Look Upon the Dodgers and Despair
The Dodgers are a machine. They’re star-studded, of course — Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw. I almost don’t know where to stop naming Dodgers. They’re deep, too — their role players could start for most teams, and their development pipeline keeps churning out relievers and shockingly good catchers, more than any team has a right to.
This is an article about Game 3 of the Dodgers-Padres NLDS, during which Los Angeles eliminated San Diego to advance to the NLCS. Don’t worry, there will be a tick-tock of who swung at what, who caught what, and when the damage was done. But I couldn’t stop thinking of a very old poem when I was watching the Dodgers, and honestly, that poem has more drama in it than this game did.
Percy Bysshe Shelley’s Ozymandias is, in theory, about hubris. Heck, it’s about hubris in practice, too. As every high school English teacher in the world can tell you, the imagery of an old, decrepit statue proclaiming its greatness even as it slowly crumbles into nothingness is a lesson in humility — you might think you’re great, but time wounds all heels. Soon enough, it will all be in the past.
Someday, that will be true of the Dodgers. Bellinger and Betts will get old and retire. Kershaw will be an old-timer who shows up at the stadium once a year for a celebration of his career. Julio Urías or Dustin May might leave the team; the Chris Taylors and Max Muncys will stop panning out quite so well.
As of yet, however, the Dodgers haven’t declined. They’re at the peak of their powers, Ozymandias in his own time. They towered over the Padres, made them look small. Baseball isn’t the kind of sport where you can dominate your opponent; on any given night, the margin separating victory and defeat is small and largely made of random chance, whether a ball eludes a glove or a bat misses the sweet spot by a fraction of an inch. And yet, the Dodgers just seemed better, like San Diego was accomplishing something merely by keeping even.
The onslaught started in the second with a Will Smith double — second and third, no one out. Adrian Morejon and the Padres rose to the occasion; one run scored on a grounder to second, but Joc Pederson and Taylor struck out to end the threat. The Padres even took the lead! Adam Kolarek, one of the endless parade of above-average Dodgers relievers, didn’t have his best stuff last night; Dave Roberts compounded things by intentionally walking the bases full before Kolarek walked in a run. Trent Grisham followed with a run-scoring single to take a 2-1 lead.
You can’t fight gravity for long, though, and the Dodgers clawed inexorably back. They wore San Diego out in the third; walk, single, single, two-out intentional walk, single, single — five runs scored against Morejon and Craig Stammen before Luis Patiño entered to hurriedly shut the barn doors, the horses having already vacated the premises.
That would have been enough, because Urías was masterful — six strikeouts and only one hit in five innings of relief. But the Dodgers wouldn’t stop. Betts doubled to lead off the fourth before Smith drove him home with a single off of Tim Hill, the fourth Padres pitcher. Dan Altavilla came in to replace Hill in the fifth and promptly got ambushed — two singles and a sacrifice fly pushed the Los Angeles lead to 8-2.
While San Diego repeatedly went down in order (they did so in the third, fourth, and fifth innings), the Dodgers kept the pressure on. Even when they didn’t score, they forced extra high-stress pitches, kept the carousel of baserunners moving. Smith and Bellinger reached in the sixth against Matt Strahm — Austin Adams had to come in and put out a fire. Turner, Muncy, and Smith loaded the bases against Drew Pomeranz to start the eighth, necessitating another pitching change before Garrett Richards wiggled his way out of a jam.
The game wasn’t over yet, though the prognosis for the Padres looked grim. Manny Machado scored on a balk in the sixth inning to cut the lead to 8-3, but he, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Eric Hosmer, the heart of the San Diego lineup, simply couldn’t do enough against Urías or the pitchers who followed him.
The Dodgers weren’t done, either. They ground San Diego’s bullpen to dust over the course of the game; eleven Padres pitched last night. They combined for 203 pitches. The last of them, Trevor Rosenthal, found the lineup just as destructive as his predecessors. Walk, HBP, walk, double, triple — Smith and Bellinger put a capper on the night with matching two-RBI extra-base hits to push the lead to 12-3, a mauling disguised as a baseball game.
Dylan Floro closed things out with a scoreless ninth, but the game was a foregone conclusion long before that. It was simply another Dodger highlight reel, and though Tatis and Machado were bright stars this year, they looked dull compared to their opponents, an endless parade of hitters who wouldn’t be denied and pitchers San Diego couldn’t solve.
Ozymandias is about how foolish pride can look in retrospect. In a week, or two weeks, the Dodgers might resemble that crumbled statue of Ramses II, the pharaoh who inspired the poem. Even should they win the World Series, time will come for them eventually. Baseball simply isn’t built for juggernauts. The vagaries of a round ball and a round bat ensure that.
At the moment, though, the Dodgers aren’t faded. They’re at the peak of their powers, standing head and shoulders above the rest of baseball in terms of sheer dominance. Ozymandias said it best: “Look upon my works, ye mighty, and despair!” After their performance in this series, it’s hard to picture opponents looking at the Dodgers and doing anything else.
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @benclemens.
If the Dodgers are Ozymandias, then are the Yankees Dr. Manhattan?
And who are my Braves? Nite Owl? Rorschach?
You kids…back in my day, we memorized Percy Bysshe Shelley while trudging up the hill both ways in the snow and we LIKED IT.
Watchmen comic is a legitimate literary work.
Now that I think about it, the Astros are definitely Rorschach
The Astros are the Comedian.
This comment may go over the heads of people unfamiliar with nerd culture but I loved it.
Rorschach. “You’re locked in here with me!”
2020 has been a strange animal in so many ways, including the baseball season. We can’t look at head to head for the braves and dodgers because, unless I am missing something, there isn’t any. Without a doubt the Dodgers appear to be a great team, but how much of that is a product of them playing in their own little schedule bubble all year (and yes the same could be said about Atlanta). It looks to me that the dodgers have just as much reason to fear the Braves.
I guess we won’t really know until the games are played. Truthfully I will say that it seems more likely that the Dodgers may come away with the win, but as a braves fan I take hope that the braves have already faced playoff teams such as Tampa, the Yankees, Cincinnati, Miami, and Toronto this year and done fairly well.
I seriously doubt either team will fear the other. I’m looking for an exciting series.
FWIW
Strength of Schedule Rankings (ESPN):
1. Giants: .518
9. Dodgers: .508
24. Braves: .492
30. A’s: .481
Normally I’d say strength of schedule mattered, but not in 2020. The Dodgers played NONE of those same teams as atlanta, and Atlanta played none of the one the dodgers faced. SOS is pretty much useless this season. It is like both teams played in completely different leagues. Unless I am badly mistaken none of the teams from the west played any of the teams from the east. My point in the original post is that because there is no commonality you can’t truly say that the dodgers are the better team based on record alone. We can’t yet declare which team is truly stronger because of the lack of common points of reference.
There is some validity to this line of thinking. No common opponents does limit our ability to judge based on record alone. But it’s not like this season exists in a vaccum; we do have previous seasons to judge against. There is a reason everyone was hyping the Dodgers coming into the year. 2019 Dodgers (106 wins) + Mookie Betts? Yeah, that’s a dominant squad.
And it’s not like the playoffs can really clarify anything. A short series doesn’t determine who is truly better. So I think every objective measure we have puts the Dodgwrs as the top team, and the playoffs won’t change that.
I fully agree that adding Betts to an already potent team should probably favor the dodgers (which was why I admitted in my first post they probably have a slight edge). I also agree that a short season does not really prove who the overall better team is.
I just have a problem thinking that in the current situation (as the regular season was set up) that stats play as much a role in predicting the future results against a new opponent as much as they would have in the past. And I certainly take issue that either one of the teams would “despair”.
As I said before I’m looking forward to an exciting series.
Sure, I don’t think the Braves are really “despairing” playing the Dodgers. It’s still baseball; any team can win a short series. And the Braves are really good!
But every objective number we do have, incomplete as they may be, suggests the Dodgers are the better team. These numbers also coincide with the conventional wisdom before the season started.
So I think the only valid answers to the question, “Who was the best team in 2020?” would be A) Dodgers or B) 2020 was such a weird season that we can never truly know. Seriously, I don’t see how someone could objectively argue anything else. (And really, if a person’s answer is B then I don’t know why they would care that much in the first place.)
Yes, all this really reflects is how well the AL or NL did in their siloed divisions. The NL West did the best, I would presume. But there is no way to really tell if and to what extent that is because of the NL West or the AL West.
Fwiw we also have recent history. In 2019 the NL West was such a strong division that the 2nd-5th place teams (ie not the Dodgers) had an aggregate .500 record against the other two NL divisions.
The Dodgers won 106 games last year, then they added Mookie Betts.
Baseball Reference did a 162 game simulation of what the season would have been sans covid. In that model the Dodgers won 121 games.
There’s a reason virtually everyone (including all the projection systems) saw the Dodgers as the clear favorites. That doesn’t take anything away from the Braves, are who are a very good team and could certainly win the NLCS. But there is a clear top dog this season, and it ain’t the Braves.
The Braves have the ability to overcome the Dodgers depth and take this series. As a lifelong Dodgers fan this series scares me. Freeman and Acuna Jr. rival Betts and Belli.
I’m not putting as much stock into Atlanta’s pitching performance in the postseason thus far as some. The Reds and Marlins did little to strike fear in the hearts of their opponents in this truncated season. The Wildcard and Divisional series’ amplified that fact, had the Dodgers faced those teams it wouldn’t have been shocking to see the same outcomes with LA’s lineup and pitching staff shutting down both inept offenses.
Taking on the Brewers and the Padres deadly lineup should have put Doc Robert’s crew through quite a bit more than it did. Dodgers pitching, save for the 9th inning scare in Game 2 effectively demolished the vaunted Padres lineup. Hell, Machado and Tatis had 4 hits combined in the three games. Conversely, Will Smith had five hits all by his lonesome in the deciding Game 3.
That being said, this isn’t going to be an easy series for the Dodgers. It’s not 2018 when LA steamrolled Atlanta in the DS. The Braves are better, more tested and hungry to avenge that series loss.
Can’t wait for the first pitch Monday night!
We think the Padres are pretty good. But the Dodgers took 9 of 13 games from them this season, out scoring them, by my ciphering, 71-45. Yikes.
Looks can be deceiving. The season series was 6-4 going into the playoffs with a 36-23 run differential that could be chalked up almost entirely to one 11-2 game (through 8 games, the Padres were actually leading in RD). But then, in the playoffs, the Padres were playing without their two best starters. I still think the Dodgers are the better team, but a little bit of health luck and it wouldn’t have looked nearly so lopsided. I think the counterfactual is helpful in this regard. What would this series have looked liked if Buehler and Kershaw were out hurt and Lamet and Clevinger were in?
And the Dodgers played without Price all season. And they played without Nelson all season. And they *still* had enough rotation depth to be comfortable trading away Stripling.
And if they had a weaker rotation, like that of the Padres, THEY might have added Clevinger instead.
It is odd to look at what *might have been* for the Padres with changes to their rotation without also considering what *might have been* for the Dodges with similar changes.
The fact that the Padres couldn’t survive the loss of two good starters while the Dodgers have lost (through trade, FA, injury, or opt-out) 6 decent-to-good starters since last October and STILL manage to have dominant star pitchers and depth pen pieces puts the spotlight on a huge difference between the two organizations.
even as a Padres fan, this is the correct take
Here’s a starting rotation of pitchers the Dodgers lost or traded since the end of 2019
Kenta Maeda
Hyun-jin Ryu
Rich Hill
David Price
Ross Stripling
.
That’s better than the rotations of most MLB teams. It’s probably better than most playoff teams.
They lead the NL in run prevention anyway.
^^. I’m a Dodger fan super-impressed by Tatis and the sudden renovations of Myers and Hosmer; this should be a great rivalry to come, but not an equal one yet. It’s also fun to trace each team’s transaction history from the Kemp/Grandal trade through now, too, as an instructive exercise… 🙂
Ozymandias is as much about the permanence of art as it is about the impermanence of power or how foolish pride can look in retrospect. Shelley spends as much time talking about how well the sculptor did in preserving the coldness of Ozymandias as about Ozymandias himself.
It’s often lost in modern readings of the poem, but ‘the hand that mocked them and the heart that fed’ belong to the sculptor, not to Ozymandias. In fact everything we know of Ozymandias came from the sculptor! Nothing else remains of him.
Which is to say, that if the Dodgers are Ozymandias, in some distant time a traveller will tell of this blog post. It will have dead links, and no one will no who Max Muncy is, but this blog post will remain.
This gave me a really good laugh when I needed it. Thanks pal – hope one catches you when you need one too.
While many Dodgers fans still suffer from paper tiger syndrome, something feels different with Mookie. As fun as Mannywood, rookie Puig, and regular season Kershaw were, this guy is the real deal. I still dread heartbreak, but for the first time in decades there’s some swagger too.
Ah yes, that unmeasurable factor. If there is such a thing then Mookie brings it, and he brings it in spades. It is too bad that this season cannot be measured fairly against those that have preceded it for, though I am not a Dodger fan, this team could have been recognized as one of the best of all time. It will still get much deserved accolades but so much is missing that it needs to do it again next year to get those honors.
I don’t really think that’ll be the case if they win. The playoff system is just harder than usual and every surviving team are ones you’d have predicted.
If they win people will look at what they’d done before and did now and say yep, same team, same results.
I think the appropriate fictional reference here is Godzilla. It shouldn’t exist, and its motives are obscure, but we do know that it turns everything it comes across into ash.
The Padres just have too many ex-Royals.
This is also why the Rays will not win the World Series, too many ex-Padres
King of kings
I’m a Dodger fan and have been since the 1974 season. This team is really, really good. And it is truly deep and has an incredibly flexible roster.
Which makes them a regular season monster. But, the bullpen is hit and miss and flexibility doesn’t really matter in a short series.
So, even if we give them credit for all that depth and flexibility what does that make them? A 60-40 NLCS favorite and a 60-40 WS favorite if they get there?
Yes. (well, maybe 65/35) And it is unlikely that you would ever find better odds than that in a final 4 situation.
True enough! If the Marlins had won, it appeared from looking at the playoff odds that they were something like 80/20 underdogs to the Dodgers (lol). But, you know, that’s why the Marlins didn’t advance.
An advantage they have this year is that this playoff structure is much more like the regular season in terms of how it rewards the depth of roster construction, which was really on display. There’s been a lot of complaining about the insane HR counts in the AL series, but that’s happening because 3 of the 4 teams have injury-depleted pitching staffs (NYY, TBR and HOU) in a format where the entire pitching staff is necessary due to the lack of off days. Guys who would never pitch in normal postseasons are in games, and they are facing good hitters who punish them. Last year the Nationals navigated their LDS vs the Dodgers while using only like 6 total pitchers. Even a team with 3 good starters can’t do that in this format without the rest days, and it’s even more true in the LCS.
In a normal playoff format, you’d look at Braves/Dodgers and go OK, well, the Braves have 2 good SP and Wright has pitched well. So Game 4 is a bit of a problem, but otherwise they look alright. This year, you see they have no clear answer better than Tommy Milone for either Game 4 or Game 5.
The same is true on the benches, though it hasn’t played out in this postseason yet because no position player’s dealt with a major injury or been ejected. But check out the roster the Padres took to the LDS: They didn’t even bring a substitute infielder who could play SS/3B. They had 2 catchers, Mitch Moreland and Greg Garcia. The Braves had Pablo Sandoval on their LDS roster (no really, this is not a joke).
A playoff format that rewards the same roster construction decisions that the regular season does is very favorable for the Dodgers.
Yes and no. It’s still a short series, and while having a better 4-5th starter is an advantage this year, having bullpen depth might be even more important. And if the Dodgers have a weak spot relative to the Braves that is it. In the past they’d fix it by putting Maeda in the pen, but that’s not an option this year.
I still think the Dodgers will win the series, but in the past their roster flexibility allowed them to use their pitchers very creatively and aggressively. This year they’ll probably have to stick more to predetermined roles and situations.
Tommy Milone was released before the postseason to make room on the 40 man roster for Charlie Culberson. If the Braves wins the series against the Dodgers, it will be because the young starters step up, the bullpen pitches like they have this postseason, and the lineup produces like it can.
The Braves do have clear answers for Game 4 and 5, and they were added for the NLDS: Bryse Wilson and Huascar Ynoa. Wilson has a new two-seam fastball that’s been very effective in a couple of starts towards the end of the season, and Huascar would likely be used as more of an opener for a bullpen game. The Braves have tested their young pitching talent, and those are the best starting options they have at the moment. For the Braves, this season has been a trial by fire to find out whom among their young pitchers could rise up and seize the moment. The result so far? Four postseason shut-outs, and 46 out of 49 scoreless innings pitched.
The Braves bullpen has allowed just 1 run this postseason. Atlanta’s bullpen has been its secret strength this season, 4th in ERA, 9th in fWAR across MLB. You have the lefties who turned their careers around, A.J. Minter and the Death Star, Tyler Matzek. You’ve got guys who’ve closed before and who would be closers on any other team: Will Smith, Chris Martin, and Shane Greene. You have Mark Melancon closing. They have Darren O’Day, the righty sidewinder who has seemingly learned how to get lefties out this year, and has a .442 OPS allowed. Then there’s the back end, Josh Tomlin, Grant Dayton, and Jacob Webb, all guys who can give quality multiple innings and different looks. If Atlanta has the lead, they can shut you down. If they don’t, they can staunch the bleeding and stay in the game.
The Braves’ bench is shallow — they have Charlie Culberson and Pablo Sandoval for the infield, Christian Pache as an outfield defensive replacement, and Tyler Flowers as the other catcher. If worse comes to worst, Charlie Clutch has played every position but catcher and center field for the Braves, is their third catcher, and has a 2.70 career ERA. So in a blowout, he’s also part of the bullpen and is the 11th pitcher.
No good options for Game 4 or 5? That’s nothing. Try Fried and no good options for the next four days. The Braves postseason roster has been constructed to take advantage of their strengths, provide bullpen options for all situations, and allow them to stay in the game if the starter doesn’t have it. That’s what they’ve had to do all season. We’ll find out whether that’s enough to win 4 out of 7 from the Dodgers.
The Braves are good, you’re right; they had the 2nd best bullpen in the NL!
(guess who had the best one)
It’s certainly the case that the Braves have some kind of plan, but I can’t say that ‘guy with a new pitch!’ and a bullpen game are anywhere close to the top of most team’s lists (including the Braves). Fried and Anderson are legitimately quite good. Wright’s been awful and may have figured something out – but that also means that it might just be that his opponents didn’t have the opportunity to scout his changes and adjust, and now the Dodgers will be able to do so.
I will have to be honest and say that shutting out the Marlins and friends is, perhaps, not quite as impressive an achievement as it sounds. The quite poor baseball teams that got into the postseason because of the expanded format were pretty rapidly exposed as unable to keep up with the teams we expected to be there from the beginning.
My point, though, is that stuff like Ynoa, Wilson, etc are much more relevant in this postseason format than they are in the normal one. In the normal one, you could use BOTH for game 4; open the bullpen game with Ynoa, use Wilson for bulk, etc. Now you have to try and split that over two games, and whenever it fails, your bullpen will pay the price going forward (see the Padres bullpen).
The Braves are good. They’re not 80/20 underdogs or whatever the Marlins would have been in this series. It wouldn’t be a shock if they won it.
But this postseason format exposes weaknesses on teams in ways the old one didn’t, and I think it’s almost certainly true that the Braves are less likely to win this series under these rules (w/o offdays) than they would be in the normal format with the 2 travel days to rest their bullpen and bring back starters sooner in the series. Similarly, if guys suffer small injuries or the like, foul a ball off their foot, that kind of stuff, they’ll have to play through it the next day and won’t get those built-in rest days to recover or avoid re-aggravating their injury, and the options will be to either leave them in and run the risk of aggravation/diminished performance, or use a bench player. It’s the same with the bullpen: Look at the Padres, who had to bullpen early to stay in the game. Without those rest days, you eventually either have to use relievers you don’t want to use, or the guys you are using get exposed. The Padres had a darn good bullpen this year themselves; by game 3, the Dodgers had seen every one of them except Rosenthal at least once, and had seen many of them twice. It’ll be worse in a longer series.
And one team is better positioned to adapt in those situations, with a deeper roster of position players, starters and relievers.
Is that a knock on the Braves? Nah, they’re really good – they were the 2nd or 3rd best team in the NL this year (the healthy padres were probably better, but the Braves are better than the Padres team the Dodgers had to play w/o 2 starting pitchers). The Dodgers have been building for extreme depth for years, and usually have been unable to capitalize on it in the postseason due to the format; last year, they lost to a team that only used 6 pitchers in a 5 game series. That kind of stuff can’t happen this year, and it’s to their benefit.
Wright’s been bad in the majors, but it’s been a specific kind of bad: death by walks.
Was it because he was wild? Not really. In AAA in 2019, he allowed 2.8 BB/9, and had 9.3 SO/9.
But in the majors, it got bad.
2018: 9.0 BB/9. 7.5 SO/9.
2019: 5.9 BB/9. 8.2 SO/9.
2020: 5.7 BB/9. 7.1 SO/9.
Divide 2020 into July/August and September, because he moved over to the left side the pitching rubber in his September starts. And the improvement is there to see.
July/August 2020: 9.6 BB/9. 7.2 SO/9.
September 2020: 3.5 BB/9. 7.0 SO/9.
Wright has always had STUFF. For example, one two-seam fastball had 18 inches of vertical break in his start against the Marlins. That’s both a blessing and a curse. He had a ton of late movement on his pitches. He could also throw his two-seamer to the inside part of the plate to a lefty and it would end up off the plate outside for a ball. Because of that, he didn’t have command of his fastball, stress would increase, mechanics would get wobbly, and he’d beat himself.
With this adjustment, he can command his fastball inside to righties better, it keeps more of the plate before it gets there, and it gives him a wider margin for error. He had to adjust his other pitches along the way to work with that, but now it looks like he can at least be a league average starter, if not better. Will it be enough to beat the Dodgers? Who knows, but at least he won’t beat himself.
I certainly believe it’s possible Wright has figured something out. The other side of the coin, though, is that if it’s as obvious as you illustrate, the Dodgers will know that, and they are the most-patient and least-chasing team in MLB. That’s not really a matchup I’d want for my command-challenged starting pitcher. Heck, I wouldn’t want a 3.5 BB/9 starter against the Dodgers to begin with, because they will milk the walks out of that guy and have him at 100 pitches in the 5th inning.
To add to this, Wright had a problem other than the walks: he allowed a ton of hard contact. Maybe that was the result of having to throw balls right down the middle not to walk guys, but ‘filthy stuff with lots of whiffs but when guys get the bat on it, it’s crushed’ is a common profile, so i wouldnt necessarily assume that it’s only related to the walks.
Wright’s statcast expected ERA is worse than his actual ERA because of how consistently people hit the ball hard against him.
The Marlins might not have been able to punish that, but the Dodgers can.
Having watched Kyle Wright this season, and having been frustrated by his lack of performance, I can tell you that it’s mostly related to the walks. Yes, he allowed a ton of hard contact early in the season. He’d get in trouble, get slider happy, and hang a breaking ball or throw a four-seamer down the middle. He’d get into patterns where it was easy for the hitter to figure out what was coming.
Again, you have to look at the split, or if you’re looking at statcast, his rolling xwOBA. From September 8, it went from .429, up as high as .518, and from there it would drop in half. By September 25, it would drop as low as .224 and end up at .274. His rolling average exit velocity dropped from 91.4 mph to 85.8. His hard hit percentage dropped from 48% down to 34%.
This is not an illusory increase in performance. Wright’s last three starts were against the Nationals, the Mets, and the Red Sox, all teams with patient, powerful hitters, and he delivered quality starts against each. That’s what I expect him to deliver against the Dodgers.
That’s true. The consecutive games does help them.
They towered over the Padres, made them look small. Baseball isn’t the kind of sport where you can dominate your opponent; on any given night, the margin separating victory and defeat is small and largely made of random chance, whether a ball eludes a glove or a bat misses the sweet spot by a fraction of an inch. https://www.upsers.app/
You do Cistulli proud here! Excellent writing Ben. I will be nominating this for saber article of the year.
The best episode of Breaking Bad.