Kyle Schwarber Is Who We Thought He Was

In some circles, Kyle Schwarber has reached mythical proportions. Nor is the rise of his legend entirely unreasonable. Consider some of his exploits to date. He reached the majors just a year after being drafted and proceeded to record 16 homers in less than half a season. He hit a monster home run that helped clinched a playoff series against the rival Cardinals in 2015. Then, after missing the entire 2016 season with knee surgery, he returned for the World Series and reached base in half of his plate appearances, the Cubs winning three of the four games he started. He’s still just 25.

In the nearly two years since that epic series, however, Schwarber has failed to live up to the hype. That said, he’s basically also fulfilled the expectations evaluators had for him as a prospect. Back before the 2015 season, this is what Kiley McDaniel had to say about Schwarber’s future.

When I first saw Schwarber last summer on a loaded college Team USA, I thought the middle linebacker-looking dude wasn’t a good bet to stick at catcher, but he was surprisingly nimble for his size with enough ability to at least consider it. I wrote that he was good enough back there to allow him to play there in the minors and develop him as a potential backup that plays once or twice a week but is a primary at left field or first base. The Cubs took him #4 overall out of Indiana and agree with my defensive suggestion; they’ll develop him as a catcher this year, but most assume his bat will be ready before his glove, meaning he’ll be a part-time catcher at best. There’s legit 30 homer power and surprising feel to hit with a realistic chance for a big league look in late 2016.

At the time, McDaniel gave Schwarber a 60 future-value grade, or roughly the equivalent of a three-win player. Nearly 1,200 plate appearances into Schwarber’s career, he’s put up a 112 wRC+ and 5.8 WAR. He has been, in other words, basically a three-win player thus far in his career. Yes, lot of his value came in that rookie season and, yes, last season might be regarded as a disappointment; however, much of his struggles last year were due to bad luck, and he’s played pretty well this season.

The table below shows Schwarber’s xwOBA (based on launch angle and exit velocity) compared to his actual wOBA figures over the past two seasons.

Schwarber had a bad two months’ worth of results at the beginning of last season, but he was making decent contact. By xwOBA, his hitting has been pretty consistent, never descending lower than .324 in any month, with a high of .396 in April this season. A few loud outs or beneficial homers with the wind blowing out can change the results pretty drastically over a small sample size. Take this month, for example. In the Cubs’ series against the Nationals, Schwarber hit a warning-track fly ball for an out that is almost always a home run in normal conditions. The following day, he hit a scorching line drive on which Michael Taylor made a diving catch. If Schwarber had a home run and a double on those two plays instead of two outs, his August numbers would be .317/.364/.512. Instead, by pure results, he looks like he’s slumping.

All of this is to say that Schwarber is a solidly above-average hitter. The 114 wRC+ this season, the 112 wRC+ for his career, and the 116 wRC+ projection for the rest of the season all say the same thing: Schwarber is good. The only thing really preventing Schwarber from earning a 60 on the scouting scale right now are some struggles against left-handed pitching. For his career, he has a 64 wRC+ against lefties and a 125 wRC+ when he has the platoon advantage. His numbers this season are similar by those measures: 77 wRC+ against lefties, 122 wRC+ against righties. With only 200 career PA against lefties, though, it is still very early in the 25-year-old’s career. It can take time for lefties to become competent against same-handed pitching.

I asked McDaniel about his prospect evaluation of Schwarber. He said he probably expected more from the bat and the occasional appearance at catcher. He said he would probably call Schwarber a present 55, future 60, and said of hitting lefties that it’s “a concern, but usually pure hitters figure it out,” Schwarber’s projections put him right in that 55/60, 2.5-3.0 WAR range that was initially expected of him when he came up. There’s still a bit more potential in there that Schwarber could unlock as he evolves as a hitter, but right now, he’s pretty close to reasonable expectations.

As for his defense, Schwarber has proved athletic enough to be okay in left field. Those who, earlier in the year, optimistically cited Schwarber’s defensive metrics as evidence of improvement would probably take the opportunity to revise their statements at this point. Schwarber’s early-season numbers were propped up by eight outfield assists in the Cubs’ first 76 games. His nine assists on the season are still propping his defensive numbers, but his range is back in the average range (by UZR) to below-average range (by DRS). Statcast’s Outs Above Average metrics has Schwarber at -8, which is precisely the mark he earned a year ago. With his strong arm — which produced good numbers by UZR last year as well — he probably remains average to below in left. He’ll end up with good numbers this season because of all those assists, but it probably isn’t reasonable to expect the same going forward.

Schwarber is still an intriguing player. He can handle a corner-outfield spot, and his bat does well enough to make him a regular player at the position. At 25 years old and with fewer than 2,000 professional plate appearances, there’s still room for growth. We shouldn’t expect Schwarber to become a superstar because that was never a reasonable expectation. He’s a good player now and could be a better one in the future. Expectations have varied wildly, but he’s having a solid pro career, and that’s right in line with what should have been expected.