2015 ZiPS Projections – Detroit Tigers by Carson Cistulli January 5, 2015 After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Oakland / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington. Batters While it might seem as though, at points during his MVP rivalry with Mike Trout, that this site’s authors made it their business to convince all of America about how Miguel Cabrera was a worthless trash heap of a ballplayer, that’s very clearly not the case. What he is, in reality, is one of the most talented hitters in baseball history. Indeed, among all qualified hitters ever, Cabrera has produced the 26th-best park-adjusted batting line (tied with Joe DiMaggio, for example). Even a couple years after Cabrera’s 30th birthday, ZiPS still regards him as an elite batsman. One thing Cabrera wasn’t, really, was a talented defensive third baseman. Two years ago, for example, ZiPS projected Cabrera to save -6 runs (or concede +6 runs, as it were) at third base. Not excellent, that. By way of comparison, however, consider current third baseman Nick Castellanos’s projection at that same position: -12 runs saved (or +12 runs conceded, as it were). Even more not excellent, that. He’s forecast to produce an above-average batting line, but it would seem as though some manner of change — either moving off of, or steadily improving at, the position — is necessary. Pitchers The Tigers have featured some almost laughably talented rotations in recent years. Over the last three seasons, for example, Detroit starters have produced a collective 65.4 WAR. The distance between them and second-place Washington is roughly equivalent to the distance between Washington and 19th-place Milwaukee. The likely departure of Max Scherzer, however — coupled with the trade of Rick Porcello to Boston — renders the rotation less well balanced than in previous seasons. Alfredo Simon (a strike-thrower who features one of the league’s hardest fastballs) and Shane Greene (who recorded a 90 xFIP- last year in nearly 80 innings) aren’t without merits. It’s just, those merits don’t influence ZiPS’ computer math significantly at the moment. The bullpen was also laughable at points in 2014, but not due to a surfeit of talent. Rather, they inspired the sort of laughter one produces after having just been informed he’s being audited by the IRS. Tiger relievers combined for either the fourth– or third-lowest WAR in the majors, depending on whether one uses FIP or ERA to calculate it. In either case, not great. Some positive regression is expected, but almost the same exact personnel returns and it remains a weak area for the club. Bench/Prospects The club’s commitment to winning in the present has necessarily come at the expense of their future — at least so far as high-end prospects are concerned. Catcher James McCann isn’t elite, but serves as a possible alternative to Bryan Holaday in the backup catcher role, or as an adequate injury replacement for Alex Avila. Shortstop Dixon Machado plays above-average defense at that position and recorded a positive walk-to-strikeout differential as a 22-year-old last year at Double-A Erie. He offers a promising skill set. Among starting-pitcher prospects, only Kyle Lobstein and Drew VerHagen are projected to produce something better than replacement-level innings. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Tigers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Miguel Cabrera R 32 1B 657 90 179 39 1 31 113 3 1 Ian Kinsler R 33 2B 675 88 167 35 4 15 76 15 7 Yoenis Cespedes R 29 LF 627 88 159 29 5 27 103 10 4 Alex Avila L 28 C 454 43 89 20 1 12 53 1 1 Victor Martinez B 36 DH 530 58 145 27 0 18 79 1 1 J.D. Martinez R 27 LF 527 57 138 28 3 21 90 5 2 Nick Castellanos R 23 3B 621 61 160 34 4 17 77 3 2 James McCann R 25 C 437 39 100 23 0 6 40 6 2 Anthony Gose L 24 CF 575 66 133 19 6 6 44 34 13 Dixon Machado R 23 SS 432 43 96 20 2 4 31 6 4 Hernan Perez R 24 SS 572 56 141 24 4 6 45 20 6 Jose Iglesias R 25 SS 413 38 96 11 1 3 30 9 4 Manny Pina R 28 C 262 25 56 10 0 5 22 1 0 Bryan Holaday R 27 C 278 23 59 11 1 3 25 2 1 Miguel Gonzalez R 24 C 214 20 48 9 1 2 18 1 1 Rajai Davis R 34 LF 431 54 107 21 2 6 39 35 10 Mike Hessman R 37 1B 438 51 89 17 1 24 59 2 2 Daniel Fields L 24 CF 437 42 97 17 4 7 37 14 5 Don Kelly L 35 3B 203 23 42 5 1 3 13 3 1 Brandon Douglas R 29 2B 411 36 92 15 2 4 30 9 3 Craig Albernaz R 32 C 157 11 28 4 0 0 8 3 1 Andrew Romine B 29 SS 397 40 86 10 1 3 25 13 5 Xavier Avery L 25 LF 521 58 117 21 2 6 41 23 8 Steven Moya L 23 RF 510 55 115 23 3 21 64 10 3 Tyler Collins L 25 LF 541 54 119 21 2 15 59 9 4 Sea Bass Gonzalez R 38 SS 59 6 11 1 1 0 5 0 0 Wade Gaynor R 27 3B 485 43 88 22 2 11 45 8 2 Marcus Lemon L 27 2B 306 26 65 10 2 2 20 3 4 Jordan Lennerton L 29 1B 540 51 106 21 1 13 49 0 2 Wynton Bernard R 24 RF 597 61 136 26 3 6 43 27 17 Mean Dean Green L 26 1B 436 39 100 19 1 8 42 1 1 Trevor Crowe B 31 LF 320 31 70 13 1 4 27 10 7 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA Miguel Cabrera 657 10.5% 16.0% .232 .330 .310 .382 .542 .386 Ian Kinsler 675 6.7% 10.7% .143 .285 .272 .326 .415 .326 Yoenis Cespedes 627 6.2% 19.1% .207 .303 .275 .324 .482 .349 Alex Avila 454 13.2% 30.4% .150 .320 .229 .333 .379 .317 Victor Martinez 530 8.3% 8.7% .170 .302 .303 .360 .473 .348 J.D. Martinez 527 6.1% 23.9% .200 .339 .283 .328 .483 .352 Nick Castellanos 621 6.4% 19.6% .162 .326 .280 .327 .442 .335 James McCann 437 3.7% 21.3% .101 .298 .244 .280 .345 .278 Anthony Gose 575 7.0% 22.8% .094 .328 .254 .314 .348 .299 Dixon Machado 432 7.6% 16.4% .092 .290 .246 .307 .338 .287 Hernan Perez 572 3.8% 13.8% .092 .295 .262 .292 .354 .287 Jose Iglesias 413 4.6% 15.0% .058 .294 .253 .298 .311 .271 Manny Pina 262 6.1% 16.4% .105 .264 .234 .288 .339 .280 Bryan Holaday 278 5.0% 19.8% .087 .281 .232 .277 .319 .263 Miguel Gonzalez 214 5.1% 18.2% .086 .291 .242 .288 .328 .273 Rajai Davis 431 4.9% 16.9% .107 .312 .268 .310 .375 .309 Mike Hessman 438 7.3% 29.7% .228 .260 .223 .281 .451 .317 Daniel Fields 437 5.5% 27.2% .114 .321 .241 .291 .355 .290 Don Kelly 203 9.4% 14.8% .088 .262 .232 .307 .320 .282 Brandon Douglas 411 4.9% 16.5% .082 .283 .241 .283 .323 .270 Craig Albernaz 157 3.8% 24.8% .028 .267 .196 .237 .224 .206 Andrew Romine 397 6.3% 19.1% .058 .291 .237 .289 .295 .263 Xavier Avery 521 7.3% 24.0% .091 .324 .248 .307 .339 .291 Steven Moya 510 3.3% 32.7% .189 .310 .236 .263 .425 .300 Tyler Collins 541 6.3% 22.0% .141 .282 .238 .290 .379 .297 Sea Bass Gonzalez 59 3.4% 20.3% .053 .244 .193 .220 .246 .209 Wade Gaynor 485 5.6% 34.0% .131 .279 .196 .248 .327 .258 Marcus Lemon 306 4.9% 21.6% .070 .289 .228 .268 .298 .248 Jordan Lennerton 540 9.8% 27.0% .129 .286 .220 .299 .349 .289 Wynton Bernard 597 6.2% 18.9% .092 .303 .249 .301 .341 .281 Mean Dean Green 436 4.6% 21.3% .111 .299 .246 .291 .357 .287 Trevor Crowe 320 5.9% 17.2% .091 .274 .235 .279 .326 .268 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Miguel Cabrera 657 8.1 149 2 4.8 Frank Thomas Ian Kinsler 675 5.0 101 8 3.5 Damion Easley Yoenis Cespedes 627 5.9 116 5 3.1 Mike Devereaux Alex Avila 454 4.4 94 -1 2.3 Rick Wilkins Victor Martinez 530 6.6 125 0 2.0 Harold Baines J.D. Martinez 527 6.0 118 -4 1.8 Jermaine Dye Nick Castellanos 621 5.4 108 -12 1.6 Fernando Tatis James McCann 437 3.5 70 6 1.4 Robert Machado Anthony Gose 575 4.1 81 3 1.4 Everett Graham Dixon Machado 432 3.7 76 5 1.2 Howie Clark Hernan Perez 572 3.9 76 2 1.2 Gary Cates Jose Iglesias 413 3.4 67 6 0.9 Mike Gallego Manny Pina 262 3.5 71 -1 0.4 Pedro Grifol Bryan Holaday 278 3.1 63 1 0.3 Angelo Encarnacion Miguel Gonzalez 214 3.3 68 0 0.3 Mike Knapp Rajai Davis 431 4.7 86 -2 0.2 Dan Gladden Mike Hessman 438 4.4 96 0 0.1 Deron Johnson Daniel Fields 437 3.8 76 -3 0.1 Mike Stellern Don Kelly 203 3.5 72 -2 -0.1 Dan Rohn Brandon Douglas 411 3.3 65 1 -0.1 Casey Smith Craig Albernaz 157 1.9 27 4 -0.1 Charlie Greene Andrew Romine 397 3.1 60 -1 -0.2 Frank Mattox Xavier Avery 521 3.9 76 0 -0.3 Raphael Hampton Steven Moya 510 4.0 84 -2 -0.3 Tate Seefried Tyler Collins 541 3.9 81 -3 -0.5 Brad Bierley Sea Bass Gonzalez 59 1.8 27 -2 -0.5 Mark Belanger Wade Gaynor 485 2.8 56 2 -0.6 David Maroul Marcus Lemon 306 2.6 55 1 -0.6 Frank Moore Jordan Lennerton 540 3.5 76 3 -0.7 Todd Mensik Wynton Bernard 597 3.5 75 -1 -0.9 Joel Wolfe Mean Dean Green 436 3.7 76 -1 -1.0 Guillermo Velasquez Trevor Crowe 320 3.1 65 -2 -1.1 Doug Dascenzo *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER Max Scherzer R 30 31 31 200.0 231 58 18 171 76 71 David Price L 29 31 31 210.7 204 40 23 210 92 86 Justin Verlander R 32 31 31 202.3 183 60 18 196 91 85 Anibal Sanchez R 31 26 25 152.0 138 40 11 143 62 58 Shane Greene R 26 29 26 140.7 115 53 14 150 75 70 Alfredo Simon R 34 25 25 152.7 94 47 17 168 83 78 Blaine Hardy L 28 47 7 78.7 72 28 8 76 36 34 Joakim Soria R 31 41 0 36.7 38 10 3 34 15 14 Drew VerHagen R 24 22 22 116.3 58 39 11 134 68 64 Al Alburquerque R 29 58 0 50.7 62 22 6 44 22 21 Joe Nathan R 40 54 0 50.0 49 21 4 46 22 21 Kyle Lobstein L 25 29 28 155.7 107 58 19 177 95 89 Bruce Rondon R 24 44 0 39.7 39 20 4 38 20 19 Joba Chamberlain R 29 53 0 50.0 45 20 5 50 26 24 Alex Wilson R 28 53 0 66.0 48 27 7 67 34 32 Joel Hanrahan R 32 49 0 44.0 47 26 6 39 22 21 Phil Coke L 32 58 0 51.0 40 18 5 55 27 25 Ian Krol L 24 58 0 49.7 45 16 7 51 27 25 Chad Smith R 25 39 3 58.0 41 21 7 64 33 31 Evan Reed R 29 48 0 60.0 45 27 5 64 33 31 Bryan Augenstein R 28 28 0 44.7 30 17 5 50 27 25 Daniel Schlereth L 29 26 0 25.7 20 18 3 28 17 16 Luke Putkonen R 29 30 0 38.0 29 17 5 42 24 22 Jose Valdez R 25 45 0 45.0 42 30 6 46 28 26 Guido Knudson R 25 37 1 57.3 43 25 8 63 35 33 Omar Duran L 25 35 0 48.3 49 37 6 47 30 28 Buck Farmer R 24 22 20 93.7 71 34 17 107 63 59 Jheyson Manzueta R 25 35 0 58.7 38 27 7 66 36 34 Lefty Below L 29 22 15 87.0 43 35 13 106 60 56 Josh Zeid R 28 51 0 51.7 44 26 8 56 33 31 Joshua Turley L 24 26 21 122.7 74 47 19 143 82 77 Angel Nesbitt R 24 51 0 61.7 47 28 9 67 39 36 Alberto Cabrera R 26 45 5 83.0 69 39 14 91 54 50 Warwick Saupold R 25 26 20 111.0 71 55 18 129 78 73 Melvin Mercedes R 24 51 0 58.7 29 17 10 72 41 38 Will Startup L 30 37 0 54.7 29 23 10 67 41 38 Tim Melville R 25 16 16 69.0 42 45 13 84 56 52 Kyle Ryan L 23 27 24 136.3 68 45 25 168 98 92 Derek Hankins R 31 25 19 108.0 41 36 22 143 86 80 Shawn Hill R 34 20 18 106.7 41 37 23 143 88 82 Edgar De La Rosa R 24 25 23 113.3 57 59 23 142 92 86 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Max Scherzer 200.0 829 27.9% 7.0% .296 3.19 3.27 80 82 David Price 210.7 882 23.1% 4.5% .306 3.67 3.57 92 89 Justin Verlander 202.3 863 21.2% 7.0% .298 3.78 3.76 94 94 Anibal Sanchez 152.0 639 21.6% 6.3% .295 3.43 3.43 86 86 Shane Greene 140.7 625 18.4% 8.5% .313 4.48 4.44 112 111 Alfredo Simon 152.7 673 14.0% 7.0% .298 4.60 4.70 115 117 Blaine Hardy 78.7 340 21.2% 8.2% .298 3.89 4.12 97 103 Joakim Soria 36.7 154 24.7% 6.5% .307 3.44 3.29 86 82 Drew VerHagen 116.3 522 11.1% 7.5% .302 4.95 4.85 123 121 Al Alburquerque 50.7 218 28.4% 10.1% .304 3.73 3.93 93 98 Joe Nathan 50.0 217 22.6% 9.7% .296 3.78 3.70 94 92 Kyle Lobstein 155.7 702 15.2% 8.3% .310 5.15 4.94 128 123 Bruce Rondon 39.7 177 22.0% 11.3% .301 4.31 4.41 108 110 Joba Chamberlain 50.0 220 20.5% 9.1% .304 4.32 4.18 108 104 Alex Wilson 66.0 292 16.4% 9.2% .291 4.36 4.77 109 119 Joel Hanrahan 44.0 197 23.9% 13.2% .282 4.30 4.96 107 124 Phil Coke 51.0 226 17.7% 8.0% .309 4.41 4.07 110 101 Ian Krol 49.7 216 20.8% 7.4% .301 4.53 4.41 113 110 Chad Smith 58.0 259 15.8% 8.1% .305 4.81 4.82 120 120 Evan Reed 60.0 271 16.6% 10.0% .311 4.65 4.56 116 114 Bryan Augenstein 44.7 201 14.9% 8.5% .306 5.04 4.80 126 120 Daniel Schlereth 25.7 123 16.2% 14.6% .308 5.61 5.31 140 132 Luke Putkonen 38.0 173 16.8% 9.8% .308 5.21 5.16 130 129 Jose Valdez 45.0 211 19.9% 14.2% .308 5.20 5.48 130 137 Guido Knudson 57.3 260 16.5% 9.6% .304 5.18 5.16 129 129 Omar Duran 48.3 229 21.4% 16.2% .306 5.21 5.49 130 137 Buck Farmer 93.7 422 16.8% 8.1% .307 5.67 5.64 141 141 Jheyson Manzueta 58.7 269 14.1% 10.0% .306 5.22 5.27 130 131 Lefty Below 87.0 402 10.7% 8.7% .304 5.79 5.78 144 144 Josh Zeid 51.7 237 18.6% 11.0% .307 5.40 5.30 135 132 Joshua Turley 122.7 558 13.3% 8.4% .302 5.65 5.63 141 140 Angel Nesbitt 61.7 280 16.8% 10.0% .302 5.25 5.36 131 134 Alberto Cabrera 83.0 379 18.2% 10.3% .306 5.42 5.49 135 137 Warwick Saupold 111.0 517 13.7% 10.6% .303 5.92 5.98 148 149 Melvin Mercedes 58.7 265 10.9% 6.4% .301 5.83 5.68 145 142 Will Startup 54.7 254 11.4% 9.1% .301 6.26 6.22 156 155 Tim Melville 69.0 336 12.5% 13.4% .306 6.78 6.84 169 171 Kyle Ryan 136.3 622 10.9% 7.2% .300 6.07 6.01 151 150 Derek Hankins 108.0 503 8.2% 7.2% .305 6.67 6.54 166 163 Shawn Hill 106.7 500 8.2% 7.4% .306 6.92 6.72 173 168 Edgar De La Rosa 113.3 541 10.5% 10.9% .302 6.83 6.83 170 170 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Max Scherzer 200.0 10.40 2.61 0.81 128 5.3 Kevin Appier David Price 210.7 8.71 1.71 0.98 112 4.3 Greg Swindell Justin Verlander 202.3 8.14 2.67 0.80 108 3.8 Tim Belcher Anibal Sanchez 152.0 8.17 2.37 0.65 119 3.5 A.J. Burnett Shane Greene 140.7 7.36 3.39 0.90 92 1.4 Jason Grimsley Alfredo Simon 152.7 5.54 2.77 1.00 89 1.3 Aaron Sele Blaine Hardy 78.7 8.23 3.20 0.91 105 0.9 Dave Rucker Joakim Soria 36.7 9.32 2.45 0.74 119 0.4 Marvin Freeman Drew VerHagen 116.3 4.49 3.02 0.85 83 0.4 Michael Macdonald Al Alburquerque 50.7 11.01 3.91 1.07 110 0.4 Ryne Duren Joe Nathan 50.0 8.82 3.78 0.72 108 0.4 Greg Harris Kyle Lobstein 155.7 6.18 3.35 1.10 80 0.2 Nate Robertson Bruce Rondon 39.7 8.84 4.53 0.91 95 0.0 Santiago Casilla Joba Chamberlain 50.0 8.10 3.60 0.90 95 0.0 David Holdridge Alex Wilson 66.0 6.55 3.68 0.95 94 0.0 Matt Ryan Joel Hanrahan 44.0 9.61 5.32 1.23 93 0.0 Frank LaCorte Phil Coke 51.0 7.06 3.18 0.88 93 0.0 C.J. Nitkowski Ian Krol 49.7 8.15 2.90 1.27 90 -0.1 Tom Meagher Chad Smith 58.0 6.36 3.26 1.09 85 -0.1 Jason Cole Evan Reed 60.0 6.75 4.05 0.75 88 -0.2 Mike Bumstead Bryan Augenstein 44.7 6.04 3.42 1.01 81 -0.4 John Koronka Daniel Schlereth 25.7 7.00 6.30 1.05 73 -0.4 Scott Forster Luke Putkonen 38.0 6.87 4.03 1.18 79 -0.4 Keith Shepherd Jose Valdez 45.0 8.40 6.00 1.20 79 -0.5 Ryan Henderson Guido Knudson 57.3 6.75 3.93 1.26 79 -0.5 Buddy Carlyle Omar Duran 48.3 9.13 6.89 1.12 79 -0.5 Carl Schutz Buck Farmer 93.7 6.82 3.27 1.63 72 -0.5 Justin Pope Jheyson Manzueta 58.7 5.83 4.14 1.07 79 -0.7 Joe Davenport Lefty Below 87.0 4.45 3.62 1.34 71 -0.7 Benj Sampson Josh Zeid 51.7 7.66 4.53 1.39 76 -0.7 Mike James Joshua Turley 122.7 5.43 3.45 1.39 73 -0.7 Derrick van Dusen Angel Nesbitt 61.7 6.86 4.08 1.31 78 -0.7 Steve Avery Alberto Cabrera 83.0 7.48 4.23 1.52 76 -0.7 Mumba Rivera Warwick Saupold 111.0 5.76 4.46 1.46 69 -1.0 Steve Buckholz Melvin Mercedes 58.7 4.45 2.61 1.53 70 -1.1 Rob Dibble Will Startup 54.7 4.77 3.78 1.65 66 -1.4 Rusty Gerhardt Tim Melville 69.0 5.48 5.87 1.70 60 -1.4 Mike Gordon Kyle Ryan 136.3 4.49 2.97 1.65 68 -1.5 Mike Rochford Derek Hankins 108.0 3.42 3.00 1.83 61 -2.1 Jason Roach Shawn Hill 106.7 3.46 3.12 1.94 59 -2.3 R.A. Dickey Edgar De La Rosa 113.3 4.53 4.69 1.83 60 -2.4 Bill Malloy *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR. We hoped you liked reading 2015 ZiPS Projections – Detroit Tigers by Carson Cistulli! 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