Max Muncy Did Something He Had Never Did Before
Max Muncy hit a lot of home runs this year. Including his opposite-field effort on Monday against Colorado, he hit 35 of them overall. Not only will that total rank him 14th forever among major leaguers from the 2018 campaign, it will also represent the greatest improvement for a batter between last season and this one. This year, Muncy hit 35 home runs. Last year, he hit zero of them. Arithmetic suggests that he produced a net total of +35 by this very specific measure. A perusal of the leaderboards reveals that no batter rivals him in this regard. Among the many ways in which Muncy’s 2018 season was exceptional, that’s one of them.
The purpose of this post, however, is not to catalog all the unlikely exploits of Muncy’s 2018 campaign, but rather to examine one specific way in which Muncy’s home run on Monday was different than all the others he’s ever hit. To understand the significance of that homer, though, it’s necessary first to contemplate another, different homer.
That’s footage of Muncy, tying the score against the Mariners’ Edwin Diaz in the ninth inning of an August 18th game this season. Edwin Diaz was one of the best relievers in baseball this year. Part of what makes Diaz so effective is his arm speed. Diaz threw this fastball to Muncy at 98 mph, as the hastily edited screencap below indicates.
The raw Statcast data actually reports the velocity of that pitch at 98.4 mph. The precise measure isn’t important. What’s important is this: of the 51 pitches Muncy had ever faced before today thrown at a velocity of 98 mph or higher, this particular pitch from Edwin Diaz is the only one on which he had ever homered — or, the only one on which he had ever homered as a major leaguer.
As one might have already anticipated, however, the phrase “before today” is intensely relevant to the present document. Before I address why that is, consider this video footage of Muncy’s fifth-inning home run this afternoon against the Rockies’ German Marquez:
German Marquez was one of the best starters in baseball this year. Part of what makes Marquez so effective is his arm speed. Marquez threw this fastball to Muncy at 99 mph, as the hastily edited screencap below indicates.
The raw Statcast data really does report the velocity of that pitch at exactly 99.0 mph — which means that, according to the information available to one sad man sitting at one kitchen table in New England, what one finds here is the fastest pitch on which Muncy has ever homered. What one finds, moreover, is that it occurred in a game that had no business existing on a day fashioned by chaos.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
don’t be sad Cistulli, life is a highway without exit ramps named after your father
His highway likely entails tons of deceased squirrels due to how crazy they are up in NH.
Muncy also had a single off a 103 mph pitch from Jordan Hicks, the fastest pitch that anyone got a hit off of this year, at least through August 20. https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/1031774157355155456
It’d be interesting to know whether incredibly-fast-fastball hitting is a skill, the way people at least seem to think general fastball hitting is.
I believe it is treated as such. For instance, when players age, people will say how their bat has slowed down, and they have to “cheat” and guess the location and try to pull everything. Bat speed is a skill and pitch recognition is a skill, and together I would think those would combine to correlate highly with skill at hitting heat. And conversely you would probably expect a guy with good pitch recognition but a slow bat or poor bat control to be comparatively better at hitting (or laying off) offspeed pitches.
I’m reminded Josh Hamilton, where it was like, why would you ever throw him a fastball? I may be misremembering but I feel like there have been a number of sluggers with that profile.
I’d almost think the Josh Hamilton “dead-red fastball hitter” type would be defined by the combination of good bat speed and slightly subpar (for MLB) pitch recognition. A big step above the “guess hitter” kind of fastball hitting but the same basic idea. But with the Muncy thing, if it’s a skill, there has to be something more than just top-tier bat speed — the ability to get the barrel of the bat on a pitch at 103 involves the eye-hand part of the pure contact-hitting skill, too. Maybe it’s as simple as that: top-tier bat speed plus above-average contact hitting ability.
“Arithmetic suggests that he produced a net total of +35 by this very specific measure.”
And simple arithmetic progression suggests that Muncy will hit 70 home runs next year.
Hey, it could happen.
Or it could also suggest he will hit 0 next year.
I’m more interested in the +35 difference in HRs from 2017-18. Where does this rank all-time in seasonal HR improvements?
From the 500-HR club, 30 or more:
McGwire 1987 46
McGwire 1998 46
Killebrew 1959 42
Mays 1954 41
Williams 1946 38
Pujols 2001 37
Thome 2006 35
A Rodriguez 2015 33
Killebrew 1969 32
A Rodriguez 1996 31
Williams 1939 31
Sheffield 1992 31
Sosa 1998 30
McGwire 1995 30
Some selected others:
Greenberg 1937 39
Piazza 1993 34
Gehrig 1927 31
Greenberg 1946 31
Dunn 2012 30
I’m sure somebody with a database can get a more complete list but this should be most of them.
Even with drugs McGwire topping this list twice more than a decade apart is pretty amazing.
Mays, Williams, and Pujols top Muncy for having had zero in the previous year – Pujols’ rookie year and Mays and Williams were out the previous years for military service.
A few that I looked up that also top +30:
Cecil Fielder 1990 51
Jose Bautista 2010 41
Cody Bellinger 2017 39
Ryan Howard 2006 36
Brady Anderson 1996 34
Greg Vaughn 1998 32
Larry Walker 1997 31
Fielder and Bellinger also top Muncy for having zero the previous year.
(Fielder played in Japan in 1989,and had only 9 in mlb in 1988.)
Not to take away from McGwire’s ’87, but from ’97 to ’98 he only went +12. I think you’re only including his Cards HRs from ’97, but he hit 34 for the As that year too.
Still, that’s a pretty impressive list.
Yep, misread that one, thanks.
Aaron Judge 2017 was +48.
I’m interested in how often a player has led the league in HR without a qualifying number of PA. Muncy didn’t quite make it, but was close.
It has never happened and, to my knowledge, Muncy’s being 3 off the pace is the best in history. The three others I can think of are Giancarlo Stanton in 2012 (37 hr in 501 pa — Ryan Braun hit 41), Javy Lopez in 2003 (43 hr in 495 pa — Jim Thome hit 47), and Hank Aaron in 1973 (40 hr in 465 pa — Willie Stargell hit 44).
….’He Had Never DONE Before’
Who shall edit the editor?
The editor is too busy hastily editing screencaps
Manx Munxy
Really fun post, Carson. A great example of one of the reasons I’m a Fangraphs member: great writing based on solid facts about a sport I love, enhanced by informative graphics, whether or not they be hastily edited. Thanks. Fangraphs makes my workday survivable.
I am now putting my money *figuratively* (maybe also literally but I’ll never tell) where my mouth is and re-upping my FanGraphs membership due to the increase in Cistullian content. Thank you! Great read and great work.