Like a Team Possessed: It’s the Nationals’ Turn Now
In the first ever NLCS game at Nationals Park, it took Stephen Strasburg four minutes to get through the top of the first.
This was not news. This postseason, the Nationals’ pitching staff has functioned like a predator perfected by nature, having adapted to years of playoff experience as the prey, maybe sporting a few scars, maybe missing an eye, but understanding at this point that the only way to win is to tear the other team’s heart out before they even start reaching for yours.
The next inning, another crucial component of the Nationals was on display. Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty got buzzed by a Trea Turner comebacker that Kolten Wong managed to snare and, going the other way, successfully bounce-passed to Paul Goldschmidt at first. Adam Eaton punched a casual liner to left, where it hung up just enough for Marcell Ozuna to get a glove under it. It was one of the few times on the evening Ozuna looked like he knew how to use it.
Already down 2-0 in the series, it was apparent after only two batters that the Cardinals could only hope to throw themselves on the Nationals, praying a heaping mass of nine men would be enough to smother the crackling Washington lineup, since their own offense was apparently only ever four minutes away from being off the field. It would take every defensive instinct the Cardinals had to stand up against the forces guiding the Nationals, as even getting their first two outs of the game had been a pair of adventures.
The term “team of destiny” gets thrown around a little too often these days, partially because it’s deeply inaccurate. Every team has a destiny. It’s just that at the moment, the Cardinals’ seem like theirs is to be devoured by a Nationals pitching staff sporting the very mojo the Cardinals themselves once had in the postseason.
Later in the first, Flaherty managed to get Juan Soto to strike out looking with a man on, and so, for a moment, St. Louis had held back the tide. With eight innings left to play.
First Cardinals hit
Game 1: 27th hitter of game
Game 2: 21st hitter of game
Game 3: 4th hitter of game— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) October 15, 2019
But the undeniable energy coming off the Nationals would remain for the rest of the game, small moments becoming bigger ones, and the Cardinals’ occasional successes being erased by great plays by Washington or good luck near them: Ozuna hit a double off Strasburg in the second to give the Cardinals their third entire hit against a Nationals starter this postseason, and then TOOTBLAN’d himself right off the bases on a fielder’s choice.
Through the game’s early stages, Washington proceeded with what felt like a blessing from the gods: Rendon made an MVP-like play again in the third, spearing a Paul DeJong grounder with a move that confirmed the Cardinals were just hitting into a brick wall, and Strasburg kept his foot on the Cardinals’ collective neck from the mound, striking out 12 hitters over seven frames.
It was an interminable two innings before the Nationals finally broke through. Adam Eaton singled in Victor Robles to make it a 1-0 game. Then, the Nationals scored their 20th, 21st, and 22nd runs with two outs in the NLCS (they boast 34). A sinking liner off the bat of Rendon went in and out of Ozuna’s glove in left and allowed Adam Eaton to score from first; Howie Kendrick knocked in a pair of runs with a double. Kendrick would knock in another one in the fifth with a gap-splitting double that was so hot, Ozuna couldn’t even pick it up on his first try. This is the same Howie Kendrick who seemingly couldn’t hit or catch the baseball before his game-winning grand slam in the NLDS against a 106-win opponent. Ryan Zimmerman and his “Last Original Nat” narrative knocked Kendrick in moments later.
All of this, again, with two outs.
It was 6-0 at this point, as good a time as any to sit back and consider just what in the hell we’re looking at.
Years ago, the Cubs were darlings. There were some hold-outs among us, sure, but watching them ascend to the 2016 World Series and win it, kicking in baseball’s longest-locked door, was more than a baseball moment, it was a cultural moment, and at least a little bit, in that way, we all got to enjoy it. On their way to the throne, the Cubs had to get through an “even-year” Giants team, a squad infamous for its ability to find heroes in the bench bats, in the mid-season throw-ins, in the dust bunnies under the clubhouse couch, and come out on top despite the odds being against them in every postseason during which there was an even number on the calendar since 2010. The Giants had cruised to three non-consecutive World Series titles with the help of players like Cody Ross, Conor Gillaspie, and Juan Uribe, breaking the hearts of fans left screaming to the heavens that it wasn’t supposed to be this way.
In the past decade, the Cardinals, too, have garnered a similar reputation, though their ability to magic their way to a title wasn’t limited to any particular year. It’s called Cardinals Devil Magic, and it’s the term used to describe the familiar trauma teams like the 2012 Nationals experienced when Cardinals background characters like Daniel Descalso and Pete Kozma ended their season.
And so it’s easy to sense a change here in 2019, as the Nationals cut through the Cardinals like a hot knife through a literal bird, but a familiar one; once again, we have a team seeking a trophy after several miserable chances to claim it, and having to go through a postseason mainstay like the Cardinals to do so, while every fan is just waiting for the moment it will all collapse. But here we are watching Game 3 of the NLCS with far less drama for the Nationals and far more good hops and hanging liners in their favor, as well as unfiltered dominance (the Nationals turned that 6-0 lead into an easy 8-1 victory). Who knows what they did to get on the right side of fate, but whatever algorithm got them there, there are 29 other teams that would have paid dearly for it — and a couple that tried to.
The old ways are dying out: First the even-year Giants in 2016, and now, quite likely, Cardinals Devil Magic that was so alive just days ago. Perhaps the Nationals will finish this off at home in Game 4, and, with no Giants or Dodgers or Cardinals to speak of, they can present us with a fresh new World Series match-up of the Nationals and the… uh, Yankees or Astros.
Well. Sometimes you don’t need fate, when you’re math’s good enough.
There are people rooting against the Nationals now, but even they must wonder if their efforts are fruitless. This team has been beaten too many times to not know how to win. And one day, in the next few years, it could be the Nationals who are the scourge of playoff baseball, the uniforms we’re sick of seeing, the faces we’re tired of watching smile. You only get to be the darling once; then you’re boring.
The Nationals have a tall task in front of them, regardless of which American League team makes the World Series, but should they get there and finally win it all, the Cardinals would be the first to tell them: When it happens the first time, it’s magic.
Every time after, it’s the devil.
Justin has contributed to FanGraphs and is a contributor to Baseball Prospectus. He is known in his family for jamming free hot dogs in his pockets during an off-season tour of Veterans Stadium and eating them on the car ride home.
And if they win tonight, they’ll get a little bit of extra rest so that they can run those same few pitchers out there in the WS over and over again.
I sure hope they’re the team of destiny…sure would be a lot more fun than the Yankees or Astros winning.
As an eternal pessimist, I will always be concerned for teams that sweep through the CS getting cold while the teams in the other league goes the distance. I hope for their sake that they don’t suffer the same fate as the ’07 Rockies and the ’15 Mets.
It would be interesting especially if the Yankees/Astros go 7 to see an article on that and which way historically has been better.
The last FIVE teams to sweep the LCS went on to lose the World Series. I think that’s just a fluke, and not indicative of anything going forward, but I can see how a pessimist like Moltar thinks there may be something to it, b/c the streak IS pretty weird.
Only 1 team that swept in the LCS best of 7 won the World Series. 1995 Atlanta Braves. 7 teams that swept lost. 3 got swept themselves. Only the 2014 KC Royals got close but got madbummed.
when your starters go 7 innings, you aren’t going to have a lot of relief innings. So far 5.2 in the entire series. Doo with 2.1, Hudson, Rainey, and Rodney with 1 each, and Corbin with 1/3.
I’ve been saying since game 2 of the dodgers series that i have a feeling that the nats are going all the way this year. The astros and yankees will batter each other to a bloody pulp, the astros will decimate their starters and the yankees will decimate their relievers, and the nats will pick up the pieces. That’d be my guess.
I like the idea of this, and I hope it happens. I just look at the staff/lineup of the Astros and do not see how the Nationals beat them. I mean, it is baseball, so it could obviously happen, but on paper it doesn’t really make a lot of sense to me. I think the Nats could beat the Yankees, and I personally think the Astros are far superior to the Yankees.
The play that I still can not believe and really symbolized the entire series was right before the Kendrick double the “wild pitch” that Flaherty threw that Yadier Molina half assed to try to stop it. I’ll admit don’t get to watch the Cards a ton, but that seemed so out of character for him.
Like other self flagellates, Molina was still punishing himself for the bat flip.
Nats have a bit of a “double curse” that they’re working against:
1) Nationals/Expos franchise has never made the World Series
2) A Washington based team hasn’t won the World Series since 1924 (the only Washington WS win).
Nats are getting scary with Eaton, Zimmerman, Kendrick, Robles getting hot/hits along with Rendon. Soto is the only one who is a little off and he seems like a guy that will be ready for the WS if they make it. Plus, after surviving Hader and Dodgers they are – rightly – not scared of pitcher or hitter left. They are not going to beat themselves, someone is going to have beat them. Judge or Altuve or Cole or Chapman is not going to scare them. This team has handled Bellinger, Flaherty, beat Buehler and crushed Kershaw (and Hader). Maybe Cole is better than this group but is anyone else really?
The only way they are getting crushed/easily beaten is if the Yankees/Astros/Cardinals (?) can really push the pitch count up high in early innings to get their middle relievers up. I don’t see that happening more than once. And, I don’t see this group tightening up. They are actually getting looser, more relaxed and better. It’s a lot of fun to watch them.
their narrative would perfectly mirror the capitals. if they win it all they will become just as beloved as that team is now. Hopefully will push the redskins further into irrelevance
This is going to mentioned a lot if the Nats advance to face the Yankees, so I might as well get it out of the way here where we’re talking about devils and magic: the plot of the Broadway musical and movie “Damn Yankees” involves a deal with the devil to beat the Yankees. The team making the deal is of course from Washington. (And the magic involves turning an old fan into a young slugger; given the results so far, I’d suggest the reporters sniff around Howie Kendrick’s locker for a whiff of brimstone.)
Can we finally retire the idea of Cardinals Devil Magic after this series? The whole notion is a byproduct of the number of times the Cards have been in the postseason – they’ve had lots of bites at the apple, so just by sheer numbers you’d expect them to have some memorable comebacks.
For example, they’ve made the postseason 13x since 2000. If we give them a 50/50 chance of winning each round, we’d expect them to win 3.25 league titles and 1.6 World Series. They’ve actually won 4 league titles and 2 World Series. Not bad, but not all that remarkable either, and certainly not as devilishly magical over that time frame as, say, the Red Sox or Giants.
But what about, say, the 2006 Cardinals team, the most mediocre champion of all time? They were lucky, for sure, beating teams with much better records to win it all. And yet it becomes less unusual when you consider that the Cards got knocked out of the playoffs by teams with worse regular-season records almost every year before that (2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, and 2005).
What about the Cards ability to win big games when they’re counted out and left for dead? Think Game 5 of the ’12 NLDS vs the Nats, or David Freese vs the Rangers, or Albert Pujols vs Brad Lidge. Clearly the Cards are outliers here, right? Not really. The Cards have played 65 playoffs games this century in which their win probability dropped below 10%. You’d expect them to win 6 or so of those games. Instead they’ve won 5. Not bad, but it’s actually fewer than the Yankees over that same time frame, and a lower percentage than lots of other teams, including the Braves, who aren’t known for their postseason triumphs.
IOW, the Cards HAVE had a number of weirdo successes in the postseason, but they’ve also had a number of weirdo failures (e.g., Matt Holliday dropping a flyball to hand an NLDS game to the Dodgers, Kolten Wong getting picked off to end a World Series game, Randy Choate throwing a ball into right field to end an NLCS game, etc.). It’s only by ignoring the failures and isolating the successes that we end up with Devil Magic.
Okay, end of screed and apologies for the long post.
Extensive set of counter points. But I thought the magic was that they make it to the postseason so frequently.
I think “Devil Magic” also refers to their supposed propensity, year after year, for developing guys “out of nowhere” who appear one day, off of no prospect lists, and suddenly are putting up a 140 OPS+ over 300 PA, or 500 PA.
Good point, David, and I agree you could make the case with guys like Tommy Pham, Ryan Ludwick, Miles Mikolas, Tommy Edman, Matt Carpenter, etc.
But again, to get there you have to ignore all the highly-touted busts the Cards have had over the years (Delvin Perez, Jimmy Journell, Blake Hawksworth, Zack Cox, or, more morbidly, Oscar Tavares). You also have to ignore how many other teams have had the same success finding diamonds in the rough (think the Dodgers with Max Muncy, Justin Turner, and Chris Taylor, or the Reds with Gennett, Suarez, Duvall, Straily, Alfredo Simon, and so on). But no one calls it Reds Devil Magic or Dodgers Devil Magic b/c those teams lack championships. Which tells me the term Devil Magic is probably more about postseason success than anything else.
“…the Cards got knocked out of the playoffs by teams with worse regular-season records almost every year before that (2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, and 2005).”
I call that the “Tony LaRussa special”. Which also includes the ´88 and ´90 A’s.
The way things are going, hinch will go with a 3 man rotation with everyone starting on 3 days rest, while boone will pull his starters either and use his bullpen a huge amount. Both will figure this will give them the best chance to win the championships series. Then whoever wins will be seriously weakened for the world series.
I’d be absolutely shocked if Hinch goes to a 3-man rotation in the ALCS.
Greinke is the pitcher who would be lined up to start 3 games (Games 1, 4, and 7), Verlander and Cole still only line up for 2 starts each in a 7-game series if they’re respectively moved up to pitch Games 5 and 6 on 3 days’ rest, and the Astros already saw a bad outing from Verlander in Game 4 of the ALDS on 3 days’ rest.
We’ll see
You really think that the Astros will decide on a plan that’s starting pitchers on short rest for 4 straight games (if the series goes to 7 games) rather than starting Urquidy in Game 4 and keeping other starters on normal rest for Games 5 through 7? It’s a dramatically different decision than what the Astros did pitching Verlander on short rest with Cole lined up to pitch Game 5 on normal rest if needed.
well with the possible(probable) rainout tomorrow-
game 4(Thursday) Greinke on regular rest
game 5(Friday) Verlander on regular rest
game 6(Saturday) bullpen game
game 7(Sunday)Cole on regular rest
bullpen game just moved from game 4 to game 6- if necessary.
Sure, that makes sense if there’s a rainout.
It’s still just moving around the timing of the 1 game in a 7-game series that would be pitched by the 4th starter. It’s not a “3-man rotation”. It doesn’t pitch any starter on short rest, much less line up multiple starters to pitch on short rest.
I’m having a hard time seeing Hinch going to a bullpen game. That just isn’t his style, and game 4 or 6 of a Championship Series is a pretty weird time to try a new style. If it were his style, he would have done it in game 4 against the Rays. But who knows at this stage?
that was a gambit to try to have it where Verlander pulls it off and the Astros win in 4, and get Cole/Verlander in games 1 and 2 of the LCS. No real cost there at all….
The costs were (a) losing the game because Verlander wasn’t ready, and (b) generally tiring Verlander for future usage.
As I commented above, Game 4 of the ALDS was a very different decision because it was only pitching one starter (Verlander) on short rest in one game (that Game 4). Cole was still available to start Game 5 on normal rest if the Rays won Game 4.
I didn’t like the decision to start Verlander on short rest, but I at least see the logic of it from Hinch’s perspective. He’s thinking that (i) Verlander on short rest is quite a bit better than Urquidy and (ii) the value of that short rest start outweighs saving Verlander to have Cole and Verlander both available for Game 5 of the ALDS on normal rest, because it isn’t likely that whichever of them comes in as a reliever will pitch very much in that Game 5.
In any case, the rainout today now means that the Astros will have to start someone else if the series goes 7 games. The Game 4 starter (Greinke, now on normal rest) would only have 2 days’ rest between that start and Game 7.
An underappreciated part of Rendon’s web gem was Ryan Zimmerman stretching further than I would’ve thought possible to snare the throw.
My NATS are in the World Series. Huzzza!