Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 8/25/15

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll be back and start answering questions in a couple minutes.

Kiley McDaniel: Kiley is here and ready to chat with YOU

Comment From Bret
Not a pure prospect question, but definitely one about an exciting young player. Should the Jays have any apprehension about having Marcus Stroman return to the rotation in a few weeks if his rehab goes well?

Kiley McDaniel: The answer to any question about returning from an injury is1) they should be careful to not risk his future in coming back to soon
2) they know way more about his body than I do, so I can’t tell you much more than you already know

Comment From Xolo
Were he eligible, where would Javier Baez fall in your rankings?

Kiley McDaniel: I was always low on him–I think I put him in the teens a few years ago and people were telling me I was crazy to not put him in the top 5. He’d be a 50 or 55 at this point but I haven’t really thought about him much since he lost prospect eligibility and everyone I’ve talked to about him said he hasn’t made any adjustments…and makeup/coachability/attitude concerns are the reason I’ve always been the low one on him

Comment From DGarnerRTD
Mallex Smith seems like a 70+ speed guy that actually swings a nice bat and has reasonable plate discipline. Could he be Michael Bourn 2.0 even with his lesser pedigree?

Kiley McDaniel: Could be. He’s still in that area where his median result is a bit below that, but Bourn is definitely in play.

Comment From Joe
What’s Cody Ponce’s upside?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably #3 starter is best you can imagine, but he’s shown even better stuff in a one inning relief outing on the Cape last year. I’d project him as a #4 since the stuff backed up a bit this spring from the Cape and was 50’s and 55’s

Comment From Oren
In your awesome post a few weeks ago, you had a really high rating on Matt Duffy. From his profile though, he seems quite risky to me. He doesn’t walk much, isn’t a big time power hitter, and at least for now, looks like he’ll be a corner infielder. He’s having a great year because he’s hit for great average, but that has come with a high BABIP. Do you foresee him remaining a high average hitter going forward?

Kiley McDaniel: These are the kinds of guys that are tough to project: not a lot of tools/size/pedigree/track record, but perform at the big league level in a big season and not sure he can repeat it. If you ignore this year and just look at the regressed projections on his player page, they basically say he’s league average across the board on offense and brings some defensive value with the IF position, which means he’s at least a 50 FV/2 WAR guy if he’s a little worse than that. He’s already at 4 WAR this year, so I kinda split the difference and basically said I’ll call him a 2.5 WAR guy now that could be a 3 WAR guy again, but let’s call the 4 WAR thing a bit of an outlier.At some point, scouting reports at the big league level heavily rely on stats because they represent a whole season while any one scouting look is just an handful of games. There are exceptions, like one game into a new swing, the scouting is way more useful than the numbers, but when you start to get a bulk of performance…that’s basically what MILB scouting reports are trying to predict, so at some point you have to use the numbers to correct yourself if a player keeps performing.

Comment From District9
Kiley – who are the standouts coming out of Cap Cod Summer League?

Kiley McDaniel: Coming, along with Team USA, the guys that sat out the summer and the whole HS class in my updated draft rankings in a few weeks. Big pop up name was Mercer OF Kyle Lewis.

Comment From Charlie
Austin Riley whats his future power look like?

Kiley McDaniel: 55 raw and could get to it in games, so 19-22 homers roughly speaking

Comment From What do you make of Trea Turners ability to hit .300 in the minors. His BABIP was really high and he strikes out too much to do that in the pross right?
Trea Turner or JP Crawford?

Kiley McDaniel: Crawford: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…Turner has always been a contact guy that projects for .270 or so on talent, but his speed could allow the BABIP to play the average up a bit higher. Ideally, the K rate is below 20% and the BABIP is around .320 in the big leagues, but I’d say look for .250 or .260 in the early going with a few too many K’s.

Comment From The Giants Fanboy
What would be your ideal prospect would have? 80 hit but 50 power or 50 hit but 80 power? Can you explain why?

Kiley McDaniel: 80 everything duh

Comment From Hank
Do you think the Twins should call up Max Kepler and give him regular AB’s when rosters expand? He’s been murdering the ball in AA and it would be nice to get him some MLB at bats..

Kiley McDaniel: Sure, seems like a low-risk chance to see what he’s capable of for next year

Comment From Nick
What kind of ceiling does Piscotty have at the major league level, and has his performance thus far changed your opinion of that ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: he’s a 55-60 bat, 55 power, good defense type of right fielder. BABIP in inflated right now, but could see him developing into a 55-60 FV type guy worth 2.5 to 3 wins per year.

Comment From Dave H
I saw Joe Jiminez recently, and he looked like he could get major leaguers out. Should he be a candidate for the Tigers pen next spring?

Kiley McDaniel: He doesn’t have average command or a consistently above average breaking ball yet and he’s in Low-A, so probably not that advanced, but he could grow into a setup guy in a few years.

Comment From Tim
Groome and Pint are off the board when the Braves draft at #4. Puk and Rutherford are available. Who do they take and why?

Kiley McDaniel: I can tell you with 100% certainty that they don’t know yet.

Comment From Guest
I’ve always found the ‘hit’ tool to be quite vague and clearly hard to project. What are the bigger factors that go into determining a prospect’s hit tool? Both factors to affect their current ability and their future abilities.

Kiley McDaniel: Man are you in luck…or maybe the opposite of luck. I wrote a 6-part series about this question, 7 parts if you count the introductionhttp://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Rob
Wilson Contreras: has his monster year made him a legit prospect, or is it a flash in the pan? A 23 year old catcher with plus defense OPSing .900 in AA seems to be a sign of something good to come, no?

Kiley McDaniel: Has always had tools but this year added some skills to the mix. 45 FV right now, projects as good backup for me, but still a chance he could take another step forward. 45 means similar chance at 40 (low-end backup and 50 (low-end starter), with the 45 representing the most likely outcome.

Comment From Sean
Are you buying Zach Godley as a starter going forward?

Kiley McDaniel: Talked about him a lot on last week’s podcast. He was a totally generic Double-A reliever entering the year, so I’m not really sure what to make of his future

Comment From Ryan
Connor Greene has made the departure of Toronto’s top pitching prospects a little easier to handle (other than the obvious on field talent). I was wondering about your thoughts on Greene?

Kiley McDaniel: Tweeted about him when I saw him a few weeks ago. Easy arm action/delivery, 92-96, avg or better breaking ball and changeup, moved him up to 50 FV here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…I know of a few teams were asking about him prominently in trades

Comment From Justin F
Who’s the fastest mover from the second tier of young Greenville prospects, Chavis, Guerra, Kopech, Longhi?

Kiley McDaniel: Guerra. Advanced glove SS’s get rushed all the time, so hopefully the Red Sox don’t push him faster than the bat can handle

Comment From FireDrayton
Astros fans are starting to dream on Martes having a whiff of “K-Rod in 02”. Way or no way?

Kiley McDaniel: Stuff/frame/approach are all kinda similar. Full report/video coming on him either today or tomorrow. In relief, it would be a 70 or better fastball and 65-70 curveball with some idea where it’s going.

Comment From Tim
Amir Garrett: future big league starter or too soon to tell/need more time?

Kiley McDaniel: I would say yes, but not definitively

Comment From Mike
Buxton down to a 65FV – is that from injury risk, contact issues, other? Just wondering what to think of his future

Kiley McDaniel: Not a huge move as he’s still the 2nd best 65 FV, but yeah the injuries keep cropping up. Correa was a 65 pre-season due to his broken leg in 2014, then he started raking in the bigs and he’s a 75 now with a chance to be an 80.

Comment From pat
Thoughts on James Kaprelian’s ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: #3 starter, 2 60 pitch ceiling, but those pitches more often play 50-55 right now

Comment From Dan
Heard anything about Stone Garrett with Batavia? Looks like loud tools and plus power. Can’t find much on him, though. Chance at Miami’s top 10?

Kiley McDaniel: Saw him a lot in HS. average raw power, plus speed, quick twitch athlete but rough at the plate and iffy approach. Looks like he may have made some adjustments this year, I’ll have to look into that.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Have you had a chance to check out Ian Happ? If so, who does he resemble if he reaches his potential?

Kiley McDaniel: Projects as a switch-hitting, 55-60 hit, 55 power, squatty framed RF. Some slight chance at CF or 2B but not likely. Not really a good comp out there, but chance to be an above average everyday guy

Comment From Dortmund stinkt
Do you see Yoan Moncada as an infielder or outfielder long term?

Kiley McDaniel: 2B

Comment From Oren
Do you think Connor Greene can contribute to the Jays rotation in 2016?

Kiley McDaniel: in the 2nd half, maybe

Comment From Jonathan
Adonis Medina is sitting 91-94, but he was supposedly dynamite when relieving Kilome this spring (94-97). Is he just going to be one of those guys whose stuff ticks up a ton in relief? How projectible is he at this point, for you?

Kiley McDaniel: They’re both starters for the foreseeable future, still developing and improving. I’d take Kilome, but they’re both emerging into two of the better arms in the system

Comment From Barley
Any notable notes on prospects you’ve seen in the last week or two?

Kiley McDaniel: Saw Brandon Finnegan, Hector Olivera as the headliners in a AAA game last week. Finnegan’s stuff was down a bit but that’s to be expected when he’s getting stretched out and turning into a SP. Olivera needs to shorten up his swing a bit and he’s big but should be fine at 3B.Saw Rome-Asheville two days ago and the Asheville lineup was impressive. I like Dom Nunez and my guy Forrest Wall just keeps making the 30+ picks he lasted in the draft look like an awful decision…which is what I said would happen pre-draft http://www.scout.com/mlb/sc…

Comment From Kyle
Is next years draft better than the 2015 draft? If so, how much better?

Kiley McDaniel: Looks like yes. Sorting that out right now, though

Kiley McDaniel: This is what I wrote about the 2016 and 2017 classes before the summer http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From B
Does the GM make all decisions about promoting/demoting players at all levels of the organization? What information is used in making those decisions and where does it come from? What does the decision process look like?

Kiley McDaniel: Farm director technically makes the call, but for any sort of decent prospect, there’s lots of internal discussions before the move is made so that everyone is on the same page. It’s not very much stats and lots of figuring out if the kid can handle this mentally and things like that.

Comment From Sylvan
Desmond Lindsay didn’t have a terribly glowing reputation before the draft, but the Mets seemed thrilled to get him. Has he turned any heads in the GCL?

Kiley McDaniel: He was a 2nd-3rd rounder after last summer, but missed basically the entire spring with hamstring and other issues, so his name faded a bit but the tools are still there.

Kiley McDaniel: And he’s hitting, so all seems to be going well

Comment From jon
Should Brendan Rodgers be the first pick in a minors (fantasy) draft that only includes players from the 2015 class? Highest stats upside?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, but I consider Swanson a slightly better prospect. We’re talking like 25th prospect in baseball versus 40th though, so close enough you can prefer one or the other.

Comment From Justin F
Quickest to the majors from the 2015 draft class?

Kiley McDaniel: Tyler Jay or Carson Fulmer, both have a chance to jump quick as relievers. Fulmer could still get there first as just a starter.

Comment From scottschook
Thanks for the hosting the chat, Kiley. Who has the brightest future of the Cardinals’ first four position picks from this past draft: Plummer, Denton, Bader, or DeJong?

Kiley McDaniel: I like Denton a little more than Plummer, but they’re both in the same general area.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Abital Avelino has a 50 Runner grade, yet he has 50 sb on the season. Has his speed been under estimated or is he just a really good and aggressive baserunner?

Kiley McDaniel: I gave him a 50+ run grade, but yeah it’s something like that. Quick first step but not plus pure speed and A-Ball SB numbers are kinda useless. There have been more than a few 45 runners that steal 20+ bases in A-Ball.

Kiley McDaniel: Alrighty, see you guys next week