Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 8/19/15

Kiley McDaniel: Kiley is ready to chat now

Comment From Hobbes2d
Hey Kiley,

Kiley McDaniel: Hey!

Comment From Nelson
Which list did Pompey not make it onto? Is he less than a 50FV?

Kiley McDaniel: Noticed that a few guys for that rookie list slipped through my filters, like Pompey (50) and Alex Gonzalez (50). I’ll go back in and add them after the chat.

Comment From Colby
Would Kopech have made your updated list of the non 200 if he wasnt suspended?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably, but due to the reliever risk, he would’ve been near the back of that list

Comment From Zonk
If the 2014 draft was redrafted today, would Schwarber be the first pick? Who would round out the top 5….Turner, Rodon, Nola, Conforto?

Kiley McDaniel: Not sure about picks 2-5, but Schwarber would probably go 1st

Comment From Nelson
Not a believer in Nick Williams? What does he have to do to improve his ranking?

Kiley McDaniel: Have a better approach and/or instincts, which is what I would’ve said to this question for the last 5 years

Comment From Cory S.
Good noon, do you see Yoan Moncada staying at 2B with his size? (fun fact: he has 12 2 steal games and 13 1 steal games)

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah I think he can. Still needs to work on some technique stuff but I think the ability is there

Comment From Xolo
What kind of consideration did Ruddy Giron receive for your list?

Kiley McDaniel: He was very close; he’s a guy that could slip into the 50 FV area by the end of the process

Kiley McDaniel: People asking about where I rate ____ player that I didn’t mention in the article today. If he was in the top 200 and didn’t graduate, probably the same grade: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Eric
How close was Stephen Gonsalves to making your “Not in MiLB Top 200 Before 2015, At Least 50 FV” list? He’s had a great season so far.

Kiley McDaniel: Kinda close? Still trouble with a consistent breaking ball, which has also been his issue for more than a few years now.

Comment From Nelson
Based on his ranking I assume you are in the Severino-as-a-starter camp?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep. Athletic and loose with premium stuff. I’ll take my chances.

Comment From Pale Hose
Hey Kiley. How common/likely is it that a prospect improves FV without it being noticeable in the stat line?

Kiley McDaniel: Could be an Orlando Arcia type thing where the numbers don’t necessarily improve, but he keeps hitting well against guys 3-4 years older. Jorge Alfaro apparently improved his approach noticeably this year but it didn’t really show up in his BB/K ratio, while people assumed Nick Williams did since his ratio changed. So, it happens, but usually there’s an uptick in performance along with it.

Comment From Jeremy
Has the Brewers’ Jorge Lopez become a Top 100 prospect? Has pitched very well in AA, and seemed to have a pedigree.

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, his velo spiked, talked to a scout that saw him 92-95 recently. He’s in the top 50.

Comment From Brian
Thanks for the list Kiley, but are we going to get a top 100/200 prospects list or no?

Kiley McDaniel: It wouldn’t be worth much if I did. To have some sort of precision for that many names, I have to make months worth of calls. That’s why that length of list happens once. To grade a bunch of players the same or very close to what they’ll be for the big list is a little easier. That will happen soon, but the triple-digit ordered list only happens once a year. I’m trying to avoid making lists longer than the information supports.

Comment From Jimmy Johns
Sean Newcomb : Heard anything on him lately and will he be in the rotation early next season?

Kiley McDaniel: He was one of the late cuts from the top 26. He’s 93-95, plus breaking ball and he’s a huge athletic lefty. If the command gets a little better, he’ll easily be a top 25 sort of guy

Comment From Mike
You listed Osuna as a RHR, does that mean you see him as a reliever long term or is that just his present position?

Kiley McDaniel: Usually when a starter gets rushed into an MLB relief role and finds success, it warps the whole career because the GM can’t justify taking 2-3 years to finish the starter development when he could’ve had 3-4 WAR during that time. If he’s traded, I could see it happening with a fresh start, but hard to imagine Osuna being a starter, which some scouts questioned before the year anyway.

Comment From Eli
You had been critical of the Yankees’ front office dysfunction with the Moncada debacle. Are things better now, especially with Felix Lopez’s leaving? Any updated thoughts on last year’s class?

Kiley McDaniel: When I talk about front offices that are dysfunctional, it isn’t because of the GM or the front office itself, it always goes back to ownership. If the owner/ownership group is constantly moving the target, changing who has his ear, dipping into personnel decisions, etc. that is how you get a front office that isn’t acting in the best interest of the team, but jockeying for position to keep their power.

There’s at least a few teams in this situation and it doesn’t change unless the owner changes. Some GMs are better at working around it than others and I think we’ve seen that Cash has been in don’t give an eff mode for a few years. He’ll tell us when he isn’t happy about something (Rafael Soriano deal, A-Rod in general, etc.) he was forced to do, in many cases.

Comment From Jake
How close was Brett Phillips to making the top 25 list?

Kiley McDaniel: Another late cut. He’d probably make a top 40

Comment From Straight outta Compton.
Gilbert Lara fading in AZ, anything to worry about?

Kiley McDaniel: Reports early this year were glowing, so I’m not too worried

Comment From Kevin
I noticed that the player pages still have the old (preseason) tool grades. Will these be updated soon?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep

Comment From Jake
If you’re Andy MacPhail, are you kicking yourself for letting Dombrowski go to Boston? If there’s someone who can make a Philly turnaround happen, it’s him.

Kiley McDaniel: Well he would’ve taken MacPhail’s job, so I’m guessing he isn’t kicking himself

Comment From Mike
Have you seen Anderson Espinoza yet? If not, what have you heard about him?

Kiley McDaniel: Looking to track him down at some point this summer/fall. He’s into the high-90’s, flashes plus breaker, CH/CMD/delivery all good enough at this stage to keep starting. Aged like a 2016 draft prospect and there’s two (Groome/Pint) with similar stuff/command, but they’re both 6’5+, so for now Espinoza is probably a little behind them, but in that elite group if he was in the draft class

Comment From CoolWinnebago
Hi Kiley, great update. Lewis Brinson seems to be having a season that could vault him from #131 to top 50, maybe even was on the fringe of your top 26. Am i crazy?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep he’s another guy in that mix that would’ve made a top 50.

Comment From xx
Why isn’t Aaron Nola on the MiLB Top 26 or the list of guys who exhausted their prospect eligibility in 2015?

Kiley McDaniel: Well he hasn’t exhausted his prospect eligibilty (though he probably will in a few weeks) and his stuff is down a little this year, so he was more in the 30-50 range of the MILB list.

Comment From Sean
You mentioned the range of FV 50 guys is likely higher now, where would those guys fall? 60-120?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know, haven’t lined them all up yet, but I’d guess 10-20 spots higher, so yeah probably something like that

Comment From David
Saw another big prospect writer say Derek Fisher’s PEAK upside is 30-30. Agree?

Kiley McDaniel: Eh, well his whole problem is that his power doesn’t show up often enough in games and the speed doesn’t really play on defense or on the bases. He technically has the speed and power to do 25-25 but I’m not optimistic he ever does.

Comment From Jim
Meadows in your top-20. I assume that you are believer that power will come.

Kiley McDaniel: Yep it’s in there and he’s one of the those opposite field power in games at a young age guys, so I always buy in early on that

Comment From Lars
Can you explain the Hultzen situation? If he’s out of options because he signed a major league deal, what happens next year if the Mariners don’t want him on their 25 man roster?

Kiley McDaniel: Exposed to waivers, so another team has to put him on their 25-man, or do that thing you see pretty often where they claim him, then outright him and hope no one else does the same thing. Dylan Bundy is in the same situation next year, but he’s talented enough Baltimore will obviously hold onto him

Comment From mark
What do you think of what wilkerman Garcia has done in the GCL as a 17 year old?

Kiley McDaniel: Good tools, advanced feel, not the twitchy star potential type you would assume when you hear hype about a teenage latin shortstop.

Comment From dom
Would you say that prospect following and awareness is at an all time high?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah I have to assume it’ll only keep increasing until some sort of bubble pops and we’re all poor.

Comment From paul allen
In Blake Snell’s case, is it just improved command that’s rocketed him up the rankings, or has the stuff jumped as well? If it’s just command, why would someone like Stephenson get ranked so high without showing good command?

Kiley McDaniel: Stuff is way better. Up to 98, slider flashes plus, CH is still 55 and command is still just okay, but much more margin for error now

Comment From mtsw
Do you with DC’s assessment that the Dombrowski hiring in Boston is an indication they’re moving away from statistical analysis and more towards an “old school” scouting-based approach?

Kiley McDaniel: Can’t really disagree with it. Dombrowski’s protege just took over for him in DET and publicly said they were behind on analytics. Cherington and Epstein’s groups were both clearly in on analytics. Dombrowski is in charge of everything in BOS now, so unless he does some team of rivals stuff and embraces debate (TM) and acts on the information (which is possible, but unlikely), the Red Sox will be less analytically-inclined than before. But hey what did analytics do other than reverse some BS curse and win 3 titles in 10 years it’s just for nerds anyway.

Comment From Sandy Kazmir
Nice to see Snell get some love in your last update. While you mentioned that Honeywell and Adames just missed I wonder where you would have Guerrieri and Bauers? Top-100?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably not. Both nice players but more hoping for a 50 or 55 than expecting it.

Comment From I am the Walrus
How much does the injury to Dahl limit his long term potential?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think it changes anything long-term, but things keep happening to keep Dahl off the field. He got some support for the list and would be in the top 50.

Comment From Joe
Mildly surprised Tim Anderson didn’t make the top 26. Has he shown any real improvement with his plate discipline?

Kiley McDaniel: Not really but the tools are still LEGIT

Comment From CJ
Will the prospect ratings on individual player pages be updated sometime soon with this information? And if so with that come with a tools update or just overall FV?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, all that stuff will be updated in a few weeks or so

Comment From dom
did you ever have any observations from Michael Jordan playing baseball? Looked like he had some power

Kiley McDaniel: I actually watched a few of his games in person but I think I was 8, so not a ton of scouting notes

Comment From I am the Walrus
Whatever happened to Cuban Eddie Julio Martinez?

Kiley McDaniel: Still out there, still expecting him to get around $9-10M from the Dodgers.

Comment From TJ
Is Aaron Nola a player that slipped through the cracks, or is he not at least a 50 FV anymore?

Kiley McDaniel: didn’t miss him, he just hasn’t gotten to 50 IP yet, so he’s a 27-50th ranked prospect that isn’t on the graduated list yet

Comment From Chris
Why only a 50 FV for Kepler? He has put up insane numbers in AA, young for the league and raw before.

Kiley McDaniel: He’s also a left fielder and doesn’t have a plus tool. Small margin for error.

Comment From The Giants Fanboy
One of the sleeper prospects in the Giants system that’s breaking out late is Jordan Johnson. There’s a lot of great reports about his stuff and potential. Are you hearing the same positive feedback? What are your thoughts about him?

Kiley McDaniel: Saw former FG writer Eric Longenhagen tweet about him last night. You can trust what he says. Sounds like a solid prospect.

Comment From Buxton
I see you have downgraded Buxton’s FV, is that just because he cant stay healthy or is have you seen something more troubling?

Comment From Patrick
Some notable exclusions from the Phillies system: Williams, Thompson, Alfaro, Pujols, Luis. Which of that group has the best FV?

Kiley McDaniel: Alfaro is a 55, Williams is a 55 but lower and Thompson is a 50, maybe 55

Comment From dom
are players aware of where they rank on various lists?

Kiley McDaniel: More than you would think

Comment From soaktherich
How high were you on JP Crawford before the 2013 draft? Should I be mad that the Red Sox didn’t under-slot him instead of Trey Ball?

Kiley McDaniel: I had Crawford 13th and Ball 15th. I always cringe a few times when I look at old draft lists. Would’ve liked to flip 1 and 2, but at least I didn’t fall into the Jon Gray 1-1 hype. Here’s what I had pre-draft for 2013: http://www.scout.com/mlb/sc…

Comment From RotoLando
You’re daaaaaaaamn right.

Comment From Ryan
Was A.J. Reed dramatically underrated coming out of the 2014 draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Wouldn’t say dramatically, but his swing wasn’t pretty and it was bat-only, so he’s the kind of guy that’s always gonna last a bit in the and not go super duper high on prospect lists. He’s hit more than expected and being a two-way guy in college but still putting up monster numbers may have been the clue we should’ve taken.

Comment From Jake
Don’t kill me BUT when do you start team rankings?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t decided yet. Probably in a few weeks once I’ve finished the draft rankings update

Comment From Blerg
Kolby Allard at 50 FV on your list … do you think that’s his ceiling, a #3 starter, or is the 50 FV more a reflection of his lack of pro experience and something that could go higher w a good season in rookie ball or low A in 2016?

Kiley McDaniel: The FV is a representation of his value and reasonable outcome. Most teengers with a 50 FV it means there’s a decent chance he’s a 60, a decent chance he’s a 40-45 and a decent chase he’s nothing, with 50 representing the mean/median of those and also reflecting his trade value to be similar to other 50s. As they get closer to the majors, the closer a 50 is to meaning I think he’s going to be a 50, rather than this represents the huge range of possibilities.

Comment From Colby
If Albies had shown even a little bit of power where would that put his FV?

Kiley McDaniel: If he was 6’0, he’d be next to JP Crawford, maybe ahead of him

Comment From Damaso
I understand he is young for the level, but as a bat-first prospect with a 4.9bb% and 108wrc+ in A ball (also his first solid milb sample) and limited power potential, how does Rafael Devers crack the top 20 in all baseball?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s not limited power potential, it’s 60 raw and Devers can play 3B as long as he keeps his body under control. If I told you I had a HS senior with plus power that can probably play 3B, has plus bat control and plus bat speed and he’s at least league average offensively in Low-A right now…would that be something you would be interested in?

Comment From Blerg
Saw you had Ozzie Albies at #12. What present or future major leaguer(s) would you compare him to?

Kiley McDaniel: There isn’t a comp, but there’s elements of Furcal and Lindor and Luis Castillo. Take the best from each of those and you get the idea.

Comment From Carney
Big jump for Barreto on the in-season list. I know a lot of scouts are divided on him, what made you put him in the top 20?

Kiley McDaniel: Super advanced hit tool, plus runner, will play up the middle, super young for the level. That’s why Albies and Torres are high too. I guess I have a type.

Comment From Marjinwalker
Jorge Lopez– He’s top 50 now? He wasn’t on the Top 200 prospects list, so shouldn’t he have been on that pop-up list? (Thanks for all the work you do, btw!)

Kiley McDaniel: You’re right. Though he was in the 143-200 group but he wasn’t. I’ll add him to the article soon

Comment From Ostrich
How long till we see another Strasburg/Harper-level megahyped draft prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: Not sure we have one for 2016 and 2017 is too far away to have a great idea

Comment From Daniel McKiley
Rank the following Cuban free agents (or soon-to-be free agents): Eddy Julio Martinez, Yasiel Sierra, Norge Ruiz, Vladimir Gutierrez, Luis Yander La O Camacho, Yusnier Diaz, Guillermo Heredia.

Kiley McDaniel: No.

Comment From CJM
Sounds like some in the Braves org have soured on Peraza a bit, how do you view him at this point?

Kiley McDaniel: 50 FV, solid, MLB-ready player with clear shortcomings he’s never really addressed

Comment From Pasty Guy in Atlanta
Oh…. this is awkward

Comment From Matt
Allard, Soroka, and Riley are a heck of a first round haul for Atlanta. Do they have each have a shot at a future top-100/200 list?

Kiley McDaniel: Sure. Allard will be in a nice spot this year if he stays healthy. The other two probably need a good 2016 to get into a nice spot on the list

Comment From DCer
Have you ever been aware of a player being totally butthurt by a ranking you tagged him with?

Kiley McDaniel: One of the guys I ranked in today’s article stopped me at a game to talk to me about what I had written about him. I had been tough on him early, then noticed his progress, so it was a pleasant conversation but I could tell he was still a little peeved about the first few things I wrote when he was struggling. Sometimes they need to see critical stuff from an impartial source to understand their limitations and sometimes I’m that impartial source.

Comment From DCer
Any feel for Alex Verdugo? He apparently was trying a new leg kick in April and May, and did poorly. Then ditched it and threw up a ~.350 average for June and July. Got a bump to A+ and hasn’t stopped. Seems like he has elite contact ability, decent power, and he must have a great arm since he was a former pitcher. You like?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m in on him. Liked the bat since he was a HS junior playing with the older kids on a travel team with Billy McKinney

Comment From FireDrayton
What’s AJ Reed’s range in a full ranking? Top 100 or so?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah should make the top 100

Comment From Max
What are the odds that David Denson makes it to the bigs?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll guess 30%. Will be very interested to see how he performs next year with a (hopefully) less clouded mind.

Comment From Tyler
Hey Kiley, Love the work.

Kiley McDaniel: This seems like a good note to end on. Hug somebody today.