Let’s Make Some Trades: The 2019 Edition
Going into the trade deadline last year, I put on my Dictator of MLB hat and made some trade deadline moves of my own. Upon further review, it turned out that my declarations while wearing a magical, virtual hat were not binding on any team; I was unable to force those trades to actually happen. While I have not obtained the desired legal authority over the last calendar year, it was a fun exercise, so I am reviving it ahead of next week’s deadline.
The basic rules are simple. I can’t guarantee that every trade will be thought of as fair by every reader — indeed, I can guarantee the opposite — but I did make a real effort to at least construct trades that were plausible. That is, except for the very last section, where I am explicitly trying to make wild trades, spitballing how a team could pull off a trade that ought to be impossible.
The Milwaukee Brewers acquire P Marcus Stroman from the Toronto Blue Jays for SS Mauricio Dubon, OF Trent Grisham, P Aaron Ashby, and 2B Travis Shaw
Brandon Woodruff’s injury throws a monkey wrench into the works for the Brewers, and with one of the weaker rotations among first-tier playoff contenders, something’s gotta give. While Stroman has expressed a desire to go to the Yankees, the Brewers ought to have more motivation, unless James Paxton is secretly injured. Brice Turang is the shortstop horse to bet on in the Brewers system, and Dubon is sufficiently close to the majors to tempt the Blue Jays, who have seemed to prefer near-major league ready prospects for reasons that elude me. Grisham would give Toronto a near-future bat who is increasingly intriguing, and Ashby would fulfill the team’s need to have every player in the minor league system related to a former major leaguer. Shaw isn’t here to actually add much, but instead to give Toronto an opportunity to rehab his value, and clear the way for Keston Hiura for good.
The Washington Nationals acquire P Kirby Yates from the San Diego Padres for pitchers Wil Crowe, Tim Cate, and Sterling Sharp
Yes, 2019 has been a Dream Land for Kirby Yates, but the Padres have been slowly and gradually falling out of the playoff picture. San Diego is awash in young arms, but the gauntlet that pitching prospects have to go through on the way to becoming major league contributors will ensure that not every one makes it. And if everybody does, how would that be a problem? Complaining that you have too much excellent young pitching is like grumbling that your closet full of gold bars is just too dang hard to transport easily.
Washington’s window is rapidly closing, and right now, they need bullpen arms who will be both effective and who the Nationals won’t suddenly lose interest in (see: Felipe Vazquez, Blake Treinen, Austin Adams, Trevor Gott, etc). Yates is an excellent reliever having an excellent season, but at the end of the day, he’s still a reliever, and there are limits to his value. Gleyber Torres-for-Aroldis Chapman required a very specific set of circumstances to happen, circumstances I don’t think are present in 2019.
The Houston Astros acquire P Noah Syndergaard from the New York Mets for OF Kyle Tucker, P Bryan Abreu, and P J.B. Bukauskas
Syndergaard remains a phenomenally talented pitcher, but one in a bit of a rut. Does anyone really believe that the Mets are the team to figure out what’s ailing Thor and his missing slider? Houston likely won’t give up Tucker for a lesser pitcher like Matthew Boyd, so to convince them to even think about parting with their young outfielder, you need to offer something mighty tempting. Given the pitchers realistically available in the trade market, if the Astros won’t trade Tucker for Syndergaard, they probably won’t do it for anyone. It’s a serious package from the Astros, but they’ve shown the willingness to make major trades of this kind before.
The San Francisco Giants acquire P Robbie Ray from the Arizona Diamondbacks for SS Marco Luciano and P Sean Hjelle
Yes, the San Francisco Giants would probably be best-served to go into rebuilding mode. No, I don’t think the San Francisco Giants are actually going to do that right now. My sense is that committing to being sellers was always a tall ask of ownership and senior management, and would have only been a real possibility if the Giants were at the bottom of the National League. After their surge, I think the chances of trading Madison Bumgarner or Jeff Samardzija are extremely long. If the Giants aren’t in fact selling, then they might as well push in their chips rather than meekly participate in an 11-team Wild Card race. ZiPS projects the Giants as having the fourth-worst rotation in the majors right now and the worst among playoff teams. Doing nothing likely just leaves them squished like a grape, which I will let Mr. Miyagi explain.
Constructing a package for the Giants is tricky. While the top talent of the system is legitimately excellent, the depth of the system is generally abysmal. I think San Francisco’s No. 1 to No. 4 prospects or so are competitive with most other teams, but that No. 5 to No. 15 range, not so much. Arizona ought to require at least one real prospect or they might as well just hang onto Ray.
The New York Yankees acquire P Mike Minor from the Texas Rangers for pitchers Albert Abreu and Clarke Schmidt
The Yankees might prefer Stroman, but I also think they’d rather acquire a pitcher who doesn’t necessarily involve them giving up Clint Frazier right now. I’m a fan of Abreu’s upside, but the Yankees will still have to give up something significant to acquire Minor, and I think his erratic nature combined with his closeness to the majors is a good fit for Texas’ skinny rebuild. Schmidt looks like a relatively near-the-back-of-the-rotation arm, and that’s the type of prospect that the Yankees are more than willing to shed.
The Chicago Cubs acquire OF Nicholas Castellanos from the Detroit Tigers for SS Zack Short
It’s often claimed that the Detroit Tigers made a terrible trade when they sent J.D. Martinez to Arizona. I’d argue that’s not actually true, and that the team got the going rate for a couple months of a top hitter with no defensive value. As in the past (*cough Fulmer cough*), the Tigers seemingly dithered when it came to getting value for Castellanos, and now that he’s reverted essentially to his pre-2018 form, a lot of the trade value he may have had last winter is gone. The Cubs actually have the ability to move their right fielder to center, a luxury most teams don’t have, which gives them the flexibility to fit Castellanos in the outfield. Short is interesting, though hardly a top prospect, and I think interesting is all the Tigers ought to expect in return.
The Atlanta Braves acquire P Ian Kennedy and cash from the Kansas City Royals for P Kyle Muller
Yes, it’s weird to me too, but Kennedy has been a legitimate plus as the closer for the Royals in 2019. His step forward as a reliever has been significant enough to get a decent pitching prospect in return, something that would have sounded absolutely impossible to me four months ago. The Braves don’t necessarily need a closer, but they do need a bullpen arm, and with me having already given Yates away and the team probably not wanting to pay the price the Pirates will demand for Vazquez, Kennedy seems like a reasonable upgrade. Muller is a bit buried by Atlanta’s pitching prospect depth, and he’s close enough to the majors to entertain Kansas City’s delusions that they’re going to be a contender again very soon.
Having engaged in the sensical, let’s indulge the strange (and completely unlikely).
The Los Angeles Angels acquire pitchers Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg from the Washington Nationals for OF Jo Adell, P Jose Suarez, P Griffin Canning, 2B Jahmai Jones, OF Brandon Marsh, and pay every last red cent of Scherzer’s and Strasburg’s salaries
This will, of course, not actually happen. That’s why these are crazy trades. Nobody buys the Sane Glue.
The Angels have essentially frittered away much of the value brought by the best player who will ever be a member of the Los Angeles Angels organization. You can build a 90-win team by starting with a .500 team and then adding Mike Trout, yet Los Angeles has only managed to do this once in Trout’s career.
I’m not sure you can actually get the Nationals to the point where they’re serious sellers; the team’s resurgence has been too strong for that. But if there’s a team that ought to have the sufficient motivation to lop off the top of their farm system, it ought to be the Angels. This trade will only happen in Imaginationland, but it’s fun to daydream about.
The Tampa Bay Rays acquire P Zack Greinke and cash from the Arizona Diamondbacks for OF Jesus Sanchez and P Matthew Liberatore
Wouldn’t it be fun to see the Rays on the receiving end of one of these big money trades? If picking up Greinke and going on a deep playoff run still can’t get the fans interested, you might as well just move to Montreal or Portland or North Carolina full-time, with no weird seasonal sharing arrangements. The Rays remain a team analysts love but fans hate; we live in a world in which many thousands more people have heard Baby Shark than have listened to a Bruckner symphony. Even the Kansas City Royals managed to figure out how to briefly ignite Royals-mania.
The Cincinnati Reds acquire 2B Whit Merrifield from the Kansas City Royals for 3B Jonathan India, P Tony Santillan, and OF Jose Siri
While this ought to be more in the plausible zone, the Royals seem to have the idea that they’re trading Chris Sale or Francisco Lindor. I think this is a more realistic return for Merrifield, who while a legitimate star on a team-friendly contract, turns 31 this winter. The Reds don’t have an obvious home for India right now, their pitching issues have taken a sunny turn, and Siri strikes me as the type of player the Royals will absolutely love. The Reds have been unlucky this year, but they remain a plausible contender in 2020.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
some big boy deals here
Why wouldn’t the Rays be interested in Castellanos? Isn’t he a big improvement over their current DH options?
Also why no SP to Braves proposal?
to your second question- if Gausman is even ok, the Braves don’t need another starter, and they definitely need relievers who can throw strikes in the major leagues. Because, for some reason, their pitching prospects can’t hit the strike zone with regularity and seem to be pretty much perpetually “working on something”
I think the other part of it is that your top 3 pitchers have an outsized importance in the playoffs but the 5th starter often gets left off. It would be worth getting another pitcher because of the concerns over Soroka’s health and Keuchel’s readiness but on paper they have enough depth that I’m not sure Stroman/Minor/Bumgarner would be that big of an upgrade.
knowing Snit, they’ll throw Kyle Wright up there in game seven of the world series to “work on his curve”
(I agree though I don’t think they really need a starter)
I wouldn’t think he is better than Lowe/Garcia.
I would. But we can disagree.
I don’t think that is the issue. Against lefties, Garcia can play in the outfield and Castellanos could DH.
My question about the Rays and Castellanos is not just are they interested, but if that is all he can get, couldn’t the Rays easily top it without really weakening their farm?
Meadows has played the most games at the DH spot this season, and I don’t think Castellanos is better than him. I think he’s probably better than Garcia, though.
I just don’t see how he is much more than a platoon outfielder for the Rays. He would be taking playing time from Meadows, or Lowe (either potentially depending on the plan with Brandon when he returns) Brosseau, or Garcia). While he is likely better than some of those guys, I don’t feel as if he moves the needle much, if at all.
No interest in that package for Syndergaard as a Met fan. This team already has too many outfielders who can’t play center and simultaneously has an absolute dearth of pitching talent in the high-minors / major leagues. Trading someone with Syndergaard’s upside for a poor-fit bat whose development has stalled in Triple-A and a couple whatever pitching prospects (one of whom has never been healthy or good) would be awful.
Not sure why 3 people have down-voted you, when you’re completely correct. If the Mets are trading for an OF’er, it has to be someone who legitimately plays CF. Between Conforto, Nimmo, and Smith, corner outfield is covered. And I haven’t even mentioned Cespedes (Laugh, but we’re paying him next year, you can be sure the Wilpons are going to try and get something out of him), as well as JD Davis and McNeil having to spend time there so lesser players can play every day at 2B and 3B. You can argue whether or not the Mets are smart enough to recognize this, but there’s no debating that you’re correct in pointing it out. Tucker is a great prospect. Great prospects can still be a bad fit. If the Mets are trading Syndergaard, top flight pitching prospects, CF’er, or catcher needs to be coming back. You can argue over whether any team is able/willing to meet that price, which is why a trade is unlikely in the first place…
Don’t the Mets have insurance on Cespedes where it is in their best interest if he doesn’t ever play? Ala Ellsbury.
Perhaps. Getting accurate financial information on the Mets (Wilpons) is like trying to solve Kryptos. If it is, rest assured those funds will not be reinvested in the team’s payroll.
if SDNY can’t get a straight answer from the Wilpons, no one can
Plot twist: the Wilpons were downvoting it.
Sooo one of touki/Wright, Waters, and Contreras would do it?
/trade them Dan Uggla and salary relief
Not that I disagree– but if the Mets are trading Syndergaard, is Conforto likely that far behind?
Woof, as a Giants fan I would riot if they traded Luciano for Ray. He’s their highest upside prospect and is making the prospect mavens salivate. He could be a top-20 type of prospect a year from now. Ray is a serviceable 3rd starter with one more year on his contract. Granted, the starting pitching market is thin and you’d probably have to overpay, but that price is too steep.
When you’re drowning in the ocean, swapping your diamond ring for a life preserver is a good swap! Even moreso if it’s a coinflip that the diamond may actually be glass.
If the Giants want another now, they’ll have to sacrifice the future for now. And if they won’t, there’s no reason to bother with hanging onto Bumgarner or Samardzija or Smith.
I can see hanging on to Bumgarner if they want him past this year
I like the way you think Dan.
Ring’s fly forever!
This was the one that stuck out to me, too. The Giants really cannot move Luciano, and if they do, they need a player a tier or two better than Ray. This seems like a good home for Jason Vargas for someone they will miss much, much less than Luciano.
Exactly. Zaidi is too smart to move Luciano at all, but if he did, it’s not going to be for a #3 starter that may or may not be an upgrade over existing assets.
Let’s not forget here that Zaidi is a master of the shuffle, and has already shown an incredible ability to find value. He also doesn’t care one whit about moving players around for best impact, and the Giants may only have 5 or so “flashy” prospects, but they do have more pitching depth than most give them credit for. Having DRod, Menez, Suarez, Blach in their pocket to rotate as needed, as well as being a bit over a month away from bringing Cueto back, is a huge asset.
I disagree about Vargas, though. He doesn’t seem like the type to fit in with this clubhouse.
I totally forgot about Cueto lol. Cueto at 80 to 90% effectiveness is probably the best stretch run addition the Giants could hope for.
That trade for Stroman has the Brewers picking up a very nice player, for absolutely nothing.
You guys need to all come to a consensus whether I’m having the Brewers give up far too much or far too little for Stroman. YOU’RE DESTROYING MY DILLON OVERTON WINDOW.
The Braves can probably top it with a Wright, Foltinewiecz plus other stuff for Stroman and Giles
if they can convince the Blue Jays to move to Gwinnett that might even work out for the Jays
I’ve been throwing a Thor to the Astros deal around.
Astros get:
Noah Syndergaard.
Mets get:
Forrest Whitley
Josh James
Derek Fisher or Bukauskas
The Astros get their playoff pitcher to slot in behind Verlander and Cole. They also get a Cole replacement for the next few seasons. The Mets get a young controllable potential front line starter that would have likely been untouchable a few month ago. They get a starter that the Astros don’t want to start for some reason in Josh James. And either Fisher or Bukauskas have their merits as a third piece.
I’d also be interested in whether as Springer for Bauer swap make sense for both teams. But that could be more of an off-season trade.
No Boyd?
As dictator, I have to led the underlings do *some* of the trades to preserve the illusion that I am overseeing a representative democracy.
Trade proposals are guaranteed to make everyone angry, but the Brewers trading double the value for Marcus Stroman that the Yankees are trading for Mike Minor is pretty clearly not going to happen (that might be the ask on Stroman, but those two deals don’t make sense in the same offseason with the same bidders because Minor and Stroman are comparable in so many ways). It’s funny though, Albert Abreu is exactly the sort of guy that Cashman likes to swap in this situation. On or eligible for the 40-man? Check. Got some prospect hype a couple years ago? Check. Has shown some signs of life, so that you can sell them before the bottom falls out? Check. But no way that’s the winning bid for Minor.
Kirby Yates has a much higher price tag (rightly or wrongly) than Wil Crowe and a some extras, and Wil Crowe is probably the next guy up for the rotation anyway. Didn’t someone (maybe even Dan) write an article showing that the Nationals keep trading away good arms in the upper minors who they suddenly need the next year? Robbie Ray for Luciano is a fair deal that makes zero sense because the D-Backs are a better team than the Giants right now….even if the Giants are sellers, do they have to be buyers?
Stroman has a longer track of goodness
+1 on the Abreu and exactly the type of guys Cashman likes to trade. Had the exact same thought before I read your comment.
JMO, that trade would be another steal for Cashman. Minor is probably not enough to get the Yanks #28, but it fits with Hal’s primary objectives- incremental improvement at minimal cost and long term commitment.
The other thing is that the Blue Jays may have kind of an interesting idea of what they want back. Remember, last year they picked a package headlined by Brandon Drury for the best rental starter on the market. I don’t know who the equivalent of that would be this year. Orlando Arcia? Jake Bauers? Jose Peraza? Ryan McMahon? Tony Kemp? Travis Shaw maybe, but it’s a big maybe.
I agree with a lot of the sadtrombone comments above (and in general), but I don’t share the conviction that “no way that’s the winning bid for Minor.”
Let’s remember that Mike Minor is a guy with a 4.30ish FIP/xFIP/SIERA, a projection for a 4.40ish era, and a track record of being a 4.30-4.40ish ERA starter.
I don’t see Cashman paying up for some LOB% pixie dust.
Being on the hook for $19/2 for 2019-2020 isn’t awful, but for a 32+ yo starter of mixed quality, it’s not terribly special either. (IE, it was the high bid in what was effectively an open auction just a few months ago)
I understand where we are in the season/playoff hunt, and where the Yankees are on the win curve (and depth chart). I just don’t see a bidding war breaking out for this profile.
(As a complete aside, if I were a player/agent, I’d try to structure a tax/COLA adjustment into my deal for any trade. Moving from Dallas to NYC would cause Minor to lose 10%+ of his gross income at the same time his cost of living doubles. Not ideal.)
While I agree Mike Minor is not a sub-3 ERA guy, even with his projection for a 4.4 era that’s still a 3-4 WAR pitcher. With a little aging for next year that puts him at around 25 million in surplus value over his contract for the next season and a half. That’s not Verlander by any means but no way two fringe prospects are equivalent to 25 million in surplus value. By the prospect valuation thing done here at fangraphs they’re closer to 8 million. That’s calling for John Means-like regression.
I think the bigger issue is that Abreu is a mess and Clarke Schmidt is a 23 year old doing well in A+. Swap out Abreu for someone who can play and you’ve probably got a deal.
As far as Mike Minor goes, he’s #40 in SIERA and #25 in FIP- for qualified starters, with a 1.5 years of control and a reasonable salary. That’s what, a #2? A #3? That’s got to be worth more than a guy who can’t hit the strike zone and a guy who looks good now but has lost a ton of development time to injury. I understand why some people might prefer Stroman to Minor but it’s not like they’re in different classes of value (Stroman has slightly better FIP- but slightly worse SIERA).
Stroman also >3 years younger and has a better track record. IE, 2016-2019 was 500+ IP of ~3.80 ish pitching likely has at least some predictive value (and it’s something Minor has never pulled off.)
Someone wiser in the ways of arb estimates can correct me, but he’s probably something like 1 x $10-$11 next year. I like that more than the future obligations to Minor.
It’s about the same as the future obligations to Minor in terms of cost. I don’t think age should play that much of a role in this, although there is a better chance that next year Minor will have age-related decline than Stroman.
I think it’s also fair to say that Stroman was better than Minor last year too, but it’s not like he was in a totally different category. FIP is misleading here because Texas has been a launching pad (it had a higher park adjustment than Coors last year).
They also just pulled Abreu from the game after 20 pitches and he was pointing to his shoulder. Not good.
The Padres have a ton of 40-45 guys. Also, getting Mejia last year for a similar pitcher sets the bar pretty high internally for trades. My guess is they are looking for impact guy, even with risk rather than adding to their already broad depth.
I bet the Nats would be willing to headline a Yates deal with Crowe, but some of the other pieces would have to be hitters. Otherwise the entirety of their remaining pitching prospect depth would be Denaburg (15.2 pro innings lifetime) and Romero (head case)
That crossed my mind too, but the problem I ran into is that after the top two hitters (Garcia, Kieboom), the hitting prospects that aren’t of the lotto pick variety are largely missing. I expect the Padres to be more risk-averse in their prospect selections than a couple of years ago, given where the team is progressing. And if I gave them Kieboom, I think there would have been a riot!
IMO Garcia is very tradable. Kieboom will be 2B and even if they can’t re-sign Rendon I don’t think Garcia’s bat projects well enough to be a front line starting 3B. As it stands he’s insurance for 2B/SS or a good utility INF. I don’t want to sell Garcia for a rental, but if he can get a controllable player back, I’m all for doing it.
Yes, but the Padres strike me as a poor fit for Garcia.
You guys are all forgetting about Jackson Rutledge, their first round pick this year, who’s probably already leapfrogged Crowe as the Nats best pitcher.
COL sends Blackmon and Lambert to CLE for Bauer?
Is COL picking up most/all of Blackmon’s contract? That’s the only way Cleveland would even consider trading for him. But even then, I’m not sure they’d do something like that. Blackmon is 33 years old and already declining. Lambert hasn’t shown anything yet. Meanwhile, the Indians rotation continues to be held together with duct tape which means they need Bauer if they’re going to stay in the hunt for the division/wild card.
The Rockies are stuck with Charlie Blackmon forever. Because his strengths play well with the dimensions/air at Coors, even after park adjustments (really any park adjustments you can think of) he’s way more productive there than anywhere else. His splits have always been wild but this year they’ve been comical. Also, he costs ten zillion dollars.
I still think Springer for Bauer is fair and fun.
Anything that reunites BFFs Trevor Bauer and Gerrit Cole is fun!!!
I heard a certain radio analyst suggest the Astros should trade Kyle Tucker, Josh James, and another prospect I can’t remember for Bumgarner and Will Smith. I had to chuckle a little.
I think there are some more fun deals that were left on the table here, too.
Let’s get Whit Merrifield to the Cubs, or a combo Castellanos/Greene deal to the Cubs.
Let’s free Clint Frazier to play everyday for someone, somewhere. Dominic Smith too, while we’re at it.
Greinke to the Rays…ehh? Why? How about Bumgarner? That would spice some things up.
How about a swap that involves Arrieta for Greinke, plus the Phillies sending some really nice prospects to the D-Backs? Or how about swapping Greinke for Wil Myers, plus the Padres sending some nice prospects over to the D-Backs?
Is there literally anyone the Mariners can give Mike Leake to, even if they pay most of the contract? Dee Gordon? Would literally anyone be interested in Ryon Healy?
If Clint Frazier could play defense he would be playing nearly everyday, but right now he is pretty much if you put Albert Pujols in the outfield. Reports are his defense is improving in AAA, but we’ll see. If the Yankees think he can play defense he is probably the starting left fielder next year. He is certainly a good enough hitter for the job.
1. Zack Greinke has every California team listed on his no-trade list for tax reasons, so a deal sending him to SDP is likely to receive his veto.
2. The Padres aren’t in a financial situation where they need to give away prospects to unload Myers’ deal. They are probably happier to deal with the financial burden and hold on to their depth.
If the Mariners will eat the money, which they should, sure they could give Leake to somebody. By projections he’s worth a decent fraction of a win to anybody running out a replacement-ish starter.
Dee Gordon, well, we just had the 2B RLK, so there’s a chance! I doubt the A’s want him at any price though, even with a wad to cover his 2021 vesting option uggh. Maybe the Giants’ owners can be lured to bite on him and overrule their baseball people. This is getting elaborate.
Ryon Healy is defunct.
The Twins do nothing? You can’t even make up a trade for them?
The Twins acquire Brett Boone, everyone rejoices
Don’t feel bad…last year there was nothing for the Indians…
Grist for conversation, I get it, but you lost any morsel of credibility with the first one
The second one was even worse. 1.5 years of Kirby Yates returns an FV50 at least, not just an FV45 like Wil Crowe. Minor would require an FV50 like Deivi Garcia, and McDongenhagen have said that Marco Luciano could vault to #1 Prospect. No way the Giants are trading him for Robbie Ray.
Love Dan Szymborski, but trades are not his forte.
No way the Braves trade Muller for Ian Kennedy. That’s just silly.
Kennedy has been really good this year, but I hope the Braves don’t do this deal. First, I would rather they get Yates. But, if they get Ian I would rather they not give up one of their top 5 prospects to get him. I would drop down into the Joey Wentz territory in a trade for Kennedy…then add a lesser secondary piece if necessary.
Odds are Muller doesnt turn into much but yeah, not sure why the Braves would do that deal.
They could probably call up Muller, put him in the bullpen and get similar value as they would get from Kennedy.
just what the Mets need… another left handed hitting corner outfielder
Re-read Dan’s opening paragraph: “I did make a real effort to at least construct trades that were plausible”.
Does it not strike you as eminently plausible that the Mets would make a trade of marginal utility (at best) that drives their fan base batty? That’s the most credible part of this whole exercise!
if you need someone to do something stupid for a trade to happen, the Mets remain the most plausible outlet for said stupidity
That Ray trade looks like an absolute disaster for the Giants
These all seem plausible enough except for the Yates one, which is giving away 1.5 years of the 3 best relievers in baseball at the moment for a 45 & 2 40s per Eric/Kiley. I understand Torres was an outlier, but that’s simply not going to interest the Padres.
Just how much cash is AZ throwing in the proposed Grienke deal?
I was looking forward to seeing the reds show up here, but I will say I would hate this trade for the reds.
Same here. I’m a Reds fan and I would be pissed if Nick & Dick gave up even two of those guys for Merrifield, much less all 3.
No Bauer options?
Doubt Cleveland would send him to another AL team or an NL team that might flip him back, but there ought to be a deal out there. Ideally, somebody they can play in the OF/DH now and 2B afterwards…
0 chance Giants trade Luciano. If they make deals, it’ll be bullpen for young, controllable, mlb-ready-ish players.
All I want for Trade Deadline is for Kevin Cron to get traded to a team that’ll play him every day
The singer for REO Speedwagon plays baseball?
Yeah, but he’s well past his prime.
I don’t think the Yankees want to keep Frazier, I think they want to pretend that he’s super valuable and let some team pry him away from them. I honestly don’t get the hype. He has huge K issues and is an awful defender. I think you’re talking about a 1-3 WAR corner OFer if he imrpoves a lot but his defense is so terrible, he might have to be a DH . Even this season where he looked great with a 116 WRC+ that comes with an unsustainable .347 BABIP and even then, you’re looking at around a 1 WAR player for the season and he’s almost 25 years old and in his third season so it’s not like he has the same room to grow (or cost control) of younger prospects. He also has a major concussion history which is something that can continue for the rest of his career. He’s not a bad prospect or anything, but the Yankees (and media) are talking about him as if he is an elite prospect and I have no idea where that comes from.
Yes, this is spot on, and the Yankees are better at the hype machine than anyone.
Agreed, and Tauchman has put up a 117 wRC+ and has been on absolute fire. Obviously he doesn’t command any trade value, but he is certainly a better 4th or 5th outfielder IMO.
Well, he was a top prospect before graduating. Also, he was not considered a bad defender as a prospect and even played CF. He had a few bad weeks in the majors with some terrible gaffes and that is making everyone assume he’s a terrible defender, but he’s not. Remember also that he is recovering from a serious concussion and has been reluctant to dive for balls, in fact he recently dove for his first ball this season in AAA. It’s quite likely he is an average corner outfielder going forward.
He has shown the ability to hit at the major league level and there is certainly room to improve there as well based on his pedigree and power.
Recovering from the concussion is the whole reason he should have less trade value right now. Not everyone recovers fully from concussions. If his defense is this bad at 22, 23, and 24, I somehow doubt it’s going to get any better as he gets older. He might be a DH.
Frazier has had 2 big chunks of major league playing time and both times graded out as an awful defender.
Is Huntington _really_ going to be dumb enough to hold on to Vazquez and Marte in hopes he tricks Pittsburgh into believing the team can contend in 2020? He can’t be that insane, can he?
Well he has Vazquez until 2023 and Marte through 2021, so its not like he has to rush a deadline deal. PS – NH hasnt done great in the big deadline moves.
Huntington hasn’t done a good job at really any phase of the job other than finding relief pitchers. His development team is so bad that we’ll never know if his rule 4 scouting team is any good at all. His pitching coach is behind the times. His 2018 ML hitting coach said in print that he didn’t teach anything about launch angle because he didn’t know how to. His ML manager is comfortably in the bottom 20% of skippers in MLB and wasn’t any good at managing young rosters even before he got to Pittsburgh. Glad he’s got 3 more years :0=
Dude, it is absolutely ridiculous that you think [team] would trade [player] for that haul. That’s a friggin joke. Don’t you know that [player] has a surplus value that far exceeds that of [player, player, and player]? May as well just ask [team] to throw in [player] as well, am I right. I mean, maybe if [team] included [player] in the mix I’d at least consider it, but even then they’d have to kick in at least [money] to make it feasible.
Not surprising, though. You’ve always had an anti-[team] bias.
{I hereby bequeath to you every upvote I’ve ever gotten – Serb.}
to Hawaiian to Basque to Yiddish;
Women are very annoying and thoughtful [groups] to do this. This is a happy chameleon. Don’t you think the student salary player is much larger than the player and the player? I request [team] to throw [the player], I need it. I say, I think [the player] should join the team, but they should earn the most money.
This is not interesting. You have an anti-counter game.
Hawaii in Basque Country;
Women are very upset and deliberately [groups] do it. It was a happy chameleon. Do not you think students are much bigger than players and players? I’m asking [the team] to throw [toys], I need it. I said, I think [players] need to join the team, but they will get the most money.
Not funny. You have a fight against the fight.
My team is looking for cost-controlled, young prospects with flashes of brilliance that also have a high floor and are near-MLB-Ready. I am willing to give up: aging, costly players no one wants, any prospect #15 or below from our system, or role players that have played well for 2 months that I now overvalue (unless they are fan favorites, then I vastly overvalue them).
I hate to break it to everyone, but your #3 prospect that peaks on some list at #68 overall right now is not actually worth much.
Related: I always laugh when I see that a team is looking for “controllable talent” or is only in the market for players that aren’t rentals. Sure you are, but unless you’re Dave Dombrowski you’re probably not willing to do what it takes to get it. I guess it doesn’t hurt to try trading Albert Abreu or JB Bukauskas for something, but you shouldn’t expect to be getting controllable, impact MLB players for it.
Brian Sabaen found out about the internet.
/hides the phone from Billy Eppler so he can’t call you back
I don’t see the Dbacks trading Ray to the Giants. The Dbacks playoff chances are as good as the Giants.
Yeah but unlike the Giants, the Dbacks have a GM that is actually willing to build for the future. I mean, they had about the same playoff chances coming into the season and traded Goldy for a package that looks incredible for AZ right now.
What would make you say that the Giants don’t have a GM that is willing to build for the future (aside from the fact, of course, that they don’t have a GM at all)? Zaidi is clearly willing to build for the future, but this is a team that can obviously compete.
You don’t tear down by trading your best players for just anything. Bumgarner and Smith aren’t going to return top-50 prospects, so you have to weigh that against a potential playoff run. If nothing is compelling on the trade front, there’s nothing wrong with taking a draft pick off a QO.
They are, but the DBacks roster is on the verge of needing a complete overhaul soon anyway. All of the following are FA after next year: Peralta, Ray, Walker, Lamb, Souza, Ahmed, and Chafin. None of those guys is under 26 so they aren’t particularly young. You either re-sign them or try to replace them through FA but you’re probably looking at replacing them with equally uncompelling talent.
No, the rebuild started last year with letting Pollock and Corbin walk and trading Goldschmidt. That netted them a bunch of draft picks and most everyone likes their draft this year. I suspect the tear-down continues, though it may wait until the off-season
If the Giants call up offering Luciano for Ray, the DBacks would probably respond, “Is this Dave Stewart?”
Greinke is exactly the kind of player the Rays should be targeting in trade. Yes, he’s high dollar, but it’s only two more seasons after this one – and apparently those seasons the Rays will compete.
Heck, he’s exactly the kind of player every contender should be targetting. Market price for two seasons of ace pitching? Yes, please.
Phillies look like best fit for Greinke (if moved) because, unlike TB, they can absorb that entire contract and still offer quality prospects
This big issue here is that Greinke allegedly has the Phillies on his no trade list whereas the Rays are not on it. Greinke is also on record as saying he likes it in AZ and doesn’t want to be traded, though that isn’t a guarantee obviously. But it makes it easier to make a hypothetical trade to TB than PHI in this context.
thank you kindly for the hyperlink to the NES Kirby intro, you’re doing the lord’s work Dan
“Does anyone really believe that the Mets are the team to figure out what’s ailing Thor and his missing slider?”
Umm, yes? It appears as though the Mets already figured out what was ailing Thor and his missing slider.
From Tim Britton’s twitter: Nearly 40% of the swings-and-misses Noah Syndergaard has gotten on his slider this season have come in his last two starts.
True, but it’s also against two dreadful offenses.
May not have anything to do with anything, but Stroman’s dad played for the NY Giants, and that is probably the source of that preference
I wonder if the Giants could simultaneously go for it, and trade Will Smith. His value will never be higher, and they have reasonable alternatives in Moronta, Dyson, etc.
I think this is likely. Smith has been great, but the bullpen is an actual source of depth and strength for this club. If they really want to let it ride, Smith will get a good return without significantly altering their playoff chances.
The Jays have a wave of offensive talent arriving at once and appear to be short pitching. They aren’t poor – why not extend Stroman? Is there just too much bad blood from arbitration?
Extending him makes sense if you believe this level of success is sustainable. There are reasons to believe it’s not. In that case you sell high and say thank you.
Did you just decide the Twins don’t need anything??? MN has one of the deepest minors in the league and you can’t create something out of that? Disappointed…
I like the Arz/SF deal for both… the Astros trade is interesting but everyone has been including Buskaukas in hypothetical deals and he’s been terrible as a pro and came out of college with concerns he’s a reliever… his value is likely very low.
The Stroman deal lacks a top prospect/impact player and I would hope the Jays will avoid falling for quantity over quality. Teams like Boston, Milwakee, Cincinnati, Washington and Philly lack the org depth to acquire big names… unless they part with their absolute top prospects… and even then may be a stretch for some.
Angels get: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Deivi Garcia, Albert Abreu
Yankees get: Mike Trout
Interesting proposal. Judge and Torres are like 6WAR/5WAR players with Trout 9WAR. Yanks would replace Torres with Urshela this year, maybe Andujar going forward, but that’s a pretty big loss with Urshela projected as ~1WAR and Andujar maybe 3WAR. Might be a loss for the Yanks overall this year (not to mention severe budget issues) but a gain over the next few. Probably not worth it for them especially if Trout doesn’t like the limelight and marketing.
I can’t believe someone looked at that trade and thought that the YANKEES would be the ones losing out this year or any year.
You forgot to add the part where Arte Moreno has to go into witness protection.
Fun times. What do you think of a Mets/Angels blockbuster? Seems like theres a trade in there somewhere.
Is Syndergaard, Wheeler (rental) and Dom Smith for Adell, Canning, Marsh, Suarez fair?
Thor has three arb years left, and is still affordable/controllable, plus they get 5 years of a young good emerging bat in Smith to fill their 1B hole, as well as a good 2nd half rotation rental in Wheeler (who had an amazing 2nd half last year) for a playoff push.
The Mets replace Thor/Wheeler innings with good SP prospects Canning/Suarez. They also get a needed CF prospect in Marsh, not to mention, one of the top prospects in all of baseball in Adell.
As a Mets fan, I would LOVE that trade, which I think tells you the Angels would run away very fast.
I think Adell is probably one of those untouchable guys right now. You’re not getting him in a trade anymore than you’re getting Baby Vlad or Eloy or Tatis Jr.
Fair enough. I suppose I was valuing him similar to Tucker in Dan’s proposal, but didn’t realize how awesome Adell has been this year. That does muck things up a bit.
Adell’s probably the #2 prospect in the game right now, behind the wonder Wander kid. That’s not untouchable but the last time a prospect of that caliber got traded Chris Sale came back in return, and with a nice cost-controlled contract to boot.
Before that, you’re probably looking at Wil Myers getting traded as part of a package for James Shields and Wade Davis, back when both were good.
Before that you’re probably looking at Cameron Maybin, getting traded with Andrew Miller for Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera (!!!!). (Yeah, remember that one?)
Jo Adell, if he is getting moved, is going to be moved for someone on that Top 50 trade value list, and probably on the upper half.
Robbie Ray for Luciano and Hjelle has the potential to be worse for the Giants than the Tatis and Johnson for Shields trade was for the White Sox.
No it does not (but yes no way giants do it nor should they)
I’ll kill Farhan Ziadi if he makes that trade
Rays get Narvaez (c- platoon with Zunino, completes the set) + Domingo Santana (dh with RF capacity) for Brujan and arm (Honeywell is a risk, how about him?).
Who are these people the Ray’s are supposed to be getting?
Castellanos for Short seems extremely logical, a fair asking price and a hitter the Cubs could really use.
How about the Reds take on some salary in that deal and lessen the prospect cost, maybe take on Ian Kennedy and his 16M commitment for 2020 or go real wild and take on Danny Duffy?
> I think San Francisco’s No. 1 to No. 4 prospects or so are competitive with most other teams
Besides Bart, Ramos, and Luciano, who is #4 – Alexander Canario? Logan Webb?
Hunter Bishop
Right!
Luciano/Hjelle for Ray makes absolutely no sense. If they want to go for it this year, they can add a serviceable starter (maybe worse than Ray) for so much less. It’s the offense you need to add on if you want to “go for it”.
I agree that this trade is not worth even exploring, as Luciano is way more valuable than Ray (much less adding in a kicker with Hjelle), but the offense is not the long-term (only speaking about this season) problem. The biggest impact players the Giants could target have too high a trade cost, so they’d be targeting depth for the OF mostly. Nothing that could be seen as really making a difference day-to-day.
While there is lots of depth at SP after the top 4 of Bum, Shark, Beede, and Anderson – DRod, Menez, Suarez, Blach, Cueto (eventually) – that’s the area that could use a boost down the stretch.
“The Braves don’t necessarily need a closer. . .” Really? Have you seen Luke Jackson pitch?
They don’t if they have no intention of winning.
At a time when the bullpen is more important, you want the Braves to go in armed with a pitcher sporting 3.35 ERA, 3.24 SIERA, who closes in low-pressure situations for a team that’s not in a race. The Braves give them a good pitching prospect and pay Kennedy $5.5M the rest of this year and $16.5M next year: if the Braves had that kind of money to throw at a closer, they’d have signed Kimbrel at the same time we signed Keuchel.
Sounds like you’re trying to ease the Royals payroll and dump the Braves out of the postseason in round one again.
Pass.
Fangraphs has decided that Luke Jackson is good. Despite the fact that he isn’t.
“Nobody buys the Sane Glue.”
This is the most preposterous statement in the piece! Elmer’s is the best selling glue, and is very nearly in Kleenex, Q-Tip, Dumpster proper noun rarified air precisely because it is the measured and even keeled glue the world demands.
Best of all, it’s certified equine-free!
Just neighing.
I think the Cardinals have worked their way into being hesitant buyers, and they need pitching. If they’d take Greinke and his entire contract, they could probably work something out with Arizona. Greinke doesn’t have that much surplus value, so maybe Tyler O’Neill and smaller parts could get it done. St. Louis doesn’t make deals like this (taking on huge amounts of money), but they’d dramatically improve their rotation without hurting their current team much, and O’Neill isn’t a player they’ll miss. A lot of big dollars drop off the books for STL after 2020 (Molina, maybe Andrew Miller) and 2021 (Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, club option for Kolten Wong, vesting option for Miller). Greinke fits in quite well with St. Louis’ competitive window.
Arizona robbed St. Louis of Carson Kelly, so maybe they’d like another bite of the apple. Or, they’ve already gotten the players they liked in the STL system and don’t want anyone else. Who knows?
As a padres fan if that nationals deal happened I would be incensed
Somebody (sadtrombone?) made a comment elsewhere about the likelihood of Joey Bart’s control years being wasted during the Giants’ upcoming nuclear winter-level rebuild. So rather than moving Luciano (whose MLB control years better fit a Giants recovery), why not move Bart instead? Something like Bart plus Derek Rodriguez for Minor and Mazara would make a lot more sense than Luciano for Ray.
Though, ANY deal where the Giants move prospects with trade value above the Duggar line for a 2019 WC push would be utter malpractice on Zaidi’s part.
lol are you expecting an 8 year rebuild???
Yeah, that was me. It’s wild…of their Top 5 prospects, 4 of them have ETAs on THE BOARD of 2023, and the fifth one is Joey Bart, who is listed for an ETA of 2020.
That said, Joey Bart is somehow still at A+, so I doubt we see him until some point in 2021 anyway, even if everything goes well, and potentially not until later in the year. At that point, it’s less of a concern. And while I’d love to see a straight-up challenge trade–Joey Bart for another FV55 with a higher ceiling and who is further off–the only guy to fit that bill is Luciano.
So, I guess I think it will be okay. As long as the Giants don’t do anything stupid and starting trading prospects for veterans because that’s not going to end well.
You mention Syndergaard’s missing slider, but his slider was back with a vengeance his last start so I’m not sure it’s missing anymore. If it looks good again tonight I’ll be pretty confident that he’s already fixed.
“Nobody buys the Sane Glue” is just an A++ line. 80 grade.