Kiley McDaniel FanGraphs Chat – 1/16/15

Kiley McDaniel: Why start being clever now?

Comment From Travis
Where do you rank Atlanta’s farm system now?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t done the Braves list yet, so they aren’t slotted into my (for the time being, private) org rankings yet. I have the Rockies 9th of the 16 teams I’ve done and the Braves have a better system than them. The next 2-3 teams above COL are kinda coinflips with ATL and the teams I haven’t done there’s only a couple that may be in this range. So probably 9th or 10th, give or take a few spots.

Comment From Bomok
Where would Rusney Castillo be on a top 100 prospect list? And what do you expect out of him next year?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d guess somewhere in the middle third of a top 100, but still too early for me that say that confidently.

Comment From Tommy
Given his contact issues, would Sano be nearly as intriguing if power wasn’t so down across the board?

Kiley McDaniel: I guess if you don’t play your power is down?

Comment From Mr. Miyagi
Who are the next couple of teams you’ll be writing up?

Kiley McDaniel: Just wrapped up research on ATL, NYY and BAL yesterday, so slotting those lists, editing some video, getting notes on final tweaks and writing them. Not sure which order they’ll go up. OAK is probably next after them.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Ben Badler posted today that he would have Moncada somewhere around the #12 prospect in MLB, too heavy, too light?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t have my list lined up yet, but I always figured I’d put Moncada top 10 or very close to it, so that sounds about right. I’m sure I’ll disagree with other publications outside of the top 25-30 prospects, but there’s usually a good bit of agreement on those top guys.

Comment From Matt
Hey Kiley, I enjoy the prospect write-ups. Why are so many of the “top” prospects, by ceiling, in Low-A and High-A? Is it just that they have tools but haven’t had the competition level to fail yet? That is, are equally-toolsy prospects who struggled in AA dropped in the future value scores as a result of having had their first failures?

Kiley McDaniel: Well a top prospect by ceiling that’s also at the upper levels is either Trout/Harper or not in the minors long enough to be called that. Also, scouts have a bit of a preference to the new guy they haven’t seen fail over the guy where you know the limits better (even if some adjustments can break those limits). Kinda how brand new people of either sex seem more attractive than people you’ve known for awhile.

Comment From Poops McGee
Is Julian Leon in the Dodgers system a legit prospect? What kind of player can he become?

Kiley McDaniel: Our first legit prospect question of the day! Looking forward to more

Comment From Tommy
Are you as pessimistic as others with Tomas? Will he even provide a Miggy level of defense at 3rd?

Kiley McDaniel: I haven’t seen him play there and I know he’s in better shape, but there’s a reason you didn’t hear many people calling him a maybe 3B. Most teams wouldn’t even bother trying him out there. Can’t say what he is until I see him do it, but I don’t have high expectations

Comment From the son of froglegs jackson
bring back podcast episodes with frankie piliere. it’s what the people want.

Kiley McDaniel: I told him that people were asking for that and he chuckled. I guess the people need Frankie to be one of the first guests on the pod. Next pod is taping in a few hours, so be sure to annoy Cistulli about when he edits/posts it

Comment From Guest
what should I get on my chipoltle burrito today?

Kiley McDaniel: I go bowl, double veggies, lettuce, mild/hot salsa, half and half barbacoa/carnitas because they have trouble measuring half amounts of the shredded meats with the tongs…so free extra meat and also I’m not nuts about the cubed meats.But if you go burrito, always try to scheme enough with no added charges to stuff it so big they have to double wrap it. That’s as American as burritos can get.

Comment From Pat G
I seem to be much higher on Braden Shipley than my League (and the industry at large). Tell me my optimism isn’t misplaced. Three above average (and still improving) pitches. Converted shortstop who fields his position superbly, is a good athlete with clean repeatable delivery.

Kiley McDaniel: I think I may be with you. I think I gave him three plus pitches and at least average command…problem is the consistency isn’t quite there yet since he’s new to the mound and doesn’t have lots of miles on his arm. Velo faded down the stretch, but could take a huge step forward this year.

Comment From Optimetstic
Do you project Matt Reynolds as a major league SS? I understand it’ll probably be Flores and Tejada on opening day since I’m sure Reynolds has options, but do you see him forcing himself into the starting SS discussion in camp?

Kiley McDaniel: Good enough to play there and the bat is okay, but both are kinda fringy for an everyday SS, so more of a very good utility guy. One mets official said he’s a Mark Loretta type. Exciting, I know.

Comment From Martin
Can Billy McKinney play CF in the majors?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, LF only. 55 runner so you could try him there I guess, but not for an extended amount of time, especially given his below avg arm

Comment From hanstone
As with all prospects, being a catcher (or targeted as such) makes me think Scwarber won’t be an everyday MLB regular for at least 4 years, which makes me want to pass on him for now… Your thoughts? Will he arrive sooner with regular ABs?

Kiley McDaniel: Pass on him? Smells like a fantasy question. I think CHC is just developing Schwarber to be a backup C that plays elsewhere like Gattis, to enhance his value, save an MLB roster spot, etc. If his bat is ready, they won’t be waiting b/c they’ve no committed to spending $$$ on the big league product, so it would be counter-productive. A rebuilding team may try that, tho.

Comment From RotoLando
You are in the minority in thinking Forrest Wall’s arm injury has not banished him to 2B permanently, and you are the only one I’ve read even mentioning CF. What is your line of thinking?

Kiley McDaniel: Didn’t know so many people out there had strong opinions on Forrest Wall. And I wrote that he’s a second baseman, so not sure what you mean. His arm got better during the spring and is probably a 45 now, so he can play CF, but I don’t think he will. My problem with the mainstream on Wall is that people discount him as lesser just b/c of his position, ignoring the above average bat, double digit HR power, 65 run tool, and hands/feet that could play a decent SS. arm surgery and sliding him to 2B suddenly made him a fat LF to some people based on how they talked about him pre-draft.

Comment From The Nights Watch
Nola in the bigs to start the season for the Phils?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably not. He faded down the stretch in 2014 (understandably given the innings), so they’d probably like to see a good month or two of LSU-level performance. Plus, PHI is kinda rebuilding now, so gotta think about service time championships now that HOU appears they may be moving past that…but TB is always fierce competition in penny-pinching.

Comment From Big Hurtin
Will Moncada sign this off-season? Is it basically just a waiting game right now?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep. Literally could happen any day now. OFAC doesn’t give a lot of hints, so no one knows how close they are to clearing him. I’d guess he’s signed before Opening Day, maybe well before.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Is Tito Polo more great name than prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: Scouts brought him up to me on their own this summer, so there’s some tools and he’ll likely get a mention on the PIT list, but back-end or others section likely

Comment From mtsw
Is the list of potential Duquette replacements that was leaked to the media (Towers, Colletti, Omar Minaya) explicitly designed to distress Orioles fans?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve been told (and it jives with my experience working in BAL) that if Duquette leaves, the new GM (though they never give the head guy that title) will be that type of guy, former GM, lots of experience, respected in industry, otherwise unexciting, etc. Completely unsurprising to hear those names.

Comment From Jca CPA ca
When are you posting the yanks prospects?

Kiley McDaniel: Very likely in the next 7 days. Shooting to do ATL, BAL and NYY next week.

Comment From RotoLando
How do you view Jack Flaherty RHP STL? Does he have a good enough change-up to move quickly through the minors? Ultimate upside of a #2?

Kiley McDaniel: Interesting b/c he has very limited miles on his arm and is projectable with feel and three pitches….so we don’t really know the ceiling yet. I’d say 3/4 is the upside, but could be higher once he gets out there.

Comment From Alex
Have you heard of any hidden gems in the 2014 international amateur signings?

Kiley McDaniel: I think the names teams have been excited about in instructs were the big names from 2014, but a number of lower bonus 2012 and 2013 guys have been popping up on lists. Victor Robles with WSH was a recent one.

Comment From Ryan
Other than age, James Hoyt doesn’t appear to have any obvious red flags. Is he an underrated piece of the Gattis trade?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve heard middle reliever and inventory piece. He would’ve been one of the better others mentioned on the ATL list. 60-65 FB, 50+ SL, good numbers so makes sense HOU was interested, but that stuff can be found in the others section of most of these lists.

Comment From Jca CPA ca
Who surprised you the most in the farms systems?

Kiley McDaniel: NYM and CIN were both better than I expected, both comfortably in my top 10 and likely end up there at the end.

Comment From The Commodore
Cistulli’s writing style. Interesting that? Or rather, said writer is of some interest insofar as one who gives whimsical-and-playful-dashes as a furtive wink to the entropic nature of man?

Kiley McDaniel: My head hurts

Comment From Ryan
How would you compare Jorge Mateo and Ozhaino Albies?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m very bullish on both. Both are shortstops that haven’t played full-season ball but everyone thinks they can stick, both are at least 70 runners and have show very good handling of the bat, with a little pop. Both 50+ FV guys.

Comment From Martin
I saw Ben Badler say Robertson, the top prospect in the Zobrist trade, would rank #36 for his top 100. Where would you have him at?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t lined it up yet, but looks like 90-140 range. I think he’ll hit enough to be an everyday guy of some sort, but the opinions on his defense vary wildly. OAK says above avg SS, my eyes in a short look at AFL and most other teams say solid 2B, just fill-in at SS. TB liking him makes sense and I’d suspect he has good defensive metrics.One of the teams I worked for had MILB defensive metrics that said Matt Carpenter could easily play 3B and probably 2B or even SS if needed (this is before he was in the big leagues) and our reports said no way he can play IF at all. So I know these metrics can be predictive…that said Robertson is in the second bucket for sure, referencing my earlier article about SS defense.

Comment From mtsw
Now that you’ve done the research for the Orioles system, what’s your feelings about Chance Sisco sticking at catcher? Opinions on his defense seem polarized.

Kiley McDaniel: My eyes in a short look say he can. BAL in general says he can. Most scouts say it’s too early to count him out, but that it’s still up for debate. I’d say it’s 60-80% saying yes.

Comment From lukas
What do you think about Rays farm system ? Top10 ? Top15 ? What tier ?

Kiley McDaniel: I have them 13th out of 15 right now, but they’re a good example of how I and I think most other scouts would rank systems. The Rays have the deepest list right now (35 deep, next closest is Cubs with 30), but have no one over a 50 FV. But if you start at 50 FV and work down, they’re the deepest at almost every step along the way.So, obviously the Cubs are better with all those high level guys. And once you get past the top 5-6 systems, it’s very tightly packed. So when I’m picking this system over the other, I list their guys in a grid by FV and I see, say the Nationals with Giolito at 65 and Lopez at 55, then comparable but worse depth throughout the rest of the list, with the Rays having a couple more guys at each step going down.So, would you rather have Giolito and Lopez or a 50 FV, four 45 FVs and six 40 FVs? That bulk adds up, but I’m pretty sure the Nats turn that deal down. So, lose a couple of those type of matchups and they end up near the bottom of the teams I’ve done and probaly end up 15–22 at the end of the process.

Comment From neal
what is the deal w/ Yoan Lopez? Why did he get all that money?

:

Kiley McDaniel: He’s 6th in that system for me, as the top 45 FV, behind Drury and four pitchers (Bradley, Shipley, Blair, Toussaint). Opinions vary, but he’s similar in value to 2014 draft righties Nick Howard and Touki Toussaint on the high end, or hard throwing relievers in the 40 or 45 FV groups on the low end (those scouts were the ones asking what’s the deal, like Jerry and Neal above).

Since I haven’t seen him and most scouts have only seen recent bullpens, there isn’t any real data or background to go on and, as I noted on twitter, no one has seen medicals yet since he’s from Cuba (PHI/Miguel Gonzalez had an injury issue at about this juncture of the process), I hedged a bit. That said, he could be a 50 FV early in 2015 if the optimistic reports end up being true once he throws more in games.

Comment From Victor
I have heard a lot of good things about Rafael Devers. What can you tell me about him? Do you think he will develop into an elite prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: Lucky for you I’ve written a lot about this and even edited a video together just for youhttp://www.fangraphs.com/st…http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Jeremy
Kiley. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, please continue podcasting with all the podcasts. Your informative conversations with Cistulli encourage me to also discover legit prospects. I haven’t been successful thus far.

Kiley McDaniel: Keep looking bro! Maybe try Tinder?

Comment From Ryan
Currently stuck in class but this chat is helping make it go by quicker!

Kiley McDaniel: More GIFs or long-winded answers?

Comment From Bomok
Who is the better prospect Wilmer Flores or Dilson Herrera?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll take Herrera, but it’s relatively close

Comment From Miguel
Any chance that Clint Frazier reaches his draft day hype?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s still early, so anything is possible. But show me a ginger with 80 bat speed and crazy hair and you just showed me one of my favorite players.

Comment From Ryan
Will Justin O’Conner hit enough to provide a little bit of pop and excellent defense to the Rays starting lineup? Some people are saying that he made a lot of progress last year. Do you see that sticking?

Kiley McDaniel: Made lots of progress. If he can continue doing what he did in 2014, he’ll be higher on next year’s list and be catching for the Rays soon. Question is the bat and how much of his power he can get to.http://www.fangraphs.com/st…http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Doug
To Guest: Chipotle’s sofritas is excellent.

Kiley McDaniel: Tried it once and no thanks I NEED REAL MEAT

Kiley McDaniel: Also, I would thank you to not take that out of context

Comment From Harry
Which low a prospect do you believe will make the most impact: Franchy Cordero, Amed Rosario,Rafael Devers, other of your choice?

Kiley McDaniel: Cordero is way behind the other two. I’ll lean Rosario but Devers is also really good.

Comment From RotoLando
Between Bobby Bradley and Braxton Davidson, who do you think becomes the better major leaguer? Opinions tend to say Davidson has better hit tool, Bradley moe power. Which is more important?

Kiley McDaniel: Both 60 power, both feel to hit, Davidson is trying RF but at some point probably ends up at 1B like Bradley. I’ll take Davidson but they’re reasonably close.

Comment From Proswagnoist
Law was pretty hard on the Astros in his writeup of the Gattis trade, but the one thing that stuck out to me was his grade on Foltynewicz’s curve. He graded it a 70! A SEVENTY! I’ve watched Folty pitch 20+ times throughout his minor league career, and I’d like to know why he wasn’t using this “70 curveball” of his because he sure as hell wouldn’t be failing to hit 9K/9 his entire minor league career while throwing upper 90s with a 70 breaking pitch. Is that the most generous grade you’ve seen on Folty’s breaking stuff?

Kiley McDaniel: I was told it’s a 60 and it plays down due to his command. Once you get to 60, the higher grades get thrown out much more often. 55 is usually 55 for everyone. If I put a 65 on something, that means some scout somewhere put an 80 on it. Oddly, the older scouts tend to be the ones throwing out the big grades and the younger ones tend to put everything 40-60, which I’ve been accused of doing too often.

Comment From Matt
What’s your take on the Mariner’s Patrick Kivlehan?

Kiley McDaniel: really interesting story. i’ve only seen him briefly and made one SEA call so far, so don’t want to speak too quickly, but he’ll likely have a long writeup on their list.

Comment From Rich
What expectations do you have for J.Taillon when he returns fully from TJ?

Kiley McDaniel: Well with TJ the thing is you can’t really have expectations. Some guys have complications and don’t pitch for 2 years, some guys come back all the way immediately and better. Follow me on twitter.com and I’ll let you know which it is.

Comment From Lou
The currently hyped prep players are Brendan Rodgers and Daz Cameron; do you like anyone more in the Senior or Junior classes?

Kiley McDaniel: Oh boy are you in for a treat because I wrote 50 gazillion words about this very thinghttp://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From RotoLando
Do you believe Monte Harrison can develop the hit tool and/or the power?

Kiley McDaniel: Power is already at least 50, question is the hit tool. Has looked solid in my quick looks, but real test is against good pitching, which will be coming soon. I’d guess yes but it’s really early.

Comment From Inigo Montoya
croutons or bacon bits on your salad?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think this question is about food and it makes me uncomfortable

Comment From BJ McKay
Looks like Rymer Liriano will spend most of the year in AAA. Do you think this will help his development and what does he have to do to become more than a 4th OF? Can he do it? % chance of him becoming a 50 and not a 45 as you rated him? Danke.

Kiley McDaniel: Big tools who knows. Him, Michael Taylor, Yorman Rodriguez, Domingo Santana….all similar guys that should be in AAA/MLB and have borderline all-star tools and hit tool questions. One of them will be a stud and I’ve got Taylor and Yorman from that group….so just hope to see improvement, but often the toolsy types aren’t challenged until MLB, so they need a patient org, which sometimes happens after a few waiver claims (Jose Bautista, Nelson Cruz, etc.)

Comment From Brian
How big of an upgrade is Rio Ruiz over Kubitza?

Kiley McDaniel: Real big. 50/55 FV for a pretty standard 45 FV, both reasonably close to MLB

Comment From Tom
Is Moncada good enough to justify a team like the Dodgers jumping in to this signing period late and essentially paying 60-80 million for one prospect? Or would they be better served passing on him in favor of aYankee style binge where they could add a dozen of the better IFA’s one of the next 2 years?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s gonna cost $80M either way, so doesn’t really matter if I think he’s “worth it” since multiple teams are interested at that level. And they’re interested at that level because, given the market conditions and his talent, he’s worth it.NYY spent $30M last year, so it would be a stretch to double that. And going back to my Giolito vs TB system answer earlier, most scouts would take the top guy over 10 lesser ones of varying talent anyway. You’re also giving up lots of roster spots with the bulk strategy as well.

Comment From RotoLando
You are very knowledgable about domestic prospects. Do you follow International prospects as closely, or do you wait until they sign here to start digging?

Kiley McDaniel: I follow it pretty darn closely!Early notes on 2015 July 2 guys w/reports and video: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…Note on a super elite 2016 guy w/report and video: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…Some of my 2014 July 2 coverage at my last employer: http://sbb.scout.com/story/… http://sbb.scout.com/story/…

I should be heading to the DR to see this year’s crop around Feb 1.

Comment From lukas
Jim Callis ?@jimcallisMLB 1m1 minute ago
Robertson, Adames, Brett is best top three I can think of. @ltw0303: Is there a system that has as many legit 2b/SS prospects as the @Rays ?

Kiley McDaniel: The definitely have a lot. Robertson, Rondon, Adames, Brett, Velazquez, Hager, Wong, Hak-Ju Lee, Unroe, Beckham all were on the list or just misses. If you adjust that to top 3 only, there may be another team in that mix, but TB has so many they don’t have roster spots for them all to start at their preferred level/position.

Comment From Chemy
Driving information about prospects July 2, 2015 Venezuelans?

Kiley McDaniel: Most of them can’t drive yet

Comment From Beaux
Mike Matuella has been talked to have ace upside. Are you concerned about his health (back) preventing him from achieving this upside? Would you rather have Funkhouser, Kirby, Ponce, Cody, or Buehler?

Kiley McDaniel: Answered at the draft link above that I’d rake him over those guys, but he also hasn’t thrown more than 20-30 innings at a time before injury since his velo spike. Could be 1/1 or late first round depending on this spring.

Comment From Biggy
What’s the plan for 2015 for Dylan Bundy? What’s his revised ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: Stuff was more 55-60 after TJ, but expectation is that will continue to improve the further away from TJ that he gets. He’ll be #1 on the list, but Harvey is basically tied with him. At Bundy’s best, I saw him 95-99 with an 80 cutter, 60-65 CB and 50-55 CH. It’s holy shit stuff.

Comment From mikecws91
Can Micah Johnson cut it at second? He seems much less interesting in the outfield.

Kiley McDaniel: Also needs to stay on the field, but he’s good enough to give him another year to figure out 2B. could be CF guy since 70 speed plays everywhere.

Comment From Pete
Is Greg Bird legit?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m so glad you asked that

Comment From mtsw
What skills would you look for to indicate a pitcher could successfully be converted to a submariner?

Kiley McDaniel: He sucks throwing overhand, elbow doesn’t blow out when he throws submarine

Comment From Ryan
Could Logan Verrett contribute to the Orioles bullpen this year?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, they really like him, 50 FB, 55 SL, 50+ CMD type middle reliever. They’re crazy in love with Jason Garcia, too. Hov almost dropped a verse about him for Duquette.

Comment From MASN Profiteer
Hey Kiley. I know your Dodgers write-up isn’t out yet and I tried Googling your name plus his and didn’t find anything, so I hope I’m not asking you to repeat yourself or divulge any secrets, but talk to me about Corey Seager. The offensive ceiling, the proximity to the majors, and how long he sticks at SS. I’m in a 12 team league where we keep 12 and I’m wondering if his upside makes him worth keeping over guys who are useful now like Smyly or Kemp. Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: I’m not the fantasy guy and I appreciate the google. He’s 55+ bat and power and at least 50 at 3B, with very unpopular opinions that exist that he can actually play SS (I don’t think he can). Could be 6 hit/power and he’s pretty close. In conclusion: HE REAL GOOD

Comment From Doug
Was Matt Barnes turnaround last season enough to consider him a potential 2 or 3 starter?

Kiley McDaniel: More 4/5 or setup, but most think he can start. no plus secondary is reason people don’t say 3

Comment From Cicero
The Rockies should have an exciting team at Asheville, Forest Wall is getting a lot of love but other teens like George, Padlo, Nunez and Carrizales have nice upside, who from that team do you like as an upside play.

Kiley McDaniel: Those are the big names of the ones that I’d guess will be there. Sam Howard and Wes Rogers should be there and are interesting. Terry McClure maybe as well.

Comment From Andy5
How much concern do scouts have regarding the heavy workloads some pitchers take on in college/high school? I’m thinking about a guy like Rodon here.

Kiley McDaniel: Very much but needs to have an injury for a team that loves the talent to stop loving the talent

Comment From Lukas
Badler said he’d have Dilson Herrera as a top 20 prospect. Is he crazy, or is the optimism justified?

Kiley McDaniel: Like I said, once you get beyond the top tier of guys, all these 50-55 FV guys for me can be picked as a “my guy” type guy and flown up the flag pole. Guys that have hit at high levels at young ages and premium positions is a good place to start.Also, the whole idea that “this guy isn’t a 20th overall prospects, he’s a 60th overall prospect this guys is stupid” is totally insane to me. That’s so close to being the same thing and those two numbers flip if one of those guys has a good three weeks in the bigs when the other guy has a bad three weeks. The internet is just the worst.The real problem here is how much pub Badler is getting in my chat. Let’s talk more about me, people.

Comment From Mike C
What FV would you place on Yoan Lopez?

Kiley McDaniel: High 45, could be 50 after 5-10 starts if early pro reports reveal the high end of the amateur reports were more accurate

Comment From Eminor3rd
Is Moncada LEGIT?

Kiley McDaniel: LOVING IT

Comment From MASN Profiteer
Oh you don’t answer fantasy questions…forgot. My bad. Nevermind.

Kiley McDaniel: Most of them are kinda coinflips and details I’m not given like your league, scoring system, team needs, etc. are what makes the decision. So, the questions don’t have enough details for me to feel confident about it….so I guess I only answer obvious fantasy questions. Hopefully I can train you to take my raw info and figure out what my answer would be if I knew all that stuff.

Kiley McDaniel: Teach a man to fish or teach a man to interpret a Forrest Wall scouting report…

Comment From Phillies113
What was your favorite team growing up?

Kiley McDaniel: Grew up in Tampa with default Braves and maybe Cubs as the teams on TV, then had the Rays, then got into working for teams and kinda don’t root for laundry so much as specific players or front office people. And also against some who angrify me, so don’t cross me bro.

Comment From Brett W
With half the teams yet to go in your series, any thoughts yet on who will be in your Top 5 systems?

Kiley McDaniel: Alright, I’ll tease what the top 5 is right now as the closer.

Kiley McDaniel: (subject to change)
1. Cubs
2. Twins
3. Red Sox
4. Mets
5. Rangers

Kiley McDaniel: Astros were in the top 5 (4th I believe) until the Gattis trade. They’re now 7th, Reds are 6th.