Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 11/7/14

Kiley McDaniel: You know it’s me because I don’t have a snappy intro or a branded name for my chat. It is sponsored by Stamps.com, though.

Comment From Basebull
Too early to ask about a 1.1 in the June draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Definitely not too early for me to write about it over a month ago. I still have the top 10-15 picks in the same order but will post some updates on the lower end of the list soon: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Bret
Hey Kiley – thanks for chatting! I read recently that the Jays are giving Dwight Smith Jr. some reps at second base. Think he could handle the position, and would his bat profile make him a legit prospect there?

Kiley McDaniel: Just saw him in the AFL but only saw him in the OF. He’s a good athlete that can run, so the tools are there too succeed but I haven’t seen/asked anyone about this. More important that Smith keeps making contact, but Pompey is ahead of him, so I can see the logic.

Comment From j
Saw on Twitter that your grade on Aaron Judge has gone progressively higher as the season has gone along. Possible 60 FV for you or not yet?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably 55, but might be 60. My guess on the day he was drafted as to what my grade would be this offseason was 45.

Comment From Guest
What does one purchase at “stamps.com”?

Kiley McDaniel: Mostly 4Loko

Comment From Derek
Kiley, in your opinion which AFL prospects have the best raw power from the Right Side/Left Side? I’ve been impressed by Renfroe’s ability in BP to use his lower half and drive the ball with authority.

Kiley McDaniel: RH Judge is 70 and LH Moya is 70. Renfroe is a 60 for me, but he’s really tapping into it in games, so the game power isn’t far behind Judge, who is still learning to do that.

Comment From Colo
Texas has mentioned trades to shore up their rosters. If you’re JD, which prospects do you make untouchable?

Kiley McDaniel: Everyone should be on the table. TEX doesn’t have a slam dunk, can’t miss guy along the lines of Profar a few years ago (which has obviously not gone as planned, either). Here’s that full list: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Kiley, have you seen Elias Diaz? He seems to have really increased his stock this year and has done well in the AFL too.

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, fringy raw power, some feel to hit and can really throw. Chance to be a low-end everyday guy probably a 45 FV once I make my PIT calls.

Comment From Logan
whats your best advice for someone trying to break into industry full time? I have worked two years as associate scout and a year as minor league video intern.

Kiley McDaniel: See as many games as possible, meet as many people as possible, take every meeting/interview and be nice to people.

Comment From the real brian
Which Dredd is Aaron Judge; the original or the remake?

Kiley McDaniel: I thought the remake was much better, so I’ll go with Karl Urban

Comment From Miguel
Why is there such fluctuation in projections leading up to the draft? Players will change between now and June, sure, but six months of data is a pretty small sample.

Kiley McDaniel: Fair question but imagine this scenario. You really like a prospect, saw him as a prep junior and at 5 events over the summer, you’re selling your other scouts on him and they’re in. Then in every game from Feb to June he looks like crap. You think he might be hurt and have some stuff going on at home, but that doesn’t totally explain it. You wanna put your job on the line and face ridicule from people like me by giving that kid $2 million, or do you want to give it to a guy who was good all along and very solid in the spring with much less risk? You could lose your job, have to sell your house and move your family to take a demotion if you’re wrong.

Comment From Cicero
You left Ryan Casteel out of the Rockies top 25 is there really just nothing there?

Kiley McDaniel: Uppercut swing, average or so power, probably a 1B fit. More like a AAA type guy with a chance for a cup of coffee.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
and so it begins, folks Kiley writes about a lot of this stuff, lol.

Kiley McDaniel: I’m turning over a new leaf!

Comment From Jeff Wiser
You sat by Carson for a full game. How did you do it?

Kiley McDaniel: Very carefully. And it was way more than one game.

Comment From Nick
Looking forward to the next phase of the Org Top Prospect lists. Will any of those be up next week?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, I’m shooting for 2 or 3 next week. I was on the road 17 of the last 18 days watching games and in most cases it was multiple games running all day, so I couldn’t really post any lists then. Now I’m at home with time to buckle down, so should be pumping these out now. CHW, CIN and PHI are the next three, probably in that order.

Comment From Guest
Montas looking, er, pitching-wise like a SP or still likely a RP?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably RP, but still has a chance to figure it out.

Comment From Philip Spector
Hear anything about padres with any big international free agents?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t heard details about target for most teams at this point. Should know a lot more in January on that front and also collecting more names.

Comment From george rr martin
how big of a concern is Tim Anderson’s plate discipline?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m not too concerned. I’d like to see him make some adjustments, but he barely played baseball as an amateur and the tools are absurd.

Comment From Greg
in 3 year is it too late for Betts to play 2B?

Kiley McDaniel: He can play almost any position on the field, Boston is just moving him around so he can play.

Comment From Jeff
Assuming that you had the chance to see Glendale in the AFL, any thoughts on Davies or Bridwell? Possible #5 and a nice power arm out of the ‘pen?

Kiley McDaniel: Really liked Davies. 60 CH, 88-91 with some wiggle and 50 to 50+ curveball with 55 command. Orioles guys were blowing him up to me and he matched expectations. #4 starter with a small chance for more if the command keeps playing. Pick your 6’1/skinny righty with feel that’s around league average and that’s what he could be.

Kiley McDaniel: Bridwell’s velo is up out of the pen, sitting 92-95 t96 with a 55 CH and CB that’s a 50 at times, but it’s high effort and command is just okay. His velo was 88-91 at times as a starter with soft stuff so I think that’s what he is going forward. The effort actually helps sell his changeup, so he’s a lot better in relief.

Comment From Enos Fro
name 5 players who stand out in the AFL.

Kiley McDaniel: Talked about this on Sirus/XM with Mike Ferrin on the AFL pregame show. Enrique Burgos with the D’Backs looks different than he did this year, now flashing a plus slider. Steven Moya has stupid power from the left side. Really like Davies. I’m in on former Oregon relievers Jimmie Sherfy and Jake Reed. Josh Bell looked good while I was there as well. Greg Bird and Aaron Judge were hitting, too.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Speaking of catchers, is Justin O’Conner good enough with the glove to be a starter in MLB?

Kiley McDaniel: Definitely good enough with the glove. 50+ defender with 70 arm and 55+ power, but bat is the issue.

Comment From GS1
Did you see any Royals guys in the AFL? Starling/Dozier/Mondesi/Almonte? Impressions?

Kiley McDaniel: Really liked Dozier, the other three were up and down/working on things.

Comment From The Big Dipper
Is Aaron Judge a star?

Kiley McDaniel: Slow down the hype train

Comment From Kenny
What do you make of Vincent Velasquez?

Kiley McDaniel: Every scout I talked to that saw him this year really liked him. 92-95 t96, 60 CH, 50+ CB, 50+ CMD. I saw him not get out of the 1st inning in the AFL, sitting 93-96 with little command/secondaries. Key example of when you need to ignore a bad look. #3 starter, but injury history means I need to see another healthy season before I’m all in.

Comment From Derek
Do you think Josh Bell is playing 1B as a way to get him to the MLB faster considering their currently OF/3B configuration? Where do you see him playing defensively long-term?

Kiley McDaniel: Big guy has put on some weight and isn’t great at 1B. He probably ends up there, but you can stick him in RF for now.

Comment From mr hokey
Also, on the 20-80 scale, how good is that new Run The Jewels album? Gotta give it a 90.

Kiley McDaniel: It goes all in on what it is. I kinda need to be in the mind for it, but it’s great when you are. Jeromy Burnitz comp? 60.

Comment From dude
Is Christian Walker the O’s first baseman next year? Are you a fan of his?

Kiley McDaniel: Platoon guy that can maybe be a 50 for a few years. Not a huge fan, but he’s a solid player.

Comment From JZ
Is Lindor going to hit in the bigs?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep

Comment From j
Is Jorge Mateo ready to start 2015 in Charleston or SI/Pulaski?

Kiley McDaniel: Low-A

Comment From Bill
Any insight into the Cubs’ two IFA signings Torres and Jimenez?

Kiley McDaniel: I wrote the crap out of the Cubs system here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From dude
Who are some of your favorite (and perhaps under the radar) prospects from last year’s draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Forrest Wall is my homeboy: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Jack
What are your thoughts on Greg Bird? Future 1b for the Yanks?

Kiley McDaniel: Trending up. 60 raw, feel to hit with feel for strike zone and at least avg defender. Scout gave me a healthy Nick Johnson comp two years ago and that still might be what he is.

Comment From Lagoon
Can you tell me what you mean by “be nice to people”?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t give them a reason to pick someone other than you, because there’s dozens of candidates for any job. People with fancy degrees, famous parents, played pro ball, etc. will get the benefit of the doubt, so be nice, people can stand you, do stuff for free and be enthusiastic. That’s how you beat those people with the advantage over you.

Comment From Cash
When’s your Yankee prospect report coming out?

Kiley McDaniel: After CIN, CHW, PHI, the next group is SD, MIA, TB and then I think the Yankees are after that…so a few weeks.

Comment From Guest
Hypothetically is there anything that would have prevented Bryce Harper from getting his GED,moving to the Dominican Republic for a year, and declaring himself an international free agent?

Kiley McDaniel: MLB so strongly didn’t want that to happen that they made it ridiculously hard to do it. I know of at least one draft prospect with Dominican heritage that tried to do this and he/his reps said it was basically impossible b/c MLB didn’t want it to happen.

Comment From J
Is Jon Gray no longer likely to end up in the bullpen? Was the stance on that changed because of his smooth development of a changeup?

Kiley McDaniel: I wrote about the Rockies here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Enos Fro
going to take a 20 min break in the middle of today’s chat?

Kiley McDaniel: No, but this is about to end!

Comment From Guest
I hear Archie Bradley is throwing a plus cutter from 88-91mph now in the AFL. Have you seen it?

Kiley McDaniel: may be a tick less than plus, but it’s new and it’s good.

Comment From J
Is it every baseball writer’s dream to work in a front office? The last couple years have been hard for us fans, losing the likes of Goldstein, Parks, etc.

Kiley McDaniel: At some level, the internet is the minor leagues and making the real decisions for a club is the big leagues. There’s a lot of sacrifices to be a part of the big leagues, but you can see the appeal. This internet stuff seems low stakes in that context. That said, I’m not looking to leave, so you don’t need to worry about me.

Comment From J
What is more fun/exciting for you: Draft season or prospect season?

Kiley McDaniel: Draft season is fun because it’s putting together a puzzle with incomplete information that I can help complete by going to games. Prospect season is fun because you have all the information and are trying to tie it all together. Fun for different reasons.

Comment From peep
what sort of ERA does a #3 starter put up?

Kiley McDaniel: Generally, a #4 is a 50 FV and his ERA is league average. I don’t know what that number is right now, but a #3 would be mid to lower 3’s or so.

Comment From Pierre
Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. clearly tied to the expansion Montreal Expos II, you can’t keep a conspiracy of that size under wraps McDaniel

Kiley McDaniel: Target is Pierre…SWARM, SWARM

Comment From Derek
Yoan Moncada… anything new on his status for the current International signing period?

Comment From Dan
Any idea where Moncada could fall on the top prospects list?

Kiley McDaniel: We’ll end with the player on most scouting exec’s lips right now. He’s gonna get a lot of money and we should know much more after his workout next week, since no one has seen him play in awhile. From what I’m told, he should be top 10 on a prospect list.

Kiley McDaniel: Alrighty, that’s all folks. Look for prospect lists coming very soon.