(Maybe) Predictive Stats for Three More College Conferences

Over the past month-plus, the author has published each week a statistical report designed to serve as a nearly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, have enthusiasm for collegiate baseball, if not actually expert knowledge of it. Those posts have served as a means by which one might broadly detect which players have produced the most excellent performances of the college season.

Because organizing the data for those posts is a bit time-consuming and also because (as I say) my familiarity with college baseball is in its nascent stages, I’ve previously confined those Maybe Predictive posts to three of the most notable conferences: the ACC, Pac-12, and SEC. Since I began publishing them, however, more than one reader has asked for coverage of this or that conference — and as I’ve become more familiar with the game, I’ve wanted that same thing, as well.

What follows is a step in that direction. Included below are the top college players by (maybe) predictive stats for three additional and competitive baseball conferences: the Big 10, Big West, and Missouri Valley. Note that it’s not my intention to suggest that these are certainly the next three best conferences by talent. Note also that it would probably make sense to include the Big 12 here, but the data is even more difficult to access from that conference’s home page.

As in the original edition of this same thing, what I’ve done is utilize principles introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.

To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: MPS+* for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and MPS-* (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.

*Short for (maybe) predictive stats.

Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in three different conferences each: top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher.

*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.

There are nearly one-thousand caveats to supply concerning the data here. Numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent or park. xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively. Stats are current as of Wednesday.

Big Ten
Top Batter
Brandon Lowe, 2B, Maryland (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Kyle Ruchim, CF, Northwestern (Sr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Brandon Lowe, 2B, Maryland (So)

Top Pitcher
Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois (Jr)

Top Starter
Kevin Duchene, LHP, Illinois (Jr)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	MPS+
1	Brandon Lowe	Maryland	So	2B	169	8.9%	.315	.364	10.7%	.211	.324	149
2	Kyle Ruchim	Northwestern	Sr	CF	138	8.0%	.248	.355	10.3%	.171	.322	133
3	Reid Roper	Illinois	Sr	2B	165	11.5%	.209	.345	12.7%	.158	.322	125
4	Kevin Martir	Maryland	Jr	C	146	11.6%	.205	.376	12.9%	.154	.325	124
5	David Kerian	Illinois	Sr	1B	150	13.3%	.220	.344	14.0%	.161	.321	124
6	Pat Porter	Ohio St.	Sr	RF	144	16.0%	.233	.351	15.9%	.166	.322	123
7	Carmen Benedetti	Michigan	So	1B/LF	144	9.7%	.191	.368	11.5%	.147	.324	123
8	Tom Marcinczyk	Rutgers	So	RF	149	10.7%	.198	.336	12.2%	.151	.321	122
9	Pat McInerney	Illinois	So	RF/DH	121	11.6%	.200	.354	13.0%	.147	.322	120
10	Jason Goldstein	Illinois	Jr	C	145	11.7%	.195	.308	12.9%	.149	.317	119

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	MPS-
1	Tyler Jay	Illinois	Jr	LHP	38.0	129	33.3%	2.3%	28.0%	6.1%	67
2	Kevin Duchene	Illinois	Jr	LHP	48.0	184	28.8%	2.2%	25.9%	5.4%	71
3	Mike Shawaryn	Maryland	So	RHP	62.0	236	29.2%	4.7%	26.7%	6.4%	71
4	Josh Roeder	Nebraska	Sr	RHP	14.0	52	38.5%	3.8%	26.9%	7.7%	74
5	Ryan Halstead	Indiana	Sr	RHP	24.2	101	30.7%	4.0%	25.6%	7.1%	76
6	Luke Harrison	Indiana	Sr	RHP	29.2	114	30.7%	5.3%	26.0%	7.4%	76
7	Austin Foote	Indiana	Fr	LHP	11.2	56	37.5%	8.9%	26.8%	8.9%	78
8	Thomas Belcher	Indiana	So	RHP	32.2	124	25.0%	1.6%	22.6%	5.8%	81
9	Alex Robinson	Maryland	Jr	LHP	15.0	55	36.4%	12.7%	26.2%	9.8%	82
10	Kyle Wood	Purdue	Jr	LHP	5.2	31	41.9%	12.9%	25.6%	9.5%	83

Notes
Maryland second baseman Brandon Lowe recorded roughly the same strikeout rate (8.4%) and BABIP (.371) last year as he has this one. The main difference has been a substantially greater output of power. Lowe recorded just a single home run in roughly 240 plate appearances last year as a freshman. This year he’s hit nine of them in just 170 plate appearances. The combination of offensive and defensive value are compelling. Illinois left-hander Tyler Jay appeared first among Big 10 players on Kiley McDaniel’s way-too-early draft preview last fall. Based on the numbers here, it wouldn’t be a surprise to find a similar arrangement this spring. That said, Jay has produced those numbers — with the exception of an early season start — entirely in a relief capacity. His teammate Kevin Duchene, meanwhile — another junior left-hander — has nearly matched Jay’s accomplishment while working as a the school’s Friday starter. Duchene features less arm speed, of course: recent reports place his fastball in the low-90s (where Jay sits mid- to high-90s).

***

Big West
Top Batter
Nick Lynch, 1B, UC Davis (Sr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Nick Lynch, 1B, UC Davis (Sr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Keston Hiura, CF, UC Irvine (Fr)

Top Pitcher
Kyle Friedrichs, RHP, Long Beach St. (Sr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Kyle Friedrichs, RHP, Long Beach St. (Sr)

Top Starter
Kyle Friedrichs, RHP, Long Beach St. (Sr)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	MPS+
1	Nick Lynch	UC Davis	Sr	1B	141	12.1%	.238	.421	13.9%	.158	.340	136
2	Keston Hiura	UC Irvine	Fr	CF	141	12.1%	.198	.409	13.9%	.140	.339	129
3	Brian Mundell	Cal Poly	Jr	DH	100	10.0%	.233	.324	13.1%	.144	.330	128
4	Izaak Silva	UC Davis	Sr	C	137	10.9%	.157	.410	13.2%	.121	.339	122
5	Andrew Martinez	UC Irvine	So	DH	76	32.9%	.388	.265	26.5%	.183	.326	122
6	Tino Lipson	UC Davis	Sr	2B	153	5.9%	.121	.346	9.4%	.106	.332	120
7	Kaeo Aliviado	Hawaii	Sr	CF	150	7.3%	.148	.275	10.5%	.119	.324	120
8	Davi Olmedo-Barrera	Fullerton	Jr	DH	121	24.0%	.226	.384	22.1%	.148	.335	118
9	Josh Estill	Fullerton	So	1B	127	17.3%	.195	.308	17.7%	.136	.328	117
10	Luke Swenson	Santa Barbara	Sr	RF	111	9.0%	.133	.375	12.3%	.109	.334	117

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	NAME	Team	YR	POS	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	MPS-
1	Kyle Friedrichs	Long Beach St.	Sr	RHP	59.2	223	33.2%	2.2%	30.0%	4.5%	64
2	Tyler Peitzmeier	Fullerton	Sr	LHP	23.0	100	32.0%	5.0%	26.9%	6.6%	77
3	Zach Stone	UC Davis	So	RHP	21.1	80	31.3%	1.3%	25.8%	5.5%	77
4	Thomas Eshelman	Fullerton	Jr	RHP	65.1	255	23.9%	1.6%	23.0%	4.0%	81
5	Dillon Tate	Santa Barbara	Jr	RHP	67.2	260	27.3%	6.9%	25.7%	7.2%	82
6	Rayne Raven	CSUN	Jr	RHP	52.0	215	26.5%	6.5%	24.8%	7.0%	84
7	Shane Bieber	Santa Barbara	So	RHP	66.0	266	22.2%	2.3%	21.7%	4.3%	85
8	Angel Landazuri	Riverside	So	RHP	45.2	184	24.5%	4.3%	23.1%	5.9%	85
9	Ryan Lillie	Riverside	Fr	RHP	15.0	69	26.1%	1.4%	22.9%	5.8%	86
10	Jerry Keel	CSUN	Sr	LHP	58.2	223	23.3%	4.9%	22.4%	6.1%	88

Notes
Finding praise for Long Beach State senior right-hander Kyle Friedrichs is rather easy. Finding reports on his average fastball velocity, more difficult. What one knows is this: he missed the entire 2013 season while recovering from a Tommy John procedure and then worked exclusively in relief last year (26.1 IP, 24 K, 6 BB). One find this, as well: that, while he’s produced a higher ERA than two other starters on his own team — junior Tanner Brown (51.1 IP, 2.10 ERA) and freshman Chris Mathewson (48.1 IP, 1.49) and — that the (maybe) predictive stats place him atop the entire conference.

***

Missouri Valley Conference
Top Batter
Paul DeJong, 2B/3B/C, Illinois St. (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Paul DeJong, 2B/3B/C, Illinois St. (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Paul DeJong, 2B/3B/C, Illinois St. (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Jeff Degano, LHP, Indiana St. (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Jeff Degano, LHP, Indiana St. (Jr)

Top Starter
Jeff Degano, LHP, Indiana St. (Jr)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	MPS+
1	Paul DeJong	Illinois St.	Jr	2B/3B/C	160	18.8%	.321	.436	18.6%	.217	.343	141
2	Ryan Tinkham	Wichita St.	Jr	1B	155	15.5%	.238	.423	16.3%	.177	.341	129
3	Andy Young	Indiana St.	Jr	3B	142	10.6%	.222	.352	12.8%	.167	.332	127
4	Chris Godinez	Bradley	Jr	2B	136	14.0%	.255	.313	15.3%	.181	.328	126
5	Kevin Kaczmarski	Evansville	Sr	CF	128	9.4%	.194	.456	12.2%	.153	.343	126
6	Drew Turbin	Dallas Baptist	Sr	2B	174	17.8%	.213	.447	17.9%	.168	.346	124
7	Isaac Smith	Bradley	Sr	CF	124	10.5%	.200	.382	13.0%	.155	.335	123
8	Spencer Gaa	Bradley	So	3B	62	8.1%	.232	.440	13.1%	.151	.336	121
9	Jacob Hayes	Indiana St.	Sr	RF	143	24.5%	.271	.333	22.6%	.189	.330	120
10	Justin Wall	Dallas Baptist	Jr	LF	169	14.8%	.181	.355	15.7%	.151	.333	117

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	MPS-
1	Jeff Degano	Indiana St.	Jr	LHP	60.2	244	32.0%	7.8%	29.1%	8.9%	69
2	Brandon Koch	Dallas Baptist	Jr	RHP	19.2	79	43.0%	17.7%	31.8%	12.9%	72
3	Matt Hall	Missouri St.	Jr	LHP	63.0	257	30.0%	8.6%	27.6%	9.4%	74
4	Chance Adams	Dallas Baptist	Jr	RHP	29.1	113	31.0%	5.3%	26.4%	8.5%	74
5	Brent Jurceka	Evansville	Jr	RHP	19.0	78	33.3%	7.7%	26.6%	9.7%	77
6	Jon Harris	Missouri St.	Jr	RHP	56.0	228	29.4%	9.6%	27.0%	10.0%	77
7	Bryan Young	Missouri St.	So	RHP	21.0	86	29.1%	5.8%	24.6%	9.0%	80
8	John Hayes	Wichita St.	Jr	RHP	25.2	110	27.3%	9.1%	24.1%	10.0%	84
9	Sam Tewes	Wichita St.	So	RHP	22.1	90	24.4%	3.3%	22.1%	8.1%	85
10	Isaac Anderson	Wichita St.	Jr	RHP	40.1	162	24.1%	8.0%	22.6%	9.3%	87

Notes
While they might lack the more notable talent and media coverage of other conferences, the Missouri Valley Conference currently features three of the top-10 schools in the nation according to college baseball’s RPI rankings: Dallas Baptist (No. 1), Missouri State (No. 5), and Bradley (No. 9). Not surprisingly, perhaps, those three schools account for 10 of the 20 players on the leaderboards above. Illinois State junior Paul DeJong, meanwhile, features probably the most interesting all-around profile among the conference’s players. In addition to having built on a strong sophomore year and recorded the leauge’s top batting line, he also has made a non-negligible number of defensive appearances at second base, third base, and catcher.