Mark Buehrle’s Perfect Imperfect Game
The fastest pitch Mark Buehrle threw Wednesday was just shy of 84 miles per hour. For Buehrle, in early April, that’s not out of the ordinary, and he’s long been a guy who’s managed to make it work in the low- to mid-80s. What was a little more out of the ordinary was everything else. Armed with his usual stuff, Buehrle struck out 11 of 30 Tampa Bay batters. He was a fastball away from completing a shutout, and Buehrle himself was taken by surprise by what he was able to do.
Only one other time in his extraordinary career has Buehrle’s strikeout total reached double digits. He whiffed a dozen Mariners all the way back in April 2005, in a game that lasted all of 99 minutes. So, this was Buehrle’s second-highest strikeout total ever. Yet he generated just a dozen swings and misses. That’s a high number, but not as high as the strikeouts would suggest. In 28 career starts, Buehrle has missed more than 12 bats. In another 14, he’s missed exactly 12 bats. Buehrle was unusually unhittable without being unusually unhittable, and the reason for that is the very reason for Buehrle’s continued success in the bigs.
Pitching coaches will say to anyone who’ll listen that the name of the game isn’t velocity. In a sense, they’re blowing smoke — velocity is hugely important. In a sense, they’re also right on — no pitch is worth anything if you can’t command it, no matter how fast it flies. Good pitching is about a blend of velocity, command, movement, and unpredictability. If you have more of the first one, you need less of the other three. If you have less of the first one, you need more of the other three. Mark Buehrle has built a career out of the other three, and on Wednesday his game was a perfection of the model.
Just for a little background, Jeff Zimmerman and Bill Petti have done work here exploring pitchers pitching to the edges. Unsurprisingly, Buehrle has been an above-average edge pitcher for as long as we have data, a few percentage points above the league mean. And here’s what Buehrle did to the Rays when he got to two strikes:
There’s absolutely nothing middle-middle. That elevated pitch in the middle of the zone was Buehrle’s last pitch of the game, and Ben Zobrist smacked it for a single. Prior to that, the execution was nearly flawless, and look at those called strikes. That’s eight called strikeouts, in one start, and all eight of those pitches were right on or just beyond a lateral edge.
And that’s exactly where Buehrle wanted those pitches to be. Let’s explore, one by one. Desmond Jennings led off and struck out looking on four pitches. After getting ahead 0-and-2, Buehrle went in on Jennings with a cutter. Then he threw a fastball to a similar spot and let it run toward the edge.
Dioner Navarro’s target barely had to move.
In the second, Sean Rodriguez struck out looking in a full count. Buehrle started with three consecutive fastballs away. Then he came back with three consecutive changeups away. The last was at the belt.
Dioner Navarro’s target barely had to move.
In the fourth, it was Zobrist’s turn to strike out looking. In a 2-and-2 count, Buehrle ran another fastball over the inner edge.
Dioner Navarro’s target barely had to move. Zobrist’s reaction is hitters against Buehrle in a nutshell.
The very next batter was Evan Longoria. Buehrle got ahead 1-and-2, and then Longoria laid off a low curve. Buehrle tried to freeze him with a fastball away:
That didn’t work, so Buehrle ran another inside fastball toward the edge:
Dioner Navarro’s target barely had to move.
No Rays struck out looking in the fifth. No Rays struck out looking in the sixth, either. And then no Rays struck out looking in the seventh. But the eighth inning saw Buehrle strike out the side, all looking, and then the ninth began with another called strikeout, making it four in a row and giving Buehrle eight for the game. Last year, in the American League, under 24% of strikeouts were called. Under 5% of plate appearances ended with a called strikeout. Buehrle ended four consecutive plate appearances with called strikeouts. It wasn’t that the Rays were being too passive in the box — it’s that Buehrle was finding those perfect spots where swings wouldn’t do much good anyway. Hitters don’t want to cover the whole zone; they want to cover the hittable parts of the zone. If you can live in the less-hittable parts of the zone, you can thrive, and that’s how Buehrle wound up with one of the best games of his career.
Oh, and, Rodriguez started off the eighth by going down on three pitches. Buehrle went away with an 0-and-2 fastball:
Dioner Navarro’s target barely had to move.
Brandon Guyer pinch-hit and went down on six pitches. A 1-and-2 fastball missed just off the outer edge, so Buehrle went in with the same pitch. The only pitch Guyer had seen in was a curve.
Dioner Navarro’s target barely had to move.
Yunel Escobar went away on five pitches. He didn’t swing once. Buehrle missed away with a 1-and-2 fastball, so he came back with the same fastball, only an inch or two or three closer to the plate:
Dioner Navarro’s target barely had to move.
At last, Jennings led off the ninth with a called strikeout on six pitches. Buehrle immediately got ahead with two offspeed strikes. A fastball missed away, then Jennings took a low curve. Jennings subsequently fouled a low fastball, so Buehrle struck Jennings out with basically the same pitch he struck him out with in the first:
Same reaction by Jennings. Same result for Buehrle. Dioner Navarro’s target barely had to move. One of the things we’ve learned or confirmed from pitch-framing research is that pitchers are more likely to get calls if they don’t make their catchers move very much. A command pitcher is easier to frame than a wild pitcher, compounding the difference in strike rates they’d already end up with. Buehrle benefited from a slightly generous strike zone, but he always has, because he’s always commanded the corners and edges pretty well. Wednesday, he commanded them even better than he’s used to, and in a role reversal, it was the Rays who got to retreat to the clubhouse and think about the big strike zone they had to fight against.
“Usually I come out and strike out two in the first inning and that’s it,” Buehrle said. “… I don’t know. You get 33 starts a year, 11 of them you’re going to feel like this, where you feel like the catcher puts up his glove and you’re going to hit it there. Then 11 of them you’re going to feel OK and 11 of them you ain’t going to know where the ball’s going. Today was one of the 11 putting the ball where I wanted to. Location-wise, movement, everything was there. One of those days.”
For Mark Buehrle, it was one of the good days. And in the end, for Mark Buehrle, it was one of the best days. 81 on the edge is better than 101 in the middle, and as much as good velocity gives a pitcher a greater margin of error, margin of error doesn’t matter if you don’t make any errors in the first place.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Awesome read.
With such an emphasis on velocity lately (understandably) it was a ton of fun watching Beuhrle last night.
It was like watching an artist paint. Great game to watch, for sure.
http://blogimages.thescore.com/djf/files/2014/04/buehrleross.jpg
credit: DJF.
This would be more accurate if the center of the canvas was left completely blank.
It is important to note, when looking at these gifs, that in general Navarro’s target barely had to move.
velocity is cooler. who would u rather watch, buerhle pitch and inning or Kelvin Herrera.
with or without factoring in potential WebGems?
I suspect I’m not the only one who would say Buehrle. There’s just something about seeing hitters repeatedly give the reaction you see from Zobrist in the gif above.
It’s almost like hitters leave a confrontation with Herrera wondering what happened, but they leave an encounter with Buehrle knowing exactly what happened and wondering how in the world they let it.
If the control artist is on, I will take him over velocity every time. Obviously flame throwers are generally better pitchers but it is cool to see a guy with ridiculous control dominate a major league lineup. I would love to see Hellickson learn that kind of control but i’m probably just dreaming.
Tim Hudson threw a beautiful game for the Giants last night too, with little velocity.
Tim Hudson sucks.
I bet you do!
Hold on, are we surprised that a pitcher does well when he gets 5 called strikes on balls, in a single game, in 2 strike counts?
Getting those calls was not a coincidence. This is how baseball works.
Sure it was.
We can find very similar PitchFX charts where the guy ends up with most of those pitches called balls, and has a shitty day. How generous an umpire feels on a particular day has a HUGE affect in games.
Find that game, where the pitcher is locating as well as Buehrle was.
Took a look at Brooksbaseball and the pitchFX charts – Beurhle received 11 called strikes on balls, and had 1 strike called a ball.
Zobrist’s reaction is because its a shitty call by the umpire. Frankly, I’d much rather have them call the game as the rules indicate than gush over catcher’s abilities to fool them.
Actually it would appear that Buehrle didn’t benefit much at all, relative to how the zone is usually called against RHB. That’s what the fuzzy box is for.
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php?&game=gid_2014_04_02_tormlb_tbamlb_1/&innings=yyyyyyyyy&month=04&day=02&year=2014
We must have different opinions on “didn’t benefit much at all”
Almost every questionable pitch there is a strike, and some clear balls are strikes.
Man, you must have been one of those people that griped about Maddux not being that great without ‘his umpires.’
I’m with Jeff, I’m seeing at least three Toronto pitches clearly inside the usually called strike zone that were called balls. I’m seeing only two the other way. It looks to me like the TB pitchers may have had a friendlier strike zone than Toronto.
Yeah, the umps aren’t calling the rulebook zone, in other equally shocking news the sun rises in the East and sets in the west. Burhle got the same zone MLB pitchers usually get, and quite logically that’s the zone he pitches to.
We should probably also consider that the plots look pretty much identical for both teams. So maybe Buehrle just did a better job of exploiting the strikezone.
Just imagine how big the strikezone would be if Buehrle were pitching to Molina.
Yes, it appears you do. You seem to have a very narrow idea of benefit. One that, frankly, only serves your desire to be right.
Buehrle’s called strikes are well within what is typically called a strike. If most of his called strikes are usually called strikes how is he benefiting (especially more than any other pitcher)?
Looking at the called strikes for Tampa pitching…At best you can point to 2 pitches that MIGHT have been strikes had Buehrle thrown them? So again, if both pitchers are being judged the same, how is Buerhle benefiting?
If you narrowly focus on hitter v. pitcher…maybe Buehrle benefits. But in the context of game when both teams face the same strike zone…it’s harder to see this ‘benefit’, especially when that strike zone is pretty darn close to what usually gets called a strike.
As Jeff says, a pitcher’s command matters a lot when it comes to framing, and Buehrle’s command was absolutely perfect last night. Go back, watch the gifs, and tell me a single one that looks like a ball to you.
Zobrist’s reaction was priceless. Like the AB ended so quickly he couldn’t quite figure out what happened, and then realized that he strike out on a <85mph fastball without even offering.
Buehrle pitched great but this game was so weird, I kept wondering if the Rays forgot how to swing or something
The speed with which he pitches is a (significant) factor here, too. Jerry Howarth, one of the Jays’ broadcasters, was reminiscing about when Buehrle and Halladay faced one another and the game was over QUICKLY. (I don’t know how well he remembers those match-ups, but it sounds about right.) Hitters were off balance and the ostensible advantage was with the pitcher.
This is especially the case for soft tossers like Buehrle and RA Dickey. They need to rely heavily on points 2-3-4, as Jeff mentioned. Fast deliveries compensate for the lack of velocity, since the hitter has less time to prepare for the next pitch. Smart hitters step out/call time a lot. Otherwise, you see a lot of Zobrist-esque looks, as batters wonder what happened, why it’s over so quickly, and why they couldn’t hit a 78 mph pitch.
Absolutely. Ray Miller, pitching coach for the Orioles during the last years of the Earl Weaver era, had t-shirts printed up for his young pitchers. The three keys to pitching success, he called them:
1) Work fast.
2) Change speeds.
3) Throw strikes.
Miller used to say that working fast not only helps pitchers get into a rhythm, but also puts batters on the defensive.
Anybody notice how much faster the Red Sox pitchers were working last year? Especially Buccholz? It’s pretty obvious that Farrell shares the same pitching philosophy as Miller.
I watched a game between Beuhrle and Carl Pavano at Target Field a few years ago. They both threw complete games and it lasted about one hour and fifty minutes. Good thing, too; it started to rain in the eighth inning.
Awesome article Jeff. Great read and insightful analysis.
Absolutely! This was one of the most informative baseball articles I have ever read. Good stuff! The links provided by others were educational as well.
How much did Buehrle’s fastball move last night?
I mean, Longoria’s reaction was like “damn, that DID go back over the inside corner”. Something I only remember seeing with Maddux.
Yeah, i’d like to know how much run those inside fastballs to righties had. The camera angle isn’t good but the movement still looks rather significant. Also note that he is on the far right side of the rubber against righties which isn’t typical for a lefty.
Needs more horse pun.
We should vote on that, everyone. Yea or neigh?
Last night was all about Buehrle, but I can tell you Blue Jays fans are becoming a big fan of how quiet Navarro is behind the plate.
I doubt he’s similarly tranquil when he realizes the pre-game buffet spread has been laid out. (yes, I went there)
Thanks Jeff.
Watching Buehrle pitch, I’m often reminded of Scott McGregor, who pitched for the Orioles from the late ’70s to the mid 80’s.
McGregor rarely topped 90mph (not sure how accurate the radar guns were back then) but when he was on, he owned the margins of the strike zone.
You could argue about–just as you could sometimes with Buehrle–whether or not all of the called strikes McGregor got were truly strikes. But when a command-type pitcher can demonstrate to an umpire repeatedly that he can “paint the black”, that pitcher will get the call more often than not.
Remember: it’s the umpire who decides just how large the “black” is. Until the day that robots take over umpiring, that’s how it will always be.
Buehrle was very good, but his K total was high mostly due to the wide K zone by home plate umpire Jim Wolfe.
The proof is in the GIFs above. Only the Rodriguez pitch is questionable to the eye. The strict pitchfx zone is incredibly small compared to the conventional strikezone at any level.
’81 on the edge is better than 101 in the middle’
This phrase deserves to be immortalized. That is some pretty deep stuff. It doesn’t come ’round that often.
Song title? Life philosophy?….something, it deserves to be something.
“Dioner Navarro’s target barely had to move.”
This refrain reads like epic poetry. Awesome.
So how much credit does Navarro deserve then for what seems like a fantastic job of pitch framing?
I don’t know if anyone can find it, but Molina had a pitch framed so perfectly, I believe when Lueke was in the game: Target on outside edge, pitcher misses over inside corner. Molina makes it look like he was set up there the whole time. Amazing.
All due credit to Buehrle, but how ’bout the Ray lineup kinda just sucked lemon that night? Buehrle knew how to keep his thumb in their eye once he was on a roll, but I doubt there is a Ray’s hitter who wouldn’t take a do over under the same circumstances.
Most teams, when faced with being nearly shutout and reaching double-digit K’s, would take a do-over.
Ha ha, no doubt.
Great Stuff! Buehrle pitching to Navarro seems like a good shot for a career year for Mark. I’ve got RA Dickey on my team, maybe I should have Buehrle as well?
Enough to have his name mentioned in the article 8 times; Buehrle, 38. That’s 17.39% of the credit*
(*caveat: small sample size)
“You get 33 starts a year”
That’s such a Buehrle Line
A shot at the rest of the rotation.
Given that Buerhle no longer attends the pregame meetings with the catcher and coaches to go over the other team’s hitters, and the catcher calls the entire game, you have to give Navarro more than 17.39% of the credit.
http://sports.nationalpost.com/2014/02/28/toronto-blue-jays-mark-buehrle-a-quirky-starter-breaks-in-a-new-catcher/
“Buehrle.” Dang it.