Matrix Reloaded: December 19, 2025
Happy Friday once again, everyone! The post-Winter Meetings period has seen an absolute flurry of deals added to the Matrix, so I won’t give my esteemed editor too long of an intro to tackle before we get to the past week’s signings, though I did want to share a quick programming note: Matrix Reloaded will be off next week, but as a gift to you, the reader, it will be back the following Monday (December 29) and Friday (January 2) to cover everything that happens in the interim.
And since this is the last Reloaded before the holiday, allow me to wish a very merry Christmas to those of you who celebrate! (I will be celebrating a very Jewish Christmas by watching football and eating sushi.) Now without further ado, here’s what happened around the league in the last seven days.
Significant Signings
Padres Sign Michael King for Three Years, $75 Million
Effect on the Padres
King’s walk year can’t have been what he wanted, marked as it was by a couple of IL trips and his worst FIP since a 26.2-inning showing in 2020. But he still struck out about a quarter of the batters he faced and is just a year removed from a breakout 2024. As of now, he’ll join Nick Pivetta, who had a breakout of his own this year, to form what could be an excellent top two. The duo will be followed by Joe Musgrove (coming off Tommy John surgery) and a still-questionable amalgam of back-end options like Randy Vásquez, JP Sears, Kyle Hart, and Matt Waldron.
Effect on Other Teams
King was intriguing to teams because of the smaller commitment he seemed likely to command relative to other arms with top-of-the-rotation potential, like Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, and Tatsuya Imai, and to that end King had widespread appeal. Teams close to his native Massachusetts were reportedly some of the clubs with the greatest interest, with King equally interested in heading back East after starting his career with the Yankees.
Perhaps complicating matters, however, was that King was tethered to the qualifying offer, making a contract structure similar to San Diego’s deal (an opt out after each year) potentially tough for anyone but the incumbent Padres to swing; teams may not have wanted to give up a draft pick to sign King to what’s effectively a one-year deal with protections. Those teams may have to bite the bullet and pay more to secure a starter for a longer term.
Effect on Similar Players
I’m not expecting any remaining starting pitchers to sign a deal similar to King’s, so if there’s any effect on the other starting pitchers on the market, it’ll simply be to get the market moving.
Diamondbacks Sign Merrill Kelly for Two Years, $40 Million
Effect on the Diamondbacks
With Zac Gallen having hit free agency and Corbin Burnes set to miss a large chunk of the 2026 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, starting pitching was the direst of needs for a Diamondbacks club that is in something of a transition period, but isn’t necessarily taking a step back, either.
Michael Soroka was the first addition to the rotation, and while he certainly helps, he hasn’t thrown even 100 innings in a season since his rookie campaign in 2019. By bringing Kelly back to lead the staff, the Diamondbacks get a known quantity who’s been a rock-solid metronome ever since coming back to the States from Korea, topping 150 innings in four of the last five seasons and posting more than 3 WAR in three of the last four. Behind him will be Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, and Soroka.
Effect on Other Teams
There wasn’t anything out there on which other teams were in on Kelly, but we do know that he had a larger guarantee on the table from a West Coast team (likely California). While Kelly can make his Diamondbacks contract worth $54 million via a vesting option, he left money on the table to return to where he’s comfortable. That other team — whoever it was — still has money to spend on the rotation, though.
Effect on Similar Players
The “deserving of a multi-year deal in his late 30s” crop is a small one this offseason, with Chris Bassitt really the only pitcher who’s comparable to Kelly. Bassitt hasn’t been quite as good as Kelly has in recent years, but he’s not far off, and he’s also made 25-plus starts in the last six non-2020 seasons, something that Kelly can’t claim. An identical deal to Kelly’s doesn’t seem far-fetched for the 36-year-old.
Mets Sign Jorge Polanco for Two Years, $40 Million
Effect on the Mets
The Mets moved on quickly after Pete Alonso defected to Baltimore, with the Polanco deal reported just three days after Alonso’s signing broke. The big wrinkle with Polanco is that he’ll be playing first base for the first time in his major league career, save for one game (indeed, one pitch, as Jay noted in his write-up) this year. While Mets president David Stearns left the door open for Polanco to fill in elsewhere (likely second or third) as needed, the current plan appears to be having Polanco and Mark Vientos split time at first base and DH, with the better defensive player in Brett Baty across the diamond at third and Jeff McNeil at second. McNeil may still yet be traded, which would open up more possibilities for how the Mets align things and/or open up a spot for another starting-caliber infielder.
In Polanco, the Mets are getting a guy who just posted the best-ever year-to-year improvement in his strikeout rate while also setting a career best in wRC+ and clubbing 26 homers playing half his games in a park that isn’t very conducive to the long ball. It’s not totally unrealistic to expect that there’s another gear for Polanco even as he enters his age-32 season, something like his 2021 power output and health in tandem with a command of the strike zone that’s never been stronger.
Effect on Other Teams
The Mariners were the runners-up for Polanco, falling short of meeting the Mets’ contract with a two-year offer of their own.
While there are still free agent options out there for both second and third base, it’s already been reported that Jerry Dipoto would rather be his usual Trader Jerry self to fill those needs. Per The Seattle Times, the Mariners have expressed interest in Ketel Marte and Brendan Donovan, either of whom could hit in the top two spots of the lineup and lengthen a starting nine that looks unimpressive right around the fifth or sixth spot in the order.
Effect on Similar Players
There are no remaining infielders who are analogous to Polanco — Alex Bregman and Bo Bichette will sign for far more, and Kazuma Okamoto and Munetaka Murakami are coming over from Japan — but since he’s signed to play first base, it may affect how much other first basemen sign for. Ryan O’Hearn is probably the closest first baseman there is to Polanco on the open market, and while he’s still not going to sniff $20 million per year, three-quarters of Polanco’s deal sounds about right.
Giants Sign Adrian Houser for Two Years, $22 Million
Effect on the Giants
Houser revitalized his career on the South Side of Chicago before being traded to the Rays at the deadline, and now cashes in with a nice multi-year deal. He currently slots into the middle of the rotation behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, but he may yet move down to the fourth or fifth spot, with the Giants still looking into rotation upgrades despite having Houser in the fold.
Effect on Other Teams
Judging by the contract value, Houser was viewed as a tier-plus down from the likes of Kelly and Bassitt, which would have made him more affordable to teams on a budget. Those teams still have options aplenty, though, arms who should be similar in cost to Houser but actually come with longer track records.
Effect on Similar Players
Some of the pitchers for whom a deal akin to Houser’s feels about right include Nick Martinez and Zack Littell, both of whom, like Houser, pitched a fully healthy, perfectly solid 2025. Those two don’t come with the interesting velocity jump that Houser exhibited, but unlike Houser, they have strung together consecutive years of being valuable.
Braves Sign Ha-Seong Kim for One Year, $20 Million
Effect on the Braves
Kim’s return to the fold now solidifies Atlanta’s starting 10 or 11, with Mike Yastrzemski and Sean Murphy effectively in a platoon that’ll shift some positions around, and Mauricio Dubón perhaps patrolling center field against lefties. In securing the best defensive shortstop on the free agent market (not a high bar considering how shallow the shortstop class is), the Braves now have a very solid defense all around the diamond.
Offensively, Kim has been scattershot in his MLB career thus far, but he’s not going to be expected to anchor the lineup in the slightest and will most likely hit eighth or ninth.
Effect on Other Teams
The most interesting piece of news following Kim’s signing was the report that the A’s offered him four years and $48 million, with the idea that he’d start at second base and occasionally spell shortstop Jacob Wilson.
What, if anything, the A’s plan to do with that $48 million (or, viewed another way, $12 million for 2026) remains to be seen, but it piqued my interest to see them go in on another hitter instead of a starting pitcher, at least as far as we know publicly. Perhaps the A’s are just waiting to see which pitcher loses the game of Starting Pitcher Musical Chairs and has to settle for calling a minor league park home.
Effect on Similar Players
With such a thin shortstop market, there’s nobody like Kim who’s unsigned. Bichette is a shortstop now, but perhaps won’t be for long, and he’ll of course sign for considerably more money. Beyond Bichette, the best available true shortstop is… Isiah Kiner-Falefa?
Rangers Sign Danny Jansen for Two Years, $14.5 Million
Effect on the Rangers
The Rangers had an obvious need for a second catcher after non-tendering Jonah Heim, which left the 35-year-old Kyle Higashioka as the starter for a few weeks. Higgy has never started more than 77 games behind the plate in the season, and unless the Rangers wanted to get a good long look at Willie MacIver, bringing in someone like Jansen was necessary.
Jansen himself has never started more than 82 games at catcher, but that high-water mark was set this year, and he probably would have caught 100-plus games had he stuck around with the Rays all season instead of serving as William Contreras’ backup after the trade deadline.
The Rangers will likely operate with a timeshare once again, similar to the Heim–Higashioka tandem where neither was ever declared the starter.
Effect on Other Teams
In an already-thin free agent pool for catchers, teams in search of a backstop now have one fewer option. The Phillies are expected to bring J.T. Realmuto back to the City of Brotherly Love, which would leave Heim, Victor Caratini, and Elias Díaz as the only remaining free agents at the position who’ve had a starter’s(ish) workload in recent years. A lot of the teams above the Phillies in projected catcher performance are probably rolling with what they’ve got anyway, but the Rays and Rockies strike me as clubs looking to upgrade with a starter or oft-playing backup.
Effect on Similar Players
Of the above-listed catchers, Caratini is the most analogous to Jansen, having always been in a “backup-plus” role without ever fully taking the reins behind the dish. Jansen earning a two-year deal should be good news for Caratini, since Jansen’s median contract prediction (on the Total Spending Projection tab) was for one year at $8.5 million. Caratini ought to do better than the two-year, $12 million contract he just finished and may well outdo Jansen’s deal.
Padres Sign Sung-moon Song for Three Years, Approx. $13 Million
Effect on the Padres
Song will serve as an indirect Luis Arraez replacement, a lower-cost but higher-risk option to presumably start at second base and slide Jake Cronenworth back over to first. Song took an interesting path to MLB, struggling from ages 18-26 in the KBO before exploding with a 143 wRC+ in 2024 and backing it up with a 151 mark in 2025. He can also fill in for Manny Machado at third and has some first base experience, but none since 2024.
Effect on Other Teams
We don’t know who else was interested in Song, so it isn’t clear to what extent other teams will have to move on to a plan B.
Effect on Similar Players
As a first time MLBer coming over from the KBO without huge fanfare, there aren’t any players who are particularly similar to Song, either.
Cardinals Sign Dustin May for One Year, $12.5 Million
Effect on the Cardinals
After trading Sonny Gray to Boston, the Cardinals backfilled his spot with May, who simultaneously had his best and worst season at the big league level, depending on how you look at it.
The gangly righty finally (almost) made it through a full season without getting hurt, setting a career high in innings with 132.1, over 80 innings more than he’d ever thrown in a big league season before. His performance left quite a bit to be desired, though. May has never struck out a lower proportion of batters or allowed more hard contact than he did this year, and for that reason the Cardinals should get to work with him as soon as possible to figure out what tweaks need to be made to make him better.
May will join Matthew Liberatore as the only two Cardinals with a guaranteed rotation spot, with a slew of others — most prominently Andre Pallante, Michael McGreevy, Kyle Leahy, and Richard Fitts — competing for the last three spots.
Effect on Other Teams
As a young free agent set to pitch in his age-28 season but also coming off a tough year, May offered a unique combination of upside and relative affordability that doesn’t really exist elsewhere on the free agent market. Because of that, there’s no clean pivot for other teams to make, but there are plenty of starters yet to be signed.
Effect on Similar Players
While there’s nobody quite like May left in free agency, his $12.5 million salary should help inform the price for bounce-back, sign-and-maybe-flip-at-the-trade-deadline starters. Names in that group include Germán Márquez, Walker Buehler, and Aaron Civale, all of whom could probably be signed for less than May.
So, So Many Relievers
In this section, I’ll go over how each team’s reliever signing(s) affect their projected bullpen, then talk about the best remaining free agent relievers at the end.
Blue Jays Sign Tyler Rogers for Three Years, $37 Million
On the heels of his finest season since 2021, not to mention his busiest, Rogers earned himself the fourth-biggest reliever contract of the offseason to this point. With the lowest release angle in the majors, Rogers will allow the Jays to massively change the eye levels of hitters, especially on the days Trey Yesavage — who has the league’s highest release angle — starts.
While Jeff Hoffman was much maligned this year, giving up 15 homers in the regular season and another, uh, gigantic one in the World Series, I wouldn’t anticipate Rogers wresting the closing job from him, assuming Hoffman’s stuff remains intact. Rogers is excellent at inducing soft contact, which should work especially well with Ernie Clement and Andrés Giménez on the infield, but striking batters out is not and never will be part of his game. That makes him far from ideal as the last line of defense, since introducing so many balls in play into the equation can make it harder to get out of jams with tight leads or tie games still intact.
Rogers also has a vesting option for $11 million if he pitches 60 games in 2028, or 110 combined from 2027 to 2028 and then passes a physical at the end of the 2028 season. Considering his workhorse nature, that seems about as close to a guarantee as a vesting option can get.
Phillies Sign Brad Keller for Two Years, $22 Million
Formerly a Rule 5 success as a starting pitcher after he was taken by the Royals out of the Diamondbacks system in 2017, Keller’s career fell on hard times beginning in 2021. From that year through 2024, bouncing between the rotation and the bullpen, Keller posted a garish 5.18 ERA and 4.90 FIP with the Royals, White Sox, and Red Sox.
That all changed this year, when Keller took a minor league deal with the Cubs and came into spring training throwing harder than ever. But he didn’t just blow it by guys: He used a five-pitch, starter-like repertoire to retire hitters in any situation Craig Counsell asked, saving three games, opening one, and allowing only four homers in 69.2 innings.
While he had interest from other teams (including the Tigers) as a starter, Keller will stay in the bullpen for the Phillies, serving as Jhoan Duran’s top righty setup man.
Mets Sign Luke Weaver for Two Years, $22 Million
Just an hour or so after the Keller signing was reported, news broke that the Mets had agreed to an identical deal with Weaver, reuniting him with Yankees teammate Devin Williams to form a 1-2 punch at the back of the bullpen.
Weaver’s 2025 was a step back from his 2024, with a hamstring strain and possible pitch-tipping putting a damper on a season that had started excellently; by the time October rolled around, he was persona non grata in high-leverage situations.
For the Mets to have still given Weaver a sizable commitment suggests that they believe that any mechanical or tipping issues can be ironed out, if they haven’t been already. As the depth chart currently stands, the Mets will have lefties A.J. Minter and Brooks Raley and righty Huascar Brazobán to help get to Weaver and Williams in the eighth and ninth. Adbert Alzolay, signed to a two-year minor league deal last offseason, could be an X factor in the middle innings.
Tigers Sign Kenley Jansen for One Year, $11 Million
After a season in Anaheim, Jansen heads to Detroit to take on a role he’s never had: non-closer. Well, sorta. Even with Jansen just 24 saves away from 500, he’s not being handed the closer’s job and has indicated he is on board with how A.J. Hinch likes to operate a bullpen, picking spots for his best arms instead of setting rigid roles. That means Jansen will be competing with Will Vest and Kyle Finnegan for saves.
Despite great run-prevention numbers as an Angel, it wasn’t an unimpeachably good season for the 38-year-old. His strikeout rate and CSW% were the lowest of his career, and Jansen benefitted from a career-low .195 BABIP allowed. But his cutter velocity was right in line with 2024, and he was stingier than he had been in recent years at issuing walks, so he gives Hinch a solid closing option, even if he’s not the closer.
Guardians Sign Shawn Armstrong for One Year, $5.5 Million
After a career high in WAR, appearances, and innings pitched in his only season with the Rangers, Armstrong’s circuitous, up-and-down career will return to where it all began. The 35-year-old’s four-pitch mix — he uses all four pitches just about equally — is unique for a reliever and gives the Guardians a different look from closer Cade Smith, setup man Hunter Gaddis and lefty Erik Sabrowski, all of whom are more traditional two- or three-pitch bullpen arms.
Cubs Sign Caleb Thielbar for One Year, $4.5 Million
Thielbar returns to Wrigley Field after posting one of the finest seasons of his career at age 38. Of the Cubs’ key bullpenners to hit free agency, he is the only one who has re-signed with the club. The new-look relief corps will be led by the flame-throwing Daniel Palencia, with Thielbar joining new additions Phil Maton and Hoby Milner in helping to set him up with a variety of looks.
Reds Sign Caleb Ferguson for One Year, $4.5 Million
Ferguson was extremely reliable for both the Pirates and Mariners in 2025, allowing just two homers in 65.1 innings thanks to a hard-hit rate that dropped nearly 10 percentage points year over year. With Brent Suter reaching free agency, the Reds had a clear need for lefty relief and found it in Ferguson. Along with Tony Santillan, Graham Ashcraft, and Connor Phillips, he’ll help bridge the gap between the day’s starter and closer Emilio Pagán.
Angels Sign Drew Pomeranz ($4 Million) and Jordan Romano ($2 Million) to One-Year Deals
The yearly Angels Bullpen Makeover has found two interesting names in Pomeranz and Romano, who headed in opposite directions this season. Pomeranz made his way back to the majors for the first time since 2021 after having been ravaged by injuries and pitched excellently for the Cubs, while Romano had a stinker of a season for the Phillies.
The closer competition will be intriguing to watch come spring training, with Robert Stephenson, Brock Burke, and Ryan Zeferjahn competing for leverage innings with Pomeranz and Romano. Ben Joyce, the 105-mph man, had shoulder surgery this year but could be a factor at some point in 2026.
Giants Sign Jason Foley for One Year, $2 Million
Foley’s a longer-term upside play for the Giants, as he’s under club control through 2028 and won’t be ready to join the big league team until midseason after undergoing a shoulder procedure earlier this year. At his best, he’s a groundball machine who can rush his sinker to the plate at close to triple digits.
Rangers Sign Chris Martin ($ TBA), Alexis Díaz ($ TBA), and Tyler Alexander ($1.125 Million) to One-Year Deals
- Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Martin Deal
- Davy’s Write-Up of the Díaz and Alexander Deals
- Updated Roster Projection
- Updated Payroll Projection
Lefty Robert Garcia was the only high-leverage holdover from a Rangers bullpen that saw Martin hit free agency along with Phil Maton, Shawn Armstrong, Hoby Milner, and Danny Coulombe. Jacob Webb and Josh Sborz were later non-tendered, giving Texas essentially an entire bullpen to reconstruct.
Díaz and Alexander are lower-cost signings who could nonetheless provide important innings, especially if Díaz can get within shouting distance of his peak with the Reds. Alexander was quietly very good after latching on with the White Sox at midseason, and at minimum will be helpful at eating innings.
Martin battled multiple injuries last year but was basically himself during his age-39 season. He was extremely stingy at issuing free passes, making him a low heart rate option for new manager Skip Schumaker. He could compete with Garcia for the closer job should the Rangers elect to use just one man in that role.
Best-of-the-Rest Relievers
While the cupboard has gotten significantly more bare in the past week, there are still relievers aplenty looking for jobs.
Pete Fairbanks is the one relief arm left with significant closing experience, and he ought to get a deal similar to those signed by Keller and Weaver. But there are other hard-throwing relievers from the right side, like Seranthony Domínguez and Michael Kopech. Fellow righties Jakob Junis, Luis García, Pierce Johnson, Tyler Kinley, and Scott Barlow are also coming off good seasons. Elsewhere, Tommy Kahnle and Hunter Harvey are interesting buy-lows.
The options from the left side aren’t quite as exciting, but Sean Newcomb, Brent Suter, Danny Coulombe, Kolby Allard, Andrew Chafin, Taylor Rogers, and Jalen Beeks are all looking for jobs.
Rapid-Fire One-Year Deals
Phillies Sign Adolis García for One Year, $10 Million
García has been worse than the man he’s replacing, Nick Castellanos, the last couple seasons, but only at the plate. He’s a massive upgrade is in the field; he’s almost always been average or above with a cannon of an arm in right. Of course, the Phillies are hoping to get more out of the bat. Maybe he’ll never again reach the heights of his 2023 season, in which he posted a 128 wRC+, but his 2022 (112) or even 2021 (99) would be more than welcome.
As for Castellanos, the Phillies are now tasked with finding a taker for at least some small portion of the $20 million that remains on his contract. There haven’t been any teams connected to him yet, and the Phillies may have to wait for the dust to settle on the remaining free agent hitters before working out a deal.
Twins Sign Josh Bell for One Year, $7 Million
Bell’s journeyman ways continue, as he’s joining his sixth team since being traded away from the Pirates after the 2020 season. With the Twins planning to keep Byron Buxton, Pablo López, and Joe Ryan, first base became one of the big needs for the club to fill as they look to at least somewhat contend in 2026. Bell’s switch-hitting allows him to start with the platoon advantage every day, but his recent performance against lefties (56 wRC+ this year) leaves a lot to be desired.
Nationals Sign Foster Griffin for One Year, $5.5 Million
Griffin revitalized his career pitching for NPB’s Yomiuri Giants over the last three seasons and was able to secure himself an MLB contract after 78 innings of 1.62 ERA ball in 2025. Though MacKenzie Gore (if he’s still around) is the only arm guaranteed to be in the Nationals’ rotation, Griffin should have a leg up in a competition that also includes Cade Cavalli, Josiah Gray, Brad Lord, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, and Griff McGarry, among others.
Yankees Sign Amed Rosario for One Year, $2.5 Million
Rosario will return to the niche lefty-mashing role that he filled so well for the Yankees down the stretch, mostly plugging in as a platoon partner for lefty-swinging Ryan McMahon at third base. Rosario’s biggest issue is that he’s an awful fielder no matter where you put him, but he’s at least got experience attempting to play six different positions, which makes him more easily usable as a pinch-hitter late in games, too.
Cubs Sign Tyler Austin for One Year, $1.25 Million
Austin returns to MLB after six seasons spent mashing in Japan, hitting as many as 28 homers in a single season for the BayStars and posting a 147 wRC+ in 246 plate appearances this year. He’s a logical platoon partner for Moisés Ballesteros at DH or Michael Busch at first.
Mariners Sign Andrew Knizner for One Year, $1 Million
“Backup catcher to Cal Raleigh” is the closest thing baseball has to “backup quarterback to Tom Brady,” so Knizner won’t play very much. He should still be able to get 100 plate appearances for the first time since 2023, though.
Trades
Pirates Acquire Brandon Lowe, Jake Mangum, Mason Montgomery from Rays; Astros Acquire Mike Burrows from Pirates; Rays Acquire Jacob Melton, Anderson Brito from Astros
- Updated Pirates Roster Projection
- Updated Astros Roster Projection
- Updated Rays Roster Projection
- Updated Pirates Payroll Projection
- Updated Astros Payroll Projection
- Updated Rays Payroll Projection
Effect on the Pirates
The top three needs for the Pirates heading into the offseason? Offense, offense, and offense. Before acquiring Lowe and Mangum, the best Pittsburgh could muster was acquiring outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia from the Red Sox in between missing out on Josh Naylor and Kyle Schwarber.
Lowe’s defense at second base has never been anything to write home about, but he’s posted a wRC+ below 110 just once in his big league career and has popped as many as 39 homers in a season. He’s now the best hitter the Pirates have, but he shouldn’t be the last middle-of-the-order threat they acquire. On the Matrix, they’ve been connected to Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto, J.T. Realmuto, Ryan O’Hearn, and Marcell Ozuna. From my vantage point, a righty bat would make the most sense, with Lowe joining Oneil Cruz and Spencer Horwitz from the left side.
Mangum had a solid rookie showing this year, finally reaching the bigs in his age-29 season. He has virtually no pop and won’t take walks, but he switch-hits, he can play all three outfield positions, and he’ll steal a bunch of bases, too.
Montgomery is no slouch himself, with triple-digit heat from the left side and a vicious slider making for as good of a two-pitch mix as any in baseball, at least in terms of pure stuff. Montgomery had some hiccups this year but still struck out over 30% of batters faced. His acquisition gives first-year manager Don Kelly a second hard-throwing lefty to go with the just-signed Gregory Soto.
Effect on the Rays
Lowe’s been included in trade rumors for years, and the rumors have finally become reality. The Rays have plenty of options for replacing him, including sliding Taylor Walls over to second and giving top prospect Carson Williams the reins at shortstop, or alternatively giving Richie Palacios the starting job. Of course, the Rays could go even bigger here: On the Trades/Claims tab of the Matrix, you’ll see that they reportedly have interest in Ketel Marte.
Melton is another lefty-hitting outfielder for an organization that already has plenty, so he comes to mind as someone who could plausibly be flipped to Arizona in a hypothetical Marte trade. As for Brito, it’s not hard to see why he piqued the Rays’ interest: He’s a hard-thrower who strikes a bunch of guys out.
Effect on the Astros
The Astros rotation entering the offseason was Hunter Brown and a Bunch of Frowns, and Burrows is a good arm with six years remaining before he hits free agency. His changeup is his calling card, but he also throws in the mid-90s with a slider that grades out pretty well by Stuff+. Even if he’s basically the same as he was this year (3.94 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 4.35 xERA), he’s an upgrade for a rotation with no sure things beyond Brown. We’ll have more on the trade up at the site soon.
Orioles Acquire Shane Baz from Rays for Four Prospects, Competitive Balance Pick
- Updated Orioles Roster Projection
- Updated Rays Roster Projection
- Updated Orioles Payroll Projection
- Updated Rays Payroll Projection
Effect on the Orioles
The Orioles boldly traded from their rotation when they moved Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels in exchange for new starting left fielder Taylor Ward, and they had yet to add to a group led by Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish. Enter Baz, who has a scintillating fastball and a filthy curveball but has yet to quite put it all together. What Baz finally did do this year, though, was stay healthy, with a career-high 31 starts and 166.1 innings.
Still just 26 years old, Baz has three more years of control remaining before he hits free agency, and I wouldn’t assume his acquisition takes the Orioles out of the market for starting pitching entirely. Adding another starter would likely push Tyler Wells to the bullpen, where he’s succeeded in the past.
Effect on the Rays
In case you forgot, this is what the Rays do. They get pretty good seasons out of their pitchers, and trade them at or near the height of their value. Having just signed Steven Matz, Baz became more expendable, and the Rays are (hopefully) getting Shane McClanahan back into the rotation and can use Joe Boyle, Joe Rock, and Ian Seymour as depth options as well.
The haul for Baz — two of the club’s top four picks last year in Slater de Brun and Caden Bodine, plus righty starter Michael Forret and speedy outfielder Austin Overn, not to mention the comp pick — stocks up a Rays organization that’s always churning through prospects and taking long-term 40-man roster considerations into account. And if the team is in fact interested in Marte after moving Lowe to Pittsburgh, they’ve got all the more ammo now. We’ll have more on the trade up at the site soon.
Royals Acquire Isaac Collins and Nick Mears from Brewers for Angel Zerpa
- Kiri Oler’s Write-Up of the Deal
- Updated Royals Roster Projection
- Updated Brewers Roster Projection
- Updated Royals Payroll Projection
- Updated Brewers Payroll Projection
Effect on the Royals
The Royals entered the offseason with perhaps the bleakest outfield situation amongst contending teams, and while signing Lane Thomas was a nice first step, it certainly couldn’t have been the last one. Enter Collins, a former Triple-A Rule 5 pick who finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting thanks to a 122 wRC+ and a 13% walk rate. He’s also versatile in all facets since he switch-hits and has minor league experience at second and third in addition to the outfield. We’ve currently got him projected as the no. 8 hitter at RosterResource, but he’s got a leadoff skill set if Maikel Garcia continues to hit for power and Matt Quatraro wants to bump him down.
As for Mears, he now joins his fourth major league team in four years of service time. He throws hard and has shown big strikeout stuff in the past, but took a step back in that department this year, which was also his busiest at the big league level. On the plus side, his walk rate was also a career best by far. He’ll serve in middle relief behind closer Carlos Estévez and setup men Lucas Erceg, John Schreiber, and the newly-acquired Matt Strahm (covered below).
Effect on the Brewers
On its surface, five years of club control for Collins and two of Mears looks like an awful lot to give up for Zerpa, who’s never quite put it all together and hasn’t been beloved by ERA estimators, either. But the Brewers have gotten so much out of so many different types of pitchers for so many years that it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see a major glow-up from Zerpa, perhaps even as a starter.
If he is indeed in the bullpen to start things out next year, he’s probably the fourth-best lefty option as it currently stands, but he could — as so many Brewers have — quickly shoot upward into greater prominence.
As for the outfield sans Collins, the Brewers still have five starting-caliber options with Christian Yelich set to continue as the primary DH: Jake Bauers, Sal Frelick, Jackson Chourio, Blake Perkins, and Garrett Mitchell. All but Bauers can play center, and Perkins is a switch-hitter, so there are many combinations the Brewers can put out there.
Royals Acquire Matt Strahm from Phillies for Jonathan Bowlan
- Updated Royals Roster Projection
- Updated Phillies Roster Projection
- Updated Royals Payroll Projection
- Updated Phillies Payroll Projection
Effect on the Royals
Reacquiring Strahm, who started his career with Kansas City, is something of an extension of the Collins–Zerpa trade, with the Royals backfilling Zerpa’s spot by bringing in a pitcher with whom they’re familiar and who has recently outpitched Zerpa.
Strahm’s gotten more fly ball-heavy in recent years, which should play better in Kansas City’s cavernous outfield than it did in Philadelphia, and while his walk rate has fluctuated a bit, it’s consistently better than league average. He’ll be the unquestioned top lefty in the Royals bullpen, helping to get to Estévez in the ninth.
Effect on the Phillies
Initial reactions to the trade from Phillies fans (yes, I spend way too much time on Twitter and Bluesky) were negative, because Strahm has been such a key part of the Phillies’ staff over the last three years. But in Bowlan the Phillies are acquiring six years of a very interesting relief arm who came into his own once moving to the bullpen in 2025.
Bowlan’s fastball and slider whiff rates were both around 40% this year, and he continued to mix in a sinker, curve, and changeup, making it easy enough to see him transitioning back to starting at some point down the line if his stuff can hold in that role. We’ll have more on the trade up at the site soon.
Jon Becker manages RosterResource's team payroll pages and assists with all other aspects of RosterResource, too. Follow him at your own peril on Twitter at @jonbecker_ and on BlueSky at @jon-becker.com.