The 2015 In-Season Prospect Update
Since I made you wait a little longer than I intended for a mid-season/trade-deadline prospect rankings update, I decided to expand upon the form with four lists instead of just one. Each of these lists uses tiers like my other lists, but each list is also ordered by preference within each tier. I’ve also started using Present Value (PV) in addition to the normal Future Value (FV) as a better way to show how close a prospect is to reaching his ceiling, or being ready for a call-up. See this article for more about FV and the 20-80 scouting scale in general.
The first list is the standard top-prospect list with the standard 130 at-bat/50 innings pitched qualifications, so prospects in the big leagues are eligible for the list. That said, a few players like Kyle Schwarber and Daniel Norris are about a week from losing their prospect eligibility and are in the big leagues, so I moved them to another of the lists below in anticipation.
The second list features players who were eligible for the Top 200 Prospect List last year that didn’t make it, but would do so comfortably now. Think of this as the minor-league version of “pop-up guys” that you’ll hear referred to more often in the draft: players that improved greatly in a short period of time. The standard for being listed is 50 FV, which was the 80th through 143rd prospects on the preseason list, but, for reasons I’ll explain below, should be even higher this year.
The third list contains the players from this summer’s draft and July 2nd international signing period who meet the same 50-FV-or-better requirement.
The fourth list features the players who lost their rookie eligibility this year and are now 50-FV-or-better players, which includes lots of players from the Top 200, but also some prospects that emerged this year due to their performance in the major leagues.
The blind spot of this sort of article is the players on the preseason Top 200 who are still prospects, but not in the Top 26 update. Those players have already been written about a lot in the past, and you can probably read my preseason report, look at their 2015 numbers and guess about where they’ll land this off-season. Everyone else of consequence should be mentioned below.
Talent Ebbs and Flows
This is the first time that I’ve done a “rookie of a certain caliber” type list, but everyone I talked to said this group is much bigger, maybe even double the size of most rookie classes. In this case, the narrative of a historic rookie class diluting the top-end talent in the minor leagues appears to be correct. You’ll notice each of the top few tiers in the first list below is smaller than it was in before the season.
Next summer’s draft class is seen as an above-average crop and this past summer’s draft was seen as below average. The most recent July 2 class was seen as above average, but most of those players won’t appear on lists like this for another year or two when they start playing in America. You could connect these points to see an ebb and flow of talent, projecting it to hit another high in a year or two.
I ranked the top 2016 draft prospects before the summer and will have updated rankings for that class in a few weeks. Here’s a refresher on this summer’s draft class and July 2 class.
The Top Prospect List
While the Top 200 was based on a round number, it also worked out that a natural cutoff in talent appeared right at 200. I was planning on doing a top 25 or 30 for this update but it worked out that 26 players was the number around which I could find some sort of consensus.
There was a solid group of talent that missed the cut and I won’t mention all of them, but it’s only right to Rockies fans to point out that your team had five players just miss the cut: righties Jeff Hoffman and Jon Gray, along with shortstop Brendan Rodgers (who is atop the third list below), center fielder David Dahl and third baseman Ryan McMahon. Those five won’t be easy to sort out this winter for the organizational list as they’re tightly packed.
Other teams with multiple players in the just-missed group: the Rays with righty Brent Honeywell and shortstop Willy Adames, the Reds with left fielder Jesse Winker and righty Robert Stephenson and the Mets with left fielder Michael Conforto, shorstop Amed Rosario and lefty Steven Matz.
I didn’t list the 2014 FV for Dansby Swanson since I didn’t formally do that for draft prospects before the spring, but he would’ve been a 50 FV if I had done that; I had him 7th in the class last fall.
I list the 2014 ranking and FV for players as a quick way to show progress during the 2015 season for each player but also to keep things honest. I’ve complained for a while that there’s no accountability in the prospect-rankings game and this is one of the ways I’m looking to change that, at least for me.
Since I didn’t rank the last 57 players in the Top 200 (the 45+ FV group), I just gave those players a rank (173) that reflected the average of that whole group. Also, I said in the introduction to the Top 200 that Yoan Moncada would rank 8th on the list if he were eligible, then he signed before Opening Day (the cut-off for these rankings). Due to this, any player ranked lower than 8th on the Top 200 has his rank one number lower than it was on the published list.
| Current | 2014 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | Age | Org | PV | FV | FV | Rank | |
| 1 | Corey Seager | 3B | 21.3 | Dodgers | 50 | 65 | 65 | 6 |
| 2 | Byron Buxton | CF | 21.7 | Twins | 45 | 65 | 70 | 2 |
| 3 | J.P. Crawford | SS | 20.6 | Phillies | 45 | 65 | 60 | 11 |
| 4 | Lucas Giolito | RHS | 21.1 | Nationals | 45 | 65 | 65 | 7 |
| 5 | Julio Urias | LHS | 19.0 | Dodgers | 50 | 65 | 65 | 4 |
| 6 | Yoan Moncada | 2B | 20.2 | Red Sox | 20 | 65 | 65 | 8 |
| 7 | Jose Berrios | RHS | 21.2 | Twins | 50 | 60 | 60 | 25 |
| 8 | Orlando Arcia | SS | 21.0 | Brewers | 45 | 60 | 50 | 88 |
| 9 | Luis Severino | RHS | 21.5 | Yankees | 50 | 60 | 60 | 27 |
| 10 | Nomar Mazara | RF | 20.3 | Rangers | 40 | 60 | 55 | 47 |
| 11 | Tyler Glasnow | RHS | 22.0 | Pirates | 40 | 60 | 60 | 13 |
| 12 | Ozhaino Albies | SS | 18.6 | Braves | 20 | 60 | 55 | 35 |
| 13 | Joey Gallo | 3B | 21.7 | Rangers | 45 | 60 | 60 | 17 |
| 14 | Franklin Barreto | SS | 19.5 | Athletics | 20 | 60 | 55 | 80 |
| 15 | Trea Turner | SS | 22.1 | Nationals | 45 | 60 | 50 | 84 |
| 16 | Blake Snell | LHS | 22.7 | Rays | 50 | 60 | 45+ | 173 |
| 17 | Alex Reyes | RHS | 21.0 | Cardinals | 20 | 60 | 55 | 77 |
| 18 | Austin Meadows | CF | 20.3 | Pirates | 20 | 60 | 55 | 31 |
| 19 | Manuel Margot | CF | 20.9 | Red Sox | 20 | 60 | 55 | 36 |
| 20 | Rafael Devers | 3B | 18.8 | Red Sox | 20 | 60 | 55 | 49 |
| 21 | Brad Zimmer | CF | 22.7 | Indians | 40 | 55 | 50 | 119 |
| 22 | Aaron Judge | RF | 23.3 | Yankees | 45 | 55 | 55 | 59 |
| 23 | Gleyber Torres | SS | 18.7 | Cubs | 20 | 55 | 45+ | 173 |
| 24 | Dansby Swanson | SS | 21.5 | D’Backs | 20 | 55 | — | — |
| 25 | Jorge Mateo | SS | 20.2 | Yankees | 20 | 55 | 50 | 103 |
| 26 | Clint Frazier | CF | 20.9 | Indians | 20 | 55 | 50 | 102 |
*****
Minor-League Pop-Up Guys
Some of these guys jumped from just missing the Top 200 to being a top 100-150 prospect, which isn’t that big of a jump. The more exciting prospects are ones that jumped from 35+ or 40 FV preseason grades. Astros righty Francis Martes went from an intriguing short-season power arm Houston got as a throw-in in the Colin Moran/Jarred Cosart deal to a guy flashing stuff similar to this summer’s #4 overall pick, Rangers righty Dillon Tate.
This off-season, I wrote that Nationals center fielder Victor Robles was “one of the most exciting players in the system” and he “could shoot up this list if the raw tools convert into performance” despite not playing an official game in America at that point. He was 18th in the system before the year, but is 3rd now and, like Martes, would make the above list if I stretched it to 40.
I was the high guy on Alford after a scorching fall instructional league performance, but it was a risky move since he had been playing football full-time up until instructs. Alford rewarded my faith with a big 2015 and these three players have been and will continue to get hype this off-season, both from their own GMs and from writers referencing what prospects teams are asking about most often in trades.
| Current | 2014 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | Age | Org | PV | FV | FV | Rank | |
| 1 | Francis Martes | RHS | 19.7 | Astros | 35 | 55 | 35+ | — |
| 2 | Victor Robles | CF | 18.2 | Nationals | 20 | 55 | 40 | — |
| 3 | Jorge Lopez | RHS | 22.5 | Brewers | 40 | 55 | 45 | — |
| 4 | Anthony Alford | CF | 21.1 | Blue Jays | 20 | 55 | 45 | — |
| 5 | Gavin Cecchini | SS | 21.7 | Mets | 45 | 55 | 45 | — |
| 6 | Jose De Leon | RHS | 23.0 | Dodgers | 40 | 55 | 45 | — |
| 7 | A.J. Reed | 1B | 22.3 | Astros | 45 | 50 | 45 | — |
| 8 | Javier Guerra | SS | 19.9 | Red Sox | 20 | 50 | 40+ | — |
| 9 | Jacob Nottingham | C | 20.4 | A’s | 20 | 50 | 35+ | — |
| 10 | Cody Reed | LHS | 22.3 | Reds | 35 | 50 | 35+ | — |
| 11 | Anderson Espinoza | RHS | 17.4 | Red Sox | 20 | 50 | 40+ | — |
| 12 | Max Kepler | LF | 22.5 | Twins | 45 | 50 | 45 | — |
| 13 | Trevor Story | SS | 22.8 | Rockies | 45 | 50 | 45 | — |
| 14 | Connor Greene | RHS | 20.4 | Blue Jays | 20 | 50 | 40 | — |
| 15 | Luke Weaver | RHS | 22.0 | Cardinals | 20 | 50 | 45 | — |
| 16 | Michael Fulmer | RHS | 22.4 | Tigers | 40 | 50 | 45 | — |
| 17 | Franklyn Kilome | RHS | 20.1 | Phillies | 20 | 50 | 40+ | — |
| 18 | Jairo Labourt | LHS | 21.4 | Tigers | 20 | 50 | 45 | — |
*****
The Crop of New Pro Talent
These are the new pros who signed in the last few months that are likely to make the top 100-125 this off-season. You’ll notice that the rankings and FVs are very close if not identical to how I graded them before they signed. Rodgers would make the main prospect list if I expanded it to 40. Dansby Swanson is the only player from this group who isn’t on this list because he made the Top 26.
The July 2 guys don’t have FanGraphs profiles and haven’t played in a pro game yet because they sign deals for the next year: on July 2, 2015, they sign a 2016 contract. This is done to get an extra year of control before the Rule 5 Draft, since they’d only play two months after signing and are so far away from contributing. These players will debut in instructs in September/October at the spring training homes of their teams.
| Current | 2014 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | Age | Org | PV | FV | FV | Rank | |
| 1 | Brendan Rodgers | SS | 19.0 | Rockies | 20 | 55 | — | — |
| 2 | Alex Bregman | SS | 21.4 | Astros | 20 | 55 | — | — |
| 3 | Kyle Tucker | RF | 18.6 | Astros | 20 | 50 | — | — |
| 4 | Carson Fulmer | RHS | 21.7 | White Sox | 40 | 50 | — | — |
| 5 | Tyler Jay | LHS | 21.3 | Twins | 40 | 50 | — | — |
| 6 | Andrew Benintendi | CF | 21.1 | Red Sox | 20 | 50 | — | — |
| 7 | Trent Clark | LF | 18.8 | Brewers | 20 | 50 | — | — |
| 8 | Yadier Alvarez | RHS | 19.4 | Dodgers | 20 | 50 | — | — |
| 9 | Dillon Tate | RHS | 21.3 | Rangers | 20 | 50 | — | — |
| 10 | Ian Happ | RF | 21.0 | Cubs | 20 | 50 | — | — |
| 11 | Cornelius Randolph | 3B | 18.2 | Phillies | 20 | 50 | — | — |
| 12 | Daz Cameron | CF | 18.6 | Astros | 20 | 50 | — | — |
| 13 | Tyler Stephenson | C | 19.0 | Reds | 20 | 50 | — | — |
| 14 | Kolby Allard | LHS | 18.0 | Braves | 20 | 50 | — | — |
| 15 | Ke’Bryan Hayes | 3B | 18.6 | Pirates | 20 | 50 | — | — |
| 16 | Lucius Fox | SS | 18.1 | Giants | 20 | 50 | — | — |
*****
The (Many) Graduated Prospects
This is why you’re hearing so much about the legendary rookie class this year: it’s really good. I don’t have context for how many players would’ve been on last year’s version of this list, but scouts estimated about 20-25 would represent a normal year. As the elite talent and depth of this off-season’s prospect list won’t stack up to last year’s, this year’s rookie class will likely be seen as the best for many years. There’s still other players that could be added to this list, like Braves third baseman Hector Olivera, Cardinals right fielder Stephen Piscotty, Yankees righty Luis Severino or Rangers third baseman Joey Gallo.
Another interesting element of this list is to compare players who are similar in value now that weren’t close entering the year, like numbers 15 and 16 on this list, Matt Duffy and Jorge Soler. Since age, track record, contracts and other factors come into play beyond just the PV/FV grade, I can’t say this perfectly maps to trade value, but to say before the season that Soler and Duffy could be near each other seemed impossible. For reference, Duffy’s 40+ FV grade would’ve ranked him in the 700-800 range on a prospect list entering the season, if I went that deep, and Soler was 14th.
I had FVs for the Korean and Cuban pro imports (Kang, Castillo, Tomas) before the season, but didn’t put them on the prospect lists for a number of reasons, mainly that they were seen as finished products for the most part, undermining the concept of a prospect list. Olivera was a 55 FV before the season.
Some in the game categorize successful big-league players as those with and without prospect hype. Corey Kluber and Gerrit Cole are giving their teams similar value this year and one of them was a top prospect in his age group at around 17 and every year since then, while the other could’ve been acquired for little until he turned 27 and emerged as an asset. One of the first things I wrote for FanGraphs was admitting this sort of player (and others) often are overlooked. This kind of list and others like it trying to capture true talent level and upside will help you more quickly notice when a Matt Duffy, Matt Carpenter or Matt Shoemaker is emerging, since you can notice when he starts passing hyped prospects that you’d otherwise just assume are better without investigating.
This list is also another way to attempt to get things more transparent and accountable with my rankings. The Duffy/Soler example is more of an outlier than an example of a blind spot (or so I think right now), but it’s a perfect example of the sort of thing at which the rankings media doesn’t re-visit often enough.
There are some articles out there that rank young big leaguers, to try to fill some of the vacuum for scouting content about these players, but even then, they are almost never graded so you could compare them to current prospects. Soon, I’l be grading all the big leaguers on this PV/FV scale so you can compare the present and possible futures for players at all levels, something that someone should’ve done a long time ago.
| Current | 2014 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | Age | Org | PV | FV | FV | Rank | |
| 1 | Carlos Correa | SS | 20.9 | Astros | 65 | 75 | 65 | 5 |
| 2 | Kris Bryant | 3B | 23.6 | Cubs | 70 | 75 | 70 | 1 |
| 3 | Noah Syndergaard | RHS | 23.0 | Mets | 60 | 70 | 60 | 20 |
| 4 | Kyle Schwarber | C/LF | 22.5 | Cubs | 60 | 65 | 60 | 22 |
| 5 | Joc Pederson | CF | 23.3 | Dodgers | 60 | 65 | 60 | 12 |
| 6 | Francisco Lindor | SS | 21.8 | Indians | 55 | 65 | 60 | 15 |
| 7 | Miguel Sano | 3B | 22.3 | Twins | 50 | 65 | 60 | 16 |
| 8 | Addison Russell | SS | 21.6 | Cubs | 50 | 65 | 65 | 3 |
| 9 | Carlos Rodon | LHS | 22.7 | White Sox | 50 | 65 | 65 | 9 |
| 10 | Jung-Ho Kang | SS | 28.4 | Pirates | 55 | 60 | 50 | — |
| 11 | Maikel Franco | 3B | 23.0 | Phillies | 55 | 60 | 55 | 39 |
| 12 | Lance McCullers | RHS | 21.9 | Astros | 55 | 60 | 50 | 127 |
| 13 | Blake Swihart | C | 23.4 | Red Sox | 45 | 60 | 60 | 10 |
| 14 | Eduardo Rodriguez | LHS | 22.4 | Red Sox | 45 | 60 | 60 | 24 |
| 15 | Matt Duffy | 3B | 24.6 | Giants | 55 | 60 | 40+ | — |
| 16 | Jorge Soler | RF | 23.5 | Cubs | 45 | 60 | 60 | 14 |
| 17 | Andrew Heaney | LHS | 24.2 | Angels | 50 | 55 | 55 | 51 |
| 18 | Raisel Iglesias | RHS | 25.6 | Reds | 55 | 55 | 55 | 63 |
| 19 | Steven Souza | RF | 26.3 | Rays | 50 | 55 | 55 | 53 |
| 20 | Devon Travis | 2B | 24.5 | Blue Jays | 50 | 55 | 45+ | 173 |
| 21 | Vince Velasquez | RHS | 23.2 | Astros | 50 | 55 | 55 | 76 |
| 22 | Michael Taylor | CF | 24.4 | Nationals | 50 | 55 | 50 | 134 |
| 23 | Daniel Norris | LHS | 22.3 | Tigers | 40 | 55 | 60 | 18 |
| 24 | Joe Ross | RHS | 22.2 | Nationals | 50 | 55 | 45 | — |
| 25 | Matt Wisler | RHS | 22.9 | Braves | 45 | 55 | 55 | 42 |
| 26 | Kevin Plawecki | C | 24.5 | Mets | 45 | 55 | 55 | 41 |
| 27 | Enrique Hernandez | SS | 24.0 | Dodgers | 50 | 55 | 50 | — |
| 28 | Jake Lamb | 3B | 24.9 | D’Backs | 50 | 55 | 45+ | 173 |
| 29 | Randal Grichuk | CF | 24.0 | Cardinals | 50 | 55 | 45+ | 173 |
| 30 | Andrew Susac | C | 25.4 | Giants | 45 | 50 | 50 | 87 |
| 31 | Nate Karns | RHS | 27.7 | Rays | 50 | 50 | 40+ | — |
| 32 | Taylor Jungmann | RHS | 25.7 | Brewers | 50 | 50 | 45 | — |
| 34 | Dilson Herrera | 2B | 21.5 | Mets | 45 | 50 | 50 | 110 |
| 35 | Rusney Castillo | CF | 27.9 | Red Sox | 45 | 50 | 55 | — |
| 36 | J.T. Realmuto | C | 24.4 | Marlins | 45 | 50 | 45 | — |
| 33 | Chris Heston | RHS | 27.4 | Giants | 50 | 50 | 35+ | — |
| 37 | Yasmany Tomas | LF | 24.8 | D’Backs | 45 | 50 | 50 | — |
| 38 | Mike Foltynewicz | RHS | 23.9 | Braves | 40 | 50 | 55 | 70 |
| 39 | Roberto Perez | C | 26.7 | Indians | 45 | 50 | 40 | — |
| 40 | Robbie Ray | LHS | 23.9 | D’Backs | 45 | 50 | 45 | — |
| 41 | James McCann | C | 25.2 | Tigers | 45 | 50 | 45 | — |
| 42 | Dalton Pompey | CF | 22.7 | Blue Jays | 35 | 50 | 50 | 81 |
| 43 | Alex Gonzalez | RHS | 23.6 | Rangers | 40 | 50 | 60 | 28 |
| 44 | Anthony DeSclafani | RHS | 25.3 | Reds | 45 | 50 | 45 | — |
| 45 | Eddie Butler | RHS | 24.4 | Rockies | 35 | 50 | 55 | 43 |
| 46 | Roberto Osuna | RHR | 20.5 | Blue Jays | 45 | 50 | 50 | 120 |
| 47 | Michael Lorenzen | RHS | 23.6 | Reds | 35 | 50 | 50 | 89 |
| 48 | Trevor May | RHS | 25.9 | Twins | 45 | 50 | 45 | — |
| 49 | Aaron Sanchez | RHR | 23.1 | Blue Jays | 40 | 50 | 55 | 71 |
Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.
great post kiley, as a nats fan i am really excited about robles, with how well he has done in short season as an 18 year old, can you see him finishing this season among the top 25 going into next year?
As a Braves fan, Ross is the one who has my strict, undivided attention.
Kiley,
Appreciate the work…
IYO are Amir Garrett or Cody Reed projecting as anywhere close to 55 FV at this time?
Thank you
Always an exciting thing to think about. Let’s go J.P. Crawford!
Excellent work yet again, thanks Kiley!
Was Josh Bell close to making it in the 55 range?
He was given a 50 this offseason and continued to hit well in AA/AAA. I’d assume he’s still at a minimum a 50. So yes he was close.
well thanks I guess. I know where he was ranked, just curious about what Kiley has heard this summer (ie 55 or 50)
I think the lack of power is keeping him from being in that top 25. Dude is raking it, just not over the fence. He looks like a future batting champion to me.
But, of course, so did James Loney.
Power matters, especially at 1B.
Thanks much for the work.
Now when does the top 30 prospects for each team come out?
Next week right?
Awesome!
Also, Kiley, can you combine all of lists into one comprehensive one? Would be handy for seeing all the the young talent at a glance.
Any plans for top International prospects list?
Great post, but are you expecting major regression from McCullers? He seems like he’s already pitching above that 55 level. 9+ k per 9 innings. Close to 3 bb per 9. Sub 3 fip. 2.0 war in less than 80 innings.
And legit reasons, with the improvement in stuff, why his major league numbers are better than the minor league numbers.
excellent job!! where would Conforto fit on your lists? Didn’t see him anywhere
It says right in the article that Conforto just missed that top-26.
55s for all!!!!!
Kiley your top 26 seems to have an error as it doesn’t include Anderson Espinoza on it. He should be list at #1. Thanks.
This list also has a blind spot for recent callups, no? Mariners SS Ketel Marte is in the majors, has not yet lost his rookie eligibility, was not recently drafted, and is not a top-26 prospect, but I’d imagine he’d be on the pop-up list had he not been called up. Correct? Or does he not merit the pop-up list due to a sub-50 FV?
perhaps he’s not good at baseball
He might be a 45+ guy.
What I think is interesting is that in the out-of-200 to 50+ category, the Cardinals, Tigers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Astros each have 2, and the Astros would have 3 had they not traded Nottingham. That seems like a highly improbably concentration for this sort of leap to be random given that the list is only 17 names deep. Methinks there’s a big drafting / player dev story here.
The Jays also wouldve had 3 had they not traded Labourt to the Tigers in the Price deal
speaking of which, it’s a bit surprising to see a 21yr old kid with a 5.22era, 4.31fip, 18.2k%, and 1.5k/bb in A+ anywhere near this list, imo.
Another interesting angle is that the Giants have 3 of the top 31 in the graduated table, all 50+ FV, where two were seen as 40 FV or less last season. As it is one thing to have prospects of 50+, but to have three producing at the major league level at 45-55 PV is another thing.
my confidence in projectability has been destroyed by Panik, Duffy and Heston.
You could argue that these prospects never got the attention they deserved. Maybe they were always 50+ but overshadowed by prospects hire up on the lists. Blue Jays, Atros, red Sox & Cardinals have had a handful of guys graduate & do much better than expected! Seeing how much success guys like correa, McCullers, springer, Sanchez, Osuna, Travis, Piscotty, Betts, Boegaerts, JBjr. Probably led Scouts to go back re-evaluate some of the other guys.
Correa was the #1 overall pick… not sure why his success would lead scouts to go back and re-evaluate anything. Springer, McCullers, Piscotty, and Bradley Jr. were all first rounders. Those are not surprises.
Did Chi Chi Gonzalez not make the Graduated Prospects list? His pre-season FV was 60; has it dropped to under 50 now?
Chi Chi hit 55.0 innings last night after tossing 6.0. I am guessing that Kiley’s data had him at 49.0 and therefore as not having “graduated” yet…
cause he is terrible
He’s listed as Alex Gonzalez, #43 on the “Lost Eligibility” list.
I understand he is young for his level, but as a bat-first prospect with a 4.9bb% and 108wrc+ in A ball, how can Rafael Devers be ranked a top 20 prospect in all baseball?
I think Kiley has repeatedly said that minor league numbers are almost meaningless to his approach.
kiley created the word SaberScout to describe himself.
Which is why it makes sense that he’s ignoring BB% in Low-A, haha. It gets almost completely disregarded in KATOH.
KATOH’s update knocks Devers down a bit this year, not up like the scouting rankings.
Beer and Nachos, man.
KATOH can’t see that an 18 year old boy playing full season ball for the first time essentially hit a wall after 80 games.
good call Pirates Hurdles.
Kiley actually has him lower than Baseball America (#15), Baseball Prospectus (#15), John Sickels (#18), and Keith Law (#8).
true. it’s not just a kiley thing.
What I mean to say is, how can Devers, a Red Sox, be good?
Fuck off.
Because he has loud tools. Great hit tool and power. With is pretty rare combo nowadays
Not this again.
he’s shown oppo power as a youngin’, which is a good sign he will get to most if not all his raw power in games as he gets older.
Having seen both Devers and Moncada in person, I would have swapped the two on Kylie’s list. Devers is by far the more professional hitter, with rare comfort in driving the ball to any part of the field along with superior bat control and contact skills. He will drive the other way on an outside pitch whereas Moncada prefers to pull everything. I realize how insane it sounds, but Devers is not a 20 PV, as I believe that he could hit ~.250 in the major leagues as an 18 year old. He is that advanced at the plate. Despite the low walk rate, he doesn’t chase pitches out of the zone. He takes balls, he’s just so gifted at contacting the ball that it’s going to be rare for him to have four consecutive pitches within an at-bat that he doesn’t put in play.
Essentially what I’m saying is that Rafael Devers is an extremely rare talent (and as an Orioles fan it makes me nauseous that Boston has him). Robinson Cano and Pablo Sandoval comparisons have been tossed around, with Cano being more similar at the plate but Sandoval being more similar physically (not in terms of a current weight issue, just lower body thickness) For me, Devers at #20 is insanely low given how depleted the minor leagues are currently. The only guys I would put ahead of him are Buxton, Seager, and maybe Giolito.
Awesome stuff, Kiley!
2 questions: How is Bryant presently a 70?
And how is Kike Hernandez a future 55 while Grichuk also a future 55? That seems a little generous for Kike, no?
Bryant is really good at baseball. Watch him play…
He’s whiffing 30% of his plate appearances… he isn’t hitting for near enough power to justify that… certainly not to be a 70 now. Maybe 60 I could see.
He’s on pace for over 5 WAR (or at least was) which is borderline superstar. The reason why I said watch (and not just scout the stat line, which I’m not accusing you of) is that while he has slumped, he’s also shown the ability to adjust, he walks a lot, and has shown decent speed. I admit I was surprised when I saw 70… but a 70 grade pretty much is borderline superstar.
If Kris Bryant is a 70 PV, then a lot of players are a 70. Not saying KB isn’t a very good player right now, but that’s a really generous grade. He’s 124 RC+ and he’s no ++ 3Bman defensively. He’s not more than a 60 PV.
I mean, call him whatever you want, but he’s 18th in baseball in WAR for position players.
A lot of players are 70 PV, and that’s because it’s the major leagues. The distribution of PV and FV scores between the minors and the majors is very very different.
Y’all have been real spoiled by Mike Trout. That 100 PV player aside, Bryant is on pace to have the best rookie season by WAR since Longoria in 2008, and to finish this season around the same mark as Giancarlo Stanton, Matt Carpenter, Nolan Arenado, and Miguel Cabrera. 70 does not mean once-in-a-lifetime; 70 means very good. Kris Bryant is very good.
On another note, Matt Duffy deserves more attention.
We have a “Y’all” sighting.
Citing WAR while not acknowledging his ridiculously high BABIP, especially for an extreme FB hitter, is intellectually dishonest. This is why WAR is not a good stat to base arguments on. It needs support from underlying metrics, and Bryant doesn’t have that.
Bryant’s BABIP is high, to be sure, but not absurdly high. Especially not absurdly high for someone who makes good contact and is second in BsR only to Billy Hamilton.
I believe the general rule of thumb is that each “10” on a rating is supposed to be conceptually equivalent to 1 SD in a statistical distribution, with 50 as “ordinary ML”. The translation doesn’t work neatly because talent is not even close to a bell curve, but if it were, 2 SD would put one in the top 2.5%. With 750 players on active 25-man rosters, if one assumes half are position players, the top 2.5% would reach to the 9th-best position player. 65 / 1.5 SD would reach to the top-25 position players
Bryant is currently 17th among hitters in WAR, and at 4.3 is the same distance away from 9th (Posey, 4.9) as he is from 25th (Carpenter, 3.7) by both rank and difference in WAR. Calling him a “70” is rounding up but 100% legitimate.
kike has played 6 positions in the bigs, probably average to above at all while hitting pretty dang well. he might even be low.
I am guessing his stellar defense and base running have something to do with it. He is playing true 5-tool ball right now.
And Preston Tucker is not a future 50?? I find that hard to swallow.
perhaps you should spit…
I root for the guy, but he is plain old bad defensively, even in LF. His stick is definitely >50, but the whole package is not first division starter unless he makes huge strides in the field. UZR/150, DRS, and (my subjective) eyeball test all say you lose somewhere between a half and a full win putting him in the field.
He’s a DH, and to be >50 as a DH you need to mash. His stick is good but not that good
There’s a prospect for Giants with the name of Lucius Fox? I totally dig that.
you really don’t pay attention to july 2 stuff eh
Just admiring a name. You really don’t pay attention to a name that evokes funky bass lines, dark chocolate, and soulful beats? Mm, you’re missing real beauty, Obvious.
Batman….
Red Sox have signed pitcher Austin Glorius, who once hit 5 hrs in high school, and has looked good so far, though not as good as his name.
It exciting to see all those Mariners on your lists!
I taught you well.
I think it’s incredible how terrible this season has been for the Ms. Everyone focuses on the disappointing performances on the ML club, but the Ms have had an even worse year in the farm system. Besides Marte, all of their top prospects have had bad years. This has been a TERRIBLE season for th Ms.
The only good thing is that it will hopefully spur change in the front office.
Right now it looks like we won’t even get that. Mediocrity, your name is the Mariners.
“I had FVs for the Japanese and Cuban pro imports (Kang, Castillo, Tomas) before the season”
minor nit, but Kang is Korean.
Willson Contreras??
he be old. still raw as a catcher but the contact ability is nice. i’d guess back end top 100 guy.
He’s 23.
Back end of 100 would have him show up here with FV50, so Kiley must only think he’s 45FV
23 is old for AA from a guy in the organization so long. considering he’s basically 24 in AAA next year.
He’s got Jose DeLeon, 23 in AA, 5th on that pop up list.
this is de leon’s third year in their system. i wanna say it’s like year 6 for conteras.
keep in mind conteras has no real stand out tools. he has an excellent arm and some decent raw power. this is first year his hit tool has flashed anything.
And also that Jose De Leon’s stuff absolutely exploded this year.
So, none of the Yankees signees from the july deadline are worthy?
Kiley,
Do you still have Correa at a future 65? Cause I think hes already a 60… man
nm, hadnt made it to the bottom
Started from the bottom, now we here.
You have Jose De Leon in the group that you say would be in the top 100-150 range. Other people’s midseason rankings have had De Leon in the top 30. Do you think he’s more in the 100 range? Somewhere in between?
55 FV’s started at 29 for him last year. so i think 25-75 is a reasonable assumption for where de leon will be.
No Eddie Rosario on the graduated list? Having a very solid season and he was always a decently regarded prospect coming up.
Yeah, I wonder where he would grade out at? I can see how he’d be behind all of these names, and not grading as a 50 or 55. Can you give a guesstimate of what his PV/FV is? His defense has been very good at all 3 OF spots.
With the bat, he has shown more power than anticipated and makes decent contact. Now, the guy is allergic to taking walks, and has struggled terribly vs LHP’s, but overall has been decent surprise.
Why is Duffy presumed to be so near his ceiling already (55 PV, 60 FV) when he obviously has a lot of room to fill out and hit for more power, when his minor league numbers suggest he’ll likely walk more and steal more bases going forward too, and when he has untapped defensive value on top of that as a guy who was a SS until this year and by all accounts a perfectly capable one? It’s great that these lists accommodate a guy like Duffy who came out of nowhere but it doesn’t feel like there’s been a true reassessment of his potential based on the tools he’s displayed.
Why would you expect a 24-year-old to fill out and add more power? Especially one who was extremely conspicuous for his lack of power in college.
Even if you’re right and there is room for optimism, he’s also hitting like a guy with a 70 hit tool. The hit tool, being so hard to project, could just as easily regress. So, to think Duffy will get better, you have to think what:
-his amazing hit tool will not regress
-his already highly-rated defense will get better
-this guy, who is hitting for more power than he ever has, will hit for more power
“This kind of list and others like it trying to capture true talent level and upside will help you more quickly notice when a Matt Duffy, Matt Carpenter or Matt Shoemaker is emerging”
I think the name is also a pretty good tip-off to this pattern, too.
For fun,
top 7 WAR names, current season, out of top 100 qualified batters and pitchers:
Rk. total WAR*
1. 40 Mike/Michael
2. 24.4 Chris/Kris
3. 13.3 Jose
4. 10.7 Matt
5. 10.3 Jason
6. 9.7 Brandon
7. 9.6 Josh
*may not be 100% accurate because I did this quickly for fun
And even if one excludes the Micheal’s from the Mike’s they still have the most valuable name in baseball by about ~12
Seriously, though, a question for Kylie if he’s still around.
With Panik’s huge surge in value, Duffy’s emergence out of nowhere, and now Kelby Tomlinson’s perfectly cromulent call-up/fill-in performance, do you feel like there’s somewhat of an industry “blind spot” around how the Giants evaluate their own internal talent and if so, what could it be?
This happens with lots of teams over the years. You really need a much larger sample before making a case like this. There are a few teams where a much better case of beating projections could be made.
Also, a 25 year old having a good 28 PAs doesn’t really mean…. anything.
Well, there’s one team where a much, much better case could be made.
Damn those Cardinals.
Begrudgingly, that was the first team I thought of.
Well, it’s not just these recent guys. This blind spot has been running a long time, over 10 years now, back to Cain draft. And basically, the industry view, as espoused by consensus ranking services like BA, has viewed most Giants picks as at least a bit of an overdraft, if not multiple rounds early.
While people did like Cain, for most of his minor league years, each year the Dodgers would have a prospect who was considered better than he was, and yet each year, Cain was still around to be beaten out by the next Dodgers wunderkind, and he even outlasted the last one, Billingsley, in terms of what he has done as a major leaguer.
Lowry was not thought of much either, and he was a good pitcher for a number of years until a rare injury ended his career.
Most thought Lincecum was a reliever, not a two-time Cy Young winner.
Sandoval was barely thought of as a Giants prospect, in fact he didn’t even make the BA Giants Top 30 prospect list the year he broke out.
Romo was ignored by everyone, much like Jonathan Sanchez. Though they might have been on a Giants prospect list somewhere, they were never highly thought of.
Even Posey and Bumgarner were not regarded as highly as they have performed for the Giants. Posey was seen as a Gold Glove C with a good bat, but at best average power (15-20 HR was viewed as his peak, and he beat that in his first partial season) and he has clearly beat that FV. Bumgarner was viewed as an overdraft by some, and only the Giants said that he would make the majors in two seasons, which he did.
Then you get into the recent era. First with Belt and Crawford, Belt was viewed as an under-powered 1B overdraft but once he started knocking the stuffing out of the ball, suddenly everyone saw him coming and was on the bandwagon, and Crawford was always viewed for his defense, not his offense. Next with Panik, who in the view of the most strident prospect expert, was no more than a utility player. Plus Duffy and Susac, got their starts last season but nobody really put them on any radar, and Duffy flew up the charts this season, and Susac looking good as a future starting C.
So it is not just recent history, the prospect industry has been at odds with the Giants evaluation of prospects for a long time now, and it is the greater frequency of the recent hits that gets the attention now vs. earlier (which I would say coincides with John Barr leaving the Dodgers and joining the Giants as our VP of Player Development; I like to say that we got the better of the “trade” of Colletti and Conte to the Dodgers for Barr, I fear losing him all the time).
You would have gotten the better of a “Colletti for potpourri” trade.
While I’m not going to deny that the Giants have had a greater ratio of prospect output to prospect rating than most teams, what I will say is that, if you look at the top players in baseball, you will find that a very high percentage of them were not rated as highly as prospects as they could have been. Any prospect ranker worth listening to will be pretty conservative. Projecting players to become FV 75’s everywhere is a great way to lose all credibility.
Taking Posey as an example: projecting a player to be a good defensive catcher who hits 15-20 homers is projecting a guy to be a 4-5 WAR player. That is pretty easily enough to be top-5 is basically any prospect class. If someone had come along and said “no I think posey will hit 25-30 homers and have a 75 hit tool”, he would have been right, but at the same time, the willingness to make that kind of projection of a prospect will backfire way more often than not.
Mike Trout was the #1 overall prospect in baseball, and he was extremely underrated, because you’d have to be crazy to project a guy to be Mike Trout.
Agreed on Posey, I was debating whether to include his example or not. If it was just him, I would not have bothered, but I thought it would be better to include him as the thesis is that the baseball world view prospects differently than the Giants, and it appeared to me that even Posey was missed on some.
In addition, there are degrees of projections. While I agree totally with your great example of Mike Trout (sadly, I can recall rumors of the Giants being interested in him with the Wheeler pick), I would offer up the pre-draft projections of Matt Weiters as an example to support my decision to include Posey as an example.
I am well acquainted with Weiters because I was hoping he would fall to the Giants in his draft, much like how Lincecum fell. Basically, the prospects raters rated Weiters as HITTER-defense and Posey as HITter-DEFENSE. They viewed Weiters as a more complete hitter with good power, basically what Posey is doing now, with OK defense (due to his size hampering him), whereas Posey was an offensive catcher who had Gold Glove potential defense. So I would not view what was said about Weiters as, as you kind of put it, going out on a limb, but that was what Posey turned out to be.
In fact, back in 2012, one could have said that the projections where reversed. Posey was hitting like Weiters was projected to be, while his defense was OK but not Gold Glove (of course, that was because of the 2011 injury and the lack of framing information), while Weiters, while hitting well, for a catcher, was playing high value, Gold Glove level defense.
Anyway, I see your point, nobody would be crazy enough to project Posey as a future MVP player, but to my point, prospect projection practices were not that far out there to project Weiters as what Posey eventually became, making my point that Posey, while projected to be good, turned out to be much better than his projection.
This seems a good point here to note that an analysis of manager’s effects on acquired hitters (in a book by a writer here, Jaffe) found that hitters joining Bochy teams ended up adding, on average, one WAR more than expected. And following up on my point about Barr joining the Giants, Bochy actually joined around the same time, so perhaps this is partly his influence as well.
In any case, whatever his influence was on established MLB hitters that would enable them to produce more once under his influence, this same skill would presumably to applied to young prospects joining the Giants under Bochy as well. And looking back at Posey’s minors, his burst of power didn’t happen until he joined the MLB team in 2010, his power was middling in the minors, projecting out to what prospect rankers were thinking, he didn’t have his hockey stick moment until the majors.
And for me, it would depend on the potpurri. I’m allergic to lavender, which I discovered over time when my wife used to put that potpurri in our main bathroom, and I would be sneezing for years until I made the connection and got her to get rid of that.
How about we make it Colletti for a Costco sized package of toilet paper? :^)
Considering how Wieters was viewed, if both Posey and Wieters were available to the Giants, I feel like they just as easily could have taken Wieters. However, at that point we’d have to throw out the assumption that Wieters and Posey would have had the same career paths that they ended up having.
To me, what seems much more likely that the idea that evaluators just constantly miss on Giants prospects is the possibility that the Giants have figured out some sort of Cardinals-esque thing with regard to player development that gets the the most out of some of these players. That is much more plausible that some sort of systemic bias against the Giants, or even a systemic blind spot to some particular skillset the Giants have identified.
weiters was called mauer with power in college.
I think the Giants view low power, high contact hitters as the current market inefficiency. There’s certainly luck involved to land on a Panik and Duffy back to back, but it’s not just luck. The Giants have been going out of their way to acquire guys like this since around 2010, first having success with veteran pickups like Sanchez, Pagan and Scutaro (and Aoki this year) and now starting to churn them out of their farm as well. Not that there haven’t been misfires also (Gary Brown immediately comes to mind) but overall I’d say they’re on to something.
I mostly agree with your comment. I would note that while Duffy is clearly luck, the Giants bucked industry opinion by selecting Panik with their first round pick, when most saw him more as a mid-supplemental first round, and more like second rounder, and thus their drafting of him there was roundly lambasted. They made sure that they got their man, by overdrafting, which they have done all through Sabean’s reign as the top guy.
I would add that high contact hitters is, to my thought, the bigger trend that the Giants have focused on in recent years (as I noted above, since Barr joined the team). Molina, Renteria, Huff, Theriot, as well as Sanchez, Pagan, Scutaro, and Aoki, were relatively high contact hitters we acquired. Even McGehee was a borderline good contact hitter, he was at 83% contact rate last season.
And I would note that Blanco, Arias, and Chris Stewart had high contact history in the minors, and carried some of that to the majors at times.
And we didn’t even cover Giants farm products. Sandoval, Posey and Panik are the biggest examples, plus Hector Sanchez and Ehire Adrianza showed such talents in the minors. Not all have made it, but I think this shows that there has been a clear focus on contact hitters basically since Barr joined the organization.
Meanwhile, on the flip side, the Giants focus on pitching has been on pitchers who can induce weak contact, and teaching the tools for attaining that. While not the same as contact rate, obviously inducing weak contact is the goal of any pitcher, whether fireballer or soft-tosser.
rabble rabble rabble rabble
Guessing Dilson Herrera was an accidental ommission from the Graduate list? Where do you peg him these days? Altuve Lite? 55?
Herrerra hasn’t graduated…
Yes he has! Overlooked him and he was one of the 4 guys I added to the 4th list that I overlooked on eligibility clerical errors.
Huh, so it’s just 130 overall AB, not 130 in a single season?
Yes.
I see Dominic Smith was on the 45+ list in the pre-season top 200. Is he now a 50 or no? I see Gavin Cecchini is up to a 50, so he’s now top 200 level for next year.
Drool. Love this stuff.
Has Tim Anderson’s stock somehow taken a hit?
He was a 60 FV before the season, and he’s put up a 118 wRC+ with 46 steals while doubling his BB% and continuing to cut his K%.
maybe concern the raw power will never show.
Yes, this is great fun, thanks. I have two observations. 1) 8 of the 19 position players are short stops– it seems defensive value is weighted very heavily. Crawford would probably make the top 26 even if, say, he were shifted to the OF. Any of the others? 2) I don’t understand why Mazara gets so much more love than Nick Williams- their stat profiles are very similar and, if anything, Williams seems to have more raw power. I’m personally betting on Williams but I’m curious why Kiley and other scouts don’t rank them more closely.
Thanks for the interesting analysis. This makes the Giants look pretty good, with a number of notable placements.
First, wow, Lucius Fox is #16 among players signed in June/July, that was a pretty big signing by the Giants when it happened, but now we can see how big compared relative to other IFA signings (no other) and the draft signings. Of course, he was one of those rare IFA signing who was scouted for the amateur draft first, since that was what he was eligible for previously, so a lot more could be said about his future prospects than most other IFAs.
And the Giants have 3 of the top 31 graduated prospects with Duffy, Heston, and Susac. In addition, all three have FV of 50-60, which, if they can reach that, means that they would continue to be significant contributors in 2016 and beyond.
And this don’t include Strickland or Osich either, who both have contributed nicely as relievers this season, and look to be core components of the bullpen for the next 3-6 years.
Were you implying there are no other July 2 guys on the list? cause Dodgers’ Yadier Alvarez is there.
never mind i don’t know why i read it that way
Actually, you were correct, I missed his name. So amended, one other IFA. Thanks.
Great piece. Wondering why Eddie Rosario doesn’t make your graduated prospects list. Basically a 3.0 WAR player over a full season. 83 games at 1.7 WAR, playing full time.
BABIP-fueled and poor plate discipline, along with corner outfield fit. Not sure he can replicate this next year. Also concerns about makeup don’t make me feel better about him.
Danny Santana of ’14=Eddie Rosario of ’15? They seem to be eerily similar in bb%, kk%, and bapip. Is this chance, or is this a type of player the Twins either like, or that they are not developing guys to have a better approach and take walks, i.e. Walker?
Thanks for the response, Kiley. BABIP-fueled? Check Schwarber, Duffy, Grichuk, Tomas, Butler, Soler, Butler and Hernandez. All higher BABIPs than Rosario and I wouldn’t rate any of them as having greater speed. Makeup? What, he got caught smoking pot as a 21-year old? He’s been a very consistent 23-year old rookie.
Poor plate discipline is the one area he needs to improve. I suspect he’ll never get to great levels but he can certainly get to 6%BB and 20%K while being a 15HR/20SB player. And he can field.
Does that put him in Bryant’s class? Of course not. But he certainly comps with the majority of your list.
I have to ask about Joe Musgrove. He was unranked in your preseason Top-200, and isn’t one of those 18 players you listed who has improved enough to be in there now. Is he really not a top-200 prospect? 6’5″, 255, throwing in the mid to high 90s, with a 99/8 K/BB ratio across 100.2 innings over three minor league levels. He’s had injury problems in the past, and some minor ones this year, but he’s still just 22 pitching in AA.
With his pedigree, I sort of assumed he’d be a backend top 100 guy entering next year. Am I reading too much into his performance?
More solid than spectacular, 45 or 45+ FV, projects reasonably as 4th starter.
this is great, thank you. Only question that pops up is why the downgrade for Addison Russell?
He hasn’t made adjustments at the plate yet in the bigs
Really Billy Burns doesn’t make the in season grade while leading rookies in a bunch of categories, and some amazing highlight reel plays? And Chapman doesn’t pop-up with his big question being in game power going into the season, and he is slugging almost 600?
Chapman was on the top 200 as a 45+. He’s a 50 now, but didn’t qualify for that second list.
Standard for 50 is 2.0 WAR if you want to use numbers. Not sure Burns gets there this year or next year, thus he’s a solid 45 or 45+ FV reserve that can start at times.
No Joe Musgrove on the pop up list?
Also want to note this… I think Kiley will have him at least a 50 by his rankings.
What about Mallex Smith? I think a bump from 45 to 50 FV could be argued for a guy who’s shown he can do just about everything Dee Gordon or Billy Hamilton (good BH) can from the leadoff spot.
I also hope to Austin Riley on these lists in the near future.
Where is Aaron Nola? Surely he’s either one of the top 50 rookies or a top 25 prospect.
Why do you prefer Giolito to Urias? Appears that Urias is younger, had few arm surgeries, more present value, and is left handed. To boot you rated them both 65 FV. I’m curious what the difference is?
Probably bigger stuff, a better frame and the fact that he’s pitched more than 6 innings in a game.
Did Lewis Brinson get any consideration?
Yep, would’ve landed in 27-35 area. Had made lots of improvements since signing. Here’s a video of his from this year and then from HS in the same video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RR-tHu3R4Ak
Also, if you’re curious about some player not listed above that you think is a top 50 prospect, I may have addressed him in today’s chat: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-prospects-chat-81915/
No mention of Mark Appel? He’s been pretty disappointing huh
How far off do you think Luis Ortiz is from the list? I have him as a 45/60 but he’s been shelved for a bit this season and not really sure what the plans are for the rest of the year, so I figure this might have worked against him but when he’s played he’s been dominant and has the aggressiveness to be a frontline starter.
Hey Kiley, fyi Pompey only has 122 mlb AB. He should not be on your graduated list.
I ran a quick correlation between 2014 and 2015 KATOH WAR’s. The R-squared value was around 25%. There is a so much change from one year to the next that the KATOH’s (and probably any minor league projections) that for me they may be somewhat fun but not much to hang your hat on.
Where would Gregory Polanco fit in here? Would he be on the lost eligibility list? Or does he no longer have the ceiling you once thought?
Polanco graduated last year, man.
Enrique Hernandez graduated last year
No he had only 121 ABs last year
Kind of surprised to see Souza ranked higher than both Taylor and Ross. Curious why. Thanks for the awesome analysis.
I like everything you did, except that maybe the draftees, pop up guys, and draftees could’ve been a separate subject. Right now we have the midseason top 26 and then some special categories, instead of the overall top 200.
I’m confused why fulmer and labourt both received a FV of 50.