Marc Hulet Prospects Chat – 8/23/2013

: I’m all set up on the back deck of my house so we’ll get started in about 10-15 minutes…

Comment From zack
Who should the Mariners build around: Smoak or Montero?

: Of those two players, I’d lean more towards Smoak but I’m not sure if either player is a guy you’d want to build your club around… I’d wait and see if Franklin or Miller can be that guy… or some dude named Zunino, when he’s healthy.

Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
What do you think of Zimmer, Syndergaard, and Stephenson? Is there a standout of the pack?

: All 3 are pretty impressive… I ranked all three of them in July: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-2013-mid-season-top-50-prospects/

Comment From Andrew
Do you think Avisail Garcia will live up to the “Little Miggy” nickname? Thanks.

: I see Garcia as a solid big league regular but not a star player… so, no not really.

Comment From Billy
George Springer is obviously having an incredible season but the general opinion of prospect experts seems to be to take him with a grain of salt because of the high strikeout totals. However, in AAA his K% is down to 24.3% (only 226 PA but K% stabilizes quickly) which is significantly improved from >30% early on. Is there any hope that he corrals his Ks and becomes a superstar?

: Yeah the Ks are an issue but he doesn’t enough things well that it doesn’t really matter all that much — as long as he keeps threatening to hit 30 HR, steal 30 bases and walk a bunch… the average probably won’t be great in the majors but that’s OK… he can still be a star. I really like the adjustments he’s made…

Comment From Prich
Coffee of choice this morning?

: Coffee is always the choice in the morning — I grind my own and it gets delivered regularly from Costa Rica — a Christmas present that keeps on giving.

Comment From Mike
Have you seen BOS Henry Owens lately? You wrote in 2012 that he needed some improvement. Is he a 3/4 starter?

: I did see him not that long ago and I would up my projection to 2/3… He’s making adjustments/improvements quicker than I thought he would.

Comment From Guest
Bigger 2014 Ottoneu Impact: Taillon or Bradley (or neither, I guess)

: Bradley, I think.

Comment From Andrew
Who provides the best combination of potential production and opportunity to start 2014 – Jake Marisnick, Michael Choice, or Jackie Bradley? Thanks.

: I’d say potentially Bradley — especially if Ellsbury leaves via free agency… Marisnick is the big tease, though. Could end up similar to Colby Rasmus. Not a huge believer in Choice.

Comment From Daryl
Is Onelki Garcia destined for the pen or will LA move him back into the rotation?

: I haven’t seen him in 2013 or spoken to anyone about him so I don’t know if he’s managed to develop a third pitch or not. If he has a change, then he could stick in the rotation but I have a feeling he’s destined for high-leverage relief work. I’ll known more when I run out the Dodgers Top 15 prospects this winter.

Comment From Andrew
Better long-term stash – Danny Hultzen or Robert Stephenson? Thanks.

: Stephenson.

Comment From Daryl
Rumors in Cincinnati of Michael Lorenzen being added for September. He hasn’t looked all that great in AA. Surprised by such a move?

: He’s given up a fair number of hits and his control is not great right now so I’d be surprised if that decision worked out well… It seems to be a little fast and I’m not a fan of having someone playing at so many levels in one year.

Comment From Guest
What’s the scope on Mitch Nay and Matt Dean? Do either profile long-term at third base?

: Dean has been shifted to 1B and he’s not really an option at 3B unless it’s in a pinch. Nay has been decent there and looks like he’s going to be a beast on offense.

Comment From Justin
You are trying to rub it in for all of us with traditional desk jobs, aren’t you? Serious question, where do you see Javy Baez slotting in this offseason on the Top 50 lists? What he has done at TN in about 50 games is just ridiculous.

: I linked to my Top 50 above and Baez is on it, obviously… he’ll probably move up a bit (but not a ton) based on the adjustments he’s made in the past month or so.

I’ve done a lot of crappy jobs in my life and writing for FanGraphs is definitely the best one I’ve had.

Comment From Matt
Thoughts on Alex Meyer. Is he looking more likely to stick as a starter? Do you think he’ll be a good #2? ETA?

: I’m a little concerned over the health issues he’s had in 2013 but I think he’ll stick as a starter. If he comes back 100% in 2014 I could see him in the majors by the end of the year.

Comment From Marcus A.
Any chance Ji-Man Choi can hit enough to be a legitimate big league 1b?

: He might have a chance to develop into a second division guy but his numbers have also been inflated by playing in some good hitters’ leagues/parks.

Comment From Kevin
Domingo Tapia has had a disappointing season in St. Lucie due to a high walk rate. What is his ceiling/floor

: He’s young enough to figure things out but he’s looking more and more like a future reliever. If he can get the control under, er, control then he could be a closer. If not, probable set-up guy.

Comment From Marcus A.
Do you think it makes sense to send a guy down to a level he has already dominated or up to a level he might not be ready for to get him playoff reps?

: I would probably put him in a position to succeed and let him end the season on a high note.

Comment From DJ
Michael Ohlman and Josmil Pinto – either one of these gents have potential to be a starting caliber catcher?

: Ohlman has a little better chance in my opinion but both could end up in the majors as backups, at worst.

Comment From dgco
Any thoughts on Andrew Heaney?

: Very solid potential. I’m working on a piece for MLB Trade Rumors that will touch on Heaney and a number of the Marlins pitching prospects but I’m just waiting to hear back from some contacts. Should be up next week.

Comment From Guest
Where do you think Chris Owings and Matt Davidson end up? The Dbacks seem to have a crowded lineup at the moment.

: Owings is probably a little more likely to stick in Arizona but I imagine both could end up as trade bait.

Comment From Andrew
Are there any 1B prospects, or big bat/bad glove types that will probably end up at first, that could be up next year (other than Singleton)? Thanks.

: Singleton is far and away the best… maybe Max Muncy gets a taste of the majors next year… I don’t tend to a have a ton of those types of guys on my radar…

Comment From Gary
Say Something about Matt Carpenter

: He’s arguably been the best second baseman in baseball in 2013 — and certainly in the NL. He has a higher fWAR than Cano.

Comment From Guest
Far off future question — 2015 Top 5 Prospects? Correa? Mondesi? Jonathan Gray? Dahl?

: Correa is definitely the name I’d go with. He’s a monster. Byron Buxton, Clint Frazier, Albert Almora, Corey Seager are others

Comment From DJ
Phillip Ervin – intriguing stat line… intriguing prospect? Top 100 potential?

: Yes, intriguing and Top 100 is quite possible.

Comment From Sox fan
With so many Red Sox prospects making significant progress, who do you think has had the most disappointing season?

: Maybe Barnes… He was pretty highly thought of coming into 2013 and he hasn’t been terrible but he hasn’t taken a big step forward, either.

Comment From John Stamos
Any chance Tyler Glasnow strikes out every batter in the minors this year?

: 70% chance.

Comment From Curt
After his rough start at AA, Javier Baez has absolutely crushed. His walk rate continues to rise as his k rate falls back to an acceptable level. Has his play of late elevated him into top ten or top five prospect status for next year?

: I kind of mentioned this earlier… with a link to where he was just over a month ago on the mid-season Top 50 list. He’s a great example of just how volatile prospect values are…

Comment From zack
Is there any chance the Rays resuscitate Delmon Young’s career?

: That ship has sailed.

Comment From Rated Rookie
Where will Mark Appel appear in your pre-season prospect ranks? At what point in that season will he pitch for the Astros?

: A lot can change between now and then but he’ll definitely be in the Top 20 or 30… I doubt the Astros have a great sense of urgency to promote him to the majors, they want him in his prime when the team is good…

Comment From Guest
What do you think of Kolten Wong’s performance in the majors so far?

: Pretty much what I expected out of him… Solid but unspectacular.

Comment From Prich
Dude, I have to start running in your coffee circles…

: It’s ruined me for all other coffee (not that I ever turned it down)

Comment From Marcus A.
How important do you feel playing in the playoffs is for a prospect? Worth skipping a level or going back a level to experience it?

: I already touched on this but I’ll add that the value of playing in the playoffs doesn’t outweigh the negative impact of being rushed, and then ending the season with your confidence in the gutter.

Comment From Dave
Do you think any of the pitching prospects the Cubs currently have in their system can be top of the rotation guys in a few years?

: I like the arm that Dillon Maples has but he’s raw

Comment From Preston
Considering that they all only performed as league average hitters in their leagues and two of them ended their season early with injury where would you rank Austin/Heathcott/Williams going forward? Top 150?

: Yeah, I don’t know if any are Top 100 guys but Williams is the closest for me.

Comment From Guest
Let’s say Stroman gets the call this Saturday in Toronto. What specifically does he need to do to be successful?

: He needs to show consistent command/control, attack the strike zone, show three pitches and get a good plane on his pitches. I wouldn’t be a fan of promoting him at this point.

Comment From Eric
How concerned are you with Kyle Gibson’s major league struggles?

: Somewhat concerned but I didn’t see him pitch in the majors so I don’t know what the main issues were… perhaps you can help me out? Was his velo down? Was his command off?

It’s possible he was just tired — he hasn’t played a full season since 2010

Comment From Guest
Is Jeff Locke going to stabilize as an above average back of the rotation starter (3.9ERA) or a bullpen piece?

: I don’t think there is such a thing as an above-average back of the rotation starter… that would make him a mid-rotation starter. He’s a solid No. 4 starter whose probably enjoying better numbers than he really should be producing.

Comment From Prich
Not really a ‘prospect’ anymore, but does Nick Franklin have the bat and athleticism to be a productive LF or 3B? (Just thinking of ways to increase his versatility)

: I think that’s a stretch. The more I think about it, the more I think of Aaron Hill as a comp.

Comment From Tyler
Which Mariner prospect has impressed you the most in recent weeks?

: D.J. Peterson before that nasty beanball… Luiz Gohara has been impressive for his age.

Comment From Meano Eno
How excited should I be for Margot?

: He’s an ultra toolsy lottery ticket. He could be a beast but he could also very easy flame out. Be cautiously optimistic.

Comment From Preston
Have you seen Gregory Bird, and do you think he has enough power potential to go with his elite OBP skills to be an above average MLB 1B?

: He definitely has very good left-handed raw power and has the potential to be a big league first baseman but he’s also a long way away. I’ve only had a brief view of him.

Comment From Hugh
What is Holmberg’s ceiling/floor?

: 3/4 starter type. Mostly No. 4 but could have a few years where the ol’ command/control is really clicking.

Comment From Chicago Mark
Some have suggested the Cubs could take a run at Giancarlo Stanton this off season. Would it be more productive to empty the minors for him or see who pans out in the future.

: I’m not sure the supporting cast is strong enough around Stanton and one player cannot carry an offense in baseball.

Comment From Gila Mosnter
Will Danny Hultzen be starting in the bigs next season? His 28IP this year were great

: If you mean, will he be in the majors on April 1, no. If you mean, will he be in the Mariners rotation at some point in the year, then I would have to say probably, if healthy.

Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
Has Arcia’s stock fallen since he’s been in the majors? Seems like his K rate and streakiness makes his about replacement level.

: He’s just 22 and holding his own in the majors — no, his stock is not down.

Comment From Chicago Mark
Further to Stanton/Cubs question. Who of the Cubs super prospects would it take to get Stanton?

: Almora and Baez would almost certainly have to be in the deal.

Comment From Guest
Is there any hope Dean Anna or Vince Belnome get a shot in the majors?

: I doubt either is a regular big leaguer.

Comment From Rouse
Marc – how good is Jose Abreu? Will he have the impact of a Puig next year? Who do you see as the favorites to sign him?

: Abreu isn’t nearly the multi-dimensional player that Puig is. The team that gets him will likely be overpaying for the power.

Comment From Rain Dog
Eddie Butler so far in AA 4GS 20ip(limit) 18K 2BB 7H 1ER the whole may not be a starter thing seems less likely

: It slips a little further away with every solid start.

Comment From Ed
Will Bogaerts be the Red Sox SS on Opening Day 2014?

: I find it hard to believe the Sox will open the year without a veteran guy.

: I’d sign a decent player to a decent one-year deal that could be easily swept under the rug if Bogaerts forces their hand.

Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
Why do so many big hitting prospects, like Sano or Brayant project at 3B rather than at 1B. It seems like the positions have shifted and the best we have is Singleton coming up at 1B.

: The majority of first baseman start out somewhere else and end up shifting to 1B down the line. There aren’t a ton of first baseman that get draft at that position and spend their whole career there…

Comment From Jack
What are your thoughts on Jagielo and Judge? Etas?

: I like ’em both. Can’t believe New York got them both in the draft where they did. One of their best drafts in years.

Comment From Scott
Any thoughts on Stetson Allie? Buzz seems to have quieted. Would you rather have him or Joey Gallo?

: All those concerns that talent evaluators had have come to fruition.

Comment From Tim
Thoughts on Christian Bethancourt? He finally seems to have turned it around offensively

: He’s repeating the level and the numbers still are not out-of-this-world. It’s a step in the right direction but certainly not indicative of a can’t-miss, first-division starter.

Comment From Andrew
Thoughts on Alex Dickerson’s ceiling/floor? Does he have a chance to take over 1B for the Buccos next year? Thanks.

: Below average power output and so-so on-base percentage… I don’t think he’s the answer. Unless your question is, Who is the next Lyle Overbay?

Comment From Guest
so writing for fangraphs is the best “crappy” job you’ve had??

: No, not quite. I’ve also had some pretty good jobs after I went to journalism school.

Comment From Smitty
Do you see Marcus Semien making the 25-man roster next season?

: Kind of depends where the direction of the team goes… do they go into full rebuilding or try to compete?

Comment From Gila Mosnter
Will Gausman be back up starting in September? He was excellent in the bigs and in AAA. Yet the Orioles seemingly would rather roll out their bums and lose than bring him up again

: I probably wouldn’t bring him back… The innings total is pretty high already between the majors and the minors.

Comment From Scott
Which infielder do you see as least likely to be an above average regular? DeShields, Dorsyss Paulino, Eddie Rosario, Arismendy Alcantara?

: Rosario and Alcantara are the two safer bets.

Comment From Justin
Sort of surprised to see you saying that Baez will only move up a bit. Between Bogarts’ promotion and Bundy’s injury, there is two right there, but given the numbers he’s put up this year, hard to not see Baez in the top 8 at a minimum.

: Bogaerts isn’t going to exceed 130 AB so he’ll still be a rookie in 2014 and I did the mid-season list after Bundy’s injury. It’s only be just over a month since the list came out. I knew when I ranked him in July that he was a damn fine prospect and not THAT much has changed.

Comment From mr. anonymous
Does Stephenson start in AAA next season assuming all goes well for the few remaining AA games this year?

: He’s going to end the year with just a handful of starts in AA… I’d send him back there until late May or June.

Comment From David
Of Mike Olt, Josh Vitters and Kris Bryant, who is most likely to start 2014 at third? Who is the best long term solution?

: The Vitters boat has probably sailed in Chicago. I’ll go with neither to open 2014. Olt needs to make a lot of adjustments and Bryant probably needs some seasoning in the minors.

Comment From Guest
Will Dawel Lugo’s bat ever develop enough to be a starter?

: He’s only 18 and has proven himself advanced for Rookie ball so he definitely has a shot. He needs to take more pitches and, overall, be more selective.

Comment From Scott
How much more growth is there in Wilmer Flores? Where do you see his ceiling?

: He kind of reminds me of Scott Spiezio in the sense that you really want him to be a 2B where his offensive value would increase but he’s in actuality a 1B where his offensive value is below average. Flores is a second division starter at 1B but his best value might be as a super sub that can play 100 games between 1B, 2B, LF, DH

Comment From LarryA
Was Rubby DLR not ranked in your top 50 because he is not worthy or because he istn eleigible? As what does he project?

: He threw 60 innings in the majors in 2011.Fifty is the rookie cutoff. He’s a reliever, for me.

Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
What’s the deal with TDA? Previously he has been alergic to walks, now he seems to have a Joey Chestnut like hunger for them.

: SSS (small sample size)

Comment From LarryA
Do you think Montero gets a few starts on the Mets this year?

: They’d be adding him to the 40-man roster a year before they had two, which would cause them to burn an option needlessly in 2014 if they send him down to the minors at any point (including to open the year) so I’m not sure if losing the little bit of flexibility is worth it. Plus, how many more innings do you want to let him throw in 2013? He’s already more than 20 above his career high…

Comment From Zach
Do you think Stetson Allie has any chance of making it?

: It’s low

Comment From dlhubter
JP Crawford: best Phillies SS prospect since Roman Quinn?

: lol… yes

Comment From LarryA
Concerning Ichiros 4000 hits, is the Japan league roughly equivalent to AA, better, worse?

: Japan is somewhere between AAA and the Majors.

Comment From Guest
You don’t like Dean’s bat as much as Nay’s? I’m assuming it’s the BB/K rates?

: Nay just seems like a more natural hitter and makes better, more consistent contact. And he’s a year younger.

Comment From Kevin
What are your thoughts on Brandon Nimmo? Excellent BB% poor power(sub .100 ISO) and K%. Can he stay in CF long term?

: Very raw dude that’s a major long-term project and these types of guys don’t figure it out in 2-3 years. We really don’t know WHAT he is yet…

Comment From Zach
What’s going on with Robbie Erlin?

: He was overhyped because of his numbers in the low minors. His stuff was never that great.

Comment From Tony
Has Kevin Plawecki become a viable catching prospect this year?

: Yes

Comment From YankFan
Any thoughts on Greg Bird? Is he making a top 100 push or does his 1b status really hurt?

: He’s in tough for the 100 spot. I really don’t rate a lot of 1B very highly

Comment From CJ
Luiz Gohara: What is his ceiling? Does he slot into the Top 100 this offseason?

: He has a massive ceiling and is only a month older than Julio Urias, who’s gotten a lot of hype. Gohara is far more physical and has a higher ceiling.

Comment From GSon
Future is next season… Grade of these in order: Gregory Polanco, Albert Almora, George Springer and Oscar Taveras for their ML readiness.

: Taveras, Springer, Polanco, Almora.

Comment From Michael
Any thoughts on Twins prospect Miguel Sulbaran? A fringe reliever prospect?

: That seems right.

Comment From LarryA
What make Lackie Bradley Jr such a liked prospect? Yes he can walk, but doesnt he need some speed or power to be a star player?

: I’ve never called him a future star player… possibly above-average regular, yes. You’re completely ignoring his plus defense and he does have above-average speed, but he’s shown it more on defense and in his base running than in stealing bases. You don’t find a lot of guys that can hit .280-.300 with a strong on-base percentage, plus defense and the ability to nab 20 bases.

Comment From Seattle Slough
How many Pirate prospects could make the top 100 lists for 2014? 6, 7? Any of the 2013 1st rounders?

: At this point, I’d guess 5.

Comment From Jason
Chances that Matt Adams becomes a starter in the next few years?

: 75%… His numbers this year are aided by a very strong start to the year but he’s been only OK in July/Aug

Comment From LaLoosh
since Owings was brought up, what kind of MLer do you see of him?

: Decent regular for a few years, not a star.

Comment From LarryA
Doesnt Addison Russell have a great shot at being top 5 in 2015?

: I’m not as sold on him. Excellent prospect but 2014 will tell us a lot, I think.

Comment From Bobo
I recently rec’d coffee from Costa Rica as a gift. It provides a big kick in the pants compared to my regular Dunkin Donuts coffee. Buzzzzzzzzz

: I don’t get Dunkin Donuts coffee much at all (none in Canada as far as I know) but I always try to have some when I’m in the US… but, yeah, not nearly the same. Neither is the big coffee chain in Canada – Tim Hortons.

Comment From Zach
What do you think Vogelbach’s ceiling is and is there any chance he ends up playing for the Cubs in the long run (with Rizzo there)

: He’s a tough player to rank because of his overall package. He has a nice swing and could hit for average but his inability to run well will take away some of those potential hits, lowering his average. His raw power is there but he doesn’t fully tap into it… I’d love to see what he could do if he could get down to 220 lbs and stay there.

Comment From Leighton
I get my coffee from Cafe Britt in Costa Rica. I don’t grind my own though, because I am an inferior being.

: I don’t always grind. If I think it might wake the kids, I use my backup inferior stash.

Comment From Guest
I asked about Dantzler, and he was a non-prospect because he was a college guy in A-, despite his great numbers. Why wouldn’t a team move him up to AA to see if he can handle it, and establish some value?

: He’d probably be overmatched at AA.

Comment From Marcus A.
What nasty beanball? (re Peterson) What happened?

: He was hit in the face last night: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/mariners/2013/08/22/mariners-top-draft-pick-dj-peterson-leaves-game-after-being-hit-in-face-with-pitch/

Comment From Joe
Japhet Amador, HOU-1B for 2014? 6’3″, 315 lbs….um, wow!

: Uh, yeah. Makes Vogelbach sound small.

Comment From zack
Are make up issues with prospects sometimes overrated? I mean I did all sorts of really stupid stuff when I was 21.

: Yes, it does get overrated but, at the same time, few 21 year olds have access to that kind of temptations brought on by money, life on the round, women, etc.

Comment From Daniel
Mookie Betts, top 100 prospect?

: I want to say yes, but probably not, no.

Comment From BassmanUW
Vitters has actually been pretty good when healthy this season. He just hasn’t been able to stay on the field. I could see the Cubs giving him a shot in left field at the start of next season. I could also see them signing Carlos Beltran. But Vitters still will just be 24 for most of 2014. Although I do agree that the Cubs at least don’t think that Vitters can handle 3B, independent of if he can ever hit.

: small sample size.

Comment From Reggie
have u seen/heard about c. seager?

: Yes, very impressive prospect. Possible star.

Comment From Jim
Which young yankee Players should we keep an eye on? Thairo Estrada, Tyler Wade, Abi Avelino, Luis Torrens etc..

: Avelino is the best of that group, followed by Estrada. Torrens is also intriguing and a catcher.

Comment From Adam
Starlin Castro makes me sad. 🙁

: I think he makes a lot of people sad.

: Some great questions this week but I have to run. Please send any unanswered questions or coffee suggestions to my twitter feed: @marchulet