2016 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Cincinnati / Kansas City / New York AL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
If there’s one thing that irks Dan Szymborski, it’s when people cast aspersions against great Polish-American war hero Casimir Pulaski. If there’s a second thing that irks him, however, it’s when people calculate the sum of the WAR figures displayed in the depth charts of these ZiPS posts, add those totals to 47.7 (i.e. the win total of a hypothetical replacement-level club), and then regard the result as Szymborski’s unambigious win projection for the team in question. Bad form, is what Szymborski has to say about that maneuver.

That caveat having been made, what one finds upon revisiting last year’s ZiPS post for Baltimore is that the club’s depth-chart projections accounted for roughly 34 WAR — which figure, added to 47.7, equals 81.7. Meanwhile, here’s the Orioles’ final record from 2015: 81-81. And their BaseRuns record, also: 79-83. What appears to have happened, at the most basic level, is that Szymborski’s computer regarded Baltimore as almost a perfectly average team and then Baltimore performed like almost a perfectly average team.

This is bad news for the current iteration of the club, which accounts for only about 27 WAR (i.e. seven fewer wins than last year) on the depth chart below. Among the position players, there’s a great deal of uncertainty after Adam Jones and Manny Machado. Indeed, right field and designated hitter actually receive negative-win projections. So, not ideal. That said, there’s some positive uncertainty, as well — particularly in left fielder Hyeon-soo Kim, whose combination of contact ability and power invite comparisons to the best version of Nick Markakis.

Pitchers
The Orioles employ two of the most compelling pitchers, by mere raw talent, in all of baseball. Selected fourth overall in 2011 and 2012, respectively, Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman have both exhibited sufficient stuff and polish as professionals to suggest a promising future. What the projections see, however — for the moment, at least — is a paucity of innings (in Bundy’s case) and a merely average record while working in a swing role (in Gausman’s case). Both will likely have the opportunity this year to build upon their strengths.

With regard to strengths, the Baltimore’s bullpen features the strongest of them. Already celebrated by Eno Sarris in these pages for their various arm actions, the relief corps — especially after retaining the services of Darren O’Day — appears to be among the best in the majors.

Bench/Prospects
With regard to the Orioles, the line between starter and bench player is ambiguous at a number of positions. Absent from the depth-chart image below, Trey Mancini (527 PA, 0.9 zWAR) looks as though he could be of some assistance at either first base or designated hitter. Rey Navarro (490 PA, 0.8 zWAR) appears capable of offering some multipositional help, as well, although he was recently DFA’d. Among pitchers, right-hander Oliver Drake (48.2 IP, 0.5 zWAR) is a candidate to augment the already talented relief staff.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Orioles, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Orioles Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Manny Machado R 23 3B 601 80 154 26 1 28 72 16 5
Chris Davis L 30 1B 594 85 138 25 0 42 109 2 3
Adam Jones R 30 CF 642 84 167 30 3 29 94 7 2
Jonathan Schoop R 24 2B 429 47 106 19 0 18 50 2 1
Caleb Joseph R 30 C 398 38 87 17 1 12 49 1 1
Mark Trumbo R 30 1B 527 66 125 22 2 28 88 2 2
Matt Wieters B 30 C 338 33 78 15 1 12 41 1 0
Steve Pearce R 33 LF 299 36 66 15 1 13 37 2 1
J.J. Hardy R 33 SS 518 51 120 21 0 11 50 0 0
Hyeon-soo Kim L 28 LF 577 66 138 21 0 17 64 5 2
Francisco Pena R 26 C 364 38 81 15 1 10 42 2 2
Trey Mancini R 24 1B 527 62 138 27 4 14 65 4 2
Rey Navarro B 26 2B 490 53 116 22 2 9 45 4 5
Gerardo Parra L 29 RF 584 71 142 28 4 10 46 11 6
Dariel Alvarez R 27 RF 486 54 126 22 2 15 55 5 3
Chance Sisco L 21 C 443 43 101 16 2 7 38 4 2
Ryan Flaherty L 29 2B 306 33 61 11 2 9 35 1 0
David Lough L 30 LF 312 34 71 9 3 6 28 7 5
Rossmel Perez L 26 C 322 29 78 9 1 2 25 2 2
Corban Joseph L 27 2B 344 38 80 13 1 8 36 2 3
Steve Tolleson R 32 2B 227 24 48 9 1 3 17 5 2
Audry Perez R 27 C 289 24 67 11 0 4 24 0 0
Junior Lake R 26 LF 406 42 89 17 1 10 36 12 8
Chris Parmelee L 28 1B 425 43 94 20 1 13 45 1 2
Paul Janish R 33 SS 336 27 69 11 2 1 19 1 2
Alfredo Marte R 27 RF 413 43 90 18 2 9 44 4 2
Joey Rickard R 25 CF 413 42 84 16 2 3 31 13 5
Nolan Reimold R 32 LF 250 24 50 9 0 5 22 2 1
Quincy Latimore R 27 RF 414 44 83 16 3 13 44 5 4
Delmon Young R 30 RF 301 29 77 12 0 8 34 1 0
Sean Halton R 29 LF 462 43 95 21 1 9 44 2 2
Christian Walker R 25 1B 526 56 118 23 1 18 60 1 2
Henry Urrutia L 29 LF 426 40 104 17 2 7 40 1 2
L.J. Hoes R 26 RF 451 49 100 19 2 5 37 12 6
Jimmy Paredes B 27 DH 469 52 112 21 3 11 51 12 5
Osvaldo Martinez R 28 SS 409 35 86 12 1 2 27 6 3
Derrik Gibson R 26 2B 343 31 68 8 2 2 20 6 4
Adrian Marin R 22 SS 490 43 105 20 3 5 37 18 10
Julio Borbon L 30 CF 396 37 92 9 3 4 26 17 6
Sharlon Schoop R 29 2B 261 21 50 8 0 2 16 1 1
Jeff Kemp R 26 2B 398 34 76 14 1 5 27 4 3
Mike Yastrzemski L 25 LF 488 46 99 21 5 8 44 7 6
Drew Dosch L 24 3B 526 46 111 14 4 5 38 4 3
Josh Hart L 21 CF 453 33 94 11 2 2 25 22 15

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Manny Machado 601 9.5% 15.8% .209 .304 .288 .359 .497 .375
Chris Davis 594 10.4% 30.5% .291 .319 .265 .350 .556 .380
Adam Jones 642 3.6% 18.4% .203 .299 .276 .312 .479 .341
Jonathan Schoop 429 3.3% 24.2% .180 .309 .262 .295 .442 .318
Caleb Joseph 398 5.8% 21.9% .150 .278 .238 .286 .388 .291
Mark Trumbo 527 7.2% 23.9% .227 .290 .258 .311 .485 .339
Matt Wieters 338 7.7% 19.5% .173 .282 .254 .308 .427 .316
Steve Pearce 299 8.7% 20.1% .211 .273 .249 .328 .460 .342
J.J. Hardy 518 4.8% 16.4% .111 .277 .247 .283 .358 .278
Hyeon-soo Kim 577 8.5% 14.6% .140 .287 .267 .334 .407 .322
Francisco Pena 364 4.1% 18.7% .137 .267 .238 .273 .375 .282
Trey Mancini 527 4.2% 22.4% .155 .334 .277 .307 .432 .319
Rey Navarro 490 4.9% 14.1% .117 .280 .254 .291 .371 .291
Gerardo Parra 584 5.7% 15.9% .123 .301 .264 .309 .387 .304
Dariel Alvarez 486 2.7% 14.8% .153 .291 .271 .294 .424 .314
Chance Sisco 443 7.2% 22.3% .101 .312 .249 .308 .350 .293
Ryan Flaherty 306 7.5% 23.9% .153 .267 .222 .289 .375 .286
David Lough 312 3.8% 17.6% .114 .281 .246 .280 .360 .285
Rossmel Perez 322 5.9% 9.0% .057 .284 .264 .309 .321 .280
Corban Joseph 344 5.8% 14.0% .122 .273 .251 .298 .373 .297
Steve Tolleson 227 7.5% 22.5% .099 .298 .236 .299 .335 .286
Audry Perez 289 2.1% 16.6% .083 .276 .240 .258 .323 .252
Junior Lake 406 6.7% 29.1% .131 .319 .238 .291 .369 .303
Chris Parmelee 425 7.8% 23.5% .158 .293 .244 .306 .402 .310
Paul Janish 336 5.7% 16.4% .059 .267 .223 .273 .282 .249
Alfredo Marte 413 6.5% 24.5% .130 .298 .237 .293 .367 .292
Joey Rickard 413 8.5% 21.5% .079 .293 .231 .307 .310 .287
Nolan Reimold 250 9.2% 26.4% .108 .292 .224 .300 .332 .283
Quincy Latimore 414 6.3% 29.7% .160 .283 .218 .272 .378 .286
Delmon Young 301 3.3% 18.9% .126 .309 .269 .299 .395 .302
Sean Halton 462 6.3% 24.2% .119 .281 .225 .281 .344 .276
Christian Walker 526 6.3% 27.2% .162 .305 .243 .295 .405 .305
Henry Urrutia 426 4.9% 20.0% .104 .310 .259 .293 .363 .289
L.J. Hoes 451 8.6% 18.0% .094 .295 .246 .316 .340 .301
Jimmy Paredes 469 4.3% 26.7% .135 .325 .252 .284 .387 .300
Osvaldo Martinez 409 5.4% 18.1% .053 .275 .226 .271 .279 .248
Derrik Gibson 343 8.2% 23.9% .059 .295 .222 .292 .281 .265
Adrian Marin 490 3.5% 24.3% .088 .292 .225 .257 .313 .264
Julio Borbon 396 4.5% 15.9% .073 .288 .248 .281 .321 .276
Sharlon Schoop 261 5.7% 24.9% .057 .273 .207 .255 .264 .234
Jeff Kemp 398 4.5% 30.7% .084 .290 .206 .251 .290 .243
Mike Yastrzemski 488 5.7% 26.4% .123 .288 .220 .273 .343 .278
Drew Dosch 526 5.7% 24.0% .076 .294 .227 .275 .303 .260
Josh Hart 453 2.6% 27.8% .048 .298 .216 .241 .264 .246

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Manny Machado 601 6.9 133 11 5.9 Aramis Ramirez
Chris Davis 594 7.1 144 2 3.8 Willie Aikens
Adam Jones 642 5.6 113 2 3.5 Vernon Wells
Jonathan Schoop 429 4.8 99 3 1.8 Jeff Kent
Caleb Joseph 398 3.9 83 4 1.6 Nelson Santovenia
Mark Trumbo 527 5.4 115 1 1.4 Ty Wigginton
Matt Wieters 338 4.8 99 -4 1.3 Alan Ashby
Steve Pearce 299 5.4 114 1 1.2 Adam Hyzdu
J.J. Hardy 518 3.6 75 5 1.1 Mike Bordick
Hyeon-soo Kim 577 5.0 103 0 1.1 Carlos Quintana
Francisco Pena 364 3.6 76 4 1.1 Joe Depastino
Trey Mancini 527 5.0 101 5 0.9 Mike Morse
Rey Navarro 490 3.8 81 4 0.8 Ray Navarrete
Gerardo Parra 584 4.4 90 6 0.8 Marlon Byrd
Dariel Alvarez 486 4.6 95 2 0.7 Luis Ortiz
Chance Sisco 443 3.9 81 -7 0.6 Al Lopez
Ryan Flaherty 306 3.8 81 0 0.4 Shanie Dugas
David Lough 312 3.5 75 8 0.3 Tommy McCraw
Rossmel Perez 322 3.6 74 -3 0.3 Larry Gonzales
Corban Joseph 344 3.9 83 -2 0.2 Jack Brohamer
Steve Tolleson 227 3.6 74 0 0.1 Andrew Beattie
Audry Perez 289 3.0 59 1 0.1 Luis Oliveros
Junior Lake 406 3.7 80 4 0.0 Marvin Garrison
Chris Parmelee 425 4.3 93 0 -0.1 John Roskos
Paul Janish 336 2.6 53 4 -0.1 Chris Petersen
Alfredo Marte 413 3.8 80 1 -0.2 Jeremy Slayden
Joey Rickard 413 3.4 71 -3 -0.2 Glenn Reeves
Nolan Reimold 250 3.5 74 1 -0.3 Darrell Whitmore
Quincy Latimore 414 3.5 76 2 -0.3 Ed Smith
Delmon Young 301 4.4 89 -4 -0.3 Glenn Wilson
Sean Halton 462 3.3 71 6 -0.4 Scott Morgan
Christian Walker 526 4.2 90 -1 -0.4 Justin Huber
Henry Urrutia 426 3.8 80 0 -0.5 Jeff Schulz
L.J. Hoes 451 3.8 81 -3 -0.6 Trey Beamon
Jimmy Paredes 469 4.0 82 0 -0.7 Junior Felix
Osvaldo Martinez 409 2.6 52 0 -0.7 Travis Brown
Derrik Gibson 343 2.8 59 -2 -0.7 Scott Tousa
Adrian Marin 490 2.8 56 -1 -0.8 Chris Patten
Julio Borbon 396 3.4 65 -5 -0.8 Terry Blocker
Sharlon Schoop 261 2.3 44 1 -0.9 Chris Tremie
Jeff Kemp 398 2.4 48 3 -1.0 Chase Voshell
Mike Yastrzemski 488 3.1 68 -1 -1.3 Jon Hamilton
Drew Dosch 526 2.9 59 -3 -1.3 Willie Lozado
Josh Hart 453 2.0 39 -2 -2.4 Jeremias Peguero

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Wei-Yin Chen L 30 29 29 170.7 130 37 23 176 80 75
Kevin Gausman R 25 31 25 152.3 126 53 16 151 75 70
Chris Tillman R 28 30 30 174.7 133 60 22 172 91 85
Ubaldo Jimenez R 32 28 28 157.3 143 68 18 151 80 75
Zach Britton L 28 67 0 67.7 70 19 5 55 22 21
Darren O’Day R 33 63 0 59.7 67 15 6 49 20 19
Brad Brach R 30 60 0 76.3 84 33 8 64 32 30
Miguel Gonzalez R 32 25 25 141.7 101 46 23 148 80 75
Oliver Drake R 29 45 0 48.7 57 21 4 41 19 18
Mychal Givens R 26 50 0 74.0 80 33 7 64 32 30
Dylan Bundy R 23 10 10 35.0 29 13 4 34 17 16
Mike Wright R 26 26 24 130.7 88 40 18 142 75 70
Andrew Triggs R 27 45 0 61.7 47 17 6 61 28 26
T.J. McFarland L 27 41 5 78.0 52 26 7 83 40 37
Brian Matusz L 29 61 0 49.7 54 18 6 44 21 20
Dana Eveland L 32 36 7 69.3 51 25 7 72 36 34
Chaz Roe R 29 50 0 60.0 54 24 6 57 28 26
Jeff Beliveau L 29 30 0 29.7 32 13 3 27 13 12
Cesar Cabral L 27 48 0 46.3 42 25 4 43 22 21
Steve Johnson R 28 32 9 74.7 72 37 11 73 43 40
Todd Redmond R 31 35 5 79.3 58 30 9 83 44 41
Vance Worley R 28 24 17 114.3 75 29 18 131 70 65
Chris Jones L 27 31 14 114.0 71 35 17 128 68 64
Jason Stoffel R 27 51 0 60.7 52 28 7 60 32 30
Jon Keller R 23 34 0 69.7 52 31 8 71 37 35
Andy Oliver L 28 45 0 57.7 67 42 7 49 31 29
C.J. Riefenhauser L 26 49 0 57.0 42 22 7 58 31 29
Dane de la Rosa R 33 31 0 29.7 24 16 4 30 18 17
Terry Doyle R 30 28 18 124.7 75 39 20 141 79 74
Tyler Wilson R 26 26 24 132.7 86 38 23 150 85 79
Jason Garcia R 23 25 3 49.3 40 28 8 50 31 29
Elih Villanueva R 29 23 23 120.3 65 37 20 139 78 73
Edgar Olmos L 26 39 2 57.7 39 29 8 62 35 33
Eddie Gamboa R 31 22 18 102.7 70 65 14 109 67 63
Pat McCoy L 27 44 0 62.0 41 23 9 69 37 35
Pedro Beato R 29 53 0 60.7 46 26 10 65 37 35
David Hess R 22 28 27 131.3 96 72 20 139 87 81
Branden Kline R 24 15 15 77.3 46 35 14 91 55 51
Parker Bridwell R 24 21 21 106.7 88 61 18 114 73 68
Chipper Smith L 26 27 15 92.3 68 45 17 104 63 59
Matt Hobgood R 25 20 0 45.3 26 28 6 51 31 29
Christopher Lee L 23 27 22 119.0 67 66 16 135 80 75
Matt Buschmann R 32 23 22 121.0 87 55 22 134 82 77
Tim Berry L 25 23 19 104.3 65 44 19 122 74 69
Mike Belfiore L 27 30 15 99.3 60 44 23 121 78 73
Zack Dodson L 25 24 23 122.3 62 47 25 150 92 86

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Wei-Yin Chen 170.7 725 17.9% 5.1% .288 3.96 4.04 96 97
Kevin Gausman 152.3 661 19.1% 8.0% .292 4.14 3.92 100 94
Chris Tillman 174.7 756 17.6% 7.9% .279 4.38 4.30 106 103
Ubaldo Jimenez 157.3 691 20.7% 9.8% .292 4.29 4.21 104 101
Zach Britton 67.7 277 25.3% 6.9% .275 2.79 2.88 67 69
Darren O’Day 59.7 243 27.6% 6.2% .286 2.87 3.07 69 74
Brad Brach 76.3 326 25.8% 10.1% .280 3.54 3.49 86 84
Miguel Gonzalez 141.7 619 16.3% 7.4% .282 4.76 4.85 115 116
Oliver Drake 48.7 208 27.4% 10.1% .298 3.33 3.25 81 78
Mychal Givens 74.0 319 25.1% 10.3% .292 3.65 3.67 88 88
Dylan Bundy 35.0 152 19.1% 8.6% .288 4.11 4.22 99 101
Mike Wright 130.7 574 15.3% 7.0% .295 4.82 4.61 117 110
Andrew Triggs 61.7 263 17.9% 6.5% .289 3.79 3.77 92 90
T.J. McFarland 78.0 343 15.2% 7.6% .297 4.27 3.86 103 93
Brian Matusz 49.7 211 25.6% 8.5% .292 3.62 3.59 88 86
Dana Eveland 69.3 305 16.7% 8.2% .300 4.41 4.16 107 100
Chaz Roe 60.0 261 20.7% 9.2% .291 3.90 3.81 94 91
Jeff Beliveau 29.7 129 24.8% 10.1% .303 3.64 3.68 88 88
Cesar Cabral 46.3 207 20.3% 12.1% .293 4.08 4.16 99 100
Steve Johnson 74.7 334 21.6% 11.1% .294 4.82 4.66 117 112
Todd Redmond 79.3 351 16.5% 8.5% .295 4.65 4.18 112 100
Vance Worley 114.3 503 14.9% 5.8% .301 5.12 4.68 124 112
Chris Jones 114.0 505 14.1% 6.9% .295 5.05 4.85 122 116
Jason Stoffel 60.7 270 19.3% 10.4% .296 4.45 4.28 108 102
Jon Keller 69.7 311 16.7% 10.0% .292 4.52 4.61 109 110
Andy Oliver 57.7 264 25.4% 15.9% .289 4.53 4.60 110 110
C.J. Riefenhauser 57.0 251 16.7% 8.8% .288 4.58 4.49 111 108
Dane de la Rosa 29.7 135 17.8% 11.8% .289 5.16 4.86 125 116
Terry Doyle 124.7 554 13.5% 7.0% .293 5.34 5.09 129 122
Tyler Wilson 132.7 586 14.7% 6.5% .293 5.36 5.06 130 121
Jason Garcia 49.3 226 17.7% 12.4% .286 5.29 5.42 128 130
Elih Villanueva 120.3 537 12.1% 6.9% .292 5.46 5.28 132 127
Edgar Olmos 57.7 264 14.8% 11.0% .292 5.15 5.12 125 123
Eddie Gamboa 102.7 482 14.5% 13.5% .290 5.52 5.56 134 133
Pat McCoy 62.0 278 14.7% 8.3% .297 5.08 4.88 123 117
Pedro Beato 60.7 273 16.8% 9.5% .292 5.19 5.07 126 121
David Hess 131.3 605 15.9% 11.9% .291 5.55 5.41 134 130
Branden Kline 77.3 358 12.9% 9.8% .297 5.94 5.78 144 139
Parker Bridwell 106.7 495 17.8% 12.3% .298 5.74 5.53 139 133
Chipper Smith 92.3 426 16.0% 10.6% .299 5.75 5.62 139 135
Matt Hobgood 45.3 215 12.1% 13.0% .296 5.76 5.67 139 136
Christopher Lee 119.0 558 12.0% 11.8% .296 5.67 5.57 137 133
Matt Buschmann 121.0 552 15.8% 10.0% .295 5.73 5.57 139 133
Tim Berry 104.3 479 13.6% 9.2% .299 5.95 5.67 144 136
Mike Belfiore 99.3 463 13.0% 9.5% .296 6.61 6.33 160 152
Zack Dodson 122.3 564 11.0% 8.3% .296 6.33 6.05 153 145

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Wei-Yin Chen 170.7 6.85 1.95 1.21 101 2.4 Greg Swindell
Kevin Gausman 152.3 7.45 3.13 0.95 96 1.8 Jim Beattie
Chris Tillman 174.7 6.85 3.09 1.13 91 1.6 Jason Johnson
Ubaldo Jimenez 157.3 8.18 3.89 1.03 93 1.6 Russ Ortiz
Zach Britton 67.7 9.31 2.53 0.66 143 1.2 John Franco
Darren O’Day 59.7 10.10 2.26 0.90 139 1.0 Dave Smith
Brad Brach 76.3 9.91 3.89 0.94 113 0.7 Turk Wendell
Miguel Gonzalez 141.7 6.41 2.92 1.46 84 0.5 Steve McCatty
Oliver Drake 48.7 10.53 3.88 0.74 120 0.5 Ryne Duren
Mychal Givens 74.0 9.73 4.01 0.85 109 0.5 Bryce Florie
Dylan Bundy 35.0 7.46 3.34 1.03 97 0.5 Dallas Braden
Mike Wright 130.7 6.06 2.75 1.24 83 0.4 Leo Estrella
Andrew Triggs 61.7 6.86 2.48 0.88 105 0.4 Rafael Montalvo
T.J. McFarland 78.0 6.00 3.00 0.81 93 0.4 Gabe Gonzalez
Brian Matusz 49.7 9.78 3.26 1.09 110 0.4 Will Ohman
Dana Eveland 69.3 6.62 3.25 0.91 90 0.3 C.J. Nitkowski
Chaz Roe 60.0 8.10 3.60 0.90 102 0.3 Roy Corcoran
Jeff Beliveau 29.7 9.70 3.94 0.91 110 0.2 Armando Almanza
Cesar Cabral 46.3 8.16 4.86 0.78 98 0.1 Thomas Hart
Steve Johnson 74.7 8.67 4.46 1.33 83 0.1 Brian Forystek
Todd Redmond 79.3 6.58 3.40 1.02 86 0.0 Mike Buddie
Vance Worley 114.3 5.91 2.28 1.42 78 -0.1 Matt Ginter
Chris Jones 114.0 5.61 2.76 1.34 79 -0.2 Sam McConnell
Jason Stoffel 60.7 7.71 4.15 1.04 90 -0.2 Tomas Santiago
Jon Keller 69.7 6.71 4.00 1.03 88 -0.2 Julio DePaula
Andy Oliver 57.7 10.45 6.55 1.09 88 -0.3 Greg McCarthy
C.J. Riefenhauser 57.0 6.63 3.47 1.11 87 -0.3 Mark Dempsey
Dane de la Rosa 29.7 7.27 4.85 1.21 77 -0.3 Mike Jeffcoat
Terry Doyle 124.7 5.41 2.81 1.44 75 -0.5 Jason Roach
Tyler Wilson 132.7 5.83 2.58 1.56 74 -0.5 Matt Vasquez
Jason Garcia 49.3 7.30 5.11 1.46 75 -0.5 Agustin Montero
Elih Villanueva 120.3 4.86 2.77 1.50 73 -0.5 Ricardo Rodriguez
Edgar Olmos 57.7 6.08 4.52 1.25 77 -0.5 Dean Brueggemann
Eddie Gamboa 102.7 6.13 5.70 1.23 72 -0.6 Jeff Robinson
Pat McCoy 62.0 5.95 3.34 1.31 79 -0.7 Scott Eibey
Pedro Beato 60.7 6.82 3.86 1.48 77 -0.7 Darren Hall
David Hess 131.3 6.58 4.94 1.37 72 -0.8 Bill Melvin
Branden Kline 77.3 5.36 4.08 1.63 67 -0.8 Jim Henderson
Parker Bridwell 106.7 7.42 5.15 1.52 70 -0.9 Steve Chitren
Chipper Smith 92.3 6.63 4.39 1.66 69 -0.9 Matt White
Matt Hobgood 45.3 5.17 5.56 1.19 69 -0.9 Mark Zamarripa
Christopher Lee 119.0 5.07 4.99 1.21 70 -1.0 Lon Chaney
Matt Buschmann 121.0 6.47 4.09 1.64 70 -1.0 Andy Hawkins
Tim Berry 104.3 5.61 3.80 1.64 67 -1.2 Matt White
Mike Belfiore 99.3 5.44 3.99 2.08 60 -2.0 Mike Raczka
Zack Dodson 122.3 4.56 3.46 1.84 63 -2.0 Doug Lindsey

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2016 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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tehzachatak
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tehzachatak

“That caveat having been made, what one finds upon revisiting last year’s ZiPS post for Baltimore is that the club’s depth-chart projections accounted for roughly 34 WAR — which figure, added to 47.7, equals 81.7.”

SHAME, CISTULLI. SHAME