Let’s Look Ahead to the Trade Deadline
It seems like almost yesterday when, amidst the lockout’s flurry of recriminations and constantly shifting arbitrary deadlines, we weren’t quite sure if there was even going to be a 2022 season at all. But Opening Day arrived after a short delay, and now we’re just about a third of the way through the season. The trade deadline is just two months out and as we saw last year, the elimination of the August waiver-trade period served to increase the stakes. While we don’t know the exact contours of what the pennant races will look like or which destinations make the most sense for potential trade candidates, the basic outlines of the season have been drawn. Short of some major surprises, we can start speculating about a few of the more interesting players likely to be available.
Juan Soto, Washington Nationals
The official position of the Washington Nationals is that they aren’t trading Juan Soto, no way, no how. I’m not sure I actually believe them. Soto will be a free agent after the 2024 season and has already turned down a 13-year, $350 million extension offer from the team. Plus, the longer they hang onto him, the less mega of a mega-package they’re likely to net in return for their superstar. It’s tempting to compare Soto’s situation with Bryce Harper’s, but as he approached free agency, the Nationals were fielding a team they had reason to think was competitive. This year’s squad is looking up at the Reds, and the farm system doesn’t have anywhere near the talent needed to quickly salvage the situation. The possibility of a sale and Soto’s age complicate the calculus – if Washington was able to convince him to stick around, he’s young enough that he’s likely to still be very good the next time they are. Soto isn’t posting his normal numbers, but ZiPS sees little reason to worry; it thinks that Soto’s hit data should have resulted in a BABIP closer to .320 and a slugging percentage well in excess of .500, similar to his xBA and xSLG. It would stink for Nationals fans, and putting together a deal worthy of netting Soto is its own challenge, but a trade could be a possibility come August.
J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox
I think it’s too soon to completely write off the Red Sox. Yes, the current math makes a serious run at the division title unlikely, but it isn’t completely impossible, and if you don’t believe me, ask the 1978 Yankees, who were in fourth place and 14 games back with much more of the season in the books. ZiPS agrees with our standings page, giving the Sox about a one-in-three chance of grabbing a playoff spot, almost always a Wild Card. But given the team’s recent behavior, I think they’ll be more willing to retool even with a playoff shot than a team like the Royals would be. Martinez isn’t the club’s only pending free agent, but he’s the one having the best season, and not every NL contender has nailed down their DH spot. Nathan Eovaldi is another soon-to-be free agent who could finish the season in another team’s uniform, and he’s bounced back from that brutal five-homer start against the Astros, but I think JDM will garner more interest this summer if Boston decides October is out of reach.
Frankie Montas, Oakland Athletics
Montas kind of falls into the category of unfinished business, as he’s one of the last players left standing after Oakland’s winter purge of anyone nearing a big payday. He’s pitching nearly as well as he did last season when he picked up the first Cy Young vote of his career, and the A’s have little practical need for an ace starter right now. While the A’s don’t necessarily have to move Montas this summer, this franchise doesn’t usually wait until the last minute when it comes to trading talent. Montas will almost certainly be one of the top pitchers available.
Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds
The Reds confuse me. The last time they started a rebuild, they waited far too long and traded practically every bit of talent well after the peak of those players’ value. This time, they started way too soon, eviscerating a team that was a realistic playoff contender, though not one of the NL Central favorites. Six months ago, I’d have been advocating for Cincinnati to sign Castillo to a long-term extension, but after the vivisection of the team’s core, I don’t see much point in keeping him away from a better team. After the offseason trading frenzy, the Reds did announce that they weren’t trading Castillo or Tyler Mahle, but at that point, they were attempting to maintain the façade that they were still trying to win and Castillo’s sore shoulder would likely have complicated trade talks anyway. Castillo has since returned from his injury without missing a beat and Reds fans are already more interested in the Bengals than their last-place home team, so there’s no point in pretending. I expect Mahle will follow this winter.
Martín Pérez, Texas Rangers
The Rangers are hanging around the edge of the playoff hunt, but I don’t think they are as likely to stay there as the Red Sox are; the rotation is quite shallow and the lineup is very top-heavy. The team’s ongoing rebuild means that it’s unlikely to be a major selloff, but I suspect they’ll be willing to trade players on short-term deals. We’ve seen Pérez get off to a hot start before, most notably in 2019, the season he picked up a cutter from Jake Odorizzi. That year, the pitch saw decreased effectiveness as the season went on, and he went from being a solid No. 2 starter in the first half to falling so out of favor that the Twins left him off their ALDS roster. His cutter’s been a bit different since, with more vertical dip, and he’s not relying on it as heavily this time, with his effective sinker being used more, well, effectively. Perhaps this time the magic will last the entire season.
Andrew Benintendi, Kansas City Royals
While the Royals are often hesitant to trade off their well-performing veterans, that approach generally applies more to players who have been part of the franchise for a long time, such as Salvador Perez or Whit Merrifield. Benintendi hasn’t been one of Kansas City’s core contributors for very long, and the franchise’s record is so bleak that I think this could be a case where the Royals are willing to move a veteran. And if Benintendi still boasts a .400 on-base percentage in July, they might get a surprising haul in return for the free-agent-to-be. Of the team’s other pending free agents, Carlos Santana is more likely to be designated for assignment than fetch anything in a trade and Zack Greinke’s second go round in Kansas City has yielded mixed results. In Greinke’s case, after returning to his first team, he might just walk away rather than get traded to a club he disapproves of.
David Peralta, Arizona Diamondbacks
The other NL West also-ran, the Colorado Rockies, is unlikely to shift philosophy and trade players at the deadline, but I don’t think Arizona shares that tendency. Offense is at a premium thanks to the Humidorian Reaction, and Peralta is hitting the ball harder than he has in years. I’m also inclined to think it will stick — in the short-term, at least, as he’ll turn 35 this year — in that it reflects a change in approach. In the past, even when he was having his greatest success, Peralta was always content to hit a lot of grounders, but this time around, his launch angle stands at just under 19 degrees, quite far from his sub-seven career number. More useful power, without giving away his plate discipline gains, has helped him fight back Father Time for a bit longer.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Benintendi could be a fit for the Blue Jays. Zimmer hasn’t worked out, and they need a lefty bat that can play in the OF.
Tapia hasn’t either, really. They’ve been worth -0.7 fWAR together so far. Honestly, it’s a little baffling how bad both of them are right now. Tapia is at least somewhere close to replacement level most of the time, offering defense, speed, and hitting that isn’t an absolute black hole, and Zimmer at least will usually give you speed, defense, and a few walks. They honestly looks like they’re going backwards this year, their negatives exaggerated (Tapia is literally the worst hitter in MLB in terms of chase rate) and their positives barely there or entirely absent.
If Teoscar Hernandez doesn’t turn it around, they’ll need two outfielders. Also if Ryu/Berrios are still hurt/bad in July they’re going to need a better 3rd starter as well though I do like Kikuchi. Could also use a bullpen arm or two.
Really interesting that for all the talk of a deep and potent offense, many/most of the usual suspects have disappointed, been hurt, or some combination of the two.
Bichette has scuffled so far; Teoscar has been hurt and/or ineffective; Gurriel has never really gotten going; and Vlad at a 125 wRC+ hasn’t exactly been bad, but has been a far cry from the MVP candidate of 2021.
Springer has been as advertised and quite solid, but otherwise the offense has been propped up by the likes of Espinal, Kirk, and Jansen. Just imagine if their “real” hitters were hitting!
Everything about the blue jays was “talk” for a 4th place team last year (yes, in a stacked AL East, but 4th is 4th).
They spent a good chunk of their previous year in a dinky minor league ballpark (look at the home road and pre/post toronto splits), and it has shown across the board with their regression and general underperformance. The fangraphs staff AL predictions look comical right now regarding the blue jays and the white sox, with 15 out of 23 saying one of them would be the AL champs. Toronto is wildly outperforming it’s run differential despite their record, and the white sox are 3 under .500 with a -55 run diff.
I won’t blame the odds calculators for not grasping that the team played in very odd situations, but humans should have processed that something was off.
Though there’s a lot of season left, you’re not wrong!
Looking at 2021 Jays:
Home vs road split 5 wRC+
Second best road wRC+ in baseball
Second best second half wRC+ (they were back in Toronto by the end of July)
Their best hitting month for raw OPS was September.
Probably not the right website to spew your ignorant narrative, because it’s literally a couple clicks to find out you’re posting garbage.
If you want to go by run differential, 2021 the Yankees were 6 wins better than run differential, Boston was 4 games better, and the Jays were -8. Run differential says the Jays were a 99 win club, Boston a 88 win club, and Yankees an 86 win club.
Also, it turns out when they’re at home in “dinky minor league ballpark” the opponents got to play there too, and when you have a garbage bullpen like they did in April and May, you blow a lot of games.
your researched facts have no place here
It looks like the Hernandez bounce back has already started he has been much better the last 10 games, of course too early to be sure but with his track record the last couple years and him hitting good before the injury I am inclined to believe it
Over the last 5 games, Teo’s added back 52 wRC+.
Can Benintendi play CF?
Well, he came up as one, but since then….
I suppose at this point, you’d get something between a Lance Berkman and an Adam Duvall performance there. At least his bat has regained a good chunk of its old life.
Yeah, he’s really only a LF. You don’t even want him in RF because he has no arm.
You arent wrong about his arm, but it also shouldn’t stop anybody from putting him in RF if need be. Its a pretty minor thing. on 98% of plays he will be the same in RF as LF. And you arent trading for him for his defense anyway (because he isnt that good even in LF).
Fun related factoid: In the equivalent of about 2/3 of a season in RF over his career, Ben Revere was 11.7 runs above average according to UZR and 11 runs above average by DRS.
Range > arm in overall OF defensive importance.
Yep, Jarrod Dyson is another good example. Dude has a pool noodle for an arm but the Royals would deploy him in RF pretty regularly (700 career innings) just because he could run absolutely everything down. Has a career 18.7 UZR and +18 DRS in RF.
Pretty sure Adam Eaton had a similar story when he shifted to RF.
Side note; Having Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson in the same OF was unfair. I’m pretty convinced the Royals didnt even need a 3rd OF with those two but just to be safe they had Alex freaking Gordon as well, haha.
Adam Eaton’s not a great example, because he was average to slightly below CF but he had an absolute cannon. His one random 6-WAR season came from a huge amount of defensive value that was largely from gunning down guys trying for extra bases an at an outlier-high rate.
haha oh my god, Eaton had 18 assists in 2016. Good call!
That’s bonkers.
Sooo good?
I would think Trey Mancini and Jordan Lyles could be on the move as well.
Mancini is definitely going to be available and he’d be a great fit for any team that needs a first baseman or DH. I was going to scoff at Jordan Lyles but…it actually looks like he is pitching well? Good for him.
It really depends with Soto. If you view the activity of professional baseball as solely geared towards building a team that can win the World Series, you almost have to sell now when you can get a ransom for him. It could turn into a dynasty launching trade like an MLB version of Herschel Walker to MN.
If you view the business of baseball as an entertainment business…well, you keep the only guy on your team that sells tickets, and you trade him for a smaller package before he becomes a free agent.
Selling Soto would be a wonderful way to obliterate fan interest in the short term. Just the sort of thing an owner who wants to move the team might consider. The Lerners are DC folk and I can’t imagine they’d want to move the team. If they are seriously exploring the sale of the team, however, it’s the sort of thing a potential new owner might like more than buying a $500M salary commitment.
You’d think if they wanted to preserve goodwill they’d fix the fucking clock (and the PoS that occasionally just quits)
they’re not only rostering Dee Gordon and Alcides Escobar, but playing them both every day. I think it’s safe to say fan interest has been obliterated
that’s Dee STRANGE-Gordon
Now Dee P. Gordon, that guy I would watch!
Totally agree. I love watching almost any two random teams play, but I think I would be hard-pressed to fork over money to see Victor Robles and Makiel Franco leading the charge and Joan Adon taking the mound, to say nothing of the time investment. With Soto there’s at least some chance of seeing something really special or memorable.
no one goes to Nats games now, even with Soto
Fair point!
Nats owners are trying to sell the team, which changes the calculus a bit. How it changes it, in what ways, I am not sure
I would think that the ownership will play this like the Houston Rockets did with Hakeem Olajuwan when they were trying to sell during the early 90’s. They didn’t want to sign Olajuwan to a long-term deal, but they also didn’t wan to lose him; the two sides ended up having a protracted argument about the issue until Olajuwan settled in and eventually did sign a long-term deal shortly before the team got sold.
As long as they don’t play it how the Dodgers played it with Piazza when they were going to sell and move him just to spend the same money later on inferior players.
Even from a purely on-field perspective, it’s *very* hard for me to imagine a trade in which a team loses Juan Soto and ends up better off than if they just kept the 23yo Ted Williams comp.
Like, you could trade Soto for 2 60FV guys, have both reach their potential, and *still* only end up marginally better in WAR terms. (Obviously a Soto trade would also involve some additional minor pieces, but a couple 45FVs ain’t gonna move the dial all that much.)
As far as I can tell, in almost any trade involving Soto, the best case scenario for the team that loses him is just breaking even. *He’s* a guy who can launch a dynasty, and there aren’t a whole lot of those dudes floating around, so the odds of trading him and getting another dude like that back are pretty slim.
I will also say, from an entertainment/fan perspective, that having Harper *and* Soto (and Turner!) as kids and not keeping *any* of them long-term is just a real kick in the gut.
…and Rendon.
That would be a top-4 as good as any in MLB. But it’s okay, we’ve got plenty of time left on those Strasburg and Corbin deals!
It is the timing of the production that matters though. Even if the players returned give the Nats half the WAR of the remaining Soto years, it would be coming in years when they hopefully have a much higher chance of at least making the playoffs. I.e. 3-4 wins is worth more to a team that is expected to win 85 games than 10 wins is worth to a team expected to win 65 games.
Soto is 23, he’s not some old veteran star. Soto is extremely likely to be significantly more productive than what they get back in even a decade
That’s only if they actually manage to resign/extend him. What the Nats feel are the odds of doing so is an important factor here.
I don’t think you would ever trade Soto if he would sign an extension. I mean, ever. The real question is whether he’s decided he’s just not signing one. If he’s decided he’s not signing an extension, you’re losing no matter what you do and it’s a matter of losing less.
I don’t buy this, Soto has a price
Every player has a price but that doesn’t mean a team (other than the Dodgers) can afford it.
The Nats have always played it fast and loose with deferred money so there is a big balloon looming over the team finances.
He’ll move, most likely.
But november is more liely than July.
Amen to November more likely than July. All it’s going to take is one of the big guns feeling the “need to make a move”, and the Nats end up getting a big haul for Soto. For example, if the Mets continue to give no #$@%s about payroll and sign Judge as a FA, I can see the Yankees pushing a ton of chips in to get Soto to win the headline wars (and then sign him long-term).
Yes, they are paying Max $15 M this year in deferred money. Randomly paying Rafael Soriaono $2 m
But yes, Soto will sign a 15 year 450 million dollar contract with someone and there will be a post here saying “awesome job, good for both sides” and he’ll be 30 years old with bad knees before we know it
The nationals can absolutely pay it, whether ownership cheaps out or not is a different discussion
If Soto’s just not signing an extension, then it makes sense that he goes to a team heavily into a win now-2024 window, who won’t mind paying him his big arbitration dollars the next two year. That looks more and more to me like the Brewers, who:
1) have Burns, Woodruff and Adames signed through 2024 (plus Wong at a decently priced team option),
2) have a good stock of high-tier prospects in their system, and
3) might be thinking about the possibility of an emerging Cardinals “dynasty” in the NL Central lasting through the middle of this decade.
I just can’t imagine the Brewers trading away 7 of their top 10 prospects, and I’m not even sure that would be enough for the Nationals because their headliners would be Chourio and Wiemer.
Sure would be fun to see, though. I’d like to see the Brewers go for it.
Hordes for one player deals are rare in baseball.
Last one I can think of was Von Hayes. And the best career ended up being Julio Franco.
Typically there’s an extra body or two added in so it might be 8 for 4 or something like that. If bad contracts are moving it could be 5 for 3.
Still don’t see it happening in season.
He needs to put up better numbers with the dead ball, first.
I remember the Vida Blue deal, which was pretty much a Charlie Finley salary dump – the A’s got 7 filler players and $300k from the Giants in that one.
The most recent relevant one was probably Machado going to the Dodgers for a half-season in exchange for five middling lottery tickets. This one was actually almost sensible because of the odd context – (1) the O’s hung on to Machado until his walk year because they were regularly in contention, (2) there weren’t enough trade deadline buyers that year to offer up something much greater than the value of the FA compensation pick (3) the O’s system needed depth and (4) the Dodgers had plenty of it to offer.
tz mentioned Machado, but in my mind the prime examples are:
1) Mark Teixeria for Saltalamacchia, Andrus, Harrison, Feliz, and someone else who I can’t remember. But I think the Rangers threw in some other guy too (of no consequnce to either team).
2) Erik Bedard for Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherril, Kam Mickolio, and Tony Butler.
There are a ton of 4 for 1 deals in more recent memory, including Josh Donaldson, Christian Yelich, Chris Sale, and Aroldis Chapman.
I think the spirit of this can also be found in the Mike Clevinger trade. Greg Allen and Matt Waldron were in that deal but nobody remembers that. Cleveland got back Hedges, Naylor, Quantrill, Arias, Miller, and Cantillo.
Gerrit Cole to the Astros is another 4-for-1 recently, and Jameson Taillon to the Yanks. And it was a three-team deal, but the Joe Musgrove traded brought five guys back (David Bednar, Drake Fellows, Hudson Head, Omar Cruz, and Endy Rodriguez, with the Padres sending Joey Lucchesi to the Mets to bring Rodriguez in).
Pirates often seem to like getting party favors in their trades.
While there was also a lot of cash thrown in, don’t forget about the 5 for 1 deal for Nolan Arenado just a year and a half ago.
Brewers fan here. Who makes up the “good stock of high-tier prospects” in the system?
Lol, I was including Ashby among the prospects, my bad (he’s obviously part of the immediate window).
i think part of the calculus here is that two 60FV guys would not be enough to get Juan Soto and that the Nationals would be fielding much larger offers
Considering that only 3 teams have 2 60FV guys (BAL, DET, SEA) and none are terribly competitive, this would have to be a volume deal.
I feel like no matter what I always come to the same conclusion. Harper has a 170wrc a year after posting a 167 a year after posting a 150 (where quality of contact suggests he should of put up a 190wrc). He is closer to what people thought he would be after his 1st mvp season than he is to the zips projections. 140wrc? Cmon, I love fangraphs and realize it’s a computer but he is a top 3 hitter at absolute worst in mlb, and I think it’s reasonable to think his current iteration is better than Soto.
The only scenario I can see selling Soto as a logical move is if the team wants to go full A’s/Reds and just dump all salary commitments and maximize profits by running as low a payroll as possible and pocketing the shared revenue/locked-in TV contracts, attendance/fan interest be damned. I don’t know the status of their RSN deal, but if that ends in the next couple years, then strategy might not even make sense.
If the goal is building a winning baseball team, then you do whatever you can to resign Juan Soto, even if you have to wait a few years and pay a market setting deal. There is essentially no way to get equivalent value for him in trade. The only precedent for this kind of trade is the Miggy deal which was complete disaster for the Marlins and Miggy was a year older and hadn’t been as good as Soto to that point. Unless the Nats think they can’t build a playoff contender in the next decade, the correct baseball move is probably to keep Soto and try and convince him to stay.
The looming potential sale of the Nats is even more reason to keep Soto. The value of the team is way higher with a popular superstar than it is with whatever they could get back in trade unless the new ownership group just wants to cut payroll and wants the Lerners to take the heat for trading Soto.
“If the goal is building a winning baseball team, then you do whatever you can to resign Juan Soto…”
Even if Soto wants $50 million per year? What about $75 million per year?
Obviously if Soto demands a controlling ownership stake and blood sacrifice, then you pause, but within the realms of reason, yes. If Soto wants to be the highest paid player in the game, then you should be willing to go there. How many players are going to be better than Soto over the next decade? Probably less than five.
If Soto demands a $20 million a year surcharge to play for the Nats, that’s a different story, but he probably will just want to sign wherever there is the most money and pretty much every team should be willing to go there.
there’s an argument to be made that the value of a team is on it’s balance sheet, which is why you drop payroll down to nothing
The other thing that I think alot of people are sort of overlooking is does Soto want to sign with the Nationals. As the article points out, the future is looking pretty bleak in Washington and he will have no shortage of suitors in free agency. Does Soto want to spend the prime years of his career sleep walking through 90+ loss seasons in DC when he could pick his destination for a similar amount of generational wealth?
The Nationals may have no other choice but to trade him.
I don’t think he wants to resign with the Nats unless it’s in free agency, and that should affect their calculus
I think this is definitely key. At some point, if he is refusing all extension offers, then trading him becomes much more understandable. But I certainly wouldn’t do it yet–this upcoming offseason at the earliest. For one, he’s not actually hitting that well right now (he’s still pretty great, but not anywhere near his peak). Second, he has such astronomical value right now that it’s bumping up against the upper limit of what any team would trade. I don’t think there will be that much difference if they trade him this offseason than now simply because what he’s “worth” now is probably more than any team is willing to pay.
The more I think about, the more I think that it would take a Herschel Walker type deal to pry Soto from the Nationals. At least until he hits the offseason before his walk year.
This is _fangraphs_, has someone studied the nonlinear relationship between war and (fan) attendance? Mmm, sounds like a Russian novel: “war and attendance”
Is Soto really that exciting? His biggest skill is walking. He’s not good defensively, he’s not a big time power hitter, he doesn’t steal bases. He’s a tremendous asset but is he exciting ?
Like Tatis? Or Vlad? Or Strasberg as a youngster or scherzer even now?
Part of it is that with Strasburg hurt and Corbin not really functioning, he’s the best link to the glory days. And he did have a pretty good batting average last year too, and a fair number of home runs. But it is true that he is more valuable than exciting.
I think it would be fun to come up with a list of players that rebuilding teams should take chances on, not because they’re good but because they’re exciting. For example, Marcell Ozuna (who is toxic for other reasons) is basically replacement level and on pace for 30 homers.
I think Soto is incredibly interesting if you’re a hardcore baseball fan, but for the more casual viewers you’re probably onto something here
come and watch for the chance of a double and three 9 pitch PAs tho!
Walks aren’t a skill, they’re one of the many byproducts of his still-developing, already near-superhuman plate discipline. Is he exciting? I find hitting 34 bombs/scoring 110 runs as a 20 year old (along with his monster post-season performance)., following that up with a 11 AB/HR pandemic-Ted Williams 2020, followed by a MVP-runner up age 22 year to be pretty exciting. Looking at B-Ref’s Similar Batters through age 22, his 98 HR are tied with Mike Trout, Ted Williams, and Frank Robinson, one better than Bryce Harper, 14 more than Mickey Mantle, 11 more than Ken Griffey Jr, etc. .517 is his lowest SLG over that period.
If watching Juan Soto do what he’s doing/what he’s done at 23 doesn’t excite someone, I’m inclined to take no real stock in that person’s definition of exciting.
Actually the best way Washington could move towards winning a WS is extending soto for whatever he wants
Soto kind of merits an article of his own. Namely: is there a plausible package for Soto out there? And does it come from a team that could use him now?
Looking at the top 100 prospects board, most of the guys you would want as a return for Next Ted Williams are controlled by teams that are not competing: Baltimore, Detroit, Kansas City. They’re all building around those guys, not winning now.
Like, if Julio Rodriguez and Marcelo Mayer were both in the Blue Jays system, maybe that starts a conversation. The only even remote fits I see are the Mets, Padres, Giants? (EDIT: Another commenter mentioned the Cardinals 30 seconds after my post submitted.) But it would be nice to see a professional baseball thinker person tackle this in a more serious way.
I wouldn’t rule out the Padres. They have the depth, and they have the potential of a desperation move from their GM, plus miserable performances from their OF. Abrams isn’t helping them much this year, or maybe even next. I don’t know what else you have to add to get it done, presumably a lot.
If the Nats think Grisham can rebound, a desperation move from the Padres might look like Grisham + Abrams + Hassell + other stuff for Soto. To make this palatable to Washington fans, maybe you also move Corbin’s contract to San Diego in exchange for say Myers + Pomeranz (to keep the Padres under the salary tax cap).
I think it’s probably like Grisham + Abrams + Hassell + Wood + Merrill + a couple of low level guys. That’s rough.
Padres should still do that
Since you mentioned Mayer (and Ted Williams), let’s see if there’s a sensible deal that brings Soto to my Red Sox :).
Let’s start the Soto package with Mayer and Casas, way too little for Soto but two guys that could be part of the next great Nats core. You could try to supplement with quantity vs. quality, but unless you’re dealing with Billy Beane trying to get rid of guy he can’t stand, that just won’t work with any trade partner.
However….if you’re giving up a big haul to get Soto, you are likely to want to sign him long-term. With Bloom in charge for the Sox, and with their ownership group’s focus on simultaneously funding that other team they own (the one with well-beered English partisans), they’re not likely to lock up Soto and keep either Devers or Bogaerts. So if you find a third party who can offer up a stud for Devers, then adding Devers might almost give you what you need.
So, maybe something like:
Soto for Devers, Casas, Mayer, Bello, and PTBNL (say Rafaella), then trade Devers to Milwaukee for Wiemers and Hiura.
“well-beered English partisans”
I see what you did here.
I think that does it. The only problem is, does Soto really want to sign an extension if they just sold the future to get him? This is the irony of the situation. If it’s just the money, the Nats probably would give it to him.
Would they? There’s all that deferred money coming due.
Plus they’re looking to sell. Adding more long term debt reduces sale value. Teams looking to sell reduce long term obligations, not boost them .
Signing Soto long term now calls for a minimum 6/230+ years, more likely 17/500. And what is the team’s market value? Under $2B, right?
I don’t think you can do both. Not with the Nat’s capped revenue streams…
17 years?!
“well-beered English partisans”
This is such a deep cut and made me happy.
Dont ever underestimate the insanity of Jerry Dipoto.
Somehow, I think any Soto deal has to be at least a 3-way or 4-way affair. That likely doesn’t happen without a healthy dose of Jerry D 😉
I think this might depend on what the Nats would see in Kelenic and Brash. If they like Kelenic, then a Noelvi Marte + Brash + Kelenic + Harry Ford + Hancock deal would get it done. That would they’d have an outfield with both Julio Rodriguez and Juan Soto in it.
I don’t know, that seems steep even for Jerry.
Trade for Soto has so many stumbling blocks.
1. Soto is not a rental.
2.5 years of additional control means it doesn’t make sense for teams that are going short-term win-now.
2. Soto is very valuable, but also quite expensive.
Soto is getting $17M already.
His next two years might be something like $23M-$30M.
That is a bargain compared to what he would get as a free agent for those years, but also no chump change, especially for teams wanting to stay below the luxury tax cutoff(s).
3. The asking price for Soto would be insane.
Even now, Soto probably has a top 20 trade value.
Few teams have the ability to match it in pure prospects.
Maybe some teams would be willing to eat up Corbin’s contract to reduce the prospect haul, but this would exacerbate the 2nd point.
Probably the only teams I can see getting Soto for just the 2.5 years (ie. no Matt Olson type post-deal extension) are the Padres and Brewers. The Brewers might have enough prospects to make the Herschel Walker type all-in deal, but won’t have enough payroll to keep him after his walk year. The Padres don’t have enough prospects at this point unless they literally drain their top remaining tier, but they could do an AAV-neutral swap of Myers + another short-term salary hog (Pomeranz?) and suck up Corbin’s longer-term deal.
The wild card for the Brewers is Jackson Chourio who is quickly becoming the best teenaged prospect in baseball. But I don’t know what that would make him–an FV50? An FV55? Probably not a 60. I think any deal would have to include both him and Wiemer and for the Nats to value Chourio very highly, plus plenty more. I’m not sure the Brewers have enough.
He’s been good, but I feel like he’s quickly becoming overrated. Too many grounders, babip insanely high, and its only been 25 games. I get that he’s just 18, but I want to see him sustain it for more than a month. That being said, I’d probably 50 him until he proves it at higher levels.
BABIP is unnaturally high–some of that due to bad defense, some of that due to good contact quality. Groundball ratio isn’t great (it’s in the same range as Brandon Nimmo and Bryan Reynolds, about 80% of the way down the list) but he’s not a crazy outlier like Yandy Diaz or Eric Hosmer (who for whatever reason often make it work). Strikeouts are too high, too.
So I don’t think he’s a Soto-like hitter, who was also in A-ball at 18 and basically had the same hitting profile except 1/3rd of the strikeouts. Soto was about as sure a thing as a hitter as we’ve ever seen in A-ball; I had put a 60 on him going into his age-19 year (Eric was more conservative, giving him a 50). But Chourio looks like he can stick in CF.
Who else had similar numbers to Chourio in A-ball at age 18? Of them, he is performing worse than Vlad Jr, Wander Franco, Mike Trout, and Soto and a little better than Evan Carter and Manny Machado. Interestingly, his closest comp in terms of performance is also this year–Edwin Arroyo in Seattle.
So, yes, probably a 50. It’s a pretty rare group but if Evan Carter was only at 45+ to start the year Chourio can’t be too much higher than that.
I’m loving the conversation here on this, because I was thinking the same thing. What do you do when a guy is projected to put up something like 15 wins in two years (plus another 3 or so after this deadline?). Since we’re talking about a megastar here, I don’t think it matters how much Soto gets paid in arbitration–we’re talking about a megastar here–so I’m just going to simplify this and say that we’re “rounding” up. Way, way up.
Converting 18 wins to Craig’s valuation framework gives you $162M. Since there aren’t really any 70s except for Adley (who isn’t getting traded), here’s what we got approximately):
FV65: $60-65M
FV60: $55-60M
FV55: $30-50M
FV50: $20-30M
Since the only 65s or higher right now are already in the majors or play for the Orioles, and the ones most likely to move into that slot aren’t likely to get dealt either (Daniel Espino is the one who comes to mind), I think you’re looking at something like a 60, a 55, two 50s, and a couple of 45/45+ types.
The only team that has 60s who might entertain this are the Padres (CJ Abrams), Mariners (Noelvi Marte) and Blue Jays (Gabriel Moreno). But Moreno hasn’t lit up AAA to start the year and the Blue Jays don’t have any 50s, and the only 55 in the Mariners system (George Kirby) is currently contributing in the majors. That leaves the Padres, and it would require them to absolutely unload their system: CJ Abrams, Campusano Hassell, Wood, Merrill…it’s a lot. I just don’t see it.
Yeah but you have to subtract the $70M+ that Soto will get paid to get his actual surplus value. That probably leaves him with something like $90M in surplus and makes a deal much more doable…but still very unlikely.
In theory, yes, you subtract his arb salaries. In practice, no, they are not trading him for that.
Rangers trade Jung, a variety of lower-level MI prospects, and take on the Stras or Corbin deal, and you have something.
I would give that a one percent chance of succeeding. The Nationals are in a big enough market that without Soto they can deal with the Strasburg or Corbin deal.
With the 12 team playoffs, it’s getting more and more difficult to determine who is a buyer or a seller. There are just 12 teams in baseball with a record of .500 or above. There are a lot of bad teams. We’re almost certainly going to get a low to mid 80s team into the playoffs this year and it will be such a bad look for baseball. Oh well.
I went back to about 2010 to see how many mediocre teams would get in and most years it’s OK with the final playoff team winning high-80’s or low 90’s but you don’t have to go far to find a mediocre team. 2017 would have seen an 80 win team get in in the AL (Rays/Royals/Angels all had 80) and 83 in the NL.
Last year, an 83 win Cincinatti team would’ve made it under the new playoff structure. They would’ve squared off against the 88 win Atlanta team in the wildcard round.
STL seems like a fit for many of these guys. However, I think Soto fits best. Goldschmidt is approaching 35, and Arenado will soon be entering his decline phase. Soto’s contract lines up with Goldy’s, and Arenado should be an above-average player until 2024, at the very least. There’s a nice three-year playoff window there, and you push your best chips in for a shot at giving Wainwright, Molina, and Pujols a final championship.
Jordan Walker has to be enticing, right? He’s a 55 FV as of last year and has a good shot at a 60 with STL’s list coming up. You probably need to send Gorman (a 50 FV), too. Both players are close to ready (within two years). After those two, you can throw in as many 45’s and 40’s as it takes to complete a deal. STL would need to push for a Soto extension, since they would be cleaning out their young building blocks, but the trade and extend is their M.O.
Maybe you think a pitcher makes more sense, but look at what they have run out in left and right — Dickerson has over 100 AB and is the second-worst hitter in MLB. Yepez hasn’t crushed it and is an awful outfielder. Nootbar is a fringe player. Donovan has been a great hitter, but he doesn’t look like an outfielder, and it’s fair to wonder if the huge walk rate will hold up as pitchers begin attacking the zone more.
Soto fills a big hole and could be the next major building block once Goldy and Arenado leave.
Honestly, I think they’d be better off trading for an SP like Montas or Castillo, then trading for someone like Benintendi. Keep Walker (I’m a huge believer), then re-sign Montas or Castillo. I feel like this team is top of the rotation pitcher away from being a serious contender. Obviously any team can win in the playoffs, but I think that’s their biggest need. Obviously Soto would be great, but I think they need the top of the rotation pitcher more.
Yepez, Goldschmidt, Arenado, Edman, Bader, Donovan, Carlson (I’m still a believer) is honestly very solid. All due respect to Miles Mikolas and Adam Wainwright, but I don’t think you’d feel comfortable throwing them out against another team’s ace. Would feel a lot better knocking them both down a rung.
You do recall that a top of the rotation pitcher (Flaherty) will be returning from the IL soon, don’t you? (Plus, Matz will also be back soon, probably even this week.)
Flaherty is coming off shoulder problems, and has only managed 118.2 innings since the start of 2020 with a 4.18 FIP. Is he still a top of the rotation starter?
Just an FYI: Walker was still a FV 55 on this year’s top 100 list. Not sure if anything he’s done this year would change that.
It would probably require that the Nats value Dylan Carlson highly. If they think Dylan Carlson is, say, a 55, then you could do Walker, Gorman, Carlson, Liberatore, and Masyn Winn. That would probably do it.
Cards should do that.
That seems viable, though I’m not sure Carlson would be valued at a 55 FV. Other teams can see his nearly worst-in-MLB Savant numbers, and his defense has been surprisingly average to below-average. If they view Carlson as a 50 FV or even a 45, that’s still a massive return.
I don’t think Carlson would be a deal breaker at any evaluation — that’s enough of a package to jumpstart a rebuild. And with everyone at AA or higher and most players major league-ready? If Carlson moves to first base, as was mentioned by Eric in past evaluations, STL would be sending an entire infield (assuming Walker sticks at third, which looks iffy). We haven’t seen a trade like that in a long, long time. Would be fascinating.
I doubt the Cardinals could afford to put a good team around them if they’re paying both Arenado and Soto $35M+ per year starting in 2024 (as well as $22M to Goldschmidt in ’24), especially when they’d be thinning out the farm so much to make the trade.
As for current outfielders, you do realize that O’Neill and Carlson are both returning from the IL this week, don’t you?
I think I’m the only one who doesn’t think Soto’s value is all that high. Yes, he’s really good, but he’s expensive, and will get even more expensive. He’s due 17M this year, and will probably make something like 50M (conservatively) over the last two years of arb. For 25M a year in free agency you could just sign a top player without giving up a top prospect. Don’t get me wrong, he has a lot of value, I just don’t think any team would be willing to give up an insane type of prospect package, then have to pay him a lot in arb and a ton in an extension. Soto is probably a true talent 5-6 WAR player. He’s not Mike Trout and he doesn’t play a premium position. I think if Soto does get traded we’ll all be saying “that’s it?”. I’m not saying he’s going to get traded for a bag of potato chips. Just saying that it wouldn’t surprise me if the industry believes Soto’s value is lower than fans think it is.
23yo Soto is 3rd in FWAR since 2019 with 16 wins just behind Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez. 28 yo Matt Olson is 29th with 10.7 wins and his 2 years of control just returned 2 50’s, a 45, and a 40.
I think Soto’s 2.5 years of control would return closer to what 4 years of Chris Sale did: a 65 (Moncada), a 55 (Kopech), and 40+ Montas as a throw-in. Perhaps, the number of teams that can make this trade is limited to those who can extend him at more than $350M, but those teams (Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Blue Jays, Astros, and Cardinals) mostly have the assets to trade for him.
Montas? Montas was not involved in that trade, the secondary prospects were Luis Alexander Basabe and a relief prospect of little note.
I think a lot of people are overlooking just how young Soto still is. He is only 23 and it is completely reasonable to think he might get better as a hitter. I looked at Miggy, Trout, Harper, and Machado who all came up very young and were very good very quickly and they have all had higher wRC+ post age-23 season than thru age 23. They posted some of their highest WAR seasons very young, but their hitting on the aggregate improved as they lost some defensive and baserunning value. Soto provides little value there as is and it doesn’t look like the drop off is near as steep for players who weren’t getting their value there to being with.
the fact that he provides no positional/defensive/baserunning value already cuts both ways tho
Positional/defensive/baserunning value just does not matter that much long-term when you’re talking about a hitter if this caliber. Look at Jayson Heyward: do you think the Cubs fans or FO care that the guy provided defensive value to make up for his anemic bat? Hitting is by far the most important thing a position player can do. Which is why Soto is closing in on 20 career WAR before age 24.
He can’t lose value he never had. Miggy was basically in the same boat and was pretty close to static in those areas into his mid-30s.
If the greatest player in the history of team sports can be traded, in his prime, the offseason after winning a championship, then so can Juan Soto.
That said, I don’t believe there is a package out there Washington can get to make it worth their while, especially in the middle of a down season.
Wait are you talking about Mookie? That trade also looks like a fleece. Downs is trending towards non prospect status, Verdugo hasn’t hit this year, Wong looks like a backup at best. And Mookie? Well he’s looking like maybe the best player in baseball.
I am reasonably sure that the player being described is Wayne Gretsky. Across the various team sports, this didn’t happen to Trout or Bonds, nor Lebron or Jordan. Messi left FC Barcelona in free agency. The only other guy it could be describing is Ruth, although he was ‘sold’ not traded per se and that was a century ago.
Ah, thanks. I barely follow hockey. Though I have followed the Rangers a little because they’re apparently good
Hoc-key?
To be fair, Gretzky was essentially sold as well. The Oilers owner was going broke so the Kings gave him $15 million to land Gretzky.
For context, the 10 highest paid players in the NHL at the time made just under $6 million combined. Even today, not a single NHL player makes $15 million per year (and in todays money that $15 million would be ~$36 million anyway’s).
The Gretzky trade is one of the most insane things in sports history.
There are a few guys who would probably be making that kind of money if not for the salary restrictions but yeah, the Gretzky trade wasn’t about merit and is another where it was impossible to get true value for the guy.
Babe Ruth wasn’t really traded. He was sold so that the Red Sox’s owner could fund a play.
Jose Quintana is for sure going to be traded!
The main reason I don’t think Soto will be traded is because Buster Olney says he likely will be and he’s always wrong and already lost his farm.
Another candidate to be traded: Adam Frazier
I’d love to see a companion piece on need-driven trades upcoming. What are the Phillies, for example, going to do to fill in for Segura?
Call Cleveland. 😀
I guarantee there will be a lot more angles on this stuff next couple months! And almost certainly not just from me. Think of this as our initial salvo into the deadline season.
It would be funny if the Phillies sign Cano
Cesar Hernandez should be available, and he probably still knows his way to the ballpark in Philly.
If the Mariners keep scuffling, Adam Frazier is going to be on the move again too.
Other than Soto who I don’t think is moving, this is kind of a meh list of options.
12 Playoff slots.
Plus a dead ball.
Plus no sticky stuff.
Plus an early trade deadline.
Less sellers, less trade bait.
I expect a few challenge trades: swapping underperformers.
David Peralta and Martin Perez are pretty meh. JD Martinez and Luis Castillo and Frankie Montas are not.
As a fan of a playoff/possible WS contender, I would gladly welcome many to most of these options. Montas? Castillo? Martinez? Benintendi? Yes please sign me up today.
David Bednar will be a very hot name in July.
I don’t even think he’s hit arbitration yet. The cost would be exorbitant.
I don’t think they’ll trade him but they should. Relievers aren’t real (outside of like 5).
Nats, please do not ever trade Soto. I might bail on the nationals if you do! I last lived in DC in 2007, but I’ve kept my loyalty for years. Rendon, Harper, and Turner have all been favorites of mine. You always choose to let the guy go I want to keep and keep the guy’s I’m willing to lose. It might break my heart to much if Soto was traded. My purchases and revenue do not move your needle, but I can’t be alone!
I would think that any player who is playing even decently and whose contract is up on the Reds (Pham, Drury, Naquin), Cubs (Contreras, Smyly), Orioles (Mancini, Lyles), Marlins (Bass, Aguilar), Rangers (Kole Calhoun), Nationals (Bell, Hernandez, Doolittle), and Pirates (Quintana, Perez, Gamel) will be available. I’d add the A’s and Royals and some other teams too but there aren’t a lot of players on those teams that fit that description (or were mentioned in the article), or their playoff hopes are uncertain (the Mariners probably will be trading players, but they still have some time to make it interesting).
The more interesting question is whether there are teams that don’t see themselves competing this year or next year, like the Reds with Castillo and Mahle, or the A’s with Montas. The Cubs probably have to make a decision to either extend or trade Ian Happ, or the Marlins with Brian Anderson. With the expanded playoffs this can be pretty hard to justify unless you know you’re in trouble (like the A’s and Reds do), but I think that’s where some fun stuff might be.
The most fascinating names who might be available are Ramon Laureano and Sean Murphy, who are both very good but who are blocking cheaper, younger, and highly touted prospects. IMO, I would probably keep Laureano and trade Murphy because I don’t think Pache will ever hit enough to play every day and I think Langeliers will, so I don’t think that Laureano is blocking anyone. But since they traded for Pache so they might think differently.
Laureano isn’t blocking Pache or anyone else. They have no other outfielders
Assuming you mean Roberto Perez on the Pirates, he’s out for the season with hamstring surgery and IIRC made noises about wanting to sign with them for next year.
Agree that Quintana and Gamel are likely to move if they get a decent offer, though there’s no guarantee anyone gives them more than what they got for Jordan Lyles. I’m rooting for Quintana to get at least 1.7 fWAR as I believe that would be the most of any Pirate whose name begins with Q, he has to catch Mel Queen. (By bWAR he beat Queen the day he signed.) The Pirates also have their leading U right now, Duane Underwood; the last time they had two players who held the record for their letter was 2015 when they had Andrew McCutchen and Travis Ishikawa. One of those records is a lot more imposing than the other.
ESPN has a list up with 148 names on it, that’s almost 20% of all rosters, but it’s mostly the bottom 20%. (Not a single Cleveland player suggests the list is incomplete, though.)
And if we look at the standings there’s maybe two divisions really up for grabs and one is AL central. I don’t see too many teams changing their positions with trade. Yet. At least a month before we can tell if any big deal would make sense.
I actually sort of disagree with Dan on Benintendi–if I was the Royals I’d think hard about extending him if he’s willing to take a deal that extends him for 2-3 more years. He’s not as good as he is playing right now but he’s playing better than he played last year and he’s young (he turns 28 in a couple of months). I also think that the market is going to be pretty cold for him, so if that’s the case then I’d rather keep him around.
Ditto that. I think he ends up taking a pillow deal if he’s not extended, even if his numbers stay strong for all of 2022.
Hello, anybody home? Wilson Contreras? I guess nobody needs an All Star catcher.
He should be available but as a rental. Last few years even big name rentals go “cheap”.
12 Playoff slots, remember?
If Rizzo can get Kevin Alcantara, Contreras might grad something of worth. Still, probably see Happ being traded if/when the Cubs wave the white flag this year – 1 1/2 years of control would get the Cubs something more likely to help them for 2024 and later, when they’re probably back to win-today mode.
Though I have no ill will toward the Red Sox, I’m kinda rooting for them to fall apart, so that the Mets can try to trade for Nathan Eovaldi’s services. Even if deGrom and Scherzer return in the second half—which is hardly a given—the risk of losing one or both again is just too high, not to mention the other health risks within the rotation. There are some clear parallels between the 2022 team and the 2006 team, and I’m sure Steve Cohen (and any Mets fan over the age of 23-24ish) remembers what happened that year.
As a Red Sox fan, I hope they either find a second gear and get their playoff odds over 70% this month, or fall apart enough to justify selling. Eovaldi would fetch some good, much needed prospects, of which the Mets have several.
The Mets aren’t dealing their top prospects away so good luck with that strategy.
certainly not for a rental. The guy who makes sense for the Mets would be Bednar since Diaz is in his walk year. I could see the Mets allocate resources to acquire a controllable late inning RPer.
That’s how they got Diaz to start with.
Just saying… 😇
Ah yes, the 2006 Mets lost the NLCS to the 83-win Cardinals mainly because injuries had weakened their rotation even further than the very mediocre one the Cardinals were trotting out.
With Soto’s name being bandied about, let’s not forget that Josh Bell has quietly put himself back in the upper half of everyday first basemen. I have a gut feeling that he ends up being the best mid-season pickup for a 2022 postseason team.
Would love to see Greinke return to the Brewers, in a package with Benintendi. Cain is knocking on the door of retirement, and another lefty bat in the OF would bring some balance. At this point in his career, Greinke fits the mold of a spot starter/long man, and having his personality back in Milwaukee (and alongside Brent Suter) would be great.
Benintendi isn’t a CF, though. So you’d need somebody to replace Cain.
I think that much of Greinke’s personality quirks are much of a concern, but I don’t think I would necessarily call them positive either.
As a Brewers fan, I’m actually getting pretty wary of bringing in more “veteran leadership” guys that cost $12M/year and put up negative WARs.
I think the Nationals are very unlikely to trade Soto, I think they would need an exorbitant return that would include at least one high end controllable starting pitcher if not two to patch what is one of the worst rotations in baseball right now. Starting pitching has been a high priority under the Rizzo-Lerner tenure ( Even if many of their 1st round pitching prospects have failed,) I don’t suspect that philosophy will change for the moment. That being said Josh Bell will most definitely be traded to anyone who has a whole to fill at 1B DH.
I understand the logic, but I don’t know if I like the Redsox trading JD.
They are only a half game out of a wild card spot, and have a better run differential and baseruns record than all the wild card contenders (including the Jays and Rays).
Plus, will be adding Sale/Paxton to their staff eventually. I think this looks like a team that will be playing meaningful games down the stretch.
Of course you always listen, but they would have to be blown away given a) they are still in it and b) they can QO him and get a pick.
Is there a team really willing to trade a haul for an old DH? If not, they should hold on and QO him IMO
Below .500 and only half a game out of a wild card spot. JFC I hate the expanded playoffs already.
The expanded playoffs are an abomination to the sport. After the Angels loss yesterday, there are only 5 teams in the AL above .500. There are only 6 teams in the NL above .500. At this point, if you’ve got a good squad, you can basically just check out as a fan until september/october.
The worst part is – the playoffs will only get larger fields from here. It’ll never shrink.
I mean I think it depends on the year.
Last year, that last spot would have gone to the 90 win Blue Jays. In that year, it’s good.
In years past in may have gone to a 82ish win team. This season is looking like that.
Uh, last year the 83 win Cincinatti Reds would’ve gotten in. It would’ve been terrible. The Jays getting in would’ve been fine, but overall you’re letting more mediocre teams get in. It’s fine in basketball where bad teams almost never beat great teams. In baseball it’s terrible.
The expanded playoffs BS is a total lemon (I particularly hate the best-of-three play-in rounds, combined with the long layoff for the top 2 seeds). The only way to make lemonade from this is to simultaneously make the postseason more exciting and better reward regular-season performance.
Here’s how I’d do it:
Note that there will be a relatively unpalatable travel schedule early on in this setup, BUT, it is limited to the teams involved in the October Madness play-in. If you want to avoid that hassle, do your best to be one of the top 2 division winners (the ones currently getting the first-round bye).
I think they are moving to the college World Series model. This week’s super regional features the 24-25 Guardians hosting the 25-28 Rangers! Winner is only 3 wins from Omaha….
The issue is that I can’t think of a format that really works unless you have 16 teams in the playoffs, and 16 teams is way, way too many.
Give me 36 teams and I’ll be down with a 16 team playoff, though. Portland or Vancouver definitely need a team, either Austin or San Antonio, and either Raleigh or Charlotte. Throw in Nashville and you’ve got 4 teams already. Montreal if they can figure out the whole “outlawing other languages” problem in Quebec (nobody is going to be signing in Montreal with that). You could put one in Calgary and another in Las Vegas too.
Here is a maybe crazy thought: Soto to the Marlins for Trevor Rogers, Max Meyer and Khalil Watson and a few 45 FVs.
The Marlins have room for Soto’s salary, even for an extension. They gave Stanton a gigantic extension. Are they willing to spend now?
The Nats would control 2 starters for a long time and receive a high ceiling SS.
The Marlins could afford to lose Rogers and Meyer, because they are a pitching development machine and always seem to find under-the-radar starters (Zach Thompson, Caleb Smith, etc)
Not crazy at all, imo. There might be some hesitation to trade Soto to an NL East rival, but I can somehow believe that Nats fans might see this as a rental by the Marlins, vs. a “permanent” loss if this were any of the other three teams in the division.
Derek Jeter quit the Marlins because they refused to spend.
Thing might change but I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting.
Not even for Soto.
I could see a Cards package headed by Jordan Walker and Liberatore.
But I don’t think he’s going to be traded.
I remain convinced that the Texas Rangers should be considered a favorite for a Soto deal & extension. Just an army of young MI down on the farm with nowhere for them to go. Nats would have to be comfortable with a quantity over quality deal.