Los Angeles Angels Top 28 Prospects

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Los Angeles Angels. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the third year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but I use that as a rule of thumb.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here.
| Rk | Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan O’Hoppe | 23.3 | MLB | C | 2024 | 50 |
| 2 | Zach Neto | 22.4 | MLB | SS | 2023 | 50 |
| 3 | Edgar Quero | 20.2 | AA | C | 2025 | 50 |
| 4 | Nelson Rada | 17.8 | A | CF | 2027 | 45 |
| 5 | Jack Kochanowicz | 22.5 | AA | SP | 2024 | 40+ |
| 6 | José Soriano | 24.7 | MLB | SIRP | 2023 | 40+ |
| 7 | Jake Madden | 21.5 | A | SP | 2026 | 40+ |
| 8 | Coleman Crow | 22.5 | AA | SP | 2024 | 40 |
| 9 | Ky Bush | 23.6 | AA | SP | 2025 | 40 |
| 10 | Walbert Urena | 19.4 | A | SIRP | 2026 | 40 |
| 11 | Caden Dana | 19.5 | A+ | SP | 2025 | 40 |
| 12 | Sam Bachman | 23.7 | MLB | SIRP | 2023 | 40 |
| 13 | Ben Joyce | 22.7 | MLB | SIRP | 2023 | 40 |
| 14 | Jorge Ruiz | 19.0 | A | LF | 2026 | 40 |
| 15 | Jadiel Sanchez | 22.1 | A | RF | 2025 | 40 |
| 16 | Chase Silseth | 23.1 | MLB | MIRP | 2023 | 40 |
| 17 | Kolton Ingram | 26.6 | AA | SIRP | 2023 | 40 |
| 18 | Mason Albright | 20.6 | A+ | SP | 2026 | 40 |
| 19 | Kyren Paris | 21.6 | AA | SS | 2024 | 40 |
| 20 | Denzer Guzman | 19.4 | A | SS | 2026 | 40 |
| 21 | Davis Daniel | 26.0 | AAA | SIRP | 2023 | 40 |
| 22 | Capri Ortiz | 18.2 | R | SS | 2027 | 35+ |
| 23 | Keythel Key | 19.7 | R | SP | 2027 | 35+ |
| 24 | Werner Blakely | 21.3 | A+ | 3B | 2025 | 35+ |
| 25 | Landon Marceaux | 23.7 | AA | SP | 2025 | 35+ |
| 26 | Kelvin Caceres | 23.4 | AA | SIRP | 2024 | 35+ |
| 27 | Mo Hanley | 23.9 | A | SIRP | 2026 | 35+ |
| 28 | Jordyn Adams | 23.7 | AAA | CF | 2023 | 35+ |
Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.
The 2021 Arms
Brett Kerry, RHP
Luke Murphy, RHP
Eric Torres, LHP
Ryan Costeiu, RHP
Nick Jones, LHP
Braden Olthoff, RHP
Andrew Peters, RHP
Brandon Dufault, RHP
Mason Erla, RHP
We’re now two years removed from the 2021 draft that saw the Angels mostly target fast-moving college pitchers who could help them win during the short window where they still had both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. We’re in Ohtani’s contract year now, so how is this going? It has yielded two current members of the big league 40-man roster (Silseth and Bachman), a few other prospects ranked above, and this group. I’ve included the round the pitcher was drafted in behind their name. Kerry (5th, South Carolina) is pitching well in the Double-A rotation despite only sitting 90-92 mph. His breaking ball command is also quite good, and he’s tracking like a spot starter with 40 stuff and plus command. Murphy (4th, Vanderbilt) is pitching out of the Double-A bullpen and sitting 94 with an average slider. He’s upper-level relief depth with two average pitches. Torres (14th, Kansas State) is a soft-tossing lefty reliever who’s having upper-level success. Costeiu (7th, Arkansas) had success in 2022 with a low-90s fastball (which was down from college), an above-average changeup, and an average curveball before being shut down with an elbow issue that has lingered into 2023. Big Nick Jones (8th, Georgia Southern) reached Double-A last season but is currently at High-A, where he’s gotten his walks under control in the bullpen. Olthoff (9th, Tulane) was a one-pitch wonder with a weird delivery and a great slider. Peters (10th, South Carolina) was a durable college starter with a big frame and mid-90s arm strength, but below-average secondaries. Both Olthoff and Peters are on the IL and haven’t pitched this year. Dufault (16th, Northeastern) and Erla (17th, Michigan State) looked good early on after the draft, each sitting 93-97 mph, but Dufault is struggling to throw strikes right now and Erla’s velocity has backed up significantly.
Guys I Overevaluated
Natanael Santana, OF
Jeremiah Jackson, UTIL
D’Shawn Knowles, CF
Adrian Placencia, 2B
Arol Vera, SS
Alexander Ramirez, OF
David Calabrese, OF
Most of this group was working out five miles from my house for two years and I mistakenly thought several of them would hit. I’m endlessly fascinated by the 21-year-old Santana, who has one of the most impressive physiques in pro baseball. He is so fast for a guy his size that I wonder if any college football recruiters reading this post might want to fly in to watch him play and see if he can have some kind of Chris Weinke-like career as a linebacker or running back. He has just missed too many reps because of the pandemic and a 2022 knee injury. Jackson has above-average raw power and a 20-grade hit tool. He’s begun to play several other positions, including center field, an experiment that’s in its very early stages. He could be a piece if he takes to center. Knowles runs well enough to play center field, but his offensive performance has been way below an acceptable level for a prospect for several years now (RIP Pioneer League numbers). My biggest whiffs from this group are Placencia and Vera, who both have swings that are just far too long to be viable, something I should have seen way faster than I did. Vera has filled out considerably at this point and is barely a shortstop anymore. Placencia is still super athletic and projectable, but his arm only fits at second base. Ramirez has plus power and is striking out a ton. Calabrese I was never on all that much; aside from his speed, he was more of a model darling because of his draft day age than a scouting favorite.
Some Complex Dudes
Felix Morrobel, SS
Randy De Jesus, OF
Dario Laverde, C
Anthony Scull, OF
Manuel Cazorla, LHP
I wrapped up seeing the complex group a few nights ago. Morrobel is in the DSL, so I haven’t seen him in person. He signed for $900,000 in January and is a projectable switch-hitting shortstop with a gap-to-gap-approach at present. De Jesus, who signed for $1.2 million, is the big name in Arizona. He’s physically mature, and has strength and modest feel for the barrel. I don’t love how his hands work, as they don’t really load and just fire from a dead stop right now. It’s a tough R/R corner outfield profile. Laverde signed for $350,000. He’s a well-rounded, low-level catching prospect who has only played the position for a few years. There’s no standout tool right now, but he’s a good player to have in your system. Scull is a lefty-hitting Cuban outfielder with 50 speed. With center field probably not in the cards, he’s more of a fifth outfielder type, maybe a Jake Fraley sort of 45 if you like him and he keeps hitting. Cazorla is a projectable lefty who is sitting 88-91 mph and flashing an occasionally good curveball and changeup.
Carve Your Own Path
Kenyon Yovan, RHP
Victor Mederos, RHP
Gustavo Campero, C
Erik Martinez, RHP
Hayden Seig, RHP
This entire group was either acquired by non-traditional means or took some weird, circuitous path here. In high school, Yovan looked like he might grow up to be J.D. Davis, but instead he’s turning into Joe Savery. Yovan dealt with injuries in college at Oregon and tried just hitting for a while. He’s back to pitching and is sitting 94 mph, touching 98, and trying to find a big league slider. Mederos was a famous high schooler with mid-90s heat and a plus breaking ball, but no feel for location. He transferred from Miami to Oklahoma State (neither is especially good at developing arms) and has now been in the Angels system for a year and is still largely the same dude. Campero is a favorite of mine, an athletic 25-year-old switch-hitting catcher and outfielder who crushed 2022-23 winter ball, and is now hitting at High-A. He needs a promotion (and a lot of work on defense still). Martinez, 27, went to Cal through 2018, then pitched in Indy ball and in Mexico for four years before signing his first pro contract in the offseason. His fastball has effective rise/run movement and he has a pretty nasty two-plane sweeper. Seig, a 6-foot-5 24-year-old, was a 2021 undrafted free agent senior from St. Joe’s who somehow has a low-slot delivery that produces a downhill fastball because of his height and upright lower half. He’s currently having A-ball success as a sinker/slider reliever.
System Overview
This is not a good farm system. There’s no one reason for it, and not all of the reasons are bad. Reid Detmers is a big leaguer while a lot of players from the 2020 draft are still prospects. Kyle Bradish and others (mostly pitchers) from the 2018-20 draft classes have been traded and are in other systems. The hit rate on the toolsy athletes who the Halos gravitated toward in the draft for a while has been mixed. Brandon Marsh panned out, Jo Adell looked like he was going to but hasn’t, and Jordyn Adams, Jeremiah Jackson, and a few others have not. At the time, I thought the two-way player experiments (Erik Rivera, William Holmes) were worthwhile, but they cost meaningful draft capital and didn’t work. The players signed by the international program (and I think this is the biggest issue) are not hitting, with guys who received close to $6 million of combined bonus outlay currently hitting a collective .240 at Tri-City. The conservative, need-based approach the Angels took to the 2021 draft meant they failed to cultivate a class with real upside, as the cement was mostly dry on the pitchers they took. Those effects can be felt here.
The big league team is currently 38-32, and scouts are hitting this system hard in anticipation of the team being deadline buyers for the first time in a while. If the Angels are confident Logan O’Hoppe is their catcher of the future, they could move Edgar Quero as the centerpiece of a meaningful trade. Or maybe there’s a club out there that thinks Nelson Rada (who’s really exciting) is already good enough to carry similar weight. Other than that, Los Angeles seems likely to either make some small trades or be outbid by teams with more minor league ammunition. Is there a big fish lurking in the DSL? The Angels really spread their 2023 international bonus pool out among a lot of high-six-figure guys, and that group should be a priority for teams that might be a trade fit come July because the rest of this system is so light.
If the Angels somehow fall comfortably out of contention during the next six weeks and seek to trade Shohei Ohtani, who knows how this system will look. His looming free agency complicates the question, but Shohei is his own thing, and it’s difficult to gauge what they might get for him in return. The Scherzer/Turner trade might offer a fair recent proxy because two premium players moved in one deal, and that’s essentially what Ohtani is (not to mention the marketability, handsomeness, etc.). You can bet that the centerpiece(s) of such a deal would either be plug-and-play big leaguers or the top prospect(s) on this list as soon as it’s consummated.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Would they be better off over the next 5 years if they trade Trout and Ohtani?
If you can’t build a winner around them (granted they’ve been solid this year) what makes you think they can build one without them?
Definitely if they trade Ohtani; they’d get a major haul back, and he’s not re-signing with the Angels. But they won’t do it, so it’s probably irrelevant.
I don’t know about Trout. They’d be better off if they ate most of his salary to get a ton of big-time prospects back, but if they’re just dumping his salary they would just be a worse team without anything to show for it. But he has a no-trade clause, so again, I don’t think this is happening.
Michael Harris for Trout, who says no?
The Braves. It’s tempting but although Harris isn’t as good as he was in 2022, he’s also not as bad as he has been so far in 2023.
Harris is heating up too. But I agree ATL says no. Unless the Angels take a ton of his salary.
Pfft. The only reason the Braves turn this down is if they think the number of years left on Trout’s deal is _literally_ too much.
Trout enjoys golfing and going to Eagles games in October way too much to sign off on a trade to a contender
sports media loves bashing Damian Lillard for not forcing a trade out of Portland. Yet they never mention the fact Trout is seemingly content to finish his career with just 3 playoff games played
Trout is Angels baseball. Ohtani might be another story; however, you don’t want to be the one that trades the new Babe Ruth…
If the Angels do trade Ohtani Arte Moreno should be forced to stage a production of No No Nanette
The Red Sox fans wouldn’t care at all if the team traded two months of Babe Ruth. Contracts back then were obviously different from what they are now. The Angels could always offer him the biggest contract this offseason if they want him back.
To me Angels have a middle of road farm, i know eric and many others disagree. The reason being is that I’m higher on the top 3 guys than Eric, I think Neto is a 70 defensively which is where the disagreement on him is. He is very smooth with good hands and arm. To me I’d put a 55 FV on him.
Both O’Hoppe and Quero personally are 60s for me, O’Hoppe is good enough to stick at catcher and to me the power grade is 2 grades low, I don’t understand the 40 game power projection. He’s going to be a stud hitter.
With Quero I’d put a future 60 hit on him, the guy will make a lot of contact and we aren’t talking low quality nicky lopez type contact.
Regardless of what happens with Shohei they’ll have decisions to make with Quero/O’hoppe/Thaiss all look like they’ll be quality big leaguers. You could keep 2 at catcher and have them switch off at dh if shohei does indeed leave and maybe move 1 to first as walsh ain’t looking great. If shohei does stay the trade route is probably a necessity with at least 1 of them. They could also obviously trade 1/2 of them if shohei does leave too for like starting help or something impactful
To me the problem with the Angels is that their prospects seem to have a way higher miss rate than other farms. Even back when their system was hyped with Adell and Marsh they then just crater in the majors. Sure, there’s always attrition with good prospects but not to the point of where the Angels are. I’m just always more skeptical of them because I don’t trust their player developmental staff.
Agree with this. Obviously there’s a degree of randomness in terms of prospect success rate, but it can’t be a coincidence that they haven’t been able to develop even a league average player since Trout. It’s at a point where you almost have to take the under on any Angels prospect
The metrics seem to think Neto is league average at shortstop, and considering that the Angels don’t have any other options there, I think that’s where he stays. Sure, it would be better if they had Matt McLain to play shortstop and could put Neto at second base but they don’t. No need to rock the boat if he can handle it.
I don’t think they have to worry about having too much of a logjam at catcher. Quero’s power has evaporated in AA, Thaiss wasn’t good until this year and is still a little rough as a receiver, and O’Hoppe has bad pop times and is now hurt. Chances are that at least one of them is not going to be viable at catcher for one reason or another, and you need two catchers today anyway.
That said, if they did want to trade someone, Quero is the obvious pick because they have so many catchers, O’Hoppe is hurt, and Thaiss is their current starter. But I also wouldn’t be trading from the farm system unless it’s for a guy with several years of team control because Ohtani is probably going to go and they won’t be in “win-now” mode to the same degree anymore.
I think the key mistake the Angels made taking all those pitchers wasn’t that they took only pitchers, it’s that the ones they picked were not good. That said, I’m not a fan of people who say “why didn’t my team select Aaron Judge in the Top 10” because nobody thought he was going to be one of the Top 5 position players in baseball; that’s just hindsight bias. You have to compare guys to those picked near them. So let’s look at the next few pitchers taken after each of the Angels’ picks that year.
If the Angels had taken Kumar Rocker instead of Bachman like everyone expected them to, he’d be hurt but he wouldn’t be an obvious bust like Bachman was (or they could have taken Painter, who looks great).
The pitchers taken immediately after Ky Bush were mostly underslot-type picks like Calvin Ziegler, Matt Mikulski, Russell Smith, and Andrew Abbott. But it seems like they would have been way better off if they had picked Abbott, in about the same place if they picked Ziegler or Smith, and worse off if they had picked Mikulski.
The Angels picked Landon Marceaux in Round 3; the guys drafted after him were Dominic Hamel, Michael Morales, and Mason Black. Dominic Hamel and Mason Black are currently striking out a ton of guys at AA, and Michael Morales is pitching decently in A ball. They would have been better off with any of those guys, but especially Hamel (who was picked immediately after them).
They picked Luke Murphy in Round 4. The pitchers picked just after them were Dustin Saenz (who is moving really slowly, but could be a back end guy) and Bryce Miller, who is among the top 5 rookie starting pitchers in the league right now (he’s pitching like a #3 starter already). They would have been better off with both instead of Murphy, but especially Miller.
In Round 5, the Angels grabbed Brett Kerry. The pitchers immediately after them were Christian Scott (who I think was an underslot pick) and Griff McGarry. McGarry is currently an FV50 prospect who is shredding AA; Christian Scott is shredding high-A as an old-for-the-level starter, and although he probably won’t be more than a back end guy or reliever he might be a real major leaguer; and Brett Kerry is doing okay at AA as an old-for-the-level guy but not fantastic. They probably would be in the same spot if they had picked Scott, and way, way better if they had picked McGarry.
That’s five pitchers, and in each case there was a pitcher picked 1-5 slots after them who looks like they could be a real, live major league starter of some kind and in some cases there are even two. They didn’t get the best guy out of that range even once. and in some cases they whiffed on multiple other guys.
I find it incredibly difficult to play the “what if team x had drafted this prospect instead of y” because everyone’s developmental journey is likely pretty varied across organizations whether that’s due to effectiveness and/or style. Like who’s to say if Tampa rather than LAA had drafted “default underperforming prospect” they wouldn’t have coaxed a 2 win SP out of him, etc.
I’m not really convinced that any team could have turned Bachman into a two-win starting pitcher, much less the guys picked in rounds 3-5. But the implication of your argument, if we take it far enough, is that it doesn’t matter who the Angels picked, because there are so many teams who are just way better at pitcher development than they are. If that’s the case, they might as well just pack up and go home.
If that is the case, if we take the implication of your argument far enough, it doesn’t matter who drafts said prospect since the outcome is always the same.
I’m not saying that’s exactly correct, because obviously it is not. But I’d wager that the differences in pro development are close enough that it is dwarfed by the differences in scouting.
You bring up an interesting point that I’d definitely be most curious to hear Eric or someone close to the situation’s thoughts w/r/t to how close the gap is in either arena.
I guess i’m just hesitant to place all the blame on the shoulders of the scouting dept via a redraft game rather than sharing some of it with dev but to your point, I have no idea, which is why I phrased it as “I find it incredibly difficult” to play that game with any certainty
I think there is one more issue to consider. Part of the reason why it seems like development is such a big deal is because evaluation of players has gotten so much more uniform. This is something that gets talked about a lot in Eric’s and Kiley’s work, how certain ideas have proliferated throughout the industry.
And you can even see this in terms of personnel. You can see how the things that the Astros (under Luhnow), the Guardians (under Shapiro and Antonetti), the Rays (under Friedman), the A’s (under Alderson), the Yankees (under Cashman), and the Red Sox (under Epstein) have now become standard throughout all of baseball. And you can see all of this because virtually everyone running those teams has a considerable amount of experience working in one of those front office “trees”.
The result is that there’s been this huge convergence in what sorts of players teams like. So even small edges in player development can take on outside significance when everyone is looking for the same players.
The problem is that this isn’t really all that relevant to the Angels (or the Rockies, or the Royals, or the White Sox) because they are not looking for the same sorts of players as everyone else. Sometimes this is a good thing–the Cardinals and Padres have had a lot of success moving the opposite direction of the industry. But for the Angels, it clearly hasn’t been.
“..differences in pro-development are close enough that it is dwarfed by the differences in scouting.”
I think this is correct. There is developing going on, and things happen, but you either took the right players… or you didn’t. I’ll bet you teams and counting depts. would agree with this.
If you get a high pick, you gotta draft the right guys, guys who can actually do the job. The Rays win a lot because they make a LOT of good decisions.
Kinda confused by the last line of Zach Neto’s report–in particular, where EL says that Neto’s had “a chase-prone approach so far”. Baseball Savant has Neto with a 78th percentile chase rate (i.e. lower than 78% of players). Curious as to what EL was looking at.
Wondering if this was just a product of a rush to get these finished, and as a result he just peeked at Neto’s FG home page and saw the BB%–which seems to just be somewhat anomolous (consider that through ~20g Neto was around ~95th percentile (lowest) chase rate and yet was sitting at 0-2% BB).
Bottom line is that Id be super interested to hear if there is actually data out there that disputes the figure on Savant.
Edit: Also strikes me as a bit strange to hang a 50 on a guy who has been worth 1.2 fWAR/1.9 rWAR over his first 200PA after damn near jumping straight from the big south conference to the majors, especially when there’s no aspect of his production that is flukey
Used to be more extreme a few weeks ago, but Neto has the same number of BB as HBP. Much of HBP is random, but seeing longer counts does mean you’re more likely to get a HBP, so the not chasing might be showing up a little bit there.
I don’t think he change the FV, if he made that evaluation before the season started. I agree though, I think he’s perhaps a 6 bat and a 6 glove
Let’s be real, the Angels are not trading Ohtani. They have a winning record and a 37% chance to make the playoffs today, so it’s going to be unlikely that they will be out of it at the trade deadline. Moreno still thinks they can re-sign him despite all the losing too, so even if they were further out of it I’m not convinced they would trade him even then. So as interesting as it would be to speculate about them improving their farm system this way, I think it is extremely unlikely.
That said, I would tend to agree that since the modal scenario is the Angels missing the playoffs, it is very unlikely that he re-signs with them. Other teams will offer him enormous sums of money and have better playoff histories.
maybe I am just a normie who doesn’t understand things well enough (and I’m also an Angels fan with undeserved optimism), but I just don’t understand why Moreno would decide *not* to sell the team if they’re not going to re-sign Ohtani, I understand it’s ultimately up to Ohtani whether to re-sign or not, but it seems like a dumb business decision to flirt with selling only to keep a probably less lucrative franchise once all the foreign investment money (and the one of a kind athletic spectacle) is gone. If the Angels were not to re-sign Ohtani, wouldn’t last year have represented peak value for Moreno?
Because Moreno thinks he can re-sign Ohtani. The team has spent on big-name stars in free agency before and gotten them to come, so he thinks all he has to do is have the high bid.
But he’s wrong about this: The bidding for Ohtani is probably going to start at $450M, and if he just tries to outbid the field he will wind up with at least $550M. He may not be ready for that, and even if he is Ohtani has his own priorities. He may decide that he’d much rather earn $100M less to play for the Dodgers because he’ll get to be in the playoffs every single year.
In any case, Moreno really seems to like all the perks of being an owner. If he were to sell it, it’s not clear he could buy something else that would give him the same level of enjoyment as micromanaging a real major league baseball team.
Trade Ohtani to the Yankees for a couple of 4 star prospects
Question:
Moniak looks like he’s gotten a change of scenery boost, and that cements him as a 45 for me in this hypothetical. Adell looks like a real change of scenery candidate, and a Brandon Marsh type bump makes him a possible 50 FV.
I don’t understand the Neto FV. He was one of the best college hitters in baseball and has done nothing but hit as a pro, with no questions about his ability to play shortstop long-term.
The FV gap between Volpe (60) and Neto (50) feels far too wide. Granted, I think Volpe is a much better hitter than the one we’ve seen in 2023, but there was a general consensus in the scouting community that Volpe was not a major league shortstop. So far, Volpe has done nothing to alleviate those concerns. If anything, his play at short this year (have you seen that arm?), from both a scouting and data perspective, confirms that he will likely be moved off the position in the very near future. Peraza is ready in AAA and is undoubtedly the superior defender. That doesn’t prohibit Volpe from being a highly successful player, but it absolutely changes his profile and value moving forward.
If you gathered a bunch of high-level front office execs. and told them they would run a brand new franchise and could choose to start with Anthony Volpe or Zach Neto, I don’t see many of them going with Volpe. Maybe all that means is Volpe needs to drop a tier or two instead of Neto moving up. But I’m seeing 50 or better tool grades across the board from a true shortstop. If you combine that with his production to date, 50 FV doesn’t hold up. That type of player would clearly provide above avg WAR totals, with bankable excess value while under team control.
This season’s sample size is still quite small, so I understand not wanting to overreact. Having said that, Neto is at 1.2 fWAR on the season; extending that over 600 plate appearances gets him to 3.5-3.6 fWAR/600. Only a dozen or so shortstops produce 3.5+ fWAR in a given season. Jeremy Pena had 3.4 fWAR in ~580 PA during his rookie year. If you check out B-Ref’s version of WAR, Neto is at 1.9 rWAR. That’s 5.7 rWAR/600. Jeremy Pena last year? 4.9 rWAR. Pena had a 55 FV prior to his big league debut.
Nothing Neto has done this season has been unexpected or has defied convention. The tool grades listed here align almost perfectly with his MLB production to date.
.260 hitter
15+ homers
66th% sprint speed/ above avg home-to-first
Average defense
Put it all together, and you have a 3.5+ WAR shortstop with 6 years of team control. Now for me, I think he’s going to get even better, and I’d argue he’s a 60 FV prospect. But even if you can’t get on board with that idea, there’s too much evidence to keep him at 50. A move to 55 seems like a much better fit and he likely deserves a 25-35 spot jump on the top 100.
Was just coming here to say the same thing. No way Neto is a 50. He’s a 55 at a minimum and a 60 for me. I see him being a perineal 3-4 WAR player. He seems to be at least average or slightly above average in every facet of the game while playing a premium position.
I’d probably bump Silseth and Jordyn Adams up a bit too. What’s Silseth has done with so little professional experience is fairly impressive. I think a little more seasoning could do him good and think there’s a solid chance he’s a back-end starter with a chance to be a #3.
I think Adams is suffering a little from some prospect fatigue. I think he’s an above average defensive centerfielder and there’s still room for improvement with the bat. His plate disciple is trending in the right direction. I think he’ll ultimately settle as a 75-90 wRC+ type guy with some pop and strong defense and be a second division regular or 4th outfielder.
Perineal? So, he’s in between being a dick & an a’hole?
Sorry, couldn’t resist..
He plays like that too. Lat I checked, he never hits.
Might want to type Neto’s name into the search bar up there. 3 homers this week.
If he works on his kaggles, I think it will really strengthen his case.
I have to assume that this is supposed to mean he was a 50 before the season started? It’s odd because EL (to his immense credit!) was the high man on Neto in the draft last year, so it’s hard to believe that he’d put a 50 on him right now after what he’s done so far. He’s an easy 60 for me, and he’d go #2 overall in a redraft I think.
No mention of Jo Adell? Sure, he feels like a AAAA guy, but he’s still only 24 but not in LAA’s Top 28?
I don’t think someone who has played a full season’s worth of games would be considered a ‘prospect’ by definition. But I too wonder where he would fall at that point as a 24 year old in AAA.
Dan had an article yesterday translating Adell’s line to the majors. Without even any projections he would struggle to hold down a roster spot. I think he needs a change of scenery.
He graduated. I wouldn’t say he’s a full on Quad-A guy yet, especially since he is only 24, but he’s now in that weird “developing major leaguer” phase where he may or may not be the guy. There still is time for him to figure things out and become a solid player, and it does take players a few years to click sometimes (Jarred Kelenic, Austin Riley as examples). However, the clock is ticking.
He exhausted rookie eligibility in 2020.
the problem with the Ohtani comparison to Scherzer/Turner is that the Dodgers got an extra year of Turner at arbitration prices
Trey Cabbage isn’t even a “prospect of note?” Bummer. 80 grade name.
Where’s Arol Vera and Placencia?