medina is great super high variance guy that’s also fun to watch throw hard with a good breaker

Kyle Schwarber: I’m a Cubs fan. There’s a rivalry brewing in the city with the Sox and their rebuilding plan. How worried should I be of Robert becoming a Superstar? Is that his ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: You’re really stretching to worry about a guy that hasn’t played above the DSL when you just won a title and your rival is terrible.

Joe : Was Jefry Ramos given consideration for your Braves list?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah he was in the mix, plus raw power, LF fit, some contact issues. Not an enormous upside given the profile, so need to see him make contact at a higher level.

Alex: Can Gavin Sheets hit enough for a 1b prospect?  His stat line (I know) was disappointing for a college bat.

Kiley McDaniel: I’m the low guy on Sheets, so I’d lean no but it’s big raw

Johnny : What makes baseball fun for you?

Kiley McDaniel: interacting with the readers just kidding

Joe: Are the Brewers linked to any top July 2 guys?

Kiley McDaniel: A number of them, actually. I think I have them with 5 guys so far. Eduardo Garcia SS VZ is really young and I liked him at the MLB showcase, Branlyn Jaraba is 3B from Colombia that I liked a good bit as well

WuShock: If Alec Bohm continues his current production would he be a top 10 lock and could he and Jenista both go top ten?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s a chance they both go top 10, but not a big chance. Probably both 10-20 right now.

Cohngone: Will Alex verdugo grow into more power, and, if not, isn’t he a bit overrated?  Below average speed and range and average arm mean that good contact alone will make him an average MLB regular, no?

Kiley McDaniel: 60 bat, 50 raw power, 50 defense, 60 arm

Hannah Hochevar: Even if they suck, the O’s will hold onto Machado out of stubbornness, right? Also, did you know stubbornness had two n’s in it?

Kiley McDaniel: I did not and I think they’ll move him at least by the deadline if they’re out of it. But they’ve probably already held him too long.

Kiley McDaniel: May be a bit of moral hazard and/or short sighted owner as well

Biggest Hazelbaker Fan: Diamondbacks traded Drury for Souza Jr. giving them a lackluster second baseman.  Until this the D-Backs felt a great need to get a starting OF.  Why is it that not a single person put any faith into the production of Jeremey Hazelbaker? His numbers through the year with his limited playing time have been very solid.

Kiley McDaniel: Feel like your name is a clue here

Connor: Hans Crouse: future ace? Delivery is suspect but his command was fine in the AZL and his stuff is almost unmatched.

Kiley McDaniel: It is not unmatched, you have to worry about the delivery/command/health and there’s a tiny tiny chance he’s an ace I would say almost zero. I mean name an ace that’s ever thrown like that or is named Hans

Greg: As a reds fan I’m getting nervous that the rebuild is failing. Can I get the chat equivalent of a hug ?

Kiley McDaniel: Guys, let all gather around Greg

bathroom: welcome to the bathroom

Kiley McDaniel: Quit being weird this is a group hug

Rhys: Has McClanahan overtaken Brady Singer as the top college pitcher in the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, for now

dave: Any other Danville/GCL Braves pitchers to watch out for? Odalvi Javier, Zach Becherer, Kelvin Rodriguez, Albinson Volquez?

Kiley McDaniel: Javier was a late cut, averageish stuff. Becherer could see the velo jump this year, keep an eye on him

GSon: The Indians picks # 29, # 34 and # 40, overall. Will they be able to get any of the following:

Kiley McDaniel: Am I being punk’d?

Vandy Fan: Pat DeMarco seems pretty good early on. Could he make some noise as a DE Soph?

Kiley McDaniel: Bat first guy without huge tools, so not too high but sure

Biggy: Is that Minnesota prospect, Brent Rooker, gonna sniff the majors this year?

Kiley McDaniel: He’ll have to go nuts but yeah maybe

Prospect Hipster: How unusually good is Bayron Lora’s power for his age?

Kiley McDaniel: Very good, but power over hit guys without a ton of athleticism at that age don’t have a sterling track record

JD: Is there anything Beer could do to put himself into the top 10?

Kiley McDaniel: If he hit a homer in every plate appearance from now until the draft I would find that a compelling data point and probably still wouldn’t take him at 10. But he’d be in my mix for sure.

GSon: ooops.. the Indians pick # 29, # 34 and # 40 respectively in the coming June first entry draft, 2018. Is it possible they can get two or more of :                                                              1. Conner Pilkington LHP Miss St

2. Nick Northcut 3B, Mason HS Ohio

3. Parker Meadows OF, Grayson HS Georgia

4. Conner Scott OF,

5. Alec Bohm 1B, Wichita State

6. Joe Gray Jr OF Hattiesburg Ms..
Please comment..

Kiley McDaniel: Pilkington should go around there. Northcut is a couple round below that. Meadows is below that. Scott and Bohm will go before 29. Joe Gray is right around there, maybe a bit lower.

Bo Diaz: Think Joe Musgrove is an above average SP this year?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes

Sircharles: Kiley I am stuck between drafting Puk, Luis Robert, Andujar in a points league and cant make up my mind. Send help.

Kiley McDaniel: Andujar probably for me

JD: Just read about Blaze Jordan committing to Mississippi State… when in 8th grade. Is that common? Does that mean anything? Generally, wtf?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah a handful of guys every year

Mountie Votto: Hi Kiley’s Mom, I love you

Kiley McDaniel: Lotta love in this chat

JV: What would Lucas Sims FV be if he were still a prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: 45

Logan Britt: What is my projection/ceiling? Am I on your radar for the first round in 2019?

Kiley McDaniel: You are, not first round right now but that’s possible. Power LH bat

David Stearns: What is Tristen Lutz projection/ceiling? Seems like he could be a .250 25HR guy with plus defense in RF

Kiley McDaniel: more avg defense but sure, maybe 30+ HR

Rhys: Is Gorman clearly the top prep hitter, as of right now?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes

M.D. Pepper : Re: Denaburg/Stewart – both seem to have added good weight and velo is up. Could either sneak into T10?

Kiley McDaniel: Possibly Stewart, yes. Denaburg not far behind

Riley: What do you think about Lodolo at TCU? If he were in this class where would you rank him?

Kiley McDaniel: Sandwich area probably, 88-91 early this year but big and some feel to pitch, 3 pitches

Peter: Sign Josh Donaldson, Riley to RF. Done and done.

Kiley McDaniel: Just cut the check and we’re all good, Peter

Billy Beane: Kevin Merrell hit a home run off of Carter Capps in Spring Training. I’m going to pretend that in addition to his 80 speed he has power potenitial and there is very little and also that spring training means anything.

Kiley McDaniel: He hit 2 homers in the game I saw him play last spring but he has very little power

Parker: Which Yankees prospect do you think would be better in relief: Chance Adams or Albert Abreu?

Kiley McDaniel: Abreu

Benny: Does a high school player’s college commitment influence you at all? Like if a player is committed to Vanderbilt or Florida, are you more likely to take a first or second look at them?

Kiley McDaniel: When I don’t know many guys on the field, that is often a proxy for a good player in the absence of other info. Vandy among other schools means probably a tougher sign as well

CamdenWarehouse: I came to chat with Scout.  How is she?  Can you share pictures?

Kiley McDaniel: She’s napping but she just looked up and added “woof”

Gary: UCF held its Saturday starter for tonight’s UF game, so seems crazy to say UF is a solid favorite. Also seems weirdly desperate for UCF to do that for a midweek game.

Kiley McDaniel: The Gators may have the best pitching staff in the history of college baseball. Their Tuesday guy is a freshman that would go in the top 50 picks if the draft was today. UCF’s Saturday guy is a soft tossing lefty. I think UCF is swithcing the Tuesday guy (Montgomery) into the weekend in the next few weeks. Nice job otherwise.

Billy Beane: Logistics question: I assume for fangraphs, you pretty much go to whatever games you want, right? Like, David Appelman presumably knows a lot less about where to see top prospects than you do. What about trips to the Dominican and whatnot, how does shceudling those through fangrahs work?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, I just go, basically.

Dougy: Was the Whole Foods comment intentionally inspired by Old School?  If so, you’ve moved up a notch in my book

Kiley McDaniel: This guy gets it

Jebby: when are you or Eric going to do a July 2 post?

Kiley McDaniel: Like a month early maybe? Sortable board!

Beastin 25/8: Future for Clint Frazier?

Kiley McDaniel: Not sure how you trade a rapper for an outfielder but I’m interested in this idea

Beastin 25/8: Eloy Jiminez projections for this year? (yours not STEAMER)

Kiley McDaniel: BOMBZ

CamdenWarehouse: When do the Orioles get more international bonus money they can trade?

Beastin 25/8: What’s the most money you’d spend on a set of legos?

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe we can convince Duquette to combine these ideas?

Hans Gruber: Thanks for your hardwork. Please don’t let the trolls jade you.  We need you Kiley

Kiley McDaniel: Surprisingly compassionate coming from you. Maybe you could spare some bearer bonds for a friend

Kiley McDaniel: Alrighty that’s all for this week I’m off to a high school doubleheader now