Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 4/14/15

Kiley McDaniel: I’m here, lets chat

Kiley McDaniel: just kidding just got called again. wait one minute!

Kiley McDaniel: ok now i’m really back

Comment From Tommy+B
Should cubs bring up Russell with Bryant next week? Do you think he is ready?

Kiley McDaniel: No idea what the plan is there, but if the only consideration was service time (it isn’t) then next week would work.

Comment From Bren
How surprised/concerned are you by the Mets skipping Molina, Rosario, and Urena over Low-A to High-A?

Kiley McDaniel: A little surprised but probably helps a bit that they’re going thru it together

Comment From Guest
What can you tell me about Nick Burdi’s brother , Zach Burdi?

Kiley McDaniel: regularly 94-98, but relief type, so probably not 1st rounder but kinda similar

Comment From season tickets
best batting prospect on the Os and when should we see him at camden yards

Kiley McDaniel: public service announcement for prospect lists and their general utility. here’s the O’s list (Reyes may have moved up a little, Kline has moved up a ton): http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

And the last list with links to all the lists: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From LarryA
Is quick wrists/bat speed something you can work on in the gym or batting cages, or is it mostly genetics?

Kiley McDaniel: kinda like speed, it’s mostly genetics

Comment From michael
christian arroyo has played well so far at a young age in an advanced league. thoughts on him as a hitter?

Kiley McDaniel: advanced bat, can play in the dirt, 15-18 homers if it works

Comment From Con
I would like your opinion on Urias ETA, etc. FG site says ETA 2016… Really intriguing situation for sure.

Kiley McDaniel: That ETA was written by me, more on that here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Kinda hard to guess since there’s service time considerations but mostly when does he fit what the MLB Dodgers are doing, which is hard to guess

Comment From Peacock
What if I told you that I am the guy that says what if I told you in the 30 for 30 series?

Kiley McDaniel: I can’t believe you’re telling me that

Comment From John
Tyler Beede’s year leading up to the draft wasn’t great and I know his selection wasn’t welcomed with 100% excitement. I read a couple encouraging reports about him recently though, does he have the ability to become a rotation anchor type? Were his draft day concerns valid?

Kiley McDaniel: Still working on the command and secondaries. I wrote the Giants list about a week ago, so updates from March adjustments are here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From DonMa
Eric Jagielo or Miguel Andujar as Yankees current top 3B prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: I wrote a lot about their system here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

I’d take Jagielo but he may be a 1B and Andujar has started fast, so gap could be closing

Comment From Curtis
SSS PANIC!!! Who do you get asked about the most early in this season?

Kiley McDaniel: EVERYONE

Comment From Philip
Fave you heard anything about the padres and july 2 guys? It seems to be quiet on that front almost like they might wait till 2016 to go over the pool, or am I wrong?

Kiley McDaniel: Writing up those notes now. Padres are intriguing team with some money that waited for Moncada, so weren’t able to commit early when other teams did to July 2 guys

Comment From Pale Hose
Kiley – I think we all want to know how scouting goes over with the ladies.

Comment From Chris Kusiolek
Any recent word on Justin Hooper? Worth a day trip down to the Bay Area?

Kiley McDaniel: Trending up again, had a very good outing and hit 97, so back in the 1st round now. Huge upside, but reliever look at times.

Comment From Eli
You wrote in Glasnow’s profile (http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…) that you don’t think he’ll have issues throwing strikes, despite his crazy high walk rates. Is it simply a case of him working on stuff, or something else?

Kiley McDaniel: Well not crazy high walk rates, just more than you’d like to see. It’s like a hitter that walks a lot also strikes out means something different than a guy that doesn’t walk a lot. You’re in deep counts and things happen. Glasnow gets in deep counts due to the K’s and teams hoping to wear him out since he’s so much better than an MILB reliever. He isn’t all over the place as people may suspect from size/numbers.

Comment From Chad
Do you see Pete O’Brien getting called up soon? Is he never going to catch again?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s not a long-term catcher but if he hits enough, I guess someone could put up with it, because he has an arm, it’s just the receiving/blocking that isn’t good

Comment From Ajay
Compare Mark Canha to a rapper.

Kiley McDaniel: Murphy Lee

Comment From Shawn
Is Carlos Rodon a fantasy difference maker this year?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, but depends whose fantasy

Comment From Dave (Boston)
Hey what are your thoughts on Refsnyder? He has made so many errors already? Yanks going to keep him at 2B?

Kiley McDaniel: It isn’t pretty. Heard some negative things since I wrote up their farm system, so could round down that D grade

Comment From Chad
Will Albert Almora rebound from last years disappointment? Is he still the future center fielder for the Cubs?

Kiley McDaniel: I say yes!

Comment From F U Jobu
Of J.Berrios, L.Severino and Alex Meyer, what do you predict as an ETA to the majors? and Impact?

Kiley McDaniel: Here’s a fun one that’s best answered by the top 200, but I will see Berrios in the coming weeks, so I will probably edit that opinion a bit then

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Chipper Jones
Is there a reason Mallex Smith is looked at as nothing more than a throw-in as part of the J. Upton deal? The minor league numbers are very similar to Billy Hamilton.

Kiley McDaniel: Well Hamilton is literally off the charts in speed and twitchiness and on the down side, strength. Mallex is a 70 or 80 runner that isn’t as twitchy or loose at the plate, but could be just as good of a player, he just has to prove it a little more at each level.

Comment From Dave
Thoughts on Elias Diaz, is just a backup at the major league level?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably, maybe more

Comment From Mark
Heard Barreto just hit a HR last night. His swing looks beautiful, love his polish at this age! Chances he’s up by late 2017? Also, o/u of .290 ave, 15 HR, and 30 SB for him at least peak? You think he sticks at SS or is he eventually going to be a CF? Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of questions! He’s good and maybe possibly as good as you’re saying, but guys usually don’t hit every part of their upside. http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Guest
thoughts on Ketel Marte?

Kiley McDaniel: Still get kind of varying reports for a guy in AAA but chance to be solid everyday speed type SS/2B

Comment From Chris B.
That was a little much for a snappy intro, no?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah you’re right too snappy my b

Comment From Chad
Will Hector Olivera be the starting 2nd baseman for the Dodgers next year? Or perhaps later this year?

Kiley McDaniel: 2016 is my guess 2B/3B/OF this year to find places to play

Comment From Sam
Matt Olson is off to a blistering start. Still think he doesn’t have a place as an everyday first baseman?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like someone is a little sore I questioned their favorite prospect. I said he might be. I called him a 45+ and 50 is everyday guy, so it’s equally likely he’s a 50 or a 45. I’ll need to talk to scouts to adjust that up since he went nuts last year and it didn’t move the scouting needle a ton for reasons I outlined in his report on the A’s list.

Comment From Derek Jeter
Will Aaron Judge make it to the majors this year?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t count on it

Comment From Rob P
So is there a specific place to start if one would like to become a scout? And thank you!

Kiley McDaniel: At the field. A lot. Over and over. Sources and scouting knowledge all flow from there. Gotta grind it, no easy way out.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Is the Jorge Mateo and Jose Reyes comp #legit??

Kiley McDaniel: More of a lazy hot take because he’s a fast Latin SS that plays for a NY team.

Comment From Chad
Will Michael Conforto(Mets) move quickly?

Kiley McDaniel: Definitely could

Comment From George Dub
Does the injury to Rua do anything to expedite Gallo?

Kiley McDaniel: Most teams don’t rush top prospects on MLB needs

Comment From Curtis
Which Minor League Teams will you be able to scout first? Who are some players you are looking forward to seeing there?

Kiley McDaniel: Saw Durham/Gwinnett a few times, but branching out now to CHattanooga/Mobile/Rome/Bham/Montgomery and probably Nashville

Comment From Jays Watcher
Is the 45 for Keury Mella due primarily to his distance from the majors or do you not think he has a very high ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: More on him here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

That’s a 5th starter grade, with a chance he’s less (8th inning reliever) or more (3rd/4th starter) as we learn more. Solid returns on his early start

Comment From Job
Bubba Starling has a 226 wRC+ so far. YOU WERE WRONG MCDANIEL!!!!!

Kiley McDaniel: Oh no

Comment From Alex
Am I allowed to overreact about Tyrell Jenkins getting lit up last week?

Kiley McDaniel: Hey do whatever you want man

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Can you tell a lot about a hitters hit and power tool from batting practice?

Kiley McDaniel: Often, yes. Not always replicated in games, so doesn’t always tell you something.

Comment From beans
Does any prospect at SS have more future value than Correa?

Kiley McDaniel: I gave a very slight edge to Russell, but if Correa is full healthy and performing, I prefer him http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From John
i forgot today was prospects… i wanted to complain about what is going on with brandon mccarthy, he is clearly throwing too many strikes

Kiley McDaniel: let it out, man

Comment From Hefty
How is the JUCO class looking? Any Brent Honeywell types that could go in the 3rd round?

Kiley McDaniel: Honeywell was basically unknown until the weeks before the draft, so I wouldn’t know yet. Lots of arms in the SE Jucos though. 6’9 lefty Mullins, power RHP Taylor and a projectable righty named Scooter!

Comment From Alfredo Garcia
Any update regarding the Dodgers and International signings?

Kiley McDaniel: Tomorrow, yes

Comment From Job
What has Bickford done since 2013 that’s moved him from what I recall being a helium, high velo guy to what seems like a more bona fide pre/mid-draft talk season (rather than late helium) guy?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know what this means, but his stock from junior year of HS until now has been a rollercoaster

Comment From Stark
What’s the farthest you could see Rodgers drop? If he goes lower than 4th would the world explode?

Kiley McDaniel: Won’t get out of top 3, still front runner for 1

Comment From Phil Swift Here
Is Joey Gallo the next Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, Chris Davis, or Dave Kingman?

Kiley McDaniel: I gave a range of Dunn to Branyan to McPherson here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

I wouldn’t have given a range if I knew the answer, but the ranking implies between Dunn and Branyan

Comment From Sean
Brendan Rodgers – higher ceiling. Kevin Newman – higher floor. Agree?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep

Comment From Doug
Who is the best SS in the Red Sox minors – assuming Moncada’s not a SS?

Kiley McDaniel: He isn’t. Marrero then Guerra then Dubon: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Any prospect in the minors right now has 40/40 potential?

Kiley McDaniel: Almost no one does either of those things separately anymore

Comment From Philip
Who is the player that has the most raw power not used in games? Jacob Gattwood or..?

Kiley McDaniel: Telvin Nash is an 80. Gatewood among prospects may be right

Comment From Chad
Will Manuel Margot ever break through the Red Sox logjam in the OF. Will he ever start for the Red Sox or is he trade bait?

Kiley McDaniel: This stuff always works out. Elite guys get to play.

Comment From Ross G
Seems like the Baltimore list is the same as it was

Kiley McDaniel: No I mean that would be the changes when I do them in a week or so. Updating draft and July 2 first, then circling back to updated/codify MILB lists

Comment From Jeff
Who would you rather have: Austin Meadows or Gregory Polanco? I’m very worried about Polanco he looks very overmatched.

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t be so worried so soon!

Comment From bss
Where does power come from if the batspeed isn’t there? I’m thinking of guys like Matt Olson, who has pretty subpar batspeed but still can muscle a ball out of a park.

Kiley McDaniel: In short, muscles.

Comment From Alex
Do you think you tend to be a bit more conservative on ETA compared to other prospect guys? I’ve noticed you’re usually a year later than a lot of guys.

Kiley McDaniel: I mean it more for able to contribute, not the day he gets called up. Also these are guesses anyway, so I guess more people would like your ETA if you just say tomorrow about their team’s guys

Comment From mtsw
Besides velocity recovering, what will be the signs in AA that Dylan Bundy is on track to be in the major league rotation next season?

Kiley McDaniel: Good numbers at AA and/or AAA and velo back and you’re fine. Out of options next year so this could be a bit of a quandry if the velo doesn’t return

Comment From Vampire Weekend at Bernies
Sometimes we see players succeed all through the minors until they get to AAA. What’s so different between AA and AAA that would result in this?

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of big league tools/abilities hanging around and more command type skills rather than tools, so can expose undisciplined guys

Comment From Eli
Any chatter that Aiken may fall to the Jays a la Hoffman?

Kiley McDaniel: Aiken will be talked about on Friday’s draft rankings. He’s a super duper crazy unknown. The assumption that he’s Fedde or Hoffman health-wise is not what teams are assuming.

Comment From curious in calcutta
Knowing Brian Hulick: great pleasure or greatest pleasure?

Kiley McDaniel: Secret answer C: the no-est of no-no

Comment From Guest
Can you do an article of guys going to the Cape this summer and who to keep an eye on now that rosters are out?

Kiley McDaniel: I could, but Frankie Piliere has this thing covered. If you want to know the guys to look out for and who is on what roster, tweet at him. Some of the top guys will be lost to Team USA and injuries and sitting out, so still guesswork now as to who shows up. The team sites have rosters posted if you want to see who is currently on there and I’ll have 2016/2017 rankings up next week.

Comment From Joe
Where do you expect Moncada to end the year? Surely the Red Sox have to be a little aggressive promoting him from the low minors given his paycheck, right?

Kiley McDaniel: The paycheck means they have to do it right, so that will dictate the pace. I would guess all year at Low-A, late season taste of High-A definitely possible.

Comment From jv
Thoughts on Kyle Crick and Matt Wisler?

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of thoughts on Crick here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

I’m leaning reliever on him but he still has some time

Lots on Wisler here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

I saw his first start with ATL a few days ago and arm speed was down a bit (89-92 t94 rather than 91-95 t96, but it’s still early in the season), but the stuff was solid 3rd/4th starter with good feel and I know he’s shown #2 starter stuff at times, so I’d give him a few more weeks to get going and check back in.

Comment From jda
Speaking of Kline, sitting 94mph, touched 97 a few times, can’t tell if the slider is really better but it sure seems to be fooling hitters more now. If the velocity holds steady for all of April and he keeps dominating AA, what FV/risk would you comfortably give him on May 1?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a 45+ FV right now (haven’t edited the lists, but that’s what he will be when I do), which is 143-200 overall. Could be 50 in another month.

Comment From Gen
Can chance sisco stick at catcher? He’s been pretty bad defensively so far this year

Kiley McDaniel: Concerns, but everything is there to stick, so scouts aren’t worried yet long-term.

Comment From Philip
From a pure stuff standpoint where does Chris Anderson stand? Like if he had average command/control and a ok delivery (which he obviously doesn’t have). Mid rotation? Do you think he can turn it around or is he just a future pen piece

Kiley McDaniel: I think you guys can find the links to the team lists now, but Anderson shows two 60 pitches (FB/SL), so it’s #3 SP if that all comes together.

Comment From Oren
I know Miguel Castro was likely to end up in the bullpen anyways, but what about Roberto Osuna? Are the Jays ending his chances of becoming an effective starter by using him in the bullpen before he even started a game in the high minors?

Kiley McDaniel: Neither were likely, both were starters in A-Ball with the tools to start. Due to TJ and a little less command, Osuna was more likely to be a reliever but it was still early for both.

Comment From Hunter
Saw the video you uploaded of Stetson Woods and it struck me that it looked very similar to Kopech’s delivery with the cocked wrist and the big shoulder turn. Can you explain to me why two brothers were reared in different states by different families?

Kiley McDaniel: Great sitcom idea! I’m thinking like Too Many Cooks but like Two Long Levers or something like that. Don’t want to spoil the broth(er).

Kiley McDaniel: And if you’re scoring at home, that’s a 10/10 joke for off the top of my head.

Comment From John
peter obrien couldnt even throw it back to the pitcher this spring… tell me about his arm again

Kiley McDaniel: It’s plus when he doesn’t have crippling fear as a factor….so I meant he isn’t the guy that will get run on all day, he’ll just drop pitches and not frame or block that well.

Comment From Philip
I know you can’t scout a minors line, but to me it’s interesting how high the scouting community was/is on Aaron Sanchez while he had awful BB/K rates. Where do you stand on Sanchez?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m on the low end, I see reliever, but he’s young enough that he could still make some changes.

Comment From h80motox
Is Andrew Benintendi a sleeper pick in this years draft? Kid’s tearing it up.

Kiley McDaniel: YES he will be high on the draft list. RS soph under the radar.

Comment From Ross G
Branden Kline: What’s his new profile? What are you hearing from scouts?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve tweeted like 15 times about him, so that may be the best place to get full background. 94-98, SL and CH both cons above avg now, SL is better of the two. Used to be 89-93 with fringy to average stuff, no cons and little command due to UVA delivery mess that he’s moved past now, finally.

Comment From Shawn
Any idea what the Red Sox are gonna do at #7? I thought in a previous chat you mentioned something about what they might do in the draft. Think they could take Aiken?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably not. All will be revealed Friday.

Comment From Hunter
With Kline picking up lots of velocity lately, that’s now two former Red Sox picks out of high school whose velocities spiked significantly. Will the same happen with Trey Ball in 2019?

Kiley McDaniel: I can’t tell the future, but he’s tall so maybe

Comment From Nomar Mazara: future impact player?
Thoughts on Kendrick Lamar’s new album?

Kiley McDaniel: Still only listened through once and it wasn’t an easy one to love first way through. Liked a few tracks and need to listen to it again but I currently am afflicted with list fever

Kiley McDaniel: and no, there’s no presciption

Comment From Chad
To clarify on Pete O’Brien. Do you think he can be a major league starter as an OF?

Kiley McDaniel: 1B/DH. Probably platoon guy, but 65 raw power, so might hit enough to be everyday.

Comment From antsy in Greenville, SC
When is Moncada coming here? OMG! Prospects!

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know that either but probably within weeks

Comment From mtsw
It’s frequently reported that Orioles have an organization-wide philosophy that encourages pitchers to be quick to the plate. Is this only about preventing steals or is there something more to it?

Kiley McDaniel: Preventing SB is what I heard.

Comment From Ajay
Any pitchers in this year’s draft that could contribute to a bullpen in September?

Kiley McDaniel: TCU’s Riley Ferrell maybe, but he has 3 pitches so team that takes him may try to start him. TCU wanted to do that and bailed, though, so I wouldn’t count on it working. Same on Illinois’ Tyler Jay but he’s never started, so someone will try to do that.

Comment From bbghghbb
how do guys like carter capps go through the minor leagues without someone being like “uhh hey guy what are you doing”

Kiley McDaniel: I thought he just started doing that? I saw him in the minors and didn’t notice that, but it was a really quick look.

Comment From Spencer
The first round of this year’s draft looks particularly weak this year. If you’re the Phillies drafting at 10, who’s realistically left to feel good about taking that high?

Kiley McDaniel: Beyond the top 3, there is very little consensus. So if I felt good about a guy, odds are PHI doesn’t.

Comment From guest
Do you see Giolito, Lopez and Fedde as top end starters? Also, is Caleb Ramsey a potential MLB outfielder?

Kiley McDaniel: All three of those guys could be 1/2 starters, but odds are no more than 1 actually is.

Comment From Philip
PLEASE TELL ME THE FRANCHY CORDERO DREAM ISN’T DEAD

Comment From Philip
A PLAYER NAMED FRANCHY MUST SUCCEED

Comment From ballgame
I don’t quite understand the ratings (45/50, etc). Why does the scale move for different players. For example, Fastballs for some guys are 50/60 or 70/80. Why does the denominator move?

Kiley McDaniel: It isn’t a math problem. It’s present/future grades, so it’s usually just a gap of 5-10 points except for game power and hit tools in the low minors, since those guys would suck right now in the big leagues.

Comment From Big Easy
What os Shane Greene’s FV?

Kiley McDaniel: 55: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Kris
Sugar Ray Marimon up for Braves…65+ name?

Kiley McDaniel: Great name and saw him a few days ago. 90-92, above avg breaker and changeup, long levers, kinda interesting

Comment From Idk
Is Marcos Molina a potential front line starter?

Kiley McDaniel: If he keeps improving at this rate

Kiley McDaniel: More #3 if I had to guess

Kiley McDaniel: The chat software is now moving really slow for me and I have a lunch date with my nephew at Shake Shack, so you guys seem really boring now. July 2 and Draft updates coming this week!