Matt Chapman Is Amazing
On June 15, the A’s lost to the Angels 8-4. For Oakland, it was their fourth consecutive loss, and it dropped them to a record of 34-36. At that point, the A’s were 11 games back of the Mariners, and while the underlying numbers suggested the standings should’ve been an awful lot closer than that, they weren’t, and there was little the A’s could do. You’ll remember it seemed like the AL playoff picture was already decided. The Mariners had a firm grip on the second wild card.
That race is now officially tied up. The A’s and the Mariners are both 18 games over .500. In the Mariners’ defense, it’s not like they’ve collapsed — since June 16, they’ve gone a mediocre 18-20. The A’s have gone a baseball-best 30-10. The Mariners have spun their wheels, while the A’s have caught fire. It looks like a coin flip the rest of the way. The playoff picture is settled no more.
How is it that the A’s have surprised as much as they have? How is it that baseball’s lowest opening-day payroll is currently tied for a playoff spot? Much credit has to go to the bullpen, led by Blake Treinen, Lou Trivino, and, now, Jeurys Familia. The bullpen has been incredible when it’s had to be. But as is always the case, this has been a team effort. Matt Chapman is a member of that team I’d like to bring to your attention.
Again, the credit goes all the way down. This hasn’t just been about Chapman and the bullpen. But Chapman is deserving of the spotlight right now, because he’s the best player the A’s have on their roster. Turns out he’s one of the best players anyone could have on their roster. Chapman has flown somewhat under the radar, because of where he plays, and because of what makes him so valuable, but if you want to understand the full Matt Chapman experience, allow me to take you back just a couple days.
On Tuesday, the A’s beat the Blue Jays. Here’s what Chapman did to Yangervis Solarte in the top of the fourth:
Chapman came out of nowhere to field the bunt. He got some help from Matt Olson — Olson is also good — but right there you can get a sense of Chapman’s athleticism. Here’s what Chapman did to Solarte in the top of the eighth:
Let’s just freeze that for a moment:
Getting to the ball was great; making the throw was extraordinary. That’s a play few third basemen could make. We’ll talk more about Chapman’s defense later on, but he also swings the bat. Here’s a ringing double, that Chapman hit 111 miles per hour:
And now here’s something more subtle. It’s Chapman on second. He’d reached on a walk. You see that there’s only one out.
Chapman scored easily. He scored so easily you wouldn’t think anything of it. But look where the ball came down in front of Dwight Smith Jr.:
That’s, I don’t know, about a body length. The ball looked like a hit, but it wasn’t a sure thing. Nevertheless, Chapman read it perfectly, allowing him to advance two bases instead of one. Good baserunning is hard to identify with your eyes, especially good baserunning of the non-stolen-base variety, but there, too, Chapman appears to excel. The more you look at him, the more you realize he’s good across the board.
Chapman specializes in defense. It’s not his only strength, but it is his strongest one. This year’s A’s do not have a terrific pitching staff, but they have allowed baseball’s lowest team BABIP. They’re fourth-lowest on the road, away from all that Oakland foul territory. According to Baseball Savant, the A’s have the second-biggest difference between wOBA allowed and expected wOBA allowed, hinting at positive defensive intervention. Chapman is just one of a number of defenders, but he’s the most obvious standout.
Let’s take this beyond just the present season. Chapman debuted around the middle of last year. Since the start of last year, 24 third baseman have played at least 1,000 innings at the position. Chapman has a ten-run lead over second place in Defensive Runs Saved per 1,000 innings. He has a five-run lead over second place in UZR per 1,000 innings. Taking the average of the two, he has about a ten-run lead again. By the measure we have, Chapman is baseball’s best defensive third baseman, and it’s not even particularly close.
Now let’s split seasons and cover a decade, going back to 2009. Since then, there have been 302 third baseman player-seasons with at least 500 innings at the position. By DRS per 1,000 innings, Chapman’s two seasons rank first and third-best. By UZR per 1,000 innings, they rank fourth- and 14th-best. Taking the average, they rank first and fourth. Chapman has played a little over the equivalent of one full season. The numbers don’t disagree on the matter of his defense being sensational; it’s more a matter of degree. Chapman seems like prime Manny Machado, or prime Nolan Arenado.
In terms of Chapman’s baserunning? We have a measure called UBR, which measures baserunning value outside of steals and double plays. Chapman doesn’t steal, but that doesn’t mean he’s not still a baserunning plus. Since the start of last year, out of everyone, Chapman ranks sixth in baseball in UBR. He’s sandwiched between Christian Yelich and Xander Bogaerts.
And, of course, there’s the bat. Chapman has 716 career plate appearances. He has a wRC+ of 121, which the Statcast numbers entirely support. More than that, Chapman appears to have improved from his rookie campaign — he’s trimmed five points off his strikeout rate, and he’s trimmed six points off his chase rate. Chapman is more dangerous than he already was, and he ranks among the higher peak exit velocities. He has tremendous power, and now he’s improved his bat-to-ball skills.
Forget 2018 alone. It matters, but let’s just look at everything we have. Chapman debuted in 2017, so, I pulled every player who’s batted at least 500 times since the season opener. Our WAR measure uses UZR for defense, so here are the top position players in WAR per 600 plate appearances:
| Player | UZR WAR/600 |
|---|---|
| Mike Trout | 8.7 |
| Jose Ramirez | 7.5 |
| Aaron Judge | 7.1 |
| Anthony Rendon | 6.4 |
| Mookie Betts | 6.3 |
| Jose Altuve | 6.2 |
| Matt Chapman | 6.0 |
| Francisco Lindor | 5.8 |
| Carlos Correa | 5.7 |
| Aaron Hicks | 5.4 |
That doesn’t necessarily mean that’s the best WAR, though. Some people prefer UZR, and some people prefer DRS. We know that neither is perfect. So here’s another, similar table, showing the same, but after swapping in DRS, and swapping out UZR:
| Player | DRS WAR/600 |
|---|---|
| Mike Trout | 8.9 |
| Matt Chapman | 7.8 |
| Jose Ramirez | 7.7 |
| Aaron Judge | 7.4 |
| Mookie Betts | 7.0 |
| Jose Altuve | 6.6 |
| Carlos Correa | 6.3 |
| Andrelton Simmons | 6.1 |
| Nolan Arenado | 6.1 |
| Francisco Lindor | 6.0 |
At last, you could argue the right move is to take both DRS and UZR, and then go with the average. Here are the top ten position players via that approach:
| Player | AVG WAR/600 |
|---|---|
| Mike Trout | 8.8 |
| Jose Ramirez | 7.6 |
| Aaron Judge | 7.2 |
| Matt Chapman | 6.9 |
| Mookie Betts | 6.6 |
| Jose Altuve | 6.4 |
| Carlos Correa | 6.0 |
| Anthony Rendon | 6.0 |
| Francisco Lindor | 5.9 |
| Nolan Arenado | 5.7 |
Matt Chapman, fourth place. Maybe your takeaway is about Mike Trout. These things pretty much always come back to Mike Trout. Matt Chapman isn’t as good as Mike Trout, because no one is as good as Mike Trout. But as the non-Trout category goes, Chapman belongs. Even if you don’t believe he’s as good as Ramirez, Judge, or Betts, the point is that he’s close. The point is that there’s statistical reason to believe he’s right there. Chapman is not the best player in baseball, but he has been one of them, almost from the get-go, because he’s a positive contributor in every way. He’s a defensive specialist who’s good at the other stuff too.
It’s perfectly fair to wonder whether Chapman’s defense is being accurately measured. It’s perfectly fair to wonder how long he might keep it up. But we do know, beyond almost any doubt, Chapman is an elite defender, and we know that has real value. We know his bat and baserunning also have value, and it looks like his hitting has only improved. Don’t worry about specific WARs and specific decimals. The numbers just help to inform the general conclusion — that conclusion being, Matt Chapman is one of the very best players. He’s not the whole reason why the A’s are where they are, but if you’re searching that roster for a superstar, consider that search concluded.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Reminds me of the trade value series when people chimed in about how Chapman didn’t belong where he was on the list, and I personally agreed… he belonged higher. Maybe it is where I am in the west coast, and how I cycle through a lot of Athletics games, but when you watch him you see that he is special. I don’t think its a stretch to say he is the best 3rd baseman in the game outside of Jram.
Knee jerk reaction was what about Nolan, but as always there is a Coors story. Hadn’t realized how big Arenado’s home/away splits are. Career OPS near 1.000 at home, 798 away (110 wrc+). Is the latter more indicative of true talent? For comparison, Chapman is 121 for career. Machado 120. (Chapman may have more room to get better since he’s got less MLB time under his belt, but Machado is only barely older despite 5 years more in the Show.)
Defense gives Chapman some separation, but 3b under 30 is a strong group (all wrc+ career).
– Bregman is at 132 on the basis of his insane year with the bat.
– Rendon is at 121 and somehow only 28. Not Chapman with the glove but very good.
– If Bryant (141 career, 129 this year) regains his power he’s right there too.
Agreed, which is why it is not a stretch:)
For Arenado it is more somewhere in the middle for what is indicative of true talent. It has been shown Rockies players have more trouble adjusting to road trips than any other team due to seeing more movement than they are conditioned for playing at Coors. This and the splits have been shown to contract much more towards a middle ground years after a player leaves Colorado.
Where exactly has that been shown? I’ve seen lots of studies on the matter and the majority show that there’s no effect on the road stats. So if you know of a newer study that proves your claim beyond a shadow of a doubt, then by a means post it.
There are dozens of reputable articles if you search for Coors Field Hangover Effect. Here’s one:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-cant-the-rockies-hit-outside-the-rockies/
One good place to start with queries like this is “www.Google.com”.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-cant-the-rockies-hit-outside-the-rockies/
The Reverse (or Inverse) Coors Effect …
https://www.purplerow.com/2015/10/5/9455919/park-adjusted-stats-and-the-inverse-coors-effect
https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/searching-for-a-coors-field-hangover-020615
https://www.purplerow.com/2014/5/15/5712224/the-numbers-are-lying
http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/Denver.html
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fg-on-fox-the-coors-field-hangover/ – You can argue this article as the Rockies teams are bad but masked by Coors but then that ignores the home W%.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-cant-the-rockies-hit-outside-the-rockies/
https://www.purplerow.com/2014/5/15/5712224/the-numbers-are-lying
I know Machado hasn’t played third very often this year, but since he has with the Dodgers, let’s looks at another defensive metric to demonstrate the separation between Machado’s defensive greatness and Chapman’s above average defense at third.
Inside Edge keeps a stat on how many “impossible” plays a fielder makes every year.
From 2013-2017, Machado’s numbers read like this: 7, 17, 13, 7, 17.
Chapman: 2017: 2 2018: 7.
No comparison. Machado makes extraordinary plays. Chapman does too, but far fewer times.
Maybe it’s my Orioles bias, but when a HOFer like Brooks Robinson says that Machado made plays during his tenure as an Oriole that he could never make, that says something about how special Manny was in his prime.
In how many opportunities? Is making hard plays even the most important thing for defensive prowess?
You don’t need to measure DRS if your third baseman makes “impossible” plays to prevent base runners from getting into scoring position. So yes, making not merely “hard” but “impossible” plays matters.
Context silly! Your missing large parts of it.
“Impossible plays” matter as far as they help take runs off the board, which is what DRS and UZR attempt to measure. Your argument boils down to “Forget how effective each player is, just focus on which one has the better highlights.”
Does it? Maybe you should read the comment over.
I never said anything more than IMO Machado makes the extremely difficult plays more frequently than Chapman. That’s all.
Chapman is a fine and effective player, no doubt.
But before downvoting my comment, try reading exactly what is said and what is not.
Inside Edge defines “impossible” plays as something that have a nearly 0% chance of happening.
Are their numbers reliable? Is UZR? There’s a lot of controversy about the utility of that metric also.
actually, he just makes them more difficult than Chapman would look, that’s why he makes more “extremely difficult” plays
It’s absolutely your Orioles bias. Just because another player is great doesn’t mean it’s a slight against your player who is also great. Before hhisinjury, pace to challenge the single season DRS record as a third baseman. He’s really good, he’s probably the best defender in baseball.
This article isn’t a slight against Machado, no need to throw the cape on.
I don’t see where I said the article is a “…slight against Machado.”
And I don’t even know what the expression “throw the cape on” means. Perhaps that’s because I’m 62 and not familiar with urban slang anymore.
As I said with Shanti: IMO Machado has made more extremely difficult plays at third more often than Chapman, that’s all.
I’m really a big fan of Chapman too, or I wouldn’t have him on my team in a dynasty league.
Whoa, slow down there buddy… They’re called “impossible” plays for a reason – no one makes them. You simply read the number of balls hit to Machado that are CLASSIFIED as impossible… he caught 0 out of 61 from ’13 – ’18, cause they’re IMPOSSIBLE.
However, for fun, both players are studs on plays labeled “remote” (plays that have a 1% to 10% chance of being made):
Machado’s made plays on 12 of 124 “remote” balls in ’12-’18
Chapman’s made plays on 5 of 28 “remote” balls in ’17-’18.
For context, the always defensively-solid Rendon has made 4 of 81 “remote” ball plays dating back to ’13.
cherry pi: thanks for the clarification. I stand corrected.
In the future I will only make comments on FG when I’m not under the influence of my neuropathy medication. (And that’s only a few hours every day.) It makes my vision blurry, despite using the zoom feature.
There was no need to interject the initial comment anyway. It was way off topic.
It’s just that I’ve seen Machado make other worldly plays at third and I let my enthusiasm for his extraordinary play at the hot corner get the best of me.
Several years ago, FG posted a piece (was it August Fagerstrom?) asking fans: are you a batting, pitching or fielding nerd?
I’m definitely a fielding nerd. When I was young and still playing baseball, I never pitched. I was a poor hitter—probably because of my lazy left eye. But I was speedy enough to run down lots of flyballs in the OF.
That’s why I get so excited by remarkable fielding plays and Machado supplied his fair share during his time in Baltimore.
I’m sad to see him go. But because the Orioles organization has finally recognized the need for a total rebuild (IMO, they should’ve traded Machado in December when he would’ve brought back a greater haul in prospects), just like when we lost Mike Mussina—my favorite Orioles starter— I’m happy that he’s playing for a better organization. I hope he gets to shine on the biggest stage this fall: the World Series.
And I reiterate: I’m a big fan of Chapman too.
I guess I’ll have humble pie for breakfast. 🙂
Vic: No worries buddy. And thanks for sharing! I definitely stand with you as a fielding nerd, especially now that I’m getting into slow-pitch softball where almost EVERYTHING gets put into play lol).
Also, your Machado enthusiasm is definitely deserved. As a lifetime Dodger fan (and someone who lost a lot of sleep in late October), I appreciated it! 🙂
Check the stats again. Both Machado and Chapman have never made an impossible play as defined by inside edge. Nor has any other player. The numbers you are stating are impossible opportunities they had each year. The 0% next to them is their success rate.
Arenado gets a lot praise because of his defense, one of the top notch in the game now and in the history of the game. General public only see the offensive stats when someone is discussed as the greatest player. Arenado’ offense is great and people automatically say Coors that Coors this. But even if you remove Arenado’s coors stats and multiply his road stats by 2 to get full season average, he is still one of the best 3rd basemen. His defense is as valuable as his offense, if not more than offense.
Chapman’s offensive and defensive production is on par with Manny Machado, back when we were wondering if he was the 2nd best player in the game. I think Ramirez is almost certainly #2 at this point, but it’s crazy to think we could be looking at a guy as good as Judge, Betts, Machado, or Lindor.
That throw is insane
Solid article for those of us who aren’t aware of Chapman. But statistically speaking he’s not among the top tier of all around baseball players. 1 stolen base this season? below .270 average? 13 HR’s? Certainly gold glove caliber defensively from what I see in this article, but he’s far from a spectacular offensive player. Not quite adding up in terms of being in the convo with Betts, Ramirez, Judge, or even Machado.
you realize you’re on FanGraphs right?
meaning you’re supposed to look at way more than batting average and home runs to determine offensive value
Ok. The article points out Chapmans wRC+ and UBR as advanced metrics to indicate his prowess beyond stellar defense. But in wRC+, he ranks 30th while Betts, Judge and Rameriz are in the top 5. And yes, I place a stronger value on stolen bases over UBR. Mookie Betts and Mike Trout aren’t even listed in the top 30 in UBR, yet Trey Mancini is listed as number 6. I’m an O’s fan: I’d find it hard to believe any credible manager in the MLB would take Manchini over Betts on the base paths. Once Chapman reaches first base with his solid 11% walk rate, he’s not even a threat to advance into scoring position off of a steal. It’s simply a stretch to weigh UBR as a significant argument builder over stolen bases. Just because stolen basis doesn’t require fancy calculations doesn’t mean it should be seen as less value.
Remember, the basis of the article is that Chapman is on Betts, Ramerez and Judge’s level. His offensive production overall proves that he is well behind those players. And it’s hard to argue that his defensive wizardry closes the gap that drastically considering the fact that all three of those players are gold glove candidates at their positions (even though RF carries less defensive value). The point is, Rex Chapman should not quite be considered a top tier level of MVP player.
“Remember, the basis of the article is that Chapman is on Betts, Ramerez and Judge’s level.”
Well, no, you’ve misread it. Jeff says, “Even if you don’t believe he’s as good as Ramirez, Judge, or Betts, the point is that he’s close. The point is that there’s statistical reason to believe he’s right there.”
For Jeff (and many here), the “point” is not that the statistical case is definitive by itself. The point is the dialogue between what the statistics suggest and what we may “find it hard to believe.”
He’s actually making your point, except it’s a better, more worthwhile version of your point: that, regardless of what we may perceive independently of advanced statistics, and even regardless of what may be ultimately true, Chapman *has a case* for being considered in that top, non-Trout tier, and that we should allow the tension between the advanced statistics and our own perceptions to further refine, however minutely, our criteria for determining who is truly elite. It’s an argument that only works if Jeff concedes the possibility *that there are other cases to be made* in the first place.
I agree with the conclusion, though Rex Chapman was a pretty good basketball player in his day.
dude the only reason he doesn’t steal is cause they don’t let him. He’s SURELY fast enough and definitely has the acumen to do it. He just messed up like a couple times and got banned form trying
you’re making the false assumption that they’re all “gold-glove” candidates at the same defensive level. they’re not.
Read. The. Damn. Article.
If your definition of “all-around baseball player” is “hits, homers, and stolen bases” then we have nothing further to discuss.
‘If your definition of “all-around baseball player” is “hits, homers, and stolen bases” ‘
MY definition of all-around baseball player is Mike Trout. Your mileage may vary.
I also hear he has an ugly girlfriend. Ugly girlfriend means no confidence.
CON/600
CON/600+ (I will not go into how you adjust confidence for social geography)
Who’s Fabio?
I know we try real hard to ignore traditional baseball card stats here but… Projections have him ending with 21 HR and about 60 RBI… 132wRC+ is good for 28/29th in the MLB so far.
Let’s look at defensive stats. Most of Chapman’s value is coming from RngR.
Marcus Semien is also now apparently a defensive star, if we are going along with this. Chapman is #1, Semien after 3 years of being mediocre at best in the field, is a tick below Simmons and Iglesias for UZR, but overall 2nd in RngR to Chapman by a wide margin??
Not saying Chapman is not a great defender, but doesn’t it seem more likely the A’s infield positioning has figured something out that boosts their RngR ratings compared to others? Even Matt Olsen is 3rd for 1B in RngR and 24th overall. I’d venture to say they’re up to something in Oakland and you’re overrating Chapman saying he’s among the top 6-10 players in the game.
Jim Lahey – you must be back on the booze. Chapman is a beast.
The thing that Oakland figured out was Matt Chapman. The reason Marcus Semiens numbers have gone up is because, according to statcast, he plays closer to second base than almost anyone in the league. He struggled going to his right, and now the plays to his right are well within his play making sphere, and he gets additional plays to his left that no other SS can get to.
And the reason Marcus can play in advantageous position? Matt Chapman, who plays deeper than any full time 3b in baseball.
It was insane a couple of days ago the infield was playing in no bunt with 3 on the grass and then theres chapman at his normal spot because he can. You didnt even show his best play to the right this week. He snagged one in foul territory at the back edge of the infield and made a spin throw to first in time from behind the 3rd base coaches box. The dude is fucking insane at 3B.
If this is the case then shouldn’t UZR be accounting for that? If Semien only appears to be a plus defender this year because he has a generational defensive talent playing next to him, shouldn’t Chapman be getting that credit and not Semien? I was under the impression UZR actually did account for this kind of thing.
I’m an A’s fan, and like Semien, but Semien’s rating this year confuses me a bunch. @Towel ‘s comment above seems like the best explanation of this I’ve heard so far.
I definitely believe sharing the infield with Chapman (range) and Olson (receiving) has improved Semien’s metrics a ton.
Olson has also been a huge godsend to Semien’s defense, given his reach and crazy picking ability to salvage errant throws.
But let that not take away from the key point: Chapman is ridonkulous at the hot corner. I hope Oakland can convince him to sign an extension…
RE: extension
Chapman’s a Boras client… 🙁
And Oak is getting a new park allowing them to afford him if they dont have non arb years to factor into annual contract salary if they arnt buying out FA seasons till the new park opens.
“And Oak is getting a new park”
I’ll believe that when I see a shovel in the ground.
Look at Semiens stats by year he was terrible in 2016 yes but has steadily improved every season since, and is still young enough you wouldnt expect age related defensive decline yet.
most of Chapman’s excellent defense comes from good feet, fast release and a beast of an arm.
Semien has always had good range; it was the errors dragging down his defense
i’ve often wondered if Chapman being so incredible defensively is the reason for Semien’s defensive outburst. And something that increases the stats for all the A’s defenders is Olson’s ability to pick balls @ first.
Nope, Olson has been covering for Semien’s trash defense all year, to the point where the metrics are saying Semien is actually decent now (he’s not – its 100% Olson – take Olson away and Semien is bad again).
Cept he has been good defensively since before Olson started playing first at the end of last year. He had positive defensive ratings from 2016-17 throwing to Alonso.
He has been good since Wash fixed him after his first season in OAK. It could be argued he has slipped offensively since he started focusing on D since his batting has never been up to where it was, but he has been a positive defender since his second season in OAK.
that’s not how it works lol, being realistic almost all 1B can pick it there, it looks cool and all but it’s the minimum criteria to be playable there
Ivous Ilanak tells us, those who are not aware of evil. But statistically, this is not a high-level baseball game. The stolen base of this season? Sub. Average 270? Thirteen hours? Of course, the yellow glove of what I see in Ilam, but it’s far from a spectacular attack. He does not meet the conditions to stay in touch with Paris, Ramirez, judges or even Machado.
These haven’t been funny for a couple years now.
He was hurt for a couple weeks, and returned from the disabled list after one rehab game because his defense makes the team better even if he isnt hitting. As could be assumed he flailed for a few games before he started hitting again, and lately he has been squaring the ball up insanely well. I wouldnt be surprised if he was in the top 3 leaders in exit velocity in july.
Also, he does this in infield practice…
https://twitter.com/joeserrato/status/1024810169337663489
*that’s chappie*
Toronto Blue Jays Front Office, 2020: “What if we offered you Devon Travis, Richard Urena, and a pair of back-end arms for his arbitration years?”
(turns to rest of office): “He said he’s not falling for that again…”
I think the Jays have other plans for 3rd base.
I’m stunned they fell for it the first time.
As an A’s fan I can vouch that Chapman does something astonishing on defense about every other game. Last year, especially, his ability to take screaming shots down the line and convert them into double plays on a regular basis was simply astonishing.
And early on we noticed that his speed and baserunning skills were way better than the scouting reports had suggested. After fumbling along with Semien at the top of the order for much of the year, suddenly having Martini and Chapman hitting 1-2 looks beautiful. (Plus we can go Left-Right-Switch-Right handed slugger-Left handed slugger. If you like that sort of thing.)
Another factor in Semien’s improved defense (along with positioning which accounts for Chapman’s range and mitigates his shortcomings) is that Olson is fantastic picking the ball at First. Semien has learned to make mistakes low, and that’s cut down on his throwing errors. Olson was also a pitching prospect coming out of HS so he’s got a strong arm and he’s great at starting the 3-6-3, or nailing aggressive runners at third.
After suffering years of Plouffe, Valencia, Butler to be blessed with two headstrong young men in Oly and Chappie is a blessing. Our success this year was always depending on how good they could be, both have exceeded expectations
Brandon Inge baby he could pick em!
Olson is a defensive positive by the numbers who is rated negative by positional adjustment as well!
Melvin should have been fired for his horrific lineup construction and bullpen decisions a long time ago, its RC’s time, he’s already managed all these guys in the minors, let him have it.
Semien’s defense has not “improved” in the slightest, only change was Olson full time at 1B, it’s ALL Olson, Semien is a well below avg SS that the A’s need to replace ASAP if they want to do damage in the postseason. He’s really bad at baseball in general and a headcase to boot.
So your claiming all this stuff based on what info dude? Look at Semiens player page ffs look what his defense has been before and after Olson arrived. Im pretty sure he was positive in 2016 since you know his numbers are right there to work with. But yeah forest gumps talkin out his ass. Melvin can be dinged for bullpen usage he tends to show faith in his pitchers while leaving them in to long, and he has left pitchers in to long since he showed up its his one strategic failing. Although you might argue that his faith in the pitchers gives them confidence I still blame him for leaving Lester in in the 8th after he had given up 3 and was up in pitch count in the wild card game in 2014. His usage in that wildcard game is exactly Melvins Achilles heel, but considering how good he is at communicating with players Im cool with the trade off. Plus right now its hard to leave relievers in to long when your bullpen is all closer quality guys that are interchangeable.
As an A’s fan I am extremely thankful for Matt Chapman, thankful for a lot of things about this team. I don’t know where this journey will go but it has been one heck of a ride and after some extremely bitter pills to swallow finally there is a team to be proud of.
For me the turning point of this season and when the team really became a team was after the unfortunate passing of Piscotty’s mom. I think the team really wore it with him, at the time I thought Piscotty was done but a couple days later he plays a baseball game in Boston, pulls a big moment and the rest is now history.
To me these guys reflect and represent Oakland perfectly, extremely proud of this team from Matt Chapman to even the recently demoted Fowler. Down the final fairway now and I am excited to see where it takes us.
Your post rang a bell for me. “Gee, it must be hard to play baseball when your mom is dying. I wonder how he did after that.”
Here are his monthly splits:
https://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=13367&position=OF&season=2018
His mom passed in early May. He was terrible in May. But look at that, there’s a wRC+ of 148 in June and 150 in July. He has been in beast mode.
I imagine it was hard, watched him spring, april and may and he looked a shell of a man perhaps coming to terms with the fact that his mother was not going to make it. by that stage she had regressed in health. I was calling for him to be given indefinite leave because the game of baseball is not what he needed then.
I felt after the news, he would be out of the game for a while but he came back 2 days after and did something that I think was such a strong statement, it became what really turned this team around.
I am also trying to understand what the Lucroy/Treinen point to the sky thing is all about after they close out the game, never saw Treinen do it before.
As a hardfan I expected the team to fade, the pitching is not great and we don’t have the talent other teams have but what these guys lack in talent they make up in character.
I was also firmly in the camp that Piscotty needed to deal with what he was dealing with off the diamond. Honestly, I can’t imagine it couldn’t have helped his mental state to sucking so terribly while all that was going on. I always figured he’d rebound once he could put this behind him, but I had no idea he’d rebound this far. He’s been flat out amazing and it isn’t a flukey, high-BABIP induced hot streak. I think his improvements are largely real.
On the flip he was living at home with her and she got to see him play ball which I remember people talking about. Baseball might have been a good way to take his mind off things and deal with them. He was in 25 man therapy to help him through.
Making no judgments on it, Treinen is pretty religious, so that might explain his gesture.
Must be impossible to play while your mother is slowly dying. I’m surprised he played as well as he did.
Team was already trying to extend him this offseason and I assume will push really hard to in the next. His first prospective FA season would be season 0 or 1 in the new ballpark according to the team timeline.
I’m a Mets fan and I must admit/apologize, but I have hopped on your bandwagon. I’m definitely falling for Matt & Matt the most, and there’s something to be admired about a team actually valuing defense. The A’s are like the anti-Mets, and it’s lovely. So, sorry if my publicly announcing this tanks your season. I fully understand (and expect) to be blamed if everything suddenly falls apart.
we’re glad to have you.
Great piece! Tacking on (and I’ll use bWAR for variety), for 2017-18 combined, Chapman ranks:
— 12th in total WAR for position players.
— 4th in WAR/game for those with 150+ games (after Trout, Ramirez & Betts).
His baserunning stats are terrific. He’s taken an extra base on a teammate’s hit in 65% of his chances, including scoring from second on 15 of 17 singles (without being thrown out). Reads and want-to mean as much as speed there.
He is really quick he just doesnt have great breaks and reads yet, but Ricky will fix that before long. I wouldnt be surprised at all if he swipes 15-25 bags a year a couple years from now with his straight line wheels, and that would be a 5 tool stud who can crush it or score on a single while shutting down innings on D.
That’s “Rickey”
I have been telling people who ask that he’s basically Scott Rolen. I’m sticking with that except to say that I think Chapman is even better defensively.
Timely article for me. I’ve only worn one player’s jersey ever in my life. That player was Rickey Henderson. There have been many good to great players come through Oakland since, but on Monday morning I ordered a Matt Chapman jersey. He is a great baseball player. When you watch him every day, you become amazed with his abilities. He is quick and fast and skilled. He has power. His approach at the plate is getting better each week. He will have his moment in a playoff series sometime in the next couple of years where the national audience will see it…and then he’ll be a star.
Its so funny to look and listen to him where he is like a 16 year old with a Mans body who can only grow a sad puberty stash if he doesnt shave at all for weeks.
Hey, Rickey is the only other A’s jersey I’ve ever had either.
Here’s to our Chaptain!
Peak Eric Chavez.
Better.
Way better
It’s a no contest, Chavez was “pretty darn good” Chapman is better than Brooks Robinson by a long way.
This sounds ridiculous, but it spurred my curiosity.
Chapman (2017-2018): 121 wRC+, +15 UZR/150, 6.0 WAR/600
Robinson (1962-1968): 121 wRC+, +20 Defense Runs/150, 5.3 WAR/600
Chapman over a year and a little bit has been sort of similar to Brooks in his arbitrarily defined 7 year prime, with about half the WAR/600 difference being Base Running, and half being Replacement Level and League Level. Basically Matt is off to a good start.
I can’t claim expertise on fielding stats, but both eye test and range factor scream WOW. His RF/9 is 3.40 both years, both tops in MLB, where the 3B avg is 2.64.
Random aside: With the A’s at 64-46 through 8/1, MLB’s top 5 records all live in the AL. No league ever had the top 5.
AL also has the three worst records. And head-to-head, the NL is winning 115-96.
Wasn’t claiming AL superiority per se. And yes, it looks like the NL will snap their 14-year interleague losing streak.
It’s hard not to agree.
I think the most amazing thing about Chapman’s defense is the fast release and timing on his throws. Time and again he gets to a very difficult ball and almost instantly releases what looks like a relatively weak off-balance throw which gets the runner by less than a step. He’s like never late. He seems to always know exactly how much time he has even though he doesn’t have any time to calculate it.
Chapman traded to the Braves in 3…2…
You can send us Acuna, Riley and one of those interesting arms
3 arms you want to make us jump off a cliff you have to incentivize it.
And buried in the story is that Rendon is also one of the best players in MLB (and few discuss him). I hope the Nats sign him long-term rather than Harper. They can’t do both.
Why can’t they?
Harper will cost at least $250 million. Rendon probably $100-120 million. I don’t think the Lerners are willing to pay nearly $400 million to two players, esp. with the money they have tied up in Scherzer and Strasburg.
Then they should replace themselves with more substantial owners.
Matt Chapman’s defense is clearly out-of-this-world good. According to the SABR Defensive Index (SDI), he is way out in front of all others. His SDI was 17.2 in the first half of 2018. Number two in all of MLB is Kolten Wong at 10.7. Alex Gordon is second in the AL with a 10.6 SDI.
The full list can be found at https://sabr.org/sdi/2018-07-15
This is a great piece, but I have to disagree with the subheadline. The AL has only 1 MVP candidate and has for years. Jeff even kind of makes that case within this very piece.
I keep waiting for what I believe to be his signature move: playing SS deep in the shift, hitter bunts down the 3B line, Chapman somehow gets to the ball almost instantly, then challenges the hitter to a footrace to 1B, where he wins. He hasn’t technically pulled this off yet, but he has come close, and flipped to Olson.
Matt Olson might be one of the best defensive 1B I’ve ever seen too, although the metrics are hard to discern, but watching him pull horrendous throws from Semien and Lowrie and Barreto out from certain errors literally every game has been mind blowing all year. If Oakland had an even league average SS who rarely bounced throws (Semien bounces at least one a game, for no reason, the plays aren’t even difficult, other than he stinks at this aspect of the game), they’d have taken 1st place from Houston by now.
Okay…hold on a minute.
Agree Semien bounces a number of throws, and it would look worse without Olson receiving (although Alonso was also really good there), but Semien has 5 throwing errors this year. That would be really, really unlikely to swing the standings.
Add to this that Semien in 7th in WAR in the AL, and league average at the position isn’t gonna move the needle very much.
Yeah Gump is just a broken record talking out his ass about Semien sucking!
He has lot more value in Real Baseball than fantasy baseball.
I suppose one could easily argue that his value is a bit more volatile given that at least in a relative sense we measure the value of offense better than defense and some of defensive value is based on opportunity (you can’t rob someone of a homerun if you don’t have balls hit that would just barely clear the fence by you) while you will get plate appearances. But the article isn’t trying to say he is the nth best player, just that he is great and looks to be improving on offense. Not sure why people would quibble with that.
Well written and the conclusion is completely reasonable. Also, interesting to see the polarity in the comments. I believe he will be “underrated” until he has a truly breakout offensive season (which could honestly be this year if he continues at his recent pace) given that many of us think from a FBB / offense only skew.
That being said (and I know the eye test isn’t the proper way to judge a player), I watch a ton of As games and he comes across to me as a gold glove defender and a mildly above average, albeit streaky, hitter.
To further that case xStats suggests he has been over performing slightly…
Real stats: 270 / 360 / 478 / 13 HRs
xStats: 267 / 357 / 440 / 12 HRs
Also, his barrel percentage and FB% are down, while his GB% is up (all from last year). Not necessarily trends you want to see in a developing power hitter.
In conclusion: his defensive metrics put him at the top in terms of best all around players, while his offense is a WIP. His approach and power potential suggest to me that he has elite offensive upside, that he’s yet to reach.
Amazing player in real life.
And in re-draft FBB leagues he’s above average for the time being.
Dynasty, I’m all in as a guy who could be perennial top 5 for a long time (in most settings).