Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat, Top 200 Prospects Edition

Kiley McDaniel: I can’t start using catch phrases in the intro now, all these casual readers checking in for the first time will start expecting it. Gotta leave them wanting more.

Comment From Owen
I’m really mad about _______ being so low/not included on the list! Why do you hate my team?! LOUD NOISES!!!!!!

Kiley McDaniel: You were great in Wedding Crashers, don’t listen to what people say about your nose

Comment From Brian
Addison Russell was a 60FV on the Cubs list, now a 65 and #3 overall. As I cubs fan I love this, I get you broadened who you were getting information on for the top 200, etc. Any specific new information that raised your opinion/ranking on Russell? Or just general awesomeness?

Kiley McDaniel: No real new information. The Cubs list was early in the run and I knew Russell was behind Bryant, but didn’t have a great feel for how far or how the grades would dictate that. Turns out there weren’t many players between them.

Kiley McDaniel: That’s also the process that led to Ian Clarkin and Michael Taylor sneaking on the end of the list. Felt like just short of 50 FV, then I stacked up every player and they were both better than a handful of guys on the list…so they went on the list.

Comment From Nelson
Wow. And, thank you! tremendous job

Kiley McDaniel: Flattery will get you everywhere in this chat. Also, Jerry Seinfeld pictures.

Comment From Minnesota Twinkie
What do you think of Alex Meyer? When he does finally establish himself as a major leaguer, and will it be as a starter or in the bullpen?

Kiley McDaniel: I think he’s a shutdown closer and the grade reflects that. He’s a 55 FV and the best closer in the game is a 60 FV, so I’m projecting him to be one of the best. Still a chance he starts, but I don’t think that will last much longer. 80 FB, 70 SL in short stints from a 6’7 dude.

Comment From Guest
I looked and couldn’t find info on this: what factors explain the difference between raw and game power for a given player?

Kiley McDaniel: Raw power is how far you can hit it with a max effort BP swing. Some guys can replicate that in a game, most can’t. Sano, Bryant, Gallo all have 80 power or very close, but people shouldn’t expect 40 HRs (80 game power) from all of them. Since the readers here tend to be statistically inclined, I wanted to give them a proxy for HR output/SLG rather than just how far the ball goes.

If you’re asking why I don’t do that also for OBP, it’s becuase more teams do raw/game power on reports and none of them do a grade for OBP, so it would be hard to ask about the grade a scout used on a player I didn’t see. For that reason, I’ll project upside OBP for 50+ FV hitters on the prospect lists.

Comment From Reds fan in Portland
I thought Lorenzen was legit, what’s up with the 10 point FV drop in threeo months?

Kiley McDaniel: His grades should’ve made him a 55 FV when I wrote it and some scouts were a little more dubious in the wider top 200 emails than they were in the more limited Reds list emails. One good season, very short track record of starting, low K rate, but all the elements are still there.

Kiley McDaniel: And for the questions out there about why I ranked a guy higher/lower than another publication…I’m probably not going to answer them since I can’t speak for them. In most cases, the player in question has a full report explaining what I think on the team list or a shorter report on the top 200. So, navigate around via the player page and you’ll probably find your answer.

And no, I don’t know why I hate your team.

Comment From @outfieldgrass24
In the primer published yesterday, you said that you were higher on a few guys just because you had a good “feel” for them (paraphrasing). Who are a couple dudes you kind of stuck your neck out for as compared to other evaluators?

Kiley McDaniel: Albies seems to be the guy people keep telling me I’m the high guy on, but there’s a good shot people are comping him to Lindor at this point next year, so I feel good about that one…until something terrible happens and I disown him.

Comment From Mike
What has happened to Rafael Montero? He seems to have fallen far on your (and other writers’) lists. Was it something about his performance in LV/NY last year, or is this just prospect fatigue?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s another guy with underwhelming stuff/upside, like teammate Dilson Herrera, where you stack dudes up and are trying to mimic trade value and realize where the unexciting guy fits when all the other players are around him. Both of those could make me look bad, but I’m not the only one that thought they should be in the area that they’re in. The people valuing them in trades think so, too.

Comment From Aaron
Just wanted to say thanks! Oh, and why do you hate my team?

Kiley McDaniel: Answered this one a few questions ago. Thanks!

Comment From Thomas
Why is Olson only at a 45 FV after absolutely raking in 2014? Do you need to see more at a higher level?

Kiley McDaniel: The A’s list will be coming in a few days and Olson was an interesting guy to try to figure out. He was young for his level, raked in 2014 and has 60+ raw power. Scouts don’t love the bat speed, think he’s more of a mistake hitter that waits out lower level arms, think the body might go south and are super dubious of Cal League stuff. If he rakes again in AA, he’ll probably be a 50, but he’s backed into a corner w/a first base profile and he’s in A-Ball, so scouts can afford to be critical.

Comment From Jimmer
I know Trevor May already has 10 major league appearances, but where do you see him in the future for the Twins. Mid-rotation guy, higher? Eventually bullpen?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably back-end or reliever. Wrote about him on the Twins list here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Grant
Hey Kiley – How much of your evaluations are based on sources vs. your own eye? I was wondering specifically about Schwarber in the top 25, which is higher than most other outlets have him.

Kiley McDaniel: I saw Schwarber a lot after signing, so there’s definitely some of my opinion in there. I should say that for that 10-30 area, almost every person I talked to said I should move 5 to 7 guys up/down and not one said a negative thing about Schwarber there…he was in that spot the entire time.

In general, when I’ve seen a guy a lot, I’ve seen him as much as almost any scout has, so I’ll ask them to get background and confirm I saw him good/bad to get context…but I don’t really watch a guy for 5 games and have context and completely disagree with scouts…so that isn’t just one guy’s opinion when I say my opinion is in there.

Comment From Will
Let’s say that this time next year, Courtney Hawkins is a 50FV… What adjustments would he have made?

Kiley McDaniel: He’ll hit and not strikeout. That sounds overly simplistic but that’s about it, stop chasing the slider out of the zone and make more contact. Mostly mental at this point.

Comment From Alex
What do you think about Adam Conley? Will the stuff play out?

Kiley McDaniel: Stuff has varied year-to-year. If it’s there he’s a solid guy. If it’s not, he’s a generic up/down lefty with command issues.

Comment From Ryan C
Is Medieros’ SL dominant enough that he may only need those two pitches to be a SP?

Kiley McDaniel: Lower angle FB/SL dominant lefty has to have a good CH he can locate. Medeiros has shown flashes of being able to do that, so not worried about the stuff. More worried about the size/durability.

Comment From Cubbie
What have you been most impressed about with Bryant’s development? Did you expect him to struggle more than he has thus far? I remember hearing many concerns about how long his swing was coming out and there is still the concern about contract rate.

Kiley McDaniel: I thought there’s be more contact struggles, but he was 1 or 2 in that draft for almost everyone, so being really good isn’t a massive surprise. One team told me that if they drafted him, he’d still be playing CF for them now. He’s that athletic.

Comment From Miles
Not too high on Reese McGuire?

Kiley McDaniel: I like him, but catchers take longer and have more risk, he doesn’t come from a baseball hotbed and he’s a hit over power guy that didn’t really hit this year. Still think he’s good, it’ll just take awhile. You could call him #143 if you want.

Comment From Don
Can Barreto be a very fast rider through not only the minors but on prospect lists? Could a big 2015 give him a FV of 60+?

Kiley McDaniel: Unless he becomes a slam dunk SS that will be tough. Below avg power also limits how high he can get on these lists. He’s definitely about as high probability to be a big leaguer of some sort for a guy that hasn’t played full season ball yet.

Comment From jda
Was there anything specific you heard from sources that helped nudge Marcos Molina into Top 100 territory? I know he was very close to a 50 FV back when you did the Mets list, so it wasn’t a huge jump, but I’m still intrigued to read your take.

Kiley McDaniel: He was another guy that kept creeping up the list as emails rolled in about the list. Checks all the boxes for projectable arm with three pitches and command. He was in that glut with all the 1st round arms from the last draft, then separated himself from them late. His next two levels are very pitcher friendly, too, so the numbers could be really good.

Comment From RotoLando
It could have been the most amazing troll job of all time to just post links in the Top 200

Kiley McDaniel: Sigh. Next year.

Comment From Brian L
A) Amazing work. B) What changed with the astros -> braves prospects from astros club list to top 200? Ruiz and Folty appear to have jumped up relative to Velazquez & McCullers

Kiley McDaniel: Folty and McCullers are pretty similar, so that was a coinflip in the first place. Found more guys that believed in Folty as a starter after the trade when his name was being brought up in conversation more organically and obviously he’s closer.

The buzz on Velasquez’s medical is brutal and he finished poorly, with some speculation he was hurt in the AFL. With the inertia of injury, I had to move him back 30 spots or so from where he was before all that. I saw Ruiz for the first time in the AFL after the HOU list and was much more impressed with his bat than the more skeptical scouts that saw him in the Cal League were.

Comment From Oren
Hey Kiley – thanks for the amazing work. Question about Aaron Sanchez. You wrote about his improving secondary stuff, which is obviously a good sign for his prognosis as a starter, but does he have the delivery to make it all work and hold up? While the upside for him is obviously in the rotation, is the risk high enough that just letting him be great out of the bullpen right away is a viable solution going forward?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve always been the low guy on Sanchez. Some people asked why he “dropped” but I’ve had him in this range all along. The worry is that he gets his first extended MLB chance in the pen, really stands out, struggles in a few starts and then never gets a chance to work things out as a starter. This feel like the outcome to me, but there’s obviously still a chance the delivery/command stuff gets worked out.

Comment From John
this is unexpected and i did not come prepared. please list all the prospects you believe are legit. and some ones you don’t think are legit.

Comment From Brian
Do you think Rio Ruiz’s power will play up to a 50 outside of the Cal League?

Kiley McDaniel: The scouting grades are for neutral MLB parks, so yes.

Comment From jda
Were injury concerns the main reason that Keury Mella fell outside the 200 names you listed?

Kiley McDaniel: Another guy you could call #201. Good mid-90’s power arm with enough feel/secondary that he might be a starter, but still early and some risk.

Comment From Steve
Why is there no pitching prospect in the top 200 who gets “plus” command grades? Who are the top 200 “command” guys?

Kiley McDaniel: For me, it’s basically impossible to show plus command in the minors. Obviously, plenty of big leaguers have it, but tons of those were guys that never were consensus prospects and plenty of lauded command prospects are just avg or so in the big leagues. I’m fine with adjusting a 55 to a 60 after proving it in 50 MLB innings, I just don’t like to throw a 60 out on a skill that’s so reliant on how big league hitters react to you…before you face any big league hitters.

Comment From Eric
Bigger offensive upside Francisco Mejia or Julian Leon?

Kiley McDaniel: Leon slight edge offensively, Mejia big edge defensively

Comment From Owen
Corey Seager listed as 3B. What is the chance he spends at least some time early-on at ss at the big league level?

Kiley McDaniel: LA will try him there. Their metrics say he’s avg to slightly below, so they’ll try to see if they can make that avg with some work. I don’t think it’ll last long if they do manage to make that happen, though.

Comment From mattymatty
Hi Kiley, I’m sure you get asked all the time who is the player that just missed the list, the 201st prospect. I’m curious who the prospect that just missed after just missing after just missing after just missing after just missing [40 minutes later] after just missing is. Who is the 378th prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: 375 to 400 would be the end of the 45 FV group. Bubba Starling is 40+ FV, so maybe he’s the droid you’re looking for?

Comment From Bernard Gilkey
Are there ever 80 FV prospects. I think AROD circa 94 may qualify. Is it just a case of scouts not willing to put themselves out there to that degree?

Kiley McDaniel: I think 70 FV is the highest grade you can have with no MLB experience. That’s saying a 5 win season is the expected peak year. There’s a handful of guys that ever have a season better than that. Trout and Harper would’ve been 70 FV, but Trout would’ve been adjusted up before his rookie season was over.

Comment From BJ
I’m a big fan of Joe Ross, I know you had him as a 45 in the Nats list, but I thought for sure he would jump into at least the 45+ range for the final list. Any reason you’re more down on him than other prospect pundits?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s a good fastball and delivery, the off-speed is very inconsistent, often average to slightly above and the command isn’t as good as the control. Just a little generic for me and scouts said his stuff faded down the stretch in 2014, which isn’t a good sign. Could’ve been #201.

Comment From Brian Sabean
Why the big drop for Kyle Crick? Is it because you don’t see him as a starter or because of his control

Kiley McDaniel: Have to say reliever given what he’s done so far. Big upside if the command is average, but hard to project that with what we know.

Comment From DGCO
I should be interested in Canha just because Beane is, right?

Kiley McDaniel: And, by extension, soccer. Also, huge speaking fees.

Comment From @HurricanePT
Kiley, can you talk about how you ranked Rafael Devers? BP put him at 90, while you have him at 48. How much of a factor for you was his age, either a plus or minus?

Kiley McDaniel: Devers was like Albies. Everyone says they love him and I’m high on him but in the middle of 2015 where I have them may be low. Could be 6 hit and 6 power and some would go even higher on the hit. Dude is #LEGIT. Plus the linked video from the top 200 is dope.

Comment From Otter
Should we be more concerned about Bryant’s age, he’s older than Harper and Machado after all? I understand that Bryant went to college, but guys like Trout, Harper, Stanton, Heyward, J. Upton, Machado, etc were all in the big leagues by 20.

Kiley McDaniel: Big guys take longer. Bryant was a guy out of HS, he just whiffed too much to get 7 figures.

Comment From Guest
Question about your 45 FV list. Are those typically guys who right now are too young/it’s too early to project real FV’s or are they actually 45’s?

Kiley McDaniel: Some of both. There’s some MLB-ready utility types and some July 2 guys that are probably either a 60 FV or flameout, we just haven’t seen enough to go higher, so that’s the hedge to mirror trade value.

Comment From Yetty
Have you gotten any inkling that any teams are avoiding going over their international budgets this July in order to make a run at K.Maitan next year?

Kiley McDaniel: People are asking me about him. Usually, when there’s a hyped kid, scouts try to talk you down and manage expectations. No one has said anything negative on him yet, even rival agents. It’s kinda crazy. This was the kind of hype Sano had.

Lots of teams are eyeing going over now for Cubans or on 2015 July 2 for 16 year olds and it’s very fluid. The teams that get squeezed out on theses targets know this guy is waiting in 2016 July 2, so he may affect strategies, but still a very small amount.

Comment From Yetty
Who did you root for as a kid? The love still as strong after being part of the business?

Kiley McDaniel: Grew up in Tampa with Braves/Cubs as the teams I could watch, then Rays came along. Got in the game around 18-19, then kinda fell away from fandom since it started to become business and I knew too many people on teams I grew up not liking, etc.

Comment From Guest
What’s your opinion of Yoel mecias?

Kiley McDaniel: Possible back-end starter, solid stuff: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Shawn
Why do you hate my team’s top prospects?

Comment From Eminor3rd
Micah Johnson close to the 200 at all? I think the Chicago media has overrated him, but I was still surprised to see Michalczewski ahead of him. Are you further down on Micah than consensus?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, Johnson is another guy that could be #201. Just injured a lot and limited upside. Could take a step forward with a strong, healthy 2015.

Comment From Cool Lester Smooth
Are there usually a few more 65 FV prospects? It feels like the 10-15 range was filled with guys who would normally be in the 15-25 range.

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t gone through the full process like this before, so I can’t say for sure.

Comment From mtsw
Could you go into some more detail about the flaws in Addison Russel’s release? Where does he move if he can’t stick at SS?

Kiley McDaniel: He’d likely move to 3B, add more weight and may regain the 70 raw power he had in HS. He’ll be good wherever he is.

Comment From Con
You’re #1 on my top prospects list!

Kiley McDaniel: I liked it better when you guys were mean.

Comment From DGCO
Any info on Max George with the Rockies? He’s a friend, but the new Rockies GM also named him the best SS of all Rockies farm teams. Wondering your take if you’ve seen him.

Kiley McDaniel: He didn’t make their list, but then jumped after talking to more people afterwards. Could be a 45 FV next year with a solid season. Interesting grinder type SS with good feel for the game.

Comment From Pooper Trooper
Thanks for the list, Kiley. However, I don’t think you gave Daniel Norris enough FV units for living in A VAN DOWN BY THE RIVER!

Kiley McDaniel: Underrated part of his game.

Comment From Alex
Jimmie Sherfy or Jake Barret as a future D-Backs closer? Because Addison Reed won’t last in that role long

Kiley McDaniel: Or Enrique Burgos, who is another guy that jumped after the ARZ list when I saw him in the AFL. up to 98 mph with plus slider. They have tons of power arms in that system. Sherfy is the dirtiest when he’s right, but the stuff varies a lot.

Comment From Jake
You graded Correa equal to or above Russell in five of the six tools but slotted him in two spots lower overall. Was time-to-majors the determining factor here? Lingering concerns about the leg injury?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, if completely healthy is probably ahead of Russell, but him and Buxton got dinged for injuries.

Comment From Guest
Do you spend much time talking to prospects? Do these encounters make you think “makeup” is a thing?

Kiley McDaniel: Not much time, since I think getting to know their personality can sometimes cloud the waters of the more important stuff. Makeup is definitely a thing, but really hard to judge when their guard is up.

Comment From Shawn
Is there someone you wanted to rank much higher, but didn’t have the guts to do so?

Kiley McDaniel: LOL

Comment From Corey B
Was Miguel Castro in consideration for this list?

Kiley McDaniel: Sure, solid 45. still starter/reliever questions.

Comment From John
remember when everyone was scared to draft giolito? idiots

Kiley McDaniel: hindsight is a powerful drug

Comment From Shawn
Is Kris Bryant is the next Pedro Alvarez, is that a win, loss, or good enough outcome to not really be either?

Kiley McDaniel: He would’ve eaten a lot of tastycakes for that to happen, sorry Kris

Comment From Sam
You say Olson could work his way from 45 to 50. What about Dan Vogelbach?

Kiley McDaniel: He has trouble moving anywhere

Kiley McDaniel: And that concludes the fat joke portion of today’s chat.

Comment From Shelton
Tigers fans need some straws to grasp. How far away is James McCann from being a 45+ FV guy?

Kiley McDaniel: Solid 45, will contribute this year. Feels like backup, might be a little more.

Comment From Shawn
I love me some Rafael Devers. Have you seen him in person?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, a surprising amount of times

Comment From Will
Any 2015 draft prospects come to mind (HS or College) that have funky deliveries coupled with a track record of elite performance?

Kiley McDaniel: Carson Fulmer is your guy: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From mtsw
Do catchers report to ST just so there’s someone there to receive pitches or is there some special catcher-only stuff happening that requires them to get there early?

Kiley McDaniel: Secret catcher illuminati meetings each evening

Comment From adam
how are you not on a team’s payroll right now?

Kiley McDaniel: I used to be, but you don’t know what my asking price is now

Comment From Adam
On the note of Barreto: with his smaller frame what are the odds that he becomes a “slam dunk”? Does that mean him developing power?

Kiley McDaniel: I meant slam dunk SS defensively speaking. He kinda is what he is already as a hitter, which is really good for a kid that young.

Comment From Chris
Thoughts on Micah Johnson? Complete omission was kind of weird to me.

Comment From Chris
Seems very aggressive to drop Micah Johnson all the way out of the top 200. Reason?

Comment From Chris
Why is Micah Johnson not a top 200 prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: Chris thirsty

Comment From Eric
How about Julian Leon? Impressive showing last year but obviously far away. What do you think about his long term upside?

Kiley McDaniel: Questions about sticking at catcher, but tools to do so. Some feel to hit and 55-60 raw power. Could even be a solid prospect as a 1B.

Comment From Will
Thoughts on Andrew Suarez of Miami? Are the mechanics a problem? 1st round talent?

Kiley McDaniel: Had shoulder surgery earlier, so that’s a little scary. 60 FB, 55 SL, 55 CH when he’s right and command to start, but stuff faded down the stretch last year. solid 2nd rounder again, probably.

Comment From HELP
I’m in a 20 team keeper league that delves very deeply into the minors. I am looking for some guys who can break out this season who I can target while I look to rebuild. How would your rank Ozhaino Albiez, Victor Roblez, Amed Rosario, Francellis Montas and Lewis Thorpe?

Kiley McDaniel: Albies, Rosario, Montas, Thorpe, Robles. Check out Aquino with CIN as well.

Comment From Shawn
Can you please rank prospects 201-400? Thanks

Kiley McDaniel: If I hang up and listen, would you do it?

Comment From Jimmy McGill
Can Michael Conforto handle right field and how do you think his hit tool will hold up in the majors?

Kiley McDaniel: Could be fine, but just getting settled in LF, so he’ll stay put. 50-55 hit tool but lots of walks, so offensive production may outpace scouting grades. Plus bat speed.

Comment From Ryan
Mondesi Jr. more Erick Aybar, Jean Segura, or something else?

Kiley McDaniel: Aybar is a common comp for Mondesi

Comment From Pedro
Did I miss Tropeano on the list? If not, where does he slot in?

Kiley McDaniel: Solid but unspectacular 45 FV, in the next tier.

Comment From Ace Black
On the full report, Hunter Harvey is a 60 FV. On the list he is a 55 FV. Did something change?

Kiley McDaniel: Just shuffled names around once I can see them all together and rival scouts want to see that he’s healthy rather than taking BAL’s word for it. Will move up if he starts 2015 like he did 2014.

Comment From GSon
Better top of rotation prospect, Lucas Giolito, Jonathan Gray or Carlos Rodon?

Kiley McDaniel: Surprising amount of questions like this. I just ranked them all. It’s that order. The order I just ranked them. Look at the rankings.

Comment From Matt
After you throwing a potential plus power and run grades on JaCoby Jones with an outside possibility to stick at shortstop, I am curious where he falls. Doesn’t he have Ian Desmond lite upside?

Kiley McDaniel: I think I have 55 on power/run, I think he fits at 3B, but PIT thinks he can play SS.

Comment From Ben
You mentioned them together: would you rather have Odor or Dilson Herrera at the keystone for your team for the next five years?

Kiley McDaniel: Odor, prettier swing, more game pop.

Comment From Guest
Any news on Yadier Alvarez?

Kiley McDaniel: Teams are circling him like sharks that smell blood. This could get real interesting. A bunch of teams that you wouldn’t expect are already aggressive on him. Can’t sign for about a month, so it’ll take some time to develop.

Comment From Hugo Z
Troubled at all by Albies’ unusually high babip?

Kiley McDaniel: In the low minors, BABIP maps better to talent than luck

Comment From John
Taillon drop due mostly to TJ?

Kiley McDaniel: Completely due to TJ. Easy top 50 if healthy.

Comment From Guest
Had the chance to catch a game at the U this weekend. Jacob Heyward seemed to have raw tools- any thoughts that he could turn into a decent mid to high prospect over the next couple of years?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a wait and see guy. Zach Collins, Willie Abreu, Carl Chester, Justin Smith, Brad Zunica, Brandon Lopez are all more interesting on that team for me

Comment From GSon
Is there a class where we can go to get mean?

Kiley McDaniel: School of Hard Knocks is always open. It has a lot of alumni playing on MNF, too.

Comment From Vexed
Justin Williams from Tampa? Too young to get a read on? Also whats your take on Boog Powell? He has a great approach but his power is non-existent almost. Single machine for the most part.

Kiley McDaniel: 45 FV, power bat, contact questions, defense isn’t great in LF/RF

Comment From Kileys Mother
Kiley, bubbie, why did you become a baseball scout, of all things? Why couldn’t you have become a doctor, like your cousin Larry? Also, you should call me more.

Kiley McDaniel: UGH MOM NOT IN MY CHAT

Comment From I can see only four minor league games this season, and one of them will be a Round Rock game to see Joey Gallo take BP. What are the other three games?
Shohei Otani finds a loophole and becomes a free agent. Bigger or smaller contract than Moncada?

Kiley McDaniel: Right there with him

Comment From Sam
How negatively was Dominic Smith affected by his environment last year?

Kiley McDaniel: Hugely

Comment From Dave
Great list! You mentioned how oppo power for young guys is a hugely positive for young guys – is this what had you so bullish on Amed Rosario?

Kiley McDaniel: That and scouts going gaga over his potential. Might have a tough year in Savannah, though.

Kiley McDaniel: Alright that’s all, I’ve got lunch to eat. You’re welcome for your next 6 months of bathroom reading.