Mark Melancon Is Shutting Them Down

Toward the end of April, things weren’t looking so hot for Pirates relief ace Mark Melancon. His velocity was down — way down — and Pirates manager Clint Hurdle was beginning to field questions about Melancon’s job security. Fast forward to September, and it seems like ages ago that we were even discussing this in a serious matter, because Melancon is on the verge of a historic season.

It would have been hard to claim that Melancon would go on to have such a great season back in April. Hurdle’s proclamation that Melancon would remain the closer was met with derision. The Bullpen Report guys moved Melancon and the Pirates closer situation into the red for the first time on April 22. The velocity on his cutter, which in the past had averaged 92 mph or faster, was averaging 88 mph. In the days immediately after April 22, his velocity would dip into the 87 mph range. Hardly big league worthy. At the same time, Arquimedes Caminero was making a name for himself, and it seemed like only a matter of time before the guy who might just be the right-handed Aroldis Chapman would take over as the Pirates closer. Or if not him, then perhaps the dependable Tony Watson. Or maybe Jared Hughes. Either way, it looked like Melancon’s days were numbered.

With hindsight, we can see that it wasn’t really that bad. For the month, Melancon posted a 4.21 FIP and 3.66 xFIP. Are those substandard numbers for a relief pitcher? Yes. Are they the kind of numbers that should make you head for the hills? Probably not. Melancon’s velocity would slowly come back to normal — he told David Laurila last week that “it was really just fatigue” — and after that fateful April 21 outing in which he got tagged for three runs, everything has been just ducky.

Melancon got back in the saddle on April 23, and since that date he has posted a 1.22 ERA and 2.59 FIP, and has been really difficult to hit:

Mark Melancon PITCHf/x Plate Disciple Stats, 2015

Dates	IP	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%	O-Contact%	Z-Contact%	Contact%	Zone%
4/8 – 4/21	6.1	31.8%	72.7%	52.3%	71.4%	90.6%	84.8%	50.0%
4/23 – 9/22	66.1	40.1%	63.7%	50.2%	63.6%	88.5%	77.1%	42.6%

That bottom line looks a lot more like the Mark Melancon we are used to seeing. His save totals though have exploded. His 2015 total has now eclipsed his 2013-2014 combined total. He now stands at 50 for the season. Fifty saves is sort of a magic number for closers. The list of relievers who have achieved a 50-save season is a short one:

1. Eric Gagne (two times)
2. Jim Johnson (two times)
3. Mariano Rivera (two times)
4. Rod Beck
5. Dennis Eckersley
6. Trevor Hoffman
7. Craig Kimbrel
8. Randy Myers
9. Francisco Rodriguez
10. John Smoltz
11. Bobby Thigpen

That’s it, 11 relievers. Now Melancon can add his name to the list, and make it an even dozen. But that shiny number isn’t the most impressive part of his season.

If you frequent these internet pages, you may be familiar with the terms “Shutdown” and “Meltdown.” If you’re not, here is the flashcard from the FanGraphs Glossary entry:

Simple. No credit for weird outings where a pitcher entered in the sixth inning of a blowout or something. Shutdowns and meltdowns are clean, efficient, and have cool names that remind you of an Onyx song (or is that just me?). And Mark Melancon has been the king of them this season.

Thus far, Melancon has 47 shutdowns against just two meltdowns. If that sounds good, it’s because it is. The glossary lists an average season as 20 SDs against eight MDs. Melancon has far exceeded that. His 47 SDs are easily the most in the majors this season — Watson is second at 41. And no qualified reliever has fewer than two meltdowns — Melancon shares his league-leading mark with Joe Blanton, Christian Bergman and Josh Collmenter. The caveat there is that none of those three have yet made 30 relief appearances this season, so they haven’t had as long to have multiple bad outings as has Melancon. Putting these two together, or rather subtracting them from each other (SD-MD), we see that Melancon is at +45 for the season. That’s tops in the game this season, and not by a small margin:

2015 SD-MD Leaders, Qualified Relievers

Name	Team	SD	MD	SD-MD
Mark Melancon	Pirates	47	2	45
Tony Watson	Pirates	41	6	35
Trevor Rosenthal	Cardinals	39	5	34
Wade Davis	Royals	36	4	32
Dellin Betances	Yankees	39	8	31
Shawn Tolleson	Rangers	34	4	30
Joakim Soria	– – –	38	8	30
Huston Street	Angels	36	6	30
Kevin Jepsen	– – –	40	11	29
Hector Rondon	Cubs	37	9	28

But, wait, there’s more! It’s not just 2015 that Melancon is dominating. He’s now tied with fellow 50-save club member Francisco Rodriguez for the best SD-MD season of all-time (all-time being back to 1974, when these stats are first available):

All-Time SD-MD Leaders, Qualified Relievers, 1974-2015

Season	Name	Team	SD	MD	SD-MD
2008	Francisco Rodriguez	Angels	53	8	45
2015	Mark Melancon	Pirates	47	2	45
1989	Mark Davis	Padres	48	5	43
2012	Jim Johnson	Orioles	46	3	43
2002	Eric Gagne	Dodgers	47	6	41
2011	Jonny Venters	Braves	47	6	41
1990	Bobby Thigpen	White Sox	50	9	41
2002	John Smoltz	Braves	46	6	40
2011	John Axford	Brewers	43	3	40
2009	David Aardsma	Mariners	46	6	40
2004	Mariano Rivera	Yankees	44	5	39
1997	Randy Myers	Orioles	42	4	38
2014	Jonathan Papelbon	Phillies	43	5	38
2014	Zach Britton	Orioles	43	5	38
1984	Willie Hernandez	Tigers	41	4	37
2007	J.J. Putz	Mariners	39	2	37
1992	Dennis Eckersley	Athletics	42	5	37
2013	Greg Holland	Royals	41	4	37
2010	Rafael Soriano	Rays	41	4	37
1996	Troy Percival	Angels	40	4	36
2004	Joe Nathan	Twins	38	2	36
1993	Bryan Harvey	Marlins	42	6	36
2001	Felix Rodriguez	Giants	44	8	36
2014	Tony Watson	Pirates	44	8	36
2014	Steve Cishek	Marlins	42	6	36
2005	Bob Wickman	Indians	43	7	36
2000	Keith Foulke	White Sox	40	5	35
1993	Jeff Montgomery	Royals	43	8	35
2004	Tom Gordon	Yankees	43	8	35
2013	Joe Nathan	Rangers	39	4	35
2015	Tony Watson	Pirates	41	6	35
1988	John Franco	Reds	43	8	35
2013	David Robertson	Yankees	40	5	35
2005	Francisco Rodriguez	Angels	42	7	35
2014	Joe Smith	Angels	40	5	35
2012	Aroldis Chapman	Reds	41	6	35
2013	Craig Kimbrel	Braves	40	5	35

Sample Size – 4,943 pitchers

Top of the heap. I included everyone that is at +35 or higher, so as to keep Watson on the table.

What’s more, Melancon is currently the only pitcher to rack up 40+ SDs in a single season and two or fewer MDs. His is one of 78 seasons with 40+ SDs, and the average number of MDs in these seasons is 8.9. That’s pretty freaking good. And with his first meltdown coming in the aforementioned April 21 affair that raised questions about his status, that means Melancon has nearly been perfect ever since. Heading into April 22, Melancon had one SD and one MD. Since, it’s been 46 and one. That’s basically unpossible. His one blemish came in an August 18 outing against the Diamondbacks. He entered in the ninth with a two-run lead. Here’s how that inning went:

• Ender Inciarte reaches on error.
• Jake Lamb strikes out swinging.
• A.J. Pollock flies out to first.
• Aaron Hill singles to left; Inciarte to second.
• Paul Goldschmidt reaches on error; Inciarte, Hill score, Goldschmidt advances to third.
• Welington Castillo fouled out to first.

So, Melancon had to swallow the negative WPA for that outing and the MD with it, but six batters came to the plate, and five of them couldn’t get the ball out of the infield. The ball by Goldschmidt was well hit, but “defensive replacement” Sean Rodriguez tried to play Ole! with the ball, and to horrifying effect. Had he just knocked it down/played the ball into his chest, the game would have ended. Bottom line — it took two errors to get Melancon his only meltdown since April.

Mark Melancon didn’t have a great start to the 2015 campaign, but he has really made up for lost time. And if he can avoid any meltdowns for the rest of the season, it will be a historic season.