2016 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Cincinnati / Kansas City / New York AL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
If there’s one thing that irks Dan Szymborski, it’s when people cast aspersions against great Polish-American war hero Casimir Pulaski. If there’s a second thing that irks him, however, it’s when people calculate the sum of the WAR figures displayed in the depth charts of these ZiPS posts, add those totals to 47.7 (i.e. the win total of a hypothetical replacement-level club), and then regard the result as Szymborski’s unambigious win projection for the team in question. Bad form, is what Szymborski has to say about that maneuver.

That caveat having been made, what one finds upon revisiting last year’s ZiPS post for Baltimore is that the club’s depth-chart projections accounted for roughly 34 WAR — which figure, added to 47.7, equals 81.7. Meanwhile, here’s the Orioles’ final record from 2015: 81-81. And their BaseRuns record, also: 79-83. What appears to have happened, at the most basic level, is that Szymborski’s computer regarded Baltimore as almost a perfectly average team and then Baltimore performed like almost a perfectly average team.

This is bad news for the current iteration of the club, which accounts for only about 27 WAR (i.e. seven fewer wins than last year) on the depth chart below. Among the position players, there’s a great deal of uncertainty after Adam Jones and Manny Machado. Indeed, right field and designated hitter actually receive negative-win projections. So, not ideal. That said, there’s some positive uncertainty, as well — particularly in left fielder Hyeon-soo Kim, whose combination of contact ability and power invite comparisons to the best version of Nick Markakis.

Pitchers
The Orioles employ two of the most compelling pitchers, by mere raw talent, in all of baseball. Selected fourth overall in 2011 and 2012, respectively, Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman have both exhibited sufficient stuff and polish as professionals to suggest a promising future. What the projections see, however — for the moment, at least — is a paucity of innings (in Bundy’s case) and a merely average record while working in a swing role (in Gausman’s case). Both will likely have the opportunity this year to build upon their strengths.

With regard to strengths, the Baltimore’s bullpen features the strongest of them. Already celebrated by Eno Sarris in these pages for their various arm actions, the relief corps — especially after retaining the services of Darren O’Day — appears to be among the best in the majors.

Bench/Prospects
With regard to the Orioles, the line between starter and bench player is ambiguous at a number of positions. Absent from the depth-chart image below, Trey Mancini (527 PA, 0.9 zWAR) looks as though he could be of some assistance at either first base or designated hitter. Rey Navarro (490 PA, 0.8 zWAR) appears capable of offering some multipositional help, as well, although he was recently DFA’d. Among pitchers, right-hander Oliver Drake (48.2 IP, 0.5 zWAR) is a candidate to augment the already talented relief staff.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Orioles, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Manny Machado	R	23	3B	601	80	154	26	1	28	72	16	5
Chris Davis	L	30	1B	594	85	138	25	0	42	109	2	3
Adam Jones	R	30	CF	642	84	167	30	3	29	94	7	2
Jonathan Schoop	R	24	2B	429	47	106	19	0	18	50	2	1
Caleb Joseph	R	30	C	398	38	87	17	1	12	49	1	1
Mark Trumbo	R	30	1B	527	66	125	22	2	28	88	2	2
Matt Wieters	B	30	C	338	33	78	15	1	12	41	1	0
Steve Pearce	R	33	LF	299	36	66	15	1	13	37	2	1
J.J. Hardy	R	33	SS	518	51	120	21	0	11	50	0	0
Hyeon-soo Kim	L	28	LF	577	66	138	21	0	17	64	5	2
Francisco Pena	R	26	C	364	38	81	15	1	10	42	2	2
Trey Mancini	R	24	1B	527	62	138	27	4	14	65	4	2
Rey Navarro	B	26	2B	490	53	116	22	2	9	45	4	5
Gerardo Parra	L	29	RF	584	71	142	28	4	10	46	11	6
Dariel Alvarez	R	27	RF	486	54	126	22	2	15	55	5	3
Chance Sisco	L	21	C	443	43	101	16	2	7	38	4	2
Ryan Flaherty	L	29	2B	306	33	61	11	2	9	35	1	0
David Lough	L	30	LF	312	34	71	9	3	6	28	7	5
Rossmel Perez	L	26	C	322	29	78	9	1	2	25	2	2
Corban Joseph	L	27	2B	344	38	80	13	1	8	36	2	3
Steve Tolleson	R	32	2B	227	24	48	9	1	3	17	5	2
Audry Perez	R	27	C	289	24	67	11	0	4	24	0	0
Junior Lake	R	26	LF	406	42	89	17	1	10	36	12	8
Chris Parmelee	L	28	1B	425	43	94	20	1	13	45	1	2
Paul Janish	R	33	SS	336	27	69	11	2	1	19	1	2
Alfredo Marte	R	27	RF	413	43	90	18	2	9	44	4	2
Joey Rickard	R	25	CF	413	42	84	16	2	3	31	13	5
Nolan Reimold	R	32	LF	250	24	50	9	0	5	22	2	1
Quincy Latimore	R	27	RF	414	44	83	16	3	13	44	5	4
Delmon Young	R	30	RF	301	29	77	12	0	8	34	1	0
Sean Halton	R	29	LF	462	43	95	21	1	9	44	2	2
Christian Walker	R	25	1B	526	56	118	23	1	18	60	1	2
Henry Urrutia	L	29	LF	426	40	104	17	2	7	40	1	2
L.J. Hoes	R	26	RF	451	49	100	19	2	5	37	12	6
Jimmy Paredes	B	27	DH	469	52	112	21	3	11	51	12	5
Osvaldo Martinez	R	28	SS	409	35	86	12	1	2	27	6	3
Derrik Gibson	R	26	2B	343	31	68	8	2	2	20	6	4
Adrian Marin	R	22	SS	490	43	105	20	3	5	37	18	10
Julio Borbon	L	30	CF	396	37	92	9	3	4	26	17	6
Sharlon Schoop	R	29	2B	261	21	50	8	0	2	16	1	1
Jeff Kemp	R	26	2B	398	34	76	14	1	5	27	4	3
Mike Yastrzemski	L	25	LF	488	46	99	21	5	8	44	7	6
Drew Dosch	L	24	3B	526	46	111	14	4	5	38	4	3
Josh Hart	L	21	CF	453	33	94	11	2	2	25	22	15

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Manny Machado	601	9.5%	15.8%	.209	.304	.288	.359	.497	.375
Chris Davis	594	10.4%	30.5%	.291	.319	.265	.350	.556	.380
Adam Jones	642	3.6%	18.4%	.203	.299	.276	.312	.479	.341
Jonathan Schoop	429	3.3%	24.2%	.180	.309	.262	.295	.442	.318
Caleb Joseph	398	5.8%	21.9%	.150	.278	.238	.286	.388	.291
Mark Trumbo	527	7.2%	23.9%	.227	.290	.258	.311	.485	.339
Matt Wieters	338	7.7%	19.5%	.173	.282	.254	.308	.427	.316
Steve Pearce	299	8.7%	20.1%	.211	.273	.249	.328	.460	.342
J.J. Hardy	518	4.8%	16.4%	.111	.277	.247	.283	.358	.278
Hyeon-soo Kim	577	8.5%	14.6%	.140	.287	.267	.334	.407	.322
Francisco Pena	364	4.1%	18.7%	.137	.267	.238	.273	.375	.282
Trey Mancini	527	4.2%	22.4%	.155	.334	.277	.307	.432	.319
Rey Navarro	490	4.9%	14.1%	.117	.280	.254	.291	.371	.291
Gerardo Parra	584	5.7%	15.9%	.123	.301	.264	.309	.387	.304
Dariel Alvarez	486	2.7%	14.8%	.153	.291	.271	.294	.424	.314
Chance Sisco	443	7.2%	22.3%	.101	.312	.249	.308	.350	.293
Ryan Flaherty	306	7.5%	23.9%	.153	.267	.222	.289	.375	.286
David Lough	312	3.8%	17.6%	.114	.281	.246	.280	.360	.285
Rossmel Perez	322	5.9%	9.0%	.057	.284	.264	.309	.321	.280
Corban Joseph	344	5.8%	14.0%	.122	.273	.251	.298	.373	.297
Steve Tolleson	227	7.5%	22.5%	.099	.298	.236	.299	.335	.286
Audry Perez	289	2.1%	16.6%	.083	.276	.240	.258	.323	.252
Junior Lake	406	6.7%	29.1%	.131	.319	.238	.291	.369	.303
Chris Parmelee	425	7.8%	23.5%	.158	.293	.244	.306	.402	.310
Paul Janish	336	5.7%	16.4%	.059	.267	.223	.273	.282	.249
Alfredo Marte	413	6.5%	24.5%	.130	.298	.237	.293	.367	.292
Joey Rickard	413	8.5%	21.5%	.079	.293	.231	.307	.310	.287
Nolan Reimold	250	9.2%	26.4%	.108	.292	.224	.300	.332	.283
Quincy Latimore	414	6.3%	29.7%	.160	.283	.218	.272	.378	.286
Delmon Young	301	3.3%	18.9%	.126	.309	.269	.299	.395	.302
Sean Halton	462	6.3%	24.2%	.119	.281	.225	.281	.344	.276
Christian Walker	526	6.3%	27.2%	.162	.305	.243	.295	.405	.305
Henry Urrutia	426	4.9%	20.0%	.104	.310	.259	.293	.363	.289
L.J. Hoes	451	8.6%	18.0%	.094	.295	.246	.316	.340	.301
Jimmy Paredes	469	4.3%	26.7%	.135	.325	.252	.284	.387	.300
Osvaldo Martinez	409	5.4%	18.1%	.053	.275	.226	.271	.279	.248
Derrik Gibson	343	8.2%	23.9%	.059	.295	.222	.292	.281	.265
Adrian Marin	490	3.5%	24.3%	.088	.292	.225	.257	.313	.264
Julio Borbon	396	4.5%	15.9%	.073	.288	.248	.281	.321	.276
Sharlon Schoop	261	5.7%	24.9%	.057	.273	.207	.255	.264	.234
Jeff Kemp	398	4.5%	30.7%	.084	.290	.206	.251	.290	.243
Mike Yastrzemski	488	5.7%	26.4%	.123	.288	.220	.273	.343	.278
Drew Dosch	526	5.7%	24.0%	.076	.294	.227	.275	.303	.260
Josh Hart	453	2.6%	27.8%	.048	.298	.216	.241	.264	.246

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Manny Machado	601	6.9	133	11	5.9	Aramis Ramirez
Chris Davis	594	7.1	144	2	3.8	Willie Aikens
Adam Jones	642	5.6	113	2	3.5	Vernon Wells
Jonathan Schoop	429	4.8	99	3	1.8	Jeff Kent
Caleb Joseph	398	3.9	83	4	1.6	Nelson Santovenia
Mark Trumbo	527	5.4	115	1	1.4	Ty Wigginton
Matt Wieters	338	4.8	99	-4	1.3	Alan Ashby
Steve Pearce	299	5.4	114	1	1.2	Adam Hyzdu
J.J. Hardy	518	3.6	75	5	1.1	Mike Bordick
Hyeon-soo Kim	577	5.0	103	0	1.1	Carlos Quintana
Francisco Pena	364	3.6	76	4	1.1	Joe Depastino
Trey Mancini	527	5.0	101	5	0.9	Mike Morse
Rey Navarro	490	3.8	81	4	0.8	Ray Navarrete
Gerardo Parra	584	4.4	90	6	0.8	Marlon Byrd
Dariel Alvarez	486	4.6	95	2	0.7	Luis Ortiz
Chance Sisco	443	3.9	81	-7	0.6	Al Lopez
Ryan Flaherty	306	3.8	81	0	0.4	Shanie Dugas
David Lough	312	3.5	75	8	0.3	Tommy McCraw
Rossmel Perez	322	3.6	74	-3	0.3	Larry Gonzales
Corban Joseph	344	3.9	83	-2	0.2	Jack Brohamer
Steve Tolleson	227	3.6	74	0	0.1	Andrew Beattie
Audry Perez	289	3.0	59	1	0.1	Luis Oliveros
Junior Lake	406	3.7	80	4	0.0	Marvin Garrison
Chris Parmelee	425	4.3	93	0	-0.1	John Roskos
Paul Janish	336	2.6	53	4	-0.1	Chris Petersen
Alfredo Marte	413	3.8	80	1	-0.2	Jeremy Slayden
Joey Rickard	413	3.4	71	-3	-0.2	Glenn Reeves
Nolan Reimold	250	3.5	74	1	-0.3	Darrell Whitmore
Quincy Latimore	414	3.5	76	2	-0.3	Ed Smith
Delmon Young	301	4.4	89	-4	-0.3	Glenn Wilson
Sean Halton	462	3.3	71	6	-0.4	Scott Morgan
Christian Walker	526	4.2	90	-1	-0.4	Justin Huber
Henry Urrutia	426	3.8	80	0	-0.5	Jeff Schulz
L.J. Hoes	451	3.8	81	-3	-0.6	Trey Beamon
Jimmy Paredes	469	4.0	82	0	-0.7	Junior Felix
Osvaldo Martinez	409	2.6	52	0	-0.7	Travis Brown
Derrik Gibson	343	2.8	59	-2	-0.7	Scott Tousa
Adrian Marin	490	2.8	56	-1	-0.8	Chris Patten
Julio Borbon	396	3.4	65	-5	-0.8	Terry Blocker
Sharlon Schoop	261	2.3	44	1	-0.9	Chris Tremie
Jeff Kemp	398	2.4	48	3	-1.0	Chase Voshell
Mike Yastrzemski	488	3.1	68	-1	-1.3	Jon Hamilton
Drew Dosch	526	2.9	59	-3	-1.3	Willie Lozado
Josh Hart	453	2.0	39	-2	-2.4	Jeremias Peguero

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Wei-Yin Chen	L	30	29	29	170.7	130	37	23	176	80	75
Kevin Gausman	R	25	31	25	152.3	126	53	16	151	75	70
Chris Tillman	R	28	30	30	174.7	133	60	22	172	91	85
Ubaldo Jimenez	R	32	28	28	157.3	143	68	18	151	80	75
Zach Britton	L	28	67	0	67.7	70	19	5	55	22	21
Darren O’Day	R	33	63	0	59.7	67	15	6	49	20	19
Brad Brach	R	30	60	0	76.3	84	33	8	64	32	30
Miguel Gonzalez	R	32	25	25	141.7	101	46	23	148	80	75
Oliver Drake	R	29	45	0	48.7	57	21	4	41	19	18
Mychal Givens	R	26	50	0	74.0	80	33	7	64	32	30
Dylan Bundy	R	23	10	10	35.0	29	13	4	34	17	16
Mike Wright	R	26	26	24	130.7	88	40	18	142	75	70
Andrew Triggs	R	27	45	0	61.7	47	17	6	61	28	26
T.J. McFarland	L	27	41	5	78.0	52	26	7	83	40	37
Brian Matusz	L	29	61	0	49.7	54	18	6	44	21	20
Dana Eveland	L	32	36	7	69.3	51	25	7	72	36	34
Chaz Roe	R	29	50	0	60.0	54	24	6	57	28	26
Jeff Beliveau	L	29	30	0	29.7	32	13	3	27	13	12
Cesar Cabral	L	27	48	0	46.3	42	25	4	43	22	21
Steve Johnson	R	28	32	9	74.7	72	37	11	73	43	40
Todd Redmond	R	31	35	5	79.3	58	30	9	83	44	41
Vance Worley	R	28	24	17	114.3	75	29	18	131	70	65
Chris Jones	L	27	31	14	114.0	71	35	17	128	68	64
Jason Stoffel	R	27	51	0	60.7	52	28	7	60	32	30
Jon Keller	R	23	34	0	69.7	52	31	8	71	37	35
Andy Oliver	L	28	45	0	57.7	67	42	7	49	31	29
C.J. Riefenhauser	L	26	49	0	57.0	42	22	7	58	31	29
Dane de la Rosa	R	33	31	0	29.7	24	16	4	30	18	17
Terry Doyle	R	30	28	18	124.7	75	39	20	141	79	74
Tyler Wilson	R	26	26	24	132.7	86	38	23	150	85	79
Jason Garcia	R	23	25	3	49.3	40	28	8	50	31	29
Elih Villanueva	R	29	23	23	120.3	65	37	20	139	78	73
Edgar Olmos	L	26	39	2	57.7	39	29	8	62	35	33
Eddie Gamboa	R	31	22	18	102.7	70	65	14	109	67	63
Pat McCoy	L	27	44	0	62.0	41	23	9	69	37	35
Pedro Beato	R	29	53	0	60.7	46	26	10	65	37	35
David Hess	R	22	28	27	131.3	96	72	20	139	87	81
Branden Kline	R	24	15	15	77.3	46	35	14	91	55	51
Parker Bridwell	R	24	21	21	106.7	88	61	18	114	73	68
Chipper Smith	L	26	27	15	92.3	68	45	17	104	63	59
Matt Hobgood	R	25	20	0	45.3	26	28	6	51	31	29
Christopher Lee	L	23	27	22	119.0	67	66	16	135	80	75
Matt Buschmann	R	32	23	22	121.0	87	55	22	134	82	77
Tim Berry	L	25	23	19	104.3	65	44	19	122	74	69
Mike Belfiore	L	27	30	15	99.3	60	44	23	121	78	73
Zack Dodson	L	25	24	23	122.3	62	47	25	150	92	86

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Wei-Yin Chen	170.7	725	17.9%	5.1%	.288	3.96	4.04	96	97
Kevin Gausman	152.3	661	19.1%	8.0%	.292	4.14	3.92	100	94
Chris Tillman	174.7	756	17.6%	7.9%	.279	4.38	4.30	106	103
Ubaldo Jimenez	157.3	691	20.7%	9.8%	.292	4.29	4.21	104	101
Zach Britton	67.7	277	25.3%	6.9%	.275	2.79	2.88	67	69
Darren O’Day	59.7	243	27.6%	6.2%	.286	2.87	3.07	69	74
Brad Brach	76.3	326	25.8%	10.1%	.280	3.54	3.49	86	84
Miguel Gonzalez	141.7	619	16.3%	7.4%	.282	4.76	4.85	115	116
Oliver Drake	48.7	208	27.4%	10.1%	.298	3.33	3.25	81	78
Mychal Givens	74.0	319	25.1%	10.3%	.292	3.65	3.67	88	88
Dylan Bundy	35.0	152	19.1%	8.6%	.288	4.11	4.22	99	101
Mike Wright	130.7	574	15.3%	7.0%	.295	4.82	4.61	117	110
Andrew Triggs	61.7	263	17.9%	6.5%	.289	3.79	3.77	92	90
T.J. McFarland	78.0	343	15.2%	7.6%	.297	4.27	3.86	103	93
Brian Matusz	49.7	211	25.6%	8.5%	.292	3.62	3.59	88	86
Dana Eveland	69.3	305	16.7%	8.2%	.300	4.41	4.16	107	100
Chaz Roe	60.0	261	20.7%	9.2%	.291	3.90	3.81	94	91
Jeff Beliveau	29.7	129	24.8%	10.1%	.303	3.64	3.68	88	88
Cesar Cabral	46.3	207	20.3%	12.1%	.293	4.08	4.16	99	100
Steve Johnson	74.7	334	21.6%	11.1%	.294	4.82	4.66	117	112
Todd Redmond	79.3	351	16.5%	8.5%	.295	4.65	4.18	112	100
Vance Worley	114.3	503	14.9%	5.8%	.301	5.12	4.68	124	112
Chris Jones	114.0	505	14.1%	6.9%	.295	5.05	4.85	122	116
Jason Stoffel	60.7	270	19.3%	10.4%	.296	4.45	4.28	108	102
Jon Keller	69.7	311	16.7%	10.0%	.292	4.52	4.61	109	110
Andy Oliver	57.7	264	25.4%	15.9%	.289	4.53	4.60	110	110
C.J. Riefenhauser	57.0	251	16.7%	8.8%	.288	4.58	4.49	111	108
Dane de la Rosa	29.7	135	17.8%	11.8%	.289	5.16	4.86	125	116
Terry Doyle	124.7	554	13.5%	7.0%	.293	5.34	5.09	129	122
Tyler Wilson	132.7	586	14.7%	6.5%	.293	5.36	5.06	130	121
Jason Garcia	49.3	226	17.7%	12.4%	.286	5.29	5.42	128	130
Elih Villanueva	120.3	537	12.1%	6.9%	.292	5.46	5.28	132	127
Edgar Olmos	57.7	264	14.8%	11.0%	.292	5.15	5.12	125	123
Eddie Gamboa	102.7	482	14.5%	13.5%	.290	5.52	5.56	134	133
Pat McCoy	62.0	278	14.7%	8.3%	.297	5.08	4.88	123	117
Pedro Beato	60.7	273	16.8%	9.5%	.292	5.19	5.07	126	121
David Hess	131.3	605	15.9%	11.9%	.291	5.55	5.41	134	130
Branden Kline	77.3	358	12.9%	9.8%	.297	5.94	5.78	144	139
Parker Bridwell	106.7	495	17.8%	12.3%	.298	5.74	5.53	139	133
Chipper Smith	92.3	426	16.0%	10.6%	.299	5.75	5.62	139	135
Matt Hobgood	45.3	215	12.1%	13.0%	.296	5.76	5.67	139	136
Christopher Lee	119.0	558	12.0%	11.8%	.296	5.67	5.57	137	133
Matt Buschmann	121.0	552	15.8%	10.0%	.295	5.73	5.57	139	133
Tim Berry	104.3	479	13.6%	9.2%	.299	5.95	5.67	144	136
Mike Belfiore	99.3	463	13.0%	9.5%	.296	6.61	6.33	160	152
Zack Dodson	122.3	564	11.0%	8.3%	.296	6.33	6.05	153	145

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Wei-Yin Chen	170.7	6.85	1.95	1.21	101	2.4	Greg Swindell
Kevin Gausman	152.3	7.45	3.13	0.95	96	1.8	Jim Beattie
Chris Tillman	174.7	6.85	3.09	1.13	91	1.6	Jason Johnson
Ubaldo Jimenez	157.3	8.18	3.89	1.03	93	1.6	Russ Ortiz
Zach Britton	67.7	9.31	2.53	0.66	143	1.2	John Franco
Darren O’Day	59.7	10.10	2.26	0.90	139	1.0	Dave Smith
Brad Brach	76.3	9.91	3.89	0.94	113	0.7	Turk Wendell
Miguel Gonzalez	141.7	6.41	2.92	1.46	84	0.5	Steve McCatty
Oliver Drake	48.7	10.53	3.88	0.74	120	0.5	Ryne Duren
Mychal Givens	74.0	9.73	4.01	0.85	109	0.5	Bryce Florie
Dylan Bundy	35.0	7.46	3.34	1.03	97	0.5	Dallas Braden
Mike Wright	130.7	6.06	2.75	1.24	83	0.4	Leo Estrella
Andrew Triggs	61.7	6.86	2.48	0.88	105	0.4	Rafael Montalvo
T.J. McFarland	78.0	6.00	3.00	0.81	93	0.4	Gabe Gonzalez
Brian Matusz	49.7	9.78	3.26	1.09	110	0.4	Will Ohman
Dana Eveland	69.3	6.62	3.25	0.91	90	0.3	C.J. Nitkowski
Chaz Roe	60.0	8.10	3.60	0.90	102	0.3	Roy Corcoran
Jeff Beliveau	29.7	9.70	3.94	0.91	110	0.2	Armando Almanza
Cesar Cabral	46.3	8.16	4.86	0.78	98	0.1	Thomas Hart
Steve Johnson	74.7	8.67	4.46	1.33	83	0.1	Brian Forystek
Todd Redmond	79.3	6.58	3.40	1.02	86	0.0	Mike Buddie
Vance Worley	114.3	5.91	2.28	1.42	78	-0.1	Matt Ginter
Chris Jones	114.0	5.61	2.76	1.34	79	-0.2	Sam McConnell
Jason Stoffel	60.7	7.71	4.15	1.04	90	-0.2	Tomas Santiago
Jon Keller	69.7	6.71	4.00	1.03	88	-0.2	Julio DePaula
Andy Oliver	57.7	10.45	6.55	1.09	88	-0.3	Greg McCarthy
C.J. Riefenhauser	57.0	6.63	3.47	1.11	87	-0.3	Mark Dempsey
Dane de la Rosa	29.7	7.27	4.85	1.21	77	-0.3	Mike Jeffcoat
Terry Doyle	124.7	5.41	2.81	1.44	75	-0.5	Jason Roach
Tyler Wilson	132.7	5.83	2.58	1.56	74	-0.5	Matt Vasquez
Jason Garcia	49.3	7.30	5.11	1.46	75	-0.5	Agustin Montero
Elih Villanueva	120.3	4.86	2.77	1.50	73	-0.5	Ricardo Rodriguez
Edgar Olmos	57.7	6.08	4.52	1.25	77	-0.5	Dean Brueggemann
Eddie Gamboa	102.7	6.13	5.70	1.23	72	-0.6	Jeff Robinson
Pat McCoy	62.0	5.95	3.34	1.31	79	-0.7	Scott Eibey
Pedro Beato	60.7	6.82	3.86	1.48	77	-0.7	Darren Hall
David Hess	131.3	6.58	4.94	1.37	72	-0.8	Bill Melvin
Branden Kline	77.3	5.36	4.08	1.63	67	-0.8	Jim Henderson
Parker Bridwell	106.7	7.42	5.15	1.52	70	-0.9	Steve Chitren
Chipper Smith	92.3	6.63	4.39	1.66	69	-0.9	Matt White
Matt Hobgood	45.3	5.17	5.56	1.19	69	-0.9	Mark Zamarripa
Christopher Lee	119.0	5.07	4.99	1.21	70	-1.0	Lon Chaney
Matt Buschmann	121.0	6.47	4.09	1.64	70	-1.0	Andy Hawkins
Tim Berry	104.3	5.61	3.80	1.64	67	-1.2	Matt White
Mike Belfiore	99.3	5.44	3.99	2.08	60	-2.0	Mike Raczka
Zack Dodson	122.3	4.56	3.46	1.84	63	-2.0	Doug Lindsey

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.