Let’s Find Ryan Howard a Happy New Home
Times have changed, finally, in Philadelphia. Approximately two years after most of the rest of us thought it was time to blow things up, and six months after GM Ruben Amaro reportedly told closer Jonathan Papelbon that the team was still attempting to win now, the Philles have eventually seen the light and committed to the future. Jimmy Rollins is gone. Marlon Byrd is gone. Antonio Bastardo is gone. Cole Hamels may yet be gone. Cliff Lee, presuming he can show he’s healthy early in 2015, will almost certainly be gone by July. Papelbon probably follows. It’s possible Chase Utley sticks it out to maintain one last link to the past, but it’s clear the Phillies we knew are gone, and the next year or two (or more) are going to be a difficult transition.
I didn’t mention Ryan Howard because when you read a quote like this, as Amaro told a local radio station just before the holidays…
“We’ve talked to Ryan,” Amaro said in an interview with 97.5 The Fanatic’s Mike Missanelli on Friday afternoon. “And I told him that in our situation it would probably bode better for the organization not with him but without him. With that said if he’s with us, then we’ll work around him. We’ll hope he puts up the kind of numbers that we hope he can and we’ll see where it goes from there.”
…then it deserves its own section.
When your general manager says the team is better off without you and that if you’re still in town, then they will “work around [you],” well, it’s clear you’re definitely gone. Or, at least, will be at some point, since he’s not been moved yet. You can live with an aging Utley, because he’s still a solid player with no obvious successor. You can’t keep Howard around because he’s a negative for a National League club and each plate appearance that goes to him takes one away from Maikel Franco or Cody Asche or Darin Ruf. None are going to be the next great Phillies first baseman, but there’s value in simply removing an aging, ineffective Howard from the equation, if only emotionally.
I hardly need to remind you of how difficult it’s going to be for the Phillies to actually make a Howard move, because you know all the reasons why. Instead, let’s play a game. Let’s find Howard a new home. Would any team bother with the roster spot? Is there actually a place where he could be of value? Maybe this will be fun. Unless you’re a Phillies fan, of course. Then it won’t be much fun at all.
* * *
Let’s start with this: They aren’t going to just cut him, as some have suggested. I say that not with any particular inside information other than the fact that Amaro insisted it wouldn’t happen, but also with an eye towards history. Howard has $60 million remaining on the ill-fated five-year, $125 million 2012-2016 extension he signed in April 2010, which breaks down as $25 million this year and next along with a $10 million buyout of a $23 million 2017 club option.
That’s almost certainly not going to happen, because for as badly as the Phillies are sure to make out on any potential Howard trade, the simple optics of trading a franchise icon for nothing are still preferable to cutting him loose. Even if that weren’t the case, it’s unheard of for a player to be released with that much money remaining on the contract; even Dan Uggla had “only” $19 million remaining when the Atlanta Braves parted ways with him last summer. So far as I’ve been able to tell, the biggest sum ever swallowed by a team to release a player came back in 2006, when the Arizona Diamondbacks ate $22 million in the process of dumping Russ Ortiz. The Phillies won’t break that record by a factor of three.
If you really want to get rid of a bad contract, you trade it. We’ve seen that with Carl Crawford, Prince Fielder, Matt Kemp and others. You probably won’t get as lucky as the Toronto Blue Jays did when they talked the Angels into taking Vernon Wells and all of the $86 million he was still owed back in 2010; but you can at least save a few million dollars and pick up a minor league filler or two. So let’s try to find Howard a new home, and we’ll play with the following directional guidelines:
- It has to be an American League team, because Howard is a first baseman in the same way that David Ortiz is a first baseman. That is to say, not at all outside of interleague or emergency situations.
- It has to be a team that doesn’t have a full-time designated hitter — like Ortiz with the Red Sox — because Howard’s total lack of positional flexibility or defensive value would render him merely a pinch-hitter in such a case.
- The best fit might be in a ballpark that enhances power to left field, not right.
It’s that last one that’s really interesting, because Howard was never a typical pull hitter, as he’s always been stronger going the other way:
| Ryan Howard / wRC+ | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Opposite | Center | Pull | |
| 2008 | 323 | 187 | 144 |
| 2009 | 266 | 257 | 168 |
| 2010 | 254 | 208 | 149 |
| 2011 | 218 | 216 | 161 |
| 2012 | 230 | 216 | 116 |
| 2013 | 190 | 215 | 187 |
| 2014 | 219 | 243 | 49 |
| Career | 262 | 238 | 155 |
The problem, of course, is that it used to be “outstanding to the left side and very good to the right. Last year it was “good but still below-peak to left and absolute train wreck to right,” which is a not-at-all subtle indicator of slowing bat speed — as is the fact that he saw a noticeable increase in fastballs in 2014. You might argue that an easy-to-reach right field, like Yankee Stadium, might make that weakness less of an issue, but we’re in straw-grasping mode here. The things that are broken aren’t likely fixable. Might as well try to capitalize on a remaining strength.
Besides, when looking at his fly ball spray charts for the past two years…
… he’s not hitting a ton of flies to right, anyway. Since Howard hasn’t really functioned as a typical lefty hitter, looking at the usual park factors isn’t that helpful here because we’re not interested in what he can do to right, and reliable and publicly available metrics that break down performance by left/center/right are limited. However, as one small data point, this ESPN article from less than a year ago claims left field in Toronto and in Houston had the highest HR/FB% of any park location other than Yankee Stadium’s short porch.
Enough introduction; let’s get to the fun. Where could the Phillies send Howard?
Not a fit
Boston
Ortiz is one of the few remaining full-time designated hitters, and with Allen Craig and Daniel Nava around to back up Mike Napoli, the Red Sox have plenty of first base options.
Chicago
Without Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn around, this could have potentially been an option, but that door shut when Adam LaRoche signed to pair with Jose Abreu at first and DH.
Cleveland
Carlos Santana and Nick Swisher both tried to play positions that weren’t first or DH last year — experiments which aren’t likely to be — and now Brandon Moss is in the picture.
Detroit
I imagine the Tigers are plenty happy with Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez at first and DH, thanks.
Houston
Jon Singleton didn’t impress in his first trip around the bigs, but he’s also only entering his age-23 season, and while there are valid reasons for the Astros to import short-term veterans, it’s not like Howard is going to have value at the deadline. With Chris Carter at DH, there’s not room here for another whiff-happy hitter who hopes to run into homers.
Kansas City
Eric Hosmer is entrenched at first base, and Kendrys Morales has replaced Billy Butler at DH. You could probably make the argument that getting a nearly free Howard would have been more efficient than $17 million worth of Morales — and there were reports the Royals had interest — but with age and an easily-explainable reason for a lousy 2014 on his side, Morales is still the better bet.
Los Angeles
Albert Pujols and C.J. Cron have first and DH covered, and Matt Joyce also figures into the DH mix.
Minnesota
Even if this did feel like a move the Twins would make, Joe Mauer and Kennys Vargas are penciled in at first and DH, plus Torii Hunter will probably see time at DH.
New York Yankees
A popular rumored destination for Howard, the acquisition of Garrett Jones takes away the role Howard would have filled, and with Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran, there are plenty of past-prime veterans here who need DH time.
Oakland
They just signed Butler. Ike Davis and Nate Freiman are around, and John Jaso may not be a catcher any longer.
Seattle
In some ways, Howard seems like the most Seattle player, though the arrival of Nelson Cruz likely sucks up most of the remaining DH time. Safeco isn’t a bad place for lefty pull hitters, but Howard isn’t that.
Texas
The Rangers technically need a DH, since Mitch Moreland is hardly irreplaceable, and Fielder has much to prove, starting with his health, but… no. Fielder and Howard on the same team, in 2015, may violate interstate commerce laws.
Every National League team
Just in case that wasn’t already clear.
Lukewarm possibilities
When I started this, I promise I didn’t expect to end up with three AL East teams, yet here we are.
Baltimore
The Phillies reportedly attempted to include Howard in a package that would have sent Byrd to Baltimore before they dealt the outfielder to Cincinnati. Maybe that’s the only way this is going to get done: as an anchor attached to something more attractive. Regardless, the Orioles have made it into January without signing a free agent and have watched Cruz and Nick Markakis depart.
Reportedly, Delmon Young will soon have his return made official, and that eats up DH time, though it’s really going to be what Baltimore does with its outfield that impacts Howard. The more bodies the team has in the outfield, the more likely it is that Steve Pearce plays first or DH rather than a corner. Of course, there’s also hope Chris Davis returns to form.
Tampa Bay
James Loney is the first baseman. The DH is… Logan Forsythe? David DeJesus? With Joyce and Wil Myers gone, and Ben Zobrist seeming more likely by the day to follow, the Rays might still want to find an addition on offense. The usual budget issues wouldn’t apply here because the Phillies would have to subsidize nearly all of Howard’s salary, and the Rays have long taken chances on seemingly flawed players.
Loney and DeJesus are both lefty, though, which makes a fit somewhat awkward.
Toronto
Justin Smoak is younger and can play defense, though it’s worth noting that he was considerably worse (77 wRC+) in 2014 than was Howard (93). As noted above, Rogers Centre may be a good fit for Howard’s skills; if you squint, you could see the Phillies attempting to package Utley and Howard together, since second base is a massive issue for the Jays. Edwin Encarnacion doesn’t need a platoon partner, and Smoak’s splits don’t fit well with Howard’s, though again, Smoak has proven almost nothing at the big-league level.
This one at least feels plausible, if hardly likely.
* * *
In a crowd-sourced exercise here in November, you estimated Howard’s worth at two years and $4 million, which is essentially free. That’s basically what the Phillies will need to do to send Howard on his way. It will only get harder if he’s still on the team through May, when his limited no-trade becomes a full 10/5 no-trade. That said, it’s easy to imagine Howard waiving that clause if he sees it might be his only path towards playing time and/or winning.
It’s also easy for a team to prefer gambling on a distressed asset with a higher chance of success, like Andre Ethier, Carlos Quentin or B.J. Upton. While each of their respective teams would have to eat money to move them, it’s not likely that they’re going to eat as much as the Phillies will on Howard, making them at least slightly more expensive. It’s not going to be easy to find Howard a new home, but it should be possible. It has to be, anyway. He can’t ever play in Philadelphia again.
Mike Petriello used to write here, and now he does not. Find him at @mike_petriello or MLB.com.
“Maybe this will be fun. Unless you’re a Phillies fan, of course. Then it won’t be much fun at all.”
Sigh….
Lately, nothing has ever been fun if you’re a Phillies fan and everything to do with the Phillies has been great fun for everyone else.
Well, as long as the Phillies are fun to SOMEBODY.
¯\_(?)_/¯
I’m sorry you are going through this, but it feels just so good to me. As a fan of several small market teams, seeing a huge decline phase in Phil and NYY makes me happy that they’re finally getting bitten in the ass by the absurd contracts they handed out when flexing their financial muscle.
It would hardly seem fair if teams spend gobs of money and never were bad. Everyone else in the league is grateful for your current struggles, because we all enjoy the “chickens come home to roost” phenomenon.
I understand that completely and do not begrudge you for it at all. I remember when the Phillies were a “small market team” (our owner’s words), and we Phillies fans felt the same way about large market teams. Now the shoe is on the other foot. Ah well; the Phillies’ historical place has always been at the bottom of the league anyway.
So you’re saying “I begrudge employers who pay their workers market value because my team can’t/won’t?”
You can be jealous of rich teams, but don’t make it out like small market teams are super noble for stockpiling young players whose wages are artificially capped for years.
Tom, I think its a bit unfair to twist Costanza’s words that way. The owners are certainly heavily involved in keeping young player’s salaries “artificially” low, but each individual owner has essentially zero ability to change anything even if they wanted to. The players union could have pushed harder on this issue in the CBA negotiations as well, but they haven’t. And that’s why I put artificially quotes above. The players have a strong union to argue for their interests, they agreed to the deal, the people that chose to be professional baseball players know what they are getting into, so what’s artificial about it, really? They’ve had their chances to negotiation something better, but haven’t. If one guy goes into a car dealership and pays $50K for a car, then another guy goes into the same dealership and buys the same car for $40K after negotiating and haggling the price down, was there anything artificial about the extra $10K the first guy payed?
From the fan perspective all this really doesn’t matter, or doesn’t have to, if the players are getting $500K/year or $30M/year due to league rules. And it doesn’t really differentiate between the teams anyway, since all teams take advantage of the lower wages of young players, some just also happen to hand out humungous contracts to older players too. Some people like rooting for the underdog, some people will follow the winner who ever it is, how ever they get it. So what? Its entertainment, remember?
Walter, two quick points, although I appreciate your thoughtful response and not immediately calling me a communist witch and asking to burn me at the stake. Decorum in internet commenting is rare and appreciated.
1) The salaries are “artificially” low because of baseball’s antitrust exemption. The players do have a relatively strong union but their negotiating position is substantially weakened before they arrive at the bargaining table because the owners are allowed to collude in a way that other businesses would not be able to do. They never agreed to the antitrust exemption.
2) You and Costanza are certainly free to root for the underdog. I will continue to root for my evil empire.
Tom, even on the internet I try to keep discussion civil and I certainly wouldn’t call you a commie for arguing for further influence of the free market in MLB.
I also wouldn’t argue with you that the anti-trust exemption has mucked up the business in many ways and continues to do so, but as far as player compensation the anti-trust exemption has now been weakened so much, the player union certainly has the power to go after an earlier free agency. They just don’t, and I think it is because of just one main reason: The players in the union are mostly those that have already past free agency or very close to it. MLB only has so much money, and if players get less money in years 1-6 (especially 1-3), then there is more for those with 7+. The service clock was something Marvin Miller introduced himself, and having just dealt a crushing blow to MLB in the Flud case, why self impose such a thing?
Today owners and the league battle to keep the service clock under the argument that it helps competitive balance. I doubt that argument would ever hold up in court, even the entirety of the anti-trust exemption would probably be thrown out. Yet for now, the MLBPA is quite happy nibbling on the edges of the service clock. Pushing for more super-2s or higher arbitration prices, or fighting draft caps and things. But they would almost certainly win in court if they really fought almost anything. So, why do they let it persist?
I think its simple; because they want to.
Sam, couldn’t agree with you more that the union trades away benefits for young players (i.e. Future members) for benefits to its current players. Huge ethical problem that’s not unique to baseball unions.
I remember doing this exact drill with Vernon Wells multiple times during his Toronto stint and had a lot of fun with it for a while. Being an armchair GM is fun work, because no matter how hard you try, not everybody likes to give up players that are making the league minimum. Sometimes, and you may need to squint pretty hard, but sometimes eating $50MM and getting nothing in return is just what the doctor ordered.
If Amaro offered Hamels essentially free (i.e. a couple of fringe A-ball pitchers) to any team that agreed to take Howard and most of his contract, he would get some offers. The only question would be how much of Howard’s contract the Phillies would still need to eat.
Amaro seems to realize his predicament (a few years too late). If he wants to start from scratch, he could view Hamels as the mechanism to offload Howard’s contract.
No team would agree to that. Don’t forget, in your scenario, the recipient team is going to be paying Hamels’ salary ALONG with Howard’s salary. Why diminish the return you can get for Cole Hamels simply to offload Howard?
It’d be better to trade Cole, get the best prospects you can get for him (which won’t be upper echelon prospects, but they will be better than what Philly currently has), and just ride out the Howard Contract until it’s done. You’re not gonna be competitive while he’s around; may as well bring on young talent and see how they do until the albatross falls off the team’s neck.
I agree completely. The Phillies are almost surely not going to compete the next two seasons, and if they dump Hamels, that just becomes a stronger likelihood. The only reason to do this is just to cut costs so maybe the owners make more money. Reinvesting those resources would not put the Phillies in the position to win. Just dumping Hamels (and honestly to some Phillies fans dumping Howard) would alienate the fan base tremendously.
“The only reason to do this is just to cut costs so maybe the owners make more money”
Are you referring to Howard or Hamels? The reason I see for trading Howard is that a franchise icon is probably not going to agree to sit most of the time, and he’s worse than your younger options that need their reps.
The best case situation would be for Howard to pull a Konerko, and slowly fade out. He’s not going to be traded where they save much money (2 years, $4 million?), he’s not going to bring back prospects… if the Phils could avoid a PR disaster and also avoid playing him, well, that’s about the best case outcome.
Didn’t they sign howard to an extension before the existing contract was up? That seems like it bodes ill…
– howard
– verlander
– miguel cabrera
– joey votto
– giancarlo stanton?
Anyone else I’m missing, where a team signed a guy to an extension before they needed to, didn’t get a steep discount?
The lesson I see is this: even established “elite” performance MLB players can fall off a cliff extremely quickly. Seems like teams undervalue the ability to “see more cards” before they place a bet, to torture an analogy…
It’s already too late for Howard to “fade out” the way Konerko did. Konerko put up solid offensive numbers through 2012, when he posted a .371 wOBA. Paulie then posted a disappointing 2013 season for $13.5M (much of it deferred). His 2014 season really shouldn’t really factor into the discussion since everyone involved knew they were paying him relative peanuts for a victory lap. I don’t think there is much regret in Konerko’s contracts.
The last time Howard’s production approached that of Konerko’s 2012 was a year earlier, when he posted a .355 wOBA. He has put up wOBA numbers of .303, .334, and .306 in the following three years. That basically gives Howard three $20M+ seasons where he hit only slightly better than Konerko’s one down $13.5M season, and it seems pretty unlikely that Howard is about to turn that around in the next 2-3 seasons. Nobody is going to feel good about that, and I don’t think anyone in Philadelphia wanted to pay $60M to see Ryan Howard take multiple “victory” laps.
Costanza – you missed Ryan Braun, the second time (signed in 2011 to start in 2016). The first time it turned out excellent for the Brewers.
The first big A-rod contract turned out pretty well also if memory serves. But point taken, these large contracts before they’re necessary may score some P.R. points on the front end but usually don’t serve the team very well when it’s all said and done.
Costanza – Howard was not an elite MLB player. His name does not even belong among those listed in terms of production, even Stanton who has already posted a career WAR total equivalent to Howard’s. With bigger contracts come bigger risks, but Howard’s contract was never deserved and smart baseball analysis at the time he signed it foresaw this decline and debacle.
There is also a big difference in the signings you mention where the team got a discount – this really only happens when players are still in the team control phase of their careers.
That would be like paying 42.5 million a year for Hamels, (if Howard could be had for free).
Lester got 6/$155. Hamels and Howard together would be 5/$174, so the Phillies would have to kick in something like $45 million just to get it down to that AAV.
The problem with that idea is that a team would have to take on $170M worth of contracts, and that’s a lot of money for Hamels. Howard might have some minimal value, but he also takes up a roster spot that you could use for someone versatile.
The Phillies don’t need to offload Howard’s contract. They need to offload Howard. There’s zero reason for them to do this kind of thing, let alone other teams.
I’m not sure what your point is? You can’t separate the player from his contract at this point barring an outright release (in which case the Phillies are still on the hook, but a new team signing him would not be), so they’re essentially one and the same.
Not only is it difficult to imagine that any team would want to take on these two contracts, due to the sheer size of them combined, Hamels’ value, relative to what he is owed is pretty low (see: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-design-a-red-sox-cole-hamels-trade/). Putting Howard into that deal would demolish the return the Phillies could get on Hamels – they’d probably have to take on albatross contracts from whichever team would be foolish enough to do it AND they’d likely need to include sweeteners, such as prospects or MLB league average players.
No chance.
That’s not how The RAJ works.
1-First insist on a huge overpayment for a star.
2-After said star declines to merely a good player, insist on a huge overpayment for said star.
3-When the player declines to the point where no one would claim his contract on waivers, then drop your asking price to their best prospect.
4-When the player is less than waiver bait, suggest you might eat ‘some’ salary.
5-When no one wants to pay $60M for a guy with almost no value, tell the press that the other GMs aren’t playing nice.
Nice RAJ narrative. Except RAJ has just traded Hernandez, Bastardo, Byrd and the 10 and 5 rights Rollins. Troll on brother.
yeah !!!!!!
Are you saying Bastardo, Hernandez and Byrd were stars?!
And he didn’t trade Lee when he had the chance, didn’t trade Howard when he had at least nominal value, never traded Ruiz when he had some value, could’ve traded Young, but waited until the waiver deadline, when he had no leverage.
And the only reason he secured Rollins agreement to be traded is because no one likes to finish last. Good luck.
Maybe, if the Phillies had a decent farm system. They don’t. They need prospects more than money and Hamels is one of their few assets left.
I don’t think its a bad idea, especially for a team like the Giants who have more money than they do prospects. If Philly pitched in $10M and Howard was flipped to an AL team for $5, then that effectively makes Hamels at 5 years/$160. Its high for sure, but if I’m going to overpay $25M on a contract, I’d rather overpay by $5M per year for Hamels’ age 31-15 years than be overpaying that much for the age 37-38 years for Sheilds/Scherzer.
Plus, if Philly saves $40M this year that can bid more heavily on Moncado and other Int’l free agents.
*31-35
Is it really unreasonable to think that Howard may only be a pinch hitter at this point?
It may be unreasonable to think any team would take on the baggage, at any cost, with the intention of using him only or primarily as a pinch hitter.
How long before that annoying guy comes along with the “JOHN MIDDLETON FELONY FRAUD” crap?
He plagues all the Philly dot com articles that are, in any way, Phillies related. I have no idea why or how he found his way over here.
Just ignore him.
I am Ryan Howard.
I am John Middleton.
Sam I am.
I came to the comment section to say just this.
The best this article can do when it tries to discern a new home for Ryan Howard is the section on “Lukewarm Possibilities.” This is certainly not the fault of the Fangraphs author on this piece. However, he simply should have considered that the only fitting home for Ryan Howard is the one where he spends his off season.
I honestly think it’s odd that Howard is considered especially unplayable at first. Granted, he’s bad there now, but not uniquely so. He certainly rates at the bottom defensively, but he’s not that far below the pack.
The problem with Howard right now is primarily his bat.
While it may seem that he may not be an outlier defensively, when you combine negative outputs from all facets of offense and defense, the whole picture is what makes him an outlier. Simply put, every team is likely to have internal options that make more sense than he does, so why give up any value (prospects, cash, or both) to take on one of the most certain liabilities in the game and block the development of an asset you already know.
In the last 5 years, there are 37 guys who’ve played at least 2000 innings at 1B. Howard has played over 5000 innings in that time period, and is ranked 34th in UZR/150. Of the three guys worse than him, two are retired (Dunn and Konerko), and the other is a DH (Encarnacion).
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=2000&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=24,a
There are certainly guys with worse UZR numbers in small samples, and there are certainly worse-fielding DH types like EE. But I don’t really know if there’s a worse overall defender in baseball who *regularly* plays the field.
eh, he’s closer the rest of the pack than to those other three… but fair enough. Again, I wasn’t arguing that he is good or average.
my main point is that if he could still hit, the Phillies wouldn’t be looking to get rid of him
The problem with Howard right now is primarily his bat.
Not really. If Howard could play SS, he’d be easily tradable. Therefore the problem is his defense.
No, I am not serious.
Seems to me the natural conclusion of this piece is that he is, in fact, likely to be cut.
You’re my boy, Blue.
Any chance Howard would agree to a “buy out”? The Phillies owe him $60 million over the next 3 years. If they offered him (i.e.) $40 million up front, perhaps he would take the cash now rather than the $60m spread out over three years (during which time he would be traveling, training and sitting on a bench).
Given a chance to earn $40m immediately for doing absolutely nothing, versus $60m over 3 years for doing a lot (including constant travel) I would think at least a decent percentage of people (including myself) would choose the former.
Gil Meche comes to mind. He turned down $12m in his final season in favor of $0 so he did not need to travel/train all year just to ride the bench.
It might just be a matter of determining what it is worth to Howard to agree to go away on a buy out.
It’s just a thought. There are no ideal options in Howard’s case, but this one might satisfy all parties.
I do not believe that buyouts are an option in baseball…The phillies owe that $60 million to Howard regardless, unless he officially retires or some other team takes on part of his salary through a trade. He would be stupid to do to forgo any of that money being owed to him. The braves cut uggla last year, and still owe him 13 mill this year. The Gil Meche situation was unique because the player simply retired and left 12.5 million on the table.
The only form of a buyout I am aware of is one that is agreed to at the time the contract or extension is signed, as is the case for howard in 2017. Howard is going to be around for the next three years, at the least due to becoming even more wealthy.
It seems like it might be within the rules for Howard to retire (and thus contractually be owed $0) in exchange for a retirement gift of $40M or whatever.
But is there any indication that Howard wants to retire but for the money? If that were the case, the more realistic scenario would be for the Phillies to release him. In which case, he’d be getting the same paycheck regardless of whether he signed on with a new team.
The only thing I am aware of is a deferred payment like the Mets did with Jason Bay a few years ago. Basically cut the player since he is no longer worth the roster spot, and spread out his salary over more years so that it is not an immediate hinderance to the teams budget. So cut Howard now and pay him like $6M for the next 10 years plus whatever interest the players union requires to approve this type of thing.
Bobby Bonilla is another Mets example of this. They’re still paying that guy…
If he’s owed $60M over the next three years, I think they would have to pay him more than $60M over ten years to compensate for the effects of inflation and loss of purchasing power. Something like $70M over ten years might do the trick, but I think the idea has some merit and might be an avenue that they look into once the trade market is predictably barren.
But, Meche was ready to hang it up. Howard has given no indication that he wants to quit. He doesn’t mind the constant travelling and all that. In all likelihood, the rest of Howard’s life time earnings (inflation adjusted) after 2016 won’t come close to 20 million. He would have to be pretty foolish to turn it down.
Ryan Dempster, who pitched for the Red Sox, recently (before the start of the 2014 season) did the same thing as Meche. He left $13.25 million on the table. But, as with Meche, this is someone who is “done.” I think it is still quite noble to walk away from so much money. Something that Ryan Howard does not seem ready to do.
It may be noble to leave money on the table like Dempster did, but I don’t think it’s ignoble of Howard to collect what he’s contractually owed. We would all do the same.
Something that Ryan Howard does not seem ready to do.
Nor would ANYONE else in the league.
Big difference between $60M and $13M.
Assuming, as Fangraphs tends to do, an inflation rate of 5%, that puts the net present value of Howard’s contract at just north of $55 million, assuming also that the team exercises the 2017 $10 million buyout. Howard would be crazy to leave $15 million on the table just so he wouldn’t have to be a team’s headache anymore.
Regardless, I don’t think they can buyout his contract, as shawn said, unless the cost and time are written into the contract (ie the $10m buyout that can be exercised in 2017). The Phillies are stuck with Howard 🙁
I personally wouldn’t take a buyout for anything less than $55 million paid today.
Prior to the 2014 season, the Blue Jays reportedly asked some of their higher-priced talent to agree to restructure their contracts to free up cash to sign Ervin Santana to a one-year deal. This didn’t come to pass, of course, as Santana signed with Atlanta.
But the general consensus was reportedly that the MLBPA was willing to allow this to go through, even though the restructuring of contracts to make them more back-end loaded wasn’t coming with extra funds (to account for the future value of money being lower than the present value of money, thanks to inflation and uncertainty). But who knows.
That said, why Howard would take a $20M pay cut is a little bit of a stretch. Philadelphia owes him 60M, so the only way that him taking such a paycut would make sense requires two scenarios that seem like a longshot to me. First, he would have to feel confident that he would be able to land elsewhere and earn back whatever salary haircut he took on what Philly owed him. Second, he would have to believe that not taking the paycut would result in him never playing, nor being cut by the Phillies altogether (and he’d have to particularly care about not getting to take the field and only get paid really really well to have the best seat in the house). The first scenario is a ridiculous stretch – no team is paying Ryan Howard more than $5M at this point, until he demonstrates an ability to do something he hasn’t done in years. The second scenario is a little bit more believable, but still seems unlikely, to me.
I know what you mean, and you are probably right.
My thought is that to some degree everybody would agree to take a smaller amount upfront as opposed to a larger amount over time. Lottery winners tend to choose the upfront payout rather than a larger amount over 20 years. It is just a matter of determining what the upfront amount would need to be.
If it is $55 million, the Phillies would not agree, as that saves them nothing due to inflation. If it was $20 million, Howard would never agree, as it is too steep a discount. Somewhere between $40 and $50 million, however, I suspect the Phils and Howard would agree.
How much would Howard give up in exchange for not being required to train, travel, live in hotels, and sit the bench for 3 years? My guess is that he would agree.
But, as smarter commenters than I have pointed out, such an arragement might not be permissible.
Regardless – there is no great solutiuon. I just wanted to offer a suggestion.
With the lottery, the lump sum payout and the annuity should have the same present value, that is the lump sum payout is what it would cost to buy the annuity for the whatever number of years payouts. There are rates of return issues, tax issues, and financial discipline issues (if you are stupid with money, don’t give yourself the opportunity to spend it all immediately), but in theory both prize choices are the same.
If it was possible to buyout Howard’s last three years, you would have to value it like an annuity. I doubt Howard would take less than the present value, given this is guaranteed money, unless he thinks his new team will more than make up for the difference in value. Given he is not worth much at the moment that’s not a lot of difference so that won’t save much money. The best the Phillies could do, most likely, is spend all the money this year and get it off the books for the next two, which has some advantages perhaps.
Even dreaming this up marks me as a terrible person, especially due to how much I have railed against steroid use in baseball, but this is essentially the perfect scenario for attempting to cheat. PEDs might be Howard’s only realistic path to resurrected value, while neither the team or the player would have much reason to fear a suspension given that he is a sunk cost as is.
What resurrected value does Howard need though? He is fine, he can continue to be horrible and still is guaranteed 60 million. I would not anticipate him doing anything that could cause long term harm to himself just to give the Phillies more leverage to make life harder on him by having him and his family change teams and cities.
He can’t be traded after May without his consent, and I imagine he wants to be on the field.
I imagine that he wants to be on the field too. So why risk injury or suspension by cheating through ped use? You take the risk of ped use to get the big payday, because there really is nothing to lose other than your integrity. Howard already has his big payday, and taking a hit on his reputation or health could prevent mooney making opportunities in the future.
Agree 100% with Shawn. Improved performance on Howard’s part does not benefit Howard financially (unless the improvement is dramatic and sustained – no guarantees on either). Why risk your health or reputation.
Not to mention that if he’s caught and suspended, a chunk of the payday goes away. Just from a cost/benefit analysis, ignoring the moral implications for someone who has a reputation of being a really good guy, it’s a huge risk with little reward for Ryan.
Now if he wants to keep playing past 2017, sure, that makes a bit of sense.
He won’t be traded. No deal offered will be attractive enough for the Phillies to consider it worth the embarrassment.
Consider the Orioles. They would take him, for almost free. If the Phillies paid, say, $56 million of his remaining salary (in line with fans’ opinion of his value), they would take him with only a commitment on their part of 2 years, $4 million. However, they wouldn’t feel like they were getting a bargain. They’d feel like they were taking a $4 million chance. So the player they sent the Phillies in return would be someone on the lower reaches of their top 20 prospect list. A face saver, someone they wouldn’t mind giving up: Tyler Wilson or Mike Wright, for example.
I can see that from the Orioles’ perspective: Mike Wright for Ryan Howard and $56 million. It’s not too much to give up and Howard might turn it around and deliver some value.
But as Phillies’ fans here point out, can you see Amaro announcing it? And moreover, does it even really help Philadelphia? They save only $4 million — chump change, when their payroll is already much lower than it has been — and get a guy who probably turns out to be worth nothing.
He won’t be traded. A deal that makes sense for the trade partner doesn’t make sense for Philadelphia.
Bad contract for bad contract trade makes some sense, such as the Ubaldo Jimenezes of the world. As much as these contract make sense (and Ethier-Jimenez, BJ Upton-Edwin Jackson), however, they have rarely actually happened.
I think Jimenez has more, maybe much more, perceived value now than Howard because of more likely upside. I’m not even sure the O’s would give him away for free, as the Phillies would surely do with Howard.
Jimenez is owed about $39 million for three years; Howard $60 million for two. Let’s say the Phillies throw in $21 million to even the money: Howard and $21 million for Jimenez. Baltimore would say no; they’d rather pay $39 million for Jimenez than Howard.
I’ll bet the O’s would be happy to have Jimenez on board if they only owed him $15 million for 3 years. So they would see his overpay as about $24 million. So what about Howard and $32 million for Jimenez? Baltimore would still say no. They’d be paying $28 million for Howard and they’d rather pay $39 million for Jimenez.
You can keep playing with the numbers but I don’t think you can get to a point where both sides would be happy. Howard and $45 million for Jimenez? Baltimore *might* say yes. They’d save $24 million over what they’re obligated to spend now. But would the Phillies agree to this? They’d end up spending $84 million instead of $60 million. Would they think Jimenez is worth having at $24 million over 3 years? I don’t think so.
Isn’t it plausible that one of the contenders/pretenders has somebody go down in Spring Training/Early Season/Before the trade deadline, and Howard looks ‘okay’…that somebody takes him on for less than “full” relief? He’s a full year healthy after two broken years…
Obviously everyone is healthy and happy now, and Howard doesn’t look too attractive. Okay he’s not attractive. But a team is 42-30, and then their older/less in shape/expensive DH falls down and goes boom…and Howard is RC+ 100 then…lots of “if’s” of course.
The Phillies aren’t going to win. Ruf, Franco, and Asche don’t exactly inspire hope as the “next big thing”. With the thought that some team may actually eat 10-15 million dollars if they get desperate, just play Howard and pray it works out. It doesn’t get any worse, it can only get better once spring training and the season starts.
Roster management and 10/5 rights.
I don’t think that changes things enough. Even if somebody’s DH goes down, 2 years and $45m (assuming Philly eats $15m) is a hell of a commitment to a guy who sits as soon as you’re slugger heals up.
Philly will have to eat WAAAAAAAYYYYY more than that to find an interested party. Eating $45M and leaving them to pay $15M, maybe.
*Maybe*.
Do casual fans in Philly not realize that Howard is awful? Or do they all want him to stay and bat some ribbies for the good ol boys? I mean, if the Phillies are so concerned with the embarrassment of releasing him, maybe they should ask around first. Maybe the Phillies fans are capable mentally functioning baseball fans and realize the best Howard is a nonexistent Howard.
Basically, if you’re trading him for nothing, why not just release him? What’s the difference? I need a better reason than what you’ve given; that isn’t a 60 million dollar reason.
Probably won’t be traded, right now. He’s maybe not a total lost cause offensively as the BB% ticked up, the K% has ticked down a little bit. Swinging strike % and contact rates are still the same as career averages. FB distance was down to 287 from 304 in 2012, but still respectable. With a few tweaks to his hitting maybe hand placement or moving closer/farther from plate. He also had many personal issues this year and a very low BABIP. I trust the defense is bad, although he doesn’t look as fat to me in pictures but honestly I’ll have to trust the reports here and say he’s not good and at 35 unlikely to improve here, but I think he can turn around the batting.
The Indians could swap bad contracts (Nick Swisher). There’d need to be some other flotsam and jetsam moving around, but it could be made to work.
If I really squint, I could see Howard going in a deal with Hamels as long as about 55mil of Howard’s remaining 60mil is eaten by the Phillies. If the Phillies do that the Rangers could be the spot. They’ve got a ready SS (Andrus or Profar)to give up for Hamels plus could include a solid pitching prospect and toss in Moreland.
By eating this much of Howard’s salary he would not drag down the return for Hamels. I think the Rangers would actually see Howard at $2.5mil/yr as a decent gamble to get a guy who should put up between .700-.750 OPS. He and Fielder could share DH/1B. A rotation with Darvish, Hamels, and Holland as the top 3 would have solid potential to get the Rangers to the post season. The only question is can the Rangers afford Hamels and if so, do they want to give up the goods to get him?
Why do the Phillies care if Howard is packaged with Hamels if they are eating all his money anyway?
They don’t care, they just want to move him. In my example Howard would be…(hang on while I put on a straight face)…a pot sweetener. Daniels might like Howard @2.5mil just enough to give up the prospects Philly deserves for Hamels.
Hamels doesn’t have as much trade value as you seem to think. He’s a fantastic pitcher, but he’s paid near-market value. There’s not much surplus benefit that might be worth giving up top-tier talent.
Hamels + Howard + $55mil is not worth very much, a mid tier prospect probably, because Hamels contract doesn’t offer excess value. Maybe Andrus, given that he is pricy also, and there are replacements for him ready, along with Moreland.
I don’t understand this comment. Howard + $55M basically cancel out, so you are saying that Hamels has very little trade value? That is patently false.
Many teams would trade good prospects to have Hamels on his current contract.
It makes you wonder how these types of contracts continue to be signed every year? Ryan Howard, Vernon Wells, Barry Zito, Josh Hamilton, BJ Upton, Dan Uggla. Massive amounts of money for little or no return.
This is just a cherry picked list of contracts that have turned out good. There are also lists that can be made of big contracts that turned out quite well for the team.
It is also notable that the contracts for these players were considered laughably massive overpayments by smart analytics, perhaps with the exception of Upton and Uggla which were considered mild overpayments at the time.
What if the Phillies took back the Ubaldo contract from the Orioles as part of the equation? Howard + cash for Ubaldo and a couple prospects outside the top 15. Orioles get some cash savings, get rid of Ubaldo and give up a few lottery tickets. Phillies eat some money, get a couple lottery tickets and pray Ubaldo turns into something useful enough to flip for more lottery tickets. At the very least, it’s probably much easier to cut ties with Ubaldo for RAJ, than it is for for him to release Howard.
You’re underrating the perceived value of Jimenez. He has more potential upside than Howard. If prospects changed places in such an exchange, they would go the other way. But as I wrote above, I can’t see any way the teams could even out the money in a way that both would be happy.
The only real contract for contract swap that makes some sense is Howard for ARod. The money is about equal and both teams are just about dying to move each guy. Assuming ARod could still play 3B it could work. Yeah the Garrett Jones acquisition makes this a tougher fit in the Bronx but Jones also plays some corner OF.
Also, CLE and Swisher was mentioned. That’s another possibility.
Maybe the best way to move Howard is to do it via some package. The Phils still have Ruiz, Papelbon, and Dom Brown who they’d probably like to move, not to mention of course Hamels so they will likely go through all these permutations and maybe find one that works. I could see something involving the Halos with CJ Wilson coming back to…
I wasted too much time thinking about this today and I think I’ve got the deal:
Ryan Howard and $41 million to the Orioles for Ubaldo Jimenez. Phillies to pay $16 million in 2015, $25 million in 2016.
The timing is important.
In 2015, the Orioles save $4 million, and they take a chance on Howard as a DH. The saving isn’t that important this year, because there aren’t many places to spend it, but the O’s don’t seem to need Jimenez, and if Howard will have any value, it will be sooner rather than later.
The Phillies pay $4 million more, but they get rid of Howard, and Jimenez is not a bad pickup for a rebuilding team. They can stick him in the rotation all year and see if he gets his control back.
In 2016, the Orioles save $13 million. They have a lot of free agents after 2015 and this is the year they will most want the money. They don’t even need to use Howard; if he’s worth a roster spot, fine.
This is the toughest year for the Phillies; they spend $13 million more than already budgeted. But it’s also a year that they can most afford it, as they will be rebuilding. And again, Jimenez has some value for them.
In 2017, the Orioles save $3 million and have nobody, but that’s a deal they would take right now. The Phillies pay $3 million more but have Jimenez, which is also not a terrible deal.
I like this, some next level thinking going on here.
the phrase “eat money” clicked something in my head. Howard’s best value to ANY team is off the field for the Phils doing community outreach, signing baseballs, greeting fans, photo ops with large groups who come to the game, surprise server at the Bull’s BBQ, that kind of thing. Fun times at the park. In other words, pay him to eat with the fans. Put. the bat. Down. except for photos.
Contract insured? If so, Is it reasonable for a team in the Phillies position to keep him on the roster for possible claim $$?
DH on a team that is just beyond frustrated with finding a DH with the Phillies paying 90%?
Per this article:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12125362/ryan-howard-philadelphia-phillies-block-trades-21-teams
Howard can only be traded without his permission to 9 teams: Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox.
Toronto is not on the list, leaving Tampa and Baltimore as the only one of the three “lukewarm” to whom he can even be traded.
As noted, it seems more likely than not he would welcome a chance to play. A no-trade clause can be easily worked around.
What about Howard for Arod straight up? Does this help the Phillies at all? Can Arod play some defense around the infield as a backup? It might help the Yankees just by getting rid of the distraction.
I’m not really sure how much this helps the Phillies, since they won’t save any money, and won’t get any player capable of helping them when they might be good again. Also, it is terrible for the Yankees because Arod is the more useful roster piece for them. Howard has no use to the Yankees at all.
ARod is clearly more valuable than Howard, but he is hated by fans and management alike, yet the Yankees can’t just drop him due to the money and embarrassment, same as the Phillies with Howard. It may also be a nice treat to have ARod catch all of the hate and angst the Phillies fans will feel over the next few years rather than tainting Howard’s image as a franchise icon, even if he should have been overshadowed by the by the several clearly better players on his own team.
The deal itself would be kindof a joke though, maybe something management for either team doesn’t want.
Howard still had pretty decent offensive numbers. I don’t know why the Rays wouldn’t take a chance on him in the DH spot. You are not going to be paying much, and if he doesn’t produce, cut him then.
The guy fell off a bit, but to read these posters you would think his goose is all but cooked. I bet he outperforms Kendry Morales if he makes it to the AL.
…with Howard and Morales you’ve got two cooked geese.
what about the Rockies? they are always looking for a bargain. Howard has hit well in Colorado the and was robbed of the cycle in April 2014. The a Rockies aren’t going anywhere this year. They can trade Morneau for prospects and platoon Howard at first with Rosario. I think that platoon could easily hit 40 homers. Rockies need an attraction and Howard would be a fan favorite similar to Giambi. The baseball doesn’t break as much at Coors Field and that would help Howard. And the ball carries well to left.
The problem with him going to Toronto is that he’d still be playing 1B every day because E5 is an even worse defender than Howard. So if you include Toronto as an option, you might as well include all of the NL teams, too.
What are the rules on an international deal of some kind? You always hear (or used to hear) about past their prime American sluggers being popular in Japan/Korea. It’d take some creativity, but this may be their best option if something can be done.
I can just see it now:
Ryan Howard – The Human Posting Fee…..
Ryan Howard should not have stolen my rum.
Howard plus 100% of his 2015-2016 salary to Texas for Mitch Moreland. The Rangers would only be on the hook for the $10 million buyout on the 2017 option.
Even at this point, Howard would be an upgrade over Moreland at the plate. Philly can use Moreland as a placeholder until they’re confident Maikel Franco is ready to play every day in the majors.
Lets keep Howard and dump Amaro. He is a worse GM than he was a player. He gave Howard the big contract. He’s at least 10 years from a WS.