Kris Bryant Not the Only MLB Player Sent Down

The Chicago Cubs made big news yesterday when they demoted Kris Bryant as he is clearly better than other players remaining on the major league roster. Leaving Bryant aside, there are several other prospects throughout the majors who will not get starting roles with their teams who might already be better than the players ahead of them, including fellow Cubs prospect Javier Baez. There are myriad reasons to keep a player in the minors, some related to service time, some related to player readiness, some related to lack of urgency to win, and some due to sunk costs already on the major league roster.

Below are four players who could help their team now, with three players on teams that could contend, but will likely not make the major league roster. Other players who were considered, but not discussed in depth below are Rob Refsnyder on the New York Yankees, Alex Meyer and Miguel Sano of the Minnesota Twins, Archie Bradley of the Arizona Diamondbacks, Joey Gallo of the Texas Rangers and potentially Micah Johnson of the Chicago White Sox. The numbers below come from the FanGraphs Depth Charts. All plate appearances are prorated to 600 and all innings pitched are prorated to 180.

What was true of Bryant is less clear with Baez. Chris Mitchell did a good job yesterday discussing how much weight should be given to Baez’s terrible start in Major League Baseball last season. Baez was solid last season in Triple-A, but not spectacular with a .260/.323/.510 line in 434 Iowa plate appearances. Baez already has a couple months in the majors so the Cubs would need to keep him in the minors until sometime in June to receive an additional year of team control.

Fellow Cubs prospect Arismendy Alcantara has the better prorated WAR at second base coming into the season, and aligning the best lineup involves a lot of moving parts. Chris Coghlan is the lowest projected regular on the Cubs so moving him out of the lineup probably moves the Cubs forward the most. Alcantara has played the outfield and could replace Coghlan. He would not be worth as much in left field as the infield, but the net gain over Coghlan would help, assuming Kris Bryant is called up soon and takes over at third base as opposed to left field. The ideal lineup for the Cubs may put Alcantara in center field with Dexter Fowler moving to right as Fowler is not seen as a good defender by UZR or DRS.

Across town, the Chicago White Sox have a top prospect of their own who could make an immediate impact with the team. Carlos Rodon has just over 21 professional innings after the White Sox made him the third overall draft pick last year and signed him to a contract in excess of $6 million. Kiley McDaniel ranked him the number eight prospect in all of baseball, noting his great slider. He might not make a big impact this season, but he is likely to be an upgrade over what the White Sox currently have in the rotation.

After trading for Jeff Samardzija and signing Melky Cabrera, projecting the team to win just 78 games might come as a surprise. The Sox have Chris Sale, Jeff Samardzija, and Jose Quintana anchoring the rotation, but the White Sox could have two replacement-level or below pitchers in the rotation with Hector Noesi and John Danks. The White Sox still owe Danks around $14 million each of the next two seasons, but the left-hander has not had a decent season since 2011. Rodon does not have any service time so the White Sox could gain an extra year of service time by keeping him down for a few weeks. Those few weeks are not likely to make a difference in the team’s playoff chances, but if they keep him down too long, they might find themselves out of the race earlier than expected.

The Phillies do not have a lot going for them right now, but Maikel Franco should be a bright spot for them at some point this season. Kiley McDaniel ranked Franco 38th out of all prospects, writing “Franco’s breakout was in 2013, between High-A and Double-A, when he went from a high contact hitter with some raw power to a monster hitting over .300 with 30 homers between two levels”. Franco has already been sent down this spring after some concerns of overswinging.

Franco has been a third baseman in the minor leagues and his projection is actually higher than current Phillies third baseman Cody Asche, but Franco would be a more significant upgrade at first base over Ryan Howard. Given where they sit on the win curve, there is little urgency to call Franco up, particularly to bench former franchise star Ryan Howard. After playing a month last season, the Phillies would need to keep him down into May to ensure a seventh season of service time. Franco might not provide much for the Phillies this season, but he is likely already ahead of the low standard they have set at the major league level currently.

Much has been made of the Cubs decision to send Kris Bryant down, but much less has been written about the decision to keep Noah Syndergaard in the minors. Heading into the season, the Mets are just a couple projected wins behind the Cubs and their odds at the playoffs (30%) are not that far off compared to the Cubs (44%). The Mets looked good in the rotation heading into spring, but when Zach Wheeler went down they inserted Dillon Gee into the rotation.

Gee’s projections are not very good while Syndergaard is projected to be very good right off the bat. Kiley McDaniel rated Syndergaard the 19th best prospect in baseball and wrote, “He now sits 93-97 with heavy life and hits 98 mph with a curveball that is mostly above average, but still varies outing to outing. Syndergaard also has been more open to using his changeup than Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler at the same stage, with the pitch flashing above average pretty consistently already.” The win jump between Syndergaard and Gee is huge, similar to the one the Cubs will gain when they call Kris Bryant up.

The Mets, Cubs, and White Sox all have an outside shot at contending this season, but look like they will keep a potentially important piece to contention in the minors. Kris Bryant gets all the attention, but Carlos Rodon, Javier Baez, and Noah Syndergaard have claims of their own. If the goal is to put the best team on the field, even Phillies fans should be complaining. Not all service time manipulation is as obvious as the Cubs’ decision to send Kris Bryant down, but it is a fairly common practice that happens every spring.