Let’s Make Some Trades
(Photo: Lorie Shaull)
There are only 24-ish hours remaining until baseball’s trade deadline and, truth is, I’m a bit impatient. Until free agency opens up in about a hundred days or thereabouts, this is truly our last great opportunity to let our imaginations run wild. Sure, we can conjure up some fun trades in August, but our whimsical mind-meanderings just aren’t as exciting when all of the players we trade have to go through imaginary revocable waivers.
Against my worse judgment, to which I typically cater, I endeavored to make my last-minute deadline trades to retain at least a whiff of plausibility. So, no blockbuster Mike Trout deal, no winning Noah Syndergaard in a game of canasta, and no Rockies realizing that they have significant other needs other than the bullpen.
Bryce Harper to the Yankees
Washington’s playoff hopes have sunk to the extent that, even if you’re as optimistic as the FanGraphs depth charts are and believe the Phillies and Braves are truly sub-.500 teams as presently constructed, the Nats still only are a one-in-three shot to win the division. If you’re sunnier on Philadelphia or Atlanta, those Nats probabilities lose decimal places surprisingly quickly.
The Yankees are in the awkward position of very likely being a 100-win team that has to play a one-game Wild Card game to reach the “proper” part of the playoffs, where respectable teams play five- and seven-game series rather than these winner-take-all peasant matches. There are only so many sources of upside that are obtainable this deadline, and even in a weak season, Bryce Harper has as much upside as anyone in baseball. With Aaron Judge out for a decent chunk of time, Harper is the perfect add to make up for such a gigantic loss and, really, a lot more fun than finding at-bats for Luke Voit.
Allocating playing time to everyone upon Judge’s return may require some creativity, but it’s a short-term issue and, really, too much awesomeness is like a zeroth-world problem. You ever angrily return soup for having too much deliciousness?
Chris Archer to the Brewers
Chris Archer’s been linked to the San Diego Padres and, truth be told, that’s not a result about which I’d complain. I don’t mind, in theory, the Padres picking up players ahead of time those of the quality that are hard to develop yourself. Eric Hosmer would fit that role, for example, if Hosmer were a significantly better player.
But the Brewers have both been aggressive at going win-now over the last year and lost out on both Yu Darvish and Jose Quintana to their division rivals. Let Milwaukee grab a pitcher! Archer’s not having a great season by any measure, but he’s more likely to put together an ace-like run than some of the team’s overachievers. Plus, with the Dodgers reportedly actively seeking out Archer, there’s a benefit to preventing a possible playoff opponent from having him.
Nicholas Castellanos to the Diamondbacks
I don’t think Michael Fulmer is actually moved, but there at least a chance that Nicholas Castellanos is. Arizona’s still in the thick of the NL West race, even if you consider the Dodgers the better team (I do), but the offense has been a real problem. Only nine of 440 modern clubs have teams made the playoffs with an OPS+ under 90, and Arizona’s 84 OPS+ would tie the 1969 Mets for the third-worst mark in history. Eduardo Escobar can’t come close to fixing that by himself.
| Rank | Team | Year | Wins | Losses | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | D-backs | 2007 | 90 | 72 | 83 |
| 2 | Mets | 1973 | 82 | 79 | 83 |
| 3 | Mets | 1969 | 100 | 62 | 84 |
| 4 | Braves | 2001 | 88 | 74 | 87 |
| 5 | Browns | 1944 | 89 | 65 | 87 |
| 6 | White Sox | 1906 | 93 | 58 | 87 |
| 7 | Dodgers | 1959 | 88 | 68 | 88 |
| 8 | Cardinals | 1987 | 95 | 67 | 89 |
| 9 | Dodgers | 1965 | 97 | 65 | 89 |
| 10 | Rockies | 2017 | 87 | 75 | 90 |
| 11 | Braves | 2012 | 94 | 68 | 90 |
| 12 | Cubs | 2007 | 85 | 77 | 90 |
| 13 | Astros | 2005 | 89 | 73 | 90 |
| 14 | Dodgers | 1996 | 90 | 72 | 90 |
| 15 | Dodgers | 1988 | 94 | 67 | 90 |
| 16 | Red Sox | 1916 | 91 | 63 | 90 |
| 17 | Red Sox | 2017 | 93 | 69 | 91 |
| 18 | Cubs | 2003 | 88 | 74 | 91 |
| 19 | Braves | 1995 | 90 | 54 | 91 |
| 20 | White Sox | 1959 | 94 | 60 | 91 |
The team’s offense is more one-note than, uh… I don’t know… than a song that just has one note in it, I guess. When Goldschmidt struggled in May, the team hit .193/.264/.316 and scored 2.9 runs a game. The problem was similar last year, so why not go to the same well this year for the same problem, solved last time with the acquisition of J.D. Martinez? Castellanos is obviously not as good as JDM, but Arizona would get that additional year so as to not have to figure out how to solve the same problem in July 2019.
I could also give Harper to Arizona, too, but I’m trying to avoid paradoxes that can’t easily be fixed even with a time machine.
Scooter Gennett to the Pirates
It’s taking time to get Jung Ho Kang back into the Pirate infield, but with the team streaking their way back into the pennant race, an upgrade to third base, by way of moving Josh Harrison back to the hot corner, could give the Pirates a short-term boost. The Reds seems dead-set against trading players at the top of their value, while the Pirates have displayed a real aversion to pushing their chips when their hand looks strong. Why not solve both in one fell swoop by moving Scooter Gennett? Cincinnati’s really not going to build a team around an extended second baseman entering his 30s, will they?
J.T. Realmuto to the Red Sox
Getting the Marlins to pull the trigger on a J.T. Realmuto deal might be the tricky part, depending on whether they’re as firm internally on demanding large returns for players as they’ve postured in public. Even a team winning nearly 70% of their games can have a weak spot and, for the Red Sox, that’s behind the plate. The team’s catchers have hit .223/.270/.332 this season and the ostensible starter, Christian Vazquez, is out with a broken finger.
Given that you can’t weld Sandy Leon and Blake Swihart together and make one good catcher — you actually just end up in prison — why not pay for the best catcher likely available on the trade market? It would cost Boston real prospects, but Realmuto is solid all around, has the top batting line among major-league catchers, and has two more full seasons after this one until he’s a free agent.
Mike Trou
No, I said I wouldn’t do that.
Andrew McCutchen to the Phillies
After hitting a lot like the bad version of Chris Davis, Aaron Altherr got himself demoted, while Nick Williams continues to play the outfield as if he’s auditioning for a baseball version of The Producers. Philadelphia doesn’t need to find their long-term fit at the position this month, but Andrew McCutchen would be a nice fill-in and likely superior to Adam Jones, with whom they’ve been linked.
For the Giants, McCutchen is the player who makes the most sense to move. While still theoretically in the playoff hunt, the club’s math is increasingly daunting, but it’s very unlikely that given that the team isn’t actually going to start rebuilding, they trade any of their core.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
I’m just going to assume that the Thor/canasta comment is brilliant wordplay linking the card game Hand & Foot (related to Canasta) and Hand, Foot, and Mouth disease. Bravo Dan, bravo.
How would one go about welding two large men together anyway? I think if you are able to pull it off, you ought to win a prize, not go to jail.
I suppose it all depends on the willingness of the participants….
They made a series of documentaries about this. I believe they are called “Human Centipede”.
If the Nats are really going after Realmuto in an effort to right the ship, and they’re willing to discuss giving Robles to the Marlins, then there’s no way the Red Sox could match. They don’t have anyone close – Dealin’ Dave has decimated that farm.
I think a far more honest comment would be that Dave Dombrowski has built a team that has a record of 74-33 while the prospects he has sent away are populating the rosters of such powerhouses as the White Sox and the Padres who are doing somewhat less well.
Prospects take time to develop, Dombrowski has in fact decimated the farm, but that’s what he was hired to do, flags fly forever and as of today the Red Sox have the best record in baseball.
Part of the reason you build the farm system up is so that someday you can shove all your chips into the pot and have a real chance at adding that banner to the collection. So I don’t object to Dombrowski looting the farm system, but there’s no point in pretending that he hasn’t done so.
Dodgers and Yankees seem to demonstrate that, no, the reason you build up the farm is so that you can win every single year and don’t hit a wall someday like the Red Sox roster will in roughly 2020 or 2021.
Agreed, I think Henry is going to sell, which is why he has allow Dumbrowski ( the collector of one-armed relievers) to sell the farm. It is going to be quite a wasteland for the sawx in 2021 on.
Prospects exist (in the esoteric, abstract sense) to make your MLB team better at some point in the future. You can trade them or keep them, but their goal remains the same. Dombrowski treats his farm system (with the Red Sox and Tigers) towards making the MLB team ready in the future, but through trading. That’s exactly how a farm system is supposed to work.
Dumbrowski hasn’t got the sawx out of the first round and never one a world series in Detroit. Where are the tigers now? Exactly where the sawx will be in two year, He has made mostly BAD trades
Let us see how the prospects develop before saying anything negative about Dombrowski’s moves. The haul that San Diego received for Kimbrel is looking like a couple of second division players, Margot and Asuaje, a complete bust in Guerra, who hasn’t hit above .216 in the last 3 years, but the lottery ticket, Logan Allen, may salvage something for the Padres. Even Dombrowski’s harshest critic cannot find fault with his genius move of getting Chris Sale. Moncada may never be much of anything, 35-40% K rates are unsightly, Basabe does not excite many in the industry and Kopech’s future is still loaded with question marks while Diaz is out of baseball. Pomeranz for Espinoza hasn’t worked out too well for both teams but Pomeranz did give the Red Sox one very good year. He didn’t trade the young players who can actually play, like Mookie Betts, who many were trying to send to Philadelphia for Cole Hamels a few years ago. Maybe the team fades after 2021 but the prospects Dombrowski has traded away do not appear to be able to contend for anything.
Case in point: when Boston was negotiating for Sale, it was fine with including Moncada, but had zero interest in dealing Benintendi. Dombrowski identifies the guys he wants around for the long haul (as he did with Devers, even though the young bat has had growing pains) and then considers how to use the rest to best help the team. He does seem to have a good sense of when a prospect’s value is high.
Yeah, I’d fallen in love with nearly every one of those prospects and hated the trades at the time. That said, subsequent events have generally proven Dombrowski right. Playoffs aside, the joy of watching Chris Sale every 5 days is fully worth the steep cost.
Yeah, when I read this bit I thought there was some serious pipe dreaming going on. There is no ‘whiff of plausibility’ here, unless the ‘whiff’ constitutes abducting Realmuto in the night and having some serious blackmail on Jeter and friends so that they don’t file a complaint when Notrealmuto enters the Sox lineup.
To be fair, you can decimate the farm system to trade for the best left handed pitcher besides Kershaw or Randy in the past 20 years.
However, I agree that they don’t have the prospects. It would be more realistic to go after Dozier or Gennett to receive a similar upgrade at a fraction of the price
It’ll be really interesting to see if they can resign him after next season when he becomes a free agent.
Later today, you identify who these players are traded for. Right?
*lol* It does seem like half of an article
The Castellanos trade for Arizona makes no sense. Escobar is a much better 3B defensively and a similar, if not better, hitter. And Arizona already has a logjam in the OF with plenty of good hitters (Pollock 144 wRC+, Peralta 121 wRC+, Jay 94 wRC+, Souza Jr. 84 wRC+ but career 105 wRC+).
The problem is that you’re trying to evaluate Arizona with OPS+ and BBREF is still using their pre-Humidor park effects (109 for hitting). I know that you’re not a fan of mid-season park factors, but there’s obviously some impact that we have to account for.
If you use wRC+ ( which has Chase Field as a neutral park currently – 100 wRC+), the Dbacks have a 90 wRC+ as a team, which isn’t as terrible as the article makes it out to be. Furthermore, here is how AZ breaks down by month:
April: 97 wRC+
May: 56 wRC+
June: 102 wRC+
July: 103 wRC+
I don’t think the Diamondbacks offense is nearly as bad as you made it out to be – nor is it as “one note” as you claim as Pollock, Peralta, Escobar, and Descalso are all over 120 wRC+ currently. They had one historically bad month – a massive Goldy slump (among others) combined with injuries to Pollock and Souza Jr.
Dbacks need pitching help, not offense.
I don’t intend to play Castellanos at 3B.
Peralta has a 115 wRC+ ROS projection, Souza Jr a 116 wRC+ ROS projection, and Pollock at 129. All three are average or better defenders in the OF.
Castellanos is slightly better than the first two with a 128 wRC+ ROS projection but he is a terrible defender in the OF (-22 DRS/-14.4 UZR in just over 1000 Inn). At this point, he is likely to be a replacement to Jay. Is that really worth it?
Furthermore, do the Dbacks have the budget to afford him next year? The Dbacks are losing Pollock and Corbin but they are already projected at $78 million for next year and that doesn’t account for arb raises to Lamb, Ahmed, Souza Jr., Owings, Peralta, Taijuan Walker, and Robbie Ray. These budget concerns only get worse in 2020, especially if they try to resign Pollock, Goldy, or Corbin.
Unless Castellanos is going to have a huge breakout, I just don’t see the Dbacks doing this trade nor it being a good trade for AZ.
“you actually just end up in prison” i fucking LOL’d. so glad to have you here, dan!
What do we make of reports saying the Marlins said no to six years of the Nationals Robles plus another minor leaguer with ML potential in exchange for Realmuto? Is there an interdivisional tax, or do they really want more than a top ten (five) prospect plus a 40+ FV? 2.3 years of the current “best catcher” is a lot, but six years of a top five up the middle player seems like a lot too.
They are trying to maximize the return.
They may be asking TOO much
If the Marlins said no to a deal for Robles, they should all be fired. Frankly, I’m not sure why the Nationals would be going so hard after Realmuto when all they need is something other than a black hole.
If I’m the Nationals, Brewers, or Red Sox, I think I’m much more interested in paying a little bit for Wilson Ramos than a ton for Realmuto.
Ramos is a this year fix. Nats might be dead in the water this year. Realmuto is useful for several more years.
Last I read the Marlins wanted Robles AND Kieboom. That’s … crazy pants.
I think that’s relevant if you think that Realmuto has had a real breakout and it’s sustainable beyond this year. I’m inclined to think that he will keep some, but not all of his gains.
Of course, since Robles isn’t that far away, if there is a decent chance that they are dead in the water this year they should probably move forward focusing on Robles, Soto, and Turner.
I guess if I thought Realmuto was going to regress, I would assume it’s just as likely to happen the remainder of this season as next. So if Washington believes he’s playing above his head, all the more reason to pass on him, even if the goal is to make a playoff push.
To me, the Nationals would be insane to offer Robles for Realmuto straight-up. If the Marlins turned Robles + another prospect for Realmuto down then I’m flabbergasted.
Hard to see the Pirates acquiring Gennett- obviously they’ve been familiar with him since his Milwaukee days and I suspect they’ll view Gennett as a product of his ballpark, while the Reds are going to demand a prospect return reflective of a superstar. Moreover, that would drop Colin Moran from the every day lineup and I can’t see them doing that. Plus, once Josh Bell returns, there wouldn’t be anywhere for David Freese, as the team remains obsessed with SeanRod’s defensive versatility.
Other than short, the Pirates have commitments into next year at every position except catcher, and they probably view Elias Diaz as next year’s starter. I’m not sure there is a realistic upgrade over Mercer, either. Brandon Crawford’s contract would cause Bob Nutting’s head to explode. As such, I think you’re looking at a rental in the bullpen and maybe, just maybe, a move for Chris Archer or another cost-controlled starter.
Home- .297/.344/.500, 9HR, 12 2Bs
Road- .340/.393/.521, 8HR, 11 2Bs
Dan totally nails this one.
“The Reds seems dead-set against trading players at the top of their value, while the Pirates have displayed a real aversion to pushing their chips when their hand looks strong.”
So nothing for Cleveland? Honestly, as bad as their outfield is, I don’t see how they can afford to NOT make a move…
BRYCE HARPER TO THE A’s!!! They’re looking for a LH OF, and he is this!
This actually seems totally in character for Oakland.
how about Harper and former Oakland A Gio Gonzalez?
Mike Trou… to literally any team that isn’t the cursed Angels.
White Sox and Giants could match up.
Avi Garcia + James shields, Nate jones for Hunter pence, melancon, marco Luciano, heliot ramos, camilo doval and Alex canario.
Giants save enough this year to avoid luxury and still have enough left for another addition. Plus get out of the next 2/28 for melancon. Still have Garcia next year(4.8 fwar, 5.5 bwar last 742 PA’s) and Jones for a few years.
White Sox get bundles of upside with huge bust potential for some money and mediocre trade chips. Melancon can even rebound next year and they can eat some money and move him for additional value.
“underperformed careers and a reliever for tons of good prospects and a bad contract”
No team would do that.
The Giants and ‘tons of good prospects’ in the same sentence. Cute.
your username might as well be “WhiteSoxFan”
Melancon and Pence have no-trades (or 10/5 rights). Almost all their highly paid players have no-trades. I will forever bring this up when people start talking about the Giants making deals right now. It’s just so, so, so hard for the Giants to make any deals right now.
Anon those points are excellent. Tb.25 I don’t think you are appreciating the payroll flexibility this trade creates, a better mccutchen and melancon moving forward plus payroll flexibility at the deadline for a team saddled with huge long term contract’s is a big win.
“Mike Trou…”
Say it. SAY IT!
The Braves will get nothing and like it!
“The team’s offense is more one-note than… ”
…a Neil Young guitar solo. (You’re welcome!)
“More one-note than a Tibetan throat singing concert.”
If Harper really has cost himself money with his relatively poor play this year shouldn’t the Nationals try and re-sign him?
“I Wanna Be Your Dog” by Iggy Pop basically has one note, right? I mean I guess when he says “come on” you could argue that he goes to a second note but nearly all of the words are all pretty much at the exact same pitch.
Kind of wondering why the Red Sox are not going all in for the next 2-3 years. If they were willing to completely gut the system, would they have enough for DeGrom + Realmuto? What if they included Devers and picked up a short-term replacement for him as well?
I think the Red Sox are betting that Devers has continued projection. Given his age, pedigree, and track record, that seems like a very good bet. So keeping him is still all-in on the next 2-3 years.
I personally really want them to go after Realmuto. There’s almost no way they DON’T hit a cliff in two years, which is when Betts departs (Sale departs after next year, and honestly I doubt they’ll be able to scrape together a contender against the 2020 Yankees in Betts’ walk year). Realmuto would be a problem for the salary cap this year, but that’s not the end of the world. He’s unquestionably the biggest upgrade they can get at any position.
The Marlins are asking for the moon though, as well they SHOULD. Realmuto is a very under-the-radar NL MVP candidate, and he seems to be a solid bet to continue that performance through his prime. He’s cheap and under control for several more years. He should fetch a very serious battery of prospects; likely a higher price than the Red Sox could meet even if they so desired.
Oh, agreed on Devers. I was just thinking that they might not have enough for a DeGrom and Realmuto and thus would have to do something like include Devers as the centerpiece for DeGrom.
Why do you think the Red Sox—one of the wealthiest franchises in baseball—would be unable to sign Betts to a long term contract extension?
Sale, yeah, I can see letting him walk. That arm has logged a lot of innings and looking at guys like Price and King Felix makes you wonder how long Sale can continue to be great.
But if the contract is structured in the right way, the Red Sox should be able to hold on to Betts. Do it this off season.
There’s no question they can re-sign Betts and likely will. But:
1) They’ll be paying him market rate, or close to it, and thus would need to come up with some other massive bargains to be as good as they are now.
2) It’s not just Betts – it’s Bogaerts, JBJ, Sale, Porcello (or whoever replaces them), Benintendi, Rodriguez, etc. all either needing to be re-signed or making big money in their last couple years of arbitration.
3) Martinez will be 3 years older – who knows what he’ll be doing then? For a player with such negative defensive value, that contract can turn from a huge bargain to a borderline burden in a hurry. So they’ll have to spend more money to make up for the defecit.
Put another way, right now, nearly all of their top players are being paid much less than what they are worth. Quick math – Sale, Rodriguez, Barnes, Kimbrel, Betts, Martinez, Benintendi, Bogaerts, and Bradley have been worth a combined ~$221 Million (in only 2/3 of a season) and are getting paid a combined ~$63 Million (for the whole season).
That’s amazing of course, and it’s why the Sox have the best record in the game. But come 2021, all of these guys will either be gone, re-signed at market rates, or in their final year or two of arbitration (and making near-market salaries).
That’s the problem – it’s incredible that they’ve come up with this group, but what are the odds of it happening again, particularly when a) they’ll be great for the next couple years, picking at the bottom of the 1st round, and b) they’ve traded away a lot of their impact-level prospects already?
Thus – go all in for the next couple years. DeGrom and Realmuto are perfect targets – big upgrades this year and under control for exactly the length of their window. With them, they’d be a megateam for at least this year and next. Then in 2021, suck it up and rebuild.
Honestly I’m not sure they need DeGrom. I mean, I love him, but he’s unnecessary and insanely expensive (in terms of prospects, he might actually command more than Realmuto). Realmuto is the larger upgrade at this point. The rotation is in very good shape, even after this year (Pomeranz is the only one walking, and he’s effectively gone already). If they want to be really really sure, they could sign someone like Eovaldi (youngish with upside but consistency and injury questions) this offseason, but I think they could stand pat on the rotation and still have one of the best staffs in baseball. Catcher though… Not so much. Their only current option with any upside is Swihart, and it’s clear that the organization just doesn’t view him as anything more than a third catcher anymore.
Do they *need* him? Of course not – you could argue that the team with the best record by far in the majors doesn’t *need* anything. But he:
a) would give them a 1-2 in the playoffs this year that nobody could match
b) has a contract that matches Boston’s window perfectly
c) gives them a true ace if/when Sale leaves, which clearly they value immensely (see what they gave up for Sale)
If you’re going to trade a lot to get Realmuto , then why really go all in and hold nothing back?
With the two of them, plus their core, they could challenge for the wins record next year.
(I’m a Yankee fan, so I don’t know why I’m arguing for this…but it just makes too much sense.)
I don’t know if they have the chips for either of those guys, let alone both.
I am also skeptical that this team is in such desperate “win now” mode, although that seems to be the conventional wisdom. Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi, and Devers are all 25 or under. Mookie is six months younger than Judge! The pitching is a little scarier, but you have Rodriguez through 2022 if he can stay healthy.
It will come down to whether the team is willing to pay these guys when they hit free agency, but there is no reason that core can’t carry the team through the mid-2020s. I wouldn’t panic buy the shiniest guy available on the market to improve a 100-plus win team.
It’s more about team control than age. There are no reinforcements coming, so once Martinez, Betts, and Sale are gone it’s a .500 team for a long time.
By the time the young core is signed to market-level extensions, the team would need to have some young (cost controlled) prospect talent approaching the Majors. You write as if you know that isn’t happening, which shows an ignorance of the developmental timeline of prospects. It isn’t clear right now whether Boston will pull that off (that’s the deal with having a weaker system now; doesn’t mean it will stay this way, but doesn’t mean it won’t either).
If you have a star core in its prime, you’re already approaching .500 no matter how the rest of the roster rounds out. The team’s large payroll then allows it to fill in gaps in the roster, even if it has to aim more for cost effective options than safe bets. Now you have a contender.
Odds are there will be some disappointing years to go with some strong ones, but you’re just guessing to claim a random .500 projection “for a long time”. There is no basis behind that claim.
I don’t claim that they’ll be .500 for a long time at all. But I do claim that the odds of having another group in 3 years like the current one, at their salaries, are extraordinarily long. No doubt some guys will emerge, but just eyeballing their preseason top prospects list, it’s not looking so good right now.
It seems incredibly unlikely that Boston will be able to extend Betts before he hits free agency. There’s been a TON of noise about them trying to do exactly that for the past three off-seasons (the first serious rumor I heard about them talking was back in the 2015-2016 offseason, before his first MVP-calibre season). Betts seems very honest and open about wanting to earn a fair market salary, and free agency is always going to be the best way to do that. He’s a smart guy, too. He’s already hit his first big arbitration payday, and he’s due for some *very* serious raises over the next two off-seasons. He knows that it’s the smarter money play for him to wait until he’s FA eligible and allow the market to set his value, especially if he continues to put up 8 and 9 WAR seasons like this.
My guess is that Betts walks. The Red Sox will almost certainly make him a good offer, but he’s going to sign for nearly Harper-tier money when the time comes, and that kind of contract is probably not in the cards in two years, with all of the core deep into arbitration (e.g. Benintendi, Rodriguez, etc) or gone (e.g. Sale).
Sale honestly seems to me to be a more likely extension candidate. He’s never really expressed a strong interest in free agency or shaking up the player compensation status quo in the same way that Betts has. Whether or not it’s a good idea to extend him is a completely different question. Questions about his long-term durability do seem a bit overblown, given how he’s silenced all of those objections quite definitively over the past seven years (September struggles notwithstanding), but he’s still a pitcher. Pitchers are injuries and heartbreak and sadness. For every Scherzer there’s a Hernandez and a Price and a Sabathia and… The list goes on.
At either rate though, Sale is going to have to be extended at close to market value, and Betts would definitely have to be extended at market value. Even the Red Sox finances have limits, especially if they want to avoid draft penalties.
Not “win now” but “win for the next 3 years.” And on top of that they’ll be huge upgrades this year as well. It does seem like their window closes after 2020, so why not maximize for that time period?
No team whose core is a young one and whose revenue is top end has a “window” unless it’s dumb enough to make moves intended just for a short term window (as in, what you’re suggesting). The team will have some work ahead of it and will need to be prepared to rework the roster when the time comes, but that isn’t the same as a closed window, by a long shot.
True, there are a few teams whose window will never truly be closed, just because of their financial resources, and Boston is in that group.
That said, look at how good the Red Sox are now, and what production they are getting from their core compared to their salaries. Nearly every significant player on the team is being paid a fraction of their value.
The group they’ve put together is amazingly impressive. But are you confident in their ability to essentially do it all over again in under 3 years? In order to do that, there would have to be ~10 potential impact players in the system now, and I just don’t see it.
But totally understood if you’d prefer the “non-rebuild” rebuild. It can work, especially with Boston’s money. But that (pay market value for most of their good players) is what the Yankees did for the first half of this decade, and we know how that worked out for them.