Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 5/26/15

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll come back to start the chat in 22 minutes but you can leave some questions here ahead of time

Comment From Whitman
What sort of scouting grades would you put on high school Kiley McDaniel?

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of 20s

Comment From George is Curious
What were your thoughts on Preston Tucker prior to him being called up? Think he has the skills to stick in the majors going forward?

Kiley McDaniel: All my thoughts are here (or linked to here) and that goes for almost all prospects, by the way: http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

Comment From Anon
Do you see the Jays signing any other July 2 guys aside from Vlad?

Kiley McDaniel: Not any significant ones, but heard Vlad’s bonus may be 3.5M, which would mean TOR could be doing what MIL did last year with Gilbert Lara: just sign one huge guy and basically no one else, just barely stay under the cap.

Comment From Craig Kimbrel
I know you’re a prospect guy….but what’s wrong with me?

Kiley McDaniel: If I break news that you are traded, your xFIP will rise all the way to 2.31! Fluky home run rate and other chaining events. As long as he doesn’t let the bad run affect his confidence, he’ll be fine.

Comment From Charles
Most scouts aren’t high on Eeic Jagielo. Does his play so far and anything you’ve seen from him suggest a bright future or is he still just beating up young competition?

Kiley McDaniel: Everyone I talked to has him in the Yankees top 10. He was a first round pick a couple years ago. He has plus power from the left side and might be able to play third. He’s generally hit everywhere he’s been. Scouts are high on him.

Comment From Fredo at Tahoe
Any inkling what type of player the new Dodgers administration may go after? In a similar vein, any International rumblings to add to what you have previously published?

Kiley McDaniel: At this point, the best guess for LA in the draft is injured dudes, since they can accept that risk with all these other prospects entering the system and Seager/Pederson/Urias at the upper levels. I’ve reported them with a couple July 2 types and Yadier Alvarez. Pretty much every Cuban is their to lose and they’ll make a run at Lucius Fox, too.

Comment From Bernie Brewer
What do you make of a guy like Monte Harrison, who is raw and has talent, but is in a tough level and swing/missing a ton?

Kiley McDaniel: I wrote about him a lot here http://www.fangraphs.com/st… and I’m a little worried about the Low-A performance this year, but he was a dual sport guy with a scholly to play WR at Nebraska that didn’t face great competition in Missouri, so not being great at 19 at a level most 19 year olds never play in isn’t that worrying in the scheme of things.

Comment From GR51
If you look at the Yankees three A ball SS prospects Mateo, Wade & Avelino (who isn’t playing much short now) how would you rank them and which project to be MLB everyday shortstops?

Kiley McDaniel: You’re forgetting Angel Aguilar, who is basically tied with Wade for 2nd in that group for me. More on those guys here http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From matt
Who are some of your favorite 2nd round type prospects in the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Among the HS P’s, I like Brady Singer and Dakota Chalmers. Demi Orimoloye and Jalen Miller among HS bats.

Comment From Sam
What are some Florida JUCO names to look out for in the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Chipola is loaded: Mac Marshall and Isiah Gilliam will go top 3 rounds. Jeff Harding sits 93-96 and Reese Cooley isn’t bad. Other P’s: Dustin Hersey, Taylor Cockrell, Chase Ingram. Other Bats: Brad Zunica, Christian Williams, Brenden Overton, Todd Isaacs. I’ve been adding to the list here, so there’s way over 300 name for the 2015 draft now, including all the guys above: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Kiley McDaniel: Updated rankings coming soon and mock will definitely be this week

Comment From DKNJ
Who do you believe in more Eric Jagielo or Richie Shaffer? Does either have a chance at a Todd Frazier type ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: Jagielo way over Shaffer. Maybe on Jagielo/Frazier

Comment From GoBlue
What do you think about Jacob Cronenworth?

Kiley McDaniel: Smallish guy with above average stuff, probably reliever, not a bad hitter either

Comment From Nate
What kind of ceiling does Jose DeLeon have?

Kiley McDaniel: Keeps performing like this and he could be a 55 FV (roughly 30-75 range in top 100), but we’re still talking about like 10 starts.

Comment From 2014 Natty Champs
Dansby Swanson hit four home runs at the SEC Baseball Tournament. I know they are playing with a new ball at the college level this year, but that’s still awfully impressive given the cavernous size of that park, right?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes. He’s my new top prospect for the draft after Rodgers almost went wire to wire.

Comment From Matt
The Padres suck and have no farm system, guess things don’t usually change

Kiley McDaniel: Whoa there big guy, maybe stop talking and sit a few plays out

Comment From Kevin
Austin Meadows continues to blossom at the High-A level for the Pirates. Could you see him in your top 10-15 by seasons end?

Kiley McDaniel: Possible

Comment From Nick
Can we put off this chat until we learn the minor league guys in the Uribe-Callaspo trade?

Kiley McDaniel: WHERE WERE YOU WHEN YOU HEARD

Comment From marc
If Happ falls to the pirates do they pull the trigger?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes but that’s not happening. Lots of new nuggets in this week’s forthcoming mock.

Comment From Mad fredrik
What would the framework of an international draft look like?

Kiley McDaniel: Really stupid

Comment From Ben
You said this about Nick Williams in your top 200: “if he can make some adjustments to his offensive approach in 2015, he could shoot up this list.” Safe to say he’s made “some adjustments” at this point? Is he a top 100 guys at this point?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t asked any scouts about him yet, but starting to look that way

Comment From Blue Jays
Hey Kiley – Do you think the Jays may have an outfield of Pompey Smith Jr and Alford in the future?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s a rule that when a fan makes even part of a projected lineup more than 2 years in advance, that ensures it will never happen

Comment From Hankeypankey
Do you see jose de Leon as a #2?

Kiley McDaniel: 3 or 4 depending on how he looks the rest of the year.

Comment From Eric Weinstein
Draft strategy/manipulation question for the Cubs: I’d say it’s likely that the Cubs won’t have a first round pick in 2016. They’re unlikely to have a top 10 protected pick, and they’re in acquisition mode and are pretty likely to sign a guy with a draft pick attached to him. And I think it’s very possible that it’s the same situation with their 2017 draft.

So what’s to stop the Cubs from ignoring slot with what may be their last high draft pick for a number of years, and telling Dillon Tate, for example, that there’s $10 million in it for him if he can somehow scare teams 1-8 away?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s a pretty bonkers conspiracy theory but there’s a number of rumors floating around of guys trying to slide down the board for more money from another team. A couple directors have told me they all see this as moot, because if they want the guy, they’re going to make him turn down their $2 million (or whatever it is) slot money. It gets real when the money is on the table.

Comment From Formerly the Smasher
Anthony Alford is leading all affiliated minor leaguers in BB% and OBP right now. Is this just a great start or is some of this sustainable?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably won’t keep doing THAT well, but I’m the high guy on Alford. I put him 9th in a really deep org, one spot behind Devon Travis and Alford had barely played any pro ball at all. Don’t have to convince me. Scouts were raving in instructs http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Benny
Initial thoughts on Jeff Hoffman’s Debut last week? As he gets ready for his second start tonight I believe?

Kiley McDaniel: One of our new writers will be writing up this start for tomorrow and I just tweeted out his video of the start: https://t.co/fYqYoaWI9U

Comment From Ben
Chances either Tate or Rodgers get past Colorado at #3?

Kiley McDaniel: Tate will get past that pick. Rodgers almost certainly will not.

Comment From xavier
Gleyber Torres is tearing up the MWL. How much power and speed do you see in his offensive profile?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m the high guy on Gleyber. I thought he was the best guy in his July 2 class before they signed (to the ridicule of some scouts) but it’s mostly just 50’s and 55’s. Advanced feel for the game. http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

Comment From Crystal453
Who is the first team who could jump on Nikorak? Which teams are most likely landing spots for him?

Kiley McDaniel: In play from about 15-25, but HS righties are like running backs in the NFL Draft. If any class of player scares people off and is most likely to slide on draft day, it’s them. There’s also a glut of HS righties from 25-50.

Comment From Joe in DC
As a sad, displaced Brewers fan I was very excited about your description of Gilbert Lara. What is he doing now? I can’t find any stats for him. Is he hurt? Not good enough for A ball yet? Please don’t report anything depressing.

Kiley McDaniel: You people are really sad sometimes. He’s in extended because they didn’t want to see a 17 year old put up numbers in Low-A like Monte Harrison and lose his confidence. I bet Lara goes nuts this summer in Rookie ball.

Comment From BCIB
Given that you once worked for the Orioles, I am sure you have a lot of good contacts there, still. Are there any specific names you’ve heard attached to them with the 25th and 36th picks next week?

Kiley McDaniel: Teams around 15-20 have no idea who gets to them and don’t have set target lists.

Comment From John
Any reports on Rafael Devers’ 3B defense at Greenville this year? Do you think he eventually moves to a corner outfield spot?

Kiley McDaniel: Just saw him last weekend. Scout comped him to Panda in every sense of the word. Will need to monitor body, but the hands and arm are fine and the first step isn’t bad.

Comment From ethan
How worried are you by Alex Jackson’s start to the season? I saw some scouts put a 45 on his hit tool, do you agree?

Kiley McDaniel: He had a shoulder injury. Not worried.

Comment From Justin F
How much work do teams do on the spot during the early parts of the draft? I’d have to imagine (at least) the top 10 teams have their big boards mapped to the point that they could all get all 10 picks in within a minute if that’s what the rules required. Are these early picks a result of who’s the top player available on their big board, or are they legitimately using these last couple of minutes to analyze?

Kiley McDaniel: For those picks, it’s just top guy on the board. They run those scenarios for days to work out the order. There’s some last minute talks if something weird happens in front of them, but not enough time to really change course that late.

Comment From Guest
I’m looking to start a career in baseball, probably somewhere in the front office (I know, really vague), what degree would you recommend going for? I went into college thinking Sports Management, but I don’t know if that is as well suited for someone looking for a job in baseball compared to other degrees. What are your thoughts on that?

Kiley McDaniel: Sports management undergrad degree will get you 0 advantages. Advance degree maybe if it helps you meet some people, but the skills won’t really translate and you’re giving away a year or two as well. I’d get a business/stats type degree and go to a bunch of games so you can offer scouting/admin/analytics type skills and improve your chances. Plus business is useful for real jobs, too.

Comment From Carson+Kiley=
What are your thoughts on Miami junior, David Thompson? Where does he go in the draft and what do you see him doing in pro baseball?

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe late 2nd, probably 3rd-4th. Chance to be a platoon corner utility guy with outside shot to turn into low end everyday guy in LF.

Comment From Alex
Are you concerned about Braden Shipley’s recent horrible stretch of starts?

Kiley McDaniel: Not really. Saw him a few weeks back and everything was as advertised but he didn’t have to CH that day. I’ll go see him again in a couple weeks. If the CH still isn’t there, that would explain it.

Comment From Rico Brogna
I only have time to see one of Reynaldo and Giolito when they come to town. Which should I chose for overall enjoyment if I’ve never seen either?

Kiley McDaniel: Giolito

Comment From guest
Let’s say a crosschecker is totally sold on a kid and a lot of time has been invested in scouting him, only to be told by a higher up that the organization decided to go in a different direction on a pick. Does this kind of thing ever get personal or heated and blow up at all, or are most people pretty good at letting this kind of thing go and just chalk it up to how the business works?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes. Usually one occurrence doesn’t end with someone quitting, but if it happens a couple years in a row, it’s a small world and that guy will go find a better place to work, probably with the same title.

Comment From Cole
What happened to Anthony Molina For the 2016 draft saw a lot about him and now has almost vanished from rankings. Is this an example of a guy who was so highly talked about that he lost the buzz around his name?

Kiley McDaniel: It isn’t that random, like people got bored with him or something. Massive off the field questions and the on the field performance has tailed off the last year or so. Kicked off the team this year and had already been to a bunch of schools in a short amount of time.

Comment From spookie
Kiley – did you make it to Greenville? I know everyone’s talking about Moncada but I’m all jazzed up about Devers and Kopech.

Kiley McDaniel: Devers is really good. 60 hit and power by the end of the year is possible. Kopech was 94-97 with 55 CB, but didn’t really have a CH, so still some reliever concerns.

Comment From Formerly the Smasher
What of Hoffmans skills grade out as plus? Is there a 70/80 in there?

Kiley McDaniel: Might be two http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Not Ruben Amaro but I wish I was
Truth or crap: a smart organization with money to spend on a big rebuild would be well advised to not go over the July 2 limits this year, but wait until 2016, when Bos, NYY, LAD, Cubs, etc. will all be locked out, and they’ll have a clearer path to signing Maitan and others.

Kiley McDaniel: Little bit of both

Comment From Derek
Coming into the season, Orlando Arcia had a 50 future hit tool. Is he just now starting to reach that potential or is he raising the ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: has the tools/approach to be a 60, so it slowly creeps up as he keeps performing at higher levels. Probably 55 now.

Comment From Sean S
Kiley, Hearing anything on a team biting on Justin Hooper’s $4M asking price, or is he headed to UCLA?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like school

Comment From joe
will phil ervin for the reds recoup some of the praise he had when drafted?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep. Scout told me he dropped an NP on Ervin last year so this is some real progress.

Comment From Pax
Kyle Schwarber is up on __________? And at what position?

Kiley McDaniel: a tuesday

Comment From Jared
When should we expect the next mock draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Shooting for Thursday

Comment From Proswagonist
Are Rodgers and Tucker the two best bets for plus hit and power in this draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes

Comment From Justin F
Well then Kopech sounds like Fulmer?

Kiley McDaniel: Fulmer has a 55 CH, he just doesn’t have to use it much

Comment From mtsw
Is there a high rate of churn out of baseball jobs? What percentage of people currently working as scouts and in the front office would you estimate are out of the industry within 10 years? Seems like if you’re not a superstar destined to move up to one of the few great jobs it’s a tough place to hold a sustainable career, but also that skills acquired doing baseball stuff wouldn’t translate well to other fields so I could see it either way.

Kiley McDaniel: Among young Ivy League kids with options, maybe a bit of this, but lots of guys get into the industry, don’t get promoted like they’d hope, but there’ already kinda pot committed, so they hang around.

Comment From Roger
If the Braves were to play games to hide interest a player like they did with Heyward in 2007, who would it be? I have a conspiracy theory that they’re using Stephenson as a smokescreen.

Kiley McDaniel: You should find some more interesting conspiracy theories. Email with that Cubs/Dillon Tate for $10M guy from the beginning of the chat

Comment From Proswagonist
Best consistent pop time you’re aware of? Can be a former player.

Kiley McDaniel: Pudge was in the 1.7s pretty regularly

Comment From Justin F
Do you eat or spit the shells of sunflower seeds?

Kiley McDaniel: Spit. I thought only animals ate them?

Comment From Stefan
Do you think Tyler Jay could really go 1-1?

Kiley McDaniel: No.

Comment From Ehrlich
Any buzz about teams intentionally drafting a player they won’t be able to reach a deal with to get a pick in next year’s presumably better draft?

Kiley McDaniel: No, but a couple teams have said they may take a harder line stance on players that change their number after they get drafted, with the deeper 2016 crop in mind.

Comment From Colby
Do you ever have any teams getting upset at you for publishing their draft strategies or is it known in the industry what way teams are leaning already?

Kiley McDaniel: Well they usually don’t mind it because some buzz comes from a team having 4 guys at a game, but then they decided they didn’t like the player, but people still tie that team to the player, so it helps obscure their strategy. If I totally nailed some teams strategy, I’m sure they aren’t happy, but they also aren’t telling me pre-draft that I have them pegged and I would never assume that.

Comment From Todd
Hearing/seeing anything about the second tier guys on the Chattanooga team like Polanco, Kepler, Walker, Harrison, Duffy before he was promoted?

Kiley McDaniel: Saw them all but Duffey. Hitters looked about the same as last year. Scout told me Duffey ran it up to 94 or 95 but was #5 or spot starter type since the secondary/command wasn’t great.

Comment From The Bronx Empire
NUGGETS!

Comment From Proswagonist
Do teams like at their draft scouting reports 4-5 years down the line try to grade their scouts?

Kiley McDaniel: Not as often as the should, mainly because the scouts have either been fired, extended or promoted by 4-5 years later, so it doesn’t really change much. Should be more studying the past in scouting, if you ask me.

Comment From Ehrlich
Does Aaron Blair have #2/3 upside or is he more of a 4?

Kiley McDaniel: 3 or 4

Comment From Ehrlich
An international draft would be a very obvious way of manipulating the market by the owners. How do people let them get away this stuff?

Kiley McDaniel: Well they technically own MLB and they employ the commissioner, so they are the people letting themselves get away with it. How embarrassing for these rich guys!

Kiley McDaniel: Alright time for more draft calls. See you people next week