Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 5/5/15

Kiley McDaniel: I’m here. Let’s start.

Comment From Tim
How can the Braves get Josh Bell from the Pirates?

Kiley McDaniel: The Braves have 8 prospects that I deem to have the same or more trade value than Bell, so there’s 8 of the ways they could do it.

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Jeff Gross
With Bryant/Russell graduated to the majors, where would the Cubs farm system rank now? Have the performance of enough guys like Vogelbach and Schwarber ticked up/maintained more grades overall than have disappointed (e.g., Johnson) to keep the Cubs in the top 5 overall?

Kiley McDaniel: More on this in the coming weeks

Comment From Peezus
How high are you on Tyler Glasnow and when do you see him coming up?

Kiley McDaniel: Good, we got to this early.

If you have questions about what I generally think about a top prospect, check out the top 200 (http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…), their player page (Glasnow: http://www.fangraphs.com/st…) and their org’s prospect list (Pirates: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…)

I haven’t heard anything materially different than from this off-season about Glasnow, so all that stuff still stands.

Comment From Tim
Is Brad Zimmer anything more than a solid average regular in the future?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s my expectation, but guys with physical projection that haven’t failed with the bat before have a way of beating expectations, so there’s a chance for more.

Comment From Bruce
My closest pro park of any kind is in the NY-Penn league. Anyone worth going to see this year?

Kiley McDaniel: There will be, but the rosters get announced in mid-June, so I can’t really help yet.

Comment From Alex
Can you get Carlos Correa called up for us? Thanks.

Kiley McDaniel: Luhnow was at the same game as me this week, but we didn’t talk about that sorry

Comment From @leonhard14
Got a chance to see Jeferson Mejia this weekend and it wasn’t pretty. Move to starter has his fastball down around 90-92 coupled with command issues. Worried about his long term outlook as a starter?

Kiley McDaniel: It was always a bit of a long shot that a kid that big could make starting work and if he will, it won’t happen quickly.

Comment From Oren
Devon Travis keeps hitting, and his defense has looked at alright too. He’s not the rangiest player, but he seems to have good instincts and hands. Do you think he’s just playing way, way over his head, or is it fair to up the projection for him? (Obvioulsy he’s not going to hit like THIS forever).

Kiley McDaniel: Could be a 6 bat (.280 or so) with about 10-15 homers…so yeah he’s hitting a bit over what scouts’ had projected so far

Comment From Mikel
How long until Brent Honeywell gets brought up a level? He doesn’t have much else to prove in A ball

Kiley McDaniel: And here’s your weekly reminders to 1) not scout a stat line, these are humans, not robots and that 2) the stats from a handful of starts doesn’t make for conclusive proof of anything 3) unless scouting reports indicate that something has changed from the report that dictated he be sent to that league in the first place

Comment From Nick
Who offers highest? upside; Carson Fulmer, Kyle Funkhouser, or Walker Buehler??

Kiley McDaniel: Fulmer just barely has the most fastball, I’ll give Funkhouser a slight edge on breaking ball, Fulmer has the most changeup, I’ll give Buehler the edge on command, Funkhouser the edge on size/plane and Fulmer the edge on deception

Kiley McDaniel: So, either Fulmer or Funkhouser depending on which one you think has more command/chance to start. Most people would lean Funkhouser but it’s a tossup for me.

Comment From ship
What is the earliest we could reasonably see Correa. Correa and/or C. Seager

Kiley McDaniel: And now your weekly reminder that I don’t know when people will get called up. They could both get called up today, really. The Astros have a need at SS and the Dodgers are full with IF but Seager is probably good enough to start now. So, that means both teams are deciding based on service time and development of the player. If it’s only service time, then you’ll be waiting until the summer (that’s my guess for Correa) and if it’s only need/development, then you could see Seager in a couple weeks to a month.

Comment From fvads
Lets get it out of the way early, Moncada update, or nah?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t have any new info there

Comment From e
Thoughts on early season performances for Urias, Severino, and Berrios? Have you seen any of them live and have any of them changed your opinions?

Kiley McDaniel: Should be seeing Berrios’ next start

Comment From Dave
What’s the deal with Reynaldo Lopez right now? I heard he left extended spring but haven’t seen him

Kiley McDaniel: Moncada, Giolito and Lopez are all in extended

Comment From tony
Who’s faster? Dee Gordon or Billy Hamilton? Is there anyone else who compares to them?

Kiley McDaniel: Hamilton is the fastest guy of this generation. 90 runner would describe him, but I think I’ve gotten game times that would be a 95 on him before.

Comment From Wobatus
Where would you rank Gavin Cecchini now? SSS, but since July 23 last year (after a month of struggles as a 20 year old in high A), in 191 ABs, .288/.369/.450, .162 ISO, 11.3 BB%/9.9 K%, just 21 in AA.

Kiley McDaniel: I’m running thru the lists and updating everything now, mostly to adjust for transactions, but also to adjust 1-2 guys per org that may have changed. I think Cecchini will adjust up as he was a guy where I wanted to see if late 2014 was real and it looks like it was.

Those are the guys (there’s very few of them) where the early numbers will change something. Has tools/age/pedigree and hit well in short run last year/finished well. That and big tools, no performance that’s now performing (like Phil Ervin), particularly when there was talk of an injury last year and now they’re healthy, largely dismissing last year.

Comment From Kris
CARLOS CORREA?

Kiley McDaniel: CALM DOWN

Comment From Bruce
Whats the difference between a player “swinging for the fences” and just swinging as hard as possible on every swing? Are players not supposed to do that?

Kiley McDaniel: Some guys can do this successfully (Stanton, Harper, among others) and some have to dial it down to be effective. It’s sort of a proxy for athleticism if you can swing as hard as possible and still hit world class pitching.

Comment From Eric Weinstein
It’s early, but Schwarber is off to a scorching start in AA – .347/.462/.653 – could you see him getting called up to the majors at some point this year to replace Coghlan in LF?

Kiley McDaniel: If things don’t improve and it’s clear the Cubs will be in the pennant race, yes

Comment From Kyle
Tyler Stephenson going #1?

Kiley McDaniel: Some buzz he goes top 10 now. I’ll be seeing him in a playoff double header tomorrow. Should be interesting to see which teams are there after Dave Stewart was in last week.

Comment From john doe
Any thoughts on that dude you’ve written about extensively and in excruicating detail? Also, when will he be called up?

Kiley McDaniel: And who should I release from my fantasy roster for him and if you’re wrong I WILL YELL A LOT IN THE NEXT CHAT

Comment From Alex
Approximately where would you place the 1st overall 2015 amateur pick in your prospect rankings?

Kiley McDaniel: More on both parts of this in the coming weeks. Will answer that question pre draft with my rankings….along with answering who will go 1-1 too, because that isn’t settled.

Comment From Bill
Does the stat line have a place in scouting? Do you look at them to see who you might want to take a look at? It’s all information. Or would this create bias for you?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s some people (mostly people in offices) who would like if the scouts didn’t look at the stats at all, wrote simply about what they saw, then the office people can factor in the numbers.

That’s kind of a hermetically-sealed, idealistic way to look at it, but I see what they’re saying. Let the people who specialize in certain skills do only those things and not the stuff they aren’t as good at.

There’s obviously a place for them, they matter at some point and they mean more things more quickly when there’s a report that correlates to what the numbers say. It’s a sliding scale where stats mean incrementally more each game that is played and at each higher level.

If anyone says that one or the other is useless, you should disregard much of what that person says. That fight is over and someone who is still fighting clearly has lots of other problems in their decision-making process.

Comment From Colby
in regards to Hamilton and the 90-95, are you saying that the scale goes to 100 or its just an extrapolation due to how fast he is?

Kiley McDaniel: Extrapolation. The scale is 20-80 and 80 is a number (3.9 to first for a lefty hitter, 6.3 or so in the 60 yard dash) with standard gaps for each grade, so you can obviously figure out what a 90 would be. Buxton has given me a 85-90 run time in a game too. Also, when a hitter jailbreaks (out of the box quickly due to the swing), you’ll get a extra tenth or two off the run time. The Hamilton/Buxton times I’m quoting are normal full swings, because a 60 runner could give you an 80 time on the right play, but that doesn’t really mean anything in the scheme of things or change his run grade.

Comment From Guest
Is it hard to meet girls being a scout?

Kiley McDaniel: You aren’t at bars or social things at night as much as a normal young person…but the short answer is no.

Comment From Tim
Justin Hooper stock seems to be falling. Thoughts on draft position and future?

Kiley McDaniel: Your weekly reminder for general draft thoughts
2015 rankings: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…
2016 & 2017 rankings: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Kiley McDaniel: Hooper has been up and down this spring, but looks like a mid first rounder on his best nights, maybe even better than that. Late first is a reasonable hedge grade at this point, but that could still move up/down by draft day and I’m hearing he won’t be a signability pushover, so that could also affect where he goes.

Comment From Phillies113
How much of an improvement would signing Jhailyn Ortiz be to the Phillies’ minor league rankings? Worst case, it’s at least a step in the right direction, yes?

Kiley McDaniel: One 16-year-old can’t move the ranking of a whole system in any meaningful way on his own. Of course it’s better to do that than to not do it.

Comment From LP
How feasible is a scenario in which Rodgers falls to the Rangers at 4? Do you think the Astros and DBacks would both pass on him?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think Rodgers gets past 2

Comment From Alex
Is Vogelbach kind of a potential Billy Butler type or is that wrong?

Kiley McDaniel: Bryant Reeves + Billy Butler = Dan Vogelbach, Big County Breakfast

Comment From Casey
Do you see Arizona calling up Yoan Lopez this year?

Kiley McDaniel: No, though for PR reasons I guess I could see a September look.

Comment From RK
Are there the same restrictions in trading international FAs for a year as there are for rule 4? Just wondering if Moncada is tradable (yes I know he’s probably at least a couple years away) but he’s long term blocked as can be.

Kiley McDaniel: I’m pretty sure it’s 12 months for any player with a first pro contract. Did Dave’s report of them amending that rule to be post-WS rather than 12 months with the PTBNL loophole also include July 2 guys or just drafted players?

Comment From Andy
Among all of your travels, what % of games do you attend that are HS/college vs minor league ball. 50/50? Mix in any major league games throughout the year?

Kiley McDaniel: Hard to say because I don’t keep a list of them all, it just goes in waves. Amateur stuff now mostly since it’s draft crunch time, but I’ll go see nice MILB matchups, like the Chattanooga team, etc.

Comment From Rob
Andrew Benintendi keeps on hitting. Has he grown into a better athlete with better tools? Is it possible he becomes a top 15 pick in the draft this year?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like 20-30 is his high end right now

Comment From T.J.
Have you seen Alex Reyes at all this year? Wondering if he’s had a tick up in stuff at all and what that might mean for his future projections?

Kiley McDaniel: He has, tweeted a few weeks ago that he’s one of the guys whose grade is higher. Went from 55 FV to 60 FV (top 30 or so) in his first few starts because the stuff ticked up.

Comment From Parker
Have you heard any positive news about Jeff Hoffman? How’s he coming along?

Kiley McDaniel: Already up to 97 or 98 in rehab/ST outings. Coming along nicely.

Comment From jimmer
At what point do the Twins realize that Meyer isn’t the Ace they thought they were getting when they traded Span for him?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s an off-putting aggressiveness to this question. I and many others had him pegged for a reliever for a few years, but he may still figure it out enough to be a stuff over command-type #3 starter. It’s an 80 fastball and 70 slider in short stints and he was comfortably in my top 100, so it’s not like he’s useless

Comment From Brian
Talked to anyone who has seen Sano? Early season struggles worrisome.

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll be seeing him in the next week or so

Comment From Curtis
If you were a new GM of a floundering, poorly-constructed team, how would you attack the upcoming draft? What would be your “five year plan”? Build with BPA? hitters with upside? steady prospects? more young hitting, older pitching?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve always been bothered by the term “best player available”. By the end of the first round, literally one guy in your draft room speaking up and saying “I think we’re a little too low on this guy” can change who that guy is, much less in the 3rd round. That’s how fragile that concept is lower in the draft. I think it only applies to the top half of the first round.

These sorts of plans have to change with whats available to you in trade/draft and what you already have. There’s no one right way to do it. Have to be flexible and find value.

Comment From j
Could you see Luis Severino being called up in the second-half?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes.

Comment From Dan
I’ve heard from a some scouts this year that there’s “no chance” Barreto sticks at SS and his home is at a corner. Do you agree with that?

Kiley McDaniel: Not at all. Chance for SS, but CF or 2B if he isn’t.

Comment From Joe
Hearing any names connected with the Braves for this years draft? Thanks

Kiley McDaniel: No way to know who will be there at this point

Comment From RK
Say the Cubs give up on Schwarber being a C. How much does that accelerate his ETA? The bat is ready no? Is he a trade chip? DH isn’t coming to NL for at least a couple years right?

Kiley McDaniel: https://youtu.be/V1PqslRMWa…

Comment From Hear or see anything that changes what you said in your San Diego prospets recap over the winter about Austin Hedges? Stat line looks better, but small sample sizes, yada, yada, yada.
Hear or see anything that changes what you said in your San Diego prospects recap over the winter about Austin Hedges? Stat line looks better, but small sample sizes, yada, yada, yada.

Kiley McDaniel: Talked to a guy that saw Hedges and said it looked smoother at the plate. May be something to the stat uptick.

Comment From Teach
Sorry to be a tool, I read the introductions, but what does the slash denote? For example, Game Power: 55/70. Is that present and future?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes

Comment From Aaron
Why do you never think young shortstops can stick there?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s only 30 starting shortstops, so it would be pretty stupid if I said there were 150 of them in the minors

Comment From sean
How many MLB GMs are you on a first name basis with?

Kiley McDaniel: The real question is about the words they say after my first name

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Peraza for Judge. Fair trade for both teams? Does it make sense?

Kiley McDaniel: You may be on to something there

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Do you think Teams should be able to trade draft picks like in the NBA, NFL and NHL?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes. It’s absurd that they can’t. Hopefully new CBA in 2017 will fix this.

Comment From mtsw
Do you worry about tall guys having bigger strike zones a lot? Someone like Kris Bryant with a more upright stance seems like he’s at a big disadvantage.

Kiley McDaniel: His stat line would like to speak with you outside

Comment From Eric
Hey, nobody has asked a question in the comments yet, nice! Also, who’s the Mike Trout of this year’s draft and can you see GIlbert Lara getting a September call up this season?

Kiley McDaniel: I appreciate the art in asking two completely ridiculous questions, I hope with a wink and a nod.

Comment From Baseball Fan
Any rumors about who the Cubs are targeting in the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Tied to Daz Cameron and Kyle Tucker, among others

Comment From mtsw
How fast would a 12 year old need to be able to throw to get on teams’ radars? Or is that too young to project anyone forward as a pitching prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: I really hope this was an intentionally terrible question but I suspect that it isn’t.

Comment From Matt
Are you still planning to do an article showing examples of different grades of pitch types? For example: What is a 70 grade slider vs. a 40 grade slider. Thanks.

Kiley McDaniel: I will at some point. 70 vs. 40 is obvious enough that you could tell very quickly. 70 would be the best slider most scouts have ever seen and 40 is “he shouldn’t throw that pitch anymore”

Comment From Sam
Nats front office were definitely just reading this chat and were reminded that they have to put Lopez somewhere: http://www.masnsports.com/b… Scary timing haha

Kiley McDaniel: I think the Nats should sign me for a seven figure bonus

Comment From Barney Stinson
How much easier would scouting be if you had a personal helicopter?

Kiley McDaniel: If?

Comment From Phillies113
When you’re scouting, do you get free food, discounted food, or do you have to get in line with the rest of everyone else if you’re hungry?

Kiley McDaniel: Press box food is often free and sometimes great. Dreamland ribs in Birmingham!

Comment From Barney Stinson
Meeting girls at minor league games is probably easier than in bars.

Kiley McDaniel: But I’m working, soooo…

Comment From Fanatic
Question about RED SOX or CUBS PROSPECT!!!!!!!!

Comment From joe random
how would you grade years crop of international prospects as a whole? it feels weaker or below average?

Kiley McDaniel: This year is much deeper than last year in terms of 7 figure caliber players. The top couple players aren’t quite as good, tho.

Comment From Guest
So Gleyber Torres, huh? Kid’s a beast.

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve always been the high guy on him. When I ranked him the top prospect in his July 2 class over Eloy Jimenez (as far as I know, I was the only one to do that), a now-GM saw me at a game and told me I was crazy. I will remind him of this when I see him next. If Torres ends up being a bust, I will never mention this again.

Comment From joe random
do you have a “forrest wall” for this year? the one position player you’re much higher on than anyone else?

Kiley McDaniel: I have an inclination on who it might be, but need to wait a little later to figure out where the consensus has him

Comment From mtsw
Pat Connaughton going to the NBA?

Kiley McDaniel: He’ll try. Not sure he’s gonna stick.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Wait – “they mean more things more quickly when there’s a report that correlates to what the numbers say.” Isn’t that the definition of confirmation bias?

Kiley McDaniel: No. One thing on it’s own (stats) means little. One thing on it’s own (scouting) means more, but not everything. When they both say the same thing, they mean more together. That’s more evidence. It would be confirmation bias if I wanted the stats to mean more and I let that influence my own scouting take, which I made higher than it should be.

Comment From Joe Smoke
When can we expect your 1st mock?

Kiley McDaniel: A couple more weeks, I’d guess. I could do an interesting top 7-10 right now, but I’d rather wait until I get a better feel for the other picks.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Why do you prefer to scout for articles and sites like this than for an organization?

Kiley McDaniel: Pluses and minuses to both. Depends on the exact position to determine which one I’d prefer.

Comment From Barney Stinson
How high would Kyler Murray have to get drafted not to attend A&M?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s not about draft position, it’s about money. I think the “possibly never play football again” price tag is at least $4M and probably more.

Comment From Zach
Did you read Chris Mitchell’s recent article? Do you think players that exhibit good bat-to-ball skills have a higher floor than prospects with more swing and miss in their game? Also, do you think prospects with high FB% in the minors are more likely to get the most of their power in the majors?

Kiley McDaniel: There is a bias in prospect-y stuff against the lower upside, contact hitter because it isn’t exciting. I’m trying to correct for that, but I think there’s something to that.

Comment From Andrew
If you are Lunhow, who do you take at #2 and #5 in June?

Kiley McDaniel: If Rodgers goes 1st, I’d probably go Tate and Bregman

Comment From Guest
Is peak Jeff Hoffman as good as Giolito?

Kiley McDaniel: More changeup and the same FB/CB, maybe even a little more CMD. That said, it’ll take some time for Hoffman to get back to his peak self, if he ever does. He could still be plenty good and not quite put every piece together.

Comment From Gila Monster
Would you ever be more vocal in presenting the scout side of things compared to the to the numbers side that Fangraphs is known for. For example, I didn’t believe in closer mentality or the value of a clubhouse guy until I started listening to the scouting side. It is so important to provide both views.

Kiley McDaniel: I think that’s why I’m here?

Comment From mtsw
Which player would make the best President if the constitution were amended to require active MLB rostering as a requirement for high office?

Kiley McDaniel: Either Yasiel Puig or Bartolo Colon

Comment From War2d2
Re: first name basis. Is it kind of like that scene in The Rock when Connery breaks through the two-way mirror and sees the FBI guy and says “Womack! You piece of s***!”?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s pretty close

Comment From Bernie Brewer
Could you see a team saying this draft is so weak, intentionally drafting a guy with a big number, offering the minimum, and collecting a 2016 pick?

Kiley McDaniel: While this may be the time when that makes the most sense, that means putting your career on the line based on what you think some unpredictable teenagers will do in the next year. Unnecessary risk to take, even if (for example) you are picking 5th, there’s a clear top 4 and they’re all gone and next year already has 10-15 guys that would go top 5 in this class. There could be a scenario where that would actually make sense in the abstract, but I don’t think anyone does it intentionally, ever. Maybe if a player changes his number after being drafted and it shifts the incentives a bit, but never on purpose from the beginning. Or, at least I can’t believe that will ever happen.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Was Mike Trout an 80 runner when he came up? and what is he today?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes. Haven’t timed him, but I’d guess about 70 now.

Comment From carl
Does Robert Stephenson’s poor start worry you at all?

Kiley McDaniel: Velo was down when I saw him a few weeks ago (still 92-95 t96) and the command wasn’t quite there yet, but the changeup was improved. Not an easy one to figure out.

Kiley McDaniel: Alright let’s wrap it up there. Working on a big project I think you guys will like.