Matrix Reloaded: December 29, 2025
Hello, and a very happy holiday season, everyone! After skipping last week, it’s a special Monday edition of the Matrix Reloaded, and as a bonus, you’ll also get a Matrix Reloaded this Friday, the first of 2026. You can find the Offseason Matrices document here. You know the drill by now, so let’s get right into the rundown.
Significant Signings
White Sox Sign Munetaka Murakami for Two Years, $34 Million
- Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Deal
- Jordan Rosenblum’s Write-Up of Murakami’s Projections
- Updated Roster Projection
- Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the White Sox
Does signing Murakami make the White Sox any likelier to make the playoffs in 2026 or 2027? Probably not. Does it make them way more entertaining to watch? Absolutely. This is the sort of move that a team like the White Sox should be making whenever it gets a chance — and those chances don’t come around often. In a free agent market full of talented players, two years and $34 million for Murakami’s 80-grade raw power should go down as the biggest upside play of the whole offseason, with boom or bust potential unlike any free agent I can recall.
And unlike about 27 other teams, the White Sox can give Murakami a nice, long runway to either soar or crash and burn like some think he’s destined to. A team with playoff aspirations can’t afford to lose wins by giving Murakami 1,200 plate appearances over two years if he looks cooked by the 200th, since he can’t be optioned to the minors without his consent. The White Sox, though? They can give him all the reps they want, both at the plate and at first base, a new position for him. Maybe he’s the bad Joey Gallo. Maybe he’s the good Joey Gallo. Maybe he’s Kyle Schwarber. The White Sox are surely going to let us find out over a nice, big sample.
Effect on Other Teams
It’s always tough to say which teams are truly in on Japanese players and which ones are just being floated as possibilities, especially when the player coming over isn’t an international sensation like Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto. There were plenty of teams loosely connected to Murakami, but there were never any reports of “favorites” or anything like that. Whichever teams had interest, there isn’t another Murakami-type player on the free agent market anyway. Attention will likely now turn to fellow NPB star Kazuma Okamoto, but besides them both being Japanese third basemen, they’re very different from each other.
Effect on Similar Players
Murakami was a unique player in this market — uniquely talented, uniquely flawed, uniquely young — so I don’t think his deal will have much of an effect on anyone else’s contract.
Pirates Sign Ryan O’Hearn for Two Years, $29 Million
Effect on the Pirates
I don’t buy that the Pirates have a good lineup just yet, but they certainly have a better one after adding O’Hearn on top of the trade with the Rays and Astros that brought them Brandon Lowe and Jake Mangum.
This season, O’Hearn wasn’t shielded from lefties for the first time in his career, and he responded with a 135 wRC+ in 109 plate appearances against them. With the team’s other big acquisitions so far all being lefties (Mangum’s a switch-hitter who was better from the left side), O’Hearn continuing his platoon-neutrality would be a boon to a lineup that got rough performances against southpaws from Spencer Horwitz, and Oneil Cruz; Lowe himself had a horrid 49 wRC+ against such pitching.
But given O’Hearn’s previous platooning, the Pirates shouldn’t just assume that he will continue his strong-hitting ways against lefties. That’s where Pittsburgh’s one right-handed addition, Jhostynxon Garcia, should come in, though it should also be where the pursuit of another righty bat intensifies as the Pirates look to take the next step behind their strong pitching staff. On the Matrix, you’ll see them connected to Okamoto, Marcell Ozuna, and J.T. Realmuto, all righty swingers.
Effect on Other Teams
There wasn’t much reported interest in O’Hearn before he signed, and there aren’t really any other impact lefty hitters remaining in his price range as far as pivot players go. That leaves the trade market for teams looking for thump in the middle of the lineup. Lefty swingers potentially on the trade block include Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, CJ Abrams, Steven Kwan, Nolan Gorman, and Brendan Donovan.
Effect on Similar Players
As mentioned above, there isn’t anyone similar to O’Hearn left on the free agent market. Luis Arraez is a lefty who could sign for something similar to O’Hearn’s deal, but he’s a completely different type of hitter.
Marlins Sign Pete Fairbanks for One Year, $13 Million
Effect on the Marlins
The Marlins had reported interest in Fairbanks well before it was known (publicly, at least) that breakout reliever Ronny Henriquez would miss the entirety of next season after undergoing UCL repair. But the loss of the team’s best reliever this year acutely raised the need for a lockdown arm and perhaps caused them to raise their offer to keep the former Ray in Florida.
Fairbanks wasn’t as dominant in 2025 as he has been in years past, but he did set a new career high in innings pitched, no small feat for a guy who’s missed time with nerve irritation, hip inflammation, and a lat tear, not to mention recurring Raynaud’s syndrome, which affects his ability to grip the ball in colder weather. He’ll be the Marlins’ first true closer since Tanner Scott, with Calvin Faucher — the closest thing the club has had to a closer since Scott was moved to the Padres — setting up for Fairbanks.
Effect on Other Teams
If you wanted a closer on the free agent market, you’re all out of luck, as Fairbanks was the last true closer standing. Edwin Díaz, Devin Williams, Ryan Helsley, Emilio Pagán, Raisel Iglesias, Kyle Finnegan, and Kenley Jansen join Fairbanks as relievers who will serve as at least part of a closing committee in 2026, not to mention big deals for Tyler Rogers, Brad Keller, and Luke Weaver.
Maybe a team will want to take the risk of giving Seranthony Domínguez (wildness) or Michael Kopech (missed most of this year due to injury) a job, but the trade market is the likelier place to find a closer right now. Potentially available high-leverage arms include Mason Miller and Trevor Megill.
Effect on Similar Players
With no other obvious closers left in free agency, the only way Fairbanks’ signing will affect the relievers still on the market is by giving them a bit more leverage with teams that are desperate.
Orioles Sign Zach Eflin for One Year, $10 Million
Effect on the Orioles
On the surface, a major league deal for a starter would appear to complete the Orioles rotation, with Eflin returning to the club to join Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, and Shane Baz. But with Eflin undergoing a microdiscectomy on his back in August, he’s questionable for Opening Day; the original timetable quoted was four to eight months, and the full eight months would have Eflin returning in mid-April.
Plus, this is a team that’s clearly all-in on winning in 2026, and while the rotation certainly looks much improved after the addition of Baz and the reunion with Eflin, there’s nothing stopping the Orioles from adding yet another starter to take a spot if Eflin is out to start the year. They could then move Kremer to the bullpen when Eflin is ready, assuming Eflin returns to a fully healthy squad. Eflin’s signing is also likely to push Tyler Wells to the bullpen early in the season if not on Opening Day; that’s a role he’s filled very well in the past.
Effect on Other Teams
The only other team with reported interest in Eflin was the Rays, who traded Eflin to the Orioles at the trade deadline in 2024. That interest was reported before they signed Steven Matz and traded Baz to Baltimore, so they could still add another starter. The Rays would also like to bring Zack Littell back, another arm they traded away. Coming off a full season, though, he may require multiple years or more money on a one-year pact than the Rays are willing to commit.
Effect on Similar Players
We haven’t seen a lot of one-year deals given to buy-low starters this offseason, but with Eflin’s $10 million following Dustin May’s $12.5 million, we’ve at least got a couple of data points for the contracts of other starters coming off tough and/or disjointed seasons. Other arms in that broad category include Germán Márquez, Walker Buehler, Aaron Civale, Tyler Anderson, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Martín Pérez.
Rapid-Fire One-Year Deals
Mariners Sign Rob Refsnyder for $6.25 Million
Formerly a well-regarded Yankees prospect, Refsnyder resurrected his career in Boston in 2022, his age-31 season. He has proven to be extremely useful over the last four seasons as a lefty-mashing outfielder/DH; in that quadrennium spanning 501 plate appearances against southpaws, Refsnyder hit .312/.407/.516 (155 wRC+) and mashed 19 homers.
It’s worth noting that in announcing the Refsnyder signing, the Mariners referred to him as an “outfielder/first baseman,” implying that he could spell Josh Naylor some against lefties despite only having 227 career innings at first, and none since 2020. A more natural platoon partner is outfielder Dominic Canzone, who broke out with a 141 wRC+ in 268 plate appearances this year. His wRC+ was a respectable 113 in 68 plate appearances against left-handers, but he’s no Refsnyder.
Cubs Sign Hunter Harvey for $6 Million and Jacob Webb for $1.5 Million
Harvey has been a tantalizing arm ever since the Orioles drafted him 22nd overall in 2013, but injuries prevented him from debuting in the big leagues until 2019, and he didn’t have his first extended run in the majors until 2022, his age-27 season. Harvey’s always shown good stuff when healthy, especially in 2025. The flame-throwing righty threw 10.2 scoreless innings before his season was cut short by teres major and adductor injuries, putting a damper on his walk year. The Cubs will be the fourth team to roll the dice on trying to keep him healthy.
As for Webb, all he knows how to do is prevent runs at a rate better than his FIP suggests he ought to, get non-tendered, sign a cheap contract, and then do it all over again. The righty was non-tendered by the Orioles after posting a 3.02 ERA (but a 3.52 FIP) in 2024, and again by the Rangers after a 3.00 ERA (but a 4.30 FIP) this year. That continues a career-long trend of Webb beating his FIP; his career ERA is a sparkling 2.99 despite a middling 4.07 FIP.
Webb and Harvey join a new-look Cubs bullpen that has lost Brad Keller and Drew Pomeranz, but has added Phil Maton, Hoby Milner, Harvey, and Webb.
White Sign Sean Newcomb for $4.5 Million
A former top prospect, Newcomb had his best season since 2018, splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen while pitching for the Red Sox and the Athletics. His walk rate, which has long been his bugaboo, was at its career nadir in 2025, the first time it was better than league average. Shane Smith and Anthony Kay should be guaranteed two of the five rotation spots, with Newcomb joining Davis Martin, Sean Burke, Jonathan Cannon, and others in jockeying for the final three. If he loses out, he should be the go-to lefty in the White Sox bullpen.
Yankees Sign Paul Blackburn for $2 Million
The Yankees are taking a low-cost flier on Blackburn, the former All-Star starter who started to incorporate some pitch mix changes (more cutters and sinkers, fewer sliders and curveballs) once he switched sides in the Subway Series rivalry in August. With Carlos Rodón missing the start of 2026 after bone spur removal, Blackburn will compete with Ryan Yarbrough for the fifth starter spot, with the loser heading to the bullpen.
Reds Sign JJ Bleday for $1.4 Million
Bleday was the fourth overall pick by the Marlins in the 2019 draft before being traded for A.J. Puk in 2023, and looked to have broken out in 2024. His 120 wRC+ and 3.2 WAR made him look like a key part of the A’s core as they moved to Sacramento, but he fell flat in 2025. His 90 wRC+ and Tyler Soderstrom’s move to the outfield knocked Bleday down on the depth chart, leading to his non-tender.
Cincy presents Bleday with a good park to hit in and an open outfield competition, with Gavin Lux, Noelvi Marte, and Will Benson also vying for significant playing time next to center fielder TJ Friedl. Bleday can be optioned to the minors if there aren’t enough plate appearances for him, and he’s under team control through 2028.
Trades
Red Sox Acquire Willson Contreras from Cardinals for Hunter Dobbins, Yhoiker Fajardo, and Blake Aita
- Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of the Deal
- Updated Red Sox Roster Projection
- Updated Cardinals Roster Projection
- Updated Red Sox Payroll Projection
- Updated Cardinals Payroll Projection
Effect on the Red Sox
Much like the city of Boston itself, the Red Sox lineup leaned heavily to the left when the offseason started, headlined by Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, and Wilyer Abreu. Trevor Story and Carlos Narváez swing right, but they were more useful than they were super impactful at the plate this year, leaving a conspicuous need for a thumper from the right side with Alex Bregman having hit free agency. Enter Contreras, whose acquisition shouldn’t affect the team’s pursuit of re-signing Bregman but will certainly cut into the impact that Triston Casas, who is coming off just 92 total games between 2024 and 2025 thanks to a pair of significant injuries, is likely to have next year.
In Contreras, the Red Sox are getting a valuable player on both sides of the ball. Moving from behind the plate to first base allowed Contreras to set a new career-high in plate appearances, and he was far better at first base than he’d ever been as a catcher. In his age-33 season, he showed no signs of slowing down, setting career highs in his barrel and hard-hit rates, and providing legitimate thump that should allow Alex Cora to split up the lefties at the top of the lineup — if they keep all the lefties, that is.
Trade rumors have swirled around Duran and Abreu all winter. Gold Glovers Rafaela and Abreu should start in center and right field, respectively, which leaves left field and DH for Duran and Anthony. That, in turn, creates an awkward situation for the lefty-hitting Masataka Yoshida, who would fill the unenviable role of “bench DH” if the season started today. But since it doesn’t, it stands to reason that Boston will look to move an outfielder before the season starts, assuming Yoshida himself is essentially untradeable. Moving Duran or Abreu would restock a farm system that chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has depleted over the course of the offseason, while also intensifying the need for another hitter like Bregman.
Effect on the Cardinals
The Cardinals’ selloff is now fully under way, with Contreras joining Sonny Gray in Boston, and they likely won’t be the last players shipped out of the Gateway to the West before spring training.
Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, and JoJo Romero have all had their names come up in trade rumors this offseason, and while only Arenado is virtually assured of starting the season elsewhere one way or another, the fact that the chatter keeps percolating signals one thing: Chaim Bloom is open for business in his first offseason leading the Cardinals’ front office.
That Bloom has prioritized pitching in both the Gray and Contreras trades provides an indication of where he feels the system is, even after drafting southpaw Liam Doyle in the first round this year. JJ Wetherholt is the blue-chipper of the organization and could be patrolling second or third base (depending on who else gets traded) early on in 2026, and Jimmy Crooks could get some run behind the plate with Iván Herrera spending more and more time at DH. In bringing in Dobbins and Richard Fitts, two arms who should help in 2026, as well as two further-away, higher-upside arms in Fajardo and Brandon Clarke, the pitching pipeline is in much better shape in St. Louis, in both the present and the future.
Athletics Acquire Jeff McNeil and cash from Mets for Yordan Rodriguez
- Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Deal
- Updated Athletics Roster Projection
- Updated Mets Roster Projection
- Updated Athletics Payroll Projection
- Updated Mets Payroll Projection
Effect on the Athletics
While the pitching staff is sorely in need of reinforcements beyond Mark Leiter Jr. (no offense to Mark, they just need a lot of pitching!), the A’s first big move of the offseason was to acquire McNeil to be their starting second baseman after eight seasons in Queens.
The 33-year-old’s output has taken many forms, from hitting for high averages without much power to hitting for lower averages with a little more pop, with one magical year (2019) in which he hit for both average and pop. After two below-average seasons, McNeil rebounded in 2025 with a career-high walk rate while bouncing around the diamond, spending most of his time at second base but also seeing extended time in center and left field. While he’s ostensibly the starting second baseman, that flexibility will be helpful to the A’s late in games or off the bench in games he isn’t starting.
Effect on the Mets
As Baumann so cleverly put it in his write-up’s headline, the Metsodus continues. The Mets are absolutely looking to contend in 2026 behind stars Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto, just with a roster that has almost completely turned over from those in years past.
The offense has seen the biggest reshaping thus far, with McNeil, Pete Alonso, and Brandon Nimmo gone from the nucleus of this year’s club, replaced (so far) by Marcus Semien and Jorge Polanco. As the roster currently stands, top prospect Carson Benge appears likely to earn significant playing time at or near the outset of 2026. But as you can see on the Matrix, the Mets have been connected to Cody Bellinger, who would cut into — but not eliminate, thanks to Bellinger’s versatility — Benge’s chances of making the Opening Day roster if he were to be signed.
You can read more of Eric Longenhagen’s scouting report on Rodriguez in Baumann’s write-up, but to summarize, while he’s certainly not very highly-regarded, he’s not a total non-prospect, either. The Mets kicking in $5.75 million (plus paying McNeil’s buyout if his 2027 option is declined) allowed them to get an intriguing arm back in the deal.
Reds Acquire Dane Myers from Marlins for Ethan O’Donnell
- Updated Reds Roster Projection
- Updated Marlins Roster Projection
- Updated Reds Payroll Projection
- Updated Marlins Payroll Projection
Effect on the Reds
The Reds were busy acquiring outfielders on Saturday, signing Bleday and trading for Myers. Like Bleday, Myers is a year removed from performing well with the bat. A former pitcher in the minors, Myers’ best trait is his throwing arm, and he covers a lot of ground in the outfield, too. Myers has one option year remaining, and if he makes the roster, he figures to spell Bleday against lefties. He isn’t a free agent until the conclusion of the 2029 season at the earliest.
Effect on the Marlins
O’Donnell was below average in his first taste of Double-A and doesn’t appear to be more than minor league depth for the Marlins. Super-utilityman Javier Sanoja can cover in center field when Jakob Marsee is off.
Jon Becker manages RosterResource's team payroll pages and assists with all other aspects of RosterResource, too. Follow him at your own peril on Twitter at @jonbecker_ and on BlueSky at @jon-becker.com.
The Orioles rotation, consisting in large part of injury question marks, is begging for a slam dunk workhorse like Framber Valdez. I don’t think he’s a perfect fit in the sense that iirc the infield defense last year was kind of crummy and he might be frequently working with a rookie catcher, but they’re at the point where they need an ace and can’t be choosy (or they can, but that might be curtains for 2026 if even one starter gets hurt).