Matrix Reloaded: December 5, 2025
Happy Friday, and welcome to this offseason’s first installment of the Matrix Reloaded column. There has already been plenty of activity ahead of the 2025 Winter Meetings, which kick off this Sunday in sunny (well maybe, I haven’t actually checked the weather yet, and also it doesn’t matter because I won’t be going outside) Orlando, Florida. Since this is my first roundup of the winter, let’s start with a refresher on how the Matrix works.
My precious, color-coded spreadsheet has plenty of tabs for your perusal, but my bread and butter is the main FA Matrix tab, which includes a self-explanatory summary of signings at the top and a somewhat less self-explanatory color-coded summary of rumors concerning unsigned players further down. The FA Legend tab right next door will be helpful in decoding it, but here I’ll note that what I classify as a rumor is fairly subjective, as the lines between things like “interested in,” “kicking the tires,” “have looked into,” and “believed to be interested in” are pretty blurry. All rumors are linked to each colored cell, and I encourage reading them for further context beyond how I’ve bucketed them into groups.
With all that out of the way, let’s get into the deals that actually have been completed in the last week or so. For larger moves, I’ll be hitting on three key points: how the deal affects the signing team; how it affects other teams; and how it affects similar players. For smaller deals, I’ll be more rapid-fire and talk only about the signing team; other teams aren’t going to react too strongly to a $2 million bench player inking a new deal.
Lastly, I always encourage discussion and disagreement here, because while this article is my space to opine, the comments are yours! I’ll weigh in as needed, as keeping my mouth shut isn’t my strong suit.
Significant Signings
Blue Jays Sign Dylan Cease for Seven Years, $210 Million (Approx. $189 Million Present Value) and Cody Ponce for Three Years, $30 Million
- Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Cease Deal
- Baumann’s Write-Up of the Ponce Deal
- Updated Roster Projection
- Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Blue Jays
Whether or not Cease is an ace has been a big topic of discussion ever since the signing broke, especially considering the sticker price; as you can see on the Total Spending Projection tab of the Matrix, the median contract prediction for Cease was six years and $168 million. But whether or not he’s an ace is immaterial considering that (a) nobody can even agree on what the definition of an ace is, and (b) the Jays are certainly paying him like something approaching an ace. They’ve evened that out by signing Ponce — who unequivocally pitched like an ace in the KBO — to a contract that could be a total bargain.
Adding arguably the best free agent starting pitcher and the most highly-regarded American who pitched in Asia this year makes Toronto’s rotation its greatest strength at this juncture, with Cease and Ponce joining Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, and José Berríos in a group that doesn’t just look settled, but overflowing. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that the Jays will look to move a starter this winter. Pitchers get hurt, and Bieber and Yesavage could each have some limitations, with the former in his first full season coming off Tommy John surgery and the latter having only thrown 41.2 innings in the majors, including the postseason.
Effect on Other Teams
There wasn’t a whole lot of pre-signing buzz about who else was in on Cease specifically, but we do know that there are plenty of other clubs looking for top-of-the-rotation type starters. Orioles baseball ops head Mike Elias has made clear on numerous occasions that he’s on the hunt for a front-of-the-rotation starter to pair with Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish for what could be a formidable front three. Elsewhere, the Cubs and Mets are among the teams that have been linked to the top remaining pitchers on the market, and from my vantage point, the Astros have an obvious need for a top-end starter to join Hunter Brown, but it’s unclear if they have room in the budget.
As for Ponce, he was something of a one-of-one on this market, with extremely high upside available for back-of-the-rotation prices. There isn’t a real pivot from him, but teams might look into other ex-major leaguers like Foster Griffin and Jon Duplantier, both of whom found success overseas and could be signed for a relative pittance.
Effect on Similar Players
This is where the present-value calculation of around $189 million for Cease comes into play. Yes, Cease (and the IRS, and the Canadian Revenue Agency, and his agents) will ultimately get $210 million from this, but the approximate number is what other free agents and teams will be looking at. With that figure in mind, this isn’t as shocking a deal for Cease as it looks on the surface when considering the aforementioned median prediction, and as such, this may only modestly increase the prices for Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, Tatsuya Imai, et al.
White Sox Sign Anthony Kay for Two Years, $12 Million
Effect on the White Sox
The South Siders entered the offseason with just one rotation spot filled: Rule 5 breakout and All-Star Shane Smith. Kay gives manager Will Venable and new pitching coach Zach Bove their second name to write in pen on the depth chart after Kay earned himself a major league deal coming off a sparkling season for Yokohama in NPB. The southpaw’s strikeout numbers still don’t jump off the page, but he got a ton of groundballs, so he’ll double as a nice test for young infielders Colson Montgomery and Chase Meidroth.
Effect on Other Teams
It’s not known who else was interested in Kay before he signed with the White Sox, but similar to Ponce, he’s got a real chance to prove he’s an absolute bargain. If he had shown anything close to his NPB performance in his previous MLB stint, he’d of course be earning quite a bit more money for 2026 and beyond.
Effect on Similar Players
As mentioned in the Ponce section, there are still a couple of potential MLB retreads out there in Foster Griffin and Jon Duplantier. Neither had quite as much buzz as Kay and especially not Ponce, but a two-year deal at $4 million or $5 million per year doesn’t seem completely out of reach considering what Ponce and Kay came off the board for.
Rays Sign Cedric Mullins for One Year, $7 Million and Jake Fraley for One Year, $3 Million
Effect on the Rays
Tampa quickly moved to re-sign Fraley after they non-tendered him; they may have just run out of time to come to a deal before the tender deadline. MLB Trade Rumors projected he’d earn $3.6 million through arbitration.
That made the decision to sign Mullins just a few days later surprising to me, as the Rays now have a glut of lefty outfielders in Mullins, Fraley, Josh Lowe, and Chandler Simpson, plus the switch-hitting Jake Mangum. Mullins is likely to be the starting center fielder, at least against righties, and Lowe should get the lion’s share of the time in right despite his below-replacement, injury-riddled 2025. That leaves everyone else fighting for time in left and against lefties (Mangum especially, along with righty Jonny DeLuca) — at least for now. This is the Rays we’re talking about here, so we can’t discount their willingness to trade anyone.
Effect on Other Teams
It’s always great for the structure of this roundup when Ken Rosenthal drops another team that was interested in Mullins the morning after the signing broke. The Marlins, like the Rays, have lefty outfielders aplenty, so their interest in Mullins also came as something of a surprise. But with Griffin Conine set to get reps at first base in spring training, they had room to fit Mullins in. If they aren’t wedded to the idea of a lefty swinger and are willing to give out a multi-year deal, Harrison Bader would be a great fit in Miami’s spacious outfield.
Effect on Similar Players
There’s not anyone particularly comparable to Mullins still on the market. Bader seems sure to get at least twice as many years and at least three times as much money, and Mike Yastrzemski has been better and more consistent than Mullins in recent years but isn’t viewed as a starting-caliber center fielder; he’s more of a corner guy who can fill in up the middle if needed. But Mullins going to a non-obvious team tips the supply-and-demand scale more in favor of the still-unsigned outfielders.
Top-End Relievers
In this section, I’ll go through each of the notable reliever signings, only looking at the effect on the signing team, and then zoom out to the impact on the league and other relievers.
Mets Sign Devin Williams for Three Years, $51 Million (Approx. $45 Million Present Value)
Effect on the Mets
In the very short-term, the effect is obvious: The Mets got a legitimately great closer at a bargain price, one so reasonable for a pitcher of Williams’ caliber that I’m frankly not sure why this deal got done this early, especially since it doesn’t contain any opt outs. In the longer term (the offseason as a whole), the Mets really, really want you to know that it means nothing regarding their desire to bring back Edwin Díaz. (I chose Puma’s post because he was the first Mets writer I thought of, not because he was actually first to report. There were no fewer than a half-dozen reporters sharing that same piece of information within five minutes of each other.)
That said, it gives the Mets a good bit of leverage against Díaz: We don’t need you that badly, because now we have Devin Williams. Williams-to-Díaz would be a tantalizing eighth/ninth inning combo, but having Williams affords the Mets the luxury of targeting different bullpen pieces now that they have a Proven Closer.
Orioles Sign Ryan Helsley for Two Years, $28 Million
Effect on the Orioles
Something like the Orioles’ first 12 priorities this offseason were (and are) pitching, so of course their first big move was to move starter Grayson Rodriguez for a rental left fielder in Taylor Ward. But they got back to what they really needed by inking Helsley, who will serve as Baltimore’s closer with Félix Bautista on the shelf for most or all of 2026. Helsley will join Andrew Kittredge in the back of the Orioles bullpen, but beyond that are a bunch of guys without track records, or who put up poor showings this year, or both. There’s plenty of room on both the roster and Baltimore’s payroll to add further, and it’s also possible that adding a couple of starters could push Tyler Wells to the ‘pen, where he has succeeded in the past.
Reds Sign Emilio Pagán for Two Years, $20 Million
Effect on the Reds
The Reds are taking the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” approach to their vacant closer role, bringing Pagán back on a healthy deal that also allows him to opt out after year one. (The median prediction for him was a repeat of his two-year, $16 million deal, so he did well for himself.) Pagán gives the Reds a very nice-looking, if unheralded, back four of the bullpen, as he joins Tony Santillan, Graham Ashcraft, and Connor Phillips. Sam Moll struggled this year and is the only lefty reliever on the 40-man, so that’s an obvious need with Brent Suter hitting free agency.
Cubs Sign Phil Maton for Two Years, $14.5 Million
Effect on the Cubs
The bullpen was a pressing matter for the Cubs entering the offseason. Andrew Kittredge was shipped off to the Orioles before his option decision was due, and key contributors Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar, and Drew Pomeranz entered free agency, along with filler arms Taylor Rogers, Michael Soroka, and Aaron Civale. Right now, Maton lines up to be the top setup man behind the flame throwing Daniel Palencia, but the veteran righty likely won’t be the last bullpen addition the Cubs make, and might not even the most expensive one. On the Matrix, they’ve been connected to Pete Fairbanks, who would probably push Palencia into more of a fireman role.
Effect of the Bigger Reliever Signings on Other Teams
Every offseason, more than half the league is in on relievers, and this year might be even more extreme, with previously more dormant teams like the Marlins and Tigers on the Matrix with connections to some of the top bullpen arms on the market. Even with Williams, Helsley, and Pagán off the board and expected as of now to serve as closers, there are plenty of high-leverage relievers for teams to sort through.
Effect of the Bigger Reliever Signings on Similar Players
To wit, there are still a handful of free agent relievers who recorded 20-plus saves this past season: Robert Suarez (40), Kenley Jansen (29), Edwin Díaz (28), and Kyle Finnegan (24). So if you’re a team looking for a Guy Who’s Been There, there are plenty of options.
Beyond the closers, Tyler Rogers, Shawn Armstrong, Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar, Sean Newcomb, Justin Wilson, Tyler Alexander, and Hoby Milner were all worth at least 1 WAR as relievers this year, and while they’re not all realistic high-leverage options, they proved their worth in a myriad of roles. With bullpens under the microscope at all times and a big group of clubs looking to improve, the agents of the relievers still available have good, ahem, leverage as they negotiate deals.
Rapid-Fire One-Year Deals
Dodgers Sign Miguel Rojas for $5.5 Million
The World Series hero is back for one last go-round, rejoining the Dodgers for his final season before retiring and joining the club’s player development staff. Similar to this year, he’ll serve as a bench bat/defensive replacement and get plenty of playing time against lefties, barring other moves.
Diamondbacks Sign James McCann for $2.75 Million
McCann had a mini-resurgence in 42 games with the Diamondbacks this year, posting his first above-average wRC+ since 2020. He’ll return to back up Gabriel Moreno and push Adrian Del Castillo to a DH/third catcher role, if not back to the minors.
Astros Sign Ryan Weiss for $2.6 Million
Weiss is no Cody Ponce, but he did become the first American to sign a major league deal after pitching in Korea without prior MLB experience since Merrill Kelly, who started the trend of career-rebuilding in the KBO. Weiss is a low-risk option for the Astros, who clearly need pitching. Hunter Brown is the only true lock for the rotation, with Weiss, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Jason Alexander, Spencer Arrighetti, Nate Pearson, AJ Blubaugh, and Colton Gordon among those competing for the back four spots.
Angels Sign Alek Manoah for $1.95 Million
I hope one day to love anyone as much as the Angels love adding former first rounders to their roster. Manoah was a mess in 2023, was slightly better but still only decent before getting hurt in 2024, and didn’t exactly inspire much confidence in the minors upon his return in 2025 before being waived by the Blue Jays and non-tendered by the Braves. It’s a perfectly fine dart-throw since Manoah can be optioned to the minors, but if the Angels have their sights set on him making 30 good-enough starts in 2026, I have a bridge to sell them.
Giants Sign Sam Hentges for $1.4 Million
Hentges lost about a season-and-a-half to shoulder and knee injuries, cutting short a great run as a leverage arm for the Guardians. From 2022 to 2024, the towering lefty put up a 2.93 ERA and 2.66 FIP in 138 innings, and if the Giants can get something even vaguely reminiscent of that out of him, $1.4 million is a bargain. He’s under club control via arbitration for 2027 too.
Guardians Sign Connor Brogdon for $900,000
Brogdon’s out of options and got a fully guaranteed deal, but for a major league team, $900,000 is basically nothing. The Guardians will see what they can get out of him in spring training before committing to him being in their Opening Day bullpen. Like Hentges, he wouldn’t hit six years of service time until the conclusion of the 2027 season.
Jon Becker manages RosterResource's team payroll pages and assists with all other aspects of RosterResource, too. Follow him at your own peril on Twitter at @jonbecker_ and on BlueSky at @jon-becker.com.
Oh hell yeah, it’s back