Let’s Find a New Team for Yoenis Cespedes
The Boston Red Sox, as you might have heard, currently have an outfield glut. There is ten pounds of outfield meat in their five pound bag. Something has to give, and that something is likely Yoenis Cespedes.
When the Sox acquired Cespedes from Oakland in the Jon Lester trade, it felt more like a rental than a long-term investment in the player. Cespedes’ unique contract allows him to become a free agent at the end of the 2015 season, so Boston put themselves in an enviable position. They received an established big leaguer in exchange for their walk-year ace and got an up-close and personal look at a potential big free agent bat.
Whether or not a look under Cespedes’ hood informed their decision to sign both Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, that’s the route they went down. Now Cespedes is trade bait, the precious “right-handed power” commodity in a marketplace clambering for those skills. He’s headed into his age-29 season, he’s owed $10.5 million this year, and there’s going to be a line around the block to bid for his services. Where might he land?
Seattle Mariners
The zeal with which the Mariners pursue right-handed power is well established. While some Mariners watchers prefer the likes of Shane Victorino, Cespedes is a nice fit for the power stricken Mariners. Trading one of their young arms (like Taijuan Walker) doesn’t necessarily suit Boston’s needs, but what about Hisashi Iwakuma?
Like Cespedes, Iwakuma can become a free agent after the 2015 season. Like Cespedes, he’s projected to produce around 3 Wins Above Replacement next season. Like Cespedes, the terms of his contact are downright reasonable, with $7 million coming to the Japanese hurler next year.
It’s a decent fit, but the Mariners believe themselves a playoff team, so dealing their second-best pitcher doesn’t exactly help them achieve that lofty goal. A straight swap might be a little light on the Mariners end, but their outfield/DH options are such that addressing that weakness in a significant way might be worth the risk of depleting your rotation. Or it would be if their rotation depth wasn’t equally as thin. The Mariners aren’t swimming in extra arms, so while this move would help Boston, it probably just changes the Mariners weaknesses rather than eliminating them.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto seems all but resigned to the departure of Melky Cabrera. After signing Russell Martin to a backloaded contract, the Jays have some money to spend. But do they have the pieces to make a deal? They have Dioner Navarro, a valuable commodity as an everyday catcher earning relative pittance. They have durable starters like J.A. Happ, Mark Buehrle and even R.A. Dickey, though the idea of Happ pitching at Fenway Park is not for the faint of heart (to say nothing of the other two.)
The Jays have the needs but, considering their own run at the division title, aren’t likely to provide their chief rivals with a big league ready piece as they both pursue the same division title, gutting their own rotation in the process.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are a match for Cespedes in that they claim the pending FA pitchers that might best help the Red Sox. But the Reds are a team in flux, one that is probably retooling to build around Joey Votto and have little use for a one year rental outfielder.
Cincy might best serve as a go-between, a third party that can provide Boston the pitching they need, another team the outfielder they desire while netting a more controllable asset for their own future.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants have plenty of off-season work ahead. Between plugging the hole at third base, finding an extra trophy room to accommodate their assortment of World Series tchotkes, and figuring out left field, Brian Sabean doesn’t have much time to spare. The Giants have a hole but lack the materials to see it filled, presuming the Red Sox don’t want prospects (not that the Giants have too much in the way of prospect capital anyway.)
The Giants might lineup in a similar way to the Reds, a third party that can’t directly help the Red Sox but might work well with a third party looking for a younger arm or more years of control. (see also: the Chicago White Sox.)
Baltimore Orioles
Nelson Cruz is cool and all, but do you know what’s really cool? Think Nelson Cruz, but YOUNGER! If the Orioles can’t retain the services of their gift from the pillow contract gods, and if Nick Markakis‘ contract situation isn’t resolved quickly, perhaps the O’s could provide the teeny ballpark and Showalter Magic Cespedes needs as he heads towards free agency.
Like the Blue Jays, the Orioles are division rival keen on defend their AL East crown. Perhaps dealing big league ready talent to a rival isn’t in their best interests? As nice a fit as it appears on the surface, it feels unlikely that the two teams (even with another trade partner) could consummate a fair deal.
Texas Rangers
On a pure need basis, this might be the best fit. The Rangers currently project dead last in right fielder WAR, and that’s with Steamer projecting a significant improvement from Michael Choice over his dreadful 2015 performance. There’s no way the Rangers can go into next year with Choice as their primary right fielder, and Cespedes would offer a nice right-handed complement to Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo in the middle of Texas’ line-up.
Jon Daniels has openly said he prefers to fill the team’s needs via the trade route, so it seems likely that he’s at least checked in on the Red Sox glut of outfielders. The problem is that there isn’t an obvious match here for the Red Sox; the Rangers also lack starting pitching depth, and their primary trade assets are middle infielders, which the Red Sox don’t need. But perhaps Texas makes sense as the landing spot for Cespedes if Boston goes the three-way deal route, bringing in a team that has young pitching but could use some middle infield depth.
That sounds like the Mets. Three way trades are complicated, but perhaps there’s a deal to be made that sends an arm or two from New York to Boston, ships Cespedes to Texas, and puts one of the Rangers young middle infielders in Queens.
The Upton Factor
There is one important factor to consider when guessing on Cespedes landing spots: Justin Upton. Like the Cuban outfielder, Upton can become a free agent at the end of the 2015 season. Like Cespedes, he’s a right-hand hitting outfielder with a lot of pop. Upton has $14.5MM remaining on his contract. He’s also, conservatively speaking, a better hitter.
But is he a better player? And is he a better player to the extent that, for the next season, he should cost significantly more in terms of a trade return? That’s another story. Over the last three seasons, the two players compare quite nicely, with Upton getting on base at a greater clip but Cespedes providing more value on the defensive side.
| PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Upton | 1912 | 73 | 34 | 10.4% | 23.7% | .191 | .271 | .350 | .462 | .354 | 124 | 9.1 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 1759 | 71 | 30 | 6.5% | 20.9% | .201 | .263 | .316 | .464 | .336 | 115 | 8.5 |
Upton is two years younger, so he figures to deliver more peak years as a free agent, but this is about 2015, and both players have come this far; free agency beckons.
Steamer projects the two to put up comparable numbers in 2015, forecasting a .272/.324/.473 slash line, good for a .347 wOBA and around three Wins for Cespedes, with Upton coming in at .262/.344/.460, 353 wOBA and 3 WAR of his own. Both players are sporadic performers but Cespedes has a harder time staying on the field, playing in 150 games for the first time in 2014. Upton’s avoided injury since 2010, when he missed time due to a sore left shoulder.
The two players offer similar skills at a similar price, but the perception of the two feels quite different. As much as Red Sox fans use the trade haul for Jason Heyward as their basis for a fair package in exchange for Cespedes, they’re likely to be disappointed. Unless the value for right-handed power is even greater than we believe.
Put another way, any team engaging the Red Sox on Cespedes is likely having the same conversation with the Braves on Upton. Which player would you rather trade assets for? Just by name alone, surely Upton nets a bigger return. But given the state of the game right now and the demonstrated power thirst, the price for either of these players could escalate.
Drew used to write about baseball and other things at theScore but now he writes here. Follow him on twitter @DrewGROF
I’ve been saying Iwakuma for Cespedes for awhile. Perhaps Boston deals a prospect in that too because I think Iwakuma’s value is ahead of Cespedes
But then I had 2nd thoughts, maybe the Sox add Victorino in that deal and eat most of his $, and then the Mariners can add a prospect (low level of course)
Mariners OFers last year had a 1.1 WAR which is awful. Cesepdes + Victorino (if healthy and ready of course) + A-Jax is probably at least a 6 WAR right there.
Iwakuma for Cespedes makes sense in that it’s an exchange of 3 WAR players who can be free agents after 2015. But as noted, it doesn’t help the Mariners, simply moving a hole from OF/DH to the starting rotation. The Red Sox would have to throw in a second RH OF or a prospect to make it interesting.
While the M’s OF was terrible last year, they actually project to 3 2 WAR players for 2015.
Surprised not to see the Cubs on the list. The Cubs believe they’re contenders and are pretty barren in the OF. They’re one of the few teams that could use 2 of the Red Sox outfielders.
“The Red Sox would have to throw in a second RH OF”
That’s why I mentioned Victorino
They can replace Iwakuma with a FA SP’er like McCarthy, Liriano, Capuano, Masterson, etc all of whom are available as FA and won’t cost as much as the elite SP’ers, or they coud go after Shields
You could also look to expand this deal, the Red Sox have several SPs at the higher level/MLB level that appear useful as mid to back end arms, they could send Cespedes and Renaudo/Workman/De La Rosa to SEA in exchange for Iwakuma and miller/Taylor/another prospect? Just a thought.
Dealing Iwakuma period is a non-starter for the Mariners. He has been outstanding in stretches, seriously one of the best pitchers in the game. Numbers on paper don’t really capture how effective he has been for the large parts of both of the last two seasons. Nobody expecting to contend, which the Mariners are seriously hoping to do, moves an arm of that quality. There is no comparable replacement at any reasonable cost, either in their system or on the market. If the Ms were going in big long term for somebody like Lester, than moving Kuma makes sense on paper, but that’s a dumb place for the Ms to spend large money right now with so many other needs.
Iwakuma may only be under contract for another year, but he likes Seattle a lot, and the odds on re-signing him here are significant. The only concern with Iwakuma is age-related decline and whether to move him if there is a worry on that. Nothing stands out there, even though he’s faded in both of the past two Septembers. Iwakuma is simply more valuable than Cespedes. I’m inclined to say he’s more valuable than Upton for that matter, but I don’t see him being moved for a one-year rental regardless, not least since the Ms FO has made clear negative noises regarding overpaying for one-year guys.
The guy to go after on the Mariners staff is Roenis Elias. While I don’t know that he’s available given he has five years of service time, he was reasonably good and is a LHP, and is the most likely dealable arm in Seattle. Of course, nobody wants the doable guy as opposed to the shoot-the-moon guy.
Regarding the concepts in the post, a triangular deal with Boston-Texas-Cincy/NYM does seem a sound construct.
I still see Baltimore as a very interested party to acquire Cespedes, who is better all-around than Cruz, cheaper, and a great fit for park and need. They are (or should be) all in to win in 2015 having already made the playoffs. The only issue is what/who would interest Boston back. One obvious possibility occurs there: Matt Weiters. He’s another walk year guy, and yes he was hurt. He’s pretty valuable when healthy, could solidify the backstop for Boston. Yes, ‘helping’ Baltimore wouldn’t be a great objective for Boston, but how about helping themselves more? Weiters and a bullpen bit maybe, while clearing outfield room looks pretty good for Boston, to me. A fine starting pitcher for Cespedes looks even better of course, but seriously: that just isn’t going to happen. A guy who looks broken but fixable like Shelby Miller or Rodriguez from Baltimore at the 2013 deadline, yeah, _that_ could happen. But a quality arm like Iwakuma? Fugeddaboudit.
Unlike with Cespedes, the team that acquires Upton can make him a qualifying offer, thus making Upton more valuable for a 1 year rental.
Qualifying offer would net a pick in the 30-40 range, which is worth about $5m if I remember correctly. The difference in salary between them is about $4m, so essentially the salary difference covers the QO, its just a matter of who is the better player?
With just one year left, I have a hard time believing the salaries will really come into the decision. If a team has $9MM to spend, they likely have $14.5MM to spend. When it comes to Upton/Cespedes, I think teams are probably 95% concerned with the production they’ll get in 2015, and maybe 5% concerned with salaries. As noted in the article, most teams that are shopping for Upton are also shopping for Cespedes, and vice versa.
Its obviously a 1 on 1 fit for Hamels, maybe throw a bat or two.
hamels is worth more
Cespedes plus Bradley might make sense though.
Hope this is sarcasm (sorry it’s hard to tell on a keyboard), but assuming it Isn’t, why would the Phillies trade their ace for a 1 year rental (who can’t be offered a Qualifying offer by the way) and while it’s too early to tell how his future holds, a guy who As Of Now can’t do anything with the bat?
I’m sorry, you missed your window Amaro is no longer fully in charge.
Not even remotely close. What use do the Phils have for a one-year rental?
Little. But clearing Hamels’ contract from their books is a worthwhile goal.
Spoken like a true Red Sox fan. Noone is getting Hamels without ponying up a top prospect. Period.
This isn’t fantasy baseball. The Phils signed Hamels for a market-value deal. That means his trade value is approximately zero as soon as he signs the deal. If the Phils were to get Cespedes they could see if he was a good fit in Philly and sign him if they want- or dump him again at the trade deadline. However, Bradley or another good young player would have to be in the deal too.
Phillies do not need Monet it is the lack of talent that is dooming this aging club. By 2016 they will need a new c, 1b, 2b,and 3of and 4sp and the. Minor is still one of the bottom 10 with only 2 or 3 standout prospects. The phillies needs a lot to be a 70 win team in 2016. And salary relieve does not hlp
Hamels 4/96mil left, Scherzer 7/175. Lot more risk with the latter. Hamels averaged 4 WAR last few seasons, worth $28mil AAV, so it’s actually a good contract on a per season basis and longevity wise. Ergo, it will cost a top prospect and 2 other mid guys so think Betts/Rodriguez/Swihart.
“Phillies do not need Monet…”
So true. He was a very poor hitter and even worse at baserunning. They could, however, definitely use MANET.
That would be a way overpay betts have had ml success already and it would be much cheaper for the Red Sox to overpay by 10 mil for Lester then give up 3 prospects to get a slightly better contract
Sam’s comment is dead wrong. There is an opportunity cost of having Hamels actually, you know, pitch for your team. Of course all credibility is lost when he says Bradley is a good young player. Typical Sox fans, take our crap player X for your ace who is worth nothing, lol.
Why is clearing a market value at worst contract a good idea for the Phillies? What great free agents to fill holes are out there for them to spend it on instead?
Unless they can get good players back, there’s no pressing need for them to move Hamels.
@Bill- Scherzer has accumulated 4 more WAR in the last three years than Hamels. He’s just a much better pitcher at this point. He’ll cost more because he’s worth more. If Hamels were a free agent today he’d get a similar deal to that 4/96 which he’s currently owed(which is actually a complement to Amaro given how well long-term pitcher contracts usually work out). He’s essentially a lefty James Shields in terms of value.
As a Red Sox fan it is embarrassing that other members of the nation think that Cespedes for Hamels is even remotely possible. Insane. The Sox would have to part with Cespedes and one of Bogaerts or Betts or the deal is not happening. Or perhaps Barnes who the Red Sox have been loathe to include in any deals.
I think that Hamels would get more than 4 years – like Lester will – but probably around $24 million AAV on the market today. So Hamels has some trade value, but less than Amaro repiortedly thinks.
If you really think a pitcher like Hamels would get anything like 4/$96 million on the open market, you’re absolutely not paying attention to the market for top pitchers.
SEA trades Saunders to CIN
CIN trades Leake to BOS
BOS trades Cespedes and cash to SEA
This is actually somewhat fair. Leake is about the level of SP the Sox should expect from a Cespedes deal. It’s a touch light on the Mariners end, but that can be fixed.
wait, BOS ends up getting a bad SP for a 3-win or higher YC and also pays cash?
Cespedes’ value is tanking by the day. I think the FO in Boston would do this deal and not think twice. Leake is a solid innings eater with upside, hitting his peak. He’s a guy they could extend, or is at worst a borderline QO at year’s end. In this deal it’s SEA – who’s getting a questionable clubhouse guy with limited skills and no comp pick – who should be seeking more from BOS.
Questionable clubhouse guy? Is there any real evidence of this? The A’s players seemed to be a bit upset when Cespedes was traded, so I wouldn’t imagine he’s that bad. I’ve never heard a bad word about Yoenis, but is there something I don’t know about?
Generally speaking, I try not to assume too much about players’ character unless there have been multiple incidents, like Elijah Dukes.
Tanking by the day? No, you made that up.
Where are you getting “or higher”? He’s being fairly generously listed as a 3 WAR player given that he’s only reached that level once in his career. Its only the fact that he was close the other two years that makes it at all accurate to call him a 3 WAR player.
You’re so weird. He posted 2.9 WAR his rookie season – in 129 games. He posted 3.4 WAR last year. The only year he wasn’t worth 3 WAR was 2013, and even then he was worth 2.2. Steamer projects 3.1.
You’re so weird.
The Mariners would be trading away two years of Michael Saunders, who is projected at 2.4 WAR in 2015, for one year of Yoenis Cespedes, who has posted a .138/.176/.338/.514 line in 85 career plate appearances at Seattle’s Safeco Field, which is brutal on righthanded power hitters with Cespedes’ limited skill set.
Seattle should do better.
Lolz, you’re going off of 85 PAs here. Calm down.
Add a premier reliever like Farquhar from the Mariners end and that deal sounds really fair all around.
Am I missing something? Leake is a sinker-slider pitcher with low K rates and a high GB rate who has been below average all years and will be FA eligible in 2016. What exactly does Leake add to BOS?
Seems like you could sign a short deal for Hammel, Masterson, Anderson to get a better pitcher and trade YC for something else…
This. I mean, what’s the point? The Red Sox are swimming in depth arms that could step in and provide what Leake would for them. It’s not like they need to clear salary space with so many players coming off the books next year.
Yeah, I thought Leake seemed a bit light as a return for Boston, and that was before I realized he’s a FA after next season. Surely there will be a better deal out there. In a vacuum, it might be close, but it only takes one desperate team to really want Cespedes, and I’d count on that happening.
If CIN can get Cespedes for Leake why would they want Saunders?
I agree this hypothetical trade has some holes.
“If CIN can get Cespedes for Leake why would they want Saunders?”
Saunders is cheaper and you have control for more years and posted his best numbers last year and some might feel he is about to put it all together. He is a former top 30 prospect. They seem eager to move Saunders, but I can’t see why and I lack confidence in the Seattle FO in general.
i agree that the Reds prob need to get someone controllable in deals for their pitching but Latos is prob the fair swap for Cespedes if he’s healthy. If Cinci can turn around and wheel Cespedes to the Jays or O’s or Giants for a couple of decent prospects, that prob satisfies everyone.
Let’s be honest wrt the Mets… it sounds reasonable to include them here but we know they’re not pulling the trigger on any of their better prospects and the market appears soft for the arms they’d like to deal.
I don’t think CIN does that deal.
I’m not thrilled with this deal, but it could very well happen. To me, Michael Saunders is a better player than Cespedes; if on a team that will just play him, which isn’t Seattle. I actually doubt that Cespedes hits well at Safeco, but the FO here is typically irrationally optimistic on hit-for-power-elsewhere types. Saunders has two years left, and is cheap; that is why I’d see Cincy do this in a heartbeat. They are moving at least one of their short-timer starters because most of them outside of Cueto aren’t good enough for QOs, and losing them for nothing is dumb. Michael Saunders has also hit far better on the road than in Safeco.
The real question in this is, would Boston move Cespedes for Leake? I think, frankly, that is about the return they well get for Cespedes only: 3 WAR is an abstraction, his only real skill is hitting HRs which is admittedly very nice, while he looks certain to hit the market next winter. If Cherington’s smart, he’d bulk up a deal Boston-Cincy deal here and get Cueto, which would certainly take more than Cespedes alone, but could really help Boston.
I think this article vastly overrates the market for Cespedes. He’s a 3 WAR player and just a rental. Not only that but he wore out his welcome in both Oakland and Boston last year. You can believe Farrell’s denials if you want, but the fact that a flood of rumors all emerged at the same time combined with the Bosox just signing his replacement is pretty conclusive. Farrell’s denials are all about maintaining some semblance of a market for him. I’m sure all of those teams would be happy to have him, but not at the prices you’re talking about. The Bosox aren’t going to get half of the value this article suggests.
Also, its ludicrous to project him as a right fielder for any other team because as we’ve just seen, the guy refuses to play right despite his cannon arm. If he would agree to play right field, the Bosox would be keeping him.
I generally agree. He’s a 3 WAR player being paid as a 1.5 WAR guy, for one year. So 1.5 WAR of excess value total. That’s … not very much. And as the article suggests, there’s a near-identical asset on the market in Upton, making it all the worse. In the end I think he goes to a team strangely missing from the article — the Padres — for someone like Ian Kennedy.
This is the deal I’ve been seeing as the most realistic. Preller is desperately seeking offense. Ross and Cashner are too much due to two years of control left, but not enough to suit Hart’s rebuild in ATL and net Upton for one year. Kennedy and Cespedes should be equal in salary. A mid rotation pitcher who consistently eats innings is important for a staff that will probably start two younger players at the back of the rotation. Buchholz has gone over 180 once, and the younger guys are in the 130-140 range.
again, the Pads would seem to be a team wanting players they could control in a Kennedy deal. Cespedes looks like a fit for a team expected to be in contention next year like the Giants, O’s or Jays.
That would make sense except for the right field problem. If Quentin can only play left and Cespedes refuses to play right, the Pads can’t take Cespedes. Its yet another way the DH rule screws NL teams.
I think they try to move Quentin to the AL where he can DH.
Compare that to Michael Saunders’ projected 2.4 WAR and $2.9 million arbitration salary in his penultimate season before free agency.
And don’t forget (or for those who don’t know and are hearing this for the first time), Cespedes has some clause in his contract that says no matter who he plays for next year, he Cannot be offered a QO at the end of the year. That could hurt his value a lot too.
I think the teams that Drew lists though make sense except for the Rangers. Unless the Rangers feel they can extend him.
Cespedes isn’t going to sign an extension with anyone. He’ll want to hit the open market, especially as a RH power source with no QO attached.
It isn’t a clause in his contract. A QO can only be offered when a player has 6 years or more of service time. Cespedes or Iwakuma won’t have accrued that much service time when they hit free agency.
Never heard a word about Cespedes wearing out his welcome in Oakland – nary a peep. He was traded for strategic and budgetary purposes, not b/c he pissed anyone off (not that I’ve heard, and I pay attention to the chatter).
Everyone leaving Boston seems to be an issue in the clubhouse? Tito and the chicken & beer crew, Omar, Manny instantly spring to mind.
Whatever has been said about Cespedes both in Oakland and Boston pales in comparison to what has been said in the past about Hanley Ramirez’ work ethic and his mood swings.
We won’t get into the injury history.
So if personal shortcomings (he’s stubborn) are the primary reason the Red Sox are trying to move Cespedes, then then giving Ramirez a 4 year, 88 million dollar deal to apparently become a left fielder-in-training makes absolutely no sense. Or is it a first baseman-in-training? I guess we’ll find out soon enough.
Cespedes has one year left on his contract. But because he’s so cheap at 9 million/year, he becomes a much more attractive rental to other teams than other one year rentals. And those other teams might be willing to part with a decent arm in order to obtain this cheap rental. It will most likely be an arm that some team has only one year of control left.
Which makes the possibilities pretty broad.
It’s either Cespedes or Napoli who is most likely leaving. Napoli’s contract will expire after next year and it’s probably easier to teach Ramirez, who has experience as a corner IF, another corner IF position than to teach Hanley how to master playing the OF for the first time. And how to deal with that tricky corner in LF and The Green Monster.
In Napoli’s favor, it will probably cost less to re-sign him after his contract expires. And he’s the high OBP type of guy the Red Sox prefer. But what if his problems with sleep apnea, the finger and the hip are just the beginning of injury woes that often befall men once they pass the age of 30?
As an Orioles fan, I’d be pleased to have Cespedes in LF for one year. Wieters will almost certainly be leaving after 2015. Chris Davis too, if not sooner. It gives the Orioles another chance to go for it all.
I think Bud Norris, really cheap (he earned 5.3 million in 2014), durable, a solid #3 or #4 type starter, and with one year of team control left, should be of interest to the Red Sox. He’s coming off of a good season (highest GB% ever should make him attractive to any AL East team). The Sox would probably want another piece.
With Gausman ready to move into the rotation, Norris is expendable.
But as Drew said, teams have this great reluctance to make trades with division rivals, even if there’s a good fit. And that’s an impediment that probably would kill any notion of such a trade. That, and the possibility of getting a better arm than Norris.
But one can dream of Cespedes and Camden Yards making a lovely coupling.
I don’t think Norris would be of much interest to Boston. But Wieters might well be. Still sound like a good deal? The point to in-division moves is that it’s got to really help both teams. Norris-Cespedes really only helps one.
It’s an interesting idea.
Here’s why I think the Orioles balk at such a proposal: last spring–before he got hurt– Wieters demonstrated an ability to beat the shift that teams employ against him when he bats left handed. Thus, his splits were greatly improved over previous seasons.
The Orioles got very little offensive production from the bottom of the lineup. Joseph has an arm as good as Wieters, and some have suggested he’s better at framing pitches than Matt, but the bat is limp.
So a Cespedes/Wieters trade fills one hole but creates another.
With Gausman apparently ready to move into the rotation, and Bundy perhaps doing so in the second half of the season, the Orioles will be looking to move Norris and/or Ubaldo. That’s the only reason I thought such a trade might be feasible. As I said, the Bosox would want something additional and I don’t know what that might be.
What I’d really like to know is whether or not the Orioles think they can fix the bat of Jackie Bradley Jr. Stick him in CF and slide Adam Jones and his powerful arm over to RF and you have one of the best defensive OFs in the AL East.
But that’s an entirely different line of speculation.
Drew, I think you meant “clamoring” (demanding loudly), not “clambering” (climbing awkwardly with hands and feet). Of course, I could be mistaken …
I like the Mets as a 3rd party to one of these. DeGrom would be a great fit.
DeGrom would be a great fit in that the Red Sox get a young, cost-controlled ROY pitcher for a one year rental of a 3-WAR outfielder? Come on, man. Don’t make us Sox fans look that bad.
Yeah you’re right, not just Yoenis then. Add prospect to the deal. I don’t think the Sox should settle for what they can get just for Yoenis, though. Sweeten the pot as needed to support the signings they just made. I don’t like the idea of Yoenis for Leake or a similar pitcher just to get 1:1 value (which is likely close to equivalent).
Listen, we’re not gonna get DeGrom. The Mets have no conceivable incentive to trade him, unless we give away the farm. He’s the kind of asset that teams trade superstars for.
It’s more realistic to expect a solid, middle-of-the-order type pitcher and find an ace on the open market, a la Scherzer – or at least ‘settle’ for McCarthy or Liriano.
OK, go ahead. Just kill my dreams. You’re probably right that unless the right prospect is included DeGrom is out, but the idea that the Sox should look for more than a back end starter in return for a Yoenis package is more what I’m suggesting. The Mets have plenty of young arms, that’s why I mentioned them and DeGrom in the first place.
I would love to see Liriano on a short deal, McCarthy would be interesting, too.
Degrom was a 3war sp in 22 start with 6 more years of team control. If we say he is a 3.5 war pitcher and look at surplus value it would be about 100 mil. Caspedes + 3 top prospects would get you in the ballpark
Here is a fun trade idea: Xander to NYM for Wheeler and Marcos Molina Xander + Thor for Tulo.
Who says no?
That depends on how much money is changing hands. If no money is exchanged, the Rockies take that in a heartbeat. The Sox probably take the deal because Wheeler fits their needs better than Xander, but maybe they’d try to trade him for a pitcher who’s projected to be better than Wheeler in the short term. The Mets would be fools to give up two potential top of the rotation pitchers making the league minimum for an oft-injured 30 year old SS making serious bank.
I don’t know who Molina is, but I doubt he’s good enough to swing the trade.
The Mets say no. Even for Tulo, the Mets are not giving up Thor and Wheeler (let alone including Molina). I am not sure that mets would even do Xander for Wheeler, although that’s a pretty close call and a reasonable suggestion.
Fangraphs is truly a mouthpiece of the Red Sox these days. Inflating Boston player/prospect values while dismissing and putting down their potential trade targets. Keep up the good fight, sawxgraphs.
What possible reason could they have for inflating Sox prospect values? Half of ’em are Mariners fans, for crying out loud. Just because you don’t like the fact that the Sox have a solid farm system isn’t a reason to shoot the messenger.
I hate the Sox with a passion but you are right here nerf.
The guy who wrote this one runs a Jays blog and is known as a Giants fan. Obviously jockin’ the Sawx hard.
Does that Jays mouthpiece you are referring to count? I wouldn’t let that cat out of the bag until you’ve established even a small following.
Please don’t try logic with him. It’s simply unfair to battle an unarmed man.
We miss you, nik. Come back.
I would think Cleveland would be a good fit. They have a lot of pitching, and need a right fielder on a short-term contract.
I think you are missing a big target: The Padres!. They have called on Kemp and Bruce and the Red Sox have that right handed power!
You could probably work out a relatively straight forward Cespedes for Ian Kennedy plus a bit more swap. Maybe you could throw an A level and a B level prospect in and get Andrew Cashner. Throw in two top 5 prospects and maybe Tyson Ross.
Who haven’t the Padres called on? http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/baseball-joe/blog/all-over-the-map-padres-will-make-some-sort-of-offseason-moves-112014
What possible use would the Padres have for an OF who will be a free agent at the end of the season. They’re surely more than 1 year away or they wouldn’t be considering trading starting pitchers.
Matt Wisler could start for them.
As an A’s fan, Cespedes to the Giants is about the worst case scenario for this offseason, outside of Beane signing Daric Barton to a 13 year, $325 mil deal.
Meh. As another A’s fan, seeing Cespedes in SF scares me less than what he might be able to do for another AL team (in front of the Monster or in another hitter’s park like NYY/BAL/TOR, for example).
From a sentimental standpoint it would suck seeing him in those ugly creme and black home unis, but I think he’s a little overrated right now. Using the past two seasons as a sample size, he’s posted an OBP < .300 and a wRC+ around 106. He doesn't walk much and he strikes out around the league average rate. Unless the Giants are able to sprinkle some BABIP fairy dust on him (like the kind they used in October 2010 and 2012), I'd be perfectly fine seeing them or someone else overpay him in the next contract he gets.
“BABIP fairy dust” would suggest highly outperforming xBABIP. The 2012 playoff team, to the best of my memory, hit a sizable amount of line drives (17 during the WS, compared to Detroit’s 9), so BABIP should have been high anyway.
I just meant they happened to post high BABIPs in those postseasons by all of a sudden turning into an amazing clutch hitting team for no particular reason. You don’t really need to rationalize it. They outperformed how they had played during the regular season in all 3 of their championship runs.
Signed,
Bitter/angry A’s fan.
Cespedes’s trade value may be raised by the A’s collapse after they traded him for a considerably more valuable package. That suggests a clubhouse/field value greater than stats indicate – and he was, after all, an All-Star with 22 HR/100 RBI and a lot of assists.
They were collapsing before they traded him. That was the main reason for the trade.
As a White Sox fan the idea of a 3-team deal with SF piqued my interest. Thinking off the cuff what may be quasi-realistic:
BOS rec Jose Quintana
SF rec YC, Matt Davidson
CHW rec Bogaerts, Kyle Crick, & a “Don Cooper Special”
Rationale: Quintana’s contract needs no introduction here. YC haunts A’s from across bay, replaces Sandoval offense. Pale Hose flip bird in hand for two in bush.
Referencing the recent Addison Russell trade and the less-recent Zach Wheeler trade, the above would seem entirely possible, albeit improbable.
Clay “Don Copper Special” Buchholz
Ha- no; a DCS is a no-namer from off the scrap heap but with a “live arm” who gets turned into an all-star a lá Bobby Jenks and Matt Thornton. I’m surprised this isn’t in the Fangraphs dictionary
You are right. Buchholz is a future Cy Young winning Pirate.
This makes absolutely no sense. Boston gets Quintana, solid and cost controlled as he may be, by giving up Cespedes and Bogaerts? There may be some hypothetical deal in there somewhere but this is not even close to it. If Bogaerts is any deal its going to be for an elite cost controlled SP.
That’s a troll comment, bro- and borne of ignorance.
Fact: Quintana is fresh off the 9th best WAR (5.3 WAR) by any pitcher in 2014, is 25 with still room to grow, and is signed to a ridiculous contract. That’s pretty much the definition of an elite cost-controlled pitcher.
How does he stack up (over a full season) to other “cost-controlled” young stud pitchers?
Matt Harvey (’13) 6.0 WAR
Chris Sale 5.4 WAR
QUINTANA 5.3
Yu Darvish (’13) 5.0
Garrett Richards 4.3
Jose Fernandez (’13) 4.2
Madison Bumgarner 3.6
Sonny Gray 3.3
Julio Teheran 3.2
Chris Archer 3.1
Moreover the 4-WAR and 30-year-old Jeff Samardjiza just netted Addison Russell, a comparable prospect to what Xander was. Not to mention Bogaerts’ service time clock already started. These are realities of the current market, not stuff I dreamt up.
Finally, Cespedes’ trade value is “not even close” to what you must think it is. By simple economics, surpluses mean individual units become less valuable. You see it every day at the grocery store, gas station, and on the stock report. Other teams know Boston now has too many RH bats, too many position players, and there is no incentive whatsoever to bend over backwards to acquire arguably the least attractive of them. Cespedes is strictly a rental and to make matters worse is QO-ineligible.
Again looking at the market, when the D-Backs had too many OFs, they traded *3* years of the superior J-Up for Martin Prado, and Upton is again on the market (with a potential qualifying offer attached), further lessening Cespedes’ value.
So not only was my scenario defensible if not totally fair, it’s a better deal for Boston than (for example) Xander-plus for Cole Hamels, which I’ve seen championed on this and other sites, because Quintana is elite now, is a good bet to be at least very good for six more years, can yet improve, and saves them a truckload to go ahead and use on a free agent SP.
Me thinks you should, you know, have some basic knowledge of the trade market and consider all angles before offering your erroneous gut reactions and thinly veiled homerism on this site.
Quintana is left handed.
Lester and his cutter can tame the Green Monster and right handed batter stacked lineups, but can Quintana?
@balticwolf
JQ career xFIP vs RHB 3.75
Lester career 3.76 (last 3 seasons: 3.69)
Cutter, shmutter
JQ career at Fenway: 2G, 15 IP, 7H, 2BB, 9K, 3 ER
Monster, shmonster
Since when does Chris Sale spell his name “J-o-s-e Q-u-i-n-t-a-n-a”?
Boy, your White Sox sure make of well in that trade. It’s almost as if you didn’t need to tell everyone you were a White Sox fan.
Find me one sabermetric-friendly White Sox fan who *wants* to give up a sure thing in Quintana for two “what-ifs” and then you can post that. I wasn’t necessarily in favor of that deal, just acknowledging you need to give something to get something, and looking at the market for some precedent. Do you have any such analysis to offer?
Quintana for Cespedes? I think the White Sox match up pretty well in a trade for Cespedes. One of the White Sox’ biggest needs is an outfielder to replace the disappointing Viciedo. The Red Sox biggest need is starting pitching.
Quintana’s contract is extremely team friendly, especially for a 25 year old pitcher with 5.1 WAR last year. Normally a pitcher like that wouldn’t be available for almost any price. However, the White Sox will have too many left handed starters once Carlos Rodon arrives in the majors so they ‘could’ make Quintana available.
I can’t tell if this is a joke or not….
Matt, explain what points you disagree with
Cespedes is a 3 WAR player under control for 1 year at $10.5M. Quintana is probably a 4 WAR player under control until 2020. His 2015,2016,2017 season combined will only cost $10.8M.
If assume Quintana can average 3 WAR in each of those years, you are getting $60M of value for $10.8M. With Cespedes you are getting $21M in value for $10.5M.
Ok, I was worried you were going to say the opposite simply because Cespedes has a bigger name than Quintana (i guess i should know what message board i am on). I wasn’t trying to argue that swapping those two straight up would be fair, I am only saying that the White Sox have to be thinking about getting rid of a lefty and the Red Sox are clearly going to add some starting pitching. So a trade involving those two wouldn’t be crazy. I think the White Sox will ultimately just try to get rid of Danks. However, if Quintana got them a plethora of talent in return it might be favorable over paying someone to take Danks.
He’s obviously not at the same level as either Cespedes or Upton, but any team interested in a corner OF in a contract year is probably also calling the Astros about Dexter Fowler. His less-than-stellar WAR is mainly due to him (re-?)establishing that he shouldn’t be playing in spacious CFs. Stick him in LF and he’s probably a 2-2.5-win player (albeit from OBP rather than power). He’s highly unlikely to be extended by Houston, and from a trade standpoint their BATNA is just the QO comp pick.
I like it. Great post-hype buy-low candidate and he switch-hits. The power should rebound slightly.
Really don’t see why so many see Cespedes as a great player. He has a little bit of power, not a ton, doesn’t walk, doesn’t seem super great defensively, still seemed like a little for Lester when the trade went down.
But dude won 2 home run derbies, and haven’t you seen the YouTube video of his MLB audition tape/workouts?!?!?! RESPECT
Clearly the Sox are entitled to a deus-ex-machina solving their pitching problem, and immediately.
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