Let’s Find a Home: Chris Davis Edition
In light of the tremendous success of last week’s edition of Let’s Find a Home — for which we took about 20 minutes to send Johnny Cueto eagerly off to San Francisco — I thought it would be right neighborly to take on a different, lonely, sad free agent this holiday season. So, people, won’t you help me find a new happy home for Chris Davis? He’s tall, he hits homers, and he is completely potty trained! Adoption fees start at $150 million.
There’s an alternate reality somewhere out beyond our galaxy (yes, I saw Star Wars a few days ago) where Chris Davis is taking one year “rebuild his value” offers from a few teams after another unsuccessful season. In that galaxy, Chris Davis is Mike Napoli, and when he signs, it doesn’t merit a press conference, only a few lines from his new manager amidst discussion of other business. That’s where things were headed for Davis after 2014. He was worth not quite a full win that season, batting below .200, just reaching a .300 on-base percentage, and slugging a hearty (for a middle infielder) .404. This came following a seven win season. Seven! Wins! Chris Davis posted a seven win season then wasn’t worth a single win the next season. Ahhhh baseball!
Then last season, Davis was worth 5.6 wins. Ahhhh baseball reprise! Chris Davis is your friend who insists on driving but doesn’t understand the subtlety required by brake and acceleration pedals. His car lurches forward off the line then, as soon as he sees anyone slowing in front of him, he slams on the breaks. Can you pay that guy like he’s a champion race-car driver?
That’s the question with Davis. Because of his up and down seasons — and, like most free agents, his age (30 next season) — there’s a real chance you’re going to get next to nothing for your money. Of course, that possibility exists for every free agent — hello Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez! — but usually it’s not outlined so starkly. Then again, the thought of adding 50 homers to the middle of a lineup is enticing, as well, and that’s likely exactly what the team that signs Davis will mention repeatedly at the press conference.
Davis is a Scott Boras client and Boras has already made the following statements about Davis:
- Davis is the best free agent available.
- Davis can play the outfield.
- Davis has a pet monkey named Stevey Bananas.
Given it’s still December, we’re not yet in the Stephen Drew/Kendrys Morales desperation portion of the off-season, so don’t expect Davis’s asking price to be anything but huge. Still, Boras isn’t wrong. His client has totaled, even with the 0.8 win 2014 season, 13.4 wins over the past three seasons combined, and in an odd way, the way he’s done it allows interested clubs to dream on the big season even more. So, who has the money, the need, and… well, that’s it really. The money and the need. Who has them?
The Obvious and Needy and Likely
Orioles
As Davis’s once and possibly future team, Baltimore has a spot open for him, and with the departures of Wei-Yin Chen, Tommy Hunter, and a collection of lesser-paid players, they have money available. In fact, the Orioles are about the only team that has seriously been mentioned as a realistic home for Davis. Look up Davis on MLB Trade Rumors and you’ll find the Orioles and then a collection of teams specifically stating they aren’t interested. The Orioles may, if the rumor mills are to be believed, be negotiating against themselves, a losing proposition if ever one existed. That realization is possibly why they’ve resisted upping their offer recently. Still, a team hoping to compete in a division with the AL East champion Blue Jays and the potentially resurgent Red Sox would do well not to lose a five- to seven-win 50-homer first baseman.
This is the most logical destination. The need exists, the money exists, and for whatever little bit it’s worth, the player is clearly comfortable with the team and the city. Given I’m writing this article, expect Davis to sign momentarily.
The Obvious and Needy and Unlikely
Cardinals
The Cardinals are playing down their desire to bring in any big name, high priced players. It could be because they’ve been jilted by the likes of David Price and Jason Heyward and they’re feeling sad and not a little bit angry. All high-school kids can relate, I’m sure. But it’s also possible they don’t see Davis as an asset long-term. Giving a guy $150 million only works if you think he’s both good and will remain so for the foreseeable future and it’s possible the Cardinals don’t feel that way about Davis. Still, St. Louis has the money, and they have the need after losing John Lackey and Heyward to the division-rival Chicago Cubs. Whether Davis is their kind of guy, though, that remains to be seen.
The Less Needy but Kinda Needy and Also Obvious but Unlikely
Red Sox
Like the Cardinals, the Red Sox seem poised to sit on whatever money they have left. That makes them an unlikely suitor. But, it must be acknowledged, they have a need. Hanley Ramirez, their perspective first baseman, is neither a first baseman in word nor deed. What’s more, he hit terribly last season. His defense got more press (including here), but he also finished the season with an atrocious .249/.291/.426 batting line. It’s no secret the Red Sox would love to get rid of him, but if they did so they’d suddenly be without a first baseman. Sure, Travis Shaw could be that guy, but that’s about as much of a sure thing as Hanley, and the Red Sox aren’t the sort of team to hand a starting spot over to someone bad unless they’ve forced themselves to do so. The end result is, if the Red Sox were somehow able to drop Hanley onto someone else’s lap, they’d need another starting first baseman, and as long as Davis is out there, he’ll be the best one available.
Blue Jays
Toronto lost David Price to those thieves down south, but they weren’t likely to be swimming in those waters anyway. Still, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion will be free agents following this season so they’ll have money to play with and it’s possible that the Jays would prefer to pay Davis now, DH Encarnacion full time, and have the three of them in the order together, even if for one season. It makes some sense if you forget that the Jays never, ever spend $150 million or more on free agents.
The Generally Needy but Not Specifically Needy and Unlikely
Dodgers
The Dodgers have money! And yet it seems nobody will take it. They also have a first baseman in Adrian Gonzalez, but so what? They’re the Dodgers!
That’s about all I got on this one.
The Ridiculous
Colorado
Of course not, but wouldn’t it be fun? It sure would!
Everyone Else
Despite all the posturing, there’s at least some chance Davis doesn’t end up in Baltimore. The Orioles are volatile like that. And if he doesn’t go there, then who knows where he goes? There’s no obvious stop. After Baltimore, the Cardinals and Red Sox are at the top of this list, but I highly doubt he goes to either team given the way they’ve conducted their off-seasons to date. So I offer the “Everyone Else” catch-all designation for your amusement. Maybe Davis will sign with the Yankees! Maybe he’ll play for the Mariners! Who knows!
But it’s probably Baltimore, right? Right.
Let’s kill Scott Boras for Christmas
Too harsh? How about a Christmas gift? A month-long stay at the Tehran Hilton, then?
A bad case of boils?
He should hit an unusual number of red lights while driving to his extended family’s Christmas celebration, giving him fear that he will be late but he still makes it with 2 minutes to spare.
We do not approve.
That is a little harsh, but the man that made millionaires of Todd Van Poppel, Brien Taylor, Stephen Drew, Barry Zito, Luke Hochevar and our favorite PED user ARod certainly deserves derision.
Without the powers of Boras, A-Rod would have surely remained a lowly Thousand-aire
Oh no, he took money from our beloved team owners and gave it to those useless baseball players.
Uhhh…I guess he’s a bad guy for doing his rather harmless job?
You’re barking up the wrong tree, champ
I’m an Orioles fan and a Chris Davis fan, but I admit that a 7 year/$150 million contract does scare me, especially for a team with spending habits like Baltimore. Davis reminds me too much of Ryan Howard. On the other hand, I think the Orioles can be a contender in 2016 with him, and will be harder pressed to do so without him. This is a tough one.
I agree with everything you said except the contender part, as the pitching isn’t there yet. The steroid era is the only time that the Chris Davis types have aged well. It’s also worth noting that Davis’ miserable 2014 campaign came when he no longer had approved access to stimulants, so if he ever loses that exemption then his value presumably craters again. If they’re going to spend on someone, and if history is any guide they’ll lose out on every free agent they supposedly go for, I would rather it be Justin Upton.
“so if he ever loses that exemption then his value presumably craters again.”
There was a definite correlation, but I don’t know if that’s enough to assume causation. Could it have been the lack of stimulants? Sure, but I think “presumably” goes a little far.
I was not suggesting that stimulants alone account for a 4.8 WAR difference, as Davis also had an oblique injury, but it’s fair to presume that it was a factor. I don’t know how difficult it is to renew MLB exemptions after you receive them, so that may not even be a problem.
Davis didnt have an exemption for adderall in 2013 either.
He wasn’t caught in 2013.
If I were an Orioles fan, I’d prefer going after Cespedes and collecting a draft pick when Davis signs elsewhere.
It makes only a marginal difference, and in the end it normally gets factored into the signing price by almost every team.
The Os do have better in house options at 1st than the corner OF. Jones is the guy in CF, and they signed the Korean Guy, but corner OF in Baltimore has been bad- I mean historically bad, they have not had an all star LF in decades. At 1b they have Christian Walker and Trey Mancini. Mancini tore up AA last year, but is stuck at 1b, and Walker is starting to get the AAAA label even tough he has never been given a real MLB chance. I am sure one of them will step up in camp.
Trumbo is the weird wrinkle in this, since I know he plays a poor corner OF, a terrible 3b, and has played some 1b… so he could really slot in anywhere.
Trumbo is also terrible at 1B.
And by “the Korean Guy,” you mean Hyun-soo Kim, right?
Orioles should offer him 7 years, $140 million, with the offer decreasing $7million every week he does not sign it.
Now that’s not a bad idea. Maybe not that dollar figure, specifically, but the principle is very interesting.
It’s a good way to engender ill will with your potential signee, that’s for sure. (Agreed that it’s a novel approach, but there’s nothing like having rapidly diminishing value over your head to start a contract off on a bad foot, even if the intent is good and the tactic isn’t necessarily an unfair one.)
Houston and San Diego seem pretty needy, unless you believe that AJ Reed is ready
The pirates could use a cleanup hitter and first baseman. Oh wait never mind they signed Ryan Vogelsong and Sean Rodriguez. It would be nice if I could at least entertain the possibility of the pirates signing a great free agent without laughing at myself when I see the next rumor, which will be something along the lines of “pirates interested in signing Jeremy Guthrie.” Actually, who am I kidding? Guthrie is probably out of their price range.
Sad sack does not work for 90 some odd win teams… the pirates sign what they need and develop the rest, they do well for a small market team
The thing I find the most interesting with regards to Chris Davis and the Orioles is the fact that this $150/mil contract idea is out there. Davis, reportedly, turned down the offer that the Orioles, reportedly, offered.
But what’s interesting is that nobody else seems interested in his services. At least not at this cost. If the Orioles are the only suitor, and Davis/Boras come back to them, do the Orioles say ‘yea, well, now we’re only offering you $150-X because we know you have no leverage’? Because that would be both savvy and also incredibly corporately cold of them. I could see them doing it. Angelos is corporately cold. Perhaps this is the point behind publicly stating that the ‘offer is off the table’. Idk, I have a feeling that Davis is more coveted by the Orioles and Angelos than by other orgs, and so it’s starting to seem like they’re going to end up together again. But, at what cost will be interesting to see.
The reasoning that Angelos gave for offering Davis that huge contract, though, is alarming as hell.
Blue Jays 1 year 38 million please. Wanna see 1,000 runs.
Yeah – that would be a fun lineup if they got one of Davis’s good years.
Wouldn’t the Orioles be better off rebulding?
Why don’t teams reduce the years and up the AAV for a play like Davis? Matthew mentions the Cardinals might not believe he’ll be good for a long time. So offer him 3 years at 30 million AAV ($90 million), or go even higher on the AAV but stick to the number of years they’re comfortable with.
I realize that Chris Davis will take a 7 year offer over a 3 year one (even if the 3 years have a higher AAV). But maybe nobody will offer him 7 (or even 6 or 5) at the AAV Boras feels he should get.
This idea makes sense if you’re talking about money that outpaces the longer contract, but not if it doesn’t. Not for a 30 year old first baseman. Yea, 3yr/90 mil is a much better deal than 7/150, simply because of the AAV, but the overall value of the 7 year deal is still drastically better for the security of the player. If Davis was considering between a 3/90 or a 5/90, then yes, of course you’d want the lower amount of years.
If I am paying money to baseball players to play baseball for my team, I don’t think I’m comfortable paying Chris Davis more than $100mil over 4 years. Maybe include an opt-out after 2 or 3 years or something. I just… I feel like anything over a 25 million commitment for any more than 4 years is a huge mistake. And I also am particularly bullish on Chris Davis, even.
Security of the player? If Davis can’t have security with 90 mil over 3 years I feel sorry for the dude.
This would never happen in the age of the opt-out. Chris Davis can have both short-term money and long term security. Why settle for just 3 years?
The only way I see this working is for a one-year deal, so Davis could punt on this offseason and rebuild his value and try again next year. The Orioles have stated that their offer is off the table, but I am sure that it would still be there as long as they don’t spend on someone else, so Davis’s camp can always go back to those numbers as a baseline. A 1-year deal to reestablish his value might be a gamble Davis and Boras would take, but only in late January or February.
Perhaps a 2 year deal with an opt-out after 1 year would be the most valuable to both parties? If 2014 Chris Davis emerges in 2016, than he’s guaranteed another year at a powerful AAV. If he does his odd-numbered year thing in an even numbered year, then it essentially acted as a pillow contract for him. I feel like Davis would be a really good candidate for this 1+1 sort of deal, based on his recent history.
please STOP with the ‘opt out’. I fricking hate it, the player is the only one who benefits. People are talking about $150,000,000 … SEE all the zero’s? Sorry that isn’t enough for ANOTHER greedy ball player who hit less than .200 two seasons ago…
Chris Davis is coming off a year where he hit .262/.361/.562 with 47 home runs. He doesn’t need to re-establish his value. This year WAS the re-establishing of his value.
Ha, yes, this is indeed true.
I could see the White Sox making a play for Davis, but first they have to figure out how many AA prospects they’d have to pair up with Adam LaRoche to get the Orioles or the Cardinals to take him for 2016.
LaRoche and Danks for Hanley
Considering that Hanley Ramirez has been a much better baseball player than Chris Davis, that the two are projected to produce similar value in 2016, and that the Red Sox are on the hook for less dollars and fewer years for Hanley than the numbers being bandied about for Davis, it makes very little sense for the Red Sox to sell low on one in order to buy high on the other.