Let’s Sign Some Contracts! 2026 Edition

Dan Hamilton, Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images

If there’s something even more satisfying than spending your hard-earned money, it’s spending someone else’s money that you didn’t earn. When we’re talking baseball, unless you’re an extremely high-net-worth individual who can casually spend hundreds of millions of dollars — if this describes you, call me and we can totally hang out or something — you only have the option to spend other people’s cash. I mean, I haven’t technically asked American Express to up my credit limit to $300 million, but I’m guessing the answer would be no. Every year around this time, I make a whole piece out of it, naming seven players I think teams should attempt to sign to long-term contracts now, rather than waiting until later. There are some additional complications, of course, with a lockout likely coming after this season, but teams and players could be willing to act with more urgency to sign contracts now before all the uncertainty ahead of them.

I’ve (hopefully) chosen seven players whose possible extensions would benefit both the player and the team, as all good contracts ought to do. I’ve included the up-to-date ZiPS projections for each player, as well as the contract that ZiPS thinks each player should get, though that doesn’t necessarily mean I think the player will end up with that figure or even sign an extension.

Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds: Eight years, $280 million

ZiPS Projection – Elly De La Cruz
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR
2026 .261 .334 .453 589 100 154 30 7 23 87 62 174 40 111 4.5
2027 .262 .337 .458 587 102 154 31 6 24 89 64 165 38 113 4.7
2028 .262 .339 .460 585 103 153 31 5 25 89 66 160 34 114 4.7
2029 .259 .337 .457 584 103 151 31 5 25 89 67 156 32 113 4.7
2030 .256 .337 .452 582 103 149 31 4 25 88 69 154 29 112 4.5
2031 .253 .334 .442 582 101 147 30 4 24 87 69 152 26 108 4.2
2032 .254 .336 .444 579 101 147 30 4 24 86 69 152 25 109 4.1
2033 .254 .336 .444 558 96 142 29 4 23 82 66 147 22 110 3.9

It would not be crazy for the Reds to spend a ton of money on a big extension for their most valuable player. They did it with Joey Votto a long time ago, and that turned out to be one of the few big deals for a first baseman that actually worked out for the team that signed it. Cincinnati tried to do this with De La Cruz before last season, but it’s something worth trying again. While De La Cruz is a year closer to free agency, set for after the 2029 season, there’s also some additional risk on his side, as last year was a bit of a down year for him, at least relative to his breakout 2024 campaign. If De La Cruz doesn’t want to sign an extension, he certainly doesn’t have to do it, but this might be Cincinnati’s last, best chance to keep him through his prime years.

James Wood, Washington Nationals: Nine years, $235 million

ZiPS Projection – James Wood
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR
2026 .263 .354 .469 571 88 150 34 3 26 93 79 194 15 132 3.5
2027 .267 .360 .483 569 91 152 35 2 28 96 81 185 15 138 3.9
2028 .270 .364 .492 567 93 153 35 2 29 98 83 177 15 141 4.2
2029 .271 .367 .499 565 94 153 35 2 30 99 85 170 14 144 4.3
2030 .272 .370 .501 563 94 153 35 2 30 99 87 164 13 146 4.4
2031 .269 .369 .493 562 95 151 34 1 30 99 88 160 12 143 4.2
2032 .269 .369 .493 562 94 151 34 1 30 99 88 160 11 143 4.2
2033 .269 .369 .489 558 92 150 34 1 29 98 87 160 11 142 4.0
2034 .269 .369 .489 558 92 150 34 1 29 97 87 161 10 142 4.0

Not a lot has gone Washington’s way lately, but Wood is for real, and a classic middle-of-the-order thumper at a time when it doesn’t look like many will be available in free agency anytime soon. The Nats have been burned in the past when it comes to attempting to extend their best hitters into their free agency years, even though they’ve been serious about it, but trying to make a deal earlier in a player’s career is better if the team wants to avoid a repeat of seeing Bryce Harper and Juan Soto playing for divisional rivals. ZiPS projects Wood to finish top 10 in career home runs among all players currently active.

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Hunter Brown, Houston Astros: Seven years, $191 million

ZiPS Projection – Hunter Brown
Year W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ WAR
2026 13 6 3.06 30 28 167.7 138 57 16 55 178 136 4.1
2027 12 7 3.12 29 27 164.7 138 57 16 51 171 134 3.9
2028 12 7 3.20 28 26 163.3 139 58 17 50 166 130 3.7
2029 11 7 3.27 28 26 157.0 137 57 17 48 156 128 3.4
2030 11 7 3.31 28 26 155.0 138 57 17 48 150 126 3.2
2031 10 7 3.44 26 23 144.0 131 55 16 44 136 121 2.9
2032 9 7 3.45 23 21 133.0 122 51 15 42 123 121 2.6
2033 8 6 3.56 21 19 121.3 113 48 14 40 110 117 2.2

OK, this extension recommendation is a repeat from last year, but I, again, feel strongly that the Astros ought to lock up Hunter Brown as soon as possible. The difference is this contract projection is double the one from a year ago! Brown is as good a bet as any to be in the Cy Young race, and it’s not like the Astros can’t afford it. Now will they? Houston always seems to be willing to move on from its best starting pitchers, but it’d be nice for the team to make an exception. In projected five-year WAR, ZiPS has Brown fifth in the majors among pitchers, behind Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Logan Webb. Three of these guys won’t be available on the open market anytime soon, and the fourth (Skubal) will cost a helluva lot more than $191 million. This extension is priced to start in 2027.

Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers: Six years, $175 million

ZiPS Projection – Riley Greene
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR
2026 .268 .334 .487 557 83 149 29 3 29 98 54 168 3 125 3.1
2027 .267 .336 .488 566 85 151 29 3 30 101 57 165 3 126 3.2
2028 .268 .339 .489 567 86 152 29 3 30 101 59 160 3 127 3.3
2029 .268 .339 .489 564 86 151 29 3 30 100 59 155 3 127 3.3
2030 .264 .337 .479 553 83 146 28 2 29 97 59 150 2 124 3.0
2031 .261 .337 .470 536 80 140 27 2 27 91 59 144 2 122 2.7
2032 .258 .334 .462 515 75 133 26 2 25 87 56 139 2 119 2.4

The effect of the lack of impact bats hitting free agency can be seen in the contracts for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Kyle Tucker, which are massive numbers for hitters who aren’t Soto or Shohei Ohtani. Now, Greene isn’t quite in the class of Tucker or Vladito, but there aren’t a lot of even Greene-level outfielders likely to hit free agency in the next few years. With it looking increasingly unlikely that the Tigers will retain Skubal’s services past the end of 2026, it would be nice to lock up another big, if lesser, part of the team’s foundation.

Konnor Griffin, Pittsburgh Pirates: Eight years, $142 million

ZiPS Projection – Konnor Griffin
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR
2026 .261 .328 .398 532 101 139 25 3 14 76 35 152 32 102 3.6
2027 .266 .334 .412 553 109 147 27 3 16 84 38 148 33 107 4.3
2028 .270 .339 .424 575 117 155 29 3 18 90 41 145 34 112 4.9
2029 .271 .340 .433 601 124 163 31 3 20 97 44 144 35 114 5.4
2030 .269 .341 .430 616 129 166 32 2 21 102 47 142 35 114 5.5
2031 .271 .343 .436 624 132 169 33 2 22 104 49 139 33 116 5.8
2032 .274 .346 .444 624 134 171 33 2 23 106 49 140 32 119 6.1
2033 .276 .349 .448 623 134 172 34 2 23 107 50 140 31 121 6.2

If the projections — and the scouts — are right, signing Konnor Griffin to an extension is going to get really expensive very quickly. I think the Pirates have more of a chance of signing Griffin past his cost-controlled years than they do with Skenes, and having Griffin locked up will make a potential Skenes trade in the future less painful for Pittsburgh fans. Getting Griffin signed now also gives the Pirates the biggest incentive not to play service-time games with him (and possibly net that extra draft pick). That’s pretty important; ZiPS may be skeptical about the Pirates, but this team does have a path to the postseason in 2026. That path is most likely if Griffin breaks out and plays 150 or so games in the majors.

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies: Five years, $91 million

ZiPS Projection – Jesús Luzardo
Year W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ WAR
2026 11 9 3.99 28 28 160.3 142 71 21 49 179 111 2.6
2027 10 9 3.99 27 27 155.7 139 69 20 46 168 111 2.4
2028 10 9 4.17 26 26 153.3 140 71 20 46 160 106 2.2
2029 9 9 4.27 26 26 145.3 136 69 20 43 147 103 1.9
2030 9 9 4.42 26 26 142.7 137 70 20 42 140 100 1.7
2031 8 8 4.57 23 23 130.0 128 66 19 39 124 97 1.3

I know about Luzardo’s injury history, of course, but I think ZiPS is selling him incredibly low here. I certainly don’t envision $91 million getting the job done, but I’d be willing, in Philadelphia’s position, to go far higher. The Phillies are basically designed to win over the next few years, and Luzardo’s pending free agency is a pretty big concern. As good as Philadelphia’s rotation looks to be this year, Ranger Suarez has shipped up to Boston, and your pants would instantly burst into flames if you claimed that Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola were as good of bets as they appeared to be a year ago. The Phillies already have club options that could keep Cristopher Sánchez around through the 2030 season, and ensuring they have another strong starter under contract ought to be a priority.

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles: Five years, $61 million

ZiPS Projection – Kyle Bradish
Year W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ WAR
2026 5 4 3.51 20 20 100.0 85 39 10 32 106 119 2.0
2027 5 4 3.62 20 20 99.3 87 40 10 32 101 115 1.9
2028 6 4 3.69 22 22 109.7 98 45 12 36 108 113 1.9
2029 6 5 3.78 24 24 116.7 107 49 13 39 112 110 1.9
2030 6 5 3.97 24 24 113.3 107 50 13 38 107 105 1.7
2031 5 5 4.12 22 22 102.7 100 47 13 36 94 101 1.3

Bradish is a really hard player to value, which is why I think that it’s in the interest of both him and the Orioles to split the difference here. There’s a real chance that Bradish has a full, healthy 2026 season and emerges as a legitimate ace. Do you know the last time the Orioles had a pitcher with four WAR in a season? Not since 2007, when Erik Bedard pulled off the feat. (Corbin Burnes finished with 3.9 WAR in 2024.) But at the same time, Bradish is also a pitcher who has basically lost two seasons to injury, and there’s a real risk he never repeats his 2023 performance. So an extension here (starting in 2027) would give the Orioles a chance at having a long-term ace without paying market value for one, while giving Bradish a hedge that still amounts to generational wealth.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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sadtromboneMember since 2020
1 hour ago

I would absolutely do every single one of those if I were the team except for the EDLC deal. I think that deal buys out four years of FA, during his age 28-31 seasons (or something like it). The only way this would make sense is if you think (1) his otherworldly athleticism isn’t going to have declined precipitously for his age 28-31 years or (2) you think he’s going to suddenly cut his strikeouts without losing walks to compensate for it.

Something like that Riley Greene deal seems fairer for EDLC. Not that EDLC and Riley Greene are comparable, EDLC is better. That Riley Greene deal is a little rich in the abstract, even if I like it for the Tigers specifically.

sandwiches4everMember since 2019
1 hour ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

When you have “otherworldly” athleticism, declining isn’t as a big deal — you are starting from a higher point after all.

I also think there’s a lane where he adds a little more bulk as he ages into his 30s and leans into the power side of the equation. He certainly doesn’t have a Judge frame (no one else in baseball does), but I think he could add a bit more bulk, still be above average footspeed and maybe move to an OF corner and/or 3B.