Mapping Out 27 Outs for A.J. Hinch

Astros, Yankees, Game 7. This should be fun. This has been a pretty terrific ALCS already, and with a winner-take-all contest to decide it tonight, this could end up being one of the best league championship series we’ve seen in a while.

For the Yankees, the plan seems pretty obvious. CC Sabathia is going to start the game, and given how he’s pitched so far this postseason, Joe Girardi will probably ride his veteran until he gets in real trouble. And then the Astros will deal with Tommy Kahnle and Aroldis Chapman, probably for at least a couple of innings each, with David Robertson around to try and redeem his disastrous Game 6 performance if Sabathia-Kahnle-Chapman isn’t enough to get through nine innings. If anyone besides one of those four take the mound for the Yankees, it will probably be because one of the two teams turned it into an early blowout.

The Astros, though, head into a potential season finale without as much clarity.

Justin Verlander was brilliant again to force Game 7, but Hinch’s continuing lack of faith in his bullpen couldn’t have been assuaged by Brad Peacock giving up a 600-foot home run to Aaron Judge, immediately followed by Ken Giles needing 23 pitches to protect a six run lead. Chris Devenski and Will Harris‘ regular season dominance seem to have been overpowered in Hinch’s mind by their small-sample October struggles — remember that Verlander was used in relief in Game 5 of the ALDS despite Harris being warmed and ready to go — and Joe Musgrove has been asked to face just four batters the entire series.

Unless the team has a big cushion, it seems pretty clear that Hinch would prefer to stay away from most of the relievers that the team relied on through the end of September.

If I were advising Hinch, I’d try to talk him out of putting too much weight on a small handful October outings, and note that Devenski and Harris have been two of the best relievers in baseball for the last few years, and that batters put up just a .244 wOBA against Musgrove after he shifted to the bullpen. Having all three rested for a Game 7 should be a dream scenario, and I’d suggest that those three could probably be asked to get 9-15 outs between them tomorrow with a reasonable level of confidence. Struggling for a couple of outings shouldn’t invalidate what these guys have done for years.

But most likely, those three are going to sit and watch tomorrow. It’s unlikely that Hinch will find trust in those guys now, with the season on the line, when he hasn’t been willing to trust them when less was hanging in the balance. So let’s take a stab at figuring out how the Astros might get 27 outs today without using most of the arms they called relievers all season.

To start, the team has announced Charlie Morton will begin the game on the mound, as he’s the full-rest starting pitcher they have remaining. Despite lousy results in his last start, Morton’s stuff looked pretty electric, and a lot of the Yankees success off him looked like luck. But I doubt Morton is going to have a particularly long leash, because if there’s a starting pitcher you want to limit at-bats against in October, it’s probably Morton.

The first time through the order this year, Morton pitched like a legitimate ace. After that, he was more of a #5 starter, and didn’t pitch at all like a guy you’d want on the mound in an elimination game.

His career splits aren’t nearly as extreme, and you don’t want to rely too heavily on single-year splits for projecting future outcomes. In a Game 7 situation, however, you don’t really want your opponents to get too many looks at a tiring starter when you don’t have to let them, and Morton’s significant drop-off facing hitters a second and third time this year give Hinch a pretty good excuse to have an early hook. So, while Morton is Houston’s starter tonight, I wouldn’t expect him to go more than a few innings.

You let him get through the order the first time, and assuming he’s not in danger when it wraps around, keep him in for through Aaron Judge’s second at-bat. That’s 11 batters, and if he’s throwing well, nine outs. In an ideal world — assuming Morton isn’t going to go nine up and nine down, anyway — Judge would be the final out of the third inning, and the Astros could send in a fresh arm to face the L/R/L trio of Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez, and Greg Bird in the fourth inning.

Lance McCullers would probably be a natural fit for that spot, in fact, given that his curveball gives him a real weapon against left-handed batters, and he’s been significantly better against lefties than righties thus far in his career. Since his warm-up routine takes a bit more time than a traditional reliever, having him be the first guy in means he can start getting loose basically as soon as the game begins, and then they could use him as a bridge to get another 2-3 innings, depending on how well he’s throwing.

A tandem-start from Morton and McCullers probably gets you through five, and maybe through six if both pitch well. Assuming the Astros don’t blow out Sabathia early — which is more possible than the last outing might make you think — and it’s a close game, this is where we might see if Hinch trusts any of his relievers at all. Because if he’s not planning on handing a lead to Ken Giles — who has gotten hit harder than any other pitcher to appear in this postseason — then the final three innings might belong to the team’s two best starters.

With two days of rest, it’s pretty likely you’ll see Dallas Keuchel for a couple of innings tomorrow. He only threw 86 pitches in his Game 5 start, and it would be his normal throw-day anyway, so I’d presume he’ll be the team’s primary setup guy if they haven’t built a big lead. If Morton and McCullers can get through six, having Keuchel pitch the seventh and eighth would probably be Hinch’s ideal scenario.

Which brings us to the ninth. If the game is close, I would not at all be surprised to see Justin Verlander brought in for the save.

Yes, on zero days rest. Clayton Kershaw did this last year, throwing 111 pitches in NLDS Game 4, then coming back in Game 5 to get the final two outs and close out the series. Randy Johnson famously did this in the 2001 World Series, getting the win in Game 6 as a starter and the win in Game 7 as a reliever. The Yankees have had no answer for Verlander in this series, and given how shaky Giles has been, I would be surprised if Hinch let him give up a small lead while Verlander watched. His postgame answer last night certainly didn’t rule Verlander out.

Hinch’s answer: https://t.co/GxWz7UOsqQ pic.twitter.com/jFoUH1lf9U

— Alyson Footer (@alysonfooter) October 21, 2017

Every pitcher on the staff. Justin Verlander is on the staff. Obviously, they’d rather get a big lead and save both Verlander and Keuchel for World Series starts, but if Hinch feels the season is on the brink, I wouldn’t be surprised if Keuchel and Verlander was the team’s primary late-inning plan.

Getting 27 outs from those four starters isn’t out of the question, and the team would still have Collin McHugh as a long-man option in case the game went to extra innings, or have him lined up as a rested Game 1 starter if the plan worked and they got to the World Series.

Of course, this is the if-things-go-well plan, and things usually don’t work out quite this cleanly. It’s quite possible that Morton gets in trouble in the first inning, and the Astros could be forced to go to someone like Devenski, Harris, or Musgrove early to squash an early rally. At that point, Keuchel probably comes in even earlier, and perhaps goes more than just a couple of innings. The Astros could end up using a bunch of arms tomorrow, even if they don’t want to.

But if I had to guess, I’d bet that Hinch’s preferred plan for Game 7 would be to lean on his four best starting pitchers, bypassing the bullpen entirely. Morton for 3, McCullers for 3, Keuchel for 2, and Verlander for the last inning. Don’t be too shocked if that’s the foursome the Astros throw at the Yankees to try and put this series away.

Either that, or light Sabathia up early. That would work too.