Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 1/28/2020

Meg Rowley: Hi all, and welcome to the chat.

Meg Rowley: Couple of things from the site to highlight. First, Eric and Kiley released the Tigers’ prospects list today: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-38-prospects-detroit-tigers/

Meg Rowley: Jay wrote about yesterday’s D-backs/Pirates trade: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/diamondbacks-add-a-full-time-center-fielde…

Meg Rowley: Dan has the Mariners’ ZiPS for 2020. Woof: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-zips-projections-seattle-mariners/

Meg Rowley: And Ben wrote about just how much baseball there was last year that didn’t end up meaning a whole lot: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-had-a-lot-of-meaningless-baseball/

Meg Rowley: Also, if you’re going to be in AZ for spring training on March 13, we’re having a reader meetup, so come hang out with us: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/fangraphs-phoenix-meetup-march…

Meg Rowley: The venue is not 21+, so feel free to come by and hang even if you can’t purchase a beer (a word to parents: I can’t think of much that would be less fun for kiddos and while our events are usually host to very nice people, they are adults who swear, so…)

Chris: Is there an approximate date for the top 100 release from you guys? I am excited for it!

Meg Rowley: Prospects Week kicks off Feb 10, with the Top 100 slated to go midweek.

Jason N: Meg – I think salary caps are great for MLB.  Before the salary cap, only the richest teams could afford the good free agents.  It felt almost hopeless being a fan of a small- or mid-market team.  I want players to get rich playing baseball, but I don’t want to go back to a system where Only the richest 20% of teams have a shot at a world title.  What do you think about a slightly higher spending cap and a meaningful salary floor (Closer to $100m perhaps?) to solve the economics problem in baseball?

Meg Rowley: I think the CBT effectively functions as a salary cap, and as we’ve seen, teams don’t need much of an excuse not to spend. I don’t think the answer to baseball’s economic issues (which largely involve young players not making enough, and profit and quality of on-field product getting decoupled) is to codify the thriftiness of some teams further.

Dongo Lewis: Can you talk to the Diamondbacks and make sure they use K. Marte and S. Marte on the backs of jerseys?

Meg Rowley: I… I think it’ll be pretty easy to tell them apart on the field? If nothing else, there’s a number right on the jersey.

Sodo Mojo: What are reasonable expectations of Evan White in 2020? Is a league average hitter with elite first base defense realistic in his first year or should the bar be lower.

Meg Rowley: ZiPS is more pessimistic than that, which isn’t surprising given how short White’s track record is, but the bat has definitely improved – White adjusted his swing, and he posted some very impressive exit velos last year (second highest in the system on average) – so if that sticks, it, coupled with the defense, might make those projections seem low.

Meg Rowley: Also just… look, I know it sounds weird to be super amped for first base defense but White is a lot of fun to watch. Plus, he’s a backwards guy – bats right/throws left – so it all adds up to a fun, weird-ass profile.

2-D: Where do you think is the best for Puig? Where do you think he ends up?

Meg Rowley: Boy does Pittsburgh make a lot of sense, which, given the brawls, would be amazing on its own.

Trevor: The Rangers have been sneaky getting Minor and Lynn, both putting up monster seasons. Now with Jordan Lyles and Kyle Gibson coming on much the same sneakiness, do you see a pattern in what talent they are evaluating, or do you see Minor/Lynn’s 2019 as more of an outlier?

Meg Rowley: My irritating answer to this is that we won’t know for a little while – I don’t expect their 2020’s to be as wildly good as 2019 but Texas does seem to have helped make some meaningful adjustments.

TomBruno23: Meg, are the Cardinals going to go in-house to replace Ozuna in LF and middle of the order? I guess so…

Meg Rowley: They have a fair amount of depth, and I think we’re currently projecting Edman out there a fair bit so yes.

slockwood: Do you think people are overrating the Reds? People seem to think they have a good chance at the NL Central, and I think that they could win, but I still feel like there are some glaring holes.

Meg Rowley: I think that most people see them as a team that got a lot better, and has the potential to win an even but not especially good division, which feels about right to me.

Kegs & Megs: Will Fangraphs be hiring any writers or contributors for the upcoming season?

Meg Rowley: We don’t have an open call planned as of now, but that can always shift around.

RIP: Fangraphs Audio

Meg Rowley: I’ve done two episodes already this month! Took last week off because I have a terrible cold and was coughing to a degree that made podcasting untenable, but will record this week. Consistency of posting is a goal, though, don’t fret.

Doctor Parrot: Which stadiums have a way worse in-game experience than they should?

Meg Rowley: In my personal experience, which does not encompass all of the parks, and which is specific to me, and with which you can disagree, and about which, you shouldn’t feel compelled to yell – I’ve always felt like New Yankee should feel more closely tied to the team’s past than it does. It feels like a mall to me. To me personally. A nice mall, but a mall. That is a personal opinion of mine.

Ben: How much of this year’s more robust free agent market is because of the 26th roster spot?

Meg Rowley: Roster flexibility certainly helps but was never going to really affect the dudes up top anyhow, so some, but not a lot.

Doctor Parrot: What do you think Haniger has left in him?

Meg Rowley: A fair amount, but jeez, the poor guy.

Chris: Hi Meg! I’m having a hard time enjoying myself at baseball games. The constant bombardment of advertising, between-inning promotions, requests to get your selfie on the scoreboard…it’s all a bit overstimulating. I just want to watch Tatis Jr. make his warm-up throws.

Meg Rowley: Yeah, it can be a lot. I don’t have a great suggestion to make – I know some folks who knit during games and the tactile experience helps them concentrate. Others listen to the radio broadcast to toon out some of it.

Doctor Parrot: Do you see MLB expansion happening within the next 5 or 10 years?

Meg Rowley: Yes, and closer to 5 than 10.

Tommy: Would the Dodgers or Padres benefit more from acquiring Mookie?

Meg Rowley: the Padres

Damian: Does Hanniger injury impact Kelenic’s timeline at all?

Meg Rowley: No, I don’t think so. Does give them a chance to see what they have in Lewis and Fraley, though.

Dave: Did you seen the Onion article about your Mariners?

Meg Rowley: Oh sure, now they’re my Mariners.

Arthur Kinney : How much did seeing the Mariner ZiPS hurt?

Meg Rowley: My fandom is pretty well dormant at this point. This sort of question always amuses me too – I wasn’t under the impression they’d be good. Not a knock on you or the question, just a funny thing.

JSDee: How much does fan apathy actually affect the bottom line for a team like the Pirates? If shedding $10 million from the payroll only results in $2 million less butts in the seats is that a win?

Meg Rowley: One of the game’s biggest issues is how decoupled profit has become from the quality of play on the field. It doesn’t not matter at all, but it also doesn’t matter as much as it should. One expression of that is a seeming indifference to attendance. No, I don’t think fewer fans in the door is ever considered a win? Though Pittsburgh’s understanding of that term appears to be different than mine just generally so…

Schmoo: On EW, you’re clearly on the side that you don’t want to learn anything about gambling (same) but that you’ll be forced to, due to your job. Do you think FanGraphs will really be missing out on something if you do not start covering gambling vis a vis baseball when the league instates it? Or does FG (which is just Appleman?) actively want to cover gambling?

Meg Rowley: We don’t have any specific editorial plans around it but as a site that covers baseball and the trends and forces within the game, I can’t be indifferent to it. But also, I profoundly would like to be.

Frank: What makes you feel worse? Your head cold or ZIPS projecting the Mariners WAR leader at 2.6?

Meg Rowley: My head cold. It has been extremely unpleasant.

Matt: (The following question does not condone the act referenced):
Over/Under 19.5 pitchers suspended for throwing at Astros in 2020?

Meg Rowley: under

Not Scared: Of some of the available SPs left, which do you think has the highest WAR in 2020: TjWalker, MHarvey, DSalazar, or AaSanchez?

Meg Rowley: Walker, then Salazar I guess?

P: Is baseball ever REALLY meaningless?

P: Or… more accurately, isn’t baseball always meaningless In perspective yet deeply meaningful… in perspective?

Meg Rowley: I think that the milage can really vary, but man, last September, I watched the Mariners lose to the White Sox… felt… pretty pointless.

Bearry: Does Zunino bounce back?

Meg Rowley: What’s that Lucy, a football for me to kick?

mt: Care to share an opinion on the Post/Journalist/Kobe story? It all seems unhappily sadly predictable to me…. The alleged sexual assault was always going to be part of the story, and big media was always going to be uncomfortable about it, and the journalist was always going to get harassed for mentioning it, and so it goes.

Meg Rowley: I think the Post behaved very badly, and the fact that they haven’t backed down is pretty disspiriting

Eddie Vedder: How do you see my namesake cup playing out this year?

Meg Rowley: I think I will enjoy watching the Padres wallop the Mariners in person.

Shawn: Pro-NL DH or anti?

Meg Rowley: I like the leagues being different – pitchers are terrible batters, but I like the strategy. But also, they are so, so bad at hitting. So currently split, which is a change from being strongly in favor.

Matt: What exactly would there be to “learn” about gambling as it relates to baseball, and similarly, what would there be to cover? Is the reference to potentially something like trying to keep up with daily posts on the Vegas lines? I guess I’m having trouble seeing how the introduction of gambling impacts much parallel analysis in ways that isn’t basically daily fantasy (which is already being done).

Meg Rowley: Part of what we cover is the business and economics of baseball, and this will most certainly affect that.

Jina: More Rachael episodes of fangraphs audio plz <3

Meg Rowley: Here here! Rachael is, in fact, the next guest, and has been wonderfully patient with the cold.

Justin Verlander: I… am not adding to how much respect I am given, huh?

Meg Rowley: The difference in posture between the Tigers and the Astros has been noticed, yes.

Meg Rowley: Verlander is an incredible pitcher and also, no one on that roster has had a greater answer for the banging scheme.

Meg Rowley: banging scheme

Brood550: When is the Bryant grievance going to be resolved?

Meg Rowley: Not sure – truly don’t understand the delay but not sure.

Sonny: New Yankee Stadium is an odd place. The concourses are wide, amneities are plentiful, but it feels really generic. Yes, the amneities are nice but it is too ‘the real NY is a Chase on every corner’ type feel

Meg Rowley: That’s a very good way of putting it. Some of it is likely that when I was going to games there, it was newer. It’s been close to a decade since I lived in New York. It may have changed. But it felt very antiseptic when I was there last. Which again, is my personal opinion.

Meg Rowley: Apologies, pals, my internet dropped for a second there.

Guest: Citi Field thoughts?

Meg Rowley: Have never been, which is very weird, considering I lived in Queens.

Fanny: What was your initial take on the Cano trade? Were you expecting it to be the tremendous success for Seattle that it has been to this point?

Meg Rowley: I was glad to see them make a decision about the course of the franchise, impressed they moved Canó’s contract, sad to see Díaz go, and excited about Kelenic.

Meg Rowley: Also, yeesh, imagine how much worse that looks for the Mets if they include Jeff McNeil

Matt: Is there a revenue stream from Vegas to MLB and/or teams as a part of the gambling deal made?

Meg Rowley: Still don’t think we know exact financial terms but: https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/25393195/major-league-baseball-p…

Lunar verLander: I get that there are extenuating circumstances, but the Astros interviewing 9 people for manager…seems like a lot?

Meg Rowley: I would imagine they are being very thorough and wouldn’t you be?

My name is Judge…: where are you best guesses for expansion?  montreal?  portland?  charlotte?  nashville?  san antonio?

Meg Rowley: Montreal, Portland, Charlotte seem like the trio most likely to me, and Portland already has an interested ownership group

Sam: Correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t Kelenic put into the trade in place of McNeil? As a Mets fan, I would much rather have given up McNeil than Kelenic.

Meg Rowley: the scuttlebutt was both were going, the Mets floated it publicly to see the response, and then scrapped McNeil

Robert: Ever go to Safeco TMobile for a game alone? Any tips for making it fun? Thinking of going for opening day

Meg Rowley: Very often, but I like going to games alone. Don’t feel like you have to be glued to your seat. You’re going to miss some action but it’s ok.

Jeff: Trade thought – who says no?  Braves receive Nick Stenzel, Reds receive Kyle Wright & Johan Caramgo

Meg Rowley: The Reds, I’d think

Brood550: With the extra rest from TJ surgery what kind of inning count are you expecting out of Kopech?

Meg Rowley: 90-100, but I think they will be very, very careful

Chris: Whyd the reds dfa Siri?

Meg Rowley: to facilitate bad jokes?

5 Run Homer: Do you think MLB should introduce a salary floor? The Pirates’ payroll is under the NHL’s salary floor, which is just silly

Meg Rowley: Have a floor, raise the minimum salary… you’ll find the list of things I’m willing to entertain to get players paid more earlier is pretty long.

Charlie: If the Jays maintain relative health, since they now have SP depth (7-9 warm bodies), does Nate Pearson break in as a reliever?

Meg Rowley: I don’t think so, no… All due respect to Matt Shoemaker, but no.

Pessimistic Cubs Fan: Can you say something to make me look forward to watching the Cubs next year?

Meg Rowley: You familiar with this Javier Báez character? Oh baby. And Kris Bryant? I bet he ends up sticking around. You know about him?

Meg Rowley: Players are always, always, always the answer here.

Meg Rowley: There’s always at least one. Maybe he’s in Double-A. But there’s always at least one.

Meg Rowley: Ok pals, I need to get rolling. Thank you for all the great questions, and sorry fo what I didn’t get to.

Meg Rowley: Hope you all have a good week, and stay well clear of this cold, it is… gnarly.