2015 ZiPS Projections – Detroit Tigers

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Oakland / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
While it might seem as though, at points during his MVP rivalry with Mike Trout, that this site’s authors made it their business to convince all of America about how Miguel Cabrera was a worthless trash heap of a ballplayer, that’s very clearly not the case. What he is, in reality, is one of the most talented hitters in baseball history. Indeed, among all qualified hitters ever, Cabrera has produced the 26th-best park-adjusted batting line (tied with Joe DiMaggio, for example). Even a couple years after Cabrera’s 30th birthday, ZiPS still regards him as an elite batsman.

One thing Cabrera wasn’t, really, was a talented defensive third baseman. Two years ago, for example, ZiPS projected Cabrera to save -6 runs (or concede +6 runs, as it were) at third base. Not excellent, that. By way of comparison, however, consider current third baseman Nick Castellanos’s projection at that same position: -12 runs saved (or +12 runs conceded, as it were). Even more not excellent, that. He’s forecast to produce an above-average batting line, but it would seem as though some manner of change — either moving off of, or steadily improving at, the position — is necessary.

Pitchers
The Tigers have featured some almost laughably talented rotations in recent years. Over the last three seasons, for example, Detroit starters have produced a collective 65.4 WAR. The distance between them and second-place Washington is roughly equivalent to the distance between Washington and 19th-place Milwaukee. The likely departure of Max Scherzer, however — coupled with the trade of Rick Porcello to Boston — renders the rotation less well balanced than in previous seasons. Alfredo Simon (a strike-thrower who features one of the league’s hardest fastballs) and Shane Greene (who recorded a 90 xFIP- last year in nearly 80 innings) aren’t without merits. It’s just, those merits don’t influence ZiPS’ computer math significantly at the moment.

The bullpen was also laughable at points in 2014, but not due to a surfeit of talent. Rather, they inspired the sort of laughter one produces after having just been informed he’s being audited by the IRS. Tiger relievers combined for either the fourth– or third-lowest WAR in the majors, depending on whether one uses FIP or ERA to calculate it. In either case, not great. Some positive regression is expected, but almost the same exact personnel returns and it remains a weak area for the club.

Bench/Prospects
The club’s commitment to winning in the present has necessarily come at the expense of their future — at least so far as high-end prospects are concerned. Catcher James McCann isn’t elite, but serves as a possible alternative to Bryan Holaday in the backup catcher role, or as an adequate injury replacement for Alex Avila. Shortstop Dixon Machado plays above-average defense at that position and recorded a positive walk-to-strikeout differential as a 22-year-old last year at Double-A Erie. He offers a promising skill set. Among starting-pitcher prospects, only Kyle Lobstein and Drew VerHagen are projected to produce something better than replacement-level innings.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Tigers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

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Batters, Rates and Averages

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Batters, Assorted Other

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Pitchers, Counting Stats

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Pitchers, Rates and Averages

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Pitchers, Assorted Other

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.